Chook’s Rooks: Round 9

Posted by Chook on 26/5/10 • Categorised as Chook's Rooks

Want to know what made the kid on the anti-smoking ad get his grizzle on? Chook has the answer, and it wasn’t Scott Gumbleton’s third sub-40 score of the season, as sad as that was.

As dad to a little fella myself, it kills me to watch the three-year-old kid in the anti-cancer stick ad bawl his eyes out at the train station. Like most, I’d assumed he got himself so worked up because he couldn’t find his mum, but a little bit of research reveals the true story. I spoke with the producer of the ad who said the boy had maxed-out rookies like Lewis Jetta and Anthony Morabito in his midfield, as well as Ben Nason and Scott Gumbleton leaking cash in his backs and forwards. “The dude clearly needed to make some downgrades,” the producer said, “so all I had to do was show him the list of one and two-gamers coming through and he cried for a week.” I feel his pain. There are rookies peaking all over the place and hardly a yelp of help on the horizon, especially in the midfield. Some coaches are even considering downgrading to yet-to-debut $77kers, just to pocket the cash from their fattened-up cash cows. To see just how bad the situation has become, let’s move on to the three-or-more gamers.

Three-or-more gamers

With more rookies in the red zone (higher breakeven than average) this week than any previous week, it’s obvious that many of the kids from our original line-ups have served their time and are ready to be shipped off. Popular picks like Tom Scully (BE 104, avg 72), Gumbleton (BE 79, avg 56), Jack Trengove (BE 78, avg 75), Alex Silvagni (BE 62, avg 64), Dustin Martin (BE 55, avg 62) and Nason (BE 53, avg 61) have breakevens higher or just below their averages. Of course, last week I was rabbiting on about the big drop about to be suffered by Brisbane’s Todd Banfield before he busted out a ton and sent his BE spiralling back down to 44. They’re unpredictable beasts, these rookies.

Aside from Banfield, the best scores came from both surprising and unsurprising sources, with Fremantle forward Nathan Fyfe outscoring his previous best by 33 points to rack up a Warnie-like (the cricket one, not the legendary DT one) 99 not out, while his teammate Michael Barlow was his typically awesome self by compiling a lusty 97. Midfield pair Ben Howlett and Jack Trengove also reached the 90s, while there were 80s all around for forward threesome Cameron Hitchcock, James Podsiadly and Jarrad Grant.

Two gamers

To avoid getting into fights, Barry Hall needs Velcro footy boots. To avoid losing cash, we need decent downgrade options. It doesn’t look like either is likely, especially if it’s the midfield or backs that you need to make the trade. In the two-gamer category, we normally have a bunch of young bucks on the precipice of their first gigantic price rise, but it’s slim pickings this week, to be honest. Three of the four players in the shop window are forwards, and the other – Wayde Skipper – is a ruck, so no point bothering with him. Of the aforementioned forwards, St Kilda’s Nick Heyne has moderate-to-poor future job prospects, with guys like fringe-dwellers Armitage, Geary and Eddy hoping to force their way back in, and has scored lowly at any rate with a 40 and 35 to date, while Henry Playfair is surely no more than a placeholder for Daniel Bradshaw at Sydney. You’d expect Josh Smith (or Jesse White even) would be putting pressure on Playfair to hold his spot even before Bradshaw returns from his three-week knee injury anyway. If it’s security you want, Melbourne’s penultimate no.1 pick is probably your best bet, but you’ll have to pay extra to bring Jack Watts on board. Watts has impressed far more in his sophomore season than he did last year, but costs $145k, which means you’ll clear just $83k if you’re downgrading Gumbleton, for instance. While that’s not usually considered sufficient profit to sacrifice a trade, it might just have to do for those wanting to ditch Tadgh Kennelly for Ryan Hargrave or Sam Fisher before their prices leap, or those simply fed up with the diarrhea being dished up by Gumby on a regular basis (yeah, I realise his sh*t was a point better than Brown’s round-nine skidmark).

