Chook’s Rooks: Round 11
The AFL coaches and Aussie Pim need to get their act together. To raise our national rankings in DT, we need fresh meat to cash in our maxed-out cows. To raise our nation’s chances of progressing in the World Cup, we need some fit and firing guns in our forward half. Unfortunately, the list of one and two-game AFL rookies is as poorly stocked as the Socceroos’ strike force, piling a whole lot of pressure on a few blokes named Cahill, Kewell and, um, Gysberts.
Three-or-more gamers
It’s a sign of the times that there are now heaps more rookies in the Red Zone (higher average than their breakeven) than those with negative breakevens. As Paris Hilton will undoubtedly discover one day, the cash fountain will dry up eventually. Melbourne midfielder Tom Scully is in the most trouble, having dropped $17k this week and going into Monday’s match against Collingwood with a BE of 113. Unless you reckon he’s due for another 130, then it’s selling time. At least Scully’s made his owners some decent coin. Teammate Jack Watts has started to dredge up memories of his underwhelming rookie year by scoring 27 and 23 in the past two games. The mid-20s are a great period of your life, but they don’t cut it as a DT score. Like last year, Watts is in real danger of slipping below his starting price, which makes him about as useful as Kim Myong-Won – the North Korean striker who can only play as a goalie at the World Cup after being listed in that position on his country’s final 23-man roster. While we’re making World Cup comparisons, Fremantle midfielder Michael Barlow must be France’s Franck Ribery – a hard-working, no-frills player, but one who’s undoubtedly world class. In his return from a hamstring strain, Barlow racked up another big ton in the Dockers’ loss to Adelaide, taking his season average to 107. That puts him just outside the top 10 this season, while his average over his past three games, 127, ranks only behind Leigh Montagna and Brendon Goddard. Definitely world class.
Two gamers
As I alluded to at the top, Jordan Gysberts must be carrying the weight of the DT world on his shoulders at the moment. The drought of midfield downgrade targets recently means that the Melbourne midfielder would’ve been hot property regardless of his scoring potential, but a century on debut had coaches drooling. The test came this week when he had to share the midfield with Scully and Jack Trengove, who returned from round-10 rests. A 75 at three-quarter time had him on track for an A+, but he lost some marks (and m0nty’s flame) with a 3-point final term. Still, it’s a hard-to-please coach who wouldn’t be happy with 78 points from their 7th midfielder. He’s priced at $117,500 and isn’t a lock to play every game this season, but coach Dean Bailey has stated he wants to get more games into him and Watts, so remains your best bet. Who knows how long you’ll wait for another bandwagon as good as this one. Oh, yeah, and Geelong ruck Dawson Simpson played his second game too. Simpson might be an option for those that picked Jackson Trengove as their third ruck and are now looking to squeeze some cash out of the Port big man, but even those coaches might need some convincing, given that the Cats’ first-choice ruckman Brad Ottens is a chance to return after the split round.
One gamers
Ottens isn’t the only Cat close to rejoining the reigning champs, with late withdrawal Cameron Ling as well as Cam Mooney, Matthew Scarlett and Joel Corey all expected to return within the next couple of weeks. That suggests Taylor Hunt’s taste of the big time will be restricted to a nibble at this stage. For the record, the Geelong defender scored 53 in his first match.
World Cup fantasy
All this talk about the beautiful game has inspired me to find a fantasy game for DT Talkers to muck around with. There are plenty out there, but I’ve settled on the simple offering from Virtual Sports. No budget, just a limit of two players from any one country. Have a crack.
worldcup.virtualsports.com.au
League code: 309981
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Cheers Chook
It is very tempting to downgrade Martin to Jizzy for cash but at this stage of the week I reckon I’m going to hold my trades this week and miss the jizz train
I’m pretty happy with Martin as my 7th mid
Nice work Chook!
Bloody sad what has happened to Brad Jones tho
i didn’t know what you were talking about, not being much of a soccer fan but after googling his name, it is indeed sad news.
my thoughts go to young Luca and the rest of the family
Luca battle through young one.
yeah cant believe it…
With Shuey and JKT as cover im half tempted just to get gysberts in for security. Then again its probably not worth the trade
Definitely worth having bench cover, and with Shuey having glandular fever and Hawthorn’s star midfielders all back, I won’t be surprised if neither play again this year
How is a players BE even calculated, i have the FFgenie program i’m just curious as to how it works
It seems to be a pretty complicated formula which is slightly adjusted as the year goes on. It works something like:
new price =
(previous week’s price) x 0.75
+
(what your price would be based on your last three game average) x 0.25
It’s suspected that there’s a ‘magic number’ which is multiplied by the three game average to get this new price, but I’m not sure what it is (in fact I suspect it might be more complex than just multiplying by a constant).
