Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 14

Oi Oi Argggg – welcome back to where you will once again get the best DT captains advice in the land. My name is Calvin, and I am an Irish Pirate who always delivers the goods… if you listen! Now, I won’t go on and brag about how good I am or how good looking I am in my pirate hat and patch. But you do need to listen people… that’s why you are here. I speak you listen! Let’s get in there and find out what rippers I have for you this week. Enjoys me hearties.

Swan Vs Swans (to be tagged by Bird?)

Ha ha you like that? It just might happen! Stick with me, it might get a little confusing, especially for you dumbshits out there. Firstly, with all the eyes on Dane Swan’s return this week, I am tipping a huge game from him against the Swans this week at ANZ Stadium. Swan had 110 on the Swans last year and has scored 4×100+ scores on them in his last 5 games. Yeah his form has been poor before he left with 1×100+ games in his last 5 but this week he is at ANZ where he smashes it. In his last 3 games there, Swanny has scored 110, 127 and 130.

Now, last week when the Blues played Sydney, Bird tagged Judd and held him to 23d (85) and the Swans let the other boys run around doing as they please. Marc had 129 and Gibbsy had 127, so what will happen this week, fingers crossed Swanny is left alone! You could never go him captain after running the hills of Arizona for 2 weeks, but I’m tipping Swanny to be back to his best this week.

Bounce Back Boyd


Let’s think back to round 3 this year, when the Suns played the Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium. During this game, Boyd (who wasn’t tagged) ran-a-muck and scored a huge 125pts (36d). Last week, the Suns played the Hawks and allowed 9 of them to crack the 100 mark at Aurora Stadium in Tassie. This means what it usually means… the Suns will give the Dogs a truck load of points and a bloke like Matty Boyd will cash in.  Now, he did only have 70 last week, which will put several guys off, but you must look past this. Even if you had him captain (and didn’t listen to where I ranked him on the top 5 list), you must set your anger aside and seriously consider this jet this week.

But how do travelling superstars score at Metricon Stadium? Great question mate, and I will answer … so check this out

Travelling Guns @ Metricon

Carlton Rd. 2 – Gibbs 144*, Marc 129, Judd 123
Melbourne Rd. 4 – Sylvia 132*
Brisbane Rd. 7 – Don’t have any guns
Geelong Rd. 10 – Stevie J 171*, Selwood 116, Chapman 95, Bartel 67
Kangaroos R.12 – Harvey 138, Swallow 88
*game top scorer

So there you have it. Most of the big name guns in the league, get it done at Metricon and the ones who don’t obviously aren’t trying. Boyd already has 125 on the Suns this year and will surely replicate what other guns have done before him Metricon.  Boom boom Boyd will be awesome.

Don’t Pick a Pendle-berry

Oh man, it will be risky if you do and it might give you the shits all weekend! The Swans are Pendlbury’s worst team to score DT points on by a mile and with just 1×100+ score against them in his career of 9 games, you can clearly see why. He had just 79 on them in 2010 which happened to be his 2nd lowest score for the year. Big time risky (similar to Boyd last week), and although you can never write off guns like him, you need to find something a little safer.

Ohhh Ab –alettt

His form has been amazing. Ablett had 34d and 8m last week for his 135 and you can add that to the 146 and 132 he had in the weeks prior to that. He is averaging 138 in the last 3 rounds and finds himself back on his home ground this week where he scored 146 there in his last game there (Vs Kang). When the ‘Little Master’ played the Bulldogs in Rd. 3 this year, he racked up 34d and 6t for 115. He did this in a 70pt loss and with a Picken tag. This is nothing new for Gary as Picken usually tagged him at Geelong. Whilst at Geelong, Gary had scores of 143, 103, 125 and 116 on the Dogs since 2009. His form is mad and Garry is untaggable… and he has to be my #1 pick this week. Go get em Gazza!

226 Comments

  • if Bartel is out this week im thinking of bringing in Ablett for him. this concussion thing worries me a little, you never know what will happen….he might get side effects for weeks…look at Scott Stevens, he has headaches and nausea everyday pretty much, even though it will get back to 100% the timeline is unknown. Cant deny Ablett on his form lately..was always gonna go bang eventually.

    • plus the other reason is that i have Chapman, Bartel and Stevie J and come finals that will hurt me having 3 premos on the bench.

      • If you got the trades spare do it. He could also go forward again when Jelwood comes back.

        • Yeah that’s what I was thinking, if he’s in the mids he’s got more of a chance of getting belted in the head again and concussed (although in the fwd line he’s in Jpods zone though…haha). So I don’t think they’ll take that risk again for a while

      • Thinking of doing the exact same. Bartel -> Ablett

        Going for league and have a bucket load of trades left. Bartel has not being playing in the guts, not sure why but he seems to be fwd or back for the majority of the game now.

