The Long Road Home: Forwards

The Long Road Home: Forwards

In the last of four articles on the long road home, I look at the Forwards. Those annoying guys that will score huge points one week, followed by a dismal effort as they sit in the forward pocket and have a cry that people play too rough. It’s the moment we’ve been waiting for, where the age old question will be answered. Is Adam Goodes really the last half of the season machine everyone says?

So, which of your players will come home strong, and who should you be looking at to fill out your team?

Bradburys

The guys who come home strong.

  Ave for Rounds 1-11 Ave for Rounds 12-22 Difference
A Goodes 92 111 +19
C Sylvia 89 105 +16
A Didak 93 107 +14
L Franklin 83 95 +12
B Harvey 88 96 +8
C Rioli 80 86 +6

It’s true, the guy is a machine. Like a cylon in Battlestar Galactica, something switched on in this guy’s head and turns him into an absolute jet. Adam Goodes lifts his average by a whopping 19 points in the last half of the year. I guess this raises another question though. Why the hell can’t he play like that for the whole year? Big mentions to Sylvia, Didak and Franklin who also tear it up in the last half of the season. Maybe the forward is where we should be looking to upgrade for the run home?

Lay Down Sallies

The guys who drop off when the going gets tough.

Ave for Rounds 1-11

Ave for Rounds 12-22

Difference

P Chapman

129

111

-18

S Johnson

100

92

-8

S Higgins

89

80

-9

N Riewoldt

108

103

-5

While Goodes is a machine in the last half of the season, Chapman seems to turn into a cream puff. His average drops nearly as much as Goodes’ goes up. He still averages over 100 though, so is worth having if you can put up with his sookie la la weeks off. Stevie J joins Ablett, Bartel and Chappy as another Cat who hangs up the boots early, so they can prepare for finals. Ablett’s in a new side now, so things may be different, but the others are a concern.

Who would have thought Higgins would be in the list of Lay Down Sallies? OK, everyone did. Time to go Higgins!

Steve Moneghettis

The guys who keep it steady from start to finish.

Ave for Rounds 1-11

Ave for Rounds 12-22

Difference

R O’Keefe

90

93

+3

B Green

95

97

+2

J Riewoldt

80

79

-1

M Pavlich

95

92

-3

Ryan O’Keefe is a roller coaster week to week, but like Heath Shaw, tends to keep his overall average pretty steady for the year. Brad Green is coming into form and the stats above indicate he should be pretty consistent with that for the rest of the year. J-Roo and Pav drop off slightly, but are still pretty consistent overall.

So that ends “The Long Road Home”, looking at premium players and upgrade targets across all positions and whether or not they can put you in the seat of a brand new Cruiser. If there are any forwards that you’d like looked at, let me know in the comments, and I’ll check them out.

63 Comments

  • first

  • I’ll be making an upgrade in the next few weeks.
    At the moment I’m thinking goodes, Sylvia, didak or fyfe.
    I’m going for league win so I can’t go Stevie j as geelong have a bye in the finals and I already have these forwards
    Buddy, pav, chappy, zaharakis, knights, higgins, darling
    What do you guys think?

    • I really like Fyfe with his DPP status at a reasonable price…gives good options when it comes to the finals.

      • I love the avitar but surely his shoulder is stuffed he dragged it terribly in the second half of the hawks clash cant see him lasting much longer without a good couple of weeks rest and thats abest case scenario

        • Yeah I was watching the hawks dockers game too and fyfe pulled out of contests so won’t consider him.

  • I will be more than happy if Chapman averages 111 in the second half of the season! (and, likewise for Nick R if he averages 103)

    • I think all Chappy owners would be happy to see him return to his DT form of the last few years. It might elevate him to the ‘Bradburys’ list in 2012!

  • Well considering Sylvia is going to be $320-$330k in a week or two, its fair to say he’s a strong upgrade target!

  • Good stuff Dusty. Interesting to note that both didak and rioli come home strong. However, didak would need to put on a black caviar performance to get his second half average back up to 107

  • If you were lucky enough not to have Sylvia you have to pick him up in 2 weeks for a steal.. Same goes for swanny I envy you lucky bastards.. Fingers crossed pendles or shaw, do a minor injury and scores a sub 20 cos that’s who I’m picking up after their bye..

    • With yah there JB, if i don’t run out of trades before then.

    • i too am hoping for a ridiculous price drop

    • Same boat exactly, Sylvia Shaw and Pendles are in my sight. If I don’t run out of trades.
      As much of a disappointment is it that Swans lost all that money, he’s soldiered on till now. so gotta love the bloke.

  • What about Leon Davis?

  • When picking Goodes at the start of the year, one of the fist things I that came to mind was he finishes a season strong. Avg 95 with 5×100 scores out of 11 games. Hoping he will avg 105+ from now on.

  • Hmmmm… I kept Green, and now its paying off… lets see how he goes against the best:)

  • I thought teams would be released Today… NOW!!! I need to now if Franklin or Chapman is playing or I will have to play a 0!!!

    • Me too Gazza. Im waiting to see what happens with Buddy (fingers crossed). Chappy is a sure thing by the looks of it though. The cream puff just needed a rest!

