Welcome to the Round 7 edition of The Draft Files! Things are drying up in the Free Agency Pool, but hopefully you have enough depth to deal with the carnage being sent our way over the past fortnight. If not, have a close look at some of the options outlined below!

Note: All references to leagues are based on a standard 12-team H2H Ultimate Footy league, with a 5-7-1-5 on-field structure and Captains disabled. All position eligibilities and ownership & drafted statistics are sourced from Ultimate Footy at the time of writing. If your League varies significantly, adjust the advice in this article accordingly.

Scorecard

It’s fair to say that Round 6 was carnage for both salary cap competitions as well as draft-style leagues, and this extended to the fringe players I suggested in last weeks’ Draft Files. We had a disappointing pass rate of 28% from last week’s Under 500, a low percentage which I expect won’t be too rare for the rest of the season, as the value in the Free Agency pool reaches equilibrium. Here’s a quick snapshot of the scorecard from Round 6:

The Round 6 Scorecard – simply click to enlarge.

Obviously, that’s some pretty lacklustre stuff from a bunch of players that we expect more from. Terlich with a career-low blind-sighted me, but Max Bailey’s late withdrawal (something he’s done a few times in the past couple of years) combined with his history of substitutions basically put a thick line through him as a fantasy option heading forward.

On the other hand, I was very happy with the output from Kane Lucas and Brandon Ellis. Both youngsters repaid the faith, and look like excellent long-term options – particularly Ellis, who has the added bonus of being ‘Back’ eligible despite running almost exclusively through the guts recently. With a three-round average of 86 for Lucas and two-round 85.5 for Ellis – hold tight and don’t let go.

Positional Changes/Theory

As you should know by now, every 3 weeks the Ultimate Footy Gods release updated positional eligibilities; usually for those players who have shown a significant shift in their role to date, with solid evidence that it will continue in the future. A few weeks ago I outlined how these nifty little updates can improve your side – here’s a snippet explaining just that:

“Last season I had Hamish Hartlett in my squad as a ‘C’ only. He wasn’t scoring well enough to earn a starting gig in my squad, confined to the bench every week as an emergency. Due to his role in defence for Port, he was updated to B/C status, instantly becoming a Top 3 Defender in my side. By moving him onto the field and removing my worst defender, I was able to gain 20-30 points a week without actually changing my squad.”

This sneaky little manoeuvre is based on the assumption that the midfield exhibits more depth than other positions – which we’re definitely seeing at the moment (with backmen, particularly) and you can see this from the table below. Note: based on standard league configurations (5-7-1-5 starters) and removing LTIs.

As you can see, Defenders are the shallowest position in draft-style competitions. It might not seem like the Midfield is far behind (just 1.3 average points ahead), but with a plethora of Mid/Fwd options available, you can often easily bring in a decent DPP option like Leigh Adams (70.3 avg in L4) rather than someone like Carlisle (64.2 avg but just 49.7 in L3) off your bench to assist.
So, who benefits from these new updates? Below is a list of players who’ve had their statuses upgraded:

We can generally ignore players who’ve had ‘Centre’ eligibility added, because you’d likely be playing these guys in their ‘lower’ position anyway. That leaves the big winners as Corey, Petterd (both not playing this week – ouch!), Macmillan, Picken and Prestia owners, who can now strengthen their backline considerably. With the exception of Prestia, those players were all questionable starters in their original positions, yet will all slot in comfortably into most backlines. The additions of Gawn and Daw to the forward line doesn’t affect us a really – not many would own these pinch-hitters anyway (31% and 29% owned, respectively), but it does have the benefit of providing you with dual cover in the likely scenario that you’d be using them as Ruck insurance.

Under 500

I’m sure I’m not the only one finding it tough to uncover diamonds in the rough that is the Free Agency pool these days, and the following players highlight that phenomenon. Waiver trawling has slowly evolved from being a high-value exercise into a ‘Hail Mary’ mission – many of the players left on the Scrap Heap are unlikely to feature in your squad for too long unless something significant affects their personal situation or you run into a stack of injuries.

I, personally, was one coach left combing the Free Agency Pool this week for a starter (Gibbs, Gilbert and Petterd are the notable absentees from ArmaRedden this week), so I know how much these kinds of things can sneak up on you. If you’re desperate like me this week, here are the players currently under 50% ownership that I’ve earmarked for possible acquisitions.

BAC: B. Smith (B/C, 67.0 avg, 40% owned)

Brodie Smith is the kind of player that’s just as likely to throw out a 50-point score as he is a 90-point total. Fringe players often have that unfortunate quality, but I hold high hopes from the Crows rebounder. He’s been playing defensive roles since coming back from injury and has scored 60 and 74 in those games; but I’ve noticed he’s been named on a wing this week and I’m optimistic that this will translate to a more attacking role soon, and by extension, more fantasy points. Still available in 60% of leagues.

CTR: C. Smith (C, 73 avg, 45% owned)

Like his namesake above, Clay has the tendency to produce low scores, but unlike Brodie, it’s usually due to being substituted. At a glance he only averages 73 points, but his scores when not the substitute are very impressive: 105, 80 and 103. The kid has fantasy written all over him, and it’s interesting to see that he kept his spot this week while other youngsters like Macrae, Stringer and Stevens were omitted ahead of him. If Clay is available, I’d jump on in the hope that he can continue to avoid being subbed out of games.

RUC:  J. Redden (R, 34.5 avg, 15% owned)

The best possible scenario for Redden has come to fruition: he’s been given a game, while both of the ruckmen ahead of him in Round 6 have been dropped (Renouf and Lobbe). Chances are that this little coup isn’t on your fellow coach’s radars, so if you’re looking for a cheeky ruck emergency, then Redden could be your man in the mid-term – provided he performs as the sole ruckman this week.

FWD: C. Dawes (F, 43% owned)

After hearing news of his impending inclusion earlier in the week, I quickly jumped on Dawes in my own league. There is no guarantee that he’ll average enough to become a starter – he could fit in perfectly at the Demons and produce squat – but he has excellent job security and the potential to put up 80-point scores when he’s on-song, and that’s enough for me. He averaged 72 points per game in 2011, which is usually enough for a starter in standard leagues.

DEMONS: M. Shaw (B, 67.0 avg, 26% owned)

Unfortunately Shaw was snapped up in my league, because I would have been all over him in the midst o this rich veign of form. He’s ticking all the boxes; Form  - tick (notched scores of 99 and 88 in the past fortnight), Role – tick (named on the wing after running through the middle recently) and Opposition – massive tick (coming up against the helpless Demons in Round 7). It’s far from a sure thing, but he’s only of the decent options still sneaking around on the scrap heap.

SNEAKY: J. Gwilt (B, 76.0 avg, 24% owned)

As I mentioned earlier, I was looking for a Defender to start this week and I landed on Gwilt. I actually picked him up earlier in the season when I noticed his role had become much looser than in the past (Fisher more lockdown freed him up, perhaps?), but had to let him go when he injured his knee. It was only one game, but 76 points from him was promising and something I hope he can replicate this week against Carlton – particularly with Gilbert on the sidelines, who’s been an effective user for the Saints off half-back lately.

ROUGHIE: T. Adams (C, 66.0 avg, 43% owned)

Taylor Adams is your classic speculative pick. One score of 120 has everyone jumping on in the hope that he will push on with this form, a why not? It’s a long shot, but players like Palmer (87, 104, 88 in his last 3) and Spurr (95, 84 in last two) have shown that it’s possible. A strong outing against the Crows this week will solidify his job security and hopefully have him scoring 80’s in the weeks ahead. He’s definitely capable of it – his last three scores in 2012: 96, 105 and 78.

