Warnie’s Top 5 Dream Team Bargains for 2011

Bernie Vince, Drew Petrie, Andy Otten, Tim Houlihan and Chris Knights are the top five bargain picks according to Warnie.

I thought it was time to start looking at some of the so-called bargain picks for next year. There are HEAPS of players that will attract a discount in 2011 because of missing all, or a fair chunk of 2010. This year, Virtual Sports gave discounts to anyone who played less than 10 games. If they go with that again, then we will find some players who are under-priced. We might find other players who are under-priced because of a stinky 2010. Keep them on your radar too.

Here’s what I have so far (shit, 3 Crows!).

Andy Otten | Defender | Adelaide

Otten missed all of 2010 after doing his ACL at training. In his first full season in 2009, he averaged 68 points from 22 games and this was looking to increase as he was potentially looking for some midfield time before his injury. He will be almost rookie priced and one of the most selected players next year. Keep an eye on his pre-season.

Drew Petrie | Forward/Ruck | North Melbourne

Petrie will probably be one of the most popular picks in 2011. Until this year, he has been a very durable player missing only 2 games in the last 7 seasons. Constant foot injuries kept him to only 2 games… and an average of 50 which will make him a mega-bargain considering his 2009 average was 86 and his 2008 average was 84. At 28 (a perfect age for ruckmen), lock him in as your 2nd ruck.

Chris Knights | Forward | Adelaide

Knights has in the past been a consistent Dream Team player, albeit not as durable as we would hope. His averages in 2007 (87 points/21 games), 2008 (83/15) and 2009 (84/18) were very solid as a forward and rate as a ‘keeper’ in my book. The great thing is that he will be priced at his 2010 average of 66 points and will get some form of a discount for only playing 5 games. Durability is a concern, but if he has a decent pre-season… then I’m on as blokes this good don’t come this cheap too often!

Tim Houlihan | Midfielder | West Coast

Houlihan has only played 15 games of AFL and missed all of 2010 which should net him a 40% discount next year. When he finally got his chance in the side at Round 16 in ’09, his scoring was decent… averaging 82 points per game (23 disposals) and played out the season. Certainly a player who can score well (possibly average about 80) and would end up being a great cheap 4th midfield option.

Bernie Vince | Midfielder | Adelaide

In his breakout year in 2009, Bernie was a premium averaging 100 points. While he won’t be getting a discount, he only averaged 85 points in 2010 which in my opinion, is heavily under-priced. In 10 of his 16 games he scored 90 or more. A great ‘mid-priced’ midfielder pick who is sure to improve in value and if he gets back to his best, will average 100+ and be a premiership player in your team.

So, that’s my top five at the moment… will change 1001 times over the next 6 months, but that is what Dream Team pre-season is all about. Who do you have on your radar as your bargain picks for next year? Let us know who and why!

62 Comments

  • Jamie charman a possibillity

  • A big thing about who end up being bargain picks is when their byes are… especially if they’re going to be a ‘keeper’ bargain like Knights for example.

  • johno Brown would hav to b in there

  • It’s only 2 Crows Warnie – Knights won’t be at Adelaide next year ;)

    His pre season at a new club may halt his recovery as he struggles to find his feet.
    Where he goes may influence me locking him in.

    • Yeah, will be interesting to see what happens with him… this will be a fairly exciting off-season with Gold Coast, trade week and the draft!

      • knights wont go

        • my dad was at a function and knights was there and someone asked him if he was leaving the club, and he said nah i like it in adelaide, and he said he wanted to stay. So the only way knights is going to leave is by the crows offering him a shitty deal…

  • I will definitely be looking at Liam Anthony

  • You’d reckon Volt and Brown would still be cheap.

  • reckon joel corey mite be worth a look at, may not be a huge discount but he only played 11 games…

  • Nathan Foley- Played only 4 games for an average of 70-odd, so a good discount there. Will be a great md-priced player to make money and score around a 90 average, like in 2009.
    Ricky Petterd- Played 6 games for an average of 80 before injury, earning a discount.

    Aside from that, all 5 of them have a good chance of making my basic squad of 40 for next season.

    Also a load of Gold Coast players will be cheap, like Karmichael Hunt, and will get loads of tackles thanks to his strength, earning free kicks while he’s at it, therfore possesions. A few rookies at GC: Josh Toy, Brandon Matera and Daavid Swallow.

    Swallow will be named as one of the Gold Coast’s first three selections in the 2010 National Draft and he is already playing VFL footy. Swallow is a hard running, goal kicking midfielder. Will do something like Scully, Trengove, Martin and Morabito, having an immediate impact.