But anyway, hope that kinda helps
yeah, it sounds like a complex algerithm
I use the following formula which is by no means exact but its close enough for a rough estimate:
75% x old price + 25% x (4092* 3 round average)
Thanks chook, been a hard year for u bro…..crap rookies lately ever since the JPOD
If you’re gonna play fantasy world cup do it on the official site that’s sponsored by Mcdonalds
Given the dearth of rookies available at the moment, is anybody else looking at 77K rookies as their 9th FWDs and DEFs at the moment? I’m considering it strongly this week because it would mean I can just upgrade to Goddard, but big risk if injuries stike my backline
Re 77k rookies, Im waiting to see if any are promoted and named this week… I’m pretty sure the free rookie upgrades can be done after Round 11. Anyone got any info on this?
yeah mate im doing Howlett to the dual position bloke from Brissy as my 9th mid
becasue i have Pav,Goodes,ROK,Rohan and Didak that can all go midfield if i need to fill a hole and with Gumby and Rohan as my bench fwds i will still have fwd cover if i need to move one!
was a plan of mine for a while now just waiting for Howlett to get every last $$$ and then BANG.
will be down to 6 trades after that and depending on my eliminator opponent, weather when to bring in Ablett as my final trade to complete my team.
Dylan McNeil from Sydney as well
McNeil is the one, solid form for swans reserves. Hopefully get a game later in year, depending on how their season finishes.
Best to do this kind of stuff a week or so before finals (rounds 17 or 18)… unless it looks like your team won’t make the top eight. That way you can trade in players who are in form and perhaps even rookies who are getting a game for those teams who can’t make the finals.
Hmm… I might go Banner to Gysberts which may seem stupid because Banner only went up in $ once but it doesn’t look like he’s getting back in the team and Gsyberts will be good back up in case of injury. However, If Banner makes it back in I’ll save a trade, Anyone know if he will?
Banner was playing in the SANFL 2nds a few weeks back, so I’d recommend getting Gysberts, even if you just use him for bench cover
Was still there last weekend, i traded him out for stevenson when he went back to 2nds.
Thanks for that. I’ll probably need cover for later in the season and I don’t think any other mid rookies are coming around so I’ll get Gyberts.
Hope Shuey is back soon!
Another league if anyones interested – 626849
martin to gysberts is probably the best bet, but i have martin and connors on bench, so if gysberts gets bumped from the dees 22 i have no cover.
any idea if connors will get another chance?
connors will almost certainly get another chance imo. he’s now elgibile for selection and its been reported that he’s played well. not a walk-up starter due to richmond’s relatively decent form last 2 weeks but will definitely play.
http://www.afl.com.au/tabid/208/default.aspx?newsid=95217
OK, I’ve decided to bring in Gysberts as my bench is just embarrising.
Not that it really matters, as they both cant get a game but which of my usless bench should I get rid of, Rohan Bail or JKT?
Thanks for any thoughts.
Is anyone thinking of Hille into Mumford??
It free’s up an extra $40,000 and gives you a lone ruckmen(sorry Canadian guy) who is pumping out some big hundreds!
Or is this just Seaby situation which will burn me again??
Yeah sounds like a good trade I might do that maybe….
Until Seaby comes back and Roos decides to halve their work to give Mummy a break and to bring Seaby back to fitness…
Yeah thats true if you look at his scores he has done shit with Seaby there but good by himself.
I agree.
Fool me once ……….
I could do a straight swap for Sandilands but he looks tired. It might be a better option to hold off a few weeks and play Trengove.
Yeah, its safer to pick one of the guys who has been scoring well with their ruck buddy there for the past few games…as much as it pains me to say it – one of the safe ones. Stuffing up trades now is the no hope.
tkol,
i tossed that out there yesterday due to his current form, but realistically don’t think you could do it at this stage of the year. Str8 swap to sandi looks the go.
If u are going to hang onto Hille, need to be confident he is not going to miss any more re injury, cause his price will drop plenty now when he comes back!!!
I agree.
The benefit is the split round is next week so i get 3 weeks to make a decision. Trengove has played well of late except for last week. Who knows what might happen by the time Hille is ready so i will just put him on the bench for now!
Yeah, fair enough. Tough one with fact he may only miss 2 games.