That’s it from me this week. There’s still a bit of time until lockout, so hit up the comments on here (or @Tbetta9 on Twitter) if you have any last minute Add/Drop or Bench/Play dilemmas. Good luck!

• Learning The Hard Way

The Importance of Bench Cover

Most weeks, we can survive without even considering our bench or emergency players. In those rounds, they may as well be $89k basement priced rookies who probably won’t ever experience the snug fit of an AFL guernsey. In fact, we employed this tactic yearly for our 4^th Ruck slot in the past.

Round 6 showed us just how critical it is to have a strong bench however – those who boasted a combination of Gibbs, Heppell, Waters, Goodes and Pittard can attest to that fact. The teams who avoided donuts were the teams that had the Terlichs, Heaths and Stevensons of the rookie world (not that they did much), and not quick cash options in Docherty, Laird, Hutchins, Frost or Plowman. Job security becomes increasingly vital over the next two months, as getting as many players on the park as possible will be critical to staying competitive over the MBRs.

Brent Stanton is a Tease

This is less of a realisation than a reminder. Last year he fooled us into a false sense of security and reliability with an average of 134 DT points in his first 8 games; only to regress significantly by posting an average of just 88 for the rest of the year. In 2013 he’s decided to stab us in the back again, this time with the knife being in the form of yet another soft tissue injury. At least he’s still priced at a healthy $555k (despite dropping about $27k this week), so finding a suitable replacement coughMurphycough shouldn’t be too difficult if need be.

Holding Has Some Value

Before the season started, I assumed that the increase in trades would eliminate all these ‘hold or trade’ dilemmas, even for the fiddly one week injuries. We’re seeing so far that it’s not as black and white as that now that we’re under fire – although there still is a huge variation in the strategies that coaches are using to deal with these short-term injuries and suspensions. I know a lot of coaches that traded out at least one and sometimes two of Heppell and Gibbs, despite supposedly one week injuries, while others (including myself) held them both. Same goes for Goodes.

I think the way the weekend turned out, it was a win for Team Hold in most cases. Unless you got on a select few Premium defenders, the sideways trades backfired violently, with Birchall, Hartlett, Burgoyne, Dixon, Grimes and especially Waters all failing quite spectacularly our time of need. Of course, the book hasn’t been fully written yet and it could be a completely different story if Gibbs (apparently missing another game at least) and Heppell aren’t back for the next chapter.

Justin Westhoff the morning after.

Once a Hack, Always a Hack

The gap between Westhoff’s best and worst is excessively large – he’s the AFL version of Music Video Katy Perry and No Make-Up Kate Perry. In the end it just averages out to make one ordinary player. It’s just goes to show that players rarely become ‘superstars’ overnight – the same goes for other early bolters like Liberatore,  Howlett and Mullett.

Compromising for the Bye Rounds

The MBRs are going to come into every trade decision we make over the new few weeks, whether we like it or not. It’s very rare that our desired trade target suits our personal bye situation perfectly (because that would just be too easy), so it comes down to a compromise. Do we ignore the bye structure and compromise our teams over one or more Bye rounds; or do we compromise on personnel and bring in a player that you don’t want as dearly, but helps you out over a difficult bye period? I don’t believe there’s a clear-cut solution here– at least, there’s no evidence of a superior strategy – so all I can say is, good luck.

• Polling and Extended Trolling

3. Stevie J (136)

There’s a new Sheriff in the forward line, and he goes by the name of Stevie J. Move over Buddy, Goodes and Pav, the super-premium forward is now the slick Mr. Johnson. He had a late start to the season so very few coaches have cashed in on his 119 point average thus far, but given that his percentage ownership has already doubled in less than a day after the Round 6 lockout, I think we can expect him to become much more relevant.

2. Shaw / Hibberd / Hanley

As I alluded to in the preface, only a select few of our Premium backmen replacements justified their price tags this week. As much as he is a human headache, there was no doubting the timing of Shaw’s 107 points this weekend, who was slightly cheaper than a lot of the more popular options at $405k. Also in the ballpark was Hibberd (105), who’s enjoying a very fantasy-friendly role out of defence this season, which has resulted in a jump of over 20 points per game from his previous two years in the AFL. Hanley was the other rare success story in his return from suspension, scoring 96 points despite a blitzkrieg from the Swans.

1. Matt Jones (108)

Janitor of the Year (pipping the great Jimmy Bartel) goes to Matt Jones, who took out the trash with a huge 91-point second half – boosting him to a team-high 108 points for the game. Unfortunately I didn’t see the match live, but in my imagination he was bursting packs with Judd-like power and hunting the footy with Ablett-like fervour. This is a massive total from a guy many had to rely on this week, particularly those who took advantage of DPP and moved Gibbs/Goodes into the guts. That score should keep the cash flowing in the near future, and with a favourable R12 bye, he could be around for a little while longer…

Honourable Mentions: Dangerfield (145), Bartel (138), M. Murphy (124), Priddis (124), D. Thomas (121), S. Selwood (119), N. Riewoldt (117), K. Cornes (108), D. Martin (106), Lucas (102), Wellingham (102), B. Ellis (85) , Vlastuin (78).

The best “Worst Team’ ever

I don’t want to dwell too much on the Trolling section this week, because frankly, it depresses me. Particularly the part where it says Beau Waters was a late withdrawal – that killed my spirit. I think whenever you trade in a donut, you deserve a little introspection punctuated with large servings of ice cream and the gloomier beats of Coldplay.

Premiums like Watson, Cotchin, and Birchall really sting as well, because they haven’t skipped a beat this year. It’s like coming home and finding your sweet, innocent girlfriend playing naked twister with your elderly neighbour on your living room floor – if it were that girl of questionable morals you used to date in high school (Stanton or Shaw, basically) you might be prepared for it. But this knocks this wind out of you, because you never saw it coming. So, as impressive as that side looks on paper, it only managed 1090 this week, with Watson a strong Captain choice against the lowly Giants. Wow.

A very relevant footnote: I hate taggers almost as much as I hate the first verse of Nickleback’s Photograph.

• Tbetta’s Tweets

Given how topical Round 6 was, I’ve decided to focus on the popular issues we’re all facing in this week’s Bullets, with an extended Tweets section. I’m stripping back all the bells and whistles and trying to get to the heart of what Round 7 will be all about for us DT coaches. If you have any queries of your own, be sure to flick them my way at @Tbetta9 at your leisure.

You’ve nailed a solid bunch there, and your implication is correct – we’re not seeing the same Super-Premium stuff from our Super-Premiums as we have in past seasons. I think early injuries to Beams and Boyd have contributed to that, but the main culprit has been both coaches and players taking tagging to a whole other level. They’ve been killer this year, and coaches will continue to send them out as long as they’re so effective.

There’re not many others that get my unconditional trust. Marc Murphy is a very solid acquisition in my eyes, notching 111+ in his last four. It feels weird to say it, but Kane Cornes is someone that I’m going to have to consider bringing in – he just gets too much of the football to ignore, but I’ll need to see what he can do against the Collingwood’s, Geelong’s and Sydney’s of the competition before being fully convinced. Leigh Montagna is a sneaky option, bucking the trend of ordinariness from the again Saints and posting a low of 99 in his five games. Still, he doesn’t inspire the same feelings that I have for guys like Swan and Cox.

At the end of the day, guys like Watson, J. Selwood and Boyd (Swallow, Mitchell and Cotchin are getting close) have proven time and time again that they can be trusted, save for a few hiccups over a long season. If you want a stress-free addition, you have to look at those Premiums first.

