Dream Team Stock Market – R15

Unfortunately our much-in-demand Aki has been sidelined for a few weeks with injury and commitments. Here’s the Dream Team stock market review for Round 14, which hopefully meets Aki’s lofty standards and feeds everyone’s DT hunger for trading fodder!

The Dream Team fantasy world got back on track with some good scoring last round, with plenty of 2100s and 2200s floating around. Most of our premiums scored well, 51% of coaches welcomed back the Great Dane and we saw Hawthorn cement themselves as our favourite DT-scoring team.

The DT stock market is as unpredictable as ever this week, with a few bargains to be had, but not many rookie downgrade targets available. I’ll have to refer you back to Chook’s Rooks for the down-low on the young ‘uns. The next few weeks are key to getting your team sorted for the run home if you haven’t done so already, so let’s see how the market is faring!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Matthew Wright – $253,300 UP $14,600 (UP $160,800) BE42. A very solid 99 against the Cats has got Matty Wright’s BE down to a manageable 42 and a projected price rise of $9,000 this week. He’s been up-and-down and is just about peaking, so you can move him on before his value hits the down cycle again.

  • Stock tip: A sharp $160,800 earner if dumped this week, or gain a little bit more coin and sell either next week or the week after the Crows’ bye.

Jasper Pittard – $214,500 DOWN $29,800 (UP $116,900) BE127. After tweaking his hammy in the first quarter against the Roos, young Jasper was subbed off for a measly 3. This really bombs out his value until it rolls out in a few weeks’ time after already dropping $29,800 over the weekend. He looks to drop another $22,000 this week, so cash him out if you need to build the bank.

  • Stock tip: Trade out this week, gains you a smile-inducing $116,900.

Zac Smith – $312,500 (UP $206,100) BE104. Here’s a tough one! The man mountain who has been filling in for the toe-trodden Sandi for over half of DT coaches is on a bit of a downward trend after a 66 and 74 in his past two games. This is one you’ll have to think through, as he has been playing well enough to maintain an average of 79 which easily ranks him in the Top 15 ruckmen who have played 5 games or more this season. But, if you have your rucks sorted and always intended on cashing Zac in, then now is about the right time.

  • Stock tip: $206,100 gain if you trade him out this week, but have a hard think about this one!

Chris Knights – $254,400 DOWN $19,500 (UP $32,500) BE105. Many of us expected Knights to turn into a keeper by season’s end, but his recent output has been pretty ordinary after a bright start. His migraine-affected 20 against the Doggies really hurt his value. While he is projected to rise to about $270,000, that won’t be until around R20-21, which will be too late for Dream Teaming.

  • Stock tip: $32,500 gain if you trade him out this week, but obviously frees up a boatload more with a downgrade to a rook.

Nick Lower – $281,700 DOWN $3,900 (UP $189,200) BE85. Lower makes this list purely on numbers. Most who still have him will be keeping him as a D7 or super-sub as he has been pretty productive of late, with scores of 73, 62, 79, 89 and 83 in his last five games.

  • Stock tip: He’ll give you a $189,200 gain if you dump him this week, but do you really want/have to?

Trent McKenzie – $274,100 UP $6,600 (UP $176,500) BE84. Going by the numbers, Trent has peaked, with a BE of 84 this week. His 49 against the Hawks in his last game (R13) stalled his price rises after an 81 and 102 before that. His projected value is guesstimated to stabilise at around $260,000 over the next few rounds.

  • Stock tip: A healthy $176,500 if traded out this week.

Shaun Atley – $195,500 DOWN $2,100 (UP $99,000) BE76. One of the more promising of this year’s batch of rookies, Shaun’s value chart has thrown a couple of big bell-curves and it’s currently on a negative slide. It’s a shame, but typically of a rook, he has struggled for DT consistency. He has only breached 70+ twice and has turned in quite a few 30s and 40s. His job security is excellent, having been given plenty of games so far, so they rate him at Arden Street. But if you’re chasing cash…

  • Stock tip: Gains you a not-too-bad $99,000 this week.

