Unlucky not to have a trophy in their cabinet from the last few years, the Saints have (in the past) been a reliable team from which we could safely pick Dream Team stars for our teams. All of this changed in 2011. With the photo scandal; the ongoing schoolgirl saga; a long term injury to their star player; and Ross Lyon’s anti-DT game plan – the stars did not align for the St Kilda football club. However with a new coach and a renewed faith in each other, expect things to improve in 2012. With so many changes, the question on the lips of many will be: is the premiership window still open?

Whilst the early calls are that they will slide in the new season, the St Kilda camp are buoyed with a new confidence; and with a drama free offseason they will look to prove their critics wrong in 2012 like Geelong did last year. New coach Scott Watters should bring a more DT friendly, faster style of play to the table – meaning many of our fallen stars from 2011 should once again rise from the ashes to become DT stars again. Read on to find out who will fire in 2012.

Possible Best 22

B:       Gilbert, Wilkes, Clarke
HB:    Goddard, Fisher, Polo
C:       Steven, Dal Santo, Montagna
HF:     Peake, Riewoldt, Gram
F:        Milne, Koschitzke, Schneider
Foll:    McEvoy, Hayes, Jones

Int:      Blake, Armitage, Ray, Dempster
Em:     Siposs, Geary, Simpkin

Fringe Players – Gwilt, Stanley, Winmar, Crocker, Cripps, Archer, Ledger, Webster
DT Relevant Rookies – Wilkes, Markworth, Saad, Milera, Ross, Newnes, Lever, Newnes, Ross, Andreoli

Recently Retired – Gardiner
Delisted – McQualter, Gamble, Heyne, Cahill, Johnson, Eddy, Baker
Traded – Walsh, Lynch

2012 Draw & Byes

The Saints have a fairly favourable draw this year. They only play 2 top 8 teams from 2011 twice (Carlton and Sydney) whilst also doubling up against Melbourne, the Bulldogs and 2011 whipping boys Gold Coast. Their start to the year is particularly interesting, playing the Power, Suns, Dogs, Freo and Demons to open the season, whilst also playing Richmond, Adelaide and the Suns (again) before the bye. This will mean that we should see some big scores in the early part of the season from the Red, White and Black. Another favourable thing is that they only have to travel interstate 6 times in 2012, playing in Melbourne from rounds 2-7 as well as their final 5 games for the year. This should allow plenty of time for the team to get settled and put together some decent form between games during those periods.

St Kilda shares the bye with the Blues, Hawks, Tigers, Power and Suns in 2012. This will mean coaches will have to tread carefully when selecting Saints players in their team. For those wanting both Goddard and Fisher in the backline, think twice then about Deledio and Suckling as they will all be out in what looms as a miserable week for Dream Teamers everywhere. Similarly, watch out when picking stars like Montagna, Hayes, Dal Santo and Riewoldt as they will be joined on the sidelines in week 13 by other AFL stars like Ablett, Murphy, Judd, Franklin and Martin.

Defenders

Brendan Goddard – DEF – $474,200 – 2011 avg – 95.9 (22 games)

After a poor start to the year where he fell to around $325k at one point, God finished the year strongly to be the 3rd best defender overall (behind my boy Bryce Gibbs and teammate Heath Scotland) and will start 2012 as the 2nd most expensive backman. Fortunately for us, last year was disappointing by Goddard’s high standards; and he will be looking to improve his average closer to his 2010 average of 113 in the new season. He is consistent, durable and has a high ceiling plus has a favourable draw – what’s not to like?

Verdict: Capable of great feats and startling consistency; this guy should be your first lock in your backline and is a definite must have in 2012.
Expected average for 2012: 110

Sam Fisher – DEF – $415,500 – 2011 avg – 84 (22 games)

A classic rebounding defender; and a best & fairest/All-Australian player – Fisher has been St Kilda’s most reliable defender for the last 5 years. Equally adept at shutting down the play as he is at creating it, Fish has been extremely consistent and durable dating back to his breakout year in 2006. Whilst he is turning 30 this year, he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. In a year where the Saints should bounce back DT wise, expect his numbers to rise again up to a 90 average.

The numbers:

• Has only missed 6 games in7 years since 2005
• Has average 85+ in every year since 2007
• Still averaged 84 in a disappointing year for the Saints
• Scored over 85 ppg a reliable 14 times in his 22 H&A appearances in 2011

Verdict: As durable as they come, with a consistent scoring rate; Fisher is a reliable pick in your defence alongside Goddard and Deledio.
Expected average for 2012: 90

Midfielders

Nick Dal Santo – MID – $512,400 – 2011 avg – 103.6 (22 games)

Nicky Dal had arguably his best year of both AFL football and DT in 2011. Another one of the Saint’s seemingly evergreen ageing stars, NDS showed himself to be the Saints most valuable player. Like both Goddard and Fisher, Dal Santo has durability embedded into his blood, only missing 3 games in the last 8 years! He has a huge ceiling – when he is on, he can rack them up like nobody (39 d, 7 m, 6 tk and 1.0 v GC in rnd 19 = 154 points). Whilst he is fairly consistent, Dal Santo is susceptible to a hard tag every now and then resulting in at times ugly scores (51 v Hawks in round 8). But if you can put up with the odd bad score, he is again likely to be the best midfield option at the Saints in 2012.

Verdict: Based on durability and scoring ability, you can’t go wrong with NDS. And with the Saints great draw this year, don’t expect him to drop off at all.
Expected average for 2012: 105

Leigh Montagna – MID – $485,000 – 2011 avg – 98 (20 games)

Ahhh Joey… After a sizzling 2009 and 2010 that saw him average 116 and 112 respectfully, many coaches picked him up last year as a reliable option in their midfield. Unfortunately, we weren’t to know what kind of carnage was about to happen. Still managing 20 games at an average of 98, Montagna was frustrating at times and definitely did not live up to previous expectations. However like Goddard, we are fortunate that this was mainly attributed to the St Kilda football club and not purely his form or injury. This means that with an improved, more DT friendly playing style, we should be able to see a better, more consistent output from Joey in 2012.

Verdict: Presents great value if he can return to his previous heights of 2009/10. At his price, Montagna has minimum risk and is a slightly cheaper option for your midfield.
Expected average for 2012: 105

Rucks

Ben McEvoy – RUC – $447,500 – 2011 avg – 90.5 (21 games)

Heading into his 5^th year in 2012, the Big Ben is ready to explode into a DT gun. Already enjoying a breakout year in 2011, he relished the additional time in the middle without now retired ruckman Michael Gardiner. While he started and finished the year a little inconsistently, this should improve in the new season as it was his first full year of AFL footy. Given he is the only recognised ruckman at the Saints with AFL experience; and without any competition from within; as well as the favourable draw in their favour – McEvoy is primed for a huuuge year.

The numbers:

• Scored 100 + eight times in 2011
• Had an amazing run of form between rounds 7 and 21 where he averaged 101
• Has a high ceiling typified by his 139 in round 11 (against Collingwood)
• Only has to play against last year’s top 8 teams multiple times twice

Verdict: All of the facts point to one thing – McEvoy will be a great pick in 2012. Priced at 90, he is great value for what he should achieve.
Expected average for 2012: 98

Forwards

Nick Riewoldt – FWD – $416,700 – 2011 avg – 84.2 (21 games)

He has been one of the first picked and most reliable forward options for the last 8 years. However 2011 was very down on his high standards. Take away 2010’s anomaly that was mainly due to his hamstring injury; as well as this year’s debacle that was St Kilda’s first half of the year; and Nick has been a DT deity since the year 2004. Since his 2^nd year, Voldt has recorded 7 seasons of 20 + games; averaged 88 a game or higher for the last 7 years straight (bar 2011); AND done so with a target on his head, constantly attracting the attention of the league best defenders. With a new coach and drama free preseason, he should feel refreshed and ready for a return to DT greatness that he had become known for circa 2010.

Verdict: I’m expecting Voldt to come out firing in 2012. With a great opening draw, he should have plenty of big scores from the very beginning.
Expected average for 2012: 95

Bargain or Breakout

Lenny Hayes – MID – $382,800 – 2011 avg – 86 (2 games)

If you haven’t already, go back and read my ‘Versus’ article to see my thoughts on Lenny. At his price he looks great value for what he is capable of. His preseason is coming along well and looks to be gearing up for the start of the season. If he’s fit, he will be an absolute steal. Priced at just 77, expect him to make some money and become a handy scorer along the way.

Verdict: Bargain. Lenny should make amends for 2011 and return a respectful average in the new season.
Expected avg for 2012: 102

Jack Steven – MID – $394,500 – 2011 avg – 79.8 (20 games)

One of the promising young midfielders in the St Kilda circle, Steven is ready to take the rains and issue in a new era in the red, white and black. Enjoying a great season where he played 20 games for a respectful average of 80, Steven is primed for more midfield time in 2012 as the Saints prepare for life after Hayes, Montagna, Dal Santo and co. If we take out 2009 where he only played 1 game; 2012 will be his 3^rd year in the AFL. With his scoring curve on the way up, expect this to continue to rise in a new season where improvement will be expected and youth will be given more chances as the year goes on.

