Doomsday Downgrades

I usually only write the Bullets on a Monday, so this is a bit out of the ordinary, but I was compelled to pen this given the carnage that was the Round 6 teams.

The next 12 hours will include some of the more season-defining choices you will be forced to make in Dream Team 2011. With the Multi-Bye and some untimely injuries (think Higgins), Round 6 was always going to be difficult enough. But adding in the slaughter of a handful of cash-cows and bench-cover options makes this week even more crucial to your success.

The big challenge this week is to find a balance between your weekly desires and your yearly needs. You don’t want to be trading in dodgy rookies or faux premiums just to cover a single doughnut. But you also don’t want to get behind in upgrades and cash stocks, as the next few weeks in particular will be huge! With Collingwood and Geelong having the byes, the Pendleburys, Enrights, Chapmans and Didaks become economical to trade in.

So I’m going to have a look at the Downgrade options by position, to help you either cover those doughnuts or free up some cash to make those upgrades in the next few weeks.

 

BACKS

The Round 6 Teams unfortunately brought news of popular defender Andy Otten’s return to the SANFL. Most already have Enright and Lower out, with a handful owning Broughton, Mackie or Young who will also be missing, so the news may have been pretty damaging to your DT and therefore your happiness. I know it was for me. Robbie Tarrant owners won’t be happy either, as he’s also bitten the dust. The options are thin, but here’s what you’re looking at:

MICHAEL HIBBERD ($92,500)

Okay, we all know about Heppell’s expected rest this week, and we forecast that this would give Hibberd his first run for the year. As expected, he enters the Dons on a wing, so he should be guaranteed his first run for the year. As for his job security, it’s questionable. With Dempsey out for the year his long-term inclusion looks slightly brighter, but the multitude of Bombers playing well for Bendigo are making it really hard for coaches to feel comfortable trading him in. He is at a really good price though, and in relation to the other options around, he’s looking pretty good.

LUKE THOMPSON ($92,500)

Despite the revolving door that is the Adelaide Team’s selection, Luke Thompson stays and is set to play his important 3rd game for the season. Actually, his career. He only averages 52 though, so you would want to be pretty sure he’s going to hang around and function as either a cash-cow or bench cover for a while before burning a trade on him. As it stands, he has a BE of -32, so he should go up about 30k if he puts up another 50.

SIMON BUCKLEY ($97,600)

The advantage of getting this guy is that if he plays, it will be his third game. The disadvantage is that it will be for Collingwood, a fairly difficult team to hold a spot in. At this stage he’s only on an extended interchange, so don’t pull the trigger until he is named tomorrow, otherwise, look elsewhere.

FROM LEFTFIELD

If you’re looking to get sneaky, Ben Jacobs ($100,500) could be an option. He’s getting over glandular fever at SANFL reserves level, and played well on the weekend. You’d think he would get a spot in Port’s line-up at some stage this year given their current struggles, but if you got him in it’d be a huge risk, and some serious planning for the future. Otherwise, Irish import Zach Tuohy ($92,500) is an option, but his job security is next to non-existent, so I’d stay away. But desperate times call for desperate measures…

Netting most of these guys will get you about 100k in the bank if you’re not excited about Otten’s future prospects and want to downsize him. Some seriously handy cash for an upgrade, me thinks.

 

MIDS

Those bloody teams wrecking my week again. Bewick out, Prestia AWOL and Krakouer uncertain. To make matters worse, Harris and Stanley both populate an extended interchange for the Suns, although the latter is the only one in any doubt I’d say. Here are your options if you’re looking to get rid of either Bewick or Krakouer:

MATTHEW WRIGHT ($92,500)

I’m only mentioning this guy really because of his low price and because he’s actually playing a game. He only scored 27 in his first game and is named last on the Crows bench (sub-alert), so I’d stay clear unless you know something I don’t, or you just purely want to make cash.

MITCH WALLIS ($92,500)

One of the more solid midfield options at the minute. His sub-affected 10 will hinder his first price-rise until it’s out of the 3-game rotation, but he’s a good player who is sure to get a few opportunities throughout the year. Named on an extended interchange bench again, but expect him to play.

LUKE RUSSELL ($97,600)

The young Sun was the sub last week and finished with 29, which wasn’t too bad. Is on the bubble this week after his previous score of 35, and should make some money for you if you trade down to him. Not good for much other than bench-cover while he fattens up, but there is always the risk of him losing his spot or being subbed again. At any rate, he is named on the field this week so he should be safe.

ALISTAIR SMITH ($97,600)

Also on the bubble this week, he is named 3rd on the Saints bench. Has an average of 56 so far, so he is serviceable without setting the world on fire. His job security is pretty brittle with Lyon seemingly keen to get some games into some other youngsters like Johnson, Winmar and Cripps.