One gamers

When it rains it pours is a pretty daft cliché, but it’s gone past midnight so I’m done being clever. The point? There’s a flood of forwards at the moment, with three of the five rookie-priced players to debut in round nine listed as FWDs by the DT gods. They were Jack Gunston ($89k) at Adelaide, Nathan O’Keefe ($94k) at North Melbourne and comeback kid Austin Wonaeamirri ($138k) at Melbourne. Wheel Of Fortune fans (an oxymoron, surely) will argue that Wonaeamirri costs so much because of all those vowels, but the rest of us know it’s because he racked up some tasty scores in his rookie year of 2008. He’ll have to do better than the 47 he put up on Saturday night to convince us he’s worth the investment this time around, although neither Gunston nor O’Keefe made much of a case with 36 and 58 respectively. Outside of the forwards, we also witnessed the debut of St Kilda ruck Rhys Stanley, who looked okay in the pre-season but will be ostracised due to his position, and Sydney defender Campbell Heath. It was eventually finding Heath’s name at the end of this list of downgrade options that quelled the tears of that little boy. A definite bright spark amongst the muck, Heath is well regarded by the Sydney leadership group (at least, that’s what my research assistant Ossie tells me) and scored a promising 71 on debut against Fremantle. It’s not all good, however, with the Swans needing to find room for Shane Mumford and, at some point, Ben McGlynn and Craig Bird. Plus there’s the blokes demanding a call-up from below with 54-possession games (Matt O’Dwyer) and seven-goal efforts (Trent Dennis-Lane). Interesting times ahead at Sydney for us rookie watchers.

1,299 Comments

Patto.
May 26, 2010 • 6:25 pm

Wona or Playfair or N O’Keefe? Will Wona play every game form now????
- smasher
  May 26, 2010 • 6:47 pm
  
  NONE, your best bet is probably playfair from those three IMO
  - brad16
    May 26, 2010 • 6:52 pm
    
    DONT GET WONA! FOR AN EXTRA & K U CAN GET JACK WATTS!!!!! GET HIM INSTEAD!!!!
    - brad16
      May 26, 2010 • 7:04 pm
      
      7k*
      - Gerryboy
        May 26, 2010 • 9:48 pm
        
        I’m worried about Playfairs job security, think I’ll go Jack watts, 40K more but good job security, Roberts is my other bench player hence me going for Watts
brad16
May 26, 2010 • 6:37 pm

i need a forward this week to afford montagna. Leaning towards nathen o’keefe. wats ur opinions?
- brad16
  May 26, 2010 • 6:45 pm
  
  actually who would you choose? o keefe wona or playfair? by the way nathen okeefe!
  - the zohan
    May 26, 2010 • 6:46 pm
    
    i went playfair last week, he played last week with bradshaw and kennely in the team so he looks like he will stay for a little bit longer at least.
    - Gerryboy
      May 26, 2010 • 9:49 pm
      
      he’ll play till Bradshaw comes back, then it might be a problem
the zohan
May 26, 2010 • 6:40 pm

looking to upgrade kennely, can afford any defender other than goddard
Who would you pick? Im thinking either

Scotland
Carrazo
Gilbert
Lake
Kelly
- brad16
  May 26, 2010 • 6:44 pm
  
  wat defenders do you have?
  - the zohan
    May 26, 2010 • 6:45 pm
    
    hodge, enright, duffield, malsexy, hargrave, heath shaw
    - smasher
      May 26, 2010 • 6:48 pm
      
      defn carrazo, he is a gun
      - the zohan
        May 26, 2010 • 6:50 pm
        
        yes im liking carrazos lowest score of 81. The only question is ‘is he better than james kelly’??
    - brad16
      May 26, 2010 • 6:49 pm
      
      in my opinion i would go jack grimes. he is just a gun already!
dt lad
May 26, 2010 • 6:51 pm

119,500k and 11 trades left :)
Want to trade out J.Macdonald cause he scores shit and gets dropped. Kennelly cause hes injured and scoring average. Team is set except for backs.
Backs are : Hodge, Enright, Carazzo, Gilbee, Water, Kennelly, Macdonald. (Webberly & Heath)

Option 1: kennelly – Hargrave & Macdonald – Duffield, is hargrave back to good?
Option 2: Kennelly – Fisher & Macdonald – Shaw

leaning to option 2…..
ideas and feedback are very welcome…. :)
- brad16
  May 26, 2010 • 7:05 pm
  
  option 1 i would do. if i were u i would try to squeeze grimes in there.
  - dt lad
    May 26, 2010 • 7:15 pm
    
    really? u would prefere duffman and hargrave over shaw and sammy fisher?
    duffman is fine but hargraves 50′s are a worry
    - brad16
      May 26, 2010 • 7:22 pm
      
      like i said try to squeeze in grimes somehow!
brad16
May 26, 2010 • 6:59 pm

my team as it stands

trades:13 cash:$ 7 800

Backs:hodge, goddard,enright,malsexy,waters,shaw, hargrave. bench silvani, webberly.