Verdict: Breakout. Watch for Steven to spend more time in the middle during 2012 and show improvement in his numbers across the board.
Expected avg for 2012: 90

Sam Gilbert – DEF – $345,600 – 2011 avg – 69.9 (22 games)

After two great seasons as a high scoring, rebounding defender, Gilbert was badly affected by poor positioning by former coach Lyon; as well as sustained pressure following his inexplicable behaviour in last year’s offseason. His DT average dropped by over 23 points as he was forced to pinch hit in the forward line for much of the season. With a new coach, hopefully everyone comes to realise that his best football is played running of the half back flank. Gilbert will be one of many to watch in the NAB cup to see how Watters will play him in 2012. If the above comes to fruition, we should see him DT output return to premium status and be one of the best value buys of the season.

Verdict: Bargain. If Gilbert looks to reprise his 2010 role, get on early as he returns to DT prominence.
Expected avg for 2012: 88

Rookies

Beau Wilkes – DEF – $98,700

Recruited as a mature age player who is ready made to step in to the 22; Wilkes should see a lot of games in 2012 rotating between fullback and as a third tall forward. Whilst not likely to score highly, he is likely to have higher job security than many other rookies in this year’s class.

Expected games in 2012: 16 +
Expected avg: 60
Rookie rating: 7/10
Verdict: Wilkes will be a popular pick in the backline this year as he looks to fill the void in St Kilda’s team made vacant by Zac Dawson.

Jack Newnes – MID – $98,700

Taken as St Kilda’s third pick in the 2011 draft (37 overall), Newnes is a good size and could come in and fill a number of positions in the Saints team. He has a great kick, good hands and loves to tackle; if he gets a run he could be a good downgrade target. Compared by Coach Scott Watters to Lenny Hayes, Newnes is a star of the future.

Expected games in 2012: 8-10
Expected avg: 70
Rookie rating: 6/10
Verdict: Look for Newnes to earn his chance in the senior side later in the year with Watters looking to youth in 2012. He could be a great downgrade option.

Jay Lever – RUC/DEF – $98,700

The young Geelong Falcons ruck should see some time down back/fwd late in the year if an opportunity arises. Also look for him to provide some support for McEvoy by pinch hitting in the ruck towards the end on the season. Besides Rhys Stanley and an ageing Jason Blake, Lever is one of the few tall options on St Kilda’s list. Standing at 200cm, he may not score highly but could offer us with a downgrade for Stephenson or Giles mid-season.

Expected games in 2012: 4-8
Expected avg: 40
Rookie rating: 5/10
Verdict: His DPP gives him additional value as a mid-year downgrade target. Don’t expect him to give us good numbers but could offer valuable cover late in the season.

Ahmed Saad – FWD – $115,800

The pocket rocket from the Northern Bullants, Saad is an exciting prospect that only started playing AFL 5 years ago. Despite this, he managed to kick 50 goals last year from his 20 games in the VFL. Likely to get a crack at senior footy this year, Saad will add another small forward to the St Kilda arsenal. He may have to bide his time behind Milne, however like the other rookies, expect him to make an impact when he makes his inevitable debut.

Expected games in 2012: 10 +
Expected avg: 60
Rookie rating: 7/10
Verdict: If Saad gets a run early, jump on as he should be ready to play straight away.

Others to Consider

Adam Schneider [FWD, $393,000, 2011 avg – 79.5 from 20 games] – Averaging around 80 ppg and only missing 4 games in the past 3 years, expect Adam’s numbers to rise in 2012 along with the rest of the team.

Arryn Siposs [FWD, $177,100] – An accurate kick with great hands, watch for Siposs to get more opportunities in 2012 and increase his average. Priced around that of # 1 draft pick Jonathon Patton, this kid is a solid option as a cash cow.

Terry Milera [FWD, $115,800] – Another mature aged forward recruit taken to add some depth to an ageing Saints team, Milera should make his debut mid – late season and provides us with a solid downgrade target for our forward line.

Also – head to the link below for a look at stkildathunder’s previous review for a different perspective.

Click here to read stkildathunda’s preview from early January.

Thanks for reading – McRath

Chris Masten

Only a few blokes have murdered more squads in as short a period as The Mastenbator.  He has been touted as a bargain almost every year of his career from a gun rook and now a potential break out bargain.  CuzLite is a book who should be judged by his cod-ordinary cover.  He’s every bit as bad as he looks.

Why Should I pick him?

Tbetta knows his stuff and is not stupid and he rates him, so there is that.  The stats he gave us were sexy weren’t they.  You can also add that CuzLite’s ability to turn the ball over with either hand or foot means he won’t get a tag – ever.  He’s also running really far and really fast in the pre-season.

Why Shouldn’t I pick him?

Because he can’t play.  Forget the track times he’s doing.  Many, many others have proven time and again that running away from your shadow is no indication of a good scoring season ahead.  This bloke is the worst type of DT bait.  He’ll hook you in with tasty looking treats, and then stink up your squad for the rest of the year.

Summary

Think how happy you’d be to see this name in your mate’s team in league play.  Think of all the jokes you can post in the Box about how dumb that mate is to grab a can of CuzLite and open it up.  Now imagine being that mate.  It isn’t worth it, even if he pays off, someone will have paid off more.

Avoid Rating – 11/10

Patrick Dangerfield

Cue angry responses from all Adelaide fans.  “He’s a beast”, “Maybe the best athlete in the AFL”, “Outran Stevie Hill twice in one game and almost kicked goal of the year”, “Built like Hulk and runs like Bolt”.  All these things are true, and here is something else that is also true – he’s in to his fourth year this year and he’s only ever scored 100 DT points once – against Gold Coast.  I was at home sick as a dog that day and I scored 31 DT points in that game.

Why Should I Pick Him?

He’s a really, super-duper exciting talent and is another guy who is in the top shelf on the “exciting to see play” scale.  He once got 30 touches, 10 marks and 8 goals in a game.  It was under 18’s but that is still impressive.  If he ever does that in an AFL game you’ll win your league game for sure!

Why Shouldn’t I Pick Him?

Because he won’t ever have a 30 touch, 10 mark, 8 goal game in the AFL.  He’s a weapon of mass destruction but they don’t need to be used often to have an effect.  He just doesn’t accumulate.  Vince, van Berlo, Sloane and most especially Scotty T do the point scoring hard yards ahead of him.

Summary

He’s a real life stud and a DT dud.  He’s Adelaide’s Stephen Hill, he’ll excite like buggery and give you nothing in DT.  He is a DP but in this case it stands for Don’t Pick.

Avoid Rating 8/10

Heath Shaw

I’m guessing about 33% of DTers when confronted with the notion that Heater is a DT Dick would say “What?  Avoid the Heater show?  He’s a gun, a premoback and he improved his average 11 points last year”.  Another 33% would say “There is no way he has the same trouble this year, he’ll play all 22 games and his average will go up another 11points”.  The last section would say “Why am I reading another write up about Heath Shaw?  He’s a muppet.”  The last guy is spot on.

Why Should I pick Him?

Because I want you to. Because your mates want you too .Because he’ll have 6 or so  games this year when he bags a 100+ points for you. Because he is likely to play the majority of the games and his bye is a Rd 12 bye which is rare in the top priced backs.

Why Shouldn’t I Pick Him?

Mostly because you then forfeit the right to hang a steaming pile of crap on anyone else who picks him when;

a)      He snaps a hammy making sure he’s “fitter than ever” or when he’s running from the cops.

b)      He does have another bet and claims he thought the ban on betting was only for last season.

c)       He gets suspended for getting drunk with Dids and stealing a box of Seeing Eye Dog puppies.

Also because as soon as any run of good form starts, someone will lay a tag on him and he’ll disappear for a few weeks, killing your team.  He’s like one of those mythical magic rabbit thingos, as soon as anyone looks at him, he disappears.

Summary

You know how some people are as dumb as a box of spanners?  Well Heath is as dumb as a box of those people.  Heath is that rare kind of stupid, he could Stupid for Australia at the Olympics.  He could match it with anyone in the NRL off the field.  Something will happen to take him off the park this year.  Enjoy the stupid, don’t suffer from it.

Avoid Rating 7/10

Colin Sylvia

What happened?  This bloke was once DT gold, albeit for only a short time.  He was meant to make “The Leap” in to the “premo, keeper, must-have”category last year.  Now he’s a punchline at a DT comedy club.  He could out stupid Heath Shaw this year and no one would be surprised.

Why Should I Pick Him?

Well, maybe because we all know that 5 chances just isn’t enough.  Maybe this last chance was the one.  THIS time he’s learned his lesson.  Getting booted from the Aussie F-Squad for getting “Didaked” before training was the real wake-up call he needed.  He’ll be out to make amends and pay us all back for keeping the faith.

Why Shouldn’t I Pick Him?

