Weekend Forecast – Round 8

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Everything was looking fine for most of the week, with not many coaches having to plan for forced trades, but then yesterday happened. It started with probably the biggest issue with the most traded in player Greg Clark entering HS Protocols after his impressive debut last Friday night. Then when teams dropped a few other popular names created more havoc. Matt Crouch, who wasn’t too much of a headache scoring his 80’s and 90’s was dropped from the team, creating a forced trade for his coaches, Marcus Bontempelli was named out as managed, and George Hewett wasn’t named after many coaches thought he would be back in after missing last week with a cork, but he will be missing a second week with that cork. Now a lot of coaches will be having to deal with at least 1 forced trade this week.

 

Now, lets get into the Weekend Forecast.

 

Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 11°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Port Adelaide

IN

 

OUT

Xavier Duursma (Omitted)

Western Bulldogs

IN

Buku Khamis, Anthony Scott

OUT

Mitch Wallis (Injured), Marcus Bontempelli (Managed), Josh Schache (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Bailey Smith

Even though his last 2 scores haven’t been huge (92 and 100), his game time is still high (92% in his last 2). Put that together with plenty of CBA’s, his high scoring will be back on track sooner rather than later, and it could very well be against Port tonight, and is a great differntial pick as a VC with a high ceiling.

Zak Butters

Has had a difficult few weeks but looked better last week, particularly in the first half where he scored 51 points. He was equal 2nd for CBA’s last week with 9, and I hopefully he can get plenty of time in the midfield tonight.

Robbie McComb

With Greg Clark out this week, Robbie McComb is probably your no.1 rookie downgrade option for the week. After a quiter debut against Adelaide in round 6, McComb was a lot busier last round against Essendon, gathering 21 disposals and kicking 2 goals for 83 points. Mature body that should stay in the team for at least a few more weeks to make us some more cash and could prove to be handy this week if he scores well.

Other players to watch: Dan Houston, Jack Macrae, Connor Rozee, Caleb Daniel, Sam Hayes, Ollie Wines, Josh Dunkley, Adam Treloar

Fremantle vs North Melbourne @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 18°C, clear

Team Lineups

Fremantle

IN

Jye Amiss, Heath Chapman, Liam Henry, Sean Darcy, Hayden Young

OUT

Michael Fredrick (HS Protocols), Travis Colyer (HS Protocols), Lloyd Meek (HS Protocols), Griffin Logue (HS Protocols), Blake Acres (HS Protocols), Rory Lobb (HS Protocols)

North Melbourne

IN

Aidan Corr, Ben McKay, Jed Anderson

OUT

Jack Mahony (Omitted), Aiden Corr (Injured), Nick Larkey (Suspension), Miller Bergman (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Nathan O’Driscoll

His scoring has been down since his 109 four weeks ago, with scores of 68, 56 and 63. Still making heaps of money, but his breakeven is now up to 31 and may not make us much more. But he does have a good matchup against North Melbourne on Friday night, and with Blake Acres missing this week, he will have a wing all to himself, so if he can get us an 80+ tonight, he should keep his cash generation ticking over for a few more weeks with good matchups to come.

Will Brodie

Bit disappointing last week with his first score under 76 all season with a 64, but it was against Geelong in Geelong. He should score better tonight in a good matchup against North, with Gold Coast, Collingwood and Melbourne in his next 3, I think we can just hold him until his bye comes in round 14.

Jason Horne-Francis

Was on most people’s mind to trade out this week, but forced trades likely means you will be holding. If you can trade, I dont see him making much more cash with a breakeven of 68, which he hasnt scored over since round 4. I think he should still be solid against Fremantle, and hopefully can score a 70+ to make some more cash, but he has done his job already.

Other players to watch: Paul Curtis, Tarryn Thomas, Andrew Brayshaw, Jye Amiss, Sean Darcy, Todd Goldstein

 

Richmond vs Collingwood @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 14°C, light rain expected (73% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Richmond

IN

Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin

OUT

Sydney Stack (Omitted), Jack Ross (Omitted), Riley Collier-Dawkins (Omitted)

Collingwood

IN

Oliver Henry, Trent Bianco

OUT

Jack Madgen (Omitted), Callum Brown (Omitted), Reef McInnes (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Jordan De Goey

It was no surprise that he had his lowest score last week after being sick all week, but he still attended 21 CBA’s which was a positive. He now has a breakeven of 114 and dropped 22k last week so we can all hold off for a couple more weeks before we bring him into our teams, but I think he will be a top 6 forward with the midfield role that comes in cheap.

