ARRRRRGGGGGG – that’s a big one!
Welcome for the last time in season 2011 to Calvin’s Captains, the greatest DT captains write up in the land. This week we are not messing around with who not to pick and all that shit… it’s the top 5 only, so don’t bother asking… “Where’s whatshisname” cause I know my stuff and have looked after you very well this year… so in Calvin you trust. Check it out!

Dane Swan should be awesome. He had 115 (30d, 8m) on Geelong this year in Rd. 8 and has previous scores on them of 141, 127 and 94 (all in 2010). In this game, Cameron Ling aka the Pink Pig tagged him during the 1^st quarter and then was moved off him. Only 7 players cracked the 100+ from both teams in this game with Stevie J top scoring with 129. Joel Selwood was good with 121, but Pendles only managed 89. Swanny had a nice 125 (35d) last week and has averaged 127 over the last 3. He’s going for his 6^th straight 100+ score at the MCG this week and is coming off 119 and 171 there in his last 2. Surely he’s ya man?

Sam Mitchell plays the Suns this week and what a great option he’ll be. He had 132 (38d, 8m) last time he played them this year and was one of 9 Hawks to crack the triple figures that day. But he had a week off? Last time he did that this year he bounced back for 129 (Rd.4) and a 113 (Rd.18) and I’m tipping for him to be awesome again this week.

Gary Ablett is worth a thought too. 135 last time he played the Hawks with 34d, 8t and 5m to go with his previous scores against them of 100, 120, 131, 123 and 115. He’s had 142 and 118 in his last 2 games at Metricon and should be great. Last week the Bulldogs only managed 3×100+ scores on the Hawks and they were Boyd 108, Griff 105 and Cross 103 so we know the Hawks don’t give much away but Gazza will cash in for shizzle this week.

Matthew Boyd had his career best DT score EVER last time he played the Dockers… and that was this year. He had 162pts and is going for his 8^th straight 100+ score this year at Etihad where he has averaged 114 there in his last 3… worth a thought for sure.

Tom Rockliff has been in better form over the last 3 games than anyone listed here today averaging 129. His lowest score has just been 110 in his last 9 games this year and is ending the year like a Rocky Steam Train. Certain ‘roughie’ this week.

Good question and my answer is this.

Will you win if you match your Swan against your opponent’s Swan?  Meaning, is your team better on paper? If the answer is ‘YES, my team is better’ and match their captain with the Swan. But if yours is worse? You need a roughie… but don’t go silly! You just need to go someone other than Swan hoping that Swan gets subbed or something unthinkable like that happens. Simply pick a dude from the list above and cross your little DT fingers that they will smash out a 150+! Certainly can happen on any given day from those boys.

Anyway… that’s enough for me. Thanks heaps to everyone for a wickedarse season. My personal highlight was getting Gazza’s 175 at Patersons Playground this year, despite what people might think… getting our logo next to my top pick on fanfooty was a close second J.  I’m looking forward to getting back in here next year (when my team is better) to pumped out more captains advice for our DT TALK dedicated fans like you. So thanks again lads.

Arrgggg welcome my scaly wagging seamen! Check out my work from last week.

LAST WEEKS TOP 5

Dane Swan 119
Scott Pendlebury 94
Matthew Boyd 123
Scott Thompson 151
Gary Ablett 142

Solid effort really. Would have been great if Ablett and Thomo were higher up the list but overall we must always be happy if our captain cracks the 110 mark. This week we are after something massive from our captains to get us over the line with just 2 weeks to go.

For Just 2.7% of my Audience

The other 97.3% of you who aren’t Brent Stanton owners… skip forward to the next part cause this is only directed at the 2.7% of DT coaches who own Brent Stanton, a guy who should kill Port this week. Stants has averaged 124 over the last 5 weeks and has previous scores of 102 and 122 Vs the Power. He averages 126 at Etihad in his last 3 games there and is coming off a massive 153pts in his very last game under the roof. If you are a lucky owner, consider him this week as your opponent will most likely not have him.

When to Risk it?

Do you go against the flow and pick a captain that your opponent will not?

This is a question I often get asked through twitter town (@CalvinDT) and I always answer the same way… Will you beat your opponent this week if you match their captain and is your team better? If the answer is… “No, I have no chance of winning” then go against the grain and pick a ‘roughie’ to go against their ‘Swan’. DT is a funny game, if Swan tweaks an ankle after 20secs (heaven forbid) then you’re back in with a chance. But as I know… predicting injuries are tough, so just pick your best dude and see how the weekend rolls out… or be bold bald!

After a baldman to be your captain this week then consider these two guns. Scott Thompson had an amazing 51d last week against the Suns for 151pts and has a CRAZY GOOD record against his opponent this week in Richmond. With previous scores of 122, 121, 124, 115 and 129 in his last 5 against them he must be on your radar this week. His highest score is just 104 at AAMI in his last 4 games there but this doesn’t bother me too much. Richmond suck and Thomo is on fire and has a record to match it.

