Trade Talk Tuesday

If you scored anything like me this week (1880) you will have a very itchy trigger finger, and judging by the fact my score was enough for me to jump from 700th to 400th, most people did underachieve. Unfortunately for destROY the planets aren’t quite aligned this week and as much as I’d like to do some reactive trades…. there are no obvious options. So far this week, every potential trade I have studies has come up tantalisingly short, or the downgrade target provides too much risk (I already have Hibberd). Here are a few players I am keeping an eye on, or may interest you:

Down Down, prices are going further down (long term options):

Dane Swan: Last Score: 96 Average: 124 Break Even: 169 Price: $481,400
Gary Ablett: Last Score: 81 Average: 93 Break Even: 169 Price: $434,000
Adam Goodes: Last Score: 47 Average: 86 Break Even: 163 Price: $373,000

Downgrade options:

Michael Hibberd: Last Score: 68 Break Even: -65 (one game)
Kieren Harper: Last Score: 61 Break Even: -51 (one game)
Sam Isles: Last Score: 74 Average: 60 Break Even: -36

About to break:

Nick Duigan: Last Score: 43 Average: 64 Break Even: 71

So, there is some food for thought to get the trade juices flowing. Discuss all your problems and options here. If you have any ideas, bounce them off me on twitter @RoyDT and I’ll try and help!! Oh, I also forgot to mention Mitch Wallis as a downgrade option in the mids…… the problem I found there was all my mids have a low BE. Goodluck!

514 Comments

  • do you think i should do these trades?? round 7 rioli to fyfe then boak to redden round 8 nick voldt to chapman then duigan to hibberd round 9 mackie to delidio or enright which leaves me with 12 trades left

    • Rioli is back this week or next week I think and he definately keeper

      • but got no one to take is place already got two colingwood players on the bench and my last interchage has never played

  • No one can decipher that, we all know Montagna is a DT star but the loss of the inspirational Lenny has caused the Saints to hit rock-bottom and it may take a while for the players to start gaining confidence and momentum as their scores increase.

    • @sugnayeragam

      (sorry mate, forgot to reply to your post and posted my reply instead)

  • will fyfe be a premium soon?

  • ELIMINATOR starts this week. i love lookin at the donky teams in the first couple of rounds….

  • is it worth getting rockliff or fyfe??

  • sick of holding on to underperforming premiums. St Kilda are going nowhere, gotta go N Voldt – fyfe and Montag – Rockliff. No issues with them being keepers

  • One of the big questions of the week: Enright or Adcock?

    • I’m deciding that too, richo.

    • Enright – proven performer, durable and looking as solid as ever so far. Sure he’ll cop a hard fwd tag every now and then, but all the premo quarterbacks will be on the end of a lock-down at some stage.

  • Do you think Harper is going to play this week?

    I’m thinking going Richardson for Harper and Otten for Hibberd.

    • I think Harper would be more likely to play than Richardson

    • Is there a rush to trade???? Donuts……..
      I reckon wait another week for those and make sure they play 3rd games…….Team selections are funny things!!!!

  • is duigan or otten – hibberd ok? of course it is, duigan has peaked otten is injured if hibberd is named to play stop fart assing around and do it

    • So whats your view on the constant Riewoldt > Chapman or Fyfe debate?

      • chapman is the best fwd and will be for the rest of the season, he is in a league of his own, if u can afford him do it, fyfe looks like the second best fwd this year so get him with confidence if short on cash. Win win situation

  • have 240k in bank

    otten to thompson?
    duigan to enright?

    i have a completed forward line (jroo my 7th) and now backline (heppell 7th)

    then i have 160k in the bank

    time to get in guns ie swan chappy sandi

    goddard gibbs gram grimes adcock heppell (lower stanley duigan)

    pendles boyd stanton a.swallow curnow libba (harris bewick hibberd)

    cox pertrie mccawley curnow

    franklin slyvia n.reiwoldt higgins fyfe knights jreiwoldt (matera tapscott richo)

    18 trades left atm

    are these 2 trades right or do i go

    duigan/otten to enright
    richo to harper

    how the hell do you decide between an injured cash cow (otten BE9) and a cash cow likely to go down (duigan BE71) ??????

    then there is the useless richo! obviously a kanga supporter disappointed

  • Duigan to Hibberd,

    This week,

    Or next week?

