Dream Team Stock Market – R18


Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

There were plenty of Dream Team coaches who had a big weekend of scoring (no innuendo intended!), with 2200s and 2300s galore – great results all ‘round. There was some good footy too. The Pies/Blues showdown lived up to its blockbuster billing, while Freo surprised in Sydney without Sandi. Fantastic win to the Suns, who look like they might actually avoid the wooden spoon in their inaugural season – the future looks bright for the new team on the block.

The Shaw debacle has lots of coaches burning a trade to flick him for another premo defender, of which the likes of Deledio, Suckling, Broughton and Fisher appear to be the most popular replacements. Waters or Martin may be worth a look, with good runs in DT Finals. Let’s hope that no more of our premos are blown out of the DT market in the same manner, as we need our precious trades to cover real LTIs or to complete our teams.

Most stocks travelled pretty steadily, with no big surprises, but there were some disappointments, as tbetta kindly pointed out in the Bullets. There are a couple on the slide after below-average performances, giving us a juicy option or two to throw in the trading mix over the next few rounds. I’ve included the odd not-quite-so-premium name in this week’s analysis, as they have been mentioned in the blog chatter in the last few days. Anyways, enough small talk, let’s get on with the show!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Jake Batchelor $231,900 UP$1,700 (UP$139,400) BE30. Batch has been a fairly steady earner, albeit a bit of a slow burner. With a last two of 70 and 82 in his rolling 3-game average, his value is projected to rise another $10,900 after next round and forecast to peak after R19 at around $240k. He has logged lots of game time this season and may be worthy bench cover, but if you’re looking to build your bank, he’s just about ready to go.

  • Stock tip: Sell this week or next week and gain an excellent $140k-ish.

Luke Delaney $150,600 DOWN$700 (UP$58,100) BE58. Delaney has filled in adequately in the Kangas backline without really busting out as a cash cow. His value is forecast to dip-and-hold in R19 at $140k. He’ll drop by around $6,000 after this round too.

  • Stock tip: Offloading him this week gets you a fairly ordinary $58k, but his forecast value is not looking very promising.

Dan Nicholson $188,300 DOWN$2,800 (UP$83,900) BE62. A promising start by Nicholson has tapered off, with 43, 43 and 60 in his last three games. These scores have hurt his value, with a projected drop of $1,900 next week. Still, he’s been a fantastic short-term investment and is ripe for the picking. If you hold on to him, he should top out at $200k by R22.

  • Stock tip: A neat gain of $83,900 if sold this week, or monitor his value weekly and sell between $190k-200k.

Jeremy Howe $197,100 DOWN$13,400 (UP$104,600) BE64. The big fella has had two sub-standard scores of a vested 21 and 39, stalling his value growth. His projected increase this week is just $800 and his graph is showing a flatline at his current $197k until after R19. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back to his usual 70+ scores though, so he may be handy backup for his coaches.

  • Stock tip: If you want to pocket $100k+, sell anytime now.

Tom Lynch $183,500 DOWN$7,400 (UP$63,000) BE70. The Sun’s Tom Lynch started brilliantly with 95 and 92, but he has really dropped off with a last five of 48, 26, 58, 81 and 18. Such is the life of a key big man! A drop of $4,100 is projected after this weekend and steady growth to $200k+ is expected after R21.

  • Stock tip: Offload him now if a $63,000 gain is useful to you.

Brodie Smith $188,200 DOWN$8,200 (UP$79,700) BE95. That green vest really kills our cash cows! Smithy copped it again last weekend and only managed 13 points, effectively suffocating his growth potential. It’s a real shame as he’s put in 70-80 type scores, which are signs of a good earner. As it is, his value is projected to fall by $13,100 next week with a further dip expected, bottoming out at under $175k after R19.

  • Stock tip: Take the cash and run, banking a gain of $79,700 if you sell him now.

Danny Stanley $311,800 UP$10,400 (UP$205,400) BE61. The recycled Danny Stanley makes the ‘sell’ list purely because this is about the time to trade him out if you really need the dosh. However, his last five 93, 91, 90, 79 and 83 has matched or exceeded the recent output of most of our premium defenders! This will most likely have you slotting him in your D7 spot for the rest of the season – a real bonus for the 12% of coaches who have hung on to him.

  • Stock tip: Sell between this week and R19 to bank a whopping $200k+, but seriously, would you?

Dyson Heppell $314,400 UP$14,500 (UP$181,900) BE62. Compared to Stanley, Heppell is held by 47% of coaches, making him more popular than the likes of Ablett and Pendlebury! He’s also on the list because of the numbers – he is peaking (again). If you are concerned about his upcoming finals bye, his value has topped out and should stay steady after R19, which makes him a great stepping stone to a premium for just a little cash outlay. With good form and DEF/MID MPP, he’d be a hard one to get rid of.

  • Stock tip: If you want to cash him out at his peak, this week or next week is the time to do it to gain $180k+.

On The Up

Dion Prestia $216,700 UP$18,600 (UP$88,200) BE4. There’s no doubting his skills, but ‘mercurial’ can also translate to ‘inconsistent’ and Prestia has been a real yo-yo of a cash cow. However, a last two of 92 and 74 have got his stock value heading upwards, which is what his coaches have been yearning for. A couple more games of around his average will see him become a very bankable commodity, as long as he doesn’t crash and burn before he peaks!

  • Stock tip: With a BE of just 4 this week, he is forecast to top out after R19 at $240k.

Keiran Harper $144,800 UP$10,700 (UP$52,300) BE-6. Though steady, Harper hasn’t exactly returned big numbers, but his value is inching its way up. As long as he gets the opportunities, he should get his coaches a decent return in a few weeks.

  • Stock tip: Projected to rise $17,700 next week, peaking at $170k after R19.

Allen Christensen $243,800 UP$24,100 (UP$146,200) BE-2. Hmm… 25 Touches, 8 tackles and 2 goals but no Rising Star? Bit rough on young Al, but in the DT world that 120 has given his value a real shot in the arm. For his patient coaches, he will provide a great return on investment after two more games!

  • Stock tip: A big $20,900 bump projected next week, topping out at $270k after R19.

Andrew Gaff $171,300 UP$7,300 (UP$22,800) BE1. Mr Perma-Sub turned it on in style last weekend with a 104 against the Saints, showing Worsfold that he should be on the park instead of warming the bench in green. Fortunately for his coaches, his value will kick up sharply if he plays two more – here’s hoping!

  • Stock tip: Tops out at $205k after R19 with a projected increase of $16,800 next week.

On The Slide

Joel Selwood $402,000 DOWN$25,000 (DOWN$41,700) BE137. We were expecting Jelwood to put in a big game against the Lions after sitting out for a few weeks, but he only managed 70 with the tag of Andrew Raines. Sure, he’s got a DT Finals bye, but the value will be there for those wanting what is now a unique-ish pick. Add to that his pre-suspension scores of 108, 92, 116, 122 and 121 and you have one that may make your shortlist of targets.

  • Stock tip:Projected drop of $7,600 next week and forecast to dip to $390k after R19.

Ben McEvoy $385,900 DOWN$14,900 (UP$142,200) BE136. Coxy got the better of McEvoy last weekend, which is great news for those who are looking to shore up their rucks with a late season upgrade. With an average of 93 and no more byes to worry about, he could be a sneaky luxury upgrade for Zac Smith.

  • Stock tip: Projected fall of $10,800 and forecast to bottom out at around $350k in R24; he’ll be a great ‘in’ over the next few weeks.

Blue Chip Bargains

Adam Goodes $340,600 UP$2,900 (DOWN$52,600) BE67. The Goodes train is leaving, so jump on now if you want a 92 average, FWD/MID DPP to finish your forward line! He’s put in a decent run recently, with 89, 111, 81, 92 and 91. We know the Swans’ skipper will give absolutely 100% to win, which helps to keep his scores ticking over each week.

  • Stock tip: With a BE of 67 and only a bit above his lowest price of $331,800 this season, get him in this week.

Mark LeCras $323,500 DOWN$18,400 (UP$7,700) BE96. The Frenchman makes the list to satisfy the fanboys out there, who have talked him up as a potential unique for the run home, especially in DT Finals where the Weagles have Melbourne (Etihad), Essendon (Petersons), Brisbane (Gabba) and Adelaide (Patersons). If that tickles your fancy, then slot him in.

  • Stock tip: He has bottomed out, so this week or next week are best to pick him up.

Leigh Montagna $334,400 UP$17,100 (DOWN$130,700) BE60. Monty showed his form last weekend, racking up 17 touches in the first quarter alone. His last three were 124, 78 and 105, giving us a bit of confidence that he is back. He’d be a pretty neat fit in your midfield and this week is probably the last chance to get on at this price.

  • Stock tip: Buy this week as he looks to be on the rise.

In Review

Hopefully you’ve locked down a spot in the Top 4 of your league(s), or are making moves to shake up the Eight. Two remaining rounds of league games should have you executing the plans that we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, so you’ll have your upcoming opponents sussed, your shortlists sharpened and your trades marked out. Stick fat with your plans and keep a few trades up your sleeves for the sucker-punching ‘general soreness’ or gut-wrenching LTIs in DT finals time. Looking forward to seeing some big scores this weekend and, as always, make every trade count and good luck!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT

92 Comments

  • Great read and hope that it’s a high scoring round again.

  • Cracker article Tee Tee and invaluable at this stage of the season.

    Any thoughts on Zac Smith’s ability to see out the season? I’m worried if he can’t cut it then the McEvoy trade might have to go ahead however he seems to be steadily improving given his last 3 scores.

  • why would people want to trade heppell and stenley they are both in great form and there arnt any good backman that everyone doesnt have so i dont see how people would just burn a trade like this.

    • I did add caveats in my notes that Stanley is a solid D7 and Heppell is hard to get rid of. They’re on the list just because they’re peaking in value, not because all of their coaches should necessarily trade them out. Granted though, a few may take advantage of their value and upgrade them for minimal outlay, eg to someone like Fisher.

      • I see value in trading Heppell now, not only because he’s peaked, but because also as some positive thinking that you’ll be there on DT grand final day!

        • me too. i need to win this week to make the top 4 (going for a leagge win, dont give a rats about ranking) so am considering upgrading heppell to birchall (v gc in grand final) or fisher. but having trouble bringing myself to trade a good player for another just because the latters average is 9 higher.

  • Is Montagna a better buy that Scott Thompson (Adel)?

  • EPL is OPEN fantasy.premierleague wowowowowooooooooooooooo :)

    league: 6538-3148

  • Sorry to be a Complete and Utter Noob Today (ahaha)…but I need help.

    Gibbs Deladio Goddard Enright Broughton Suckling Stanley
    (Poo Hibberd Guthrie)

    Boyd Pendles Swan Mitchell Gablett Montagna
    (I. Smith Mzungu Evans)

    Cox Zmith
    (Lobbe Derickx)

    Goodes Sylvia Chapman Franklin Giansiracusa N. Riewoldt Prestia
    (Darling Howe Dalhaus)

    -$24,300 in the bank
    -4 trades left
    -6th of the ladder

    The dilemma is that I wanna secure a 7th premo forward by disposing of Darling and Howe whilst preferably keeping Prestia. Trading Darling to Callinan and upgrading Howe gives me a budget of $344,300. However trading Darling to Callinan and upgrading Prestia gives me a budget of $363,900 (still a little bit short of Fyfes cost).

    I also have the option of waiting another week for Prestia to go up in value.

    Any help would be greatly appreciated!

    • I’d definitely wait a week and upgrade Prestia to Fyfe. The alternative is to upgrade to someone a bit more unique. You’re going to need luck to win your league from 6th so someone unique although risky may just pay off.

      Melbourne and West Coast have a pretty good run through DT finals (Petterd & LeCras for example)

      I’d personally just wait and go Fyfe though.

    • You could choose
      Petrie – $306400 rnd 1 finals bye. b/e 78
      Harvey – $309880 rnd 1 finals bye. b/e 94, dpp mid/fwd
      LeCras – $323500 easy finals b/e 104
      Rioli – $339300 wait a week or two current b/e112, has he finished with his injurys?
      Missy Higgins – $326700 resurgent Dogs but can you trust her? b/e 88

      Food for thought? I like Rioli and Lecras,
      Or wait and hold off your trades, for they are gold and who knows what will happen ie Shaw!
      Stevie J $367600 b/e129

    • Can you limp into the finals and then trade for r21?

  • shoot… i need to keep howe and lynch for back up fwds… just in case…

  • whats ppls thoughts on having LeCras as the 7th FWD?

    he is projected to score:
    Freo- 96
    dogs-100
    tigers-92
    demons-103
    dons-107
    lions-100
    crows-95

    pretty good scores and could be the difference as a unique FWD…

    my FWDS: Johnston, chappy, N.Rewolt, Pav, Sylvia, goods, howe (t.lynch, richardson, gordon)

    • I’d rather Fyfe but LeCras should average 90 on the way home.

    • Seriously how much can you take note of the projected scores!!!
      Didn’t see it project Gaj’s 23 the other week!!!

    • i have fyfe in mids…

      the 7th FWD im looking at is
      Ricky Petterd, Petrie or LeCras

      • Petrie could give you 150 or 30.

        LeCras looking good

        Pettered 3 tons in last 3, you know you want to go him.

        What about Cloke?

        • Or move Fyfe to the FWD and get an uber premium in your mids.

          • cant move fyfe to my mids. i dont have a DDP on the bench to swap him with… :(

            might go your advice and look at Petterd

          • cant move fyfe to FWD*

          • Mate trade Lynch or Howe to Callinan, move Fyfe then upgrade a mid. You’re losing points playing Fyfe as a midfielder. So many better scoring options in the mids than the forwards.

          • Lol, what Tum Tum said 100% =D

  • I have 7 trades left and about $9k in the bank. Now that the Hawks have had the bye, I’m tempted to go on a Hawk binge (bring in Suckling, Birchall, Rioli). Am sitting second or third in all 4 leagues and already have Franklin, Shiels and Hodge.

    My concern is that although Hawks play GCS in the last round, which will give invaluable DT points in the DT GF, will the Hawks take the opportunity to rest players? Or will they not risk that approach with finals the following week?

    If I take the above approach, perhaps I should keep two trades for the final round to swap out whoever may not play (surely they wont rest more than two or those 6)?

  • @slappers… how many trades u got left? id trade t.lynch or howe to callinan then swap fyfe forward and callinan to mids and upgrade a mid to a premo

    • hey tumtum… i got 4 trades left and only 26,200 in bank

      • mmm risky i suppose. id probs still downgrade lynch or howe to callinan and upgrade a mid to a premo. leave those 2 trades for LTI’s. then at least u have that DPP link for back up

  • HAY GUYS

    Why can’t you play 4 emergencies, 1 across each line?

    • its all in the tactics!! cant make it too easy can they!

      • Yeah because picking a random late withdrawl is all down to skill…

        o.0

        • How much better would it be if you didn’t have to even pick emergencies at all – and your entire bench was able to cover multiple donuts, even across DPP lines? That would reward having deep playing depth and take out the sheer bad luck factor of late withdrawals etc etc.

          please answer me

  • Any one have a list of which hawks players scored tonnes v gold coast last time? Or know where to find it, would be worth a look

  • Most annoying posters this year and counting in no particular order…

    The Colonel
    Chappo44
    The Novice
    Albert Lloyd
    SunnyGrazza (whateva his name is)

    Feel free to add to this list…

    *Note I can be included if you wish.

    • I thought we were friends :((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((

      • We are Colonel, it’s like tkol – many dislike him because he’s arrogant,obnoxious and bigheaded (sometimes) yet his still my friend.

        • lol how did you use “he’s” correctly at one point in the sentence then wrongly switch to “his” at a later point.

          fuck that’s annoying

        • I would like to ad swanlow36/ Big V to the list. For: a) constantly asking what par score will be each week and for b) for spamming this site with links to his/her/shemale’s blog post. That is all, SH

    • soo will jed adockc????? play this week maybe????

    • Your posting has strayed from the topic – m0nty…. I mean Warnie will not be happy.

    • you forgot to add yourself and slighthawk to that list.

    • That w*nk stain Fast Eddie betts was top of the tool list for sure, but haven’t heard from him in a while. Also Phil Ken Sebben with his “please answer him” crap. Was funny the first few times. After a hundred or so, yeah, very lame. But then again so is his avatar….

  • What are the odds of Thomas – who has already had 3 weeks break this season – getting another break before finals?

    • Backl on Thomas now A.L.? Thought you’d gone cold on him.

      Thomas should be safe i recon, a lot of teams saying the first bye was not needed, but Daisy having R12 and 13 off he should play out the season IMO.

      Pendles another story. Hope he gets rested this weekend even though i have him. (leauge match up both have him and similar replacements). Better ripping the bandaid off now than waiting for it to happen in a finals matchup.

      • He’s like that ONE girl out of the thousands that you might think about over the course of say, a day, that you just can’t get out of your head.

        I’m right back on him haha

        • Also, there’s no way he would be dropped in Round 24 against the Cats which could decide top spot whereas there is the chance of a Mitchell, Hodge, or Shiels being rested against GC.

  • I am aiming to win the schools competition and it only goes to when the finals start i have a full team except for stanely and since stanely has a hard next three games i am thinking to go stanely to fisher leaving me with one trade but with a full team and 2 premium player on the bench to cover byes

    • Thanks for the update.

      Assume you want comments? So are you saying your comp ends at Round 20 on overall points? No finals?

      If so, could be a good move, but you may make more points by trading well for the multi bye round. If you have Lids/Adcock/Goodes/ROK you could ditch one or two of them and bring in premos who will play round 19 and 20. Thats if i have understood your comp right.

  • A little off topic but was unsure where to post the question.
    I am undefeated in my league and am looking at the possible layout of who i will face in the DT Finals.
    Am not exactly sure how it works but i imagine the first final will be 1st vs 4th.
    This has got me thinking as i feel the strongest team i may come up against is sitting in fifth position. 1 win away from 4th.
    This week I’m playing the team in 4th spot and should beat him easily.
    The team in 5th is playing 16th and will smash him. Therefore elevating him into 4th spot on percentage with 1 league match left in round 20.

    The dilemma I’m faced with is this:

    Do i throw this week and lose to ensure my biggest threat cannot make it into 4th spot
    or
    do i just go about my normal winning ways and risk playing him in week 1 of the finals.

    I have constructed my team with the thinking that i will win my first final and not have to worry about the geelong bye. But if i lose my 1st final i will almost certainly lose the second final with chappy, stevie J and Enright to cover.

    DT boys….is there any chance u can create an image of how the DT Finals will look? 1st vs 4th etc???

  • nice writeup mate!

    aaronbrunner5x

  • OK I NEED HELP
    this is my backline
    Gibbs,Delidio,Heppel,Lower,Shaw,Duigan,Pederson (Puop,Jacobs,Andreoli)

    I HAVE $93,500 in the bank and need to get rid of Shaw…
    What do ya reckon?

    • delete team

    • Was that meant to be “and rioli”???

      • He means Andreoli; Warrick Andreoli, a $80,400 Def/Mid from Saint Kilda.

        So you’ve got a total of 418k (93k in the bank plus Shaw’s 325k) to spend on a Defender, which will buy you anyone…

        You’ve already got a pair of premium mids in Gibbs and Deledio, so there are plenty to pick from; I’d go one of Goddard, Fisher, Birchall, Broughton or Martin (I’ve omitted all defenders with byes remaining).

        Personally I’d go Broughton out of that lot. But I’m assuming by the players in your defence (and correct me if I’m wrong) that your team is very incomplete (In the future, list your whole team and the amount of trades you have left so everyone can help you better) so maybe you don’t wanna blow your entire bank balance on Broughton. In that case, maybe Fisher, who is a straight swap with Shaw ATM.

  • Sell heppell and stanley. Sounds like a good call.

  • Suddenly I have a terrible thought: How many players are Hawthorn going to “rest” in Round 24???

  • Also, Birchall or God for Heppell???

  • What about Duigan, should he be sold?