He’s one of the rare guys in the AFL where nothing would surprise us anymore.  Take these two potential news stories for instance;

“Colin Sylvia set a DT record last night with 215 points”.

“Colin Sylvia was suspended for 15 games last night after being found at coach Mark Neeld’s house at 6am on Wednesday, in the garden, sound asleep, wearing a sock on his knob.”

It is hard to pick which of these would be harder to believe.His body is suss, his head is suss and his scoring dropped like a stone last year.  Why bother?

Summary

He should be someone else’s risk this year.

Avoid Rating 11/10

Cyril Rioli

It may be happening.  Is this finally the year?  Will we finally see it happen?  Has everything finally lined up?  Can we finally just shut up about this being Cyril Rioli’s break out DT year because this year he’ll spend more time in the midfield?

Why Should I Pick Him?

Like most teasers, he will give you a few absolute blinders.  He’ll tempt you in when you look at the history.  Look at that 159 pt game, that 143 pt game, that 151 pt game.  Imagine what’ll happen when he does that regularly by playing in the guts!

Why Shouldn’t I Pick Him?

Because he simply won’t do it regularly.  He’s an elite small forward who goes up the ground on occasions to make him harder to shut down.  Alistair Clarkson is a smart coach; he knows Rioli’s value is in the forward line wreaking havoc, not in the midfield reeking average.  He’ll push in to the midfield from time to time and he’ll have some massive games, but he’ll have many more games that leave you cold and leaking points.

Summary

He’ll woo you in and make you think you’ve won big.  Come the end of the season you’ll realise you could’ve paid 2/3 the price for the same output with some more thought.

Avoid Rating 7/10

Submitted by Tony Connors

5 Squared is a new series that will aim to give you the best advice and educated opinions on the big topics facing DT coaches. This edition features the 3 DT Talk pioneers Warnie, Roy and Calvin, rookie expert Chook of Chook’s Rooks fame, and weekly Bullets writer Tbetta.

1. Do you think Hawthorn will remain the high-scoring DT side that they were last year?

Calvin – Yeah I do, can’t see why not. But in saying that you’d be paying top dollar for the guys who went through the roof last year due to their high possession footy. I can’t see their ‘style’ of game changing one bit.

Chook – Rather than hoofing it long and hoping, Hawthorn developed their pin-point, short-kicking (and DT-lucrative) game plan to counter the zone. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few teams changed their defensive structure against the Hawks to pay a little more attention to their high-quality kickers, such as Matt Suckling, this year. At any rate, the chickens have largely flown the coup – 2011 was the year to load up on Suckers and Liam Shiels, not 2012.

Warnie – Yep! Sure thing. They will win more games this year too which will be a bonus to their scoring you’d like to think.

Tbetta – I’m not sold. While their game plan will ensure they remain one of the higher fantasy-scoring teams, I don’t think it should influence player selection like it did last year. Other clubs seemed to catch on, and you’ll notice young accumulators in Suckling (avg 98 R1-14, 80 R15-24) and Shiels (avg 111 R1-15, 88 R16-24) had significantly lower scoring over the 2nd half of the season.

Roy – I think they will win more games and their scoring will reflect that with a slight improvement from most of the relevant DTers.

2. Team Ablett or Team Swan? 

Warnie – Ahh, Team Ablett. As much as I love the fantasy pig in Swanny, Gazza has the nice draw and more ‘upside’ for the early part of the season. Swanny will grace my team a few weeks in.

Tbetta – I had always been a Swan man myself – I used to jealously despise any team that Ablett graced, especially through his golden years at Geelong. But after Gaz saved my season by stepping up in Swan’s absence in the middle of 2011, I can safely say I’m on Team Ablett.

Roy – Due to having a pre season this year, being on a rapidly improving team and having a sensational draw I say Ablett by a nose. Having said that, traditionally I’m a Pig fan so I need to find a way to get them both. Let’s face it, a team is not complete until they are both sitting there. I don’t want another year of hoping 1 of these guys have a bad game only to see 150 against their name and 300 as my opponents captain.

Chook – I’m yet to start a season with Swan and that looks unlikely to change this year. The Pig will be there by season’s end, but it’s Team Ablett for me. As a DT coach who spends more time rookie-watching than anything else, I always stuff up these “which premium?” decisions anyway. Can I say Team Shiel?

Calvin – Being the captain expert… I’m Team Both. Trying my arse off to start these guys when round 1 ticks over. Yeah they will both drop in price and others will pick them up cheaper… but I would have had them for 5 rounds before people jump on, double it as my captain! – Calvin off to a flying 2012 start!

3. Who is the one player you’ve banished to the ‘Never Again’ list – forever? 

Roy – Shaun Higgins…… words can not describe how I feel about Higgins. He has a life ban from destROY, I’d sooner pick Zac Dawson.

Chook – I ‘ve managed to avoid the Higgins and Heath Shaw pain of recent years, so I’ll finger Colin Sylvia. As a Demons supporter, I expected so much more.

Calvin – Where do I start… Higgins, Sylvia, Montagnahhh oh Montagna is cheap this year with a really good draw, but I just can’t do it out of pure hatred!

Tbetta – Normally I like to stay calm and look at every player at his merits (I mean, am I really considering Porpz again?) but the one player I refuse to touch is Higgins. Never, ever, ever again. Ever.

Warnie – There are so many, but I think Shaun Higgins has finally done his dash. Colin Sylvia a close second.

4. What are your thoughts on the ruck situation this year, given the burst of options we seem to have? 

Chook – Firstly, how nice is it to have a wide open ruck race again this year? With viable options in the premium, mid-price and rookie categories, it’s difficult to go too wrong. At the same time, nailing the “perfect” combo is perhaps harder than  ever. Mummy is tempting me, but at this stage it’s McEvoy and Stephenson/Giles, although I’ll likely wimp out before lock-out and opt for a second big gun.

Calvin – Starting one premo ruck with a cheapy. With my plans to upgrade the ‘cheapy’ to a premo come bye time. Which premo to start with… Tossing up between McEvoy and L’Berger.

Warnie – Ben McEvoy is a lock as #1 for me with Big O and Giles safely in there. Still deciding whether to play a rookie in the #2 slot, or just go a Set and Forget. Then there is the DPP I am playing with to slot Sam Rowe in there mid season.

Tbetta – I’m having some sleepless nights thinking about the ruck-line this year! I’ve always been a Set & Forget sort of guy, and all my pre-season planning has started out that way. But, with the seemingly solid job security of some of the rookies there this year, I’m actually considering going in with only one premo… Decisions, decisions, decisions.

Roy – I’m being very mindful of teams that have either recruited or have a second ruck returning from injury Eg. McIntosh and Hudson.

5. Who’s your pick for break-out player of the year? 

Warnie – As a Bombers man, I’m going to throw it out there and go with David Zaharakis. He’s a massive chance to boost his average well over 100 ppg.

Tbetta – I think it has to be someone who was regularly vested last year. Someone who can now crack the first 21 and stay there (avoiding vest-affected scores), on top of natural development. For that reason, I’m looking at Gaff and Christensen, and I’m edging towards the latter of the two at this very, very early stage.

Roy – I think Koby Stevens will have a really good year providing his body holds up and Steele Sidebottom will increase his average by at least 15 ppg.

Chook – I’m with Tbetta on this one. Christensen and Gaff loom as massive breakout candidates if they can steer clear of the green and red vests and continue their late-season form from 2011. An Angus (the bull, not Monfries) sized nut sack is required to take the punt on Gaff, given his price and position, but everyone should be clambering aboard the Christensen bandwagon.

Calvin – Swanny to break out a 140+ average ha ha… nah, maybe not so much a ‘break out’ year but a ‘Bounce Back’ year. I’m tipping big things from Browny, Porpz and maybe even Didak who are very under priced in 2012 due to injuries/form.

Last year we had around 2000 people join in one of the biggest DT groups in the world. We are going around once again and want you to be involved.

We are looking for a sponsor to give a prize away (otherwise it might just end up being signed Calvin’s Captains notes or maybe 2007 Prospectus). So if you have a company that would like some exposure on the biggest AFL Dream Team website, then contact us (warnie@dreamteamtalk.com) and we’ll try to work something out!

Signing up to the group is easy. If you’re already registered with your Dream Team, then click this link but, if for some reason you aren’t already registered, then use this link to sign up.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE GROUP!

Time to look at the Engine Room… the Heart of DT.

This article will look at what I consider the top 12 most talked about or should be talked about players. (The selection of players itself will generate some debate, and yes I am aware that I haven’t included Barlow or Hayes but McRath has already done a ripper article on that!)

When looking at Premo Mid’s the question that always gets raised do you want Consistency or High Ceiling?

Are you happy to take 110 every week or do you want the 140’s balanced with the occasional 100. Everyone takes a different approach. So how do you separate the SUPER GUNS from the Couldabeens.

How do you decide who to start with and who are upgrade targets?