    • this week, duigan BE is 71

    • i traded him in last week so i could get heppell onto field in the backs. might as well wait unless you want the DPP

    • I reckon Duigan will beat or be very close to his BE this week (so long as he plays full game).
      Saints forward line malfunctioning and plenty of ball for the Blues back to share around and run out of defence with.
      Has been some good scoring defenders against them this year and reckon that will continue until they learn to lock it in again (which probably wont happen for a while).

  • Apart from my other post (further up) i could also trade otten for hibberd and then duigan for adcock

    What do you think?

  • Great article and great comments to follow, couple of decisions for me this week and a question.

    Question? how many trades should we have left at this point?

    Decision 1 : I am cashing in Duigan – who to – thinking Thompson,Pedersen, Hibberd, Watson…. thoughts.

    Decision 2: I still have Green in FWD, i know shoot me, had enough he has to go, I have $74K in the bank and with above trade another $80K to $120K, so who should I get in the FWD line for Green between $400 and $440K

    My FWD line now is : Chapman, Franklin, Didak, GREEN, Petrie, Darling, Tapscot, (Matera,Prestia,Harper)

    • Also Otten has a BE of 9, i want to keep him till he makes me more cash but I have also got Duigan as above in the backline who I am downgradiing and COAD who is out forever, can I afford to hang onto Otten and or Coad since they are only bech players anyway and I have no more MBR or any two players from 1 club in the backline (except broadie smith and otten)

      • Coad is out for another 12-14 weeks remember..

      • You will need some bench players actually playing to make cash for upgrades!!!

  • Duigan -> Jacobs
    Yarran -> Chapman

    Leaves me $65K in the bank and also sets me up to downgrade Libba and Harris in the future to Ablett/Montagna/Redden/Rockliff I want while Swan gets ever closer to a price where I can almost straight swap him for Trent Cotchin.

    Thoughts? Should I be downgrading to another player as opposed to Jacobs or do people think he will play this week?

  • who to bring into mt midfield , which one is the question …

    Rockliff
    Redden
    Mundy
    Fyfe
    J.Selwood

    thoughts people ?

    • Selwood is by the far more the superior one, but he does have a bye in the finals so if you’re worried about that then steer clear of him.

      • Not if u finish top 4 and you’re confident of winning your first final!!! ;-)

      • As an actual football player you may be right, but in DT terms, I’d put Selwood closer to the bottom of that list than the top.

        Having said that, they are all premos and it will probably come down to luck to split the diffs.

  • Have $48, 500 in the bank and here are the trades which I’m looking for:

    Duigan > Hutchins/Puopolo/Cripps
    Riewoldt > Chapman

    OR Riewoldt > Fyfe (might be a bit too late to get Fyfe, but is he still worth it) or the Chappy trade a better option?

    • no point mate, riewoldt shouldnt be traded out i dont think
      he’ll come good soon
      maybe do a few downgrades and get chappy for a rookie
      Wait a few weeks
      as to fyfe i think his stil good
      just be prepared to get a few games under 100 not always 100’s

  • Shaun higgins in doubt for this, knew I shouldn’t have picked him up….

    http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/112941/default.aspx

  • I read quite of coaches discussing trading Reiwoldt to Fyfe or Reiwoldt to Chapman.
    Just remember this… He is Nick Reiwoldt, and your a nob if you trade him!

    • quite a few.. excuse my spelling. Even coaching geniusus are floored somehow!

