Time to look at the Engine Room… the Heart of DT.

This article will look at what I consider the top 12 most talked about or should be talked about players. (The selection of players itself will generate some debate, and yes I am aware that I haven’t included Barlow or Hayes but McRath has already done a ripper article on that!)

When looking at Premo Mid’s the question that always gets raised do you want Consistency or High Ceiling?

Are you happy to take 110 every week or do you want the 140’s balanced with the occasional 100. Everyone takes a different approach. So how do you separate the SUPER GUNS from the Couldabeens.

How do you decide who to start with and who are upgrade targets?

Most teams will start with either 3 or 4 of these, given that Underpriced Premos (Barlow, Hayes) will make up most teams number 4 or 5.

Also bear in mind how the Byes play out this year…you don’t want any more than 2 guns out each round if you are serious about the car!

Some basic stats to start with:

Consistency

Pendles jumps out scoring over the ton 88% of the time. Swan, Boyd, Rocky and Murph raised their bat over 75% of games that they played in. Sammy, Redden and Selwood  were all over 70%, with the rest of the guys under that.

For the times that the guns do not fire and score under 100, Ablett, Murphy and Pendles average over 90…talking to how consistent they are..the others don’t lag too far behind…Worryingly both Swallow and Priddis in 2011 regularly scored under 100. Too often for my liking.

Going Large

But let’s be serious, these guys need to average 110+ and more like 120+ (but maybe I am greedy).

So when they score a 100… How often do they turn that into 120+ and how large do they go?

Swanny,  Pendles and Ablett in particular score big and score big often. Thommo, Boyd and Selwood score over 120 half the time they hit the ton.

Ablett smashed out 130+ on 5 occasions and Swanny did 4, Pendles, Boyd, Rocky and Thommo did it 3 times….so they know how to score… 

Reliability

How reliable are these guys and will they stay on the park.

In the main all of the above had a great 2011 averaging higher than their 3 year average, Red and Rock had breakout years, Murphy, Pendles and Priddis showed us why they are emerging if not already super stars…certainly the first 2 are. Sammy and Thommo showed age is no barrier. Swan, Ablett and Boyd showed why they are champions.

Age may come into play with older legs and therefore potential increased rotations. It is safe to assume that Swanny and Pendles may have a trip to Arizona half way through the year…given Swan’s output in the latter half of last year… this can only be a good thing.

Most of these guys play over 80% game time, with only Rockliff (73%) and Selwood (65%) playing less than that. If we assume increased game time means increased score…big upside for these 2.

The Draw

What does 2012 hold?

The below table looks at average based on 2011 scores before and after their respective byes. Where players are up against GWS I have used GC as an average. In Ablett’s case I have used his yearly average as his proposed score against GWS.

This does not take into account any improvement … I think that most of these players will improve by at least 5% and that is not factored in.

A few of these guys easy draws has been well publicised, particularly Thommo and looks like a good consistent bet for the year.

Value for Money

Here is my spin on how all of the above rate and different metrics as to how I have ranked them.

Firstly…given what I have looked at.. I have removed Priddis and Swallow… their numbers simply do not stack up as well as some of the others.

Here are the metrics that I have used and how I would rank them.

Dane Swan

What is there left to say… he is DT gold.

(refer DoDT Article)

Pros – He scores consistently and consistently BIG. All of his numbers stack up. Favourable Bye

Cons – He is expensive…Not sure how many will start with him but will definitely be in every ones calculations at some stage. What will his body do?… will he be sent to Arizona again to get him through the year?

Starter or Upgrade:  Either…Certainly performs better in the back half of the year and should see his price fall across the early rounds unless he really smashes it… But is that worth missing out on the point he may bring in over that time?

Rating: 10/10

Scott Pendlebury

I made the mistake last year of not starting with him based on his stupid dreadlocks…DOH! Thankfully hair seems to be under control this year.

Pros – He is a Rolls Royce, He gets A LOT of the ball, he tackles, he is a very consistent scorer. He doesn’t just do 100’s he does 120+ (13 times last year) the most of anyone.

Cons – Not a lot, I think this guy will be the number 1 Mid this year. You could argue that he may have some more competition for the pill this year with Swanny, Daisy, Ball, Sidebum, Beams etc rotating through.. But really cannot see it affecting him.

Starter or Upgrade: Definitely should finish the year better based on the teams that he plays and traditionally finishes the year around 4 points higher than the start… but as per Swan… think you need to have one of them in your team from the get go

Rating 9.5/10

Tom Rockliff

AS we know came of age last year . He gets the pill and is a very DT friendly player. He tackles like a hungry Greco Roman searching for a chip.

Pros – Has all of the right ingredients to be a super star. In 2011 had limited time on ground due to rotations and still pumped out great numbers., with a bigger tank you have to think that will only improve.

Cons – Can he repeat it? That is the big punt. Will last year’s efforts see him get more attention this year?

Starter or Upgrade: I am gonna hold on Rocky and see what the first half of his season brings… he should finish with a wet sail… my figures tell me average 120+ for his last half of the year

Rating: 8.5/10

Gary Ablett Jr

Pretty much read comments above for Swanny. Between the 2 of them, they are the greatest DT players we have ever seen.

Pros - He plays in one of the bottom 2 teams and just finds it, he kicks goals, he tackles, he is a ball magnet. He can score BIG, Super BIG

Cons – He doesn’t get to play against Gold Coast!

Starter or Upgrade: LOCK, LOCK, LOCK…There are not gonna be  many teams that don’t have him.  Here is a hint. Select Him.

Rating: 10/10

Marc Murphy

The boy can play…that is undoubted. Read DoDT Article.

Pros – In arguably the best midfield in the comp, he is the out rider, kicks a lot, kicks goals and… wel….l is just a gun.  Super consistent, scores over the ton 18 times last year.

Cons – Has a head like a tennis ball. Gibbsy proposed move to the mids may impact his scoring…but I am banking on it not. He shares the Bye with Ablett and Sammy Mitchell…so selecting all 3 would be very tough.

Starter or Upgrade: Starter for mine, I like the Blues early draw and think he may jump out of the blocks.

Rating: 8/10

Matthew Boyd

Is he the forgotten man of this year?

Pros – He is a DT Demi god…Doesn’t quite hit the heights of Swanny or GAJ but goes bloody close. Averaged over 110 each year for the last 3 years. Averages more points when the doggies lose (lets face it, they will probably lose more than they win)

Cons- High Starting Price, New Coach (what impact will this have?)Shares round 11 bye with a lot of others

Starter or Upgrade: Upgrade target for me…want to see that he still has it (may cost me some points) my figures point to a 10 point increase in the back part of the season.

Rating: 9/10

Joel Selwood

Refer DoDT article again. Awesome player..and now Captain.

Pros – Likes to get in and get the pill and gets a lot of it. Umps love him and his rubber legs. His Time on ground was really low last year and his numbers were still bloody good, can only expect this to go up.

Cons – Effect of the captaincy? There may be better value for money. Round 11 BYE

Starter or Upgrade: Will definitely start better than he finishes, based on history and what his drawer looks like. I reckon it is between him and Murph if you are going for that super consistent MID that may elevate them to superstardom.

Rating: 8/10

Sam Mitchell

DoDT article again. Lightning Hands, Sammy Everywhere.

Pros-Super consistent, Fantastic Year last year. Plays for the DT friendly hawks.

Cons- Age? At 29 is the oldest of this group. Took a game off last year to play with his kids…cmon Sammy how does that help us?

