The @Dreamteam_Guru Top Ten

We follow @Dreamteam_Guru on Twitter. He has been handing out some DT tips over the offseason after a great DT year in 2010. We were intrigued by a little formula he came up with to start picking his team for 2011. If you have an article that you think we should post up here, visit the Contact page and send it over!

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Dream Team is a game of stats.  So armed with a fresh copy of the AFL Prospectus, I designed a formula to work out who are the top 10 players to consider this year.

Firstly I needed a formula. I decided on…

Last Year’s average score + 3 Year Average Score + Draft Position + Average games in the last 3 years + age = magic number.

Now to give draft position a usable number, I did the following

Picks 1-10/Father Son = 10 points
Picks 11-20/Rookie Elevation = 5 points
Picks 21-50 = 2 Points
Picks 51+ = 0 points

I also did something similar with age

Age 18-20 = 10 points
21-24 = 8 points
25-28 = 5 points
29+ = -5 points

So picking a player at random with this formula, Andrew Swallow of North Melbourne, we do the following:

Last Year’s score (99) + 3 year Average Score (80) + Draft Position (2) + Average games in the last 3 years (15.6) + Age (8) = 204.667.

Thanks to Excel, I was able to do this with every player.

Now let’s have a look at who are the top 10 players…

10. Marc Murphy of Carlton with a score of 240. Averaging 100 over his last 3 years, being a top 10 draft pick (number 1 in fact), as well as being highly durable makes him an excellent choice.

9. Scott Pendlebury of Collingwood with a score of 245.667. Last year’s average score of 107 helps push Pendles above many.  Its hard not to like this bloke – even with him wearing black and white…

8. Michael Barlow of Fremantle with a score of 246. Averages 110.  However, I think he will be overly priced this year, and I can’t pick him with his leg at present.  Will watch his price drop before I jump on.

7. Leigh Montagna of St Kilda with a score of 249.333. Great player to pick, as he is left off a lot of players radar.  Out of the bottom half of my top ten, he is one I will be considering big time!

6. Joel Selwood of Geelong with a score of 249.667. With Gary leaving, his score will either increase due to his position being more vital, or it will decrease with the extra attention.  Not 100% sure on Joel for season ’11.

Equal 4th .Jimmy Bartel of Geelong with a score of 253. I think Jimmy will flourish without the presence of Gary.  Bartel was first in the rankings last year, and “only” averaging 105 last year hurt him compared to the top 3.

Equal 4th. Matthew Boyd of Western Bulldogs with a score of 253. A bit like Montagna, he can be a good player to have because no one else will have him.

3. Brendon Godard of St Kilda with a score of 254.33. The only non-mid fielder on this list makes him a lock for sure.  Only problem is, everyone else will have him.

2. Dane Swan of Collingwood with a score of 268. When I started this project, I was sure he would turn out to be number one. If I hadn’t of rated Father/Son selection so high, he would have been.  Needs to be picked this year.  Unlike Gary, I won’t be waiting on his price to drop.

1. Gary Ablett of Gold Coast with a score of 273. Only player to be in the 270s, and over 30 points higher than Marc Murphy in tenth place. Says it all really.  With Ablett not available to dreamteamers in rounds 1 and 9, I am hoping for a price drop in his first 7 games before jumping on in round 10.  That’s my plan at this stage!

Follow @Dreamteam_Guru on twitter for more insight from the guru.

59 Comments

  • Huh? Montagna & Boyd off everyone’s radar! Huh???

    • yeah, i think this guy might be on crack!

    • I totally agree as in my team, I have Boyd. (And if everything goes to plan) I will be considering of upgrading rookies to the likes of Montagna, Ablett and Swan.

  • thats fantastic! im gonna have to do that to all the swans players :P just out of curiosity. mite even do it to every team if i have the time.

    • well it took me 3.5 hours, but i have used that formula to calculate the entire swans team.
      interesting results. most would expect Goodes to be the highest ranked, however he is actually beaten by J Bolton (205.32) A Goodes (204.28) and third was J McVeigh (200.1)
      a bit dissapointing considering ablett is 270 odd. im gonna put it down to sydney having a team of contributers rather than any indevidual stars :P

      • except hanners, cause he’s a GUN!

        • he will be! he has only got 1 full season under his belt. thats what really hurt him. at the end of the year it will look much better for him but the end of next year will show just how much of a gun he really is! FYI he scored a 168.78.