Great question, and one that’s super relevant now that Gibbs and Waters have already been confirmed to miss. Juggling both BE’s and scoring power, here’s my top 3, in order:

1.       Pearce Hanley ($455,000, 122 BE)

I’d be all over the Irish Lion if I didn’t already have him, and that’s despite him looking like something you’d be likely to see in Lord of the Rings. He seems to score at will, with consistent totals in the mark and tackle categories suggesting that his form is more lasting than fleeting. Hanley has a low of just 87 in his four full matches, averaging 103.8 DT points in those games – pretty commanding numbers for a defender.

2.       Heath Scotland ($461,300, 103 BE)

He’s getting old, but Scotland has perfected the perfect fantasy game. No accountability, all uncontested goodness. Carlton has a naughty little run coming up (Saints, Port Lions and Giants), and those are the kind of teams he eats for breakfast whenever he’s not smashing skulls in pubs. DPP can’t hurt either.

3.       Heath Shaw ($417,700, 44 BE)

Consider this third place by disqualification. Hartlett is sore, Birchall is bleeding cash and I don’t have any faith in Adcock or Duffield just yet. Shaw has been his usual hot-and-cold self (two scores in the 60’s, 3 in the noughties), but he’s pretty good value for what he’s dishing up.

It’s time to sell Westhoff, simple as that. I just hope there isn’t another barrage of bad-luck barbs in store for us in the Thursday Teams, because he’s a must-cut for mine. Even though he leaked a massive $50k this week, he’s also fulfilled his purpose – he filled the void for us until a fallen Premo came along, making us $70k and travelling at an average of 84.8 in that time (assuming you got him after Round 2). It’s hard to be too mad at the fuzzy spud when you think of it like that.

At the moment, I’m finding it hard to look past Dale Thomas ($412k, 68 BE). You make a sneaky $55k-odd profit, and Daisy looks ripe for the picking; particularly if Bucks continues to hand him that HBF role which landed him a 121-point total this week.

The other option is Stevie J ($544k, 54 BE), who I’ve already mentioned has been on a tear lately. My main stumbling block is that he’s $130k more expensive than Daisy, which equates to roughly 26 average points. You wouldn’t say that Stevie J would be 26 points better than Thomas per game on average, but with a BE of 54, Johnson won’t be getting any cheaper any time soon either. Basically, if you want him it has to be now, or just settle for Daisy (or even a Wellingham/Robinson for under $425k) instead.

Yep, as I mentioned in last week’s Bullet’s, Priddis will be an excellent injury-affected fallen Premium after this round. He’s already cheap enough at $414k based on his output so far, but even with a 90-point score, he’ll dip just below $400k next week – the perfect time to pounce. He’s ultra-consistent as evidenced by his log sheet which reads 98, 93, 98, 89, 124; even if he does lack the star-power of other midfielders. He’ll definitely come into my side over the next fortnight, barring any more bizarre scenarios unfolding.

And yes, Wines will be just small change away from Priddis next week, but I’m not so sure that we should be rushing to ship him out. He’s produced a low of just 72 in his first 6 career games – excellent numbers for a rookie, and seeing as most teams are still playing two or three on our fields in the mids… Well, it’d be nice to keep him there. I’m more looking at a Stevenson/Heath à Priddis manoeuvre next week (via DPP, as many coaches loaded up on this week), or maybe even sacrificing some like Neade instead. He’ll be $250k or so next week, and as only he’s sitting there as my bench emergency each week anyway, I’m no exactly losing too much.

• Binoculars and Footnotes

With so many urgent trades to cover (thanks Backline, Westhoff and Stanton), there’s not a whole lot of scope to make any ground-breaking moves. It feels like the good old days – making vanilla trades to sidestep pain forced upon us. There are, however, still a few things we need to keep in mind for this weekend and beyond:

Monday game

Welcome to the start of four-day weekends. The Carlton-Saints clash on Monday will spark a series of unusual game slots, with an Eagles-Richmond game on a Monday in R10, The Queen’s Birthday match a week later, with a pesky Thursday game in Round 14…. Not to mention the MBRs – can’t wait pause not.

The obvious issue with this is that we won’t know the Carlton and St. Kilda squads before lockout this week. It could be a nervous wait if you’re relying on any of Wright/Saunders/Lee and they find themselves on an extended bench this week, and the same goes for Gibbs if they haven’t 100% ruled him out by then.  Be vigilant people!

Beau Waters

I don’t know if I can bring myself to talk about Beau in detail at the moment, but an unavoidable result of my 11^th hour trade last week is that I’ll need to make a call on whether to Hold or Trade either way. In pros-and-cons format:

Scarily, I’m leaning towards holding. The key point here is that my team doesn’t get any better in the long run if I sideways trade him… More “short term pain for long term gain”, which I really hope doesn’t become my mantra.

My Boy Scoots

I wanted to but Scooter in the Polling section, but I thought that was a bit excessive. On the other hand, I can’t let my boy go unmentioned in his current form! How’s this for some tasty numbers; Selwood is now the 4^th highest averaging player competition-wide, going at 113.7 per game which improves to 131 per game in the last 4 rounds – 8 points clear of the second-best in Kane Cornes.

Why has he been so successful this season? His elite tackling numbers put him head and shoulders above those with similar disposal numbers. He’s averaging 9 per game – which is even more than his record-setting 8.1 tackles per game in 2011. To put it in perspective, one player who has almost identical stats to Scooter elsewhere is Callan Ward, yet he’s averaging over 20 points less! Stay hungry Scoots!

Anyway, that’s all from me folks! I’m sure there are some players and issues that have slipped through the cracks in a hectic week; so I guess it’s lucky we have the comments system – let me know below!

PS. Congratulation to my charges in the DT TALK WA League – still sitting atop the Leagues ladder! Keep it up fellas.

Note: All references to leagues are based on a standard 12-team H2H Ultimate Footy league, with a 5-7-1-5 on-field structure and Captains disabled. All position eligibilities and ownership & drafted statistics are sourced from Ultimate Footy at the time of writing. If your League varies significantly, adjust the advice in this article accordingly.

Scorecard

With no Draft Files last week, I threw out a handful of possible Add options on Twitter (@Tbetta9) as a cheap substitute. As we’ll come to expect, the results were very hit-and-miss – if they weren’t, these players wouldn’t be in the Free Agent pool after all.

The Round 5 Scorecard – simply click to enlarge.

Of that lot, I’d definitely be holding onto Palmer and Winderlich as a priority. I actually drafted Palmer as a speculative starter (wayward emergency at worst) in my personal league, and after a rocky start with the selection committee at the Giants, he’s knocked out two very bankable scores in a row. Hopefully, this will continue in the near future, despite the Giants running into some stiffer competition than the Demons and Suns in the near future.

Winderlich (rested this week) is about as durable as Shaun Higgins, but it’s very worthwhile taking the risk on his faulty body given that he’s averaged 82 or more in the three seasons where he played over 12 games. The man just needs a clear run at it, and there’s every chance that could happen in 2013.

The Replacements

Taylor Walker (ACL)

The second that Taylor Walker tragically injured his knee, things got a whole lot more difficult for the Adelaide Football Club. The man who would have picked up the slack in this situation – Kurt Tippett, once the talented foil for the man affectionately known as Tex – is now enjoying a paid vacation on the East Coast. It’s fair to say that Jenkins, however talented he may be, doesn’t inspire the same adjectives that could be used to describe Tex or Tippett; words like dominant, influential or unstoppable. He’s going to need some help, and this is going to result in a boost in point to the luck individual who provides the relief. But who?