Most teams will start with either 3 or 4 of these, given that Underpriced Premos (Barlow, Hayes) will make up most teams number 4 or 5.

Also bear in mind how the Byes play out this year…you don’t want any more than 2 guns out each round if you are serious about the car!

Some basic stats to start with:

Consistency

Pendles jumps out scoring over the ton 88% of the time. Swan, Boyd, Rocky and Murph raised their bat over 75% of games that they played in. Sammy, Redden and Selwood  were all over 70%, with the rest of the guys under that.

For the times that the guns do not fire and score under 100, Ablett, Murphy and Pendles average over 90…talking to how consistent they are..the others don’t lag too far behind…Worryingly both Swallow and Priddis in 2011 regularly scored under 100. Too often for my liking.

Going Large

But let’s be serious, these guys need to average 110+ and more like 120+ (but maybe I am greedy).

So when they score a 100… How often do they turn that into 120+ and how large do they go?

Swanny,  Pendles and Ablett in particular score big and score big often. Thommo, Boyd and Selwood score over 120 half the time they hit the ton.

Ablett smashed out 130+ on 5 occasions and Swanny did 4, Pendles, Boyd, Rocky and Thommo did it 3 times….so they know how to score… 

Reliability

How reliable are these guys and will they stay on the park.

In the main all of the above had a great 2011 averaging higher than their 3 year average, Red and Rock had breakout years, Murphy, Pendles and Priddis showed us why they are emerging if not already super stars…certainly the first 2 are. Sammy and Thommo showed age is no barrier. Swan, Ablett and Boyd showed why they are champions.

Age may come into play with older legs and therefore potential increased rotations. It is safe to assume that Swanny and Pendles may have a trip to Arizona half way through the year…given Swan’s output in the latter half of last year… this can only be a good thing.

Most of these guys play over 80% game time, with only Rockliff (73%) and Selwood (65%) playing less than that. If we assume increased game time means increased score…big upside for these 2.

The Draw

What does 2012 hold?

The below table looks at average based on 2011 scores before and after their respective byes. Where players are up against GWS I have used GC as an average. In Ablett’s case I have used his yearly average as his proposed score against GWS.

This does not take into account any improvement … I think that most of these players will improve by at least 5% and that is not factored in.

A few of these guys easy draws has been well publicised, particularly Thommo and looks like a good consistent bet for the year.

Value for Money

Here is my spin on how all of the above rate and different metrics as to how I have ranked them.

Firstly…given what I have looked at.. I have removed Priddis and Swallow… their numbers simply do not stack up as well as some of the others.

Here are the metrics that I have used and how I would rank them.

Dane Swan

What is there left to say… he is DT gold.

(refer DoDT Article)

Pros – He scores consistently and consistently BIG. All of his numbers stack up. Favourable Bye

Cons – He is expensive…Not sure how many will start with him but will definitely be in every ones calculations at some stage. What will his body do?… will he be sent to Arizona again to get him through the year?

Starter or Upgrade:  Either…Certainly performs better in the back half of the year and should see his price fall across the early rounds unless he really smashes it… But is that worth missing out on the point he may bring in over that time?

Rating: 10/10

Scott Pendlebury

I made the mistake last year of not starting with him based on his stupid dreadlocks…DOH! Thankfully hair seems to be under control this year.

Pros – He is a Rolls Royce, He gets A LOT of the ball, he tackles, he is a very consistent scorer. He doesn’t just do 100’s he does 120+ (13 times last year) the most of anyone.

Cons – Not a lot, I think this guy will be the number 1 Mid this year. You could argue that he may have some more competition for the pill this year with Swanny, Daisy, Ball, Sidebum, Beams etc rotating through.. But really cannot see it affecting him.

Starter or Upgrade: Definitely should finish the year better based on the teams that he plays and traditionally finishes the year around 4 points higher than the start… but as per Swan… think you need to have one of them in your team from the get go

Rating 9.5/10

Tom Rockliff

AS we know came of age last year . He gets the pill and is a very DT friendly player. He tackles like a hungry Greco Roman searching for a chip.

Pros – Has all of the right ingredients to be a super star. In 2011 had limited time on ground due to rotations and still pumped out great numbers., with a bigger tank you have to think that will only improve.

Cons – Can he repeat it? That is the big punt. Will last year’s efforts see him get more attention this year?

Starter or Upgrade: I am gonna hold on Rocky and see what the first half of his season brings… he should finish with a wet sail… my figures tell me average 120+ for his last half of the year

Rating: 8.5/10

Gary Ablett Jr

Pretty much read comments above for Swanny. Between the 2 of them, they are the greatest DT players we have ever seen.

Pros - He plays in one of the bottom 2 teams and just finds it, he kicks goals, he tackles, he is a ball magnet. He can score BIG, Super BIG

Cons – He doesn’t get to play against Gold Coast!

Starter or Upgrade: LOCK, LOCK, LOCK…There are not gonna be  many teams that don’t have him.  Here is a hint. Select Him.

Rating: 10/10

Marc Murphy

The boy can play…that is undoubted. Read DoDT Article.

Pros – In arguably the best midfield in the comp, he is the out rider, kicks a lot, kicks goals and… wel….l is just a gun.  Super consistent, scores over the ton 18 times last year.

Cons – Has a head like a tennis ball. Gibbsy proposed move to the mids may impact his scoring…but I am banking on it not. He shares the Bye with Ablett and Sammy Mitchell…so selecting all 3 would be very tough.

Starter or Upgrade: Starter for mine, I like the Blues early draw and think he may jump out of the blocks.

Rating: 8/10

Matthew Boyd

Is he the forgotten man of this year?

Pros – He is a DT Demi god…Doesn’t quite hit the heights of Swanny or GAJ but goes bloody close. Averaged over 110 each year for the last 3 years. Averages more points when the doggies lose (lets face it, they will probably lose more than they win)

Cons- High Starting Price, New Coach (what impact will this have?)Shares round 11 bye with a lot of others

Starter or Upgrade: Upgrade target for me…want to see that he still has it (may cost me some points) my figures point to a 10 point increase in the back part of the season.

Rating: 9/10

Joel Selwood

Refer DoDT article again. Awesome player..and now Captain.

Pros – Likes to get in and get the pill and gets a lot of it. Umps love him and his rubber legs. His Time on ground was really low last year and his numbers were still bloody good, can only expect this to go up.

Cons – Effect of the captaincy? There may be better value for money. Round 11 BYE

Starter or Upgrade: Will definitely start better than he finishes, based on history and what his drawer looks like. I reckon it is between him and Murph if you are going for that super consistent MID that may elevate them to superstardom.

Rating: 8/10

Sam Mitchell

DoDT article again. Lightning Hands, Sammy Everywhere.

Pros-Super consistent, Fantastic Year last year. Plays for the DT friendly hawks.

Cons- Age? At 29 is the oldest of this group. Took a game off last year to play with his kids…cmon Sammy how does that help us?

Starter or Upgrade: If I was gonna take him it would be as a starter, aging legs may see him rested later in the year depending on how happy a team they are at Hawthorn.

Rating: 8/10

Scott Thompson

Those that didn’t have him last year regretted it.

Pros- His Draw… well publicised, plays GC, GWS and PA twice….will definitely keep the stats boys busy. Super Consistent and has pumped out some huge scores

Cons-Age is 28, like Sammy he may get rested. Handballs a lot, but gets enough of it to justify though. Round 11 BYE

Starter or Upgrade: Either, super consistent and should be very steady during the year. I have no doubt he will average 110 ish and you could definitely do worse.

Rating: 8/10

Jack Redden

Absolute breakout year.  The Jenna Jamison of the group….Loves a tackle!

Pros- He has all the makings of a superstar. Most teams will go with Rocky, so could be a good point of difference. When he scroes a 100 he almost always turns it into 110+

Cons- Like Rocky, can he back it up? Not as flashy as Rocky, Maybe better options for the $$

Starter or Upgrade: Will come home strong… I am predicting an 8 point differential and averaging around 116 for the latter part of the year.

Rating: 8/10

Just as a point of difference….one guy that I haven’t looked at is Leigh Montagna… I just wonder with his good mate Lenny back , will he capture the 2009 and 2010 form?…maybe just maybe.

So there you have it… my take on the Premos and thoughts on what the year may look like. I am still undecided on my set up but will certainly have Pendles, Ablett and Murph….

Anyway, now open the debate on who isn’t in there, who should be, who is your smokie?

So who is starting in your engine room?

Start the motors all… and let’s roll!

Cheers and Happy DTing!

After reading the comments of the previous two ‘Versus’ articles by McRath their seemed to be a lot of support and a push for the continuation of these articles. So following the basic blueprint laid out by McRath I have put together this article opposing two players that may well step into the top echelon of dream team defenders this year.

Following some reading of comments in both the ‘My Team’ post and the DoDT articles of both Greg and Dyson respectively, it appears that these two players are really fighting it out for that D4/5 position. Placed at almost the exact same price, with the same bye, both players provide obvious upside and could be in line for big years. In saying that which one will you be recruiting to fill one of those precarious defender spots in 2012? Hopefully this article will help you decide just that.