          • i have a lot of confidence in him this year. he’s my mid smokie n as a swans nut i love watchin his progression.

      • Good work cadsky!
        Even so, I still can’t see myself putting bolts in.
        IMO, ROK will be the best value Swans player in 2011

        • I don’t like ROK this year. The guy is 30. I think he might start to slow down in terms of DT scoring. There were signs of it last year. I think his best is behind him

  • that is pretty cool and the results came out as expected. DT is so well anaylsed these days.
    im going to select goddard as a MID this year along with dane swan. deledio and gibbs down back.

    • If you want to utilize Goddard’s, Lid’s and Gibbs’ MPP why not select a rookie with MPP like heppel or jacobs instead of selecting goddard as a mid?

      • Agreed!
        IT’S DT SUICIDE!!!
        Why would you play the BEST defender in the mids?
        Will cost you 20-40pts each & every week!
        Goddard, Gibbs, Delidio- ALL should be in backline only!

        • I disagree,
          my ceiling on goddard is that he will top2 MID anyway so will just select him as a mid.
          i believe the extra flexibility there will pay dividends come the business end of the season.
          im going for the league win.

  • Interesting use of math’s Guru. The best part of your article is it makes me feel like I am not alone in my obsessive compulsive football behavior.

    May your forwards take contested marks and kick goals.

    • contested marks??? This aint supercoach talk bucko!!!

      • You bastard hahahaha. I thought that when I wrote it, but then I thought, no way, contested marks are the difference between kicking ass and being average. If a player doesn’t take contested marks, they suck.

  • Yay I already have Murphy, Goddard, Boyd

  • trivia question to one of the gurus…

    Back in 1995 Fitzroy and the Canberra Raiders had secret talks about forming an alliance and were bloody close. Q- which other club was involved in talks about this???

  • Great post, good list. Every player? Really??? That must’ve taken ages

    • I’d be very interested in who came last!

    • it wouldnt of taken that long to figure out the points just type the formula into excell and it should automatically calculate it

      • yes the excel formula was easy however getting all the info is the hard part. i dont have the prospectus so it took me 3.5 hours using about 4-5 different web sites to get all the info on every player at the swans. times that by 17 and its 2-3 days work my friend

  • Don’t like to knock when you have put in so much effort, but shouldn’t you rate the 21-24 age group higher than the 18-20 age group?? In addition, not all father-son picks deserve top billing. Couple other statistical biases you have with your formula, but I’ll stop criticizing or I’ll feel pretty stupid if your team wins at year’s end!!

  • Only 48 hours to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • In unrelated news. I was at the Perth Glory (a-league football/soccer) today and saw Adam Selwood there.

  • any car with a sunroof, unlimited extra head room

  • last year montagna and boyd slipped under the radar somewhat, i can’t see that happening this year. you can’t ignore consistent 100+ averages over the last couple of years.

  • Fuck you AARON you asshole… if i was going for the car then i would put goddard in the backs but by putting him in the mids its called hedging you fuck head. i have an older brother with down syndrome who is 40 and my mum and dad still have to care for him on a full time basis which is not easy and has caused plenty of heartache. ease up on the insults you fuck stain. i hope i come up against you in the eliminator and fuck you up.

    • Well said! (he did say, No disrespect…)
      Not sure how you relate it hedgng? (actually quite the opposite IMO.)
      Simply put, you put the highest scoring players in the most optimum positions, to try get the highest possible team score.
      You are not the only talking of doing this- I just don’t get it???!

      • anyone who says something then says “but” you have to disregard what they said before saying “but”.

        usually i would lock in goddard as a DEF but going for a change in strategy this year.

        due to the byes i am really keen for the flexibility of throwing players around the joint to make sure i have no donuts ever. i dont care about overall. im only concerned about winning my leagues.

        i called it hedging as it is risk minimisation. im just “hedging” my bets and acting conservativley as i just want to make the top8 of my league and have trades up my sleeve.

        sure i wont win the car but i am also realistic.

        • Trust me, I mucked around the idea of having him in mids too, but it compromised my team too much!
          I even had Chappy in mids with Goddard-to cover for A.Swallow & D.Harris, (should both start in rnd 2,) for round 1 ONLY, then would swing them back into the fwd & backs respectively, via links with dpp rookies.
          But alas, i soon realized that i was cutting my nose to spite my face, as they say, as i was denying myself the 2 extra mid Cash cows!!
          Obviously, each to their own, and having said that, i’m sure you’ve put in the hard yards, you have a plan- I’m sure you will do very well nonetheless!
          All the best & good luck!

          GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!

    • I wasn’t talking about you brother, i was talking about you.. but sorry for offending you. Goddard in the Midfield is just a dumb move though, When you’ve got the likes of swan, ablett, montagna, boyd, bartel etc.. you want the best of the best for any given position. You use the bench (rookies) to utilise the mid/def or mid/fwd switch, but personally i think people are over estimating the importance of the dpp’s, the bench is there for a reason! Otherwise you’re gonna miss out on a spot which could be filled with a montagna/boyd type player, but instead you have goddard and someone like gilbert or duffield in the back line. I know which pair i’d rather.

  • especially with byes etc you will need all the extra flexibility you can get to make the top8 of said league. plus it will free up cash to buy an extra “queen” or “king” defender. after you lock in goddard, deledio and gibbs down back you will have no more cash left to buy any reasonable defenders (there is more depth in the defenders than forwards)

    im sick of people like you who dont think outside the square and are stuck in 2004. its time to move with the times sunshine when its round 18 and you have 4 trades left and I have 10 you will probably go and end your life AARON as you are no doubt leading a miserable and wretched life anyway.

    i can believe im justifying myself to you anyway as you are a piece of shit. someone once told me never to argue with drunks or idiots. this is a weakness of mine because im doing it right now as AARON you are a closed mind needle dick who has nothing better to do than go on website and call people retards for kicks.

    • Mate I understand your pissed, but your being a bit hypocritical because you told Aaron to ease up on the insults, yet know your saying mindless rubbish that you don’t even know if it’s true or not. Alright, Aaron is probalby an idiot for calling you a retard. But don’t be a hypocrite by saying worse things back to him.

      • yeah fair call,
        good luck to all,
        i better do some work,
        there is many hours of DT ahead of all of us.

      • Buddy aren’t you 13yrs old! VERY WISE WORDS!!!
        If there was a prize for best post, yours would be a close 2nd to mine re: playing Goddard out of the backline. lolol
        Nah, Warnie wins hands downs with his 1 word post, “Jail.”

        IS IT 12:01am yet?
        Are we there yet, are we there yet, ARE WE THERE YET???

        • Lmao thanks mate. I’m very flattered. Tonight the last night I can stay up before school so I will definetely be registering my team tonight. So excited, footy’s back.

  • Gotta love the internet!!

    • bloody oath,
      This Aaron bloke is way out of his depth here,
      i doubt he would be online right now as school is back today,
      most peole with fully developed brains dont go around calling people retards,
      most people know someone or has someone in their family who is disabled.
      what a socially dysfunctional loser.

      • Over -reacting here. You see 4 people like my comment, obviously they were thinking the same thing you wanker.

      • And if i was a kid, who abuses a kid like this? Its a game for fucks sake, stop getting so cut up about it. Cup of cement mate, hard the FUCK up.

  • There should be a new #1 dreamteam rule:
    NEVER EVER PLAY GODDARD (B/C dpp) OUT OF THE BACKLINE!!! (Byes or no byes.)
    NEVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!

    • 1 year ago i was saying the same thing,
      now i have evolved,
      good luck

    • Yep. Never ever. God, Gibbs and Deleido are all musts in the backline.

      DP only works well when you swap a rookie for a premium anyway

      • each to their own,
        i guess thats what makes this game so great as we all have different ideas/strategies,
        if we were all the same it would be pretty boring,
        i have a mate who finished in the top100 overall last year (he was in my league) and he had goddard and chapman both as MIDS from round 1 (last year),
        worked ok for him

      • would consider starting a DPP only if you were taking massive risks with your fwd or back line with starting rookies and cash cows etc. and you really need cover. Most of the best rookies and cash cows are mid only so the point is really mute.

        • EDIT – starting a DPP “in my midfield”

          • It’s each to their own and who are we to judge another person’s ideas or thoughts. We have the right to free speech and ideas. If someone wants to put Goddard in the midfield, or Gibbs, Chappy or Lids for that matter, then let them. It’s their idea and no need to criticize or insult them for their ideas. I love my footy and DT as much as anyone but it’s not the be all and end. If Friday Night Footy wants to something different by placing Goddard in the midfield than it’s not the end of the world. Get some perspective people!!

            By the way good luck to everyone

  • i would have thought gibbs would have been ahead of murphy?

  • Woah! Awesome stats dt guru! I almost just looked at the most expensive midfielders and bought some of them. Phew!