Jayden Short

When I saw his name in the centre when teams came out last Friday, I thought it was just one of those things that happen when teams are named and a player is named in a different position. Well it turns out it wasn’t, as he attended the 2nd most CBA’s for Richmond last week with 23. If he is playing midfield now, he scoring could go through the roof, and could quite easily maintain his 109.1 average for the remainder of the season.

Nick Daicos

Stay tuned to the news as there is a chance Nick Daicos could be a late out. Apparently has been ill this week, and there have been rumours of a sore foot and a potential rest, so this could be the week he misses. If he plays and isn’t affected, he should be solid against Richmond who give up points, and it would be handy to keep Daicos and move him at his round 14 bye, but our hands could be forced.

Other players to watch: Nick Vlastuin, Taylor Adams, Dustin Martin, Darcy Cameron, Jack Crisp, Maurice Rioli, Aiden Begg

 

Sydney vs Gold Coast @ SCG

Weather Forecast

Around 19°C, mostly sunny

Team Lineups

Sydney

IN

Paddy McCartin, Logan McDonald

OUT

James Bell (Medi-Sub), Harry Cunningham (Injured), Sam Reid (Omitted)

Gold Coast

IN

Rory Thompson, Wil Powell

OUT

Darcy Macpherson (Omitted), Alex Davies (Omitted), Jeremy Sharp (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Touk Miller

Back to back scores of 111 and 140 now has Touk ripe for the picking. After his 3 sub 100 scores, he is 885k, down 139k from his starting price and has a very reachable breakeven of 95. Sydney at the SCG are tough, but he did score 142 and 133 against Sydney last year, meaning he should be solid again and a great upgrade target this week.

Luke Parker

Another player who is ripe for the picking is Luke Parker, who only gained forward status a couple of weeks ago. His last 3 have been impresive as well (123, 93, 119), and looks back to playing mostly midfield with Sydney’s forward line back. Should be a top 6 forward, underpriced, breakeven of 75, and a good matchup against Gold Coast this week.

Isaac Heeney

It was no coincidence that Papley returned last week and Heeney had his most CBA’s since round 1 with 11. Papley and Buddy back, along with Sydney playing a back up ruck in McLean (probably Ladhams when Hickey is back) means Heeney has the luxury to play more in the midifeld and further up the ground. He has been great so far this season, with only 1 score below 95 all season, and things could get even better from here.

Other players to watch: Jake Lloyd, Paddy McCartin, Justin McInerney, Callum Mills, Rory Thompson, Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson

 

GWS vs Geelong @ Manuka Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 11°C, mostly sunny

Team Lineups

GWS

IN

 

OUT

Matt De Boer (Medi-Sub)

Geelong

IN

Francis Evans, Cooper Stephens, Quinton Narkle, Patrick Dangerfield

OUT

Luke Dahlhaus (Medi-Sub), Joel Selwood (Injured), Shaun Higgins (Injured), Oliver Dempsey (Omitted), Max Holmes (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Lachie Whitfield

Played quite a bit of time forward last week and kicked 3 goals for his 99 points. Has been really consistent since round 2, scoring between 88 and 101, which is great, but not the Whitfield we normally see. I expect when the likes of Brent Daniels and Daniel Lloyd are back in the team, we will see Whitfield play the majority of game time on the wing, but until then, he could be spending time forward.

Stephen Coniglio

Hasn’t been attened many CBA’s and has played exclusively forward the last few weeks, but his scoring has suffered too much (last 3 scores of 98, 79 and 105). If he continues to play forward, he could be a guy to move on at some point, maybe around his bye, but he is low priority with many other problems for coaches at the moment.

Tom Stewart

I didn’t think Tom Stewart had a ceiling of 140+, let alone 150+! He went bananas last week, with 40 disposals and 14 marks for a 157, and is now underpriced based on the ceiling which hasn’t been there. His last 4 scores have been 102, 95, 95 and 157, and now has a season average of 100.3. Breakeven is only 58 and will continue to rise in price, and is right in the mix to be a top 6 defender.