Thomas Lynch (90 and 82 in last two, 30% owned) has been scoring well in the past fortnight, but don’t expect his role to change too much. Lynch is much better suited to a free-moving, third-tall type role than a key forward post, so expect the Crows to look elsewhere. Andy Otten (66.4 avg, 40% owned) filled the void when Tex turned his knee, and performed admirably, kicking 3 goals to go with 11 marks for 96 fantasy points. As impressive as this quick-patch was, Otten’s best position is deep in the backline and that’s where the Crows ideally want him. Shaun McKernan (9% owned) is the heir apparent, and might be worth an speculative add before the Thursday Teams come out and his perceived value skyrockets. McKernan kicked 5 goals in the SANFL at the weekend, and although he hasn’t been a great scorer in the past, he also hasn’t played in the absence of first-choice forwards in Walker and Tippett before.

Alan Toovey (ACL)

With Toovey going down with yet another ACL injury and Maxwell still on the sidelines, Brent Macaffer (60 avg, 21% owned) was promptly switched to defence from his customary third-tall forward role. He’s been ordinary in that capacity to date, but I think a move to the third key defender could get him into the action, and critically, out of direct competition with Cloke and Lynch for supply in the forward half. Who knows, if he can sustain this role for a few weeks, he could even become back eligible in the near future.

Mitch Clark (Foot)

It’s probably the understatement of the year to say that Melbourne will miss Mitch Clark for as long as he’s unavailable, which is likely to be at least 8 weeks. Max Gawn (69.5 avg, 21% owned) has been serviceable in his absence, but such a showing won’t reap the same rewards against tougher sides than Brisbane. There’s still a gaping hole that needs filling there. Although I’ve traditionally proclaimed that he more resembles a boiled potato than a footballer, a fit Chris Dawes (40% owned) would certainly help the Demons’ plight. My mail is that Dawes is 50-50 to return to the big time after a successful return in the VFL at the weekend; regardless, he’ll be back next week at the latest and he warrants a anticipative add if he’s somehow a Free Agent in your particular league. I give the man a bit of a hard time, but it’s easy to forget that Dawes has averaged at least 65 for each of the past four seasons – start-worthy in standard 12-team leagues.

Under 500

BAC: Dean Terlich (B, 69.8 avg, 36% owned)

With 85 points against Lions last week, Terlich has boosted his average to almost 70 points, with a low of 63 in his last three. I watched the Lions game, and he was a designated rebounder for the Dees, used for the kick-outs as well as run-and-carry type extractions from defence. As a mature-age recruit, there is less chance of a sub vest and inconsistency than your traditional first-year player, so acquire with confidence. Obviously, job security is at an all-time high at the struggling Demons – it’s his scoring you’ll have to sweat on.

CTR: C. Bird (C/F, 38.3 avg, 39% owned)

If last week’s ‘Under 500’ Mid suggestions in Palmer and MacMillan are still available, I’d be acquiring either of that pair as a priority. Otherwise, the undervalued Bird is a definite consideration, especially with his DPP forward eligibility. He scored 79 in his first game without being subbed last weekend, despite tagging Dal Santo his main priority. He’s an immediate sub concern, but he’s worth possibly stashing on the bench until we can better gauge his role and scoring ability in the long term.

RUC:  M. Bailey (R, 67 avg, 46% owned)

I suggested Bailey as ruck cover a couple of weeks ago, and he chose that weekend to get himself subbed out for 44. We can’t forget that score followed an 81 and preceded 86 then 77 fantasy points at the weekend, so it’s evident that he can score when left on the park. A solid back-up long-term.

FWD: J. Hill (F, 65.6 avg, 43% owned)

As I implied a fortnight ago, Hill is a massive front runner. He’s only averaged 65.6 for the season, but the games that he really produced were against the Demons (82) and Port Adelaide (83). I mentioned the Eagles cakewalk run over the next six rounds (Bulldogs, Lions, Roos, Giants, Tigers then Saints) – Josh Hill could host a little points party over the next month and a half, and hopefully you’re invited.

DEMONS: K.Lucas (C, 71.4 avg, 39% owned)

The general feeling with Lucas is that he’s been disappointing so far in 2013, but a glance at his fantasy stats show otherwise. His last four totals have read 76, 78, 80 and 76, showing excellent consistency in that time. Given that teams score between 15-35% better against the Demons than other clubs, we can be optimistic that Lucas’ output will spike this week – but get him in regardless!

SNEAKY: R. Petterd (F, 67.5 avg, 38% owned)

I’m hardly going out on a limb here, but Ricky Petterd will be awarded extra Back eligibility in the tri-weekly position updates. If your team is anything like mine, it’s lacking depth in the backline. Petterd can help; and at worst, he’s excellent B/F coverage off the bench. 87 points last week against Freo is encouraging for those coaches who might want to play him this week.

ROUGHIE: B. Ellis (B, 36.5 avg, 35% owned)

When Brandon Ellis is vested, he’s a total week-killer. When he’s allowed to roam free, he’s Birchall-Lite, racking up possessions across half back as the Tigers utilise his elite speed and disposal. Will he continue to avoid the vest? That’s a difficult assertion to make given that he was vested four games in a row, but Round 5’s effort certainly didn’t do him any harm. I’d speculatively bring him in and stash him on the bench until you’re more certain about his JS, one way or the other.

As always, if you have any questions/feedback on the world of Draft-style fantasy, hit me up on Twitter at Tbetta9 or in the comments below. Good luck!

• Round 5 Clichés

“When it rains, it pours” – We’ve been blessed with a reasonably clear run injury and suspension-wise in the first month of fantasy AFL, and I’m surely not the only one who felt like it was merely the calm before the storm. While Round 5 unleashed a cyclone on our Dream Teams, it was the pinpoint nature of this barrage of bad luck aimed towards our backlines that will have us at panic stations with our trades this week.

“You’ve got to risk it to get the biscuit” – Swanny’s 120 was looped by many coaches, and most took the ‘safe’ option of points in the bank. Yes, those who chose to take a punt on Ablett (131), Rockliff (125) and Stevie J (141) were rewarded with a small boost in points; but it was more the bold decision not to loop Swan that benefited a lot of coaches. With Pittard a late withdrawal, anyone who had Hanley or Stevenson as a Loophole Captain risked it and only got a soggy biscuit in return.

“She says they miss the old Drake, girl don’t tempt me” – Replace the ‘she’ with ‘DT coaches’ and ‘Drake’ with ‘Justin Westhoff’ and the lyrics of Headlines kind of applies to the bearded Port forward. Once an inconsistent underachiever, the Hoff teased us with a 128-point average over the first four weeks of the season but drifted back into his old ways in Round 5.

“You get what you pay for” – This was particularly true with both upgrades this week. For those tossing up between Murphy and Ablett in the midfield this week, Smurph would have earned you 115 points, and finding the extra coin for Ablett was rewarded with the extra points with his 131 against the Giants. Likewise, those who were too cheap to snap up Mayes (111) and went with Evans (67) instead still get a great cash cow, but miss out on a short-term forward line starter and the additional 20-30 points that will deliver each week.

• Polling and Trolling

3. Fresh Rooks

Sam Mayes (111) and Michael Evans (67) were the big bubble rookies leading into Round 5, and both fulfilled their duties admirably at the weekend. At base draftee price, Evans shot up a huge $72k in his first price rise and looks like being a fast-maturing cash cow who’ll sit there fattening on the bench until you need to cull him for a quick cash influx. Mayes was a bit harder on the hip-pocket, but rewarded suitors with a straight-up $80k price-hike; with scores of 95, 75 and 111 in his first three games, Sam May is a must-start rookie in the forward line at this point.