Then we have the other bald nut… Gary Ablett. He had 142pts last week against the Crows and averages 122 in his last 3 games this year. He scored 124 in his last game against the Demons and has 4×100+ scores on them in his last 5 games against them. Ablett has not played at the MCG this year but loves the big stage. In 2010, he averaged 132 there as a Cat and I’m tipping him to carve Melbourne to bits!

Swanny at the Playground

Yep, this week our beloved Dane Swan travels to Paterson Playground and with 131 and 158 there in his last 2 games… things might just get nasty. As we all know, the big fella has been in ripping form recently with a lowest score of just 118 in his last 5 games this year and carries a record against the Dockers that has DT coaches extra excited this week. With previous scores of 131, 158, 72, 122 and 150 you see what I mean. Even with that yucky 72 in there, he still averages 127 over this 5 game period. Crowley is still tagging for the Dockers but failing to do the job on our stars like he has done in the past. Daniel Wells had 115pts on him last week and therefore he’s not even an issue of concern. Last week in that game, the Kangaroos had 7×100+ scores on Freo and I’m thinking all the arrows are pointing at Swanny this week with a few pointing towards the 150+ mark as well!

Ok… Very Quickly

Matthew Boyd – Had 119 on the Hawks earlier this year and had 121 and 154 before that and after averaging 121 in his last 3 games this year, he looks very promising.
Dean Cox – Had just 86 and 52 on Brisbane in 2010 and this week against the inform Leuenberger he might find it difficult.
Nick Dal Santo – Had 31d (120) on the Roos in Rd. 15 this year and is going for his 10^th straight 100+ this week and his 6^th straight 100+ at Etihad. Should be good, but for some reason I have a bad feeling. That might bite me…
Sam Mitchell – Has a low of just 110 at the MCG in his last 6 games there and was one of 10 Hawks who had 100+ on the Bulldogs in Rd. 10 this year. Scored 128 and 112 on them in 2010 and after averaging 118 in his last 3 this year, he should be on your radar for sure.
Scott Pendlebury – His 117 on the Dockers in his last game was his highest and only 100+ score on them in his career of 5 games. Had 94 last week, averaging 107 in his last 3 for 2011. Not overly impressive.
Joel Selwood – 92, 111 and 107 are his last 3 scores Vs the Swans but is back at Skilled Stadium where he has had his 2 biggest scores for 2011 in his last 2 games (135, 178). Look out!

Firstly, sorry for the last post, but this Pirate has been a busy little beaver… scrubbing decks, feeding the parrot, but it’s finally here. So let’s get straight into it this week and see what we have for Rd. 22.

Turf Lovers and Haters

Marc Murphy has had a great year in the land of Dream Team but his form lately hasn’t been great. He’s averaged just 98 in his last 3 games this year and this week finds himself at Etihad Stadium against the Hawks on Friday night. The thing here is… he averages a massive 118 there this year compared to the 103 he averages at the MCG. With that said, in his career against the Hawks (6 games) he only has a highest score of 112 making the Hawks his worst team to score DT points on. Chris Judd is the opposite to Marc and would much prefer this game to be at the MCG where he averages 114 there this year compared to Ethiad where he averages 99 for 2011. Judd has previous scores of 124, 104, 125, 100 and 122 against the Hawks but since he is at Etihad… I’ll pass.  Another one to be wary of is Matthew Boyd. He has 0×100+ score at AAMI in his last 3 games there but lets face it, he only plays Port, a team he had 133 on in 2010. Boyd is going for his 6^th straight 100+ score Vs the Power this week and after averaging 120 in his last 3 games this year, he’s certainly a great option.

It’s Black and White

Keep it simple my captain hunters…it’s finals time. Scott Pendlebury had 119 on the Lions in 2010 and racked up 129 and 135 on them in 2009. He averages 124 in his last 3 games at the MCG and is coming off a great 141 in his last game there. If you are after a solid captain then this guy is your man. He’s going for his 13^th straight 100+ score this week and you’d think he’d get it easy peasy against Brisbane.

Did you know that Brisbane are Dane Swan’s worst team to play over his career of 10 games where he averages just 81? You worried? Ha ha ha, don’t be. He has scored 125 and 122 in his last 2 against them and averages 140 at the MCG in his last 3 there with 171 in his last game. But based on form alone, Swan must be your man. 137, 155 and 171 are his latest scores and I’m tipping a huge 140+ from him again this week. After we met up with Swanny on Friday night, it became clear to me that he is fully aware of his dream team responsibilities to us all. Roy asked him if he’s a chance to rest… “No way, too many dream teams relying on me” he replied. Watch out… cause he has himself in his team to now since arriving back from Arizona and look how things have gone since then.

History Says “No”

Gary Ablett scored a huge 156 (41d, 4g) last time he played against the Crows (Rd. 8, 2011) and averages 114 at Metricon this year, if you exclude that dirty 23pts a few games back. The thing here is this… Ablett has played the Crows 14 times in his career and has only managed to crack the 100+ mark twice. In both those games he scored over 150! Meaning 86% of the time Gary plays the Crows he has scored <100, but the upside here is he is scoring 150+ Vs them a nice 100% of the time he has been wearing a GC top.  History says ‘no’, I’m still saying ‘yep’. Oh and while I’m chatting GC Vs Crows… Scott Thompson had 135 (34d, 9m) on the Suns earlier this year and was one of 9 Crows to crack the 100+ mark that day and should be great again… let’s move on.