Buy, Buy, Buy (aka Fallen Premos)

Dane Swan – $391,800 DOWN $5,900 (DOWN $119,400) BE97. Swannie is back! Two weeks in the thin air of Arizona looks to have sorted one of our DT golden boys. He pumped out a 125 on the weekend, which is the sort of output we’ve come to expect from him. He looks set to run out the regular home-and-away season strongly. He has bottomed out at a tick under $392k, which might be the cheapest we’ll see him in a long while. With no more byes and a BE of 79 you’ll want to get on this week. Seriously folks, if you haven’t got him, Swannie will finish off your midfield superbly!

  • Stock tip: Buy this week!

Brendon Goddard – $338,600 UP $7,900 (DOWN $132,400) BE89. What can be said about this former DT god (Godd?) that hasn’t been said already this season? His scores have been as up and down as the Saints’ fortunes, but his last few games have shown that he looks to be back on form with a 56 (against Geelong), 119 and 111.

  • Stock tip: Buy this week or next week.

Colin Sylvia – $316,900 DOWN $300 (DOWN $82,600) BE95. Yes, he’s had a couple of quiet games since picking up a nasty corkie against Essendon in R11 with 74 and 78, but until then he has been one of the most consistent forwards. At $316,900, he is fantastic value.

  • Stock tip: Buy this week or next week.

On The Up

Isaac Smith – $210,800 UP $59,600 (UP $118,300) BE-73. How about this for a late-season bolter? After a promising start back in rounds 7 and 8 with an 89 and 59, Clarko put him away, which threw out massive doubts about his job security, before dusting him off and giving him a start against the Suns and Bombers for huge scores of 99 and 138! He has an excellent work rate and suits Hawthorn’s ‘possession footy’ tactic nicely. Great for those who got him on the bubble, as his BE is -73 and his projected rise this week is $57,000. The Pies game will be a good test for him and if he can score up around his average, he’s got ‘keeper’ written all over him.

  • Stock projection: A rise of $57,000 this week, topping out at around $350,000 by season’s end, but looks like one to hold!

Luke Dahlhaus – $124,900 UP $36,500 (UP $36,500) BE-47. Here’s one who burst his bubble last week with 68 to follow up on a 76 and 34. He looks pretty handy in the Bulldogs’ forward half and seems to have stamped himself in their best 22 as they look to get their season on track.

  • Stock projection: A rise of $35,000 this week, sell after R18 for about $200k.

Allen Christensen – $163,900 UP $22,800 (UP $66,300) BE-28. Christensen went nuts against the Crows last weekend, collecting 26 touches and booting 2 goals on his way to 109. His previous scores have been between 20-50, so that big ton injects some spark in his value-potential. He should get a run against the Essendon reserves this weekend and hopefully a game or two more after that to get his coaches a good return on investment in time for DT finals.

  • Stock projection: A rise of $26,000 this week, sell in R15-16 for $200k+.

Dan Nicholson – $172,500 UP $32,600 (UP $68,100) BE-16. Like Christensen, young Dan Nicholson has a 90 in his rolling average followed by a 60 to keep his BE down at -16, which makes him a decent short-term money-maker for those who picked him up before R13.

  • Stock projection: A rise of $26,000 this week, sell in R17-18 for $220k+.

Rohan Bewick – $165,300 UP $13,100 (UP $67,700) BE-14. We expected much from the mature-aged Bewick, but his AFL career has been as much of a roller-coaster as his DT scores. His last two games have been good, with 70 and 73. His BE is back down to -14 this week and his value is projected to increase by $21,000 as well. But will the roller-coaster ride continue?

  • Stock projection: Sell in R16-18 for $185k+, but keep a close watch on his weekly numbers!

Mitch Wallis – $159,400 UP $11,100 (UP $66,900) BE-13. Limited opportunities have stunted Mitch’s DT portfolio, but he’s come on with a 73 and 64 (against the Cats and Hawks), and a negative BE of -13 to start ‘mooing’ once again. If Rocket gets games into the boy, he’ll be good for a quick flip before DT finals time so his coaches can pocket some cash.

  • Stock projection: Sell in R16-17 for $180k+, not a great return but puts a bit back in the kitty.

