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Calvin:

Scottie Thompson @ $51

As we all know, Scottie Thompson has one hell of an easy draw this year. He plays the GWS, Suns and Port twice and in my book that adds up to 18 votes right there!

Sam Mitchell @ $9

I’m not a huge Sam Mitchell fan, but with the Hawks getting better and better he will certainly poll well just like last year when he nearly won the thing despite being suspended. He polled 30 votes… this would have won him the Brownlow in any other of the 14 seasons leading up to this one. He’s a ball magnet right under the umpire’s eye!

Roy:

Michael Barlow @ $41

Over a career spanning just 22 games and 9 of them on the back of  a return from serious injury, Barlow has managed 12 Brownlow votes, showing his work is not going unnoticed from the umpires. From all reports, he has been smashing it on the track and looks set to have an even greater impact than his rookie year where he was right up there in the count until breaking his leg.

Gary Ablett @ $11

Gazza was not expected to poll many votes last year in a team that struggled for a win but he proved the doubters wrong (23 votes). This year, he will be playing for an improved team that has been gifted a nice draw. It also appears that he has been able to spend a lot more time on the track during the pre season this year, indicating he will smash it from the first bounce.

Warnie:

Lance Franklin @ $41

I see the Hawks as a huge chance to finish top 2 in 2012 and riding on that hope is the big Budwood. My brain massively says no. I’ve had him plenty of times in Dream Team, this man give away more free kicks than anyone else and is a constant suspension worry. Buuutttt… if he can get through a full season, he will be a key reason why the Hawks might be top 2. Chance for 100 goals again? Maybe. Hopefully umpires and see how valuable a big man can be to a team and offer up votes to Buddy. At $41, he is ‘good value’.

Bryce Gibbs @ $56

I can’t believe Roy didn’t put Gibbsy in here before me. Well, to be honest… my safe bet would have been Gazza, soft draw and all. But I’m liking the value in Bryce Gibbs. Yes, there is Juddy and Murphy that will take a whole heap of votes away from him, and rightly so. But if Gibbs can play that midfield role – as outlined in the Deck of DT on him and the media talk – then he is every chance to get votes. I don’t know. It might just be because a mate did a multi-bet when Gibbs was paying over 100-1 with the Blues making the top 4 and Roy was excited about it. I’m way too easily led.

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Use this as your discussion forum for the big award tonight and let us know your thoughts about who you think will win the big thing and some of your favourite bets that you’re placing this evening.

Warnie, Roy and Calvin will post in the comments before the count starts to let you know what we’re on at SportingBet.

So! Here’s the rub on what I like on offer this week. Personally, I’m layering these into 2-step multis again, along with another long bow in search of a massive payout.

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Boak ($2.70) to beat Sewell and Kornes, into
Goodes ($2.75) to beat Griffen and Bolton.
Odds: $7.42

Boak seems to play particularly well against the Hawks, with 123 and 133 two of this most recent scores against them and a week off to rest should do him good. High risk, but Kornes isn’t the player he used to be and Sewell is consistent without being awesome. Goodes has let us down twice already this year, but hasn’t scored less than 103 against the Dogs in what seems like forever, averaging 110 against them for the last couple of years. Griffen, on the other hand, hasn’t scored higher than 74 against Sydney in his entire career with 60, 53, 60 in his last three.

Kelly ($2.80) to beat Enright and Swallow, into
Corey (2.50) to beat Anthony and Rawlings
Odds: $7.00

Both Kelly and Corey have pretty stellar records against North. Kelly’s last two read 101, 131 while Corey has smashed out 119 and 104. Swallow averages 66 in his last three against Geelong while Rawlings averages only 65. Enright should cop a forward tag and Anthony just isn’t very good.

Deledio ($2.70) to beat Pavlich and Grigg, into
Redden ($2.75) to beat Rockliff and Ablett
Odds: $7.42

Calvin’s already warned us off Pavlich, and it’s nice to see that Lids averages 103 against Freo in his last three games. Grigg is a bit of an unknown factor but as a Richmond member, I don’t see him setting the field alight this week. Rockliff denied Redden by one point last week (bastard!) but I’m getting back on that horse and expecting Redden to get the goods this week against GCS. And I’m calling it now; I’ve also got a side-bet on GCS to beat Brisbane this week.