        Look forward to picking up Bartel as a DPP FWD/MID next year at a discounted price due to the double sausage.

    • I’m with ya, im just 3k short of that trade :( nobody is ripe to cash in either. Well I guess bewick to callinan is my best option. Need one more def upgrade too

  • does anyone know how much heppel is expected to drop this week?

    • well he has a BE of 123 so if he scores around 70 he will drop around $20,000 approximately

      • Incorrect

        Heppell has a BE of 111 from assitant coach but I’d still back him to drop between 10K and 25K this week.

        Thing is, I need him on field or I’ll get a donut coz I want to trade him to Fisher and not Lids or Shaw.

        I’ve still got 250K so I can probably afford to write the 25K off in favour of a 50-60 which may be the difference between winning and losing this week.

        • well you can blame freako for my error as his imformation says heppel has a BE of 123. but who cares he will drop around 10-20k

        • Same but I do have Stanley & Poo to take the chop if Heppell drops too much. Depends on how badly he wants that spot haha!

  • @ The Unemployed

    Wasnt it a fantastic win on the weekend. It was fantastic watching the boys stand up for the first time this season. I hope we rest Goldy this weekend so he’s right for the saints.

    • Simon great news that Sandi is a certain starter this weekend isn’t it!!! ohhhh wait…hang on you still think he’s 1,2,3 or 4 weeks away. Luckily you have the powerhouse Smith to back up Cox for the rest of the year…oh dear me there goes your Toyota!!!

    • i love north melbourne, i was really up and about after the win last week. I hope they make top 8 and hopefully knock out SYD or HAWKS in the first round!

      • Wishful thinking…..verging on dreaming!!

        • How so Brap?

          We are the best side sitting out of the 8 ATM. Went down to the Eagles by 4 Points then Sydney by 1 point. We are alot closer to a finals birth then you realise my friend.

          You will eat those words come finals time.

          Regards

          The Unemployed

          • Well I hope for your sake (and the other 11 supporters OZ wide) that you do make the 8. IMO the Saints are the best side out the 8 – sleeping giant.

          • Saints are done my friend.

            Lenny is their best clearance player no one to fill the void.
            St Nick has fallen from grace.

            Saints are done

            Regards

            The Unemployed

          • Agreed about Lenny, however Nick is out of form – something he can regain. Like you said “you will eat those words come finals time”. Time will tell…..and I actually don’t mind Nth Melb. By the way I’m a Crows man (so I can look forward to a wooden spoon battle lol)

          • lol at you thinking saints are gone, they are having their worst season in 5 years and will stay make the 8 over north. to add insult to injury, riewoldt has walked all over north recently, this team will awaken the sleeping giant.

            regards,

            the bdiesel

          • @ B Diesel

            I dont think North will play finals. I think we are improving out of sight, playing alot of youngsters who are getting better every game. As for the saints its just 3 or 4 that carry a side for of mostly spuds. Ahhh Saint Kilda another Era wasted, maybe if they spent their spare time concentrating on footy instead of playing with school girls then things might of been different!
            Enjoy your future in Frankston !

    • @ TKOL

      Definatly our best win of the year. I think we shouldnt have to much trouble with Port this week. Then onto roll the Saints the week after.

      I think we will make the 8 and hopefully play the Eagles over here at Subi. I think the young Eagles will crumble under the pressure of a final.

      Im heading over to Melb in July for a couple of games Vs Brisbane then Vs Carlton the following Friday. Cant wait to get over there.

      Regards

      The Unemployed

      • Those “young Eagles” who have won a GF like Cox, Kerr, Embley etc. have more finals experience than the Roos.

        • They are the old Eagles champ. I was talking about the young Eagles. Or can you not read?

          Regards

          The Unemployed

      • @ The Unemployed.

        We should finally smack Brisbane after years of close finishes. The Carlton game will not be as enjoyable as last season, but Carlton better be ready for some hard inside football.

        • the game against the bombers was great last week,

          I enjoyed celebrating and watching the disgruntled Essendon fans leave the stadium early.

          It’s great to see the roo boys with a percentage above 100! That’s a first in a long time, hopefully they can keep it above the 100 mark for the rest of the year.

          • @ Allstars

            Agreed. They were ferocious the Bombers fans, it was amazing! My group of mates had heaps of fun sending their fans home with an earful!

          • Considering the bombers were who prevented us from getting into the finals last year it was a sweet victory, one which I celebrated for hours after at the Royal hotel.

            Resting Goldy this week will be fine as long as our part time rucks don’t get injured in the process.

            Petrie and Pedersen have proven to both be very valuable big men this year and we need them to get us up into the top 8.

        • @ TKOL

          I can not wait, i have never been to Melbourne so I am really looking forward to it.