Greg Broughton

Price – $416,200
Position – Def
Bye Round – 12
Age – 25

2011 Details:
Average – 84.14
Games played – 21
High Score – 149
Low Score – 46
No. of 100+ scores – 6
No. of sub 70 scores – 8

Dyson Heppell

Price – $415,900
Position – Def
Bye Round –12
Age – 19 (20 in may)

2011 Details:
Average – 84.09
Games played –22
High Score – 108
Low Score –52
No. of 100+ scores – 5
No. of sub 70 scores –4

Scoring Potential& Consistency:

Over the course of Broughton’s 3 years in the AFL he has shown the dream team world that he has huge scoring potential, and from what was seen in 2011 a much higher ceiling than Heppell, clearly represented by Greg’s HS of 149 compared to Dyson’s 108. The downside of Broughton is however, that he can consistently score sub par scores, as shown in the first 8 and last 5 rounds of 2011 where he averaged just 64. In fact even in Broughton’s purple match mid season he knocked out 3 games of 90 or below including one, which was sub 50, just highlighting his inconsistency. Heppell showed us all in his debut year that he may not have the scoring potential of Broughton but what he lacks there he certainly makes up for in his consistency of high standard games, hitting the 90+ mark an incredible 9 times in his debut year. Sure 90 isn’t a huge score but keep in mind that Fyfe (a similar type of silky outside player with a strong grab, however in a amore attacking manner) reached the 90 mark just 3 times and averaging only 68 in his debut year before upping his average to 98 in just his second season.And with a solid pre season in the gym and on the track surely we can expect Heppell to enhance his ceiling and build on his scoring potential, right?

The graphs below show both Greg and Dyson’s scores from each round, clearly highlighting the disparity of consistency between the two.

Round 1 goes to……. Heppell, just, for his above par consistency and likelihood to increase his scoring potential and ceiling. However if Broughton added some consistency to his game then he definitely seems to have greater upside due to his higher ceiling. (Score: 0-1)

Durability:

Not really too much too say here considering both players are still very early on in there careers, entering there 2^nd and 4^th careers respectively. However it is worth noting that since his debut Broughton has missed 13 of a possible 64 games and has struggled with different injuries at times throughout his 3year career. Dyson however seemed to show great durability playing in all 23 of Essendon’s games in his first season despite rumors going around pre draft day 2010 that he was struggling with an injury.

Round 2 goes to……. Once again it’s Heppell, but with not much to go off I wouldn’t be paying too much attention to this category. (Score: 0-2)

Value:

Being two of the minimal defenders not sharing the round 13 bye both represent great value, money and structural wise, provided they average in excess of 90 that is. As it is expected both will do this it can be assured that they probably wont be too much cheaper throughout the season, however probably wont rise too much either unless they really push their avg. to in excess of 95+

Round 3 goes to…… Broughto, if he can add some consistency to his game he offers incredible value, but we will need to see how Ross Lyon uses him first.

(Score: 1-2)

Health/Fitness:

The words an pictures leaking out from Essendon are representing that Heppell is having an incredible pre season and is in absolute tip top shape and is gearing up for another big year and looking to build on his debut season. Ross Lyon appears to be giving away nothing over in the west with minimal to no news on Broughto, or any of his teammatesfor that matter. Which is probably a good thing considering Greg’s history of getting injured because if there had been an injury you would think it would be reported?

Round 4 goes to…… Once again nothing to really go off here but given the hype on Heppell’s pre season he wins out in this category. (Score: 1-3)

Team Draw:

Both teams seem to face relatively easy draws in 2012 with Essendon playing 10 games at Etihad and 7 games at the ‘G’ through the course of the season (where Heppell averages 82.33 and 92.25 respectively), meanwhile, like always, Freo will play 12 games at Patersons (where Greg has averaged 91 over the course of his 29 games there).

Now looking to the teams that they play twice, in brackets is there average against that team and from how many games:

Essendon & Heppell: Collingwood (102/2), Richmond (105/2), Port (102/1), Carlton (81/2), North (58/1) – in total 91.875/8

Freo and Broughto: Port (96/3), West Coast (92.4/5), Adelaide (88.5/4), Richmond (82/3), Melbourne (60.33/3) – in total 85.05/18

When scanning over the fixture it seems as though Essendon have a larger portion of easier games in the first 11 rounds with Freo being the opposite, leading to Broughton perhaps being an upgrade target post Rd 12 and starting with Heppell a better option

Round 5 goes to…… Heppell, with minimal travel and a better average against the team he faces twice I would assume that Heppell would be the better option for a starter if deciding by this category. (Score: 1-4)

Conclusion:

Overall I believe that both will push for an average of 90+ and slip into the top 10 defenders come years end if they stay fit. However given the unknowns of Lyon’s game plan & Broughton’s knack of slipping into a lockdown defender roll, coupled with his inconsistency, hangs huge question marks over his head going into the 2012 season, making Heppell the safer and better choice in my opinion. Let us know your thoughts and comments below, feedback appreciated. (Once again thanks to McRath because I wouldn’t of been able to write this without the structure he set in his first two of these articles)

Good luck to all for the 2012 season

Robdog

Last year, Ryan Gamble was a popular pick as the 7th forward for many teams.

After moving from Geelong, where he constantly switched between the forward and backlines, to St Kilda, Gamble was seen as a viable third option next to Riewoldt and Kosi and at $157,800, he was also a cash cow. In 24 games over 5 seasons, Gamble had averaged 59.7 points and it was assumed more game time in his favoured forward position would see him boost his output, Dreamteam and real life, considerably.

What happened? He scored 57.9 points per game and kicked just 11 goals in only 11 games. Gamble played the first three games, where a 2 kick, 2 mark, 1 handball and 1 tackle, 18 point third game performance saw him dropped.  He finished the season worth only $231,500 a return just $73,700. More importantly for Ryan Gamble, he was delisted by the Saints and will not play in the AFL this season.

St Kilda and his Dreamteam owners, who gambled on Gamble, rolled a snake eyes.

Recycled players are always a slight risk, if they were solid players on and in most cases off the field or had good injury histories, they wouldn’t have been delisted or traded in the first place.

Some players make the most of the increased game time and those owners who rolled the dice in 2011 on Bachar Houli (Ex Essendon), David Hale (Ex North), Nick Lower (Ex Port), Andrew Karkouer (Ex Wooroloo Prison) or Danny Stanley (Ex Collingwood) were rewarded with high scores and a healthy cash return.

Likewise those who bet on Nathan Djerrkura, Patrick Veszpremi, Andrejs Everitt, Ben McKinley, Richard Tambling or Cameron Bruce ended up throwing their tickets into the bin.

As we prepare for 2012, let’s study the form guide of this year’s recycled players. A note of caution, be careful who you gamble or you might find yourself like the inspiration for this article, out of the league in a years’ time.

* Denotes Rookie Listed player.

100 Rated

Who are the recycled players who will score significantly higher at their new club and make us some money.

Best Bet

Jonathon Giles – GWS
Old club – Port Adelaide
Position: Ruck
Cost: $117,800
2011 avg: N/A
2012 expected avg: 67

Why?

Besides Dean Brogan, Jon Giles is the only other viable ruck option that GWS have. Brogan will be slated to be the number 1 ruck with Giles the understudy. This is a position familiar to Giles who spent 4 years learning from Brogan/Lade on Port Adelaide’s senior list. We should expect Giles to play the majority of games and to take most of the centre bounces. Why? Brogan’s main strength was his centre bounce jumping ability. Brogan struggled last year with Achilles problems which have robbed him of his hops.

Giles has matured and grown into his frame. He was the Giants B&F winner in the NEAFL last year. Unlike other Giant players won’t be reliant on winning the ball for a majority of points. Giles should get 50% of his points from hitouts and the Giants are definitely likely to have lots of centre bounces.

Runner Up

James McDonald – GWS
Old club – Melbourne
Position: Midfield
Cost: $98,700
2011 avg: N/A
2012 expected avg: 70

Why?

An unusual case as McDonald becomes the first playing coach for at least the last twenty years. The former Melbourne Captain will be a popular pick based on the starting price. As outlined previously on DT Talk, McDonald averaged 94.8 points in 2010 highlighted by 7 tackles per game. He believed he could play on but Melbourne wanting more game time for youngsters, ironically including Tom Scully, forced him to retire. He played amateur football in Victoria last year to keep fit and got through without any injury concerns.

McDonald is unlikely to play on the ball for the Giants, with a role in defence where his leadership, experience, ball-winning and decision making will be most needed. His tackling helps to de-risk his selection as we can bank on 16/20 points without getting a kick. A 70 average should see him increase $250,000, a very healthy return.

Tony Armstrong – Sydney
Old club – Adelaide
Position: Defender
Cost: $289,700
2011 avg: 73.2
2012 expected avg: 80

Why?