OTHER OPTIONS

Hibberd and Buckley are obviously both options as well, which could be handy in the Mids, especially if you have Heppell down back at the moment. It may be a bit extreme but another way to go would to be to get Mzungu or Callinan in early, which isn’t the worst idea given the lack of options. All would make you plenty of cash.

 

RUCKS

Not many downgrades required here unless you have Vickery who has been average, or if you have J. Tippett like me (got him in case I wanted to get Petrie in) and want to see that extra cash. Only one option really:

BROC McCAULEY ($80,400)

A great bubble option at basement price. Will be useful as extra cover, especially if you have Smith in there already. Scored 86 last week to follow up his 30 – I would argue that we’ll probably see more of the 30’s, but he’ll still net you 34k if you’re going from Tippett, or a touch over 100k if you trade him for Vickery. But if you’re going to do it, it has to be now.

 

FWDS

Everyone is probably thinnest across this line given the Ins and Outs of Round 6. Franklin, Rioli, Chapman, Duncan, Pavlich, Pitt and Fyfe all miss with the MBR, and with Higgins and Richardson also out and Krakouer uncertain there will be a few doughnuts this week. Here are a few options you can downsize to:

KEIRAN HARPER ($92,500)

The Roos are in damage control and to show their members that they’re doing something about their form, they’ve turned to some youngsters for games. In comes Harper who I don’t know much about, but a quick Googling tells me he is a mid-sized forward from Eastern Rangers who likens himself to Robert Murphy. Well, hopefully he scores like Murphy because a few will be trading him in to cover C-Rich, who has been nothing short of disappointing given his pre-season form. His job security will depend entirely on his form, but I don’t see him stringing too many together.

LIAM PATRICK and STEVEN MAY ($97,600)

Patrick is tentative, named on an extended interchange, but May is lining up at CHB. As far as job security goes with the both of them it’s hard to tell, mostly because they are new players no one knows much about, and partly because Bluey likes to rotate a fair few players through his young side. Ideally, we’d like to wait until they’re on the bubble, but C-Rich and Krak are making it hard.

OTHER OPTIONS

None. No-one else below 100k is playing this week, with Sumner and Johnson both absent for the Swans this week. So if you want to get rid of Richardson or Krakouer in the forwards, that’s all you’ve got. The other option is copping a doughnut, which I’m seriously considering.

In the end, it’s your call. But be warned, it’s probably one of the most important trading decisions you’ll make all year.  Make sure you wait until the Sunday squads are up before you do anything rash. Good luck!

 

Follow me @tbetta9 on Twitter for the latest.

 

54 Comments

  • first. i know, im an arsehole.

  • Steven may is gonna b a gun!

  • i heard boomer harvey on SEN last night say they rate harpers ball use and are going to try and get it into his hands……..

    i had a bit of a look aroud the forums and the nth fans really rated him pre season but he copped a late injury and has only just come back..

    it seems you could do worse than pick this guy, ideally you would see him play first but desperate times…..!

    if nth keep going rubbish i’m sure scott will keep playing some kids anyhow.

    i’m going to take this punt.

    • i heard boomer on SEN too, but remember he did hang 2 of his younger players out to dry a few weeks ago, so everything he says from now on will be unbelievably positive.

      on that note, i watched him play in the U18 carnival last year and he had a strong core then, which could only mean he has put on more muscle doing an AFL pre season, i will be getting him for c-rich

  • Thanks again tbetta great article… Am just stuck with the c rich, Krak dilemma… Thinking of just taking the globe as there ain’t much around… Plan is like everyone to Upgrade to chappy next week… So question is it worth downgrade to Harper purely to free up some extra $$$

  • I”m in huge trouble going for the car but have Hibberd and have 19 trades left. I would like to save them will Mitch Wallis be a safe pick to my liking?

  • krak to polec and richo to kieran harper or steven may
    or
    krak to allistair smith and richo to petrie?

    • Petrie for Richo for shizz and cop a donut (there will be plenty around this week) and ride it out with the KrakBaby for a little while longer. You never know, he still might get a game.

  • Rainman – stuck in the same situation as you. What to do with Cameron Richardson and Andrew Krakouer (+ approx 70000 in the bank)?? Having Stevie J and Buddy on the bench, I don’t want a zero as in the top 600, and figured at the start of the year that the extra 4 trades this year would be used for situations like this. Obviously waiting to see if Krakouer gets named today to save any headaches (unless he gets the sub and then headache just starts later).

    My plan is to downgrade Richardson to Harper (heard good things on him and need a little more cash). The dilemma is who to bring in for Krakouer???