2. Nick Riewoldt (153)

I’m not ashamed to admit that I was one of the many Riewoldt doubters prior to season 2013, with age and relevancy (due to St. Kilda’s seemingly inevitable demise) two massive hurdles that needed overcoming to be a legitimate DT option this year. His workman-like performance in Wellington totally contradicted that theory, boosting his seasonal average to 107, with a low of just 82. I’m not 100% convinced on him just yet (this may be due to my wariness of key forwards in general), but with very few Premium forward options to choose from these days, he should at least be firmly on your radar.

1. Scott Selwood (136)

Those who follow me on Twitter or tracked the Deck of DT this preseason know that I was all over Scooter to break-out this year after showing some encouraging signs in 2012. After the first two rounds (71 and 87) I was eerily quiet on the subject, wondering where it had all gone wrong. Since then, he’s posted scores of 142, 127 and 136 to be the highest-averaging players in the last three weeks. The secret to his success? At least 26 touches and 8 tackles a game in that time.

Honourable Mentions: Stevie J (141), Zorko (120), Dixon (119), Hartlett (116), O’Meara (115), S. Byrnes (110), D. Martin (99), Josh J Kennedy (98), M. Hibberd (97), Stevenson (82), Priddis (4).

3. Jasper Pittard (LW)

In a normal week, who cares if Pittard misses? Historically, we’ve been able to throw a blanket over Pittard/Stevenson/Heath, and with most coaches having bench cover, it wouldn’t have been a big deal at all. Enter ANZAC Day and the opportunity for a little Loophole action, and suddenly Pittard’s tiny bit of soreness becomes a huge issue for fantasy coaches. Personally, I had Hanley © with Heath as an emergency, leaving me weeping over a donut for Pittard and still 82 points behind the rest of the competition, thanks to Stevenson notching 82 unused points on my bench.

2. Bryce Gibbs (54)

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Gibbs substitution was just a sly player management manoeuvre by Malthouse. We know players battle soreness and niggles all season, and I’m willing to bet my left jubbly that Gibbs would have pushed through a little bit of tightness if the game was against a Collingwood or a Geelong, and not against an out-of-sorts Adelaide – even if they were 30 points up at the time. With Melbourne coming up in Round 6, there’s no denying the incentive for Carlton to gift one of their stars an easy fortnight under the guise of ‘hamstring strain’. Luckily, we were all burned by his 54 points because every Barry Norman has him, but he does put us in a bit of hot water with other issues pressing issues in defence this weekend.

1. Justin Westhoff (45)

Aside from a sanity-restoring 45 points (I was starting to doubt whether I had any grasp of the game of AFL; Westhoff leading the competition in DT points was utterly bizarre), Westhoff has put the heat on his owners this week. Do we hold him, writing off this game as a one-off given his blistering early form? Or do we trade him, as his BE has climbed to 150 this week, and capitalise on the $121k he’s already made us? Interestingly, we might ultimately be saved/prevented from making a difficult call where he’s concerned thanks to incessant backline drama.

Dishonourable Mentions: Priddis (4), L. Brown (20), Docherty (21), Blicavs (22), Lee (30), Kerridge(30), Hutchins (31), Rowe(31), T. Walker  (35), Hodge (61), Franklin (62), Dangerfield (71).

• Trade Ramblings

BACKLINE DRAMA

Okay, no more mucking around, let’s get all serious up in here. We all have backline issues, so that’ll be a big focus area for the masses. So let’s recap the carnage, in Bullet form:

• Gibbs. Hamstring, 1-2 weeks
• Hanley. Back from suspension, Test on knee though.
• Goodes. Offered 2 weeks for errant elbow.
• Pittard. Test on his boo-boo.
• Heath. Test on sore leg.
• Stevenson. JS issues – was initially dropped last week.

Then, to add insult to injury, we have very few promising rookie options that could possibly come in for a Goodes/Pittard if you needed to avoid a donut:

• Laird. 81 last week, but still vest/JS issues. Best option at this stage.
• Docherty. Sub last week (21), huge JS issues with Hanley possibly returning.
• Vlastuin. Only played the one game (51), Premium priced ($148k) and JS issues with Morris/Conca returning on the horizon.
• Saunders/Clark. Only played the one game, big scoring and JS concerns.
• Frost. Will he come in for his third game given Toovey’s knee injury? Obvious scoring deficiencies though.

IT’S ALL ABOUT SECURITY

There’s a huge element of risk with all those guys. My thinking is that with our downgrades over the next month or so, our primary concern should be Job Security. This is because 1. They’ll likely be our later upgrades (after the rookies that have already fattened for us, ideally), so they need to be around for longer to make as much cash as possible. 2. We’ll need every troop we can get over the MBR’s. Yes, the Byes still exist, and we’re getting to the point where the players we’ll be bringing in now will very likely be around for them.

If that’s the case… we’re in a tight spot. I’ve had JS concerns for Docherty ever since he missed out on Round 1 selection, and while Vlastuin looks like he can mix it with the big boys, I’m not exactly thrilled about the prospect of parting with $150k-odd for someone who may not even get a third game. Laird might have to be a reluctant inclusion this week, taking the gamble on his long-term job security for some short-term relief. We have no excuse for donuts now with two trades per week.

PREMIUM SWAP

For this reason, we may need to consider trading Gibbs to cover a donut instead of searching for other rookies that just aren’t there. Like last week, Birchall ($527k, 111.8avg) and Hartlett ($458k, 96.2 avg) are still excellent options, while also consider Gibbs’ teammate in Scotland who has a BE of 116 – that’s a little high,  but remember that the Blues are running into Melb, St. K, Port, Lions and GWS in their next five, and you’d think Scotland ($473k) would slut it up against that lot.

RIPE FOR THE PICKING

Even outside of the backline, our Bubble Boys are thinning out fast. Max Gawn ($108,500, -73BE) could be a great “downgrade” option for Blicavs, who’s maxed out at $161k with a BE of 44 this week. He’s clearly having trouble reaching that figure, let alone exceeding it. MID/FWD hybrids Paparone ($107,200, -50 BE) and Kerridge ($108,500 -43 BE) were two rookies that I was optimistic about last week, but both were lukewarm at best in Round 5. Lee and O’hAilpin are both on the bubble as well, but I’d probably rather watch that Sydney vs St. Kilda game on loop for a week than trade those spuds into my side.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED

In a perfect world, I’d be engineering luxury trades like replacing Dangerfield or cashing in on Westhoff, but with all this backline Hollywood crap it’s looking increasingly unlikely. This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be looking to improve out teams – in dark DT times in the past, I’ve always looked to galvanise my side, trying to turn a negative into a positive. Here are a couple of scenarios I’m contemplating in the next Bullet:

• Galvanise

1. Pittard/Goodes OUT Laird/Premium IN (+ cash)

The classic downgrade/upgrade move will be a very popular one for coaches, particularly those lucky souls who have kept some change in the bank for a rainy day just like today. The downgrade will basically leave you with $370k plus whatever you have to find a replacement to your liking.

2. Two of Pittard/Heath/Goodes OUT Laird and Docherty/Vlastuin IN

The double downgrade will be a strong consideration for those with nothing in the bank and a desire to avoid trading out copping donuts while keeping Gibbs. Thursday Teams will help you make the choice between Docherty and Vlastuin, with Doch the preferred option on a pure capitalist basis.

3. Two of Pittard/Heath/Goodes OUT Laird and Ellis IN

This particular scenario is a little out of left-field, but there’s no doubting the value that Brandon Ellis can present if he can just avoid the sub vest long-term. The first month average of just 24 was the expected product of being subbed in each game, but he was unleashed in Round 5 and look what he produced – 86 points. At $217k, is it worth thinking of him as an expensive rookie and getting on board?

