Trading for Finals

With the chance to win the car all but gone for most coaches we find ourselves looking at our league finals as the road to DT glory for 2011.

I’d like to think DT’ers will have a few trades up their sleeves to cover finals byes and possibly one or two more for LTI’s. Conventional thinking has us saving these precious trades until the final few weeks of the season to relieve players with the bye week to week during finals.

The Problem

This is the scenario I’m looking at for finals, I assume most teams will have a similar dilemma.

  • Week 1 – North Melbourne bye – Rawlings & Petrie
  • Week 2 – Geelong bye – Chapman
  • Week 3 – Carlton bye – Murphy and Gibbs
  • Week 4 – Essendon bye  – nil

This means at least 5 trades to cover during finals to get the best team out on the park.

Sounds plausible and I’ve got a couple more trades in the locker for LTI’s, happy days…. But – what happens if the General strikes in Week 1? Or in a Prelim final? A cruel end to the 2011 season.

In two of my finals weeks I will need to be using both trades to relieve the bye so I have no flexibility to assist a niggling corkie, a SMJ knee or the dreaded General that may occur in what could be the most important week of my season.

The Solution ?!

Maybe we trade out our finals bye players now, get our teams set allowing us to use what little trades we have left during finals to put out spotfires as and when they occur.

I’m the first to admit I don’t really want to trade out Marc Murphy with the form he is in but at $443,900, I can get a Boyd/Pendles or Redden, free up some cash to spend on my next trade.

Listed below are some “underpriced premiums” and  it doesn’t really matter whether we think all of these players are underpriced or not – the point is there are some bargains to be had.

  • Riewoldt ($291,100)
  • Boyd ($419,300)
  • Slyvia ($304,700)
  • Shaw ($325,500)
  • Goodes ($337,700)
  • Pendles ($417,100)
  • Montagna ($317,300)

It’s not an ideal situation I know, but I think I’d rather trade on my terms now and get this issue out of the way as I’m sure the DT gods will dish up some unexpected worries come finals time which will need my full attention…

– Article submitted by Clem.

172 Comments

  • Is Jon Brown worth taking a risk on?? I’ll trade out Krak and he is very underpriced ATM??

    He has scored quite well the past few weeks..

    Thoughts please

    • Not a bad choice, but could possibly have his supply in the forward line cut off by Geelong this week, in the same way Petrie suffered against North Melbourne.

      • I could swear Petrie played for North Melbourne?!

        • Did you not watch the game?

          He is right. Petrie’s low score was mostly cause of North.

          • He said J Brown will be cut off by Geelong (the opposition) so logically he should’ve said Petrie was cut off by Collingwood. As a matter of fact, I did watch the game and North were bombing down the dishes end every chance they got. It was because of Collingwood pressure in the midfield that caused shit ball to Petrie and Collingwood also mostly double teamed Petrie

  • Players that I’ll be missing during the DT Finals.

    Round 21- Petrie (Qualifying and Elimination Finals)
    Round 22- Chapman (Semi finals)
    Round 23- Murphy & Gibbs (Prelims)
    Round 24- Heppell (will trade him out before the finals begin)

  • I’m only a second year DTer so for those who have played the game longer, how many LTIs should we expect, from experience? I have 3 trades for LTIs but is that enough?

    • What a stupid question??? Everyone’s team is different and you are asking ppl to predict who will get injured??? While ur there guys… There’s a big lotto draw this week… What numbers do you ‘think’ will come up?

      • I meant on a rough average. As I said I’ve only played for 2 years but people who have for 4-5 years may find that on average they have say 3 or 4 injuries during the finals period.

  • Great article Lol jk, seriously a whole article suggesting a possible solution could be to trade now rather than later?! rightio dttalk.

  • I am hoping to miss finals nd avoid the byes fro North, carlton, geelong and Essendon. As such I am trading in the likes of Harvey, Waie, Mooney & Lloyd.

  • Nth: Petrie
    Gee: enright
    Car: Gibbs, duigan
    Ess: heppel, hibberd

    Don’t have much to worry about in regards to byes. Is mumfy worth getting in for Zac smith as a unique/premo and alot of people have Zac and what does everyone think of browny’s recent form? Worth getting now for someone like knights, didak or lynch (GC)?

  • i got 4 trades left… and $23,600 in bank

    Gibbs in DEF
    Bartel in Mid
    S.Johnston & Chappy in FWD

    Bartel i can cover with Mzungu…

    any thoughts?