          Regards

          The Unemployed

  • I remember earlier in the year Boyd pumped out some crap 70’s score then scored something in the 140’s the following week!! Hoping history repeats and have put the C on him. Still in the eliminator so don’t want to get this wrong.

  • @ Brappin

    I can feel the stess of Jacobs Crew as The Kings look up and the top of the straight.
    Nothing wrong with Smith’s contribution thus far, lets see what Sandi produces this weekend “IF” he plays.

    • lol I just want some match fitness into Sandi so after the Freo bye he goes BANG… 8weeks x 120+ :)

      • You dont think I will have him after the Freo bye if he looks good?
        Come on matee!!

        • Geez you must save at least a couple trades Simon!!

          • 7 Left. but my team is finished at I have plenty of depth. Not quite Jacobs crew but it has its strengths!

          • I think theres prob 4/5 teams in the “tkol challenge” league that will go far this year. Should stay in the top 20 all year.

  • Anyone heard anything on Bartel’s brain?

    • nothing since the article on AFL.com.au, we’ll have a good idea in 3hrs time, it can’t come any sooner i tell you!

    • Good brain or not i was considering trading him anyway his scores have been a joke. He is no longer a premiuim mid.

  • Ratten’s just confirmed that Duigan is out with a calf injury. At least that solves my should I play Duigan, Stanley, Poo question.

  • The Herald Sun. There is no more reliable or credible source of the Truth than News Ltd. They are fearlessly devoted to the pusuit of the Truth, and the Truth – in this instance – is Duigan out this week.

  • Does any one know what guns score against the weagles?

    • Most likely cop a vest but hooray! Tough gig first game though

      • Baptism of fire would probably appeal to him – he’ll probably love running out on the park against tough opposition. Good on him, hope he gets a start. :-)

        • +1
          Totally agree, he’ll show some of the young Crows what tough footy is (hopefully)

    • Lynch to Callinan in 3 weeks!

      Last downgrade done!

      Yay!

  • Does anyone know if Heppell will go up in price again, like if he gets a 100 or something, will his breakeven go down?

    • His BE is 111 so if he gets 100 his BE will go up.

      • Oh, i thought it the formula was different if you were a rookie, like when curnow got 95 when hes breakeven was in the 130s and the breakeven went down to about 40 or so

        • Nah it’s no different, maybe you read the BE wrong or got it from an unreliable source (Fanfooty, Freako).

      • If he scores 100 his BE will come down significantly… 3 game rolling average.. So if Heppell was to go 80, 80, 100 in his next three games his BE will be lower and his price will begin to rise accordingly as his last two lower scores will have been dropped out of his rolling average…

        You claim to be a DT guru Albert and constantly pot people on here….

        • You are correct in what you said but the formula doesn’t change wether you’ve played 4 games or 200 games.

      • So if he scores 100 and his BE is 111 his price will drop but his BE will likely will be lower next week Albert ??

        • Thanks guys, and i love the name fast eddy betts mate, we all enjoy a bit of navy blue magic.
          Knowing this i will probably keep heppell in the side

          • Especially if you have Duigan too… will be out for a couple I’d say.

        • I do my own calcs. I have current Heppell BE of 117.

          If he gets his average (79) this week, price will fall about $13k, BE next week will be about 84, still above his average.

          If he scores 100 this week, price will fall about $6k, BE next week will be about 68.

          NB: There is no definitive answer to these questions though. The magic number (future constant) in the formulas has to be estimated (or guessed). It isn’t known until the end of the next round.

      • tom lynch’s BE LAST WEEK = 95
        he scored 80 so does his BE go up? NO
        THIS WEEK BE = 30

        heppell’s BE is 111 if he scores 80 his BE will be 76

        • but this is captain talk
          and last week I was very pleased with Calvin’s #1 so i will be more than happy to go with his #1 again
          smash it SMJ

    • People are dumb. Three week rolling average, so obviously you have to consider the three week average but also next week you need to think about the score exiting the 3week rotation. If a player scores 150-100-50 compared to 50-100-150… Think about the oldest score in predicting next weeks BE.

  • l have the choice of swan, pendles, michell, thompson, ablett and boyd for captain

    …..and its yyyyyablett for mine this week :)

    • I’m doing the same, and in my team Ablett’s the last midfielder on my field… It feels so wrong captaining your 6th midfielder but he’s the inform man.

  • nice to see the teams are out on time this week!

  • Callinan named in the forward pocket, that’s going to make things interesting for DT coaches who have had him on their radar…

    is anyone bringing him in?

  • IM GONNA BE CRAZY AND PUT SWANNY AS CAPTAIN THIS WEEK…..

  • Yeah defs going with ablett this week, found another captains review here

  • yeah i was disappointed in boyds effort last week, but i hope that gaz will carve it up again