4. Underperforming MID/Pittard OUT Laird/Premium DEF IN

This is my favourite trade proposition because it embraces the magic of DPP and allows you to make your team better while avoiding donuts. I’m seriously considering trading out my underperforming Dangerfield for a Premium Defender (Birchall, Hartlett, Waters, etc.), via the Dual Position of Gibbs. If Pittard is out, he makes way for Laird ahead of Goodes, meaning I’m able to keep both Gibbs and Goodes, who I regard as long-term team members at this stage, on the books while dodging zeros. Later on, I’ll trade out Stevenson/Heath for a midfielder of some sort, DPP switching Gibbs back into defence where he belongs.

• The Future

I mentioned earlier the need to sit back and take a look at the big picture, so let’s refresh ourselves on a few things to keep in mind for our squad from a long-term perspective:

Byes Approaching

It’s very easy to forget about the Byes this year with the new ‘Best 18’ rule, but it’s important to remember that the new system is simply a bandaid and not a cure. It will still require forethought, skill, luck and often sacrifice to manoeuvre through these without copping a donut, and now’s the time to start thinking ahead before you’re forced into a course of action you’d rather not take, sort of like the Saw movies.

A quick glance tells me that my side is structured 11-8-11, which from last year we would know it a bit too front-ended. Hence, I’ll be looking to offload a few Round 11 rookies in the future – it’s nice to see that Port and WBD will take that week off, putting Goodes and the Portlets (not a band, as far as I know) towards the front of the fantasy abattoir line.

Busy Bees at the MRP

Don’t forget that the Match Review Panel has already unleashed its fury, condemning fantasy relevant stars Brett Goodes (2 weeks) and Nat Fyfe (1 week) to the sidelines, while Matty Boyd received a reprimand.

ACLs

What’s going on with the AFL and crucial knee ligaments these days?! We had another wave of ACL injuries this week, with Bradley, Toovey and Taylor Walker all rupturing their knees just this weekend. Add in existing ACLs to players like Suckling, Menzel, Morabito and even that poor goal umpire (I honestly felt so bad for laughing at the time, that I donated to charity), and it’s shaping up to become an epidemic that rivals AIDS in the 80’s. Probably. For both our fantasy and AFL teams, let’s all cross our fingers and toes that no-one else is consigned to what is normally a full season out of the sport we all love; but mostly Dream Team.

Priddis and Daisy Watch

Priddis’ hair has proven to provide minimal upside in the safety department, knocked out in the very early stages of a game for the second successive season. At this rate, he’ll dip to around $360k in just a fortnight! I’m a big fan of acquiring the ‘big dogs’ of DT as soon as possible, but every now and then a bargain like this comes along that I just can’t refuse – I didn’t last year when I brought him in, and I never regretted it! The frizzy-haired workhorse has averaged 93 or more for the past 4 seasons, if you need any extra convincing to get on board.

Meanwhile, Dale Thomas is still working into his best form (65 in Round 5), sustaining his price drop. Round 8 for under $380k is looking tasty, keep up the fantasy-considerate form Daisy!

• Footnotes

It’s time I gave a massive shout out to my boys in the DT TALK WA league, who’s currently the Number 1 league in the universe! That’s a huge effort to everyone involved, and a tough gig for the other competitors in the DT Talk State League Challenge to try and chase us down.

That’s all from me this week folks, and I might I just add, how awesome is 44 Trades turning out to be?! We’re constantly considering trades every week, we’re using guilt-free trades to avoid donuts, we’re not getting stuck with the fantasy skidmarks we were fooled into picking in our starting squads – it’s a wide-smile thumbs up from me so far!

What trades are you looking at doing this week? Which Fallen Premiums are on your radar in the future? As usually, let me know in the comments! Remember to keep them relevant though – head to the weekly ‘My Team’ post here for help on your individual side.

ESSENDON vs COLLINGWOOD
MCG, Thursday April 25th, 2.40PM

Essendon

B: M.Hibberd 1, C. Hooker 26, M.Baguley 46
HB: B.Stanton 5,J.Carlisle 22, B.Goddard 9
C: D.Heppell 21, J.Watson 4, C.Dempsey 15
HF: J.Merrett 20, D.Hille 19, S.Gumbleton 3
F: K.Hardingham 34, S.Crameri 12, A.Davey 29
Foll: T.Bellchambers 2, B.Howlett 40, J.Winderlich 8
I/C: D.Zaharakis 11, D.Myers 23, H.Hocking 39, T.Colyer 32

Emerg: N.Lovett-Murray 42, J.Melksham 17, T.Pears 16

In: K.Hardingham, T.Colyer, S.Crameri
Out: M.Hurley (ankle), T.Pears (omitted), J.Melksham (omitted)

Collingwood

B: N.Brown 16, A.Toovey 34, B.Reid 20
HB: M.Clarke 9, H.Shaw 39, H.O’Brien 8
C: S.Sidebottom 22, D.Swan 36, D.Thomas 13
HF: J.Elliott 19, T.Cloke 32, Q.Lynch 21
F: B.Sinclair 28, T.Goldsack 6, S.Dwyer 41
Foll: B.Hudson 25, S.Pendlebury 10, J.Blair 11
I/C: A.Fasolo 1, J.Russell 2, B.Macaffer 3, P.Seedsman 40

Emerg: J.Witts 15, J.Thomas 24, B. Kennedy 27

In: T Goldsack
Out: J.Thomas (omitted)

ST. KILDA vs SYDNEY SWANS
Wellington, Thursday 25th April, 7.50pm

St Kilda

B: N.Wright 34, S.Fisher 25, S.Gilbert 19
HB: S.Dempster 24, D.Roberton 17, J.Geary 14
C: L.Hayes 7, C.Jones 4, S.Ross 6
HF: D.Armitage 20, R.Stanley 28, N.Dal Santo 26
F: A.Saad 21, N.Riewoldt 12, J.Saunders 35 ($102,700 DEF/MID)
Foll: B.McEvoy 5, J.Steven 3, L.Montagna 11
I/C: T.Dennis-Lane 8, T.Lee 9, J. Koschitzke 23, B.Murdoch 30 ($102,700 FWD)

Emerg: A.Siposs 2, T.Hickey 1, F.Ray 22

In: J.Koschitzke, S.Dempster, T.Lee, B.Murdoch, J.Saunders
Out: S.Milne (suspended), F.Ray (omitted), B.Maister (hand), T.Milera (omitted), T.Simpkin (omitted)

Sydney Swans

B: D.Rampe 43, H.Grundy 39, N.Smith 40
HB: M.Mattner 29, T.Richards 25, N.Malceski 9
C: K.Jack 15, R.O’Keefe 5, L.Jetta 32
HF: J.Bolton 24, S.Reid20, D.Hannebery 4
F: M.Pyke 38, A.Goodes 37, B.McGlynn 21
Foll: S.Mumford 41, J.Kennedy 12, J.McVeigh 3
I/C: T.Armstrong 19, C.Bird 14, A.Everitt 13, L.Parker 26

Emerg: M.Morton 10, T.Walsh 17, J. White 18

In: C.Bird, A.Everitt
Out: L. Roberts-Thomson (knee), Morton (omitted)

• Things I Learnt in Round 4

1. Keep Calm and Lock Swan. The fantasy pig showed we have nothing to fear when we back him in with the ‘C’, even if it takes a while to get him oinking. His 119-point average is only second to Stanton (124 avg) out of the midfielders we would have considered Premiums before Round 1.