Sam Mitchell has only 1×100+ against Carlton in his career of 9 games against them and that was in 2009. He has only played at Etihad once this year for a solid 103 and has scored 128 and 129 in his last 2 games this year, but he may just start your weekend off on the wrong foot if history is telling the truth.

Nick Dal Santo hates playing the Swans. They are clearly his worst team to play over his career (14 games) and has a highest score against them of just 115 (2009). This 100+ score is his only triple figure effort against them and if you are considering him this week, think again. Oh and the game is at ANZ stadium too where he averages just 70 there from the 2 games he’s played.

Be a Toughie, Go a Roughie

So your opponent this week is going Swan… and you’re team sucks so you’re after a ‘roughie’ then Bryce Gibbs is your man…or anyone else listen under Swan. But Gibbsy averages 108 against the Hawks in his last 3 games and has been in hot form averaging 129 in his last 3 games this year. In fact he is going for his 7^th straight 100+ this week and you’d think he’d get that.

With the first round of finals starting you have certainly come to the right place to get your captains advice. Why not turn to the best when you need a ripping captain? To show you that you are in safe hands this week, check out my work from last week…

Dane Swan = 155pts
Joel Selwood = 135pts
Dean Cox = 57pts
Stevie Johnson = 146pts
Nick Dal Santo = 115pts
Marc Murphy = 87pts

Not bad hey? Cox and Marc let me down but if you listened you would have just gone with Swan or Selwood… right? Anyway, let’s get moving and have a look at what we have this week.

118 or 104?

What will he score? In his career against the Crows, Joel Selwood has scored…  118, 104, 104, 118 and 118. Amazing hey? Joel has been in ripping form over the last 2 weeks with scores of 135 and 178. He has only been playing the ‘bunnies’ of the competition though, but what would you class Adelaide as? He averages 113 at AAMI in his last 3 games and after averaging 140 in his last 3 this year he must be in our calculations this week. So after all this, 118 or 104… I’m tipping him to score 125.

Hug A Swan

Why not?! Swan has been on fire with scores of 155 and 171 in the last 2 weeks and has scored 94, 162 and 137 in his last 3 games at Etihad. This week he plays the Saints and we have a few interesting things here we need to cover. Back in Rd. 11 when Swan played them last, he had just 19d for 84pts and saved that score with 4 cheap goals. It could have been much worse. That day he copped a tag from Dempster as Clinton Jones tagged Daisy Thomas who killed him for 122. In 2010, Swan averaged 130 on the Saints in 3 games and should be awesome this week despite that dirty 84 he had back when he was playing crap. The Saints have been restricting DT points from their opposition recently as they have given up just 11×100+ scores in the last 4 weeks. But it must be said that those teams were Freo, Suns, Adelaide and West Coast. So if you think Swan can shake the awesome tag of Dempster (pfftth) and continue his form this week… then you need to hug a Swan too.

But WAIT… “I hate having my captain play on Friday night, will he be ok?” Arggg good question my man… Swan has only played on the Friday night 3 times this year for scores of 116, 131 and 115. He’ll be fine. I bloody hope so anyway.

We All Love A Quicky

Pendlebury – Had 129 on the Saints already this year and has been in awesome form with a lowest score of 120 in his last 4 games this year.
Cox – Had his lowest score for the year last week (57) and is obviously playing hurt.
Stevie J – Will crash this week as he only had 66 on the Crows this year and has just 1×100+ on them in his career of 8 games. Never scored a ton at AAMI.
Redden – Plays the Suns and has had 8×100+ scores in his last 9 games this year but did have 64 on the Suns when they lost.
Marc – Had 87 on Melbourne last week and hates playing at Patersons despite averaging 112 on Freo in his last 3.
Boyd – Averages just 92 against the Bombers in his last 3 but did have 126 last week.
Ablett – Will he play? He only had 84 on the Lions when they won this year and has never scored a 100+ score at the GABBA from 7 games… Never ever!
Dal Santo – Scored 105 on the Pies this year with scores of 126, 112, 128 and 121 before that!
Judd – Averages 129 at Patersons in his last 3 and had 121 on the Dockers when they met this year.
Rockliff – Has a lowest score of just 117 in his last 3 at the GABBA this year and averages 122 in his last 3 but did only have 86 on the Suns in their last game.
Mitchell – Over his career has only scored 100+ on the Power 21% of the time (14 games). Did have 110 in his last though which was his only 100+ on them in his last 5. However, loves the MCG with a lowest score of just 110 there in his last 5 games.
Gibbs – Dockers are his favourite team over the last 2 years with scores of 112, 106, 140 and 142. He is averaging 120 in his last 3 games this year.
Twitter Town – @CalvinDT… Don’t forget to hook me up to chat DT and all things to do with captains in Twitter Town. Or maybe do what others do and abuse me when your #1 pick doesn’t get a kick or injured… all good.