I don’t know if Tony Armstrong realises this but he owes us. In a small number of games in the last two seasons Armstrong has shown glimpses of real talent as a playmaking half back, a key position for Dreamteam. In his debut season in 2010, a 123 against North in his second game saw a number of people jump on Armstrong as a trade down target, this writer included. What did he do after that? He played another 7 games averaged 55 points and was dropped for the Dreamteam finals. Last year a drink driving charge saw the Crows discipline Armstrong and it wasn’t until Neil Craig was sacked that Armstrong came into the side. A final game 26 at West Coast hurt, but if you take this performance out he averaged 85 which would have been good enough for the 10th best defender in Dreamteam if he played the entire season.

With Ty Kennelly retiring and Nick Malcevski having bionic knees, the Swans are left with Mattner, Rhys Shaw, Nick Smith and Armstrong as rebounding defenders. Armstrong has the most upside of those defenders as someone who can break lines and use the ball at an elite level.  The Week 12 bye hurts as Shaw, Broughton, Heppell, Enright and Grimes all have the same bye. Picking him will save you $100,000 on most of these and the price rise will allow you to upgrade to a premium if inconsistency or disciplinary issues come up again. If he can deliver a full season with an average above 80 then he can considered his debt to the Dreamteam community paid.

Marty Clarke – Collingwood
Old club – Collingwood
Position: Defender
Cost: $141,500
2011 avg: N/A
2012 expected avg: 72

Why?

The last two years he played in Australia he averaged 71.6 points per game over 46 games. Clarke is who we think he is. Can we expect a higher average from an older, more physically and emotionally mature Clarke yes. But if even if scores he 2008/9 average, will net owners $220,000 or a solid top 30 defender in terms of scoring.  If he doesn’t play then all of this is a moot point. Clarke will need to beat out Ben Johnson/Alan Toovey for a spot in the starting line-up, which doesn’t seem likely. However, if you consider that Simon Buckley played 13 games last year and then you look at the overall squad depth – Clarke will play, how many games?, how many consecutively? and will he start in Round 1? will determine if Clarke worth the gamble.

Mitch Morton – Sydney
Old club – Richmond
Position: Forward
Cost: $263,800
2011 avg: 53.3
2012 expected avg: 75

Why?

Now at his third club, the former Eagle and Tiger is given a final chance at the Swans. Not many players get so many chances, especially those that average 53 points in only 9 games for the Tigers in 2011. So why are Sydney willing to give Morton another shot? There aren’t a lot of mid sized forwards that have kicked over 40 goals in a season. One of three Morton brothers to have played in the league, Morton has elite kicking and marking skills for his size. Frozen out of the 2005/6 golden era at West Coast, Morton flourished in his first two years kicking 76 goals. He then fell out favour with Damien Hardwick for his work without the ball and a general lack of fitness.

In preparation for his last chance in 2012 Morton went to Thailand to do an 5 week intense kickboxing pre-preseason training session. A rededicated Morton, playing for a team that knows how to get the best out of recycled players, could be unique mid priced pick. A return to his 2009 form, with 35+ goals will see Morton average 75, a rise of about $112,000. Only question is whether Morton is another recycling success story for the Swans or is he another Andrejs Everitt?

Darren Pfeiffer* – Port Adelaide
Old club – Carlton
Position: Midfield/Forward
Cost: $117,800
2011 avg: N/A
2012 expected avg: 70

Why?

Now on a third and final chance at the AFL level it seems the Pfeiffer has grasped what is required of an AFL player. The South Australian, was originally picked 17th overall by the Adelaide Crows in 2005. He struggled to break into a strong Crows side ahead of more experienced players. Despite being a highly touted home town player youthful issues such as breaking curfew, drinking, bar fights and a lack of dedication saw Pfeiffer delisted after only two season, failing to play a game. Carlton picked him up but he struggled playing only 7 games in two years.

Solid form for Southport in Queensland and Norwood in SA over the last two years, has seen Pfeiffer earn a return to the AFL. He is currently on the rookie list and will need to beat out Jarrad Irons and Tom Jonas for the vacant spot on the Power senior list. At 24, Pfeiffer is a tough bodied midfielder who can play a variety of roles including half back and half forward. Good in close, he will be needed for hard ball gets around stoppages, an area that Port has struggled with since Shaun Burgoyne left. For Port he provides depth and relative experience in a young squad. Even if he is nothing but a cautionary tale for some of Port younger players he will have value.

For Dreamteam, Pfeiffer is a Dual Position player, who will be handy as a midfielder bench player. A good NAB Cup will see Pfeiffer in the side from Round 1. An average in the Broadbent /Thomas range of around 70 will see him increase $180,000.

Tom Scully– GWS
Old club – Melbourne
Position: Midfield
Cost: $379,400
2011 avg: 76.7
2012 expected avg: 90

Why?

Form is temporary, class in permanent. Just two years after Melbourne made Scully the Number 1 draft pick, the weight of a new franchise is on his shoulders. Scully and his 80 year old knee will be under a microscope from day 1, but at least Tom will have his Dad there to support him.

Scully had an injury interrupted pre-season, which limited his game time and impact for the Demons in 2011. Reports about Scully knees note that he will always need to managed which is a concern from a Dreamteam perspective. At the same time, Scully is claiming to be fully healthy for the first time in two years, which is good because he will be needed to play more than 79% of games. If Scully stays on the field for 4-5% longer, is fully fit, meaning he rotates across half back and not the bench, an average above 90 should be expected. He is the Giants number 1 player but he is no Gary Ablett. The Giants are all in with him, will you?

Tommy Walsh – Sydney
Old club – St Kilda
Position: Forward
Cost: $104,200
2011 avg: N/A
2012 expected avg: 60

Why?

If you were one of the three people in Australia that watched the International Rules Series last year, then you would know all about Tommy Walsh. Walsh dominated the Aussies with physical play at Centre Half Forward. Most impressive was his disposal skills, Walsh linked up with Ty Kennelly to create numerous scoring opportunities.  St Kilda had been grooming Walsh on their rookie list with the goal to promote him to the main list in 2012 as a potential key position player. Aged 24, Walsh at 195cm and 97kg demonstrated in the International Rules and in the VFL he is physically ready to play in the AFL. A 6 goal performance against Collingwood’s VFL side late last year highlights this.

Lured to the harbour city in part by former teammate Ty Kennelly, whose number 17 he will wear, Walsh will be expected to fill the role of the retired Daniel Bradshaw at Full Forward.  Swans coach Longmire has stated that Walsh and Sam Reid will be the main forward targets in 2012. For Dreamteam owners, the concern is what impact Walsh will have on the ground. Setanta O’Hailpin is fair comparison, he averaged 74 points in 2011 in only 9 games for a high scoring Carlton. An average just short of Setanta’s is a reasonable expectation, which should net Walsh owners $200,000.

Callan Ward – GWS
Old club – Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield
Cost: $404,300
2011 avg: 81.7
2012 expected avg: 90

Why?

Put simply someone will have to score points for GWS. Last year Gold Coast had 45% of total possessions in the games they played. If GWS have similar possession rate in 2012, there are around 1400 Dream team points up for grabs. Scully and Ward are the main signings and will spend the most time on the field. Ward spent 85% of time on the ground for the Bulldogs in 2011, so his score isn’t going to go up from the increased time. What will see his scores go higher is the increased role. Ward was secondary to Boyd, Cross, Griffen and Cooney last year, this year Scully and Ward will be the focus of their team attacks and opposition tags. Rischitelli is a close comparison to Ward, he average 96 but struggled late on as the kms caught up with him. Watch out for Ward to do the same at slightly lower points per game.

Beau Wilkes – St Kilda
Old club – West Coast
Position: Defender
Cost: $98,700
2011 avg: N/A
2012 expected avg: 60

Why?

Former West Coast Eagles squad member that earned a return to the AFL based on a strong season for Claremont in the WAFL. Originally drafted as a key defender, Wilkes played full forward last season in the WAFL. He was best on ground in the WAFL Grand Final were his 5 goals kicked Claremont to the premiership.

Thinking his AFL career was over, he started a career as a builder. Beau the builder is a renovation project for Dreamteam, he will provide a solid foundation to limited rookie priced defence options. Picked up by St Kilda to bolster its key position stocks, Wilkes will either assist in replacing Zac Dawson in defence or play out of the square up front. If he plays down back, all bets are off. If Wilkes settles in down forward, an average around 60 (What Ryan Gamble, the player he could replace got last year) can be expected which will net $200,000 for Wilkes owners.

Worth an each way punt?

Two clubs, one second chance. These guys are a 50/50 chance of paying off.

Mitch Clark – Melbourne
Old club – Brisbane
Position: Forward
Cost: $356,100
2011 avg: 72
2012 expected avg: 80

Why?

Melbourne’s recruitment of Clark has been called a significant gamble. Clark had wanted to come home to WA and Fremantle thought he was committed to the club before Melbourne offered him most of the money allocated to Tom Scully. Suddenly Clark with a $2.5 million contract in his pocket found that he wasn’t so homesick after all.