Watson ($2.70) to beat Stanton and Cox, into
Johncock ($2.75) to beat Knights and Jones
Odds: $7.42

Another one point loss last week, but Watson should outscore Stants more often than not. Cox is discarded by our Never-Bet-On-A-Ruckman rule, and his record isn’t as good as the two bombers in matches between them anyway. Johncock has, believe it or not, knocked out a lazy 118, 103, 98 record against Melbourne recently which is much more impressive than anything either Knights or Jones have done in the last two or three years.

Goddard ($2.65) to beat Judd and Gibbs, into
Murphy ($2.55) to beat Dal Santo and Montagna
Odds: $6.75

This may turn out to be a single bet on Goddard, if you believe the rumours about Murphy’s elbow. Murphy is a sure thing when Montagna is wayyyyy off form and while I picked Dal Santo to flog Adelaide last week (126, thankyou very much), his record is pretty ordinary against the blues. Goddard struggled last week but averages 105 against Carlton in recent times, while Judd hasn’t 100 in his last three vs the Saints and Gibbs hasn’t cracked 100 against anyone for a month.

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Good luck this week, boys. As always, very interested to hear where your money is going and who you think should be in the massive multi this time around. And hopefully, the DT Gods are good to us.

Have fun
-Housn.

That said, just like in DT, you’ve gotta back in your chosen players. We know that more often than not, Petrie will outscore Mayne. Most here would agree that Ablett will beat Rischitelli nine times out of ten and when Goodes can’t top 80 points, something’s gone wrong. We haven’t laid many ‘bad’ bets so far… but the DT Gods have not been kind, either.

So! Let’s spread the risk a little. What we’ll do now is lay a series of 2-leg multis for $10 each; most of these will be around $7-8 odds. Land one out of five and we make a little pocket money – two or more and we’re really talking. And just because I can’t help myself, and because we have $60 to burn this week from the original post, we’ll also put five of the best options into a massive last-gasp multi and see what happens.

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Getting down to business, here’s what I like on offer this week…

Cox ($2.60) to beat Priddis and Sylvia, into
Grimes ($2.80) to beat Embley and Moloney
Total odds: $7.28

Cox will be a popular VC option this week. While Priddis has the same three-game average against Melbourne as Cox does (102, give or take a point), that was boosted by 154 in a single match which nearly doubled his usual output. Sylvia doesn’t usually score too well against the Eagles (right, Calvin?) so this one may be determined by which Priddis rocks up to play. In the second leg, Grimes has played against West Coast three times for a return of 112, 109, 143. Enough said, lock and load.

Second Bet:

Goodes ($2.75) to beat Judd and Jack, into
Redden ($2.75) to beat Rockliff and Martin
Total odds: $7.56

Goodes has scored 116+ in two of his last three against the Blues, with the other score being 37 where he completely went missing and god knows what happened there. All three of the young guns in the second leg have been on fire recently, but I’m backing Redden to outperform the other two this week. Richmond’s best tagger is out and in his only game against the Tigers, Redden knocked out a lazy 117.

Third Bet:

Dal Santo ($2.90) to beat Goddard and Thompson, into
Gram ($2.50) to beat Van Berlo and Fisher
Total odds: $7.25

Crazy? Like a fox. Nicky-Dal’s last three against the Crows read 121, 117, 120. Thompson has always struggled against the Saints and while Goddard is short-priced for a reason, this might just pay off. Gram seems to have a day out whenever he plays Adelaide as well, averaging 118 against them over his last three games.

Fourth Bet:

Watson ($2.60) to beat Ablett and Stanton, into
Swan ($1.85) to beat Pendlebury and Cross
Total odds: $4.81

Essendon haven’t played against the Gold Coast before, so we’ve only got half of our usual assessments available, being current form this season. Watson is still in Brownlow form and while the other two guns can do anything, he’s given us no reason to bet against him so far this year. Not sure why Sportingbet didn’t put Boyd into that second leg, but no worries. We all know what Swan can do and he seems to do it particularly well against the dogs.

Fifth Bet:

Thomas ($2.70) to beat Ball and Griffen, into
Murphy ($2.90) to beat Beams and Sidebottom
Total odds: $7.83

Thomas has been a little Katy Perry this year but it’s damn impressive when he gets it right. GWS are really going to like having him lead them out next year. Form line is pretty consistent with Ball but has a much higher ceiling so Thomas gets the money for mine as Griffen always seems to struggle against the Pies. Over the last two years, Murphy has gone 111, 126, 104 to average 114 against Collingwood – seriously! – and with reasonable form this year, should get the job done over two very inconsistent Magpies.

For the final five-leg multi, I’m taking suggestions on where to place some coin tomorrow afternoon. Leave me a comment below with your top three options from what I’ve presented above (and I’m a stubborn bastard, so don’t bother telling me that I should have gone Rockliff over Redden!) and we’ll see if some teamwork can’t buy us a little luck.

Good luck with your own betting, too, and don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.

Have fun
-Housn.

Last week was a complete disaster for DT betting (it was for me, anyway!), but it did remind me of one of the golden rules – never EVER bet on a ruckman no matter how much you like Cox. His very ordinary score was well below expectation, while Petrie cost us what would have otherwise been a very nice multi. In non-ruck failures, Goodes couldn’t even scale a junk-induced 88 from Enright and Thomas somehow outscored Pendles by a measly two points, ruining the two bets that I was most confident with going into last Friday night.

But, I digress. All in all, we laid out $80 and got sweet FA back in return. This week, we’ll lay another $60 on the line and see if we can at least get back over the waterline again.

As with last week, I’ll look at two small multi’s for $10 each; one ‘safe’ and one with a little more risk.

Multi #1

Ablett ($2.50) to beat Rischitelli and Boak
Swan ($1.70) to beat Thomas and Didak
Bartel ($2.65) to beat Chapman and Mitchell

Total odds: $11.26

Three of the biggest DT names right there! Ablett is on the up and will no doubt be keen to prove the media wrong about his workrate. Not like he’s playing Collingwood, either. Swan is a given and Bartel has averaged 122 in his last three against the Hawks. Get on!

Multi #2

Rockliff ($2.80) to beat Goddard and Black
Harvey ($2.70) to beat Jackson and Deledio
Cotchin ($2.70) to beat Wells and Rawlings
Stanton ($3.00) to beat Pendlebury and Watson

Total odds: $61.23

Rockliff is a serious gun in the making while Goddard is both struggling for form and has a poor history against the Lions. Harvey usually stars against the tigers and neither of his opponents have a great record against North. Cotchin is starting to prove his potential and Stanton has scored back to back 139′s in Anzac Day matches while Watson has scored consecutive 80′s. If you’re reading this after the Lions v Saints game, just get on with Rocky. Your odds will be about $22 or so.

On lastly, the back of the above research – and at time of writing, no “best of the best” or specials available – I’ll drop another $20 on both Ablett ($3.00) and Bartel ($4.00) to beat their fields.

So! Total outlay this week: $60
Total potential return: $865

And as a final thought; I had a donut for breakfast this morning. Hopefully not a sign of things to come.

Goodluck!
-Housn.

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I’ve jumped onto Sportingbet to find the best bets available this week. Starting with a bank of $200, I’ll update the balance each week and see how much we can rack up by September. My first rule of gambling is to never risk all of your stash at once; worst-case scenario, we’ve still got something leftover to play with next week.

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So! Here’s what I’ll be looking at for round four:

Cox is paying $2.00 for the highest score in the best of the best rucks – It’s not much but it’s easy money. If you’re a little more adventurous,  look at Cox in the group of eight for the WCE v Hawks match – he’s paying $4.00 in that one and the man most likely to outscore him  (Mitchell) isn’t listed as an opponent. Embley ($7.00) is the wildcard there but I’ll take $20 on Cox to come out on top.

In the group of eight for what will likely be a night to forget for the Tigers (again, sigh), Pendles is paying $2.00. Much like Cox, this has to be easy money as I can’t see Thomas, Jackson, Beams, Deledio, Cloke, Cotchin or Grigg outscoring him. Richmond are quickly becoming a team of taggers (Jackson, Lids, King, White) but Pendles is pure class. Get on it, I’ve got another $40 there.

I can’t resist a good multi, either. Let’s put two of those together for $10 each:

• Goodes ($2.70) to beat Kelly and Enright
• Ablett ($2.50) to beat Sylvia and Moloney
• Fyfe ($2.50) to beat Wells and Adams
• Total odds of $16.87

Geelong is Goodes’ 4th favourite team to play, averaging 90 with a topscore of 121. Ablett is quickly playing himself into form and after 115 against the Dogs last week, can see him lifting another notch again against Melbourne. Fyfe played North twice last year, scoring 60 and 113 and should score well again on the back of 117 last week.

And for a little more risk:

• Deledio ($2.80) to beat Jackson and Beams
• Watson ($2.80) to beat Judd and Murphy
• Priddis ($2.65) to beat Hodge and Burgoyne
• Petrie ($2.75) to beat Mayne and Goldstein
• Total odds of $57.13

Jackson has never broken the hundred against Collingwood and the Tigers know that Lids will need midfield time (possibly running with Pendles) for them to have even half a chance. Watson has been in Brownlow form (and hey, get on that too!) and should have another good night against the Blues. Priddis averages 118 against the Hawks, and I’d be confident of loading him into the first multi as well. Word on the street has Sandi as a late withdrawal so there’s a good 25 hitouts up for grabs – looking at the big Dish to take advantage there.

Total outlay: $80

Total potential return: $900.

Even if only one of the Pendles or Cox bets gets up, we break even. Both of them and we double our money; while landing either multi would be pure cream.

One other thing to keep in mind. If any player in a set doesn’t play, your bet is cancelled and your money is refunded. This proved to be a godsend last week after Boyd smashed out 125 only for Bartel to put him to shame – Mitchell’s late withdrawal saved me from a completely unexpected loss there. This week, Sportingbet have taken that a step further and declared that all bets are off if one of the players starts as a sub. A player being subbed off won’t change anything, though.

And speaking of unexpected losses… there’s never a sure thing (unless it’s that Pendles bet, haha). Gamble responsibly and don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.

Good luck!

Housn

NOTE: The “field” is a group of players selected by sportingbet, it is not all the remaining players on the ground.

Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast

Matthew Boyd to outscore Daniel Cross and Gary Ablett. $2.15 – $15.00 outlay

Dean Cox vs the field. $3.55 – $10.00 outlay.
Cox has scored  102 and 129 in his last 2 vs the Swans. In his last 2 games at Subi he has scored 125 and 142.

Geelong vs Port Adelaide

Paul Chapman to outscore Jimmy Bartel and Joel Corey. $2.35 -$15 outlay
Chappy’s last 3 games vs Port have come at an average of 123, while his last 3 at Skilled have produced 118 per game. Jimmy only averaged 90 and 87 in his last 3.

Steve Johnson vs the field. $4.30 – $5.00 outlay.
I just have a funny feeling Steve is going to go to town on these guys today.

Adelaide vs Fremantle

Greg Broughton vs the field. $8.00 – $10.00 outlay
This is a bit of a left field roughy (especially considering his poor start to the year) but historically Broughts loves playing the Crows with scores of 117 and 120 in his last 2.

Melbourne vs Brisbane

Tom Rockliff vs the field. $5.75 – $10.00 outlay
This is another risky one. If Rocky can put in his first 4 quarter effort for the year he is a real chance in this matchup. He has been scoring mid 90′s after barely reaching double figures in quarter 1. Scored 107 in his last game vs the Dees.

Goodluck and give me a few of your “hot tips”.

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Here’s my best bets for Round One:

RICHMOND v CARLTON

• Gibbs to beat Judd and Murphy: $2.70
• Deledio to beat Judd, Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, Jackson, Connors, Cotchin: $8.00

ST KILDA v GEELONG

• Goddard to beat Selwood, Hayes, Montagna, Riewoldt, Kelly, Enright, Milburn: $4.60

COLLINGWOOD v PORT ADELAIDE

• Swan to beat Pendlebury, Boak, Thomas, Kornes, Ball, Cassisi, Salopek: $2.00

ADELAIDE v HAWTHORN

• Franklin to beat Mitchell, Vince, Thompson, Doublas, Lewis, Thompson, Johncock: $4.80

BRISBANE v FREMANTLE

• Rockliff to beat Sandilands, Pavlich, Black, Mundy, Broughton, Power, Redden: $6.00

ESSENDON v WESTERN BULLDOGS

• Stanton to beat Boyd, Cross, Watson, Cooney, Griffen, Winderlich, Ryder: $6.50

MELBOURNE v SYDNEY

• Jack to beat Goodes, Green, Sylvia, Grimes, O’Keefe, Bolton, Moloney: $5.50

WEST COAST v NORTH MELBOURNE

• Cox to beat Swallow, Harvey, Priddis, Rawlings, Wells, Rosa, Ebert: $5.50

More markets will come up over the weekend so stay tuned. You can get yourself some extra cash just by using your Dream Team knowledge!

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