Ben Jacobs – $188,400 UP $11,100 (UP $87,900) BE26. Take out his green-vested 25 in R13 and Ben’s scores have been pretty good: 96, 52, 67, 91 and 53. He’s burly and rated by Matty Primus, so should see out the rest of the season on the paddock. He’ll make a nice end-of-season earner, but given his DEF/MID DPP and job security, this looks like a stock to hold to give you cover in either line.

  • Stock projection: Sell in R17-18 for $230k+, excellent return, but provides valuable cover for the rest of the DT season.

On The Slide

Steve Johnson – $420,700 DOWN $34,800 (DOWN $27,700) BE190. StevieJ has been on an absolute tear this season, but his last scores of 66 and 72 are well below his average of 104. Good news for any coaches looking to bring him in though, as he’s projected to fall $26,000 this week and we know that he can hit the highs when he kicks a few goals. Only thing is his bye in DT finals, so weigh his trade-in carefully before pulling the trigger.

  • Stock projection: Will bottom out after R16 at around $385k, but will his DT finals bye make him one to avoid?

Leigh Montagna – $358,500 DOWN $45,000 (DOWN $106,600) BE183. You can put him in the same bracket as Goddard as far as his DT season has gone, although perhaps not quite as bad, with injury-affected lows of 45 and 51 in his last two. In his three games before that, Monty was actually scoring alright: 90, 151 and 109. He is a DT gun and I expect that he will want to finish off the season well for the Saints. He’ll drop around $33,000 this week and could be the final gun in your midfield arsenal.

  • Stock projection: Looks to be bottoming out after R16 at around $320k, which is an absolute steal for this DT jet!

Jimmy Bartel – $334,900 DOWN $21,600 (DOWN $102,900) BE165. Oh Barnacle, my Barnacle! What’s happened to you this season Jimbo?!? He’s been one massive yo-yo this year and his ever-changing role on the park each week has been a factor in his DT scoring, but this is one stock that could possibly make for a super-sub when he finally bottoms out. His Podsiadly-affected 2 against the Saints will make sure his value drops a bit more, so he’ll probably make the bargain bin in a couple of weeks.

  • Stock projection: His price will tumble this week by around $21,000 and bottom out after R16 at the $300,000 mark, which makes this a potential bargain investment, even as a super-sub!

Jed Adcock – $299,200 DOWN $39,700 (UP $36,700) BE136. We know how important the Jedi is in providing rebound for the Lions and I’m looking forward to seeing how he goes when he comes back from his finger-fix (possibly this week). Sure, his last three were 50, 47 and 57, but it’s likely he was given lock-down roles in the hope that his busted digit would come good. In his five games before those, he clocked up 118, 95, 91, 95 and 119. With a BE of 136 and a projected fall of $15k, we can sit back and watch his next game and if he shows us a good score, he’ll be a good pickup for the run to the DT finals.

  • Stock projection: Drops another $15,000 next game and bottoms out at about $285,000 after R15.

In Review

Anyhoo, there you have it, a few to watch over the next few weeks and a bit to think about. The DT stock market is a fickle thing and could easily turn on its head after this weekend, so you never know. We’ll just have to wait and see what the market brings next week. Don’t forget to put your Weagles on your bench for their bye this round and get your Saints back on the field. As always, make every trade count and good luck!

– Submitted by TeeTee

83 Comments

  • hands down the best article going around on this site

    • +1 – glad to see it back

      • I’ve been having withdrawal pains since it hasn’t been around. Great to see you back on board Aki.

        Never leave us again!!!

        • It wasn’t written by Aki… “Unfortunately our much-in-demand Aki has been sidelined for a few weeks with injury and commitments. Here’s the Dream Team stock market review for Round 14, which hopefully meets Aki’s lofty standards”. And it says at the end submitted by Tee Tee. But nonetheless good article :)

    • +1 does a lot of the work for me

  • here’s an interesting read

    http://www.fantasyfootyclub.com/dream-team/inside-the-top-1000-all-trades-are-off-2/\

    The stock market is one of favorite articles.