      • could not agree more… this is why im trading swan for chapman push him in the forward line subbed with krack whore then bring him back round 9 by trading swallow.. thoughts on this big fella

        • forward line is silvia, higgins, rioli, dunken, r volting, daring, tappy, petri dish, matera & krack as DPP not convinced about higgins or rioli with krack havin the bye need more up forward and pushing down chappy would be very handy once the other two come back

          • Rioli Higgins and Sylv – 3 of the most injury prone forwards in the game.
            Good luck with that!

        • if i dont trade swan im still using 4 trades in 2 weeks this way i can keep points rolling and cows fatting

          • My lol comment was a reply to TKOLs wit and humour… not to your comment. Just read what your doing… ur obviously going for the car… and those trades seem logical in your position. Good Luck!

      • The plural is actually genii. Just saying.

        • well there you go. dont turn up for school boys and girls, you will learn stuff on dt talk.

      • I hope you misspelled flawed on purpose TKOL

  • this week duigan>jacobs 171k

    thinking of maybe dawes>fyfe 125k

    next few weeks stanley>enright

    thoughts on the second trade inparticular?

    • No offence there you seem to go with all the bandwagons thats why your horse i guess…
      Do not be so quick jump on and off them,
      Why would you be trading dawes?? Just because of one bad game, unless he got injuried or something that i missed.
      Jacobs, He is a gun but DO NOT trade in someone you have not seen play yet

      If your getting fyfe to rookie ->fyfe

      But i like stanley -> Enright but i think he is a cash cow has fully matured

  • Hi all! let me preface this by saying 1st year DTer….

    My Team:
    God, Enright, Gibbs, Addcock, Heppel, Buckley, Duigan, (Otten, Lower, Stanley)
    Swan, Stanton, Boyd, Embley, Curnow, Harris, (Hiberd, Prestia, Conca)
    Cox, Sandi, (Zachary, Broc)
    Sylvia, Goodes, Franklin, Riewoldt, Fyfe, Riewoldt, Yarran, (Tapscott, Matera, Krakouer)

    Bank $56,100 Trades 16

    Duigan>Downgrade not sure who yet as have hiberd and buckley already
    Yarran>Chappy
    then next week
    Otten>Downgrade
    Stanley>Shaw? or other upgrade

    Is this a good plan or am i burning trades like no tomorrow. I am not looking for overall only league win. I am 3 wins 0 losses at this point, but i am playing pretty tough teams the next few weeks.

  • is duigan or otten a better trade up target?

    • cancel that! cash cow sorry

      • From this point on otten will make the most because his be is 9 and duigans is above his average of 64 at 71. However Otten isnt expected back from injury for another 3 weeks and could even be longer if given a run in the sanfl before his return, so if you will need that spot playing keep duigan and shift off otten

  • I would much rather see Duigan sit around $200k than trade him to Jacobs who may not even play. I will be going Bewick–>Wallis/Iles (not sure yet) then Matera–>Fyfe.

    • This seems to be solid DT trading.

      FWIW, Iles was very poor against Essendon with 60% disposal efficiency and could lose his spot. With the Higgins injury, Wallis looks the better bet IMHO to make the quicker cash.

  • Time to trade Karmichael Hunt…………….the first cash cow to fully ripen!!! ;-)
    Dropped in price this week…….to below his starting value. Hahahaha.

  • Does anyone else feel that when they have played rookies onfield in the backs this year that they are constantly being beaten by the ones left on the bench, leaving you adding up what you would should could each round?

    • yes and its pissing me off.. i’ve only got it right with the rooks in the back line couple of times so far heppll and stanley the gay dog can stay on the park for now though heppell could be keeped till years end..