    Brandon Matera would be playing AFL football now if he was on another AFL list. Assuming Brandon Matera remains injury free and completes at least 80% of the 2011 pre-season, I expect him to be a DT lock in your 2011 forward line.

    Having played the majority of his junior career across half back, let’s hope we can select Josh Toy as a defender in 2011. If this is an option, I expect Toy to be inserted into over 50% off all dream teams in 2011.

  • Daniel Kerr will be very cheap (assuming he plays on), averaged 59 over just 4 games this year.

    Would have to have an awesome pre-season for me to consider him though.

    • Definitely a gamble to pick him.. but then look at how many injury-plagued players had great years this year – Waters, Maguire, Kennelly, Gumbleton… to a lesser extent Hille and Malceski.. These dudes played most of the year, and teams that picked all of them at the beginning had a big headstart over the rest – when in other years it couldve backfired enormously! Just shows how much risk taking (and luck) is needed in DT..

  • How about Daniel Harris from the GC? Been showing some good form in the VFL.

  • What about Ablett if he stays at Geelong? Getting the great man for under 500k is a bargain in anyones eyes!

    • Why would you expect him to be below 500k? He won’t start at that price, he will start at a price based on his average of 119 for the season, which I think would put him quite a lot above 500k.

      Players do not start the season on the price they finished, they start based on their season average the year before… with discounts taken into account for players that have played less than 10 and 5 games.

  • Gold Coast players to watch
    Sam Iles (midfield)
    David Swallow (midfield)
    Brandon Matera (forward)
    Zac Smith (ruck)

    All will be in my team for sure, Keep an eye on them

    • GC should be a great source for rookie priced players – but i think it may be tough to work out which ones are in the best 22 and will stay there all year.

      They are allowed to have a massive 57 players on their list this year (48 seniors, 9 rookies). They have 15-16 picks in the draft (9 in 1st round, 1 in every round after that) plus are obviously pinching established players from the current 16 clubs.

      http://www.afl.com.au/tabid/208/default.aspx?newsid=76855

      GC played (more like auditioned) 41 players this year in the VFL – McKenna has said that not all will be offered an AFL contract – you’d imagine something like 20-25 of these would be invited onto the list though.

      These 4 – especially Swallow – are probably givens but it might be tough to gauge others – there will be a LOT of high quality players (current and future guns) to pick from on that list!

  • Have to like Keiran Jack, averaged 105 over the last 7 and priced at 90.
    Mitch Morton could also be a decent pick-up if he holds a midfeld spot next year. Played the last 6 at 99 but averaged 75 for the year as he was pretty stinky for the first half.
    Shuey should get a small discount on his 75 av and has bags of potential, might turn into another Swift though.

  • What about Fev? Had a crap year and is capable of much better if he can get over his injuries and put in a big pre-season. Could be under 200K

    • 236k according to TooSerious…

      I’ll be watching Fev for sure, especially due to him averaging 70+ from 06-09 (82+ for 2006, 2008-2009). Could be a real bargain at sub 250k.

  • Do you think Nick Riewoldt well get a discount?

    • Similar to Kreuzer, Riewoldt wont get a discount for 2011 if DT pricing is the same as 2010 – as he played 11 games – so he should be priced off his ~94 average -> but that includes his injury game against the Pies (though he was probably on track for a sub-50 score in that game anyway). Taking out that injured score of 20 gives an average for Roo of ~102 so you could say he’ll have a slim discount in his price anyway (especially when he averaged ~107 last year). Get on!

  • You had to mention Houlihan, didn’t you Warnie?

    • Everyone will be mentioned by the time March comes around! ;)

      • True, I like that sort of thinking Warnie. Muddy the waters through sheer weight of numbers!!! ;)

        Might as well throw my shirt in the ring as well then;

        Everyone forgotten about Pat Contin from the Tiges? Rookie listed and only played 1 preseason game but scored over 100 in it. If he gets promoted will be an interesting selection as he is a firey little bloke.

        Anyone follow his form in the VFL this season?

        Also Sam Blease who was taken in the top 20 a couple of years ago but not played yet due to injury (breaking his leg I think?) Has been back in the VFL and could be an improver in an emerging Melbourne midfield.

        Then there are also guys like Gysberts and JKT who have showed a bit in a couple of games this year but should get a discount.

  • What about justin sherman ??

  • Jordan McMahon didnt play at all this year, priced at 338k could be a bargain if he gets some game time next yr

  • Brodie Martin. Played two games at an average of 80 and he’ll probably be rookie priced. He’ll get more game time now that heaps of the old Crows retired. He’s a bit injury prone though.