Clark has had a difficult few years at the Lions. He was the 9^th overall pick in the 2005 Draft despite getting meningococcal disease a week before the Draft. Over 6 seasons at the Lions, Clark played only 62% of available games and was nursed through many games that he did play. The one full season Clark had fully fit, in 2009, he was named to the All Australian squad as a mobile ruckman. He averaged a career high 94.4 in Dreamteam. The emergence of Matthew Leuenberger and continued injury to Jonathan Brown, saw Clark move to full forward in 2011.

The move to full forward saw his disposals drop a little but hit outs and tackles plummet, 22 hit outs per game to 5 in 2011. Clark was very inconsistent with only 7 games above 70 in 2011 but two of those were big 100’s. A concern for Dreamteam owners is that Clark’s 72 points came from a lot of game time. He was on the field for 86% of Lions games last year. Melbourne has said the Clark will play down forward in 2012. Clark’s big scores come not from bags of goals but from above average marking. Look for the NAB Cup to monitor Clark role, is he a FF or CHF and how involved in around the ground ruck contests does Clark get, before rolling the dice.

Chad Cornes – GWS
Old club – Port Adelaide
Position: Forward
Cost: $330,300
2011 avg: 66.78
2012 expected avg: 80

Why?

I have to declare I am a little biased when it comes to Chad Cornes. As a Port fan and Dreamteam player, Chad and his brother Kane were the first picked in my team for a few years. Now seeing I am not driving a Toyota, maybe I should have focused on other players but I don’t regret the picks. In 2007 he averaged 101.2 but what can we expect in 2012? It is unlikely that Chad will score near his 2007 average but an average higher than his 2011 average, seems reasonable. The main victim of Port’s slide down the ladder was Cornes who was forced out to make space for young key position prospects.

He was used as a defensive forward in the games he did play in 2011 for Port. If he plays down forward to protect Jeremy Cameron, Jonathon Patton and Izzy Folau, then a similar or lower average can be expected and owners should stay away. Why is Chad an interesting bet? A back line role where he is playmaker will see his score sky rocket. Can you picture Chad as a modern day Dean Wallis intimidating opposition forwards and racking up points through marks, tackles and short kicks. Free kicks against, 1 or 2 a game, hurt but aren’t a deal breaker. A mid-season switch to defence after his starting price drops from the forward role would be ideal.

Brad Ebert – Port Adelaide
Old club – West Coast
Position: Midfielder
Cost: $308,100
2011 avg: 62.29
2012 expected avg: 80

Why?

New team but not really, the Ebert name is synonymous with Port Adelaide. Uncle Russell won 4 Magarey Medals for the Port Magpies where his Dad also played, while cousin Brett has played 150 games for the Power. A former first round selection in 2007 for West Coast, Ebert is back home after missing out on the Eagles finals side. A young experienced midfielder, 76 games in 4 seasons, Ebert was forced to a new role across half forward last year due to the development of players like Shuey, Rosa and Gaff. This saw his average drop nearly 20 points per game. He spent only 73% a majority of which was across half forward which saw him score only 0.68 points per min.

What to expect at Port? Ebert has struggled with disposal and decision making at times. A review of the squad, shows the he is likely to rotate on the ball from the half forward line like Robbie Gray but he will spend more time through the middle. Port needs his endurance, pressure and eye for goal. It will be interesting to see what impact playing for Port, the club he always wanted to play for, will have. Given his relative experience and the family name, a return to his 2010 average of 82 will see $100 grand return to his owners. He will need to average closer to 90 than 82 though to be a viable midfield pick. But if pre-season fitness reports are to believed that could be achieved.

Jack Gunston – Hawthorn
Old club – Adelaide
Position: Forward
Cost: $303,400
2011 avg: 61.33
2012 expected avg: 70

Why?

Another reason why two year rookie contracts have failed AFL clubs, Gunston played 14 games in two years for Adelaide before orchestrating a return home to Victoria. After playing only two games in 2010, Gunston had a breakout season in 2011, despite playing only 12 games, winning Adelaide’s Best Young Player Award. The Award was taken off Gunston after the trade but the talent that won the Award remains. His Round 23 performance against Richmond, 5 goals and 105 Dreamteam points, highlights the potential that saw Hawthorn trade for him.

Hawthorn have said they will use Gunston in the forward half in 2012 but they don’t consider him a focal point of the attack yet. At 6’3 he is the right height but his slender frame will see him used as supporting forward. It is also possible that Gunston will play down back if the Hawks are struck with injuries again in 2012. Buddy and Roughead are key focus points in the Hawks forward line. Roughead was used as the back up Ruckman in 2011 before injury struck. He is likely to return a similar role in 2012, meaning Gunston will need to beat out David Hale for a spot in the Hawks starting 18. Watch the NAB Cup and Roughead’s rehab before selecting.

Jordan Lisle – Brisbane
Old club – Hawthorn
Position: Forward
Cost: $219,200
2011 avg: 55.4
2012 expected avg: 60

Why?

Lisle struggled to break into Hawthorn side with Buddy, Roughead and David Hale limiting him to only 5 games over three seasons. In those 5 games he didn’t distinguish himself averaging on 55 points despite playing for the high scoring Hawks and playing against Gold Coast twice. Left out of the Hawks final squads and squeezed out by the recruitment of Jack Gunston, Lisle finds himself at the Lions.

The Lions see Lisle as a foil for a fit again Jonathon Brown, replacing the departed Mitch Clark. Preseason reports note that Lisle has settled in well and is the front runner for the full forward spot. Lisle will need to beat out Ryan Lester, Aaron Cornelius, Bryce Retzlaff and Patrick Karnezis for the spot. Lisle can also play down back which may happen with Staker out for the year and Matt Maguire injury prone. Unlikely to break out, seems after three years Lisle is who we think he is.

John McCarthy – Port Adelaide
Old club – Collingwood
Position: Midfielder
Cost: $251,000
2011 avg: 50.75
2012 expected avg: 65

Why?

Prime example of the “Gamble Factor”. McCarthy was a second round pick for Collingwood but played only 18 games across 4 seasons. He played 8 games last year struggling to get game time for an elite Collingwood side. In the games he played he spend 1/3 time on the bench and averaged only 50.75 points per game or 0.62 points per min when in the game.

McCarthy was picked up by Port in the pre-season draft with a promise from coach Matty Primus that he would play a significant role for the club in 2012. To add McCarthy to your team as a cash cow, he will need to average about 85 which will see him earn you $175,000. Now will an expanded role for Port see his average jump that much? Maybe. Can we expect 60-65 points per game mainly due to more time on the ground, yes. Hardly a reason to pick him especially at the starting price.

Save your money

Don’t waste your precious cash on these guys. They won’t score points either because of the way/position that they play or more likely because they won’t play at all.

Ageing Veteran

Luke Power – GWS
Old club – Brisbane
Position: Midfielder/Forward
Cost: $384,300
2011 avg: 77.7

Why?

282 game veteran, Luke Power, gets a chance to reach 300 games as another on field mentor for a young GWS side. Power started to slow down last year and was used across half forward with rotations on the ball. Expect him to play a similar role in 2012 with the Giants but with less of the ball. The first time in a decade Power is out of Dreamteam consideration.

Spoil First Defenders

Matthew Warnock – Gold Coast, formerly Melbourne.

Setanta O’Hailpin – GWS, formerly Carlton.

Mark Austin* – Western Bulldogs, formerly Carlton.

Phil Davis – GWS, formerly Adelaide.

Zac Dawson – Fremantle, formerly St Kilda.

Sam Reid – GWS, former Western Bulldogs.

All these guys will average 55 or under. You’re not going to win your leagues or make any money with these guys in your team. Very handy in real life but in terms of Dreamteam, these guys will spoil your season.

Rucks

Dean Brogan – GWS, formerly Port Adelaide.

Ben Hudson – Brisbane, formerly Western Bulldogs.

Brent Renouf – Port Adelaide, formerly Hawthorn.

Ivan Maric – Richmond, formerly Adelaide.

Broc McCauley* – Hawthorn, formerly Brisbane.

Adam Pattinson* – Hawthorn, formerly Richmond.

James Sellar – Melbourne, formerly Adelaide.

All these guys are tap first ruckman that will have limited playing time.

• Hudson and Brogan are ageing back up ruckmen.
• Renouf and Maric are Mark Blake type ruckman, just taps no kicks.
• Sellar will be behind Jamar and probably Jake Spencer at Melbourne.
• Broc and Pattinson are rookie listed and will need to be promoted.

If you had to pick one, Broc from a scoring point of view and Pattinson from a cash cow play are your best bets.

Rookie Listed

Brad Dick* – West Coast, formerly Collingwood.

Andrew McQualter* – Gold Coast, Formerly St Kilda.

Addam Maric* – Richmond, formerly Melbourne.