    • off topic but it seems your the man to talk to round here, got myself two options
      trading out jack seeing as he is injured and i’ve only got 35k in the bank; i can go for redden, rockliff or martin.
      or i can downgrade otten to anyone and then go jack to muddy, watson, pendles, ablett, mitchell, thompson or selwood. what are your thoughts? cheers

      • rockliff gonna ripp it up this weekend .. or go double for selwood absolute gun and he too will rip it this week

      • *mundy

        • having a break out year and doing well go with your gut just keep im mind who plays who end of year..

  • What’s peoples thoughts on Ablett for trading at some stage after Suns 2nd bye? He is still adjusting in the new team averaging 93. May drop to high $300 000’s.

    • don’t do it he’s good but lacks the support .. can’t see him averaging over 100 years end..

      • Not thinking of doing it at this stage at all… just wanted to know peoples thoughts. It was all “Gaj in after round 9″… at the start of the season! Things change alot!

        • sure do!!! wait en see what this weekend throws up.. not too much carnage i hope

          • Have been keeping an eye on gaz, I think he might be off the cards this season. Could be wrong, i just think there are more options ahead of him especially at this stage.

  • Am I Crazy, or is there potential?

    This round:

    Swan > Redden
    Duigan > Puopolo, Jacobs etc (already have Hibberd)

    Approx 220k in the bank

    Round 8:

    Libba or Harris (whoever looks closer to peaking) > rook
    Tapscott > Chapman

    Approx 100k in the bank

    Round 9:

    Again Pitt or Matera > rook
    D Swallow > Swan (440>460k)

    My team will look like:

    Back: Adcock, Goddard, Gibbs, Deledio, Grimes, Heppell, Lower

    Mid: Swan, Pendlebury, Watson, Boyd, Redden, Curnow

    Ruck: Cox, Sandi

    Fwd: Chapman, Sylvia, Franklin, Goodes, N Reiwoldt, Knights, Darling

    Will have 12 trades left and only two more upgrades needed, leaving me with a bit of cash and 8 trades left for LTI’s and to trade out people like Watson in round 24. haha just a thought :)

    • 2 upgrades as in heppell and darlin?
      looking good my friend.

      • was more thinking of the two being Lower and Darling, but Lower does have potential?? :)

        • really should have kept the swan trade to myself…. ha ha their is potential with swans bye and high B/E

  • theres a saying I’ve seen thrown round a bit about never getting a Shaw.

    Heath Shaw is cheaper than Enright and doesn’t have a bye in the finals.

    is it worth it to go for Shaw?

    • I honestly think Shaw is going to have a belter of a year, might even end up being number 1 back.

      Get him.

    • You answered your own question.

  • The name of the game is too upgrade to better players yes.

    This week im thinking Duigan to Thomspon / Swallow to Fyfe. Burning 2 trades whick will leave me 14. Damn injuries!!

    That will give my team back the link to the forwards.

    Then next week im thinking Merrett to Hibberd / Yarran to Chapman. Thus giving me an extra link to my backline.

    Is wasting 4 trades in 2 weeks too much. It will leave me with 12 trade for the rest of the year.

    In 2 weeks my forward line should look like this. Buddy, RVolt, Goodes, Chappy, Fyfe, Higgins and Darling with Mckernan, Tapscott and Matera on the bench.

    • Put Higgins on your bench coz he’s never healthy ;)

      • I spoke to Shaun and he is sick of everyone calling him a soft cock. He has assured me he will be back this week and will rip it up.

  • When do you think it will be time to sell liba darling and lower

    • when his scoring is in danger of being lower than his B/E

    • Libba I probably reckon after this week, but check the breakevens after the weekend. FFGenie gives decent predictions for the next few weeks, and where they should peak.

  • Forward upgrade, considering Sylvia, Pavlich and Fyfe.

    They’re all roughly the same price now. I’m hesitant to jump on Fyfe now, as he’s risen so much in price I don’t know whether he’ll stay there. Probably leaning towards Pav, as he looks pretty consistent, and Freo look in better shape than Melb.
    Thoughts?