2. It’s a pain in the neck trying to pick which rookies to play on the field in the next month or two. The Portlets are all over the shop, personified by the fact that Pittard had 28 last week but rebounded with 96 in Round 4. Other popular rooks like Viney and Whitfield have shown a wide range between their best and their worst, while up forward, Neade, Macaffer and Dwyer seem like perennial substitute options. It feels like Russian Roulette sometimes, but with much more dire consequences…

3. Ablett is still better than most AFL footballers with one arm tied behind his back.

4. Brendon Goddard has feelings.

5. It’s a great feeling when you keep the faith and are rewarded. Personally, I was close to ‘fixing up’ Dangerfield and Scooter prior to Round 3, but they’ve responded since I kept the faith – particularly Selwood, who’s notched scores of 147 and 127 in the last fortnight.

• Polling and Trolling

3. Mid Rooks

Generally speaking, it was another fantastic week for our midfield rookies. Wines continued his fantasy dominance with 101 DT points and finds himself an incredible $159k dearer than he was a fortnight ago! Not far behind was mature-age Demon Matt Jones with 92, which gives him a BE of -47 thanks to a solid 86 last weekend still in his rolling average. Crouch joined that party with 88 points of his own, as did the highly-touted Lachie Whitfield with 86. The biggest winner of them all was Brett Goodes however, making up for a lacklustre effort last week with a stat-stuffed 115 points in Round 4; he’s shaping up to be a keeper at this rate, scoring 82 or more in three of his four outings.

2. Birchall (151)

With Suckling out for the season, I always assumed Birchall would have less freedom as a result. I couldn’t have been more wrong. He’s been the prime mover out of defence for the Hawks thus far, averaging over 31 touches and almost 120 DT points per match. Hawthorn’s run only gets easier coming into the MBRs, so getting Birch should prove increasingly difficult the longer you leave it.

1. Stanton (130)

Most of the adjectives we’ve use to describe Stanton in the fantasy world traditionally haven’t been very flattering, but how’s this for one I never thought I’d say: consistent. As counter-intuitive and bizarre as that sounds, Stanton is one of the few players to have topped the ton every week so far (Cornes, Westhoff, Birchall, Swan and Boak are the others), and he’s done this despite being tagged ahead of reigning Brownlow Medallist Watson in the last fortnight. This ability to break free is a massive improvement in his game from last season, with his torrid start to the year halted instantly once he started attracting the hard tag. Stanton now has to be considered one of the more reliable upgrade targets in the midfield.

Honourable Mentions: D. Thomas (35), Mayes (75), Ja. Roughead (112), Cloke (147), K. Cornes (156), Swan (130), Burgoyne (113), LeCras (103), Yarran (92), S. Selwood (127).

3. Viney (18)

The worst thing a rookie can do is put in a shocker right in the middle of their crucial cash generation cycle. By all means, get subbed for 50 points. Even have a week off with ‘The General’ – we expect that crap from our rookies. What we can’t accept is scores like the 18 points that Viney posted in Round 4; scores that put a huge dent in the money-making ability (BE of 29 this week)of one of our more promising rookies. Let’s not forget that most coaches would have had Viney on their field this week vs GWS, so that’s roughly 70-80 that you lose by playing him over Jones or Crouch as well.

2. Hodge (51)

Luke Hodge was one of the most traded-in players last week, as a $399k price-tag and a BE of 1 had him looking extremely tasty. The idea was that he would either 1. Come back to earth with 70-100 point scores, functioning as a ladder to a fallen Super-Premium like Ablett in a few weeks, or 2. Continue to produce at an elite level and become a Keeper. Unfortunately, Hodge peeked behind door three, which was the have-a-shocker-and-ruin-all-cash-generation-ability course of action. As a result, he’ll only jump up another $20k or so (and that’s being generous) this week, before being grounded by that 51-point score. This is just another example of the third week’s score being the most influential in any money-maker’s fortunes.

1. Swallow (64)

After a huge start to the season, Swallow inexplicably threw on the breaks with a disappointing 18-touch effort against the Lions. I assumed he’d earn the Raines tag, but that went to Wells and yet Spitter still struggled. This is a perfect example of why Swallow has failed to breach that Super-Premium status in the past – he’s prone to dishing up a 60-point score on any given day.

Dishonourable Mentions: Suban (13), Parker (41), Bartel (66), JPK (59), Hanley (62), O’Keefe (71), Pendlebury (86), D. Martin (58).

• Nuts and Bolters

Every year, there’s a bunch of players who just come from nowhere. Contrary to convention, these surprise-packets show little or no signs that they’ll burst out of the blocks, shocking even the most dedicated fantasy coaches. If you started with any of the guys in the table below, you’re either a fortune teller, a die-hard Port fan, or you just got plain lucky with the auto-fill function.

There are some incredible break-out performances in that list. The Port trio of Cornes, Westhoff and Boak lead the pack with incredible improvements on their 2012 output, although it has to be noted that their start to this season has been the softest of any side so far (Melb, GWS, Adel, Gold Coast).It’ll be interesting to see whether they can keep this up, particularly Kornes, who is averaging 24.5 uncontested possessions a game – the most in the league.

One player who I find particularly interesting is Mathew Stokes.  For some reason he was the sub in Round 2, yet he still managed to accumulate 60 points in a quarter and a bit. When you remove that game, we see that he’s averaged 110 in his three non-subbed games; Westhoff is the only forward to average more. This form culminated in him being named as the ‘rover’ in Thursday’s team sheets, and that’s exactly where he played. So, is Stokes the real deal? Well, he is averaging 30 disposals and a goal in those three full matches – I think he could be.

• Round 5 Issues

It’s an awkward time in Dream Team at the moment, stuck in the twilight zone between late fix-it trades and our first upgrades. Many coaches have a bit of cash in the bank from jumping on bolters and missed rookies in the past few weeks, and it’s time to start thinking about investing that capital. But who to bring in? And at the expense of which rookies? Is it possible to bring in another two rookies and therefore leave all that cash sitting in bank for another week?

Round 5 trades are shaping up to be season-defining – it’s all about what choices you make in the weeks where the path isn’t so clear. Here are a few issues that we’ll be facing this week:

Evans or Mayes?

A week ago, I’d have said that Mayes would be a definite inclusion into my squad if he scored 75 in Round 4. As it stands, it’s not so black and white; thanks largely to a huge performance from an under-the-radar rookie in Michael Evans (111). As I alluded to earlier, it might be excessive to engineer another two rookie grabs this week, because not only are  you sacrificing points while you’re not upgrading, you’re also not utilising any money sitting on your bench.

If you buy into that line of reasoning, you’re basically making a choice between Evans and Mayes with that second trade. Of course, there are other rookies on the bubble like Duryea (-64BE, JS queries), Josh Thomas (-30BE, no JS), Wright (-25BE, scoring issues) and Rampe (-17BE, no JS) – but why jump on one of these guys when you can bring in a sure thing? There are arguments for both, making it very hard to make a definitive call…

The Case for Evans:

• At base draftee price of $108,500 versus Mayes’ inflated price of $152,200.
• The 111-point score will stay in his price rotation for two weeks.
• Is a straight swap positionally for Jack Viney ($182,800, BE29), and is expected to make $160k in the next three weeks (compared to Viney’s $40k).
• Should have received a job security boost with his job-saving (for Neeld, of course) 3 final quarter goals on the weekend.
• Doesn’t play for Voss.
• Scored 112 in a game in 2011, so at least we know his 111 isn’t a complete fluke.