    • A very good read, doesn’t look promising for me (rank 112th with 1 trade remaining) but what blows me away is how 2 players in the top 100 still have 11 trades! Clearly they did their research at the start of the year…

      • Hang on there just a cotton picking minute.

        How does a random fantasy fan site obtain figures such as other peoples remaining trades?

  • A great read guys,

    Just one thing I noted (because I’ve been reading pretty deeply into Dane Swan this week) is that his BE on Assistant Coach is 97 not 79 (typo?).

    With that being the case I think I can wait one more round before I do a straight swap of Scott Thompson (399,700 & BE of 94) to Dane Swan.

    As great as Scott Thompson has been all year round, being a unique pick midfielder who’s averaging 107pts it’s hard to look past the straight swap between Swan and Thompson.

    Thoughts?

    • Definately a great trade. Swan has no byes and could win you the car.Trade!

      • Cheers TKOL,

        Thing is it’s my last trade, everyone’s telling me to keep it for LTI’s but I’ve got that “you’ve gotta be in it to win it” plate spinner attitude happening…

        Bringing Swan in just gives me more security with most other coaches also having him.

        Leaving my other “unique” picks like Birchall, Shiels, Cloke & Gilbert to help get me ahead.

        Heck, even Marc Murphy & Boomer Harvey are unique(ish) with about 10-12% ownership.

        • Good team Alex, Cloke will average 110+

        • either way you look at it you will struggle to improve from this point on. Even if you save your last trade you will only cover 1 long term injury. That being said you may as well use your last trade getting in swan because 1 trade is not enough for these last few rounds/ finals byes. may as well try and increase your lead further so it makes it harder for people to catch you.

    • BE of 97 in Swannie’s vital stats, but then wrote it out as ’79’ in his stock report… Doh! Proofing it 3-4 times obviously wasn’t good enough – good pickup Alex. That’s my slysdexia playing up! :-)

      As for the trade, Swannie is great, but Thommo has been pretty good this year. I’m guessing that you have a complete midfield and just want Swan for his potential upside?

    • If you have enough Cash to do the trade this week. Why wait…as its your last trade you dont need to have cash left over…

  • Tee Tee,

    You can really see how much effort has gone into this article, well done, you can considerer yourself a super-sub in for Aki. The Stock Market article is right up there with Calvins Captains and Chooks Rooks.

    Cheers

  • Fantastic article – absolutely brilliant (even better when you have none of the sells and all of the buys)

    Anyone know the whereabouts of a Mr Brodie Smith???

    • i’m guessing somewhere in Adelaide…

      but as for his position with the crows and selections unfortunately I can’t help you out mate.

      have you checked the crows website out?

    • i too have brodie smith stinking up my pine, not that fussed if he gets a game or not, would love a bit more cash out of him, and hes a good player

  • Great read mate I missed this article, I was hoping for a weekly one, I know some weeks there is not a lot to write about, but I still enjoy reading it. I thought my forward line was set but sylvia looks like a good buy now.

  • thanks

  • Haha, the slide people are all in my team, its a good sign I reckon.

    Hopefully they come good.

  • Best article IMO! Welcome back Aki. I am 1, 438 in the national rankings and down to three trades. Running my own blog on http://www.thisisafl.com

  • Does anyone want to go Skate Boarding with me this weekend?

    Gay style!

    • only if coniglio will be there.

      • How good will it be when there are 2 Chris Yarrans running around in the comp.

        • 2 sunny gazza’s?

        • Not good at all…I had enough trouble coping with seeing ED Lower’s name continually in the injury lists before I calmed down enough to realise that it wasn’t Nick but Ed all along. When is Ed going to be ready by the way? Top marks must go to the Garletts who are raising that Chris Yarran with a Dayle Garlett.

  • Appreciate the feedback guys, keep it coming – all helps to refine/improve the weekly article. I’ll post twitter/email details in next week’s article, but drop it in the comments if you are after anything in particular, or if you feel that something sux. :-)

    • If you wrote the article then well done. Very impressive reading. Its what I go through in my own head every week so its good to see it in writing!

      • Thanks mate.