    For everyone else in this situation (about $270,000 to spare) I see the main options as being:

    1) Drew Petrie – if like me you don’t have him yet, he is averaging 88.33 (after a healthy 143 last week) comes across some bottom 8 teams in the next 4 weeks (3/4). Has a 2008 average of 84 and 2009 average of 87 and the injury riddled 2010 avg of 51. He’s still cheap and BE of -1. Seriously one to consider as could be handy emergency ruck cover if one of the big fella’s goes down. Are his feet okay?? Price = $244,400

    2) Jack Riewoldt – seeing a lot of teams pull the trigger on Junior Jack (probably because they have Petrie). This guy is Mr Inconsistent. After averaging an impressive 84 last year, and dropping almost $83,000 this year (due to counted 0) it appears that he is at a basement price and ready for the picking. This guy causes you to tear your hair out (or lack of remaining). One week 100+ and the next 60, average 80 odd but its a frustrating way to do it. Question over his supply at FF in such an ordinary team. One to consider – but still has 2 byes to come. Price = $264,900

    3) Chris Knights – I, like most have him, but if you don’t get on him before his price goes up too much more. Quality player and reasonably consistent – before 2010, average for three years prior of 85. Price = $263,400

    4) Don’t do anything – cop a zero and lose touch with the leaders???

    5) Pick a random (not recommended) – Kurt Tippet, Leon Davis type and ride the frustration coaster??

    For me it comes between Petrie and Riewoldt – leaning myself strongly towards Petrie (expect similar expected output of 80-85pts/game and save $20,000) but find myself doubting this a little. Hope this helps some others and any comments on what option you’d choose would be appreciated.

    • i too am in the same situation, but with 100k and the hardest thing is that I have to wait until 5pm to make a decision.

      if krak gets named, he will certainly be a sub or will be subbed so wont hit his BE of 45 i think it is.

      am also thinking trading krak for hibberd then upgrading richardson to someone around 300 or less (petrie/j-voldt)

      dont have any zeros so also could be an option to wait.

      i am not convinced by petrie/j-voldt, especially as my 7th forward who will only avg 85 MAX at the end of the season

  • great article!

    at the moment i will only have to cop the 1 donut this week and to prevent that i have to get rid of prestia or cam richardson in my forward line.

    i only have 8k in the bank so i kind of need a bit of cash in the bank to help with future upgrades so should i cop the donut or trade richo for harper (i think prestia’s JS is better)

    should i wait a week or do the trade now to prevent the donut?

    also, what are the chances of harper starting as sub?

    • I would do it now, if you can you might as well get rid of the donut!

      Also. as far as I know Harper is almost a definite starter so no worries there :)

  • cheers for your help! and with the 52k ill have in the bank then should i upgrade boak or give him another few weeks. he’s currently my M4

  • @greenie01

    Very similar as I have buddy and Stevie on the pine as well. Is this a ridiculous notion? Harper and mzungu in for Krak and c rich?
    Pros – makes me approx $120k, no donuts thus round, keep dpp link
    Cons – tendai is a while away, haven’t seen Harper play, do I really need to use 2 trades

    Thoughts

    • im in the same boat, no donuts, but cant bring myself to burn 2 trades, i just have no cover….ANYWHERE

  • nice article,
    Harper looks to have a lot of poise and he knows where the goals are
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux5NA8DIPHk

  • @ tkol
    So your strategy is to trade in your premiums without necessarily waiting for your cash-cows to fully grow?

  • What happens if Harper plays like crap, gets dropped after two games. Such a risk bringing in a guy who hasn’t even played a game. But be my guest!

    • I know it was only against other teenagers but that youtube clip of him looks as if he has confidence and composure, I reckon he’ll go well.. But then again I have cover this week so I’m not trading him in.

  • I really need an outsiders opinion on this idea. team (best 22 + subs)
    GIBBS. GOD. DELIDS. GRIMES. heppel. duigan. smith (otten, stanley, toy)

    SWAN. PENDELS. BARTEL. BOYD. curnow. libba. (harris, prestia, hibberd)

    SYLVIA. GOODES. BUDDY. VOLT. Knights. Petrie. darling (tappy, matera, richardson)

    I have $257,500 in the bank originally planned to go Petrie to Chappy however Petrie still has some solid cash rises to come after his 143.

    Now i am considering going otten – GRAM leaving me with $91,300

    Otten has not peaked in price yet but he is dropped and may struggle to get back into Adelaide’s 22.

    Thoughts greatly appreciated.