    • WTF? You get two trades a week to help you avoid donuts…

      • Obviously I’m going for a league win. I wasn’t playing anyone decent last week so copped the donut with Buddy. Im playing my brother this week, so pride is on the line!

    • 5pm thursdays

  • thoughts on lecras? might be a good unique, great next 3 adealaide port and carlton

    • shhhhhhhhhh

      • Ha AL,

        I posted my team before R1 and I had LeCras in there, and I got a “Lecras”? in a post from you.

        My return post was Lecras is spending more time in the midfield this year and is going to be a Premo.

        I still didn’t start with him, and I can’t fit him in he, looks propy in the groin still.

  • Well well well!!! This is a stat for you… last year Chapman got 1/5 Dreamteam points from Gablett!!!!!!
    He’s not in a form slump, this is him usaully without Gablett!

  • I guess that it’s good i’m picking up Goodes this week!

    • There’s an article on Goodes in todays Herald Sun (pg86).
      It basically states that Sydney has decided his midfield days are over and that he will be playing forward from here on…
      This worries me since Goodes traditionally STARTS the season as a forward/mid and then switches to a mostly midfield role (increasing his numbers substantially) about halfway thru the season.
      If he’s ‘doing it in reverse’ this year, I cant see his numbers going up at all…
      I have Goodes, and now wish I had Sylvia instead!

      • Quote – Adam Goodes: “I’m seeing myself as a forward and not as a midfielder.”

        :(

  • Dusty – just want to say thanks for the great series of articles you’ve put up this week. It’s made some decisions a lot clearer in my head.

    I’ve ridden the Goddard, Swan & Chappy train from peak price down to rock bottom! It’s time to reverse the trend!

  • What are peoples oppinions on Mark Lecras. Old Lecca is playing more in the midfield and although its kind of a sideways trade I have to get rid of Mitch Duncan he is a crab.

    Any thoughts I have a fair bit of cash for upgrades etc?

    • Im with you Skullman.

      Le Cras has looked very up and about especially the last few games at home.

      Last year he couldnt tackle at all but has made that a strong part of his game this year.

      And we all know he can kick a bag.

      If he stays in the mids watch out !!!

    • I said shhhhhh

      • Tell me of this handsome young Frenchmans new role – as I have not seen the Eagles play for a month now.. Would he be a worthy addition to my FWD line ahead of some other ‘premiums’?

        please answer me

        • Well, he’s playing a shit load more in the midfield now which is a role the Eagles have had earmarked for him for a while coz he’s such a gunny gun gun. With the tall fowards all in sparkling form and Nicoski crumbing pretty well, it looks like he might stay there for a while.

          An educated risk if you will.

          • Thank you squire.

            I like educated risks

            Phillip Kenneth Sebben

    • Yeah I would get in Lecca as the Eagles goal is to have him playing basically 80/20 midfield/fwd time Worsfold as said this in the past, so yeah get onnn

  • Lol, I was on Herald Sun website watching some AFL chat thing and a bloke asked “I have Lenny Hayes sitting on my bench, is there any chance of him coming back soon or should I trade him”

    • Must have been Dr Dream Team.

      • Hehe… love it!

      • I just cannot get over HOW SH!T that douche Dr Dreamteam is at Dreamteam!
        The AFL should pay the winner of the previous years DT 50k to do weekly segment, do Dr Dremteam type blogs etc etc…A car + 50K + national DT fame would be awesome! The regular DT punters would get MUCH better DT advice too!

        • I’d be keen to give that a go…. Sounds like a bloody good job to me. At least I’d get paid for my addiction that way.

        • Anyone here (excluding TKOL of course) would be way more qualified to talk DT than Dr Douchey.

  • Hi Guys, im thinking about slotting LeCras into the forward linr now that he is spending more time in the midfield, averaging 108 over the past 3 and 94 over the past 5. Thinking a swap for McKer-nana.
    Whats your thoughts?

  • Anyone from adelaide got any thoughts on callinan’s prospects as a downgrade target for the 2nd half of the year ?

  • I can’t afford to get Sylvia due to the multibye, unless I trade Knights to him but I’d like him to be my 8th fwd. I’d have Fyfe, Mzungu, Knights plus Syliva out that week which would mean lynch and Prestia on my field.. No thank you, I’ll be getting Goodes

  • current forward line is

    Chapman, Riewoldt, Harvey, Goodes, SJ, Buddy, Darling EMG: mzungu, richardson, howe

    i have 18k in the kitty and could hence afford to straight swap darling for didak. would it be too risky a move? i am thinking mzungu has pretty strong JS and could take over as the 8th forward role. otherwise i would have to downgrade elsewhere and upgrade richardson (in order to keep darling as 8th forward). but trades is obviously an issue and a straight swap is very tempting!

  • Vardy,,Bailey or Browne..Who will get more opportunity?

  • I’m trading sandi to vardy this week
    That way i can finish my team in about 3-4 weeks.
    Then i’ll trade smith back to sandi after freos bye and have petrie as cover sitting in the forward line.

  • Anyone know what’s going on with Isaac Smith (HAW) ?

    • Isaac Smith has been named on a half forward flank for Box Hill this weekend