Other players to watch: Isaac Cumming, Francis Evans, Mitch Duncan, Patrick Dangerfield, Cooper Stephens, Tim Taranto, Sam De Koning, Braydon Preuss, Josh Kelly, Tom Green, Cam Guthrie

 

Essendon vs Hawthorn @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Essendon

IN

Nick Bryan, Nick Hind

OUT

Kaine Baldwin (Omitted), Jake Stringer (Injured), Nik Cox (Injured)

Hawthorn

IN

Josh Ward, Denver Grainger-Barras, Harry Morrison

OUT

Conor Nash (Managed), Daniel Howe (Medi-Sub), Liam Shiels (Managed), Connor Macdonald (Managed)

 

Players to Watch

Tom Mitchell

The Pig has been a name many coaches have kept their eye on over the past few weeks as he is cheap, but we need his CBA’s to be higher. Attended 15 of 28 CBA’s (53.6%) but we need him to be at least 65%+ of the CBA’s before we can trust his role and become an option. Keep an eye over the next few weeks to see if he does get more CBA’s.

Nic Martin

Has been solid as a rock, with another 91 points against the Bulldogs. This season his lowest score was a 68, and that was his only score below 70. Breakeven is still 42, meaning if he can keep scoring his 75+ points, he will continue to make good money up until his bye in round 12. Good matchup too this week against the Hawks.

James Sicily

Many people picked the Sic Dawg at the start of the year thinking he could average around the 85 point mark and be a guy we move on sometime around the byes. However, he has looked better than ever, averaging 98.9 for the season, which ranks his as the 9th highest defender based on average ahead of the likes of Lachie Whitfield and Jake Lloyd. At the moment, he looks everything of a premium defender and a season long keeper, and a good matchup against Essendon this week means he should be great once again.

Other players to watch: Jackson Callow, Dylan Moore, Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett, Josh Ward, Ben Hobbs

 

Brisbane vs West Coast @ The Gabba

Weather Forecast

Around 20°C, overcast with rain showers at times (60% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Brisbane

IN

 

OUT

 

West Coast

IN

 

OUT

 

 

Players to Watch

Lachie Neale

Another massive 142 last week from the superstar that is Lachie Neale. He continued his fantastic season to date with his 2nd 140+ score, and has an average of 114.9, which has him as the 5th best player based on average. Only has 3 scores below 100 this season, 86, 98 and 96. In fact, those 3 scores are his only scores below 118 which is huge, and with his next 3 games against West Coast, Adelaide and Hawthorn, I expect him to continue to dominate and be a popular captain selection.

Dayne Zorko

Looks to be back to his midfield/forward role with Keidean Coleman back in the team, and playing much more game time the past 2 weeks (82% and 85% game time respectively). The injury risk is there, but he is available as a defender, cheap at 742k, and his next 3 are West Coast, Adelaide and Hawthorn. High risk, high reward, and he could be huge over the next 3 weeks.

Hugh Dixon

Should be named as the no.1 ruck with the carnage continuing at West Coast. If he is indeed the no.1 ruck, he could be a guy you can play on field this week to cover a George Hewett or a player missing who you are holding (if you can move some players around via dpp). Should hopefully score a 50+ this week.

Other players to watch: Jarryd Lyons, Daniel Rich, Hugh McCluggage, Keidean Coleman, Patrick Naish, Andrew Gaff, Tim Kelly

Melbourne vs St Kilda @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 20°C, mostly cloudy with potential showers early (49% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Melbourne

IN

Harrison Petty, Alex Neal-Bullen, Kysaiah Pickett, Bailey Laurie, Tom Sparrow, Luke Jackson

OUT

Kade Chandler (Medi-Sub), Jake Melksham (Omitted), Joel Smith (Injured)

St Kilda

IN

Darragh Joyce, Ryan Byrnes, Zak Jones, Rowan Marshall

OUT

Jarrod Lienert (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Max Gawn

Big Maxy continued his amazing form against the Hawks last week with 149, his biggest score of the season. Since he scored back to back 79’s to start the year, his scores that have followed: 101, 140, 132, 119 and 149. He is up against the Marshall/Ryder combo this week, but I don’t think it will matter and he should be good once again.