    • fyfe doing well.. still not sold on him myself not sure if he will maintain it. i’ll have 1 more forward to bring in later after this week pending on how darling goes but if fyfe keeps it up he could come in

    • don’t go fyfe now. it is unlikely he’ll score more than pav and there is quite a big chance that fyfe’s scoring will drop while pav has proven over the years that his shouldn’t.

      • Cheers for the advice. Looking at the stats Pav has averaged 90+ over the last 5 years and only missing a few games. Sylvia has a slightly better average, but missed quite a few more games. Also Fyfe’s games have been against average teams, whereas he scored a 65 against Geelong. Would have looked to jump on the bandwagon earlier, but thats left the station.

        Looks like I’ll be bringing in Pavlich (on Friday of course)

      • Convervatism says Pav but those not risk averse will go Fyfe.

  • what do people think dawes will be like for the rest of the year? he has a high breakeven and scores have steadily declined since the start of the year. time to trade? or hold on for the ride?

    • Ive always been a bit sus on Dawes, he’s a bit of a hack. Not a huge fan of unproven key forwards.

      • A hack with a premiership medallion.

        I reckon you’re a bit of a hack.

        • There are some pretty average players going round with premiership medals mate

  • WTF is happening with the eliminator?

    “In Round 7, these teams will be matched up and play ‘head-to-head’ against one another, the winner being the team that scores the most points for the round; ”

    It starts this week then, right?

    • Correct. Think you find out your opponent after lock-out. Top 1/2 ranked v.s bottom half ranked. You’ll see some discracefull teams!!

      • I can see some discracefull spelling. Hack.

        • I would like Warnie to become a MRP where he gives out bans for people like you who call people hacks for helping someone at 2am in the morning. You think I give a shit about spelling and puctuation, grow up.

          • That is fine, so long as bans are also handed out to keyboard heroes who label professional footballers hacks because they aren’t consistent DTers.

  • Has any one got any idea if josh hunt is going to play this week? got dropped for the hawks game but the injury to taylor hunt may get him recalled. or should i just trade him?

    • Dunno bud, id dump him anyways. The talk pre-season was that he’d get more midfield time. From what ive seen that hasn’t happened. Cut your losses man.

  • i would like to get chapman and fyfe into my forward line. who would be the best option to get in first??

    • FYFE
      fyfe is going to go up in price but chappy isnt going anywhere he will probably go down soon

  • I dont think any elite Dream Team Coaches will pick up Fyfe this year.
    Its rnd 7 and he will taper off shortly, then everyone will be cursing him and trading him to Goodesy.
    How can you put Chapman & Fyfe in the same sentance, please!

    • That’s because the good coaches had him from the start.

    • Yeah agreed, Fyfe was a great pick at the start of the year but people will be wasting trades getting him in now.

    • Yeah all the Elite dream teamers have Nick Reiwoldt instead.
      Fyfe doesnt play a hard knocks style. He is young and super fit and i see no reason why he will stop scoring.

    • You want to get Nathan Buckley and Anthony Koutoufides into your team. They are proven guns.

      All this rubbish about these kids that can supposedly play and might be taking over the mantle as the best players in the game…please.

      Redden, Rockliff, Fyfe, Martin – do me a favour. Don’t mention them in the same sentence as Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna, Brendan Goddard, Adam Goodes. Those guys will never let you down.

      Oh, by the way, look out for a new coaching strategy that is going to revolutionise the game. It’s called flooding. Gonna take the game by storm.

      • yeh 43 and 43 from goodes and Volt. Cant go wrong!

      • All those players you mentioned ARE letting us down at the moment. Man you talk some shit squib!

        • Really? ALL of them? What an amazing piece of bad luck!

          It’s called irony. Look it up.

  • i agree. I also think any good coaches would never trade out swan if he got 96 unless of course he is injured.