Have u thought of risking it with Paddy Ryder? I say risking because he is expensive (409k) and no one has given him much respect this year but his last 6 scores are pretty hard to ignore (only one sub-100 score which was 99!). Could be the decision that makes or breaks your team, given that he will be a very unique pick!
PS. this is the REAL papbomber, not the fool that was pretending to be me on the injuries update thread.
I think Howlett to Jizzbit will be one of the most popular trades of the year.
I had grand plans to use the money to upgrade bustanut to swan but it now looks like ill have to go higgins to didak and then wait anotehr week to cash in on another cow to get swan. Oh well!
Let’s just hope that Gysberts isn’t another BEAU “MUST-HAVE-IN” MUSTON!!!
Did you con me into getting Muston last year Chook? I think you might have!
Thanks for putting the frighteners into me. I’ve just set the box to record the Carlton v Melbourne game to make sure he isn’t! haha
Nah mate, won’t be like that. He actually gets his own footy, Muston just waited outside for someone to give it to him!!!!!
I saw in the morning press that Higgins looks like he is just out for 2 now, not 6. So I reckon hold on to Higgins if you are short of trades now.
I have Shuey and Jack trengove as my bench cover, i like jack as solid bench cover for the year, but my team has more serious issues in defense, (playing webberly and maguire, with broughton+C, Heath on the bench) and ruck (sandi, nicnat, jackson trengove, warnock) , so the cash would help.
think its worth getting gysberts for jack?
Shuey is listed as indefinite on the WC website. Up to you. I have shuey and JKT. If shuey was back in a few weeks i might keep him but i think JKT has more of a chance of playing than Shuey now. Probs gonna get Gysberts in for shuey now.
Shuey will be back after the mid season break I reckon. JKT will be lucky to get another call up now that the Hawks are close to full strength again. If I had them both, I’d be ditching JKT.
With Glange? Season more like it.. takes the juice out of you.
I’ve got J.Grant and his out for one week! i dont have any emargencys for him so what should i do??
have a donut or trade him?
Who to trade him for is the question? No downgrade options really
You could probably go strait to Leon Davis for Grant’s price..
Pods should be ok
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2010/06/08/180311_gfc.html
Will Gysberts play to the end of the year??
him being named the rising star of round 11 helps his cause. at least for one more round.
Hows Jack Trengove for T.Armstrong sound?
If u are trading Trengove, better to go to Gysberts than Armstrong. Gysberts should have better job security, is about 85K cheaper and should score better.
Should I hold onto Higgins? Will be out for 2-3 weeks apparently but scared he might be out for longer
depending on your cash and trade situation
If you have 16 trades, by all means get him out. you can sideways swap him for a premium player who has drop 50-100k so far.
Or if your sitting on 150k trading him up to Chapman wouldn’t be stupid either. I can see chapman having his best year to date this season. Thompson has increased his midfield time and his scores should continue nicely, he is a stocky player who does it week in week out. (until his hammys give way … touchwood)
i am got rockliff as cover hopefully hes back after the mid season break.
There’s always a chance St Nick will be returning soon and could be quite cheap in time for finals. I wouldn’t be trying to fill you last forward spot quite yet.
Another downgrade in potential weeks will be Kobe Stevens from WCE. Had a blinder in the WAFL yesterday for East Fremantle and he is getting closer and closer to selection. I would be thinking he is an outside chance this week or for the Rd 13 just before the bye.
I have Ben Griffiths and Nathan O’Keefe on the pine and wondering if they will get back into their prespective sides. Saw O’Keefe kicked 4 goals and was one of the best over the weekend in the VFL
Ben Griffiths is an interesting one. Was he dropped for form or injury?
injury with a corked thigh and was replaced late by Mitch Morton who played shit and is listed as a test this week…
I would expect NOK to play quite a few games between now and the end of the season in place of David Hale. If he doesn’t North fans might pull down the new facilities.
anybody know what’s happened to Rohan Bail?? Went out with a quad ages ago and hasn’t been seen since. can’t find any info on him at all, is he dead?
Fractured cheekbone – 3 to 4 weeks. In the round 12 injury list.
at least he’s alive and kicking still!!
Only just………haha.
Can anybody advise as to what has happened to Danny Hughes at Melbourne. On two games and would be very useful as a fprward downgrade if he had an job security.
Got hille
Would hille to cox be worth it? only cost 7k
plus 1 trade obvioulsy.
Cox is so disappointing!
I am waiting for Hille, he is the same player as Cox!