Mids:swan, gibbs, boyd, bartel, ziebell,barlow. BENCH jetta and martin

Ruck: sandilands, jamar BENCH warnock, bass

forwards: goodes,gia,higgens,franklin,didak,pods, mayne BENCH rockliffe and gumby

how am i looking?

this weeks trades:
mayne to either nathen okeefe or playfair
ziebell to montagna

next weeks trades:
silvagni to cambell heath
gumby to ryan okeefe
- brad16
  May 26, 2010 • 6:59 pm
  
  and then probs get cox for jamar
  - dt lad
    May 26, 2010 • 7:18 pm
    
    i would try to trade mayne up not down… makes more sense
    - brad16
      May 26, 2010 • 7:21 pm
      
      but i need to trade mayne don this week to get the cash for montagna.
- the zohan
  May 26, 2010 • 7:15 pm
  
  yeah looking good, strong team after those next few trades.
the zohan
May 26, 2010 • 7:28 pm

Narrowed it down to three guns but can’t decide which one to choose

GILBERT – most expensive at the start of the year, st’s have alot of home games to gun
SCOTLAND \
scotland having a better start to the season but carrazo is a gun.
CARRAZO /

???
- brad16
  May 26, 2010 • 7:34 pm
  
  get Jack Grimes
  - the zohan
    May 26, 2010 • 7:36 pm
    
    i don’t want to get Jack Grimes, he’s only scored 2 100s this year and has more bad weeks than these 3.
  - Nath
    May 26, 2010 • 10:11 pm
    
    Obviously he doesn’t want to get J Grimes and there are thousands of people who all agree with only 16000 picking him!
    I would definitely go Carrazzo (lowest score of 81)… but to throw a spanner in the works you could also look at getting Sam Fisher who’s price has dropped considerably (-51k) and is set to go back up the ladder.
Ike
May 26, 2010 • 8:08 pm

holy crap, i was hoping for a miracle here, I wanted to do a double this week to one of Sammy Fisher or NDS, need some major help as I dropped out of the top 1000 this week due to that friggin Irishman. I currently have Kennelly/Webberley on the bench with Goose/Hunt playing. Will this do?

Anyway, i wanted to do one of the following trades:

Kennelly to Fisher, or
Martin/Bastinac to NDS.

But don’t have the cash to do either straight out, with both players looking to rise beyond good value this week, is there any other option for me to get to one of these players????! Or has anyone considering keeping Kennelly on the bench and playing him out this season (for when he comes back)? I know there is midfield talent out there so not worried about NDS, but I worry someone like Fisher wont be around at that price ever again. I’m shitty at myself for picking up Joey instead of NDS last week as I would’ve have that extra $’s to afford Fisher this week. Oh well the beauty of DT!

Heath’s score was promising, but with Moore, McGlynn etc coming back in in coming weeks, there is no chance of him sticking around.
- Carnage
  May 26, 2010 • 8:32 pm
  
  Another thing you might want to consider, do you think which ever back your replacing with fisher will score closer to fishers score than Martin/Bastinac will score to NDS, to get the most points from the trade?
Boak.
May 26, 2010 • 8:21 pm

Does anyone know when Brisbane rookies Jesse O’Brien and Bryce Retzlaff are gonna make their debut? Another Lions defender (Adcock) went down last round.
Carnage
May 26, 2010 • 8:24 pm

As Chook wrote in the last paragraph, have you considered downgrading a fwd to say Jack Watts ect.
That is if you have enough cover and a cashed up cow?
- Carnage
  May 26, 2010 • 8:24 pm
  
  Sorry response to Ike
  - Ike
    May 27, 2010 • 6:36 pm
    
    Cheers yeah, I’ve considered Watts, but expensive for someone to trade down to as a bench option
    - Ike
      May 27, 2010 • 9:41 pm
      
      Ok, scrap that last comment, I’ve gone Watts, ended up trading down Balla for Watts – lost my patience for Balla and had Rockliff and Danger sitting on the bench. Allowed me to trade Kennelly to Fisher.
      