        The great man Aki hasn’t been available for the past few weeks, so I thought I’d try to pick up where he left off – hats off to him, as he put a fair bit of work into these articles!

        • You did pretty well filling in mate. Plenty of good information without over doing it. Hats off to ya champ :)

  • +1 great article – nice and clear.

    Need some advice:

    I need to strengthen my backline.
    Currently:
    Shaw*, Godds*, Broghton*, R Murph*, Adcock*, Stanley, Lower, B Jacobs, Poops, waste-of-space-Magin
    * Keepers

    Have 5 trades left, but one these is going to be Jelwood -> Swan.
    Which leaves me with 4 trades and about $110K in the till.

    3 Questions:

    – who to upgrade: thinking about Lower (better high scores but a bye to come) or Stanley (no byes, but ?less reliable/younger)

    – who to upgrade to: Fisher, Deledio or Suckling

    – when to use this trade? I know 3 remaining trades is a bit thin, but my last 4 League rounds are against top 6 teams (I’m 5th currently). Really want top 4 possie going into finals. I have reasonable bench cover for MBRs and short-duration absences.

    • I would trade poo to suckling if you can afford it but I think you need to keep lower as your last def and stanley as cover.

      • i’d like to, but can’t afford that move. poop’s price isn’t high enough.

        ?wait if/when prices change enough to make the trade.

    • i too want to upgrade either lower or stanley this week for fisher, just cant deciede who to get rid of though, this is what i am thinking:

      Lower – league bye which is fine, probably a higher ceiling than stanley with all the injuries down at heave ho, 5 games left at patersons playground but play 6, possibly 7 top 8 teams

      Stanley – metricon specialist, always scores well there, also 5 more home games, JS is high as he is young and needs games, 5 or 6 games left against top 8 teams.

      i am leaning towards jim carey (anyone get that reference?)

  • If Sylvia gets another 70 odd this week, will that change peoples opinions of him?

    • yes it will. It means the people that didnt buy him in last week will wait a few weeks after his bye and pick him up even cheaper. From that point on he will then score more consistently.

    • he seems to be down when the D’s are winning :(, im bringing him in this week so hopefully he changes that around

      • shit forgot about the bye next week…hmmmm

        • Get O’Keefe or Cloke instead.
          O’keefe bye in non league round

          • makes perfect sense. hopefully scores poorly this week, then he has the bye, then 1 more week of a bad score will drop his price even further. Straight swap him in for harris in round 18 using some cash then dpp him to the forward line and use knights as an 8th forward/ play sylvio in the mids when there is a bye there. That way he will be byeless and cheap…

          • actually, looking at his fixture, straight swap him in for fround 22,23 and 24. Versing richmond, gold coast and port. Thats where the points are.

  • Does trading out Knights to Syvia have a bit too much sideways about it?

    Have 98k in the bank and looking for this to be my last trade leaving me 7 left for LTI’s and finals.

    My Fwd’s: Fyfe, Pavlich, Buddy, Goodes, N Voldt, Petrie, Knights (I Smith, Prestia/Mzungu, T Lynch)

    • Well, considering Sylvio started the season priced as a premium one could argue that no, it’s not sideways.

      But over the last 5 weeks Sylvia is averaging a measly 76 and Knights a decent 62 so on current form it looks sideways.

      Well done on having 7 trades left for finals, will Sylvia be your 7th or 8th forward?

      • Looking at Sylvia as 6th, Petrie as 7th and Isaac Smith or Mzungu eigth as needed.

        My other worry is Riewoldt but I think I will just have to suck that one up. Would consider trying to swap him to Stevie J or Chappy if possible for the semi and GF.

  • What does everyone think about what FWD I should trade in between Cloke, Buddy or O’Keefe? Cloke is hot over the last 3, but not as consistent as the other two, and Buddy has more capability to score big, but O’Keefe is really consistent.

  • I’m putting my balls on the line here but prease consider Gia, averaging 100 over the last 5 rounds.

    • yeah sure, next person you will tell us to consider trading in will be riewoldt coming off the bye.

  • @ TeeTee

    Nice, well put toghether writeup mate, well done :)

  • who remembers this?