Every week Cox is on 50 + at half time then he scores 80 ish!
hey TKOL, saw you cracked the top 30 overall. Great work!
You have cox and hille though already!
Im just saying i wouldnt bring in Cox for Hille.
just reviewed your team TKOL, how did you manage so many guns in your team already? Your team looks pretty much set! Who is your 6th mid going to be?
Boyd this week!
Final Mids
Ablett Swan Montanga Bartel Boyd Barlow.
Everyones teams are getting so good now especially in our league (17 overall)
I think you will win the whole competition this year!
what’s his team name?
Question for everybody!!! I just had a thought. Could be useful for a lot of people.
I have Shuey and JKT on the bench. I was considering bringing in Gysberts this week purely for some back up in the mdifield. However I’m thinking it might not be worth it because it costs a valuable trade to gain only $17,000 and the guy will probably play on my field only 1-2 times this year.
So I had another idea.
For now, i won’t make any trades. If there are any 1-3 week injuries to my mids (i.e. It’s not long enough to trade them out, but I still don’t want to cop 2-3 donuts), then I’ll trade in McNeill (Sydney $77,000) who is listed as a midfielder AND forward.
So, for example, if in rd15 Ablett is rested for 2 weeks, then I’ll trade in McNeill, move him into my forward line for, say Pavlich. Then put McNeill onto the bench and bring on Fyfe or Hitchcock. This works well for me, because I have 2 reliable forward benchers who I’m confident will play most games for the rest of the year.
So, the benefits are:
1. I don’t have to make any trades for bench cover until I actually need it. I might only need bench cover in my mids in round 15, by which time Gysberts could be dropped. Also, by the time I need cover on the bench, eg. round 15, Shuey or JKT might be back in the team. In that case, I won’t need to trade and i’ll have saved a trade.
1. I gain $60k from trading in McNeill (could be valuable money, much more than the measly $17k from Jizz)
2. I get to use Fyfe/ Hitchcock as cover for both my midfield AND my forwards, because if it’s a midfield injury, I just move Pav to the midfield and put McNeill on the bench in the forward line.
I like it a lot. McNeill could be one of the best fantasy footballers never to play a game this season haha! I may even look at Dustin Martin > McNeill in the next few weeks if no other downgrade options are viable at that point
I’ve thought about that idea as well, but have gone off it over the past two weeks.
Reason is is say one of your mids is not named, so you use the DPP to bring in a forward to replace them, then (which is becoming more common) on the weekend one of your mids is a late withdrawl you are left with no cover.
not true. if you trade in someone other than mcneil. someone who’ll play out the season. this player then replaces the injured midfielder on the field still leaving you with no cover in the midfield for a late withdrawal.
the downside only occurs if you have ne or two fwds out as well as a mid. i.e. swans out so you swap mcneil with ROK. put ROK on field instead of swan. mcneil in fwds now and you swap with fyfe. this leaves you with a full playing team. if a fwd pulls out you have to use your 2nd fwd bench fwd which can leave you in trouble if they’re not playing i.e. phi davis
Either way, if u have 3 or 4 out u will be tasting donuts!!! DPP is way to shuffle side if u have have bench players in any position.
Gysberts best available mid at present and no guarantee he will play out season.
Exactly my plan also mate! Doing the Howlett once maxes out to him keeping Martin as my 7th mid once got the cash to bring in Ablett
I have a higgins dilemma.
I have 10 trades left my fwd line is Chappy, Brown, ROK, Gia, Higgins, Buddy, Rockliffe or Pods for 7th spot.
If higgins is out for 2-3 as they are predicting i can sit him on my bench and play both pods and rockliffe with hitchcock as fwd cover who should be back this week. Doing this I dont burn a trade but I do have 2 uncertanties on my pitch with pods and rockliffe, even though they have both been killing it. Also if someone is injured im relying on hitchock to be playing.
The other alternative is to trade higgins for didak or pav (probably diak considering collingwoods run to the finals now). This will burn a trade and also 50k which i planned on using to upgrade my 7th mid bustanut to swan. I will still be able to do that in an extra weeks time.
Option 1 does sound like a no brainer but i am in a league which is worth big money and currently sitting on top. The league is ranked 30th overall and i am on top with 6 other teams by %. Then from 7th to 11th is only 1 game behind, then 12th to 15th another game so dropping a game could be crucial. We also have relegation to the bottom 4 sides and even though im sitting pretty if i drop 2 games because rockliffe scored 60 when i could of had didak scoring 120 i could be in the gun.