      Figured NDS is great value, but plenty of value in the coming weeks in the mids with Gibbs/Murphy etc pretty low and you’ll always pick up a cheap prem mid at some stage – hopefully Martin will hit his straps and start giving us some bigger scores.
      
      On another note, where the bloody hell is Mitch Banner?!
Kevinf21
May 26, 2010 • 9:26 pm

who to trade out of westhoff or gumby

want to get in goodesy

cheers
- Nath
  May 26, 2010 • 10:16 pm
  
  Why would you trade out Westhoff? he is in Ports best 22 and will play each week unless injured and can be a decent 7th backman. I am a bombers fan, but definitely would look at getting rid of Gumby out of the two…injury prone and can score a measly 17 so is only worthy of really bench cover!
  Basically, get rid of Gumby :)
ProudLion1991
May 26, 2010 • 10:30 pm

Might wake one more week & trade Nason down to Campbell Heath if he shows something again this week..
Barra
May 26, 2010 • 10:30 pm

who has the best job security between Nathan O’Keefe and Playfair??
also, who will rack up the most points??
(keep in mind O’Keefe got his 58 in his 1st ever game in a blow out vs the bulldogs)
baconb
May 26, 2010 • 11:45 pm

This is my projected teams just 2 trades away from it now.

projected backline: Shaw, Waters, Fisher, Carrots , Hodge, Goddard (bench currently Hunt, Webberly)
Mids – Hayes, Ablett (c ), bartel , selwood , pendlebry, barlow (shuey / kaylor right now)
rucks hille – sandi (lobbee, warnock)
forwards – Pav / Rok/ Betts / Pods / Gia / Brennan / (bench – Davis / balla )

What you guys think?
benji
May 27, 2010 • 6:45 am

looking to upgrade martin this week to either bartel, montagna and dalsanto (all captain material), do i go for dalsanto who is underpriced or the walk up captain in bartel
Kemo
May 27, 2010 • 11:00 am

Help!!!

Based on the BE’s of my Rookies it’s time for me to downgrade / upgrade Trengove + Nic Nat; choices for mid’s seem to be a little slim at present and I am considering 2 options for this week, with the intention of completing my mid’s by upgrading Howlett to GAJ in Rnd11 to smash my mate in our league game (It’s as big as winning the league to us).

Mid’s are: Swan, Bartel, Boyd, Stanton, Barlow, Trengove (Howlett, Shuey)

Option 1

Trengove – Armstrong
Nic Nat – Hille

Option 2

Trengove – Stevenson
Nic Nat – Hille

Nic Nat will drop in price and I’ve read he will be rested in the next couple of weeks; Hille is on fire and looks the logical replacement for Nic Nat, with Sandilands as my other RCK.

WIth no certainty of when Shuey will be back I will need some sort of cover for my mid’s and not sure Armstrong is that man; he does however pocket me around $50k extra and if Ablett drops $30k this week, the price increase of Howlett could see me do a straight trade for GAJ, saving me an all important trade.

$94k with 6 trades…

Thoughts???
- leegend
  May 27, 2010 • 11:24 am
  
  Nic shouldn’t move too much I wouldn’t think and Hille will more than likely come back down unless he keeps pumping 150s. With 6 trades left, you might need to save that 1.
  
  Otherwise, on averages, GAJ will drop the next 2 weeks and Howlett will rise so that seems like a fair time to do that trade
Brett
May 28, 2010 • 4:05 pm

boys and girls, please wait until the sunday teams are finalised. geelong could rest half their team and everyones favourite downgrade target campbell heath is on a 7 man bench. you don’t want to do a warnie and pick danny hughes after 1 game. perhaps think of this week as a no trade round, no rookies worth downgrading to, because in my opinion they all have poor job security. if you have cash get rid of kennelly.
Birdy
May 28, 2010 • 4:59 pm

Adam goodes looks like a good upgrade this week 360k on back to back hundreds set to rise in price, as hes cheap as for his scores. i upgraded grundy to him which probably wasnt a great trade. but i still think goodes is great value.

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