There you go. Good luck for the first round of finals and I’ll see you next week when we’ll crunch the numbers again. Arrgggg.

LAST WEEKS TOP 5

Scott Pendlebury 141
Sam Mitchell 100
Leigh Montagna 99
Brendon Goddard 153
Dane Swan 171

That’s not too bad. Yeah a little bit out of order but overall not too bad. Oh and sucked in those people who thought the Pirate was wrong at the 20 min mark of the 1st quarter when Pendles had just 1pt. Boy, did I cop some abuse early but ha ha shove it. Gotta be happy with 141, but some people still weren’t. “Should have told us Swan” ha ha well yeah that’s true, but c’mon, a little slack please… But thanks for lifting SP10 – Oh and hover the cursor over the pic above he he

Love the Cox

In Dean Cox’s last 2 games this year… he has scored 155 and 137 and this week finds himself back at his beloved Patersons Playground where he has averaged 119 this year. He scored 103 on the Tigers last year and averages 118 on them in his last 3 encounters. How much do you love Big Cox?

Why is he in Your List and Where is …?

Oh these questions… They pop up every week. Obviously can’t cover everyone in the league but I have the stats and averages of many top players that I have researched. Join me in Twitter Town (@CalvinDT) for more… but in a quick word.

Sam Mitchell – Hasn’t played the Roos in 2 years and it will be pissing down with rain in Launie on Saturday and as we saw last week… this doesn’t suit the Hawks high possession footy very much.
Gary Ablett – Watch the News dude, he’s missing this week.
Nick Dal Santo – Good option for those who have him. Averages 121 on Freo in his last 3 and after averaging 132 in his last 3 and 130 in his last 5 this year, he’ll be very good again.
Jamie Dwyer – Doesn’t play AFL, he’s a gun hockey player.
Brendon Goddard – Carries a low of 109 in his last 5 at Etihad and did have 152 last week Vs the Suns, but we have much better this week.

We’re Sorry Dean

After last week’s result, Stevie J and Joel Selwood must take some responsibility for the sacking of Dean Bailey. When the Melbourne board saw 171pts and 178pts next to their names last weeks… it had to be the final straw. 9 Cats cracked the ton last week where their top 5 players averaged a huge 159 points… oh my. Not your fault Deano.

Stevie J was on fire last week with 34d and 7 goals (171pts) and meets the Suns at Skilled this week. He had another 7 goals Gold Coast in Rd. 10 for… 171pts. Amazing stat really. Many people will go Stevie for this reason but let’s not fall into the trap of chasing unique forwards who will need 7 goals next to their name to post huge scores. In the 5 games leading up to last week, Stevie was averaging just 83 and although he’s on fire and should be awesome… let’s keep things in perspective. Do we think Stevie will score another 171 this week? Probably not, but he still should be very good.

Joel Selwood racked up a massive 43d last week with 7m and 11t for his 178pts and should be awesome again Vs the Suns on his home track where he has averaged 131 there in his last 3 games this year. He had 116 last time they played the Suns from just 27d. He’ll rack up near the 40d mark again this week and should be a great captain option for those patient coaches who still have him.

So… who plays the Demons this week? Look out for a huge score from Marc Murphy who already has scored a massive 145 on them this year. With scores of 98, 12 and 104 before that against them he should also be ‘Joel like’ this week and give the struggling Dees a little touch up at the MCG.

Will They Give a S%&#?

Last time the Cats played the Suns a few of them cruised around and failed to post the scores we were hoping for. Let’s face it, after thumping the Demons last week… will they really be putting in 100% against the Suns at Skilled without Ablett. This is a huge concern! Who will be subbed at the half? Who will be rested? Last time these teams played, Bartel only had 18d (67pts) and although he has scored 4×100+ scores at Skilled this year from as many games… will he care? Will Chapman care? It didn’t look like he did when they played up in QLD. He had just 95pts and ‘junked’ it up late in the 4^th.  YES they will be awesome, and YES they will win by 400pts and score big numbers… but they all won’t, they didn’t last time and who will be subbed?

Swansational

Dane Swan played Port in round 1 this year and racked up 34d (137pts) on them despite a tag from Cassisi. With previous scores against them of 137, 141 and 154 and after coming off a huge 171 last week against the Bombers, Swan may just be the most selected captain this week. He averages 109 in his last 3 games at AAMI Stadium with 141 coming from his last game there in 2010. Swan is a John Locke this week guys. In other Pie News, Scott Pendlebury has never scored over 100 at AAMI from his 4 games there but did have 121pts on them in Rd. 1 this year. He copped a tag from Thomas that day and still managed 31d. Pendles has averaged 129 in his last 3 games this year and comes off a nice 141 last week. His record at AAMI is a slight concern and that’s why, with so many great options this week, he misses out in my top few.

… and yes I can have 6 cause I can basically do what I want – see ya next week and goodluck!