    • He’s an interesting one – and clearly part of the Crows’ L/T plans. Not sure he’ll be rookie priced but he SHOULD get a hefty discount:
      * In 2009 he played 2 games (84 and 59 for an average of 71.5) before doing his knee – and got a 40% discount for 2010 to be priced at $188.5k at season start
      * This year as you said 2 more games for an average of 80 – hopefully he’ll get another big discount (is 40% the maximum discount?) as he’s only played 4 games in 2 years!

  • Liam Anthony from kangaroos. is a gun,unlucky shoulder injury early in the year. has an average of 95 from his 7 games, which i reckon he can improve on especially with more protection from the improving midfield.

    what is the max games you can play to get a discount and what sort of discount do they get?

  • Not sure if u guys know something i dont (ie: if he won’t be right in time for round one) but surely the big Kreuzer is a massive target from the cheapy bin. Best part of half a season out he will surely have dropped. Obviously it will take him a while to readjust to the speed of the game again and to expect instant result would be a bit naive but surely he wud float around the 250k mark

    • If DT pricing is similar to last year Kreuzer won’t get a discount – he played 13 games and last year only players who had played less than 10 games got a discount – so he’ll be priced at his average of ~76. This IS a small discount already though as that ~76 average includes his injury game where he got 5… excluding that game his average was ~82

  • Is Barlow likely to play round 1?

  • If Gold Coast’ s Michael Coad has a good pre-season he’ll be in my side next year. Mature aged plays both CHB or CHF and was in their best players most weeks before copping a severe knee to the kidneys that kept him out for the rest of the season. Hawthorn wanted him 2009 season but stuffed the paperwork.

  • What about Daniel Kerr if he has a full pre-season?? he would pretty cheap!

  • Jed Adcock potentially.. only played 9 games for his 63 average – so hopefully will be priced at ~55 or so. Averaged ~85 in 2009 and ~89 in 2007. Vice-captain and just re-signed. If he can get his body right could be a cheap gun…

  • Warnie

    Any thoughts on Micheal Barlow will he be discounted much after missing a little over half a season? My guess he will be valued just around 400 grand.

  • Together with Berny Vince, you can add
    P Ryder,
    D Cox,
    J Lewis,
    D Beams,
    J Redden,
    J Mc Veigh
    who all scored >90 pts on at least 10 occasions and should sell for similar prices.

  • Other dirt cheapies include B Fevola (if still alive), S Hill and as previously mentioned J Adcock.

  • Jack Riewoldt
    ROK
    Chaplin

    3 quickies that will be cheap thanks to poor performances.

  • i’ve had my eye on sammy blease for a while now, i rekon he his deffs one to puty on ur notepad of a pre seasdon watchlist

  • Hamish Harltett? from port, taken fairly highly in the draft a while ago wouldnt of played more then 7 games this yr if he can get his injuries rite maybe a gumbleton story?

    and can any other AFL club pick up the lads that GC delist from there list this yr?

  • Is Fevola going to be a bargain next year ?

    • Yeah coz he will be playing in the VFL

    • Fevola will be a bargain if he’s still playing because he is so shit…he has devalued so much, now is under 200k. If he can get his act together, stop getting in trouble with the law, he might be a brilliant pick-up for an experienced reserve to gain a fair profit.

  • Barlow and The J-Pod, and to a less extent Bodie Moles and Alex Silvani, were great pickups this year and all were in the VFL team of the year consistantly. David Swallow and Zac Smith are sure to be stars at the GC. Stephen Clifton, Shane Valenti, Myles Sewell and Matthew Little, I’ll be watching to see if any of these guys can get some games.

  • Chad cornes possibly, Hargrave should avergae 90+ in ’11, J. Gram will be undervalued, Garrick Ibbotson for freo avergaed over 70 in 2009. Also Hamish Hartlett should show why he was such a high draft pick. Also S Higgins, Ryan O’keefe who was down on form in the 2nd half of the yr with an injury and possible patrick Veszpremi

  • Andrew Ruck of Claremont, WAFL. Good ruckmen and forward, similar to Dave Hille. And he’s my teacher.

  • Andrew Krakouer, how much do you reckon he is going to cost? looked at his stats in the wafl and he absolutely killed it! counted one of his wafl games which he got 181in dt which is just ridiculous. he could be a a great bargin!!

    • I’ve seen him play in the wafl, and he is a superstar. In the grand final against my team, Claremont, he racked up 39 disposals. Again, in one other game, he got something like 54 possesions. Definite dream team player, and will hopefully be like Barlow.