    • mmm could work, not sure about Gram and Otten may find his way back in, you have the same rooks as me in the backs and I think they can hold their spots

      • I am pretty confident about Gram, i think he will be in the top 5 defenders this year

        • Just for fun I’ll give my opinion about Gram – there’s no doubt you’ll completely disagree however…I just feel like bagging him. Gram is one of the sluttiest players in the afl. He ghosts around the edges of packs waiting for someone to feed him the ball and this is continually borne out in his stats week after week. I was fortunate enough to watch the Lions Saints game last week – it was a pretty good game between two teams that can’t kick 14 goals apiece. The Saints butchered the ball early in the game (Goddard and Gram were prominent shankers) and Ross Lyon was frustrated to the point of laughing. Gram was seriously looking like sub bait and then boom – he kicked a true receiver’s goal from the arc, which made Ross Lyon realise why he’s in the side. In a low scoring game, Gram’s two or three goals were invaluable. But the shit in between was just shit. I assume you think Adcock is injury prone or will suffer when Drummond returns.

          • @ McScoundrel
            i think you have made some valid points. Gram is a slut and can have poor disposals by foot however i extremely doubt he will ever get subbed.
            As with Adcock, besides the fact that i do not classify him quite in the ‘elite’ backs, I am in a $$$ competition for overall points (rankings) where I am disappointingly second and the leader has Adcock.
            my DEF guns: GOD. GIBBS. DELIDS. GRIMES.
            other guns that i like: Enright (will be in in 2 weeks time, Gram and possibly Scotland or Fisher and Lake
            atm, i think Gram and Enright are the next two best DT defenders in the game, and therefore they will both be in my team (this week and either next week or the following)

          • If you can get two of your coveted premiums in the next few weeks using Otten I think its a no-brainer. I made the mistake last week of keeping fumbly Krakouer and I know that in the context of the dt season, I made a huge mistake in doing so. Apparently, Otten had a shocker last week. If I had him, I wouldn’t hesitate.

    • I have a very similar decision to make Zohan… and a very similar team!

      I have the same 4 back keepers as you do and am aiming for 3 of Adcock, Gram, Lake and Enright to complete it. I am currently leaning towards the first 3 and if that is the case I have to get Adcock in this week before he goes up even more. At the moment I am leaning towards trading Otten for him.

      The other option is Gram now but if I do that then I would have missed the Adcock boat altogether leaving me with Gram, Lake and Enright as my desired backs. I think I want Adcock due to his easy draw and bye in a non-league game but I can’t decide….

      • @ dockerone
        Adcock had already risen $73,400. For me, the boat has sailed. If you think he will continue to score those hundreds against both good AND bad opponents, then by all means choose him over Enright.
        Lake will be my last DEF upgrade however his scoring ability is based upon the Bulldogs structure and therefore i will wait for both his price to descend, and ensure that he can return to his premium scoring ability.
        As mentioned above, Gram is not an elite player, however i believe he will average 90+ and be and important member of my team.

        • Fair points on Adcock Zohan.

          I am thinking I will roll the dice with him and sit with my fingers crossed!

          I completely agree with you on Lake, it is a definite wait and see how his role pans out.

  • I’m ranked about 700th and I’m looking like taking a donut in the forward line (if Krak doesnt play).

    Only abuot 50K in the kitty but very happy with my team. To take the donut or not is the question, got 22 trades left but I dont want to trade a crap player in to scoe me 40 points.

    Id raher wait until Harris, Swallow, Libba, Crunow has made me more money then I can bring in Hibbered in 2 weeks and upgrade Krak to a Chappy.

    FMDT!

  • I got on the hibbert train swapped for otten and got rid of Richardson for darling which paid of last night

  • after this week… Hellooooo Chappy.

    good article too

  • Should I trade vickery to mcauley??? Only have 30k in bank and have only used 1 trade this season, any thoughts?

    • yes you should and then if you have richo or Krak then trade him too J Voldt too easy

  • Not hell keen on j-volt but might just pocket the cash for a future upgrade

    • he has found form now will go back up quick will avg 100 a game from now on but up too you

  • otten to hibberd and then richardson to j voldt?
    thoughts? it will save me a couple of dontus

    • as an essendon supporter i dont think hibberd will get much game time and may even be the sub best to wait a week or so on him see if he plays well especially with tayte pears almost ready for selection and will take that spot but its all up to you mate you never know the risk might pay off.

  • No donuts but no emergencies in any position except ruck. Have some stinkers on the field.

  • Do u think j-volt is a keeper?

  • Iles?

    • too expensive at $110,400 to be considered a downgrade considering what we’re downsizing from.

  • Ok so I have 1 doughnut, which can only be fixed by trading prestia to harper, not worth it. So I’m thinking I’ll use my 2nd trade on Palmer, who should I downgrade to?
    Libba
    Smith
    Polec are my main options.
    I’m thinking I will probably leave it this week as I have midfield cover with Pittard debuting on my ground but Bewick hurt real bad.

  • my friend in high school played on May in year 12 and tore him up, although he may be a little better now