Sam Da Man

Sam Mitchell’s record against the Fremantle Dockers in amazing and when you add that to the fact that he is playing them at one on his favourite DT grounds in Australia, we have ourselves a potential captain for Rd. 19. Sam played these guys in Rd. 11 this year, that day he avoided the Crowley tag (who went to Hodge) and racked up a nice 129pts. Before that he has posted 102, 129 and 141 on the Dockers and should be great again this week. The last time Sam played at Patersons Playground was in 2009… that year Sam had massive scores of 147 and 141 and joins the huge list of superstar Victorians who love the space that Patersons offers.  He had a solid 113 (30d) last week and averages 123 in his last 3 games this year. His hand is up for your selection!

The Ultimate Germ

Yeah, he is. Leigh Montagna is one of the ultimate DT germs going around.  Last week, Montagna had 11pts at the quarter and finished with 117pts after a 55pt final term as he ‘germed’ it up when the game was all over red rover.

The thing I’d like to show you this week is what Leigh Montagna does to the shitter teams in the AFL compared to the better teams. When the game is over… Montagna comes to life and kills the dud teams. When the game is hard (against the tougher teams) Montagna has either spat it with his tag and given up or… given up.

Check out his average in his last 3 games against the following teams:

Top 3 Teams

Collingwood – 77
Geelong – 78
Hawthorn – 87

Bottom 6 Dud Teams

Bulldogs – 100
Richmond – 124
Adelaide – 100
Brisbane – 129
Gold Coast – ?
Port Power – 102

You’d expect most players would average lower Vs the harder teams, naturally… but C’mon Leigh! These numbers speak for themselves and with 117 and 124 coming in his last 2 games this year, look out for ‘Montagna the Germ’ to cash in this week against the young Suns.

A Few Good Men

Dark Horse… watch out for Joel Selwood who has had 110, 131, 105 and 120 in his last 4 against the Demons. But after a highest score of just 108 in his last 4 games this year… he’s due.
Swan Not Gone… He sits a little low on my top 5 this week as last time he played the Bombers he had just 24d for 104pts. Yeah he’s better now but the Bombers are his 2^nd worst team and although he’s had 101, 148 and 130 in his last 3 at the MCG… I’m sceptical. I still think he’ll pump out a 120 but it does come with a little risk with them being his 2^nd worst team.
God-Hard… Warnie might be, but Brendon Goddard this week should be very good Vs the Suns. Last week he had 73pts at half time Vs the Crows and plays a team who gave 6 Collingwood players 117+ scores last week. He is averaging 110 in his last 3 games this year and should be right up there in the best this week.

John Locke Him In!

Wow, that’s a little fancy… John LOCKE him in. Why not?

Scott Pendlebury has been in ripping form recently averaging 118 in his last 3 games this year and finds himself going for his 10^th straight 100+ score this week.

Last time Pendles played the Bombers he had a massive 166pts and walked away with the ANZAC Day Medal in Rd. 5 this year. He had 34d, 10m, 8t and 3 goals that day and did it with a tag from Heath Hocking (good try). Before that game, Pendles had 134 and 97 on them in 2010 and finds himself at the MCG this week where he had 123 in his last game there and goes for his 6^th straight 100+ score there in a row this week.

Last week, Carlton played Essendon and the Blues walked away with 5×100+ scorers as Mr. Big Daddy (Judd) had 34d, 12t for his 138pts, Marc had 118 and Gibbsy racked up a quiet 114 himself. So brace yourself for another ripping score from Mr. SP10 this week.

TWITTER TOWN – @CalvinDT for all the up to date stuff on captains.

Watch Out For Gazza

Let’s ignore the game when Garry had that 23pts and check out his numbers (exc. that game). He is averaging 131 in his last 3 this year with an average of 119 on his home ground over his last 3 games there. His record against the Pies is mad as he has had scores of 122, 108, 105, 114, 134, 118 and 115 in his last 7 games against them. Over the last few weeks, other premo midfielders have been scoring well on the Pies too. Hodgey (135) and Mitchell (137) went crazy against them a few weeks back and last week Gibbs (107) and Marc (93) were also solid. Anyway, just watch out for a big game from the little master this week.

Yep… there they are, THE BIG 3. This week they play the Gold Coast Suns making our jobs very very easy. Pick a Pie!

Dane Swan had 101 last week against the Blues and racked up 31d but wrecked his score as 45% of them were handballs. Amazingly, Swan has only played outside of Melbourne once this year and in that game he had a huge 125pts on the Swans. He’s averaging 126 in his last 3 games this year and should get the job done for many Dream Teams this week. Dale Thomas is also in hot form as he has averaged 124 in his last 3 games this year and is coming of a huge 135 last week that consisted of 29d, 10m and 5t. Daisy has scored 5×120+ scores in his last 7 games this year and will be ridiculously good as well. Last week, Scott Pendlebury had 123 and finds himself this week going for his 9^th straight 100+ game in a row. Sounds good doesn’t it? But the biggest question here is, will he play?