    Fremantle
    B: Dylan Roberton, Antoni Grover, Greg Broughton
    HB: Justin Bollenhagen, Luke McPharlin, Jay van Berlo
    C: Garrick Ibbotson, Paul Hasleby, Clancee Pearce
    HF: Byron Schammer, Steven Dodd, Michael Walters
    F: Ryan Murphy, Michael Johnson, Matthew de Boer
    Foll: Kepler Bradley, Nick Suban, Paul Duffield
    I/C: Clayton Hinkley, Rhys Palmer, Jesse Crichton, Zac Clarke
    Emg: Des Headland, Ryan Crowley, Tim Ruffles

    In: Dodd, Murphy, Palmer, Hinkley, van Berlo, Pearce, Bollenhagen
    Out: Matthew Pavlich (soreness), Adam McPhee (soreness), Roger Hayden (soreness), David Mundy (soreness), Stephen Hill (soreness), Anthony Morabito (soreness), Nathan Fyfe (soreness)

    Im calling it early but we are fucked.

  • Yeh, don’t get what your trying to say..??? Explain??

  • didnt that happen with a few other teams as well last year? st kilda being 1!

    • Yes, but the Saints has the luxury of a secured top 4 finish at that stage. This year they have to play their best 22 each week if they want to have any chance in making the finals, so theres no chance that the saints will rest players. Watch out for geelong and Collingwood though. Geelong are already doing it, but Malthouse has suggested that he will start giving youngsters a run within the next 2 weeks to make sure hes getting some experience into them, which could see a few big name pies given a break

  • Guys, I need an opinion or I’m going to cop a donut!!!

    I am trading out Duigan for who? I’ve got $346,000 left but I am aiming for under $300,000, I’m choosing between Gram, or Silvagni.

  • Sandi- mcevoy

    Adcock- Fisher

    Thoughts?

  • Fantastic work TeeTee. Thanks for the Chop out. Been needing it!!
    Done the DTSM a good justice today.

    Will get hold of Warnie and try and be in touch…

  • Should I trade Watson to Hodge/Dal Santo or keep him?
    Bench cover is not the issue. The issue is that I only have 4 trades left…
    Need to make a decision before lockout!

    • Firstly, get your hand off it!! The trade button that is…..ha ha ha!!?
      Time to go balls and all. Downgrade and use the remaining to upgrade for the coming 10 weeks you fu%^ing loser!!!!!!!!!!!!
      What I mean by that is good luck….

  • Getting in Suckling this week. I can straight trade from either Lower or Hibberd ($300 short of trading Puopolo to Suckling.

    So between Lower and Hibberd:
    J/S: Lower > Hibberd but Hibberd seems fairly set.
    Price: Trading Lower out would give me an extra 40k
    Avg: 73 v 72 to Lower (76 v 71 in last 4)
    DPP: Hibberd can slot into midfield but I also have Jacobs and plenty M/F options (Krak, Gu, I.Smith, Prestia)
    Other: Hibberd bye for GF

    Whoever I leave in will be 7th defender this week then 8th choice after that (Fisher in for Poop/Buckley next week).

    I’m leaning towards trading Hibberd – any thoughts?

    • Are you going for league win? Then Hibberd, as you said ess have GF bye. Lower’s bye is in multi bye round with no league fixtures..

      • Yeah going for the league. Traded out Hibberd in the end. Thanks.

        Also, no idea on your Adcock Q below. I didn’t have him alll season so I’m not looking to get on board now.

  • Do people think Adcock will get back to his ~100ave from this week on?

    He did score in the 50/60’s in last 3 games leading up to injury, and he may have been carrying the injury through those last few games, but what about Brisbane’e game style? maybe they are ‘taking more chances’ and running it out of defence not chipping it around defence where I think Adcock got a fair bit of ball..

  • Looking at down grading sandi this week, but not too keen on Lobbe.

    Noticed Adelaide are playing Moran this week,
    and Hawks are playing a lad called Luke Lowden.

    Any one know how these two have been playing in the two’s.
    I know Moran scored about a 78 ave last four of 2009.
    will be to cover cox this week so js not a big issue.