    I just dont get why anyone would trade out swan just because he is going down a tiny bit. that by definition is a bad coach

    • People are not trading Swann becoz he got 96. They are trading him for cash to make other upgrades while Swan has two bye’s in a short period. Possibly getting him back in cheaper after his bye’s. It’s not a bad call if i means you can get some serious upgrades done while he is sitting on the pine.

    • yes two bye in his next 7 games

      Keep Swan and he averages 125 = 5*125 = 625pts in the next 7 games
      trade to Rockliff and he averages 110 = 110*7 = 770pts in the next 7 games (extra 145pts right there)

      trade also gives you $70K in the bank to get Chapman in two weeks earlier than otherwise and you gain another 50+ pts by playing him over a rookie.

      Get Swan in Rd 14 for $50K less than his current price and your mids should be complete. All up you could easily gain 200pts

      • oops forgot to take away the player that would score in Swans place, I guess if you keep swan you will hope the player covering pulls out 75+ scores to eliminate most of the losses. The big deal is being able to trade other premiums in earlier and if you already have Pendles it means twice the pain of having to play bench rookies if you keep them both.

  • Hey guys,

    Its time to go for either C Rich or S McKernan (as Chappy is coming in)

    Who goes?

    Rich apparntly smashed it last week in the twos last week and may have furthur rise left in him than McKernan…

    • check their breakevens, id say mckernan will rise more because remember… The 2s aren’t the AFL. And C Rich got 14 last week which will plague his price rise for a couple more weeks, as well as his very shaky job security and sub possibilities.

      • Mckernan looked good on the WE. Did some nice things getting the ball off the deck for a big guy too

      • and you would have to be worried that if Richo does come back in he will wear one of the Sub vests again…. McKernan will never be the crows sub (unless I guess he gets injured)

  • i have a bit of a problem… in my defence i have duigan otten and coad as u know coad will be out for a while now so i dont know what to do. i have 90k in the bank (not that i want to use it all) i dont want coad but if i trade coad to hibberd (instead of duigan to hibberd) i wont have enough for an upgrade target on my next trade. any1 got any ideas on what i should do?

    • duigan –> Hibberd
      player upgrade

      it is really the last chance to catch the Thompson train, but I would wait for another cash cow to come along, no multi byes until Rd 16 so you shouldn’t eat any donuts.

  • What should I do?

    FIRST:

    Duigan > Ben Jacobs or Luke Thompson?

    THEN:

    Josh Fraser > Dean Cox or….

    Swallow > Watson, Mitchell or Rockliffe (unlessor…

    Otten > Enright or anyone else (maybe unique)

    TEAM:
    DEF: Gibbs, Deledio, Heppell, Adcock, Goddard, Grimes, Stanley BENCH: Duigan, Lower, Otten
    MID: Curnow, Boyd, Thompson, Bartel, Swallow, Harris BENCH: Swan, Bewick, Hibberd
    RUCK: Jamar, Fraser BENCH: Hale, Tippett
    FWD: Sylvia, Zaharakis, Franklin, Knights, Riewoldt, Tapscott, Petrie BENCH: Karkouer, Richardson, Matera

    • $71,600 in the bank

    • get Thompson in now, the crows tall defenders are shot and he now has good job security. I am leaving Otten unless I see a donut coming as he has more money to make me.

      I would wait two more weeks on Swallow to pocket maybe another $50K, wait at least untill next week then get Pendles.

      For sure try and get Cox or Sandi in ASAP

  • My team is looking vulnerable this week due to injuries and the collingwood bye, and this is my biggest week in the league, facing off against my main competitor…

    What are your thoughts on:
    Yarran and Rioli out for J. Riewoldt and Chappy in (which would leave me with $24k in the bank).

    Is it unwise to sell Rioli (who I consider a keeper) or should I cop it now to stay in the race over the next few weeks?

    • if you are going to cop a donut then I would consider it, but it means 1 less trade come finals time. If Prestia or someone plays and you have cover don’t trade out a Premo player like Rioli