Sorry for the thesis but would love some feedback
I’m in a similar boat where I’m more concerned with a league win than overall ranking. Which is where I think you sometimes need to be a little careful about SOME of the advice given out on here, since a lot of people (mostly the ones who are burning early trades) on here are going for the highest possible ranking, which means making early upgrades and hoping for luck with injuries etc in the last few weeks of the season.
But I digress. My point is that people going for league wins maybe should aim to have 4-6 trades left for the last 4 or 5 games of the season…which means you may, at that point, still have one or two players who need upgrading, BUT if you’re upgrading a week before fantasy finals, rather than with half the season to go, then you have a better chance of picking somebody who will be in form for the last (and most important!) 4 weeks of the season.
Having said all that, you need to get to finals first, and your league sounds a lot tighter than mine. But given the break’s coming up, and Rockliff’s good form, then assuming Pods doesn’t miss any I’d be keeping Higgins – the reason you pick good bench players is so you save trades on short term injuries!
I think you need to wait until the last second to make your choice. Need to see if Pods will play.
You have 10 trades which I think is comfortable, so if i were you i would have never had higgins in the first place… but you do so why not trade him. I would get Pav but dids is a good choice aswell.
Is bustanut on your field? or if not who comes off you field for Swan? B/c if you make the Swan trade this week, then the points gained by Swan compared to your last mid will probably be more than the points gained by having Didak/Pav over Rockliff anyway!
Thanks for all the feedback guys, definitely scratching my head over it. Definitely going to wait until the last minute A) to see how long he will definitely be out for and B) If Pods is going to be out.
Young guns i totally agree it was a mistake on my behalf. I still remember clear as day season start i wanted Pavlich but could only afford Higgins. The only way i could have afforded him what have been to downgrade mitch banner to howlett during the initial selection. In the end i went with my guy that mitch banner was going to be a star and howlett a 1 game wonder. I was DEAD WRONG. Had i chosen correctly i would be top 500 probably a game clear in my league and not writing this post. Bus alas this is dream team
Also magic busta is my 7th mid at the moment but when i go howlett to jizz it only takes me to 410k so im still a bit of swanny which means he is still a couple of trades away. If I go to Didak ill have 85,000 left. Busta should be worth 280k at weeks end meaning im 100k away from swan so either way he is still 2 cash cows away from my team.
Then there is the matty maguire problem
Hey guys I want to get gysberts and need to trade either ziebell or trengove out of the middle. Who should i get rid of as they are both same averages pretty much.
downgrade trengove upgrade zeibell?
If you’re set on keeping one I’d probably keep Ziebell. First year players sometimes fade out as the year goes on, plus Ziebell has had a couple of 60-70 point halves recently, which MAYBE means he’s finally about to score some decent points
ok cheers mate and do u think gysberts will get much of a run in this 2nd half?
ribery, no frills? u kidding me?
Exactly what I was thinking, as i read in an article a couple of years back ‘Looks a little like Frankenstein, plays a little like Zidane’. I’d compare Barlow to Lampard personally, fits the non-flashy but a superstar description.
are you kidding me? Lampard is a superstar that has skills as is Ribery. The best comparison for a gun player that just plays his position well is someone like Cambiasso. Central defensive midfielder that doesn’t show off his skills.
Ribery is in the same catergory as the Messi’s and Ronaldo’s – Flair, technical and exteremely skillful. I would liken them to GAJ, stevie J and Buddy, possibly even Judd, plays who you watch and go Ooooooh when they do something special. Lampard is skillful and techincal but lacks flair, how often do you see him beat multiple opponents, try ‘tricks’ and do step overs? Other players like him are Gerrard and Fabregas, they get the job done. AFL equivalents are Black, Hodge and Boyd (not to mention Barlow) – if you had to describe them you would say Effective and Efficient as they have the skill but dont stand up out of your seat when they have the ball in anticiapation of magic, but they’re still superstars. Cambiasso is a holding midfielder, which i would liken to a tagger so Ling and Kornes.
Who do you guys think is the best rookie to get in this week for Tie Kenneally?
IMPOSTER! damn u ninja
TYOL or anyone else help would be great here.
Current forward line is
Gia/ Ballanyne /Betts/ Goodes / Brennan / ROK / Pods (bench Davis / and one of these guys)
I am going to do Ballanyne to Brown so I have another premium who I believe will come good at worst after the break.
Problem is I would have Gia/Brennan/betts one who wouldn’t start.
Who to get rid of would I just do a downgrade or keep Betts on bench?
good job sercurity for hunt?