Starter or Upgrade: If I was gonna take him it would be as a starter, aging legs may see him rested later in the year depending on how happy a team they are at Hawthorn.

Rating: 8/10

Scott Thompson

Those that didn’t have him last year regretted it.

Pros- His Draw… well publicised, plays GC, GWS and PA twice….will definitely keep the stats boys busy. Super Consistent and has pumped out some huge scores

Cons-Age is 28, like Sammy he may get rested. Handballs a lot, but gets enough of it to justify though. Round 11 BYE

Starter or Upgrade: Either, super consistent and should be very steady during the year. I have no doubt he will average 110 ish and you could definitely do worse.

Rating: 8/10

Jack Redden

Absolute breakout year.  The Jenna Jamison of the group….Loves a tackle!

Pros- He has all the makings of a superstar. Most teams will go with Rocky, so could be a good point of difference. When he scroes a 100 he almost always turns it into 110+

Cons- Like Rocky, can he back it up? Not as flashy as Rocky, Maybe better options for the $$

Starter or Upgrade: Will come home strong… I am predicting an 8 point differential and averaging around 116 for the latter part of the year.

Rating: 8/10

Just as a point of difference….one guy that I haven’t looked at is Leigh Montagna… I just wonder with his good mate Lenny back , will he capture the 2009 and 2010 form?…maybe just maybe.

So there you have it… my take on the Premos and thoughts on what the year may look like. I am still undecided on my set up but will certainly have Pendles, Ablett and Murph….

Anyway, now open the debate on who isn’t in there, who should be, who is your smokie?

So who is starting in your engine room?

Start the motors all… and let’s roll!

Cheers and Happy DTing!

After reading the comments of the previous two ‘Versus’ articles by McRath their seemed to be a lot of support and a push for the continuation of these articles. So following the basic blueprint laid out by McRath I have put together this article opposing two players that may well step into the top echelon of dream team defenders this year.

Following some reading of comments in both the ‘My Team’ post and the DoDT articles of both Greg and Dyson respectively, it appears that these two players are really fighting it out for that D4/5 position. Placed at almost the exact same price, with the same bye, both players provide obvious upside and could be in line for big years. In saying that which one will you be recruiting to fill one of those precarious defender spots in 2012? Hopefully this article will help you decide just that.

Greg Broughton

Price – $416,200
Position – Def
Bye Round – 12
Age – 25

2011 Details:
Average – 84.14
Games played – 21
High Score – 149
Low Score – 46
No. of 100+ scores – 6
No. of sub 70 scores – 8

Dyson Heppell

Price – $415,900
Position – Def
Bye Round –12
Age – 19 (20 in may)

2011 Details:
Average – 84.09
Games played –22
High Score – 108
Low Score –52
No. of 100+ scores – 5
No. of sub 70 scores –4

Scoring Potential& Consistency:

Over the course of Broughton’s 3 years in the AFL he has shown the dream team world that he has huge scoring potential, and from what was seen in 2011 a much higher ceiling than Heppell, clearly represented by Greg’s HS of 149 compared to Dyson’s 108. The downside of Broughton is however, that he can consistently score sub par scores, as shown in the first 8 and last 5 rounds of 2011 where he averaged just 64. In fact even in Broughton’s purple match mid season he knocked out 3 games of 90 or below including one, which was sub 50, just highlighting his inconsistency. Heppell showed us all in his debut year that he may not have the scoring potential of Broughton but what he lacks there he certainly makes up for in his consistency of high standard games, hitting the 90+ mark an incredible 9 times in his debut year. Sure 90 isn’t a huge score but keep in mind that Fyfe (a similar type of silky outside player with a strong grab, however in a amore attacking manner) reached the 90 mark just 3 times and averaging only 68 in his debut year before upping his average to 98 in just his second season.And with a solid pre season in the gym and on the track surely we can expect Heppell to enhance his ceiling and build on his scoring potential, right?

The graphs below show both Greg and Dyson’s scores from each round, clearly highlighting the disparity of consistency between the two.

Round 1 goes to……. Heppell, just, for his above par consistency and likelihood to increase his scoring potential and ceiling. However if Broughton added some consistency to his game then he definitely seems to have greater upside due to his higher ceiling. (Score: 0-1)

Durability:

Not really too much too say here considering both players are still very early on in there careers, entering there 2^nd and 4^th careers respectively. However it is worth noting that since his debut Broughton has missed 13 of a possible 64 games and has struggled with different injuries at times throughout his 3year career. Dyson however seemed to show great durability playing in all 23 of Essendon’s games in his first season despite rumors going around pre draft day 2010 that he was struggling with an injury.

Round 2 goes to……. Once again it’s Heppell, but with not much to go off I wouldn’t be paying too much attention to this category. (Score: 0-2)

Value:

Being two of the minimal defenders not sharing the round 13 bye both represent great value, money and structural wise, provided they average in excess of 90 that is. As it is expected both will do this it can be assured that they probably wont be too much cheaper throughout the season, however probably wont rise too much either unless they really push their avg. to in excess of 95+

Round 3 goes to…… Broughto, if he can add some consistency to his game he offers incredible value, but we will need to see how Ross Lyon uses him first.

(Score: 1-2)

Health/Fitness:

The words an pictures leaking out from Essendon are representing that Heppell is having an incredible pre season and is in absolute tip top shape and is gearing up for another big year and looking to build on his debut season. Ross Lyon appears to be giving away nothing over in the west with minimal to no news on Broughto, or any of his teammatesfor that matter. Which is probably a good thing considering Greg’s history of getting injured because if there had been an injury you would think it would be reported?

Round 4 goes to…… Once again nothing to really go off here but given the hype on Heppell’s pre season he wins out in this category. (Score: 1-3)

Team Draw:

Both teams seem to face relatively easy draws in 2012 with Essendon playing 10 games at Etihad and 7 games at the ‘G’ through the course of the season (where Heppell averages 82.33 and 92.25 respectively), meanwhile, like always, Freo will play 12 games at Patersons (where Greg has averaged 91 over the course of his 29 games there).

Now looking to the teams that they play twice, in brackets is there average against that team and from how many games:

Essendon & Heppell: Collingwood (102/2), Richmond (105/2), Port (102/1), Carlton (81/2), North (58/1) – in total 91.875/8

Freo and Broughto: Port (96/3), West Coast (92.4/5), Adelaide (88.5/4), Richmond (82/3), Melbourne (60.33/3) – in total 85.05/18

When scanning over the fixture it seems as though Essendon have a larger portion of easier games in the first 11 rounds with Freo being the opposite, leading to Broughton perhaps being an upgrade target post Rd 12 and starting with Heppell a better option

Round 5 goes to…… Heppell, with minimal travel and a better average against the team he faces twice I would assume that Heppell would be the better option for a starter if deciding by this category. (Score: 1-4)

Conclusion:

Overall I believe that both will push for an average of 90+ and slip into the top 10 defenders come years end if they stay fit. However given the unknowns of Lyon’s game plan & Broughton’s knack of slipping into a lockdown defender roll, coupled with his inconsistency, hangs huge question marks over his head going into the 2012 season, making Heppell the safer and better choice in my opinion. Let us know your thoughts and comments below, feedback appreciated. (Once again thanks to McRath because I wouldn’t of been able to write this without the structure he set in his first two of these articles)

Good luck to all for the 2012 season

Robdog

Barlow and Hayes are undoubtedly the two biggest ‘premium bargains’ of 2012. Both are DT guns capable of amazing feats, with both having injury affected campaigns in 2011. Priced in a similar range, many will be choosing between the two for their 4th position in their all important midfield make up. Tempting as it is to take both, it will be difficult to do so within the salary cap; whilst still trying to maintain solid structure in the rest of your team.

With their injury woes hopefully behind them; watch for these guys to make amends for last year and make up for lost ground on the field. With a spot in their team’s best 21 assured; both are important players at their clubs and should be given every opportunity to return to their best in 2012.

Michael Barlow

Price: $424,800
Position: MID
Bye round: 12
Age: 24

2011 Details
Avg: 85.9
Games played: 9
High Score: 117
Low Score: 25 (sub affected)
No. 100 + scores: 3

2010 Details
Avg: 109.8
Games played: 13
High Score: 146
Low Score: 46
No. 100 + scores: 9

Lenny Hayes

Price: $382,800
Position: MID
Bye round: 13
Age: 32

2011 Details
Avg: 86
Games played: 2
High Score: 107
Low Score: 65
No. 100 + scores: 1

2010 Details
Avg: 108
Games played: 21
High Score: 140
Low Score: 65
No. 100 + scores: 17

Scoring Potential

Tossing aside the aberration that was their 2011 season, both players have a proven record of high scoring. With 9 out of 13 hundreds in his first season of AFL footy, Michael Barlow became an instant hit at the Dockers and was a fixture in the middle until his bad leg break mid 2010. With a high ceiling of 146 (against Collingwood no less), he has shown he can score and; score consistently when fit. Hayes on the other hand is a veteran at the Saints and is now coming into his 13th season in the AFL. Until last year he looked to be getting even better in his age, averaging 108 in 2010 over 21 games. In terms of his ceiling, he too can score highly gaining 7 x 120 + games in 2010 out of his 17 tons. It’s a bit hard to divide the two here as they are at different ends of their careers; however I’d say Hayes has the edge based on his sustained brilliance over time.

Durability

This ones a bit of a no brainer, however also isn’t really a fair comparison as Barlow has been affected by freak injuries during the start of his career. Playing just 13 games in his first season and 9 in his second; he won’t tick this box just yet however one can argue he hasn’t really had a fair chance to do so at AFL level just yet given his circumstances. Hayes on the other hand has a better looking record. Before last year’s anomaly, he played 80 of a possible 88 games in the preceding 4 years between 2007 and 2010. Having had 8 seasons of 19 games or more, Lenny has proven that when he is fit he can play out a whole season. As both are returning from injury, this contest is hard to predict and it all depends on how they come through the preseason and start the year.

Value

As mentioned above, these two guys present amazing value based their previous feats and potential. If Barlow hadn’t had his 2010 season cut short, who knows what he could’ve done? He could very well have been a Brownlow winner in his first year of AFL football (a truly amazing feat). Despite his injuries and absence of supposed durability, he appears to be largely underpriced as he is capable of a 110 + average and has unlimited future potential. Hayes however is priced with a juicy discount; meaning he is around the same price as someone with a 77 average. Given he could comfortably average 100 + if fit; he too is massively underpriced and presents himself as an underpriced premium who, barring injury should be worth his place in your final six midfielders come the business end of the year. It’s hard to say who offers more value out of the two; but with the discount and his lower price one would have to say Hayes takes the prize on this occasion.

Health/Fitness

Encouragingly, the recent news surrounding Barlow is that he is pain free and flying in the preseason; closing in on full fitness. He appears to be running freely and has recently completed a full 40 minute simulated match practice session without any signs of soreness. This is fantastic news for Fremantle fans and prospective DT coaches alike; as Barlow is primed to play a lot more football in 2012. Luckily for us, Hayes’ injury was well timed in that he went down early in 2011. This in turn means that he’s had almost a full year to recover. All reports out of the Saints camp indicate he is looking fit and well on track to start the season. Expect him to be eased back to match fitness with the NAB cup and early rounds. New coach Scott Watters may even look to rest him up forward ala Gary Ablett until he gets back to 100%. It’s hard to tell, but it looks like Barlow is looking the more likely of the two at this stage, however I’d expect both to be ready to go come round 1.

Team Draw

Fremantle have a mixed start to the year, playing Geelong, Sydney and Carlton all in the first five rounds, but then go on to play Gold Coast, Port, Adelaide and Richmond in the following 6 games. Overall though, they have a positive draw – playing only one top 8 team from 2011 twice (traditional rival West Coast). Ross Lyon will also be licking his lips at the prospect of playing Richmond, Melbourne, Port and Adelaide twice in the 2012 draw. Whilst Freo have a favourable draw, St Kilda has an even better fixture. Their first 3 rounds see them play Port, the Suns and the Bulldogs – before playing Freo, Melbourne and Hawthorn in Melbourne. In all, they play last years finalists Carlton and Sydney twice, but also have the benefit of playing the Dogs, Suns and Dees on multiple occasions. Expect the flattering draws to have a positive effect on these teams’ scoring in 2012, in particular both Barlow and Hayes.

Bye Week Relevance

Barlow has the round 12 bye, which means he will be missing in the same week as popular DT studs Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Joel Selwood. Coaches wanting to have more than one of these will have to think twice if they also want to cash in on the Freo gun. Have too many stars missing in any given week and it could result in a heavy loss or drop in ranking. Hayes similarly shares his bye with some big names in Gary Ablett Jnr, Marc Murphy and Sam Mitchell. As above, no matter what your strategy is; it may not serve you best having more than 2 midfield guns from the same bye week – so if you go with the Saints veteran, look to avoid starting with more than one of the above guns who have the bye in round 13.

On a side note, a popular strategy will be to choose the best midfield guns and 1 or 2 mid price bargains who will turn ‘keeper’ in 2012; then simply upgrade to the next best stars after the bye rounds. Based on their differing byes, teams could realistically start with both Barlow and Hayes without being drastically affected, given you don’t overload on guns in any given week.

Conclusion

These two lads are both excellent choices for your team and will be among the most popular players come round 1. All good coaches will strongly consider having at least one of them to start the season. Whilst Barlow is yet to put together a full season, his price offers amazing value for what we all know he can do – he just has to stay fit and out of Rhys Palmer’s way (luckily for him, Freo doesn’t play GWS until round 17). Hayes was touted as being a lock as soon as he went down last year; however with an awkward price and an aging body, coaches will have to think very hard about selecting him in their initial squad. As with all players returning from injury, we will need to wait until the last minute to confirm both players are fit and healthy; however I’m tipping both to fire from the start. For the record, Barlow is my pick for most likely of the two to return to DT prominence in 2012.

Click here to see the last ‘Versus’ article: Robinson v Martin

With the generous bestowal of MID/FWD DPP in 2012, these two gents will be among the most popular forward line options for coaches. Effectively having an additional midfielder sitting in your forward line; this appears to be a recipe for success for coaches in the upcoming season.

Poised at a similar price with high potential, Robbo and Martin may well be fighting it out in your team for that all important DPP spot. Many will opt for both; or may be considering others like Sidebottom, Beams, Fyfe or Zaharakis. However, it is my belief that these two offer the most upside in what will hopefully be a great year for both young players.

Mitch Robinson

Price: $456,200
Position: MID/FWD
Bye round: 13
Age: 22

2011 Details
Avg: 92.2
Games played: 21
High Score: 141
Low Score: 39 (sub affected)
No. 100 + scores: 8

Dustin Martin

Price: $442,500
Position: MID/FWD
Bye round: 13
Age: 20

2011 Details
Avg: 89.5
Games played: 22
High Score: 141
Low Score: 59
No. 100 + scores: 7

Scoring Potential

In 2011, both players showed they have a similar high ceiling of 141 and are capable of dominating games with their physicality and their ability to accumulate possessions. Robinson had a mixed start to the year, scoring 2 x hundreds and bottoming out during his season turning 39 against Geelong in round 9. From there he scored 6 tons and averaged 99.3 from round 10 to the Blues Semi-Final loss to West Coast. Martin had a slightly different year, starting off in a blaze of glory with scores of 98, 94, 113, 141 and 119 in the first 6 rounds. Whilst he had a slight lull in the latter half of the year, he finished off strongly with 3 consecutive scores above 90. Even with his sub affected 39 against Geelong, Robinson had a better year scoring wise and takes the edge here – however expect his counterpart to surge ahead in 2012.

Durability

Due to both players being quite young and only coming into their 4^th and 3^rd seasons respectively, it is difficult to confirm any real durability; however it is worth noting that Robinson played in all but 1 of Carlton’s games in 2011, with Martin not missing a single one – chalking up 22 games to go with his 21 in his debut season. Both players have promise to become very durable and are fit enough to run out a whole season. However if I had to choose, I’d say Martin has the edge here as he’s played 43 out of a possible 44 games in his first 2 seasons showing that he won’t likely miss a game in 2012. There is also the risk that Robinson may be suspended or injured due to his kamikaze playing style and hard at it approach.

Value

As two midfielders able to be chosen in the forward line, both players represent great value as they head into (what should be) their true ‘breakout’ years. With both capable of; and expected to average between 95 and 105, we can safely pick either of the two knowing it’s unlikely they’ll be this cheap again. I’d say Martin presents more value than Robinson as he should get more opportunities in his team; whilst I’m expecting him to turn out a higher average for 2012.

Health/Fitness

Word out of Carlton is that Mitch Robinson has returned from the break stronger and fitter than ever; and is set for an even bigger year after last year’s 2^nd half breakout. Martin has also come back fitter, however is looking leaner than last year – whilst also adding some more muscle to his frame. Expect both boys to make a bigger impact on the AFL stage this year with another year under their belts. It’s also handy to note that Martin is streets ahead of where he was last year; so with a better fitness platform coming into 2012, he will be ready to make a lasting impact from the get go.

Team Draw

Carlton appear to have the better draw in 2012, with the only troublesome games in the opening half of the year a clash with Collingwood in round 3; and back to back away games against Geelong and West Coast in rounds 11 + 12. Robinson should also end the year well, playing Brisbane, Essendon, Gold Coast and St Kilda for the DT finals.  Richmond has a slightly worrying opening to the year, having to play all 8 finalists from 2011 in the first 10 rounds. Expect Martin to still get plenty of the ball; however at times he may struggle in a team that is still improving. Like his opposite number here, he has a great finish to the year; playing Brisbane, the Bulldogs, Freo, Essendon and Port in his final 5 games for the year.

Conclusion

Whilst Robinson appears to be a great option with his DPP, value and expected increase in output for 2012; Martin can be considered the safer pick out of the two. Playing against the best of 2011 so early will give him a chance to really step up and prove himself on the big stage. With a good price and plenty of upside, Dustin Martin will be among the most picked players in 2012. As they share the same bye in what appears to be a dreaded round 13 for coaches; many will be sceptical about picking both in their teams to start with. However barring injury or suspension, expect these two to both be inside the top 10 scoring ‘forwards’ for 2012.

So you have made it to the final or you are just looking to make sure you end up with the best possible national ranking that you can.  Well we all know that with the 8 locked away and all but 2 positions in the 8 virtually decided, it is time for coaches to get on the horn and get General Soreness down to the club to sort a few people out.  What this means for us is that we either have to have a bench that is fairly well loaded with guys getting a game or have a couple of trades up our sleeves.  In my case it is a little of each, a few guys playing and one trade left (my opponent this week already knows how many I have so it doesn’t matter…).

We already knew we would be without Stanton, Watson and Heppell this week, but then we get the news that Fyfe, Lower, Otten and Daisy Thomas would also be out so we were prepared for them to miss on Monday, but the real carnage comes on a Thursday night when we find out that Buddy, Hodgey, Birch, and Cyril are also going to miss!

These guys will get a DT Premiership Medal for you

Last time Andy Krakouer played the Cats he only scored 66pts, his form of late has been a touch patchy, with a 108, 86, 55, miss with injury and a 96.  So he has the potential to get a good score and I think he will, but he can burn you too.

Matty Wright is a Crow that has been good apart from one game in his last few and that was his red vested 31 against Brisbane.  He rebounded against the Tigers with a tidy 85.  Certainly consider this guy.

One guy I do trust is The Gu who has really shown his talent of late with only one score under 75 in his last 7.  He comes up against the Doggies, but I don’t think this will really trouble him too much and he should come through with another big score for you.  Despite his 52 last week, I am going to still recommend Zac Clarke because there is pretty much no one left to play for Freo this week!  His form has been all over 82 in his last 7 games except for last week, so he should still have a good output.

Nick Duigan scored 77 last time he plyed the Saints and his form at the time was about the same as it is now, so I think he should be a fairly safe bet, but he won’t get you a massive score this week.

Not sure why Allen Christensen got the green vest last week, perhaps he lost the raffle?  He only scored 30, but after a week off and less than half a game, I see him getting a full outing against Collingwood this week, my only concern here is that he is listed last on the bench.  Last time against Collingwood he had a green23, but don’t be put off by that, since round 14 he has had a 4 tons and a heap of good scores.

Dion Prestia, Danny Stanley and David Swallow have all been good performers for our teams all year (well most of it in Prestia’s case) and I see no reason that their recent form shouldn’t continue this week.  All of these guys should be scoring in the 70 – 90 range this week, However, when they played the Hawks last, Prestia had 28 and Stanley 83 and Swallow didn’t make the trip.  But I think their form of late has been much better than that and that was Prestia’s worst Non Vest score of the year.

Paul Puopolo had an 68 when he played the Suns at Launceston but his scoring was in the 60′s then.  Lately he has been drifting towards the forward line and snagging a couple of goals here and there, he won’t score 129 like last week, but he will certainly do better than 68.  Teammate Luke Breust is another that has really come on since last time, however, his first game against the Suns was also his first full game after coping 5 green vests in a row to start his career, and he repayed us with a monster 112 that day.  Given he is playing better and more consistently now, I would stick with him!  Rounding out the Hawks we have David Hale who won’t have much opposition and has been scoring in the 70 – 100 range of late and I can’t see that changing particularly with Bailey out, he will get more time on the ball and potentially stay on the ground for more of the game.  Isaac Smith had a down day last week (thanks, it helped me win a couple of games) but I think this will turn around against the Gold Coast this week.  He had a 99 last time they met and I expect nothing to change this time.

Cameron Pedersen didn’t do too well last week, but I think he has one more good score left in him.  He has a 69 last week but a 114 the week before.

How happy does it make me to put a couple of Power boys in this list…  John Butcher has been sensational for Port, and he hasn’t been too bad for the DT’ers too.  58, 67 and 93 in his first 3 games.  If you do have him, well done.  If you have to play him he should be ok, but he would be a good choice as bench cover.  Matty Lobbe has been good for the Power and has been over 70 and up to 93 in his last 4.  Just beware that Brogan is back so Lobbe may lose some points.

Ty Vickery has had two 80′s in his last two and has played well up forward kicking a few goals last week.  I would have confidence playing him this week if you need to.  His mate Dean Polo has come back to a reasonable score last week of 94.  He had a couple of weeks of 60′s there but hopefully he is back to where he was this week.

For those of you like me who picked up Andrew Gaff at the start of the year and realised he didn’t make enough cash to trade him and held him, you are reaping the rewards now.  He has had some great scores of late, his only poor one was 57 two weeks ago.  I will be playing him (through lack of players, thanks Hawks) and I think he should score a tidy 85+.

Risky picks, but sometimes the X Factor can win you the GF…

Patty Karnezis must think his car has broken down at the lights.  In the last three he has gone Greenvest, Redvest and then Greenvest again!.  I think his propensity for a vest and poor scoring of late mean he shouldn’t be on your ground this week.  Teammate Sam Sheldon also dropped off last week with a 52 and that worries me.  He had a good run of 3 games prior to that, but no real form prior to those 3.  Risky, but playable maybe.

Speaking of an X Factor, and not that crap tv show, Alex Fasolo would have to fall into that category.  He has been plodding along very nicely of late and has had some good scores, but I just wonder how he will go against the top contender in Geelong.  He scored 43 against Hawthorn, Green 21 against Carlton and 50 against the Saints so against those sides towards the top of the ladder he has struggled a bit.

Clayton Hinkley is a name that most won’t know and is my out and out smokey this week, but he is one of the Dockers that is still standing and has had 73 and green63 in the last two weeks, if he doesn’t cop a vest he could get himself a reasonable score? Maybe?

Harley Bennell is an interesting guy at the Gold Coast.  I just don’t know how to rate him I just don’t have the confidence in him.   Harley hangs around in the 50′s and 60′s mostly so I wouldn’t risk him.  You could also throw Brandon Matera into the mix too.  Since he lit it up against Port in Rd 5 (although that round has been permanently wiped from my memory) he has done pretty much nothing.  He had 6 weeks off then scored 70 last week.  I won’t be playing him.  Zac Smith has really ground to a halt at the end of the year and against Hale this week I think he will struggle again.

I have had to drop Stefan Martin to this area this week.  He has now been consistent, but only getting 60′s.  Just be aware that this is what you will get.

Kieren Harper will be ok, but he is really only Cinnamon.  I reckon maybe 65 max for him.

Tom Liberatore has made a comeback and he he has a 71, 97 and 60 in the last few.  So I think against a depleted Dockers outfit I think he should bet 60ish again.  His mates Tutty and Dahlhaus are a little questionable for me.  They can score well, but will they?

That’s it for Get Off The Bench for the year.  I wish you all the best for the Grand Final this week.  Thanks for reading throughout the year, I hope I have helped you, if not, well sorry about that!  I have certainly enjoyed trying to sift through the rif raf of the bench cover that we all have.  Next year we may not need to rely on these guys too much, or certainly not so many of them!  Have a great off season and I will see what I can do to help you pick your best side going into next year.  Catch you all over the summer in Twittertown @pkd73

Defenders

1. Puopolo
2. Stanley
3. Duigan
4. Pedersen
5. Polo
6. Martin
7. Tutt
8. Talia

Midfielders

1. I Smith
2. Mzungu
3. Swallow
4. Krakouer
5. Gaff
6. Christensen
7. Wright
8. Prestia
9. Fasolo
10. Hinkley
11. Bennell
12. Sheldon
13. Liberatore

Rucks

1. Hale
2. Vickery
3. Z Clarke
4. Lobbe
5. Zmith

Forwards

1. I Smith
2. Mzungu
3. Hale
4. Breust
5. Krakouer
6. Butcher
7. Prestia
8. Lobbe
9. Dahlhaus

Collingwood v Geelong Cats
MCG – Fri Sep 02, 7:40pm

Collingwood

B: Alan Toovey, Ben Reid, Heritier O’Brien
HB: Ben Johnson, Chris Tarrant, Tyson Goldsack
C: Dayne Beams, Sharrod Wellingham, Alan Didak
HF: Ben Sinclair, Leigh Brown, Alex Fasolo
F: Steele Sidebottom, Travis Cloke, Luke Ball
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Andrew Krakouer
I/C: Dane Swan, Chris Dawes, Cameron Wood, Jarryd Blair
Emg: Brent Macaffer, Luke Rounds, Simon Buckley

In: Sharrod Wellingham, Luke Ball, Chris Tarrant
Out: Leon Davis (Hamstring), Dale Thomas (Suspension), Tom Young

Geelong Cats

B: Josh Hunt, Matthew Scarlett, Darren Milburn
HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Andrew Mackie
C: Jimmy Bartel, Cameron Ling, David Wojcinski
HF: Steve Johnson, Trent West, Travis Varcoe
F: Paul Chapman, James Podsiadly, Tom Hawkins
Foll: Brad Ottens, James Kelly, Joel Selwood
I/C: Mathew Stokes, Daniel Menzel, Mitch Duncan, Allen Christensen
Emg: Shannon Byrnes, Steven Motlop, Cameron Guthrie

In: Darren Milburn, Mitch Duncan
Out: Shannon Byrnes, Tom Lonergan (Quad Contusion)

Gold Coast Suns v Hawthorn
MS – Sat Sep 03, 1:10pm

Gold Coast Suns

B: Karmichael Hunt, Nathan Bock, Josh Toy
HB: Jarrod Harbrow, Joel Tippett, Maverick Weller
C: Harley Bennell, Gary Ablett, Trent McKenzie
HF: Daniel Stanley, Jared Brennan, Luke Russell
F: Brandon Matera, Rory Thompson, Josh Fraser
Foll: Zac Smith, David Swallow, Michael Rischitelli
I/C: Matt Shaw, Dion Prestia, Josh Caddy, Jacob Gillbee
Emg: Sam Iles, Joel Wilkinson, Seb Tape

In: Josh Fraser, Josh Toy, Jacob Gillbee, Joel Tippett
Out: Sam Iles, Tom Hickey, Seb Tape, Nathan Ablett

New: Jacob Gillbee (Lauderdale, TAS)

Hawthorn

B: Brent Guerra, Josh Gibson, Kyle Cheney
HB: Benjamin Stratton, Ryan Schoenmakers, Thomas Murphy
C: Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Chance Bateman
HF: Shane Savage, Jordan Lisle, Brendan Whitecross
F: Michael Osborne, Paul A. Johnson, Luke Breust
Foll: David Hale, Liam Shiels, Xavier Ellis
I/C: Rick Ladson, Matt Suckling, Paul Puopolo, Cameron Bruce
Emg: Will Sierakowski, Riley Milne, Jordan Williams

In: Chance Bateman, Xavier Ellis, Rick Ladson, Sam Mitchell, Paul A. Johnson, Jordan Lisle, Benjamin Stratton, Kyle Cheney
Out: Max Bailey (Rested), Grant Birchall (Rested), Lance Franklin (Rested), Luke Hodge (Rested), Jordan Lewis (Rested), Brad Sewell (Rested), Cyril Rioli (Rested), Shaun Burgoyne (Rested)

New: Paul A. Johnson (West Coast Eagles)

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
ES – Sat Sep 03, 2:10pm

Western Bulldogs

B: Jayden Schofield, Lukas Markovic, Easton Wood
HB: Robert Murphy, Ed Barlow, Liam Picken
C: Jason Tutt, Matthew Boyd, Mitchell Wallis
HF: Jarrad Grant, Liam Jones, Daniel Giansiracusa
F: Luke Dahlhaus, Barry Hall, Jordan Roughead
Foll: Ben Hudson, Callan Ward, Ryan Griffen
I/C: Daniel Cross, Shaun Higgins, Patrick Veszpremi, Thomas Liberatore
Emg: Dylan Addison, Josh Hill, Christian Howard

In: Ben Hudson, Easton Wood, Mitchell Wallis
Out: Dylan Addison, Josh Hill, Ayce Cordy (Hand)

Fremantle

B: Greg Broughton, Luke McPharlin, Antoni Grover
HB: Michael Johnson, Alex Silvagni, Paul Duffield
C: Jayden Pitt, Stephen Hill, Nick Suban
HF: Ryan Crowley, Kepler Bradley, Byron Schammer
F: Jack Anthony, Christopher Mayne, Zachary Clarke
Foll: Aaron Sandilands, Michael Barlow, Tendai Mzungu
I/C: Clayton Hinkley, Benjamin Bucovaz, Clancee Pearce, Justin Bollenhagen
Emg: Casey Sibosado, Hamish Shepheard, Joel Houghton

In: Antoni Grover, Benjamin Bucovaz, Justin Bollenhagen, Alex Silvagni, Jayden Pitt
Out: Garrick Ibbotson (Shoulder), Rhys Palmer (Groin), Nathan Fyfe (Shoulder), Peter Faulks (Jaw), Nick Lower (Suspension)

Milestones: Kepler Bradley – 100 games

Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
SCG – Sat Sep 03, 4:10pm

Sydney Swans

B: Rhyce Shaw, Ted Richards, Alex Johnson
HB: Martin Mattner, Heath Grundy, Nicholas Smith
C: Josh P. Kennedy, Adam Goodes, Jarrad McVeigh
HF: Ryan O’Keefe, Jesse White, Matt Spangher
F: Daniel Hannebery, Sam Reid, Ben McGlynn
Foll: Shane Mumford, Jude Bolton, Kieren Jack
I/C: Tadhg Kennelly, Craig Bird, Gary Rohan, Luke Parker
Emg: Paul Bevan, Nick Malceski, Lewis Jetta

In: Jarrad McVeigh
Out: Brett Meredith

Milestones: Nicholas Smith – 50 games, Daniel Hannebery – 50 games

Brisbane Lions

B: Jed Adcock, Matt Maguire, Niall McKeever
HB: Mitchell Golby, Josh Drummond, Pearce Hanley
C: Cheynee Stiller, Andrew Raines, Tom Rockliff
HF: Sam Sheldon, Bryce Retzlaff, James Polkinghorne
F: Patrick Karnezis, Aaron Cornelius, Ashley McGrath
Foll: Matthew Leuenberger, Simon Black, Jack Redden
I/C: James Hawksley, Daniel Rich, Todd Banfield, Ryan Harwood
Emg: Amon Buchanan, Josh Dyson, Joshua Green

In: James Hawksley, Ryan Harwood
Out: Luke Power (Retired), Brent Staker (Knee)

Carlton v St Kilda
MCG – Sat Sep 03, 7:10pm

Carlton

B: Lachlan Henderson, Michael Jamison, Aaron Joseph
HB: Zach Tuohy, Nick Duigan, Christopher Yarran
C: Kade Simpson, Marc Murphy, Heath Scotland
HF: Andrew Walker, Setanta O’hAilpin, Jeffrey Garlett
F: Eddie Betts, Matthew Kreuzer, Mitch Robinson
Foll: Robert Warnock, Bryce Gibbs, Chris Judd
I/C: Andrew Carrazzo, Dennis Armfield, Kane Lucas, Jeremy Laidler
Emg: Jordan Russell, David Ellard, Marcus Davies

In: Setanta O’hAilpin, Kane Lucas, Zach Tuohy
Out: Bret Thornton (Soreness), David Ellard, Marcus Davies

St Kilda

B: Sam Gilbert, Zac Dawson, Raphael Clarke
HB: Brendon Goddard, Sam Fisher, Dean Polo
C: Sean Dempster, Nick Dal Santo, Jason Gram
HF: Brett Peake, Nick Riewoldt, Adam Schneider
F: Stephen Milne, Justin Koschitzke, Jack Steven
Foll: Ben McEvoy, Clinton Jones, Leigh Montagna
I/C: Jason Blake, Michael S. Gardiner, Jarryn Geary, Farren Ray
Emg: Steven Baker, Alistair Smith, Ryan Gamble

In: Michael S. Gardiner
Out: David Armitage (Suspension)

West Coast Eagles v Adelaide
PS – Sat Sep 03, 5:10pm

West Coast Eagles

B: Shannon Hurn, Darren Glass, Sam Butler
HB: Ashley Smith, Eric Mackenzie, Beau Waters
C: Luke Shuey, Matthew Priddis, Andrew Embley
HF: Andrew Gaff, Josh Kennedy, Mark Nicoski
F: Jack Darling, Quinten Lynch, Mark LeCras
Foll: Dean Cox, Scott Selwood, Adam Selwood
I/C: Chris Masten, Bradley Ebert, Nic Naitanui, Patrick McGinnity
Emg: Brett Jones, Andrew Strijk, Ashton Hams

In: Sam Butler, Jack Darling
Out: Will Schofield (cheek), Ashton Hams

Adelaide

B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Daniel Talia
HB: Michael Doughty, Shaun McKernan, Brent Reilly
C: Rory Sloane, Scott Thompson, David Mackay
HF: Jared Petrenko, Kurt Tippett, Bernie Vince
F: Ricky Henderson, Taylor Walker, Richard Douglas
Foll: Sam Jacobs, Patrick Dangerfield, Nathan van Berlo
I/C: Tony Armstrong, Matthew Wright, Richard Tambling, Ian Callinan
Emg: Ivan Maric, Luke Thompson, Brodie Smith

In: Michael Doughty, Ricky Henderson, Richard Tambling, Ian Callinan
Out: Andy Otten (Concussion), Brodie Martin (Groin), Aidan Riley, Jack Gunston (Shoulder)

Port Adelaide v Melbourne
AO – Sun Sep 04, 2:40pm

Port Adelaide

B: Troy Chaplin, Alipate Carlile, Tom Logan
HB: Jacob Surjan, Jackson Trengove, Cameron O’Shea
C: Steven Salopek, Travis Boak, Danyle Pearce
HF: Brett Ebert, John Butcher, Robert Gray
F: Daniel Motlop, Jay Schulz, Justin Westhoff
Foll: Matthew Lobbe, Domenic Cassisi, David Rodan
I/C: Dean Brogan, Kane Cornes, Matt Thomas, Matthew Broadbent, Mitchell Banner, Aaron Young, Thomas Jonas

In: Dean Brogan, Kane Cornes, Aaron Young

New: Aaron Young (Eastern Ranges)
Milestones: Brett Ebert – 150 games

Melbourne

B: Sam Blease, James Frawley, Tom McDonald
HB: Colin Garland, Jared Rivers, Clint Bartram
C: Nathan Jones, Jordie McKenzie, Jamie Bennell
HF: Brad Green, Jack Watts, Jack Trengove
F: Tom Scully, Stefan Martin, Neville Jetta
Foll: Mark Jamar, Cale Morton, Brent Moloney
I/C: Matthew Bate, Tom McNamara, Rohan Bail, Luke Tapscott, Jack Fitzpatrick, Jeremy Howe, Daniel Nicholson

In: Matthew Bate, Rohan Bail, Jack Fitzpatrick, Daniel Nicholson
Out: Liam Jurrah (Wrist)

New: Jack Fitzpatrick (Western Jets)
Milestones: Stefan Martin – 50 games

Richmond v North Melbourne
ES – Sun Sep 04, 4:40pm

Richmond

B: Bachar Houli, Alex Rance, Will Thursfield
HB: Brett Deledio, Jayden Post, Matt Dea
C: Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shaun Grigg
HF: Daniel Jackson, Tyrone Vickery, Shane Edwards
F: Robin Nahas, Jack Riewoldt, Brad Miller
Foll: Angus Graham, Shane Tuck, Nathan Foley
I/C: Matthew White, Mitch Morton, Mitchell Farmer, Jeromey Webberley, Ben Nason, Jamie O’Reilly, Dean MacDonald

In: Matthew White, Matt Dea, Ben Nason, Dean MacDonald
Out: Jake King (Suspension)

New: Dean MacDonald (Gippsland Power)
Milestones: Brett Deledio – 150 games

North Melbourne

B: Brady Rawlings, Scott Thompson, Scott McMahon
HB: Kieran Harper, Nathan Grima, Michael Firrito
C: Ryan Bastinac, Ben Cunnington, Lindsay Thomas
HF: Matt Campbell, Hamish McIntosh, Aaron Black
F: Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Aaron Edwards
Foll: Todd Goldstein, Leigh Adams, Andrew Swallow
I/C: Daniel Pratt, Ben Warren, Cruize Garlett, Jamie Macmillan, Shaun Atley, Cameron Pedersen, Aaron Mullett

In: Hamish McIntosh, Daniel Pratt, Ben Warren, Ben Cunnington, Aaron Black, Jamie Macmillan, Shaun Atley
Out: Daniel Wells (Shoulder), Lachlan Hansen (Shoulder), Levi Greenwood (Suspension), Jack Ziebell (Suspension)

New: Aaron Black (Peel Thunder (WA))
Milestones: Hamish McIntosh – 100 games

ARRRRRGGGGGG – that’s a big one!
Welcome for the last time in season 2011 to Calvin’s Captains, the greatest DT captains write up in the land. This week we are not messing around with who not to pick and all that shit… it’s the top 5 only, so don’t bother asking… “Where’s whatshisname” cause I know my stuff and have looked after you very well this year… so in Calvin you trust. Check it out!

Dane Swan should be awesome. He had 115 (30d, 8m) on Geelong this year in Rd. 8 and has previous scores on them of 141, 127 and 94 (all in 2010). In this game, Cameron Ling aka the Pink Pig tagged him during the 1^st quarter and then was moved off him. Only 7 players cracked the 100+ from both teams in this game with Stevie J top scoring with 129. Joel Selwood was good with 121, but Pendles only managed 89. Swanny had a nice 125 (35d) last week and has averaged 127 over the last 3. He’s going for his 6^th straight 100+ score at the MCG this week and is coming off 119 and 171 there in his last 2. Surely he’s ya man?

Sam Mitchell plays the Suns this week and what a great option he’ll be. He had 132 (38d, 8m) last time he played them this year and was one of 9 Hawks to crack the triple figures that day. But he had a week off? Last time he did that this year he bounced back for 129 (Rd.4) and a 113 (Rd.18) and I’m tipping for him to be awesome again this week.

Gary Ablett is worth a thought too. 135 last time he played the Hawks with 34d, 8t and 5m to go with his previous scores against them of 100, 120, 131, 123 and 115. He’s had 142 and 118 in his last 2 games at Metricon and should be great. Last week the Bulldogs only managed 3×100+ scores on the Hawks and they were Boyd 108, Griff 105 and Cross 103 so we know the Hawks don’t give much away but Gazza will cash in for shizzle this week.

Matthew Boyd had his career best DT score EVER last time he played the Dockers… and that was this year. He had 162pts and is going for his 8^th straight 100+ score this year at Etihad where he has averaged 114 there in his last 3… worth a thought for sure.

Tom Rockliff has been in better form over the last 3 games than anyone listed here today averaging 129. His lowest score has just been 110 in his last 9 games this year and is ending the year like a Rocky Steam Train. Certain ‘roughie’ this week.

Good question and my answer is this.

Will you win if you match your Swan against your opponent’s Swan?  Meaning, is your team better on paper? If the answer is ‘YES, my team is better’ and match their captain with the Swan. But if yours is worse? You need a roughie… but don’t go silly! You just need to go someone other than Swan hoping that Swan gets subbed or something unthinkable like that happens. Simply pick a dude from the list above and cross your little DT fingers that they will smash out a 150+! Certainly can happen on any given day from those boys.

Anyway… that’s enough for me. Thanks heaps to everyone for a wickedarse season. My personal highlight was getting Gazza’s 175 at Patersons Playground this year, despite what people might think… getting our logo next to my top pick on fanfooty was a close second J.  I’m looking forward to getting back in here next year (when my team is better) to pumped out more captains advice for our DT TALK dedicated fans like you. So thanks again lads.

The Thornley–Hopkins Trophy

Award for most vests – both red and green.  With one game to go it’s going down to the wire.  Whips are cracking for the coaches’ whipping boys.

Bewick and Breust lead on 7 vests, one ahead of Armfield, Christensen, Rodan and Masten.

My jeweller is on standby to make several copies of the trophy in the case of a tie.

Full standings:

Where is the sub likely to be named on Thursday night?

Green vested subs have become less of a problem as the year has progressed and most DT coaches have less rookies.  However, a wrong vested player might still determine a few grand finals.

So what have we learned?

• Collingwood is the least predictable – Malthouse is obviously of the Bruce Lee school of sub selection – “my style is no style”.
• Brisbane is the most predictable – the sub is usually on the interchange in no.4 spot or having a surname starting with Bewick (or Karnezis which is Greek for Bewick).
• The Scott twins are probably the most frustrating with lots of late exclusions and inclusions, as well as naming subs on the field.

Some teams have quite strong biases for some positions, but these wash out in the overall stats.  In order to be meaningful you have to look on a team by team basis.

The full list follows – I’ve highlighted biases.

I’ve used this information to pick 2 potential green vested players in each team for the last 10 rounds (in order to avoid naming them in my starting 22).  So far my success rate is 55% for 22 man squads, and 48% for 25 man squads.

I’m still in 3 grand finals this week, I lost 2 prelims last week (don’t get me started on Puopolo and Riewoldt).

Good luck everyone,

Nix

Brent Stanton (454,900)

Name: Tom Rockliff
Price: 453,100
Av last 3: 128
AV last 5: 126
Opponent: Sydney
Thoughts: How many times have I tried to tell you its all about the Rockwizz. Yes I have a man crush etc. But why wouldn’t I when he has single handily got me into the GF and to a respectable national ranking. Is it scary that his next game is against Sydney at their home ground? I say no, not with 10 straight 100 point scores with only 1 of them being under 110. You are going to have him next year so you might as well get to know him this week.

Jobe Watson (348,100)

Name: Daniel Cross
Price: 351,100
Av last 3: 98
AV last 5: 89
Opponent: Fremantle @ES
Thoughts: In the last 3 weeks Cross has not dropped below 92 and should get among what should be a feeding frenzy of points against the Dockers. His scoring has increased since the Dogs coaching staff changed and he is as close to a premium as you will get for this lowly price.

Dyson Heppell (325,900)

Name: Grant Birchall
Price: 324,700
Av last 3: 96
AV last 5: 86
Opponent: GC
Thoughts: Birch is coming off a handy 113 which makes it 2 hundred point scores in the last 3 weeks and he is coming up against the DT friendly Suns. Last time Birch went up against the GC he had a handy 101, so expect much the same this week.

Dale Thomas (376,200)

Name: Liam Shiels
Price: 364,800
Av last 3: 91
AV last 5: 89
Opponent: GC
Thoughts: Although Shiels has been inconsistent of late, the Suns provide the perfect platform to get some runs on the board in the week leading up to finals. In the last 4 weeks he has had 2 hundred point scores. The beauty of Shiels is he has a high ceiling with a number of scores over 130 during the year. Be warned: has been up and down, but it could pay off.

Well, this is the last Trade Talk for the year, so you know the routine by now. Use this as a forum to discuss all things trade, and help each other out to make the right decisions.

Prelim final week.  Should be a happy time and we all have our teams set for the end of the year… no, of course it can’t be that easy!  We already knew we would have to combat the bye and of course our best mate General Soreness who usually pokes his ugly head in at this time of year.  Now we have that old favourite “the stupid footballer” who goes and gets himself injured or suspended just when we need him most.  I know one of these is on Warnie’s never again list and that is Colin Sylvia.  On top of that we have Matthew Pavlich who is now gone for the year and with that we are also missing our Carlton Premiums.  So we have a number of large holes in our teams that we need to plug.  If you have the luxury of a trade or two I would suggest using them to make sure you get through to the GF, otherwise you need to sift through the dregs of your bench to find yourself some chocolate topping for your donuts!

Play em, they are the best of the bunch

I am going to through in a new name first up this week…. Jack Gunston from the Crows has had 4 good games from his last 5 with his only fail coming against the Cats.  He has two 70′s and a 104 from his last 4.  He sneaks forward and kicks a goal or two occasionally as well.  For the 4005 that have him… well done, he will provide nice cover.  Team mates Dan Talia and Andy Otten have been good value also with solid scores in the 60′s and 80′s.  Both of them should score well against Richmond this week.  Matthew Wright scored a red vest last week, I am not sure why, but it limited his great run of scoring.  I think he should come back with a decent one this week.

Sam Sheldon from Brisbane has a good run of scores going with 79 73 and 85 over the last few.  With a home game against the West Coast I hope he can come through again.

Rising Star nominee Alex Fasolo has been on a good run of late with his lowest being a 50 out of his last 5 which have all been unvested.  On the Playground this week I am sure he will find himself in plenty of open space as will Andrew Krakouer who has dropped off in his scoring and was a late withdrawal last week.

Dyson Heppell continues to prove me wrong, just when I think he is struggling he plucks another great score and well done to him for not missing a game (apart from bye’s) all year.  A credit to him and as he is up against my Power this week, unfortunately for me, he should rip out a big score like the rest of his teammates.

Zac Clarke has maintained his scoring even with Sandi back.  His 129 on the weekend was his best for the year and his first ton (not getting into debate on spelling grammar or anything else like Chook had to!).  If you are a bit thin in the ruck then playing him may be a good option.   Tendai Mzungu has been a saviour for most of us lately and I know a few people have been playing him in front of some of their premiums!  I predict a score of 90+ again for him this week and he should be your first picked Off the Bench.

Allen Christensen has been a find for the Cats and back at Skilled this week he should be able to demonstrate his value yet again!  His form has been great and I reckon he should deliver another score of 80+.

Our Gold Coast Suns are finding out what the rigours of AFL footy are.  However, many would be questioning why their second bye was in round 9!  Our regular guys from the Gold Coast should be our regulars still with Danny Stanley, Dion Prestia and David Swallow all able to score well.  However, as predicted here last week, David Swallow wore the green with pride on Saturday to give him a bit of a rest so he can get through the season.  I think all these guys should be fairly safe bets against Melbourne as they all get their first game at the MCG.

Isaac Smith continued to show us why he should be almost a certainty for our sides each week with a 75 and teammate David Hale showed his worth with a 71.  These two should have a day out against the Dogs.  I think that Puopolo will recover from his 46 with a good score against the Dogs.  He scored 99 against them earlier this year and I think he should be able to replicate that this week as the Dogs are playing for pride and the Hawks to keep their spot in 3rd rather than drop to 4th and have to play Collingwood.

Stefan Martin has maintained his consistency, however, it isn’t in the 90′s where it was earlier in the year but is in the 60′s now and against the Gold Coast this week I would expect 65 as a minimum for him.

Cam Pedersen finds himself on the bench but he should get a full game and he would be a very safe bet with 114 and I expect him to get a big job down back on either Rooey or Kosi.  He should see a fair bit of the ball with these two guys leading him to it.

Matt Lobbe will again benefit from Brogan still out.  He scored a nice 93 last week.  Fellow ruckman Vickery has also come along in the last few weeks with an 83 in his last.  Either of these two boys should do you well if you need to play them.

Keep the faith with Andrew Gaff I think he still has some good scores left in him.  He struggled again last week with 57, but I think that he should do well this week against the Lions.  With Kerr out, it may mean some more midfield time for Gaff which should elevate his scoring nicely.

Things are desperate if you need these guys to help you out!

For those that picked up Karnezis on my recommendations, sorry, but his scoring of late has been very poor.  He followed his green vest in rd21 with a red one and 8 pts in round 22.

I hate to do it but Nick Lower can’t be trusted at the moment, with a 96, then 11 and then a week off who knows how he will rebound this week!  Unfortunately I think there will be quite a few of us that have no choice but to play him!

Zac Smith is back this week, but given his recent form he is a very questionable proposition.  Personally I wouldn’t rely on him unless I really needed to.  I think the long season has caught up with him and it has showed in his scoring.

Luke Breust has gone back to his vested ways in the last two which worries me a bit that he may be running out of legs .  Shane Savage returns this week, but I wouldn’t run the risk and I expect him to get the green vest in this first game back.

Jeremy Howe has been a popular pick this year, but after 2 points and a red vest on the weekend, don’t be surprised if he swaps his red for green this week.  Don’t play him.

Keiren Harper is a risk if you ask me, so I wouldn’t play him unless you need to.  he did have a 79 last week, but I don’t see a great deal of consistency in his scoring.

Tom Liberatore came good last week against the Power following up his previous 71 with a 97.  I don’t expect him to be as free flowing this week but he should still be ok for a reasonable but not brilliant score.

Good luck to you all this week if you are still in your leagues, even if you are playing in the Tit-Ed Cup.  Be wary about your selections as we may see some of our big guns who are a bit tired getting a vest if they are worn out. Catch you all this weekend on Twitter @pkd73

Defenders

1. Heppell
2. Stanley
3. Martin
4. Pedersen
5. Puopolo
6. Talia
7. Lower

Midfielders

1. Heppell
2. Christensen
3. I Smith
4. Mzungu
5. Krakouer
6. Swallow
7. Prestia
8. Gaff
9. Fasolo
10. Sheldon
11. Liberatore

Ruck

1. Hale
2. Lobbe
3. Clarke
4. Vickery

Forwards

1. I Smith
2. Mzungu
3. Hale
4. Prestia
5. Krakouer
6. Breust
7. Gunston
8. Lobbe
9. Harper
10. Talia