    • i thought about downgrading Sandi to the cheapest ruck. which will give me roughly $330,000

      then upgrading Duigan to Goddard..
      then upgrading Howe to ROK..
      Then upgrading Pedersen to Fisher..

      thoughts?

      team at the moment is:
      DEF: Gibbs, Deldio, Shaw, Adcock, Suckling, Lower, Hibberd (Duigan, Pedersen, Howard)
      MID: Boyd, Swan, Fyfe, Bartel, Mitchell, Hodge (Mzungu, Prestia, Irons)
      Rucks: Cox, Smith (sandi, Bailey)
      FWD: Johnston, Goods, Chappy, Sylvia, Pav, N.Riewoldt, Howe (T.Lynch, Richardson, Gordon)

      I want to go for a league win.. current spot is tied first but 2nd cos of %

      any help would be helpful…

  • Is anyone (me) thinking of bringing in ablett for cover in finals?

    MID : swan, pendles, boyd, montagna, thompson (after this week), curnow

    FWD: o keefe, goodes, sylvia, fyfe, chapman, petrie, higgins (rioli)

    RUCK: cox, ryder (smith, tippet)

    5 trades after this week

    thinking of :

    heppel – fisher

    puopolo downgrade

    curnow – ablett

    gibbs – birchall

    smith – sandilands

    problem is this doesn’t give cover for LTI’s

    what trade shouldn’t I bother with?

  • Hey guys, have only Petrie, Chappy, Stevie J and Gibbs with the finals bye but hoping to win first final and miss geelongs bye. So I’m a little down on trades but hoping finals byes won’t hurt too much so don’t mind using a couple more if it improves and strengthens my team. So I’m looking for people’s thoughts and any advice.

    My strongest team is as follows with only 4 trades left and 104.1 in the bank
    Def: Gibbs, Shaw, Goddard, Deledio, Broughton, Adcock, Lower (Hibberd, Jacobs, Golby)
    Mid: Swan, Pendles, Ablett, Boyd, Dal Santo, Hodge (Mzungu, Prestia, Callinan)
    Ruck: Cox, Petrie (J.Tipp, Derickx)
    Forward: Stevie J, Fyfe, Buddy, Goodes, Chapman, Sylvia, Didak (I.Smith, Lobbe, C.Rich)

    Need to finish the last spot in defence and am looking at Fisher, Suckling or Birchall but with Hawks bye and all 3 having fairly big breakevens I will probably wait for that. What does everyone suggest?? Thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

    • Get Suckling in next week, or wait three for Fisher to plummet in price.

      Only other thing I would worry about is a round 21 donut if you’re not trading out
      Petrie cause i’m not sold on Lobbe’s job security just yet.

  • Week 1: Rawlings, Petrie (cover with Hibberd/Jacobs and Z.Smith)
    Week 2: S.Johnson (cover with Mzungu/Howe)
    Week 3: Gibbs, Scotland (cover with Hibberd, Jacobs)
    Week 4: Heppell (Cover with Jacobs)

    Might trade one of the Carlton boys out in round 23 for Birchall or Shaw

  • I’m a relatively new DTer and suspect I may be missing a key piece of information but as I’m reading this article I’m thinking: surely you would want to make it worth your while and hold onto those finals-bye players as long as possible… I can’t understand why you would do a sideways swap right now?
    Even if you felt you had to trade now – wouldn’t it be a better use of trades to work on your bench coverage instead? In a best-case scenario a single backline upgrade (e.g. bench player to Shaw) could cover a team with Gibbs, Heppell, Rawlings, Enright and have them delivering some premium scores for the rest of the finals series with all those trades in pocket. That may be an extreme case, but even if you can cover 2 or 3 weeks with a single upgrade, why wouldn’t you go that way instead?
    Seems like there is a majority view here that finals-bye players must all be swapped out to a man, personally I’d be looking for better options and only going that way as last resort? Would be interested in knowing why people are starting from that position…

    • Exactly mate, 1 trade to cover 3 or 4 weeks rather than 3 trades to cover 3 or 4 weeks!!!
      Article to generate discussion, but most people would have been aware of this and set teams accordingy i reckon.

      • Thanks Blue Boys, thought I could be missing a trick here – I only have 2 such players, Heppell and Gibbs, and am planning to cover with an extra premium defender.

    • Yeah that’s what I’m doing with my backline. Heppell is currently a starter but by upgrading Lower to Goddard, I can have Heppell cover Gibbs’ final bye rather than sideways trading Gibbs and Heppell

  • Lads, I have a massive conundrum. I am a second year dter and after getting burnt last year I have held onto trades. I am going for league win and have 9 trades and 25k. My best team is:

    Goddard, Gibbs, Deledio, H Shaw, Suckling, Heppel, Adcock (Lower, Jacobs, Stanley)
    Swan, Pendles, Boyd, Mitchell, Hodge, Montagna (Hibberd, Prestia, Bewick)
    Cox, Petrie (Keefe, Moran)
    Chapman, Franklin, Sylvia, Stevie J, Nicky Roo, Goodes, Mzungu (Tippet, Callinan, C Richardson)

    I am thinking of hanging onto trades as I dont have anything pressing, but in the same way I dont want to just waste trades at the end of the season because I have to :s

    • Maybe downgrade Lower/Stanely to an $80 k player then DPP Prestia into fwd line for the Gu. Upgrade Prestia for a premium forward.