Clayton Oliver

Was big again last week with a 126, but it looked like it was going to be a lot bigger. Since round 2, besides the 68 he scored against Port, he has scored between 111 and 129, showing that consistency that has made him an uber premium the last few years. Priced at 899k which is expensive, but he looks great and a good option to bring in.

Jack Steele

Now, he scored 115 last week, but I think that score is bigger than what it looks. In wet weather-like conditons in Cairns, only Steele and Ross (111) were the only 2 players to score over 100. In his last 4 games, he has scored between 110 and 130, and he is starting to warm up, and should be good again this week against Melbourne who do give up points.

Other players to watch: Jake Bowey, Jade Gresham, Angus Brayshaw, Christian Petracca, Nasiah, Wanganeen-Milera, Jack Sinclair

 

Carlton vs Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

Carlton

IN

Jordan Boyd, Zac Williams, Paddy Dow, Jesse Motlop

OUT

Liam Stocker (Suspension)

Adelaide

IN

Mitchell Hinge, Luke Pedlar, Ben Davis, James Rowe, Will Hamill, Jake Soligo

OUT

Matt Crouch (Omitted), Ned McHenry (Injured), Brodie Smith (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Jack Carroll

If you already have McComb, I think Jack Carroll is your downgrade target. Looked good last week in his debut with an 87 (also kicked the first goal of the match). I am still unsure of his job security once George Hewett returns, but I think if he can hold his spot past this week, he will make some good money.

Patrick Cripps

Crippa is just too good at the moment, and if you don’t own him, you need to get onboard! If you remove the 36 he scored in one quarter against Gold Coast (that looked to be another 120), then he is averaging 124.2, meaning he would be the highest averaging player so far this season ahead of Bailey Smith (122 average). His lowest score in those games is 112 in round one, and hasn’t scored below 123 in his other 4 games. Great matchup against the Crows this week, and I don’t see anyone slowing him down!

Rory Laird

Lairdy is arguable to most consitent player going around, scoring 118 last week against the Giants. He also played his most amount of game time last week (83%) showing he is back to full fitness, and I love him as a target this week and he is only owned by 1.3%. A tougher run coming up but it really doesn’t matter when he just gets it done every week against anyone.

Other players to watch: Sam Docherty, Jordan Dawson, Corey Durdin, Reilly O’Brien, Ben Keays

 

My Trades

Macdonald -> McComb/Carroll

M Crouch -> Heeney

 

My trades were simple at the start of the week, Macdonald and Horne-Francis out for Carroll and Heeney, and luckely they haven’t changed too much with the carnage this week. I was always going Macdonald out, but it was for Carroll as I couldn’t afford McComb with my initial trades. However, with Matt Crouch being dropped, I can now decide who I want out of McComb and Carroll, and I think it is McComb purely for the mature body and should hold for a few weeks. I will then go Matt Crouch up to Isaac Heeney, who I have wanted all season. He has looked the best I have seen him, and I was really encouraged by last weeks 11 CBA’s, which was his most since round 1, and it was no coincidence that it was in Papley’s first game of the season. e was talked to play midfield in preseason, and I think will see more of that with both Papley and Franklin, along with Sydney having a backup ruck up forward with McLean (I assume Ladhams when Hickey is back) in the team. I could go Parker as he is underpriced and will also be a top 6 forward, but I want Heeney more. With Hewett being out, I will hold again and use either McComb’s score if he scores well, or play Hugh Dixon on field as he should be the no.1 ruck for West Coast this week and be good for a 50+ hopefully. The only thing that would derail that would be if Nick Daicos is out, which would mean I bring in a defender as I wouldn’t want to play McCartin or De Koning on field over Dixon. So in that case, I would trade Daicos and keep Crouch for the week to play a McComb/Dixon and there are a couple of options I like who are cheap in Tom Stewart and Dayne Zorko, but I think I would go straight to the top and bring in Jayden Short who looks great, either down back or in the midfield like he did last week.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions about your starting teams, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for round 8!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang