Three-or-more gamers

A glance at the Chook’s Rooks back catalogue might have you thinking I’m a pessimistic little bastard but, honestly, I really do believe it’s important to look for the positives in life. Like, if you were a Lovatic, (an obsessive fan of nearly-no-longer-a-teen singer-actress Demi Lovato, but as if you didn’t know), then you’d be spewing that the Camp Rock star will be getting just a million bucks for her work as a judge on the US version of X-Factor, while that no-talent, washed-up hack Britney Spears will pocket 15 times that for doing the same job. The positive? Having a co-judge as crazy-bad as Britney will make Lovato seem like a pop genius and genuinely nice gal in comparison. Sorry for the reality TV singing show reference, (I’ll leave them exclusively to RL Griffin from now on ;)), but I just wanted to use an analogy that the 13-year-old Dream Team coaches would understand when I point out that there’s even a silver lining to the poor round-eight effort of their classmate, Greater Western Sydney midfielder Toby Greene. Sure, scoring a lowly 50 points – lumping the usual high-flyer with the Sam Days and Tim Mohrs of the DT world – might’ve brought Greene’s soaring price to a screeching halt, but at least it’s made the often stressful decision of which midfield rookie to cull next an easy one, right? And, just for good measure, he even got himself rubbed out for a week in case you weren’t totally convinced. Positives, people, positives!
After that diatribe above, I’ve got to say Greene, right? Um, I don’t want to. Greene has shown he’s got a higher ceiling than both of the others and, although the GWS kids are being touted as getting capped at 14 games this year, the fact that Greene is having an enforced rest this week increases his longevity, in my mind. Plus he had five free-kicks against in that 50, meaning he could’ve quite easily scored a more respectable 60+ – not terrible in a team that got smashed. Classic fence-sitting by me.

It certainly won’t be Gold Coast’s Kyal Horsley on the chopping block any time soon, with the mature-age mid again turning a modest number of possessions into a staggeringly awesome Dream Team total. Okay, 27 touches isn’t exactly modest, but there’s no doubting that The Horse is raking in the big scores on the back of his willingness to tackle like a man possessed. He had seven in his score of 108 against the Western Bulldogs, actually dragging his average tackles per game down to 8.5. After four games he’s averaging 106.8 ppg, putting him on track to pass previous rookie greats like Joel Selwood, Rhys Palmer and even Michael Barlow. Long may it last.
While Horsley has scored big before, the rest of the top five from round eight were breaking new ground. Port Adelaide’s Darren Pfeiffer and Brisbane’s Dayne Zorko, both mid-fwds, had sub-affected 26s to their name in their previous games, but smashed out 90s when given a full game on the weekend. The next best were a pair of ruckmen, with Adelaide’s Josh Jenkins notching a 92 and Zorko’s teammate Billy Longer grabbing an 81. Zorko and Jenkins are on the bubble, so more about them later.

At the other end of the scale, Greene wasn’t the only GWS rookie to score lowly in their big loss to Brisbane, with mid-fwd Taylor Adams and Adam Treloar also struggling to make much of an impact. Unlike Greene, however, they’ve still got reasonable breakevens. That’s not the case for Brandon Ellis, with the Richmond defender copping his second consecutive green vest. A much earlier appearance this week meant he was able to scrape together a respectable 44 (better than non-vested teammate Steven Morris, who had 40), but he still dropped $16,600 and enters round nine with a breakeven of 76.

Two gamers

Either my radar is broken or there are only six rookie-priced players on the verge of their first money-making round, and four of them – Sydney forward Trent Dennis-Lane, West Coast midfielder Koby Stevens, GWS ruckman Andrew Philips and North Melbourne midfielder Brad McKenzie – won’t interest Dream Teamers either because of their starting price, job security, points potential or, simply, because there is a better option in the same position. That leaves Brisbane mid-fwd Dayne Zorko, who should be making his way into your team this week if you didn’t take the punt last week, and aforementioned Adelaide ruckman Josh Jenkins. If you’re a tad GWS heavy and are trying to downgrade a few Giants to make the first multi-bye round easier to swallow, then neither Zorko or Jenkins are particularly helpful, with both sharing that round-11 break. Well, suck it up, because Zorko ($104,200) the 22-year-old winner of last year’s NEAFL best and fairest award, was a must-have before teammate Todd Banfield suffered an injury that looks set to keep him out for six weeks. Now he’s an, er, must must-have. After a sub-affected 26 in his first match, Zorko grabbed 96 points last week. Just bear in mind he won’t be part of many, if any, Lions wins as big as that this season, so an average of somewhere between 65 and 75 is probably a realistic expectation.

That’s what I did last week: Zorko in for long-time absentee Aaron Hall, of the Gold Coast, apparently. While there’s plenty more cash to be made from downgrading a Greene, Shiel or Smith, I wanted to have as many players on the park as possible during the bye rounds, so dumped Hall. In the same week, Hall pops up in the best players for the Suns’ NEAFL team, despite not registering a goal. I don’t think he’ll return this week, but certainly keep an eye on the teams tomorrow night.

Jenkins (also $104,200) has impressed in both his outings at AFL level, but was able to trouble the statisticians a little more in his second match, racking up 92 points against Carlton last week after scoring 54 against Geelong on debut. The ruck isn’t typically the most common line to wangle downgrades in, but some are considering ballsy moves like this one by RamboTambo below.

Giles’ performances this season have seen him elevated to keeper status by plenty of coaches, with his 84.75ppg average seeing him ranked equal 10th with Sam Jacobs in the ruck department, and only five points per game behind fourth-placed ruck Hamish McIntosh. While Jenkins has shown an ability to score highly, the fact that Giles is now the first-choice ruck at his club gives him a big advantage in the consistency stakes. Jenkins will ride the roller-coaster that comes with playing forward and pinch-hitting behind number-one ruck Jacobs. It could be a brilliant trade if it comes off, and will only take one trade to fix if it doesn’t, but I don’t have the guts to go through with it.

Similarly, I can’t bring myself to trade out Redden for Jenkins either, as it’ll net less than $50k and, depending on your team structure of course, isn’t likely to improve your doughnut-dodging chances in the multi-bye rounds. That might sound contradictory to my Zorko advice, but he’s a must-have, whereas Jenkins is a maybe. Better off hoping that big Jarrad gets another run during the MBRs, I reckon.

One gamers

I broke a golden of rule of Dream Team by bringing in a one-gamer last week, adding Zorko in a bid to avoid a forward-line doughnut. It worked out swimmingly and now I’ve got a hankering to do it again this week in order to afford an upgrade elsewhere. The trick is working out which one deserves a place in your line-up. It’s hard enough when they’ve played two games, let alone basing your decisions on a sample size of one.

Like the two-gamers, there are six rookie-priced players who played their first AFL game (of 2012, at least) in round eight, with Sydney forward Tommy Walsh the highest DT scorer of the group. The St Kilda reject scored 85 points against Melbourne but, like Zorko, won’t find the opposition as generous every week. The long-awaited debut of GWS back Sam Darley also eventuated in round eight, with the former North Hobart midfielder making a great first impression with 44 opening-half points before cooling to finish with 64 for the game. North Melbourne forward Ben Warren, a familiar face in these parts, scored a 60 on his return to the Kangaroos unit, while Gold Coast mid-fwd Alex Sexton, Western Bulldogs forward Zeph Skinner and GWS defender Matthew Buntine had their scores restricted by Reptile’s green vest. If you’re clever, you’ll wait another week before jumping on any of these blokes. If you’re not, like me, then it’s at least worth narrowing it down to Walsh, Darley and Sexton. The highly-rated Gold Coast youngster excites me the most, scoring 22 points when he got his chance in the final term, with all six of his disposals by foot. Great Dream Teaming, although I’m concerned about the number of games he’ll get due to his young age. Darley is the other I’m keen on, but would love to see both he and Bugg in the same team first – it didn’t happen in the pre-season.

Apologies for not getting to all the tweets (@ChookDT), or clucks as I like to call them, that people sent in, but I’ll endeavour to do a better job of it next week. And sorry for the lack of feedback from me in the comments during the day, but I spend Wednesdays running around at my day job like, well, me with my head cut off. Thanks for the comments, advice, etc, over the season so far!

Three-or-more gamers

Man, hang around a little longer

Did you hear about the long-time Man City fans who, having stuck by their often-beleaguered Blues/Citizens for the best part of 50 success-starved years, left the stadium in tears with just a few minutes remaining in the final game of the English Premier League season when it appeared that Manchester United would pinch the title, and as a result missed the club’s two injury-time goals and one of the most amazing comebacks in world sport?

As someone who sold Greater Western Sydney midfielder Stephen Coniglio two weeks ago, I feel their pain. I stuck with that bastard* through the bleak first five rounds of the season, but bailed out after he followed a week on the sidelines with a sub-affected 46. At that point, his round-three 73 was his highest score and, while he undoubtedly had some price rises left in him, it looked as if the dollars would be coming in dribs and drabs from here on in.

Instead, Salad Boy busts out a couple of humungous scores, re-igniting his cash flow and winning a Rising Star nomination in the process. Okay, so perhaps 44 years and five rounds isn’t exactly a fair comparison but, like those Man City supporters, I’m bawling my eyes out right now. Maybe that example is just a case of terrible Dream Teaming on my part (in my defence, I did have to start culling mids with round-11 byes, having five of them in Boyd, Thompson, Greene, Shiel and Cogs), but those who suffered a similar fate when they ditched Western Bulldogs forward Tory Dickson last week are genuinely unlucky.

The coaches who held Dickson through his first two paltry scores and extended spell in the reserves, only to finally lose faith last week and sideways trade him to another rookie, didn’t deserve to see him join Coniglio and GWS ruckman Jon Giles as the only century-makers in the rookie ranks. That’s just cruel.

Mr Ed and The Adams Family

Thankfully, most of those who did ditch Cogs or Dickson were rewarded by the players they brought in. While Gold Coast gun mid Kyal Horsley didn’t quite match Cogs or even his own first two efforts, his 95 was notable both for the fact that it suggested his scoring won’t be greatly diminished when Gary Ablett and Michael Rischitelli are in the Suns side, and according to FanFooty’s m0nty, who knows these sorts of things, it delivered us the greatest-ever single-round price increase ($96,000), beating the week Michael Barlow grew by $80,900.

For many coaches, Dickson became one of GWS mid-fwds Adam Treloar or Taylor Adams. After Horsley, these two were the week’s top earners, with Adams’ 72 in his third game seeing his price jump $60,300,whileTreloar’s 95 in his fourth game giving him a hike of $53,700.

Reptile strikes again

Popular defender Brandon Ellis was on the receiving end of a “run, block, run, block, block” fatality combo from Reptile in round seven, copping Richmond’s green vest for all but the final 10 minutes of its win against Sydney. Ellis scored just six points, making it the equal second-worst case of green vestage for a rookie this season, matching Sam Kerridge’s six in round three and only marginally better than Billie Smedts’ four in round five. Israel Folau scored just four points in round three as well but, unbelievably, he wasn’t a substitute in that game.

Anyway, back to Ellis. His abysmal score not only resulted in a loss of $21k this week, but bumps his breakeven up to 82. Add in the fact that he shares his bye round (13) with popular premiums like Brendon Goddard, Brett Deledio, Matt Suckling and Grant Birchall, and it’s clearly chopping block time. Personally, I’ll be trying to upgrade Ellis, rather than make a downgrade trade, but that’s not an option for some so here are the boys on the bubble…

Two gamers

Something for my broken back?

If not Ellis, then you might be looking to move on GWS defender Tommy Bugg, who’s scoring has dipped in recent weeks, with a view to avoiding an inevitable price drop soon or a doughnut in the first multi-bye round, round 11. In any case, defenders are definitely in vogue, and a cursory glance at the list of rooks who played their second game in round seven reveals a seemingly positive state of play – five of the eight are backmen! Scrape the surface, though, and it’s actually pretty effed up, especially if you’ve got the MBRs at the forefront of your thinking when making trades. It all depends on the structure of your team, of course, but a lot of teams are stacked with round 11 and round 13 backs, (think Bugg/Waters/Hargrave/etc for rd11, and Goddard/Deledio/Suckling/etc for rd13), pretty much ruling out downgrade trades to three of those five rookie defenders in Jacob Brennan (West Coast, rd11 bye), Cameron Delaney (North Melbourne, rd11 bye) and Beau Wilkes (St Kilda, rd13 bye). That leaves Fremantle’s Lee Spurr and Collingwood’s Peter Yagmoor, whose rd12 bye is likely to be less doughnut-inducing than the others. Of course, you need everyone playing in those multi-bye rounds to avoid zeroes, and the job security of both these blokes is questionable at best. The Magpies, in particular, are set to welcome back several players over the next few weeks. Spurr’s spot in the Fremantle side looks more solid, and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t get another go this week, but I’m less confident in predicting an extended run that sees him through the MBRs. Having said that, (I’m forever on the fence, if you hadn’t worked that out yet), there’s not much in the way of defender downgrades on the horizon (none of last week’s debutants were backmen, and North’s Will Sierakowski, named as an emergency last week, shares the rd11 bye), so Spurr looks to be your best bet. It’s just a bet with longish odds, is all.

One gamers

Dayne Train arrives early

Brisbane mid-fwd Dayne Zorko was the headline inclusion of last week’s first-timers, but donned the green vest against Collingwood, scoring 26 points from eight possessions when given his chance in the second half. I really wish coach Michael Voss had held him back until round nine, meaning he’d be ripe for the picking immediately after the Lions (and Giants) complete their bye in round 11. A couple of midfielders – West Coast’s Ryan Neates and North Melbourne’s Brad McKenzie – and a couple of rucks – Adelaide’s Josh Jenkins and GWS’s Andrew Phillips – rounded out the round-seven debutants, with all but Jenkins having their scoring stunted by Reptile. Yep, even Phillips copped a green vest, for those that dismissed the Sub Marine’s pick of a ruckman as a starting sub. Jenkins was reasonably impressive but, like Phillips, won’t help avoid a doughnut if you were thinking of taking him, Giles and another premium into the MBRs as part of a three-pronged ruck strategy, as they share the same bye as Giles. These byes are freakin’ ridiculous!

It looks like there’ll be a lot of Ellis-to-Spurr action this week. Are you going that way, or have you got something better in mind? Let me know in the comments or on twitter @ChookDT so I can copy your cunning plan. Cheers!

*Just posturing, Cogs. I can’t bring myself to hate you when I know you’re going to be a permanent fixture in my Dream Team campaigns from 2014 through to 2022.

For some, the last half an hour before lockout can be a time devoid of any rational thought. Amid the scrambling for late injury news and the finalisation of Sunday’s teams, the pressure to snag the perfect premium and ditch the correct dud, and to click the right captain and elect the most excellent emergencies, can cause the indecisive Dream Team coach to lose the plot, drop their bundle or go completely out of their F%*KING MIND!

I know, because I’m one of the worst. Last round, I had the big “C” resting on Matthew Boyd’s shoulders all week. I started tossing around the idea of captaining one of my other premium mids – Scott Pendlebury or Scott Thompson – on Friday afternoon, but then threw all reason (and research) out the window about 10 minutes before lockout and clicked the “C” under Greg Broughton’s name. Five league losses later, a couple of cartons of egg on my face and it’s fair to say that didn’t work out too well for me.

Whether it’s picking a captain, selecting the right premium upgrade or the best rookie downgrade, or deciding whether to trade at all, the sensible solution that you arrived at during the week dissolves as the combination of Friday afternoon beers and the lockout countdown timer kick in.

This week, though, those of us who suffer from this truly debilitating condition can at least rest easy with the decision on whether to downgrade to Gold Coast midfielder Kyal Horsley or not. There’ll be no will you or won’t you. You will. The only reason you won’t is if you bucked tradition and drafted in the Suns rookie last week. Even then, you’re probably looking for a bug in the Virtual Sports programming that allows you to double dip and get him in a second time. He’s simply that good. Who to trade out? Well, that’s another issue entirely…

Three-or-more gamers

For me, it’s between Melbourne midfielder James Magner and Greater Western Sydney midfielder Dylan Shiel to make way for Horsley, a scenario facing the majority of DT coaches reading this I reckon, with Shiel’s teammate Stephen Coniglio another likely on the chopping block. All have easily attainable breakevens (Magner 17, Shiel 8 and Coniglio 20), and would normally be left in the paddock for another couple of weeks while their prices bulge that little bit more. But you can’t wait another week for Horsley, unless you want to pay $80,000-$100,000 more than everyone else, so someone has to go. Base the decision on average alone and Magner, scoring at 79 points per game, is the one you hold over Shiel or Coniglio, with 66ppg apiece. But, take out Coniglio’s sub-affected score of 46 in round five, and you’ll see that the two GWS boys have been steadily increasing their output (Coniglio has gone 53, 60, 73, 97, and Shiel has notched 36, 58, 74, 67, 81, 80), while Magner has waned, scoring 48, 64, 86, and 66 in his past four after opening the season with back-to-back hundreds. The discerning coaches will be taking the byes into account, of course, and this is where it comes down to the individual structure of each team. If you’re already packing a bunch of midfielders with the round 11 bye, like Boyd, Rocky or Thommo, as well as the GWS kids, then I’d be looking to move on Shiel or Cogs. But Magner (round 12 bye) must go if you were ballsy enough to start with both Swan and Pendles, with some Jelwood or Stants on the side. For the best downgrade information regarding the Horse this week, check out Tbetta’s Bullets article from Monday.

Elsewhere in the three-or-more game bracket, Port Adelaide mid-fwd Darren Pfeiffer made an inglorious start to what could be a short-lived career as a cash cow, scoring just 26 points. That was the culmination of what must’ve been a see-sawing ride for his near-40,000 owners. Low – Pfeiffer is named on an extended interchange for Port Adelaide on Thursday, sparking fears he may be dropped before his first price rise. High – Pfeiffer survives the cut when emergencies are named on Friday! Low – Pfeiffer is Reptiled, receiving the green vest for the Power’s game against Richmond on Sunday. High – an early injury gives Pfeiffer the chance to play plenty of game time! Low – Pfeiffer disposes of the ball eight out of nine times by hand in a putrid display of DTing.

Faring only marginally better were popular picks Adam Kennedy (40), Brandon Ellis (50) and Billie Smedts, although the latter’s 50 was a monumental improvement on his 4 the previous week. Even thus-far reliable ruck Jon Giles had a forgettable round, scoring a season-low 59 – which was the total ruck contribution for coaches with Orren Stephenson, Jarrad Redden and, say, Aaron Sandilands/Ben McEvoy/Shane Mumford. Vent with RL Griffin’s Open Letter to Ruckmen here. Ellis and fellow Richmond defender Steven Morris will need to be cashed in sooner rather than later and, unless you’ve got seven premium defenders already, I’d be trying to upgrade them rather than downgrading – it’s slim pickings back there at the moment.

On the flip side, there were some solid rookie scores racked up in round six. And then there was Toby Greene. A massive 122 against Carlton saw the GWS mid’s price soar another $40k and garner a negative breakeven, ensuring the cash will continue to flow his way for a little longer yet. Not bad for a 13-year-old. In the same game, Blues defender Paul Bower pumped out 116 points the week that 1000 coaches dropped him from their teams. A kick short of a century, Stephen Coniglio and Devon Smith both enjoyed season-high scores (in fact, Coniglio was only just short of his previous top score by half-time, at which stage he’d compiled 67 points), while James McDonald continued to roll along with a not-to-be-sneered-at 92.

Bower wasn’t the only rookie-priced defender hauling in the points, with Marty Clark, Karmichael Hunt and Tom Gillies all nabbing 80s, while Tommy Bugg continued his roller-coaster ride of a season with his 68 following scores of 96, 66, 93, 57 and 97. (Thanks to @ryanthompson_5 for pointing out the pattern on Twitter.)

Two gamers

A total of 10 rookie-priced players turned out for their second game in round six but, honestly, only two of them are worthy of a spot in your DT. I guess if you were desperate to downgrade one of those defenders to someone with good job security, then you could pick up Collingwood’s Nathan Brown, but don’t expect better than the 40 points a game he’s plodding along at thus far, given his best career average to date his 40.5ppg.

No, the only two to be considered this week are Gold Coast midfielder Kyal Horsley and GWS mid-fwd Taylor Adams, and you don’t “consider” Horsley, you just do it. (Yes, he’ll cost a touch above the rookie base price, and Risca and Ablett will impact his scoing on their return, but, like an 11-year-old private school girl, you don’t want to be the only kid in the playground without a Horse). That leaves Adams, who, like Adam Treloar before him, faces certain challenges to being a “sure thing”. His coach, Kevin Sheedy, is the main one. You don’t get born after 1990 and expect to avoid a rest if you’re playing under Sheeds this year. Hell, Treloar got one after just three games, although he was, admittedly, on the comeback trail from injury. If you’re willing to cop the odd AWOL week from Adams, including the round 11 bye that he shares with the rest of his GWS teammates, then a 71 and 91 from his first two suggests you’ll make a decent dollar out of this one. I suspect that being restricted to two trades a week will mean most miss out on Adams, however, with plenty of teams packing a Horsley-plus-upgrade-trade combo this week

One gamers

The flood of fresh meat (don’t picture it) is certainly starting to slow, with six NKOTB in round six. No one will be surprised to know that Greater Western Sydney handed out another debut, but midfielder Liam Sumner, who scored 64 against Carlton, will be hard to consider as a downgrade target due to his price ($139k) and bye week. Price ($177k) also stunts St Kilda forward Aaron Siposs’ chances of cracking more than a couple of Dream Teams, while backline trio Jacob Brennan (West Coast), Josh Bootsma (Carlton) and Lee Spurr (Fremantle) don’t boast strong enough job security to be genuine targets at this point, despite the real need for some in defence. Spurr, possibly, could have potential, as could St Kilda defender Beau Wilkes, although he was a late withdrawal from the Hawthorn match, making way for first-gamer Ahmed Saad, who started as the sub.

Right then, who wants to hear my captaincy tips for the weekend? Nope, no one? Okay, hang about for a bit and Calvin will be along with his world-famous advice. Bet I cop hiding. Follow on Twitter: @ChookDT

In round five, Geelong def-fwd Billie Smedts was the worst hit by Reptile, scoring just four points once he shed the green vest. Other popular picks to have their scoring slashed by the vest included Fremantle mifielder Lachie Neale, Richmond defender Brandon Ellis and and St Kilda defender Beau Wilkes. Among others to be either “Sektored” or “Reptiled” (it’s not going to catch on, is it?) were Kirk Ugle, Aaron Young, Paul Seedsman and Cory Dell’olio.

Anyway, a few of our kids managed to avoid the vest and churn out some decent numbers (although the round’s only rookie hundred belonged to a first gamer), so let’s do a review thingy. Of the round. Now.

Three-or-more gamers

I keep the rooks who’ve played three-or-more games apart from those who haven’t to make it easier to identify when it’s time to offload these cows – the time they reach the red zone, when their breakeven starts to approach or exceed their average. I’d love to report that there’s plenty of cash left in all of our rooks, but the truth is that some are ready for the chop. The week’s biggest breakeven belongs to St Kilda forward Rhys Stanley, who needs 62 to avoid a drop, but the big fella has shown that’s well within his reach with scores of 98 and 88 already this year so we turn the blowtorch instead on Greater Western Sydney mid-fwd Devon Smith. Some solid scores over the first four rounds have seen Smith double in price from his initial cost of $120k, but a sub-affected 39 against the Western Bulldogs now gives him a new breakeven of 52. Personally, I’m backing him to beat that and continue making us some cash. I’m hoping, too, that coach Kevin Sheedy and co count his half a game on the weekend as a rest and he gets to skip a visit from General Soreness. We’ll find out on Thursday night, I guess. If there’s a forward or mid that’s about to skyrocket and you don’t want to miss out on them, then Smith may well be the one you sacrifice, but I’d be holding on to him if that isn’t the case.

Port Adelaide midfielder Chad Wingard managed to avoid a vest for a change, but still struggled to make an impact on the DT scoreboard, registering 48 points in the Showdown loss. A new BE of 39 puts him dangerously close to a price plateau, given he’s averaged 40 over the start of the season. The kid does have class, though, and looks capable of busting out a big score at some stage – here’s hoping it’s not the week you offload him. I’ve heard rumours of a shoulder injury, so keep an eye on that, Wingard coaches. The aforementioned Smedts is the other who’s close to leaking cash. His round-five score of four is a real kick in the teeth to those coaches who waited a couple of weeks for him to finally play his all-important third game – the one where you’re supposed to rise, like, a kazillion dollars (see James McDonald/Adam Treloar this week) – but instead saw a slight increase of $9,100 and a new BE of 34. Three more popular picks who saw their BE rise big-time in round five were Stephen Coniglio, whose knock to the head and subsequent subbing resulted in a lowly score of 46, Collingwood defender Marty Clarke, who scored 45 in a shut-down role, and Richmond defender Steve Morris, who managed 48 points, only one more than teammate Brandon Ellis despite the latter playing significantly less time on ground due to being subbed off. The new BEs for these three, each with more than 50,000 owners, are 23 for Coniglio, 26 for Clarke and 21 for Morris.

That’s the bad and the ugly. The good was all orange and charcoal, with GWS occupying the top five slots in this bracket for round five. Defender Tommy Bugg was the top scorer with 96 and, like Danny Stanley last year, looms as a potential keeper this season, averaging just over 80 points. Second was yo-yo forward Jeremy Cameron, whose record this season reads 39, 80, 19, dnp, 92. That’s young key position players for ya. Midfield duo Toby Greene and James McDonald both had 90s – Greene in his return from a week’s rest and McDonald in his first money-making game, netting owners a cool $84,400. Such has been his scoring power, McDonald has retained a better breakeven (-57) than any of the two-gamers, bar Brisbane midfielder Jack Crisp (who’s on -61, but more on him later). Dependable ruckman Jon Giles rounded out the top five with an 89-point haul, taking his season average to 89. Melbourne midfielder James Magner (86), GWS mid Dylan Shiel (82), Gold Coast defender Karmichael Hunt (63) and GWS mid-fwd and popular downgrade target Adam Treloar (63) were the other notable scorers from this group in round five.

Two gamers

Port Adelaide journeyman Darren Pfeiffer (75 and 50, breakeven -51) boasts the highest average of the two-game group, and will no doubt tempt those who skipped fellow mid-fwd Adam Treloar last week, with his round 13 bye an important point of difference between himself and the GWS boys. A starting price of $117,800 is a little off-putting, but the biggest concern is whether he’ll be getting a third game this week. His performance in the Showdown wasn’t overly impressive, and the majority of Port fans I’ve trolled on the internerds don’t want to see him in the team to take on Richmond in round six. (They are keen to see ruckman Jarrad Redden back in though!) Job security, it seems, is a real worry for Pfeiffer. Brisbane midfielder Jack Crisp ($85,800) has done only marginally worse than Pfeiffer in the scoring department (67 and 49), and his job security looks a little better, with the chance that he’ll assume Andrew Raines’ tagging role while he’s suspended this week. If I had a midfield rookie screaming out for a downgrade, I’d consider him, but I don’t, so I won’t. However… another midfielder on the verge of their first price rise is Geelong’s Jesse Stringer ($104,200), who scored 77 points in round five on the back of 10 tackles in the wet at the Gabba. His first-up score of 37 doesn’t look overly impressive, unless you recall that he was Reptiled in that match, (green vested, if you’ve forgotten already) and didn’t get on to the ground until the fourth quarter. You have to wonder whether Stringer will get a decent run of games to work as a cash cow – he’s now the fourth Cat with two games’ experience this season alongside Gillies, Horlin-Smith and Stephenson, which suggests a fair bit of rotation for the reigning premier’s fringe players – but it could be a risk that pays off handsomely. Essendon forward Cory Dell’olio got his chance due to the Bombers’ piled-up injury list, meaning his stay in the senior side could well depend on how quickly his teammates heal. He started as the sub against Collingwood, but got a fair chunk of game time after Michael Hibberd went down in the first quarter, finishing with 35 points. I’m not keen on two-game defenders Shaun Edwards (GWS) or Mark Austin (Bulldogs), but Fremantle midfielder Lachie Neale ($98,700) is one to consider. His scores have been decimated by vests, grabbing just 17 and 26 in the past two games, meaning it’s possible to window shop him for another week before buying. If he scores 50 he’ll only rise about $10k, while an $80 would see him go up about $25k. Yet another appearance as the substitute would be enough to turn me off the youngster, I’d reckon.

One gamers

There were some familiar faces in the 10 rookie-priced players that debuted in round five, with Collingwood defender Nathan Brown, St Kilda defender Beau Wilkes and Gold Coast forward Charlie Dixon getting their first run of 2012, but the debutant of most interest wasn’t one with AFL experience. Gold Coast midfielder Kyal Horsely was huge in his first game, scoring the only rookie hundred of the round with a 101 from 19 disposals and eight tackles. Elevated from the rookie list last week for Jarrod Harbrow, it’ll be interesting to see how (or if) Horsely operates with Gary Ablett back in the side, but we’ve got at least another week before we’re faced with that scenario, so here’s hoping for another monster score this week. Elsewhere, look out for Brisbane ruckman Billy Longer to get his second game as the Lions do battle with Essendon’s ruck combo.

Follow on Twitter: @ChookDT. I’ll be keeping an eye out for #reptiled and #sektored to start trending over the weekend. About as likely as my DT cracking 2000 points and my Demons getting their first win. ;)

I’m sure this is the first time Greater Western Sydney rookie Adam Treloar has heard this, being the super stud he is, but cobber: you’ve come too early. A fantastic downgrade target who ticks the key boxes of scoring potential, job security and dual-positionality, Treloar would be drafted into just about every team in the country if his debut had been delayed by a few weeks. By then, the likes of Melbourne midfielder James Magner and fellow Giants Stephen Coniglio, Dylan Shiel and Toby Greene would’ve made enough cash that coaches would be champing at the bit to give them the chop. Now, though, they’re faced with the difficult decision of culling a cow before their time, or missing out on Treloar (and fellow bubble “boy” James McDonald) altogether.

Three-or-more gamers

We shouldn’t really be blaming Treloar, of course. The omission of Greene and the late withdrawal of Coniglio this week denied them the chance to add a few extra dollars to their already hefty increases. A good performance by either against Adelaide on Saturday might’ve fattened them up enough that some coaches would’ve been happy to take their cash and run. Magner played, but a role switch to specialist tagger saw him transform from a ball-winner to a bald loser. Okay, that’s way too harsh – on all fronts – but there’s no doubting his defensive job on Western Bulldogs captain Matthew Boyd, which resulted in him netting just 64 points, was worrying for the fact that it lowers his scoring potential significantly. It was as if coach Mark Neeld hadn’t played with Magnets before and wanted to see what happens when you turn them in the other direction. They repel, Mark. Put it back the way you found it, please champ.  A horror schedule for the Demons over the next seven rounds looks like it could do more to hinder than help Magner, too. There’s still plenty of cash to be made from these boys, of course – Magner will continue making money as soon as he passes 22 points against St Kilda on Saturday, while Coniglio and Greene still boast negative breakevens (-4 and -32 respectively).

GWS ruckman Jon Giles was the highest scoring rookie of the three-or-more gamers, grabbing his second hundred this season with 101 points against Adelaide. It proved a timely ton for those coaches missing their Mummy yet again, but round four really belonged to the cheap backs, with defenders occupying four of the top six (and nine of the top 20) scoring slots this week. After Giles came Marty Clarke (95) and Brandon Ellis (79), with Cam Guthrie (72) and – who woulda thunk it – Karmichael Hunt (70) next best after forward Aaron Hall’s 75.

No worries about cash flow for that lot, then, with shiny new breakevens all around, but there’s trouble ahead for some others, like vest-collector Chad Wingard, of Port Adelaide, whose 20 points in round four resulted in a $4500 drop and a BE in the 40s. Starting as the sub also wreaked the scores of GWS back Jacob Townsend and St Kilda forward Jamie Cripps, but the DT drought that’ll have affected the biggest slice of DT players was that being suffered by GWS mid-fwd Adam Kennedy, who’s owned by more than 120,000 coaches. Kennedy has been shedding points ever since his opening-round 116, and managed just 41 this week. It could have been worse – he scored 18 points in the final term to flesh out another underwhelming performance. As Tbetta notes in his must-read Bullets, his role has been largely unchanged, with his spiralling scores being more as a result of GWS experimenting with its game plan. He’s the 10^th most traded-out player this week, but I’ll be resisting the temptation from Treloar (until pre-lockout panic hits and I do another of my frenzied last-second trades, at least). The inconsistency Kennedy showed across four quarters is nothing new, of course, with popular GWS back Tommy Bugg falling foul of that this week, charging to 52 points at half-time before fading badly to finish with just 62 for the game. Teammate Devon Smith went the other way, crawling to 15 by the main break before busting out a half-century in the final two quarters.

Two gamers

If you’re not The X Factor and don’t happen to own both Adam Treloar and James McDonald, then this is the week to pick up one or both of the GWS pair if you plan on doing so at any stage this season. I’ve mentioned already that Treloar ($104,200, mid-fwd) is a super downgrade target, having chalked up a 66 and 85 in his two games to date. He just outpointed midfielder McDonald in the Adelaide match, although the farmer’s pre-ban 98 in round one and slightly lower starting price ($98,700) means he takes a higher BE into the Giants’ next match (Treloar is at -85 compared to McDonald’s -119). Put the BEs aside when deciding who to downgrade to, though, as your predictions of who has the greater scoring power and who’ll feature in the most games in the short-to-medium term should carry more weight than the $20-30k difference in their first price rise. For me, Treloar’s DPP status makes him more appealing to my current structure, having lost the link when I sold Western Bulldogs forward Tory Dickson for Greene.

As I said earlier, though, to downgrade you must first ditch someone else, and none of my cash cows look nearly plump enough just yet. That certainly rules the other two gamers out of consideration, as there’s no chance I’m sending Kennedy, Smith or Shiel off to the slaughterhouse in order to bring in either of Geelong duo Tom Gillies ($138,500, defender, 55 and 49 points) or George Horlin-Smith ($104,200, forward, 58, 40), even if The Hyphen’s second game was cut short by a red vest. At least they still have negative BEs. Gold Coast forward Sam Day is likely to leak – that’s right – leak cash at his first price change, with an average of 25 from his two games and a current breakeven of 50 courtesy of a $150k starting price.

Others who’ve played two games but didn’t feature in round four include Billie Smedts, Orren Stephenson, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Dom Tyson, Nathan Wilson, Broc McCauley and Tory Dickson.

One gamers

Those passing on Treloar/McDonald will no doubt take plenty of interest in how Port Adelaide’s mature recuit Darren Pfeiffer fares in his second game, after the $117,800 mid-fwd notched an admirable 76 points against Collingwood on Saturday. Job security was one of the major concerns for Michelle in the pre-season, and the horrific injury to teammate Robbie Gray goes some way to easing that.

Nine other rookie-priced players entered the AFL fray for the first time in 2012 this week, with two midfielders – the Giants’ Anthony Miles and Fremantle’s Lachie Neale – the most fantasy relevant. Miles ($104,200, 89 points) is yet another prolific ball-winner nabbed by the GWS recruiters, while Neale ($98,700, 17 points) seems to be a favourite of new Dockers coach Ross Lyon who was slated for a round-one bow before an ankle injury set him back. Don’t be too deterred by Neale’s measly output – it’s all the green vest’s doing. Like Adelaide mid-fwd Sam Kerridge before him, Neale might be able to get three games under his belt before we are forced to pick him following that price-stunting first score. The other players getting the red P plates from m0nty this weekend will be Brisbane centre Jack Crisp ($85,800, 67), Adelaide defender Sam Shaw ($104,200, 59), Essendon forward Cory Dell’olio ($85,800, 43), former Carlton and current Bulldogs defender Mark Austin ($162,200, 41), Geelong mid Jesse Stringer ($104,200, 37), and GWS defender Shaun Edwards ($104,200, 24) and Hawthorn mid Brad Hill ($98,700, 9).

Are you bringing in Treloar or McDonald this week, or will is it a classic case of premature, er, downgrading? Let us know in the comments or on twitter (@ChookDT). Closing in on the 1000 followers, by the way. Being my 1000^th probably won’t mean much to you, but it sure would make my nan proud. Twitter fiend, that lady.

After two rookie-priced hundreds in round one and three in round two, it’d have been nice if the pattern continued in this all-important round three and we saw Greater Western Sydney pair Toby Greene and Jon Giles, and Melbourne midfielder James Magner joined by a fourth young centurion. No such luck, though, with not a single rookie-priced player raising the bat in the round three. Last week’s poster boys – Greene and Magner – were particularly disappointing, halving their round-two scores with 54 and 48 respectively.

This time last week I asked that we don’t anoint Magner the next Michael Barlow yet, because the original story had a sad ending – a season-ending leg break. The similarities have continued thus far, however, with Barlow also following his two first-up hundreds in 2010 with a mediocre 46 (against Geelong). He bounced back with a 78 against another strong outfit in St Kilda, before returning to his ton-scoring ways with hundreds in his next two matches. I’m more confident of Magner following that form line than Greene, given that Magner has much better job security (he wasn’t alone in being anonymous against Richmond plus he’d have banked some credits from his first two weeks and coach Mark Neeld has this week expressed his desire for some continuity in team selection). Greene’s spot in the team could come under threat as soon as this week, however, with James McDonald set to return after serving his two-game suspension.

Regardless of their less-than-spectacular returns in round three, Magner and Greene were still among the top-five earners in the rookie ranks this week. Magner took top spot with an $80,000+ increase, while Greene ($68,900) was just behind teammates Tommy Bugg (def, $71,800) and Adam Kennedy (mid/fwd, $71,400), courtesy of his higher starting price. There’s still plenty of money to be made from this pair, of course, with Magner boasting a breakeven (BE) of -47, the second-lowest of any three-game player, and Greene on -30.

Giles (-50) has the best breakeven of any three gamer going into round four, despite registering his lowest score in round three with a 65, with teammate Devon Smith (mid-fwd) and Richmond back Steve Morris not far behind with -43s. Smith scored 87 in round three to be the third-highest scorer in the rookie ranks and is proving more consistent (69 in rd1, 72 in rd2) than fellow mid-fwd Adam Kennedy (116, 72, 58). The highest score went to GWS defender Tommy Bugg with a 93, but he may well have been consigned to the bench after his 53 last week and the fact that he was up against West Coast while other popular backs Morris and teammate Brandon Ellis took on the lowly Demons. St Kilda forward Rhys Stanley was the second-best scorer, backing up last week’s 98 with an 88 this week.

At the other end of the scale, form, injury, vestage, a high starting price or a game clearly unsuited to DT has put some rookies precariously close to a cash drop this week. In fact, we’ve already had one bargain-basement boy pop his reverse lights on and start to head backwards already. GWS forward Israel Folau dropped almost $10k from his starting price of $115k after scores of 28, 22 and 4. Ouch. Others in danger of following the NRL recruit down that dastardly path are fellow League convert Karmichael Hunt (avg 42, BE 42), Freo forward Josh Mellington (avg 38, BE 44), St Kilda forward Jamie Cripps (avg 40, BE 45).

Two gamers

 Eleven rookie-priced players have played two games, putting themselves in position for their first price rise, although only three of them played in round three – Geelong ruckman Orren Stephenson (77 points, BE -33), St Kilda midfielder Jack Newnes (61, -31) and GWS def-fwd Adam Tomlinson (70, -28). They’re all in line for handsome price rises if they get another game, then. A couple of other def-fwds, Geelong’s Billie Smedts and Collingwood’s Jackson Paine, should jump up about $20k when they get their next game, with only small increases predicted for the likes of Nathan Wilson, Tory Dickson, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Broc McCauley and Paul Seedsman when they force a third game, while Dom Tyson looks set to drop with a BE of 71, having averaged 21 in his two sub-affected outings thus far.

One gamers

Seven players debuted (for 2012 at least) in round three, including a couple of mid-fwds who could prove to be popular picks this season. If you gave up your midfield-forward link last week to swap Tory Dickson for Toby Greene, or are doing it this week to dump Nathan Fyfe for a premium midfielder, then you’ll be watching Adam Treloar (GWS) and Sam Kerridge (Adel) with plenty of interest as a downgrade trade to either in the midfield could re-open that mid-fwd door. Treloar had 66 points in his first taste of AFL action, while Kerridge – who showed plenty during the pre-season – managed just three handballs against Hawthorn after coming on as the sub in the third quarter. Gold Coast forward Sam Day also copped a sub’s vest, nabbing just 13 points as a result. The Cats handed debuts to forward George Horlin-Smith and defender Tom Gillies in the loss to North Melbourne, with both players returning scores in the 50s. It should be noted that Horlin-Smith’s score came from half a game after he started as the sub. Also in the 50s was Brisbane ruckman Billy Longer, but the best first-gamer of the round was West Coast midfielder Koby Stevens. Like Gillies and Day, Stevens has turned out at the top level in previous seasons, but received a rookie price this year. He opened his 2012 campaign with an 83, but it’s worth remembering that came against the Giants. Monitor again this week before jumping on board.

Downgrading already? Sideswaysing a rookie? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter @ChookDT.

Magner-ficient

Amid the canings and controversies at Melbourne, midfield recruit James Magner ($85,800) has made a blistering start to his AFL, and Dream Team, career. Two hundreds from two outings has him rarefied company, but please don’t call him the new Michael Barlow. Firstly, not taking anything away from Magner, but when Barlow got started in 2010, he did so with a couple of 120s, not straight centuries. Secondly, the last player to win comparisons to Barlow – Carlton midfielder Ed Curnow after a fast start last year – then sustained a long-term injury that saw him dumped from all our teams. Let’s not put that on the Magnet. He’s shown us his immense scoring potential and he’s got rock-solid job security so, quite simply, if you haven’t got him yet then don’t be stubborn and do it now. You won’t see a better breakeven this year than his -153.

Rub of the Greene

Most respectable coaches will already have Magner chained to their midfield six, but far fewer are lucky enough to have Greater Western Sydney midfielder Toby Greene ($134,700). His 103-point average over the first two games has got coaches scrambling to get him in before a likely pay day of about $40k-$60k this weekend, with the most popular moves seemingly a straight midfield swap for as-yet-underperforming teammate Stephen Coniglio ($175,200), which also yields about $40k change, or utilising a dual-position link in the midfield to ship Western Bulldogs forward Tory Dickson ($98,700). Either trade looks appealing, but should be treated cautiously, with fantasy heavyweight Warnie having questioned whether Greene can maintain a higher average than Cogs over the long-term, and GWS expert RL Griffin signalling that his job security could be doubtful as the Giants look to make room for the likes of Brogan, McDonald, O’Hailpin and others. Personally, I feel like I’ve got too many injury/form/positional concerns in other areas of my team to make the “luxury” trade of bringing in Greene, although I’ll certainly consider it if Mumford and Duffield get the all clear.

The rest of the two gamers

St Kilda forward Terry Milera ($115,800) is attracting plenty of attention, especially from those who have already got GWS mid-fwd Adam Kennedy ($104,200) or those that are sick of the sight of Aaron Hall ($98,700) or Dickson’s sub-affected or just-plain-crappy scores. An 85 against the Gold Coast on Sunday bumped Milera’s average up to 79.5, placing him seventh behind Magner, the GWS quartet of Greene, James McDonald, Kennedy and Jon Giles, and Saints teammate and fellow forward Rhys Stanley ($164,200). He could continue that average for the remainder of the season, but it’s not very likely, given the defensive frailties of the two sides he’s played thus far in Port Adelaide and the Suns, and the fact that he might be squeezed out by the likes of Adam Schneider and Jason Gram in the coming weeks. I won’t mention GWS pair Giles ($117,800, ruck) or Tommy Bugg ($104,200, defender) as everyone already has them, making the next most fantasy relevant player Western Bulldogs midfielder Clay Smith ($107,700). The excitement around Smith died down this week after he failed to back up his scintillating debut. He wasn’t terrible – far from it – but was certainly a lot quieter in round two, notching 53 points before donning his second red vest of the season in the Bulldogs’ Saturday night loss to Adelaide. Listed as needing a test for an ankle injury this week, Smith will struggle to win over those coaches now eyeing off Greene, but could well finish the season as the better buy.

One gamers

After being a late withdrawal from St Kilda’s round-one loss, Saints midfielder Tom Ledger ($163,200) started as the sub against the Gold Coast and chalked up 33 points. Not a great return so far if you took a punt on him from the start, although he could yet prove to be a solid scorer once he dumps the vest. Fellow Saints mid Jack Newnes ($98,700) played his first match of the year in the round-two thumping of the Suns, but doesn’t look fantasy relevant at this stage with just 36 points. The round’s other first gamer was North Melbourne defender Cameron Delaney ($104,200), who scored 58 on debut, but will want to improve his kick-to-handball ratio if he’s going to tempt DT coaches, with just six of his 19 touches against GWS by foot.

Who have you got your eye on in this all-important first week of price changes? Dumping any underperforming rooks? Let everyone know in the comments, or on twitter @ChookDT.

Pity, then, that we have to wait until the third round until we get to see some price rises and, even sadder than that, some rookies won’t be generating more than spare change unless they improve on a woeful round one. It’s not unusual to cop the odd dud score from this crowd – rookies are notoriously inconsistent – but there were some popular picks at the impotent end of the scale. Sixty-six points would’ve been a handy return for Richmond defender Brandon Ellis or teammate Steven Morris, but individually, not as a combined total. Western Bulldogs forward Tory Dickson couldn’t muster more than 37 points, a performance made to look even more miserly when compared with the outstanding DT debut by midfield teammate Clay Smith. Geelong ruckman Orren Stephenson might be one of the AFL oldest-ever draftees, but even he should be able to outscore his age. He didn’t on Saturday night, though, collecting just 22 points before being subbed out.

It’s not all doom and gloom, however, with the aforementioned Smith and Melbourne midfielder James Magner delivering on their pre-season hype with some big first-up scores.

For the uninitiated, the Chook’s Rooks format for the past four or five years is to monitor the progress of our three-or-more gamers in order to sell them off at their highest price, to highlight the crucial two-gamers before their first price rise and, lastly, recognise the one-gamers after their first appearance at AFL level. We’ll return to that arrangement next week, (well, for the one and two-gamers, at least), but no one’s changing price just yet so there’s little else to do but to head around the grounds for a quick round-one review…

GWS v Sydney

This one got the full rundown last week, but it’s worth mentioning, now that the other rookies have had a turn, that Tommy Bugg not only ended the round as the top-scoring rookie defender, but as one of the top-scoring defenders across all price brackets. His 97-point haul beat long-time demi-god of the defence Brendon Goddard and was bettered by only Brisbane pair Jed Adcock and Pearce Hanley, Hawks duo Grant Birchall and Matt Suckling, and Carlton’s Andrew Carrazzo.

Bugg wasn’t alone in his first-round heroics, with seven of the top 10 scores by rookie-priced players being produced by blokes wearing the orange and charcoal. If you remember, fwd-mid Adam Kennedy topped the charts with his big-time 116, no doubt tempting those who left him out of their initial squads to burn their first trade of the season. Wait, if you can, until he’s played his second game. It’s, like, a golden rule of DT, or something.

Richmond v Carlton

A decent game of footy was ruined for those who fielded one of Richmond pair Steven Morris (27 points) or Brandon Ellis (39) on the ground, especially if you had Bugg riding the pine. Both avoided the vest to finish with nine touches and two tackles apiece, with Morris condemned to a far lower score by his horrible kick-to-handball ratio of 1:8. In comparison, Ellis kicked it six times.

Hawthorn v Collingwood

Another cracker of a game, but not from a DT perspective, with Hawthorn blooding the best of their youth last year, and Collingwood only playing kids to plug injury-enforced holes in their defence. The Pies are expected to get back a few best-22 players this week, meaning we might not see Jackson Paine (40) and substitute pair Peter Yagmoor (8) and Paul Seedsman (17) for some time now. While not like-for-like replacements, the Hawks will soon need to find room for fit-again forward Jarryd Roughead and midfield hard-nut Liam Shiels, meaning debutant defender Jarrad Boumann (18) might make way after copping the red vest on Friday night.

Melbourne v Brisbane

Melbourne midfielder James Magner got his own minute’s applause when he started his DT career with a bang – goaling with his first kick in the AFL and then getting a gimme seconds later following a wrestle with Pearce Hanley. He finished with 103 points, but possibly an injury too following a tackle from Mitch Golby. I haven’t heard anything official (although he’s tweeted that “the ankle feels fine”), so here’s hoping he’s okay, as I imagine he’s among the four players that coach Mark Neeld thought broke even against the Lions. A big shake-up is promised ahead of the West Coast game, opening the door for mid-fwd Tom Couch to make his debut. Defender Josh Tynan has already had that honour, though he was far less prolific than Magner, scoring 46 points.

The Lions had about plenty of players priced in the $200k-$300k bracket, but none under the rookie cut-off (Jon Patton’s $179,700).

Gold Coast v Adelaide

Mature-age Gold Coast recruit Aaron Hall features in plenty of forward lines this year and didn’t disappoint greatly with a 55. There’s certainly scope for improvement, though, with 10 of his 17 touches by hand and no goals amongst his seven kicks.

North Melbourne v Essendon

Not a rookie-priced player to be seen here.

Fremantle v Geelong

I’d have put money on Ellis and, to a lesser extent, Morris, outscoring Billie Smedts, but the Geelong def-fwd managed a half-century, easily eclipsing the Tiger duo. Fellow rookie-priced Cat, defender Cam Guthrie, had seven tackles to push his score up to 61.

Western Bulldogs v West Coast

After Magner went big on Saturday, Western Bulldogs midfielder Clay Smith rightly realised he’d have to pull out something special to lure coaches away from the Melbourne ball-magnet. He succeeded, chalking up 79 points in three quarters but ran himself into the ground doing so, needing to be substituted before the fourth term. Dickson, as mentioned above, fared less well, crawling to 37 points.

Port Adelaide v St Kilda

Port Adelaide mid-fwd Darren Pfeiffer missed the cut when the extended bench was reduced to four players, and St Kilda midfielder Tom Ledger was a late withdrawal, but we still had a couple of Power rookies in midfielder Chad Wingard and ruckman Jarrad Redden to keep an eye on, as well as Saints first-gamer Terry Milera and fellow forward (for DT purposes) Jamie Cripps. Redden and Milera scored strongest, with 68 and 74 points respectively. The red vest stopped Redden in his tracks, as it did to Cripps, who snagged 48 points before being subbed in the third term. Wingard couldn’t use a vest as an excuse; he simply didn’t have a huge impact en route to 50 points.

A “proper” Chook’s Rooks next week with breakevens and everything! Follow me on twitter @ChookDT.

Locked in (or out) last week

Overall, our GWS rookies made a pretty spectacular start to their Dream Team careers, with one hundred, three 90s and a further five players with 70 or more. Mid-forward Adam Kennedy was the highest scorer, registering 116 points from a healthy kick-handball ratio of 17-11 and, importantly, 11 marks. Pre-lockout, Kennedy had been vying for my eighth midfield spot with James McDonald and got the nod based on his dual-position status, but you wouldn’t have been unhappy with the old farmer, who knocked out a near-ton with 98. Unfortunately, he also nearly knocked out popular mid-pricer Luke Parker with a high hit, breaking the Swan youngsters jaw and drawing a two-week penalty from the tribunal. If your major pre-lockout decision was McDonald or Stephen Coniglio, then the latter, at about $70k more, looked to be the wrong choice based on the Sydney game, scoring almost half as much as the former. I wouldn’t write Coniglio off yet, though, as he played with plenty of poise, suggesting strong job security and, surely, some solid scores in the near future.

Solid scores is what we can also expect from fellow midfielder Dyl Shiel, although not in the first match given his lack of match preparation. He started brilliantly, picking up 20 points in the first 18 minutes, but trailed off before being stranded on 36 points when handed the red vest. Taking his place on the field was Calvin’s correct guess at the starting sub, Dom Tyson, whose vest-affected score of 25 – combined with his high price of $170k – would’ve seen him drop a few dollars if the prices changed after just one round. Luckily for owners of the high draft pick, that 25 will only count towards one price fluctuation and, given the rotation policy in place at Blacktown, Tyson should get the chance to share the vest around. And Tyson wasn’t the lowest scorer on the ground on Saturday night. As forecast, Sydney rookie and GWS discard Harry Cunningham copped the vest for the Swans, restricting him to a 19-point cameo.

In the ruck, Jon Giles refused to be bullied by Sydney behemoth Shane Mumford and finished fast to record 77 DTs. It was a good enough result to give me the confidence to forge ahead with the much-discussed one premium/three rookie ruck structure, assuming that at least two of Orren Stephenson, Jarrad Redden and Billy Longer are named tomorrow night. The big-bodied ruckman are the ones that’ll worry Giles the most (even see him sidelined some weeks, I reckon, with Sheedy opting for Brogan instead), so a decent score against Mumford hints to some solid output against some of the less brawny big blokes.

Tommy Bugg justified his selection as the most popular rookie-priced defender in Dream Team with a first-up 97, forcing a lot of coaches to consider picking a non-starter this week to get their grubby hands on his score if they picked him as an emergency. Nathan Bock looks to be the best option, but only if you were totally sold on the former Adelaide backman’s potential before Bugg went ballistic. I’m in the Bugg emergency camp, but will be picking seven on-field backs who are playing this week and be happy enough that Bugg’s century will count towards his first price rise down the track. I’m far less happy that, despite having Bugg cemented in my D7 spot all pre-season, I switched him to the bench just 90 seconds before lock-out and, inexplicably, put teammate Jacob Townsend on in his place, hoping for a differential to the masses, I guess. Townsend had only just joined my team in place of Sam Darley after I failed to confirm whether Darley had hurt himself in the Giants’ reserves game that afternoon. (You’re in as soon as you’re on the verge of your third game, Sam, I promise). Anyway, it didn’t look to be a terrible move about two minutes before half-time when hard-nut Townsend led Bugg 34-32, but then Townsend was somehow penalised with a free kick against as Kieren Jack drove his knee into his head, leaving him trailing Bugg 31-32 and with a gash above his temple. Bugg went on, of course, to record 65 points in the second half, including a monster third term, while Townsend managed to add only eight to his total. I’m not devastated with the Townsend pick, though, as it looks like they’ll get a few games into the boy and his first half showed his scoring won’t always be so depressing. Bugg, if he can avoid full-body cramps in the future, looks to be a beauty!

This week

Well, let’s see what happens at the selection tables of the 16 AFL clubs yet to get their seasons underway. The absence of Melbourne midfielder James Magner, Western Bulldogs pair Clay Smith (mid) and Tory Dickson (fwd), and Richmond defenders Brandon Ellis and Steven Morris from their respective VFL affiliates bodes well for their chances of making AFL debuts in round one. We’ll know for sure tomorrow if Magner has recovered sufficiently from his finger injury to take his place in the Demons team, while the Eliis-Morris news will arrive as smartly as this afternoon. Smith and Dickson gets a lot trickier, as the Bulldogs don’t play until Sunday, meaning we won’t have their final teams until shortly before lockout on Friday. In fact, Sunday’s games include a few rookies we’d like some guarantees about that, unfortunately, we might not receive. Darren Pfeiffer (mid-fwd) and Chad Wingard (mid) may or may not be in the Port Adelaide team that takes on St Kilda on Sunday, while Koby Stevens (mid) and Gerrick Weedon (fwd) are in the hunt at West Coast given its injury toll. A few other names to look out for on teamsheets tomorrow are Aaron Hall (Gold Coast forward), Lachie Neale (Fremantle mid), Billie Smedts (Geelong def-fwd), Cam Guthrie (Geelong def), Simon Hogan (Geelong mid), Marty Clarke and Peter Yagmoor (Collingwood backs), Jackson Paine (Collingwood def-fwd), Tom Ledger (St Kilda mid), and Jamie Cripps (St Kilda forward), but you won’t need more than a few of these blokes if you loaded up on Giants last week.

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Defenders

Best bets

In previous years, the little sub-head above would’ve been something like “Safe as houses”, but it seems there are job security and/or scoring potential concerns over even the strongest candidates this year. About an hour ago, GWS defender Tommy Bugg and Richmond rookie Brandon Ellis enjoyed the highest ownership of this lot, each finding themselves in 28% of teams. While they are far from worry-free picks, they’re the best of a bad lot. I’ve got an uneasy feeling that Bugg and Sam Darley are going to alternate through that spot in the GWS defence frequently this year, while Ellis has shown promise without taking a stranglehold of his spot in the Tigers’ best 22. If you’re putting rookie-priced players on the ground in the backline, as I imagine the majority will be, then Bugg and Ellis will need some mates. A bit higher up the price bracket ($140k-$150k), you can latch on to Magpie Marty Clarke or, Sun Karmichael Hunt. You’ll cringe at the latter, but Hunt’s scores will almost certainly increase from the 30s he coughed up last year with his first season under his belt and more time in the middle of the ground. His job security is definitely better than that of Clarke, who is yet to cement a spot in the Collingwood team, despite the opportunities on offer.

Need more fresh meat?

Sam Darley missing out tonight sucks. The one time I got to see GWS in the flesh this pre-season, Darley really impressed in a role well suited to raking in the DT points, receiving the kick-ins and pin-pointing the next pass down the ground for easy +6s. The guy sitting in front of me with the faded Giants hat that suggested he’d been on board for more than five minutes seemed to be a bit of a fan too. When I struck up a conversation, he spoke glowingly about quite a few of the GWS lads but reserved his highest praise for Darley. Okay, so it turned out that it was in fact Sam’s dad, who might not be the most objective judge of his son’s talents. Still, combined with what I’d already seen of Darley and the research I’d done, he had me convinced he was going to a good fit for my DT side this season. I’m pretty confident that the GWS rotational policy means we’ll see Darley sooner rather than later, and am still tempted to take the risk of picking him from the start, but you’ll want to have a fair bit of faith in your other bench defender if you go down the same path. Someone like Tim Mohr could fill that role, as he’s expected to play a lot of games in the Giants’ last line this year. As expected, his pre-season scoring has failed to match the heights it reached in the VFL last year, but if a warm body on the bench is what you’re after, then Mohr could be your man. Jacob Townsend looks set to be the biggest benefactor of Darley’s omission, however. He has been handed the big tagging duties in the GWS pre-season and, after some impressive performances, finds himself in the round one team to take on Sydney. Age (he’s an 18-year-old) and the fact that Kevin Sheedy will soon need to find room for Scully and co in that midfield group means we might not see him every week, although the fact that he’s done well in run-with roles sets him apart from the rest of the “accumulators” in the side. If none of the GWS boys have you hooked, then you could wait a week and see if Steven Morris gets a gig alongside (and hopefully not in place of) Ellis in Richmond’s round-one side. A mature-ager, they recruited him to play on small forwards, and Carlton has some of the better ones, so an early debut beckons although his place in the team is likely to be tested weekly by his current poor disposal skills.

Scraping the barrel

Collingwood pair Jackson Paine and Peter Yagmoor, as well as GWS defender Jack Hombsch.

Mids

Best bets

As with each line, which midfield rookies you pick really comes down to your structure. If you’re running more than one on the ground here, one of them really should be Stephen Coniglio. Sure, he ain’t cheap at $170,000-odd, but has the best job security and scoring potential from the get-go, given the injuries to teammate Dylan Shiel, Melbourne’s James Magner and Fremantle’s Lachie Neale. The inclusion of Shiel tonight makes him a must-have, in my opinion. There’s the chance that he’ll cop a vest or two as he works his way back to full fitness, but the alternative is wasting a trade as early as pre-round three after a couple of walloping scores. You could lock in a third GWS midfield rookie in James McDonald, but I’d be leaving room for Magner and, if you’re loading up with rookies in the midfield, Neale too after it was revealed that he’s making a quicker-than-expected recovery from injury and could still feature for the Dockers next week. If he doesn’t, you could take Clay Smith, who seems to be a favourite of the new bloke in charge at the Western Bulldogs.

If you need more fresh meat

St Kilda’s Tom Ledger has been doing good things this pre-season, but it’s got to be him or Coniglio at that price and, for some reason, I’m siding with the kid who calls hair “salad”. The same argument applies to big-dollar Giants Dom Tyson and Will Hoskin-Elliott, as well as Port Adelaide’s Chad Wingyard: they’re simply too expensive considering their shaky job security. Anthony Miles might’ve been on your short-list, but the fact he missed out tonight puts him well behind that lot in the “Best bets” group. Alternatively, Sydney’s Harry Cunningham did make the Swans’ round-one team, but is a likely vestee and could just be keeping a spot warm for Ryan O’Keefe. There’s no doubt that the number of injuries occurring in the West Coast camp help Koby Stevens’ cause, but not sufficiently for me to pick him yet.

Rucks

By now, Jon Giles should be firmly implanted in your ruck line-up, either as your money-saving hope at R2 or solid back-up/cash cow at R3. Roy, Warnie and Calvin have sensibly locked in Geelong’s Orren Stephenson and Port Adelaide’s Jarrad Redden as his accomplices in their free version of the Cheat Sheet, although Brisbane’s Billy Longer looms as a potential alternative after a decent NAB. Just lock in Giles at this stage and decide on the others next week!

Forwards

Best bets

There aren’t any real certainties here, which is why a lot of teams will feature dual-position mid-fwd rookies here than in the midfield where they are more useful. At least this year, a rule change will allow us to eventually shift the mid-fwd DPPs to the midfield with some clever trading. Anyway, the forwards. The aforementioned injuries piling up at West Coast have put Gerrick Weedon back in the frame, but I still prefer mature-age recruits Aaron Hall, at the Gold Coast, and Tory Dickson, at the Western Bulldogs. Just. If you’re not sold on them, and don’t think you will be by next week, then you might want to jump aboard the Jeremy Cameron express before it pulls out of the station on Saturday night. The big Giant forward has better job security than any of them, but his scoring won’t likely reach great heights. St Kilda’s Ahmed Saad loomed as a potential pick, although the fact that he’s been named to play VFL this week hurts his chances.

The DPPs

Devon Smith is the only lock here, with GWS teammates and fellow mid-fwds Adam Kennedy and Curtly Hampton secondary options if you need them. Port Adelaide’s Darren Pfeiffer, Adelaide’s Sam Kerridge and Tom Couch, (if he’s granted elevation to Mebourne’s senior list in time) are all outside chances to turn up on teamsheets next week, but I’d rather take Kennedy this week such is the volatility surrounding those three. Back-forward duo Adam Tomlinson (GWS) and Billie Smedts (Geelong) will wind up in a few teams, but their DPP status is outweighed by their scoring potential and job security concerns.

How many Giants is the right number of Giants?

It’s a question I’ve been getting a lot this week. Less than four is nuts, as Bugg, Giles, Smith and at least one of Shiel/Coniglio/McDonald should be locked in. More than seven looks to be stretching their resources a little thin. For the record, I’m currently rolling with Bugg and Darley/Townsend in defence, Coniglio, Shiel and Kennedy i the mids, Giles in the ruck and Smith in the forward line.

So, who are you betting will be your biggest earner this year? The first 17 people to tweet me (@ChookDT) their answer will get the code to the DT Talk Chook league, a shoe-in to finish in the top 10* leagues this year. If I don’t get 17 tweets (don’t laugh, Cal-I’ve-Got-2000-Followers-Now-Vin), I’ll fill the league with a mix of teams from Nick Maxwell and Joey Montagna’s to ones I make for my toddler-age offspring, pets and, probably, inanimate objects around my house. Having actual people to compete against would be way cooler than having to line up against the Spare Room Cupboard’s Crushers in round one, so tweet me now!

*By 10, I mean 10,000 or so.