3-2 = Pendles

I hate to say… but Pendles is a red hot chance to sit out this weeks game against the Suns. Earlier this week, Mick Malthouse came out and said that the Pies will play the Suns this week without 6 to 8 of their Premiership players from last year. This includes Shaw and those others out injured… but as Pendles is already nursing a ‘sore’ shoulder, he’s nearly a sure thing to rest with them. Swan has already had his spell and so has Daisy. Now, I’m not a math-magician with a fancy PHD in numbers but I know that if I have 3 stars, and 2 stars have already rested… I’m left with 1.

Twitter Town – @CalvinDT

Don’t forget to follow this Irish Pirate in twitter land too. As occasionally the top 5 players change due to weather conditions, injuries etc … you need to follow the Pirate to get all the up to date captain tips and hot bets.

Suns Still Golden

Yeah no surprises here. So check out the numbers the Suns have been giving up.

Richmond had 7×100+ scorers with their top 3 averaging 129
Sydney had 5×100+ scorers with their top 3 averaging 109
Fremantle had 5×100+ scorers with their top 3 averaging 142

The amazing thing here is… Richmond even posted huge numbers on them… and they LOST!

I know there are some morons out there and … oh why am I bothering. But trust me, as good as I am I can not pick when people will get injured. If I could… I wouldn’t be wearing a stupid eye patch speaking in a crappy pirate accent that occasionally sounds Irish. AND IF YOU COULD pick an injury… I doubt you’d be sitting there reading what a mad pirate has to say about picking a guy who you can’t control, in a fantasy football computer game.

C’mon guys… get real!

With that said… my top 5 was pretty good if you can look past what Gazza did, and for those who didn’t have him and cashed in on one of my other top picks, then my hat goes off to you. Well played.

Did you know? That 83% of the top 1000 had Gary Ablett in their side before lock out last week, meaning more could have traded him in! Out of that 83% you’d imagine that nearly all of them went Garry as captain after his 175 the week before… so rest easy lads, even the good guys had him!

Big Marc’s on Your Pendleberries?

Righteo, this will be controversial and something that could go either way. But the numbers don’t lie and we need to approach these guys with caution this week. No fence sitting here in Calvin’s Captains.

Scott Pendlebury scored just 95 last time he played the Pies in Round 3 this year because he was tagged by Bryce Gibbs. This tag will definitely happen again as it worked, holding SP to just 21 touches, his 2^nd lowest output this year. Carlton are a pretty good lock down team when it comes to holding teams to poor DT scores, even in the games they have lost. The Bulldogs last week only had 4×100+ scorers and a few weeks back the Eagles had the same with their top scorer only having 111pts (Priddis). Anyway, you have been warned.

Marc Murphy hates playing the Pies as he only had 69 on them earlier this year. Back in 2010, Marc has scores of 67 and 110 making them his worst team to score on in the last 2 years. He did have 116 last week and averages 120 at the MCG this year with a low of 116 in his last 5, but the numbers against him here are too risky in my Irish opinion.

Joel Selwood… If Joel is like me, coming back to work after 4 week off is very tough. In his last game against the Lions he had his 2nd highest score of all time (162) and had 110 before that game in 2010, with that 110 being at the GABBA. Yeah he’s rested and ready to go… but without any form next to his name after 4 weeks out, I will watch this week and consider next.

Yeah, statements like this can and usually do bite me in the arse, but the numbers don’t lie and these are two guys I’m staying clear of this week as I’ll be going with a safer option with a better record.

Dark Horses

With an average of 118 in his last 3 against the Lions watch out for a big score from Chapman this week. He had 115 and 123 on them in 2010 with a lowest score of 115 in his last 4 against them. He loves the GABBA where he averages 111 there in his last 3 with 123 coming in his last game there. Scott Thompson loves playing the Bombers and had 146 against them in his last game. He averages 114 on them over his last 7 games and has an average of 117 at AAMI this year. Goddard had 124 last time he played the Eagles and has been smashing it at Etihad recently with a low of just 119 there in his last 3. All three will be great.

Twitter Town – @CalvinDT

You sick of threatening me and abusing me in the comments? Or maybe you’d like a question answered or maybe you’d like to say something positive…

Then follow me on twitter to get all the up to date captain info as it comes in.  My top 5 does occasionally changes as new info comes during the week… so follow the Irish Pirate for the best captain shiz in town.

“I Want My ‘C’ Back!”

Hi… remember me? My name is Dane Swan and months ago you were saying… “I just put the ‘C’ on Swanny every week.” But lately you have neglected me. It might have been because you think I was scoring poorly or I got lazy or shit at footy all of a sudden…and I did, but things have changed!

Since coming back from Arizona I have averaged 134 with scores of 148 (39d) and 130 coming in my last 2 games. Oh, and did you know this week I play Carlton, my favourite team to score DT points on?

I scored 116 (34d, 8m) on them in Rd. 3 this year and scored 114 and 140 on the buggers in 2010. In fact, I’ve had my little calculator out pressing all the buttons and have noticed I have scored 109 or more against them a massive 91% of the time in my last 11 games. I’m averaging 120 at the MCG in my last 3 games with 148 and 130 coming off that ground in my last 2 games there. Sold yet? Well check out my record on Carlton since 2006.