All these guys will need to be promoted to their main lists before you can pick them. All will have competition to be promoted. Dick and Maric are small forwards that have averaged around 60 points. Maric costs over $300,000 but Dick is available for only $122,000. You need to ask yourself are going to risk your season on someone with his injury history. McQualter is a veteran defensive half forward who is expensive at $213,700 and a low scorer avg of 43 points in 2011. Other rookies provide better options.

Squad Depth

Lewis Johnston – Adelaide, formerly Sydney.

Tom Lynch – Adelaide, formerly St Kilda.

Josh Hill – West Coast, formerly Western Bulldogs.

Nick Heyne – Carlton, formerly St Kilda.

These guys have been recruited to provide squad depth. Johnston and Lynch will need to beat out Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett to earn a spot. Hill may beat out Mark Nicoski for a half forward flank. Heyne provides bench depth for the Blues. Expect averages under 55 for all these guys as well as inconsistent game time.

The following article is a little long-winded, but it has a lot of interesting information. It’s a bit hard to visualize and I’ve only really touched the surface here, so I’ve included the Excel file (here: fixture study) that I used to rank the teams (as you see below). I recommend downloading it and checking it out – Please note that I’ve made it so that you can edit the values given to each team how you see fit, and it will automatically edit the dependent values for you.

Over the course of the pre-season I have seen comments like “Team X has a great fixture, hence I’m going to pick up Player Y”, with no real evidence. What determines a great fixture? Is it the number of games against weak opponents, or is it avoiding strong opponents, or maybe less travel? For me, it’s primarily a combination of the former two; a strong draw over the whole sample size, however small or large that may be.

So, I decided to find out who really does have the best 2012 fixture. To do this, I assigned each opponent a value based on which block of 3 they finished on the ladder in 2011, as shown below. It’s important to note that the values are just arbitrary and are intended to be thought of relatively.

I then went through each team’s fixtures, assigned the values to each team, and then summed them to give a Seasonal Value. I simply ranked the teams from lowest to highest, which reflects the ease of a club’s fixture.

Overall Fixture

As we know, the tougher teams (such as Collingwood, Geelong, etc) are usually given tougher draws, while the weaker teams (think West Coast last year) tend to double-up on similarly weak sides.

The above information is useful for picking a between two similar players that you just can’t split. For instance, if I was 50-50 between Scott Thompson and Jack Redden (almost identically priced, both Mid eligible and both played 22 games last year) then I would probably side with Thompson given Adelaide’s favourable draw (The Crows actually have an incredible draw. They are one of only two teams to play both expansion clubs twice, and only play one team twice that made the finals in 2011. I’d be asking some serious questions if I were Port, who only play each expansion club once, and both away from home, even though they finished lower on the ladder).

Conversely, will a tough draw turn you off a player? Collingwood, as expected, boasts the toughest draw coming into the season. Will that affect whether you choose Swan, Pendlebury and Co.? That’s one for you to decide, although I would suggest Collingwood are used to it – I would be much more worried about players from West Coast, Bulldogs and Sydney.

Pre-Bye Fixture

What about when we look for upgrades/downgrades when the dreaded Multi-Bye Rounds (MBRs) are upon us? Given that this is when most of us will be executing a heap of trades, I thought it would be useful to examine each club’s Pre-Bye and Post-Bye splits. The value in the below table is an average value, to counter the fact that each club plays a different amount of games prior to their bye.

As we can see, St. Kilda, Essendon, Sydney and Collingwood have great pre-bye fixtures, while Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Melbourne have a tougher start to the year.

This data is useful for examining both Gun and Rookie selections. Picking Cash-Cows from a team with a favourable pre-bye draw means that they will fatten up considerably more by the time you want to cash them in – the MBRs. Similarly, if you are stuck picking between two guns, for instance Sylvia & N. Riewoldt, you would take the player with the best pre-bye draw, and leave the other for consideration as an upgrade target. Given Melbourne’s horrible early fixture, and St. Kilda’s dream start to the year, I know who I’d be going with first up.

Post-Bye Fixture

What about after the bye? Which players should we be looking at for upgrades, and which team’s rookies might make great downgrade options around the MBRs?

Here, we see that in complete contrast to the first half of the season, Melbourne has a great finish. Same goes for Fremantle and Richmond, who also had tough starts to the year. Conversely, Sydney, Essendon and Collingwood have a tough run home after enjoying early starts.

Upgrades & Downgrades

This got me thinking… which teams’ players are the best to upgrade to around the MBRs? To calculate this, I assigned each team a value of 18 – 1 based on their pre-bye draws, and added this to their post-bye rating, numbered 1 – 18. The way to read this is, the lower the value, to better the team is for upgrading to it’s players. On the flip side, the higher the value, the better it is for upgrading from players from this team.

From this, we can see that Melbourne, Richmond, Fremantle and Adelaide are the teams whose players we want to be upgrading to. The idea here is that their Premos, having endured a tough early draw, should be undervalued – especially as they are expected to perform better against weaker opposition after their bye. This concept is given even more weight if you combine it in a trade with one of your starting Cash-Cows from Essendon, Collingwood, St. Kilda and Sydney. These Rookies belong to teams who enjoy a cruisy start to the year, so we would expect them to have the opportunity to fatten up more than other Rookies and be hitting their peak price around the MBRs, just before they hit the tough part of their fixtures.

Still following? How about we look at a real situation with real players.

An ideal scenario here would be to identify 2 Rookies from a team with a good pre-bye draw and a Premo-Rookie combo with good post-bye draws, for upgrading purposes. For example, you start the season with Ahmed Saad (St. Kilda) in your forward line and Elliot Kavanagh (Essendon) in the midfield. Then, in between Round 11 and 12, you trade them both out at (hopefully close to) their peak price (remember, Essendon has the R12Bye and St. Kilda has the R13Bye) and trade in two players who just completed their R11Bye and have good runs home. This might be, say, Sam Kerridge, a M/F Rookie from Adelaide, and a Gun from Brisbane like Tom Rockliff. Not only have you taken into account the byes, but you’ve also maximised your return by considering the fixturing and executed a bona-fide double trade.

DreamTeam Finals

Lastly, what about the DT Finals? Which teams have that ‘Dream Run’ as we coaches rely on their members to get us over the line?

As you can see, be wary of Sydney, West Coast and Essendon Guns for late-season upgrades, while looking closely at Adelaide Premiums like Thompson or Van Berlo for a DT Finals boost.

As you can see, using this method, Hawthorn has one of the more favourable DT Finals draws. But closer inspection shows it could be fool’s gold. They play Port, Gold Coast, Sydney and West Coast over their last 4 matches. But remember Round 24 last year? Coaches everywhere were jumping over one another to get their hands on Suckling or Mitchell or Franklin, because of that dream Finals run home which culminated in the Gold Coast match. Hawthorn rested 8 guns, back-firing on all of us who were dazzled by that season closer.

This year, watch for the Hawthorn guns to be rested in Round 20 or 21 against either Port or the Suns. The same idea applies to the other Top 5 or 6 teams gearing up for the actual Finals series – teams like Carlton, Collingwood, and Geelong who are expected to be around there at the pointy end of the season.

So, what do you think? Will soft or hard draws affect which players you pick? Will quirks in the fixturing dictate when you trade a player in, or if at all? Will you stay away from Hawks due to their unpredictability come DT Finals time? Let us know in the comments!

Follow me on Twitter: @tbetta9

This means we can now officially start making our teams ready for the new season. This here is the post where you can comment on your own team, help others out, ask random questions, etc. Make sure it isn’t completely a ‘me, me, me’ place to be… offer up advice for those who are playing the game and visiting our site. Remember, you may not agree with someone, but you don’t have to make it personal!

Make everyone’s life easy by posting your team in an easy to read format! There is nothing worse than seeing it all over the place. Here is a suggested way to post it up.

TEAM NAME: Warne Dawgs
DEF: A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player (A. Player, A. Player)
MID: A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player (A. Player, A. Player)
RUC: A. Player, A. Player (A. Player, A. Player)
FWD: A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player, A. Player (A. Player, A. Player)
CASH LEFT: $9,999

Remember, there is a link to this post on the sidebar so you don’t lose it! Happy Dream Teaming!

AFL Dream Team is now open for 2012 and with it comes our second episode of the preseason. Roy, Calvin and Warnie look at the game and the new features including the Assistant Coach (which we write for, please support our work by subscribing… only $20 for the season!). Warnie chats to Nathan Buckley about all things Collingwood and DT, Roy and Calvin grill Andrew Swallow from North Melbourne and we hear from Jonathon Patton, Chad Wingard, Lin Jong and Elliott Kavanagh at the Draftee Induction.

Do you want to WIN AN AFL PROSPECTUS? Well, get us an intro from someone famous and email it to warnie@dreamteamtalk.com and if you are aired, you will receive a signed (or defaced) copy from us! Wowee! Thanks to the guys from How Ridiculous for their video for this episode!

Stay tuned to our website at www.dreamteamtalk.com for heaps of articles this preseason and throughout the 2012 AFL Dream Team season. Also, stay connected with us through all of the social media outlets below!

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