      • I would hang onto Stanley and downgrade Lower.

        I’d do the same and bring Prestia up forward and upgrade his fat ass.

  • i thought about downgrading Sandi to the cheapest ruck. which will give me roughly $330,000

    Duigan – Goddard..
    Howe – ROK..
    Pedersen – Fisher..

    thoughts?

    team at the moment is:
    DEF: Gibbs, Deldio, Shaw, Adcock, Suckling, Lower, Hibberd (Duigan, Pedersen, Howard)
    MID: Boyd, Swan, Fyfe, Bartel, Mitchell, Hodge (Mzungu, Prestia, Irons)
    Rucks: Cox, Smith (sandi, Bailey)
    FWD: Johnston, Goods, Chappy, Sylvia, Pav, N.Riewoldt, Howe (T.Lynch, Richardson, Gordon)

    I want to go for a league win.. current spot is tied first but 2nd cos of %

    any help would be helpful…

    • Looks good, although if you could trade Lynch out for O’Keefe, rather than Howe, you would be left with more solid bench cover.

      • thanks for the advice… hoping Lynch get more play from now til finals to get more $$$ for him when i do trade… fingers crossed

  • Hey lads, I have 5 trades and $97 200 left and my current best team is:

    Def: Gibbs, Lids, Suckling, Shaw, Heppell, Broughton, Adcock (Lower, Poo, Jacobs)
    Mid: Gablett, Boyd, Swan, Pendles, Mitchell, Nicky Dal (Hibberd, Prestia, Gu)
    Ruck: Cox, Z Smith (Browne, Curnow)
    Fwd: Buddy, Pav, Chappy, ROK, Sylvia, Zaha, Higgins (I Smith, Lynch, Harper)

    I am looking to make these trades:
    Lower -> Goddard
    Zaha -> N Voldt

    The first trade allows me to put Heppell as my 8th back for bench cover so he can cover Gibbs’ bye while I he can be on the bench for his finals bye.
    The second trade gets rid of Zaha who has a GF bye but is in great form. In saying that, N Voldt’s b/e is only 39 and has 91 and 99 in his last 2.

    How do these trades sound? Should I trade in Voldt this week or later? Thoughts would be great :)

  • ok. 6 trades left, my goal is the eliminator win. even though i’m inside the top 150 overall the gap is around 600 points to the leader, so it’s now massively unlikely.

    i need another premium forward and i’m pretty settled on travis cloak

    my question is whether i use 1 trade and upgrade rioli or use 2 trades and downgrade z.smith and then upgrade tom lynch

    going by average scores i’m slated to slightly lose my eliminator this week, but this upgrade will swing it in my favour.

    leaning towards keeping rioli and using 2 trades this week, leaving me with 4. of course need to wait for final teams to come out – it’s better if ablett plays but as my opponent has him as well we cancel each other out.

    (side note – my opponent is ranked 90,000 overall but his team is excellent and he’s still alive in the eliminator – weird?)

    • He obviously made his team just before eliminator started trying to go for weekly win. Cheating bastard

  • I really like the title of this article – trading FOR finals, rather than trading IN finals.

    As others above have mentioned, some people seem to think that the only way to survive the season is to make 4 to 6 trades during the finals series. Since they are going in with them, they are either going to use them in the finals or waste them altogether.

    To me trading FOR the finals meant building a kickass 22 and good quality depth as quickly as possible and trusting that structure will avoid donuts without needing to do sideways trades, and minimising the number of players who have finals byes while maximising DPP networking.

    I survived the multibye without a 0 and I had seven afflicted. This week I have 4 Hawks, well covered even if Ablett doesn’t play, and after that it is just dribs and drabs before my team is bye-free (two Lions and a Swan in the other MBR, but in three different parts of the field and all well covered). It is more likely to get easier rather than harder to field a great 22.

    I agree that players are more likely to get rested but how does this matter when it comes to trades? Are you going to trade out a player who is being rested for a week? It is another reason why you’re better off making sure your bench is solid than being scared to make a trade.

    The best thing about having an all-gun 22 is having Petterd, Mzungu, I Smith, Lower, Jacobs, Krakouer, Buckley and Lobbe sitting on the pine because none of them is good enough to make the field. Except when they are, of course, and then they are all usually pretty good.

  • A. Swallow for montagna, cooney, jack steven?

    • Would you seriously consider trading in Steven for Andrew Swallow………where is the benefit in this???
      Montags and Cooney have ‘some’ possible benefits.

    • This still amazes me, heres some stats too make sure you DON’T do it!!!
      Steven – high 104, low 45, average 81.2, 331K
      A.Swallow – high 138, low 68, average 96.5, 350K

      ??????

  • Looking for advice please – I’m a 1st year player who cracked the top 10k for the first time this week and my aim is now to stay there for the rest of the year. I’d be happy with that result.

    Here is my best side on paper at the moment, with 3 trades left and 45k in the bank:

    Backs: Gibbs, Scotland, Deledio, Goddard, Suckling, Adcock, Heppell (Lower, Otten, Nicholson)
    Mids: Murphy, Boyd, Pendles, Swan, Mitchell, Sylvia (Hibberd, Jacobs, Prestia)
    Rucks: Cox, Petrie (Smith, McCauley)
    Fwds: Fyfe, Franklin, Chappy, Goodes, N Riewoldt, Higgins, Didak (Mzungu, Lynch, Richardson)

    This week, I am tempted to shift Heppell to the mids and then trade him out for Montagna while he’s cheap. Sylvia would become a forward and Didak would become bench cover for the fwds and mids. I’m hoping for at least an additional 15-20 points per game out of this trade. If you take away Montagna’s 2 injury affected games, he’s averaging 101 this year, which is 20 or so better than Heppell.

    Does this sound reasonable or is there something else I should be doing with my squad? Thanks

    • I’d hold out just for the moment, as your team will be fine for the foreseeable future, and you might be needing to save those three trades. If you need a cheap midfielder premo, you could wait for Mundy to bottom out in price after he returns to the Freo side.

      • James, I hear you on the need to conserve the trades, it is certainly on my mind. Not sure about Mundy though, he is still 4-5 weeks away and if I waited for him to bottom out, I would be picking him up in Rd 24! I’d rather 7 weeks of Montagna’s scores rather than Heppell’s scores during that time.

    • I think Heppell to Montagna is a good move and I think it’ll get you more than 15-20 points a game. You get the difference between Montagna and Didak minus the difference between Heppell and Lower and the latter will be ten or twenty tops whereas the former could be 50 easily. The Saints have a dream run and are starting to fire and Montagna is very likely to produce consistent premium scores.

      I do not have Montagna and do not have room in my midfield but if I was looking to upgrade a midfielder I’d be snapping up Montagna right now.

      • I’d just save those trades if you’re not going for league win and looking to stay in the top 10K.

        doing those trades would reduce you to only 2 trades for the rest of the year.

        Noobie mistake right there

    • Thanks for your views, James Ingoes and H. Food for thought.

  • Hey Everyone,
    I have 4 trades and 154,000 in the bank

    Best Team is:

    Def: Gibbs (mid), Deledio (mid), Suckling, Enright, Goddard (mid), Heppell (mid), Adcock (Lower, Pederson, Retzlaf (fwd))

    Mid: Murphy, Mitchell, Swan, Stanton, Montagna, Buckley (def) (Prestia (fwd), Jacobs (def), Callinan (fwd))

    Ruck: Cox, Petrie (Smith, J.Tippett)

    Fwd: Goodes (mid), Chapman (mid), Harvey (mid), Sylvia (mid), Higgins (mid), J. Riewoldt, Mzungu (mid) (A.Johnson (def), Harper, McNeil (mid))

    For the finals I need to cover:
    F1: Petrie, Harvey
    F2: Chapman, Enright
    F3: Gibbs, Murphy
    F4: Stanton, Heppell (if i get that far..)

    I’m only a 1st year DTer as is evident from my shithouse midfield/team and a serious lack of trades. But I’m hoping to crack the top four in my league and make a run at finals for some serious bragging rights with my mates.

    I have a couple of trade scenarios that I’m looking at:

    A. Johnson -> N. Voldt leaving about 100k in the bank. This trade is pretty locked in just coz Johnson has peaked and N. Voldt has bottomed as far as he’ll go.

    My next three trades are the ones that I’m not sure what to do with.
    1: After Petrie bye Z. Smith -> 80K/ 1-2 game cheap ruck to free up 300-320K cash for 2 rookie upgrades to act as cover for premiums that will have byes in the finals

    or
    2: Keep the 3 trades plus 100K for sideways/ upgrades of premiums in the finals

    So far I’m leaning towards option 1 as that’ll allows me to keep my premiums that have finals byes as uniques in the games after their byes.

    Any opinions welcome,
    Cheers,
    Sven

  • Thought I’d keep it short and sweet lol

  • Should i upgrade Cam Richardson for Fyfe or A Krakouer for Fyfe?