2011 – 116pts
2010 – 114pts, 140pts
2009 – 131pts, 97pts
2008 – 137pts, 109pts
2007 – 109pts, 123pts
2006 – 114pts, 136pts

If you’re not sold yet then you can serious shove it.

Ok, let’s get things on the level. I know you abandoned me, abused me, called me a fat pig and everything else under the sun. But you know what? I forgive you. Just give me my bloody ‘C’ back!

Do You Still Kneed Ablett?

Yes! Why have 1,583 DT coaches (as of Wednesday arvo) traded Ablett out for either  Swan, Pendles, Boyd, Marc, Redden or Mitchell? Yes they are all stars but we are talking about a guy who averaged 141 in his last 5 before tweeking his knee that has no damage. He still might play and if he does… he still might pump out a 130+. Silly trade by silly people with stupid brains.

Will Ablett play? On Tuesday night Roy said “40% chance”, Warnie said “25% chance” and the Irish Pirate said he’s a “48.4% chance”… but with that said, he might get subbed after they are down by 50. Be a late withdrawl. Attempt to play, have handball (2pts) and then realise it’s too sore and sit back down. If he plays I personally think he’ll smash it, but it’s too risky and we need to find a safer option this week.

Basically your choice this week comes down to Swan or Boyd? Matthew Boyd plays the Roos who have given up 12×100+ scores in the last 2 weeks and last time Boyd played them he scored his 3rd highest DT score ever (145).  He had 119 last week and averages 116 in his last 3 this year. So that’s the question… Swan or Boyd? For me…. It’s Swan! But all the top 5 there will be awesome!

Incredible Gaz

So… did you have Gary Ablett locked in with the big ‘C’? Now, what did I say? Bloody hell… some people just don’t listen! Can you believe that people were saying to me… “Oh shit Calvin, I went Boyd over Ablett” as Usher would say, OMG! You guys have the easy job, you just need to listen, I’ll do the hard work, you listen!

Here we go… if you didn’t listen last week, here is your chance to get back on track.

This week Ablett will once again be amazing! As we know, he is coming off a huge 175 last week where he had 34d and 3.2 goals. But the amazing thing here is… he had 14 tackles (56pts alone). His form has been amazing as Gazza carries a lowest score of just 118 in his last 5 games this year with an average of 143 in his last 3. This week, he plays the Swans… and doesn’t Garry just love playing the boys from Sydney. Firstly, he averages 143 on them in his last 3 games and had 127 and 167 on them in 2010 when he was with Geelong. Before 2010, he smashed them again for scores of 141, 126 and 150. Sold yet? Ablett plays the Swans this week on his home track where he has averaged 119 there in his last 3.

Just to make sure we are on a winner here, let’s look at what scores the Swans have been giving up recently… Adelaide only scored 2×100+ on them at a very wet AAMI Stadium last week and in the week before Collingwood had 4×100+ on them with DT midfield premiums in Swan, Pendlebury and Ball all in the 100+ group. Then in Rd. 13, Carlton had 5×100+ scorers on them when Marc (129) and Bryce (127) cashed in… but Judd only had 85. Why? Well… he got the Craig Bird tag, and he has been going pretty well at tagging some of the big guns. Bird has tagged Scottie Thompson (92), Judd (85) and Cotchin (101) in recent weeks but surprising went to no one in the Collingwood match. Bird will have his hand raised high this week to have a crack at the former Cat superstar… but he won’t make an ounce of difference to Ablett’s massive score this week.

Mitchell at Aurora

Always a great option isn’t it? With scores of 132 and 129 coming from the Launceston ground already this year, Sam Mitchell will surely be great once again. He’s averaged 132 in his last 3 games this year with a low of just 128 during that time. He has scored 4×100+ on the Lions in his last 5 games at an average of 107 in his last 3. Sam at Aurora… always a good bet!

Boyd At Eti-Hard?

Is it really that Eti-hard Boyd? Man! In 2010, Matthew Boyd rocked up to Etihad with 120pts ready to go up on the board without even trying. In fact, last year he averaged 124 there with 90% of his scores being above 100+. But in 2011, things have been a little different. He has averaged 109 there so far this year with only 63% of his score in the 100+ range AND with 93 and 70 coming in his last 2. He had 142 last time he played the Blues in 2010 and we all know Boyd will bounce back for a huge 140 soon, but when will it be? Can you pick it?

Personal Besties

Cast your mind back to Round 2 this year, Collingwood Vs the Kangaroos. Remember? Ok, I’ll refresh your lame memory…

Dane Swan had his personal best score EVER in his DT career of 162. He had 40d, 6t that day and ripped the Roos to pieces. He averages 134 on them in his last 3 games with scores of 123 and 117 coming prior to his PB. Swan has been awesome since coming back from his U.S adventure with 130 and 125 next to his name since arriving home. Make no mistake my friends, SWAN IS BACK.

Now, In the this game, Pendlebury didn’t have a personal best. He was close… he equalled his 2^nd best DT score in his career (141). He racked up 39d with 7m and like Swan, wasn’t tagged. Last week the Saints played the Roos and even they scored massively on them. Goddard (130), Dal Santo (120) and even Montagna (105) chipped in for solid numbers to be 3 of the 6 guys to crack 100 against them. 11×90+ scores were had by the Saints with only 1×90+ score going to the Roos (Goldstein 130) and this was in a game the Saints only won by 9. Look out Swanny and Pendles fans cause this will get nasty!

Dark Horse

Yeah let’s have a quick look at a roughie for this week. Paul Chapman is my man with an average of 103 against the Eagles in his last 3 games. He is coming off a 128 in his last game this year but has a very impressive record at Patersons Playground. In his last 6 games there he has gone… 101, 112, 146, 135, 105 and 126. Pretty good hey? So if you’re looking for a roughie or a good bet maybe, I’ll recommend Mr. Chappy.

There you have it. Based on the numbers alone it has to be Gary. But on the other hand I am very very confident in Swanny and Mitchell as well. Ablett ticks all the boxes this week in style so he’ll be my #1 man all the way!

Good luck and I hope you have a ripping week. I’ll see you back in here next week for the greatest DT captain advice in Australia.

Never One to Brag

Oh… who put that there? You know I don’t like to brag when I select good captains, so who snuck that picture in there? Ewwwww me!

It’s like I have a glass ball made out of …. umm

Last week I had a blinder and this Irish Pirate is ‘up and about’. All my top 5 guys ripped it to pieces and although Boyd was the best, we only lost 18pts because of Gary being at #1. With that said, Ablett still had a huge 118 and we can never complain about that unless you’re a whinging sook!

Marc My Words

In round 1 this year, Mr. Marc Murphy played the Tigers ripped them up for a huge 127. He had 31d and 7t that day and avoided the Jackson tag as he ran with the mighty Judd. Marc’s form has been amazing. He has averaged 126 in his last 3 games this year and has a lowest score of just 117 in his last 6. Although Marc enjoys playing under the roof of Etihad Stadium (avg. 120 in 2011) he doesn’t mind the MCG (avg. 107 in 2011) where he had a huge 145 in his last game there. In the last 3 weeks though, the Tigers have been restricting DT scoring only allowing 8 players to score 100+ against them. Does this bother you? No. Does this bother me? No. So why am I mentioning it? No Idea. Marc will be ridiculously good… once again.

High Possession Hawks

Dane Swan was back to his best last week with 125pts (33d, 8m) and carries a very good record against the Hawks here. He has a lowest score of just 119 against them in his last 3 games with a huge 133 coming in his last encounter against them. Pendlebury is a different story as his top score against the Hawks is just 108 after playing them 7 times in his career so far. His form is mega hot though as he is going for his 6^th straight 100+ score this week and will attempt it at the MCG where he has averaged 115 this year. Both these guys will roam around without a tag as Brad Sewell is out injured but… with all that said, we have a problem. Quick someone tell Houston!

The Hawks are hogging the ball. They are kicking it between themselves not letting anyone play. If you were an 8 year old kid, you would have spat the dummy ages ago. This is great if you have Hawks in your team, bad if you want mega big scores from your Pies this week. Over the last 3 week, the Hawks have continued this style, killing their oppositions ability to score DT points…

Essendon – 3×100+ scorers with their top 3 players averaging 115
Gold Coast – 1×100+ scorers with their top 3 players averaging 108
Geelong – 3×100+ scorers with their top 3 players averaging 114

Hawthorn during this time – 23×100+ scorers with their top 3 averaging 132

My point here is pretty clear… I hope it is. The Hawks hog the ball and stop their opposition from scoring the numbers we like. I still think Swanny and Pendles will be ok, but this adds a risk to the equation.  But for the record you have been warned.

Pav’s Moment in the Sun

We all have our moment in the sun at some point in our lives and this week, the man with the massive nose has it. Yes, we are talking about Matthew Pavlich.

Last week, Pavlich played the Lions and smacked them around for a huge 132pts and finds himself once again back at Paterson Playground this week. In his last 2 games there he has scored 132 and 113 and will look for something better this week.

We all know the Suns give opposition teams $h%# loads of DT points and Pav will look to cash in on that this week, it’s his turn to shine and on his home track, it will be nasty.

Little Master

Oh Garry, we love you and after averaging 133 in you last 3 games this year with a low of 118 in your last 4, you can’t blame us. This week, Gazza is up against the Dockers and his record against them is mad! In 2010, he scored 117 and 130 on them (with Geelong) and smashes them every time without fail. That bloody Crowley tags him every time too, but it has never mattered and it will not bother the Little Master this week. Why? We’ll… Crowley tagged Simon Black last week and even Black killed him with 33d (118pts) to be one of the 5 Lions to score 100+. But one of the biggest reasons to go Garry this week is because he is at one of his favourite grounds, Paterson Playground (same as Pav, fancy that). Ablett has already played there this year (against the Eagles) where he had a massive 132. To prove that it wasn’t a fluke, Gazza had scores of 110 and 130 there in 2010 giving him an average of 124 there in his last 3. You got Garry? Lock the master in right now!