The Case for Mayes:

• Has looked very much best 21 in his first two matches, giving him some sort of JS.
• He hasn’t relied on goals to boost his scores so far, whereas Evans needed 3 snags to get to 111 points.
• Has Mid/Fwd DPP which could come in particularly handy – if you trade him in for Viney – for switches with Dwyer or Neade as required.
• Also, as a DPP, you can basically trade him in for anyone else in the Mid/Ruck/Fwd lines (assuming you have Rowe/Sinclair resting forward) if you want to keep Viney or don’t have him to begin with.
• Brisbane battle Melbourne this week, which could make his critical third score a belter and guarantee cash generation for the next month.

Verdict:

I have no bloody idea.

No Reversing and Swanny VC

One sub-plot of Round 5 is the Anzac Day match on Thursday, and therefore no reversible trades after this time. I repeat – we’ll be going old school with our trading this week, so wait for the Friday Cull before pulling any post-Bombers/Pies/Saints/Swans trades. Luckily, this shouldn’t affect our ability to bring in the popular targets likes Mayes, Evans, Birchall, or Ablett. However, if you’re looking to cash in any of Dwyer/Macaffer/Rampe/Kommer , it will have to be done before the first lockout, adding an element of risk.

The interesting thing is that Swanny will be playing in the ANZAC Day clash, meaning we can utilise the VC loophole with the partial lockout. But remember that you have to have a non-playing non-Bombers/Pies/Saints/Swans player to capitalise on it, and looking at my side, every player took to the field last week… Normally we’d rely on our R4 for this sort of task, and if you have Currie, you’re good to go. Daw owners would be a little more nervous however, especially if he’s not officially ruled out before Thursday Teams. Imagine locking in Swanny as VC, him busting out 160 against the Bombers, then realising that you have no one to loophole him with… That’s what FMDTs are made of.

Lack of Ripe Premiums

One look at the Break-evens shows that we have an alarmingly small group of Premiums ripe for the picking. Of course, players that I’ve mentioned in the Bolters section have tempting BE’s but none of those are the reliable Super-Premiums we’d be willing to back in over a whole season. We should be now looking to exclusively trade in either cash-making rookies or players who’ll be in the top players in their position by the end of year, and none of those players meet that criterion.

From what I can see, basically Birchall (55BE), Hartlett (30BE) and Cloke (2BE) are the only players who have low BE’s that look like they could be Super-Premiums in their respective positions over a whole season. If you don’t like this trio, it could actually be worth doing two rookie trades (likely Mayes and Evans), then upgrading (or even double upgrading!) next week when all our Premos have fallen a little farther.

• Premium Forecast

Trade-wise, the most important things that I have to keep in mind from now on is:

1. Make sure you’re culling cash-cows for the right downgrades targets at the right time, and
2. Make sure you’re bringing in Premiums at their cheapest.

Now, I can’t predict the future of the competitions rookies; but with the aid of Break-evens, we can gain a decent idea of when Premiums will be at their most ripened. Here’s a short list of players that I have firmly entrenched on my radar – note that they are all players we’d have considered in our sides last season:

I’m pretty happy with my rucks (Cox and Leuenberger) at the moment, so these are the guns I’m looking at for upgrades across the other areas of my ground. Of the players that will be ripe this week, I really like the look of Birchall, even though he’s $96k more expensive than Hartlett. Hamish is likely to have a tougher time against stronger sides, whereas the Hawks have had a contrastingly tougher run so far, so it can only get easier for Birch. Plus, Birchall has been simply incredible.

After this week, Daisy Thomas is a high-priority addition. In two or three weeks, his price will be down around $400k, which he’ll obviously outperform when fit. Thank you Bucks and a vested 35 last week for that!

Which fallen premiums are you looking at bringing in over the next month? What issues are your side facing in Round 5? Let us know in the comments!

Until next week.

While all the salary-cap coaches worry about prices changes and all that rubbish, it’s business as usual in our Draft Leagues. As you’ve probably noticed, all the value is drying up in the Free Agency pool as we reach equilibrium after gathering three rounds of solid data. Now’s the part of the season where the astute coaches gain a massive advantage – combing the Waivers, predicting Positional Changes and constructing beneficial Trades all become critical squad-improving tactics from this point forward. Good luck!

Note: All references to leagues are based on a standard 12-team H2H Ultimate Footy league, with a 5-7-1-5 on-field structure and Captains disabled. All position eligibilities and ownership & drafted statistics are sourced from Ultimate Footy at the time of writing. If your League varies significantly, adjust the advice in this article accordingly.

Scorecard

With 3 games worth of data under our belts we now know enough to make better, more educated list management decisions. The same goes for advice offered in this column. From now on, we’ll review how each player mentioned in the Draft Files performed and give a few notes on their situation. It’s a good way of tracking the fringe players we talk about here – not to mention holding myself accountable for the things I say in this forum.

Here’s summary of the players discussed last week:

All in all, I was pretty happy with how the players on that list performed. We always knew Watts wasn’t going to play thanks to the Thursday Teams, making Lewis Jetta was the biggest disappointment. I really don’t know what’s going on with him at the moment… Is it fitness-related? A new role? A lack of effort? I’ll be watching closely over the next couple of weeks, but I completely understand if you drop him to the Waivers based on his pathetic early efforts.

Strings to a Bow

I mentioned possible positional updates last week, and you’d have seen the first wave of transformed players if you’ve enabled that particular setting with Ultimate Footy this season.

As you can see from the table above, we’ve been blessed with two extra eligibilities in each position. The Motlop/Stokes/Yarran/Dixon additions aren’t as useful as you would have been playing them in their lower positions anyway, and Blicavs isn’t averaging enough to become a legitimate option anyway.

The real winners here are Mullett (B), Stanley (B) and Wingard (F) owners, who can improve their squads considerably by moving them to their new positions. For instance, I could move Mullett (96.3 avg) to my defence, benching Sam Butler (64.5 avg). This would allow me to play Heath Hocking (79.3 avg), who’s been sitting there as my midfield emergency.  This is an increase in around 15 average points – just by swinging Mullett into a lesser position.

Players to miss out include Joel Corey and Ricky Petterd, although this is probably because they’ve only played the two games so far this season. They’ll likely be granted extra B eligibility if their current roles continue until the Round 6 positional update – keep a close eye on that pair!

Under 500

BACK: Dylan Roberton (B, 75.0 avg, 38% owned)

If there’s a Backman averaging 75 in the Free Agent pool, I’d be snapping them up pretty quickly. Roberton has shown he’s pretty reliable so far, producing a low of 60 in his three games – solid for a famously inconsistent position. He had 102 against the Giants last week, but I think his output will be more in the 60-75 point range; still making him worthy of a pick-up as a Back emergency at the very least.

CTR: David Mackay (C, 67.7 avg, 43% owned)

Mackay has spent almost 6 years in the AFL system now, yet he’s struggled to get comfortable in that time and it shows in his scoring. The fact that he didn’t top the ton in 23 games last year shows that he has serious ceiling issues as well. However, he only dipped below 60 on four of those occasions, proving that he’s normally good for a 65-point total – which is actually start-worthy for a lot of sides.

RUC: Sam Rowe (F/R, 63.5 avg, 35% owned)

With Kreuzer, Sandilands, Ryder, Naitanui and McIntosh all out for the new few weeks, there’s a bit of a squeeze on for back-up ruckman at the minute. Max Bailey (53.7 avg, 36% owned) is still a consideration, but I’d be strongly considering Rowe over him. While Kreuzer is out for the next month, Rowe’s job security just taken a massive shot to the arm, and he showed with 68 points last week what he can do when unshackled. Warnock’s inclusion means his role shouldn’t change too much; he’ll still be that key forward/pinch-hitting ruckman hybrid.

FWD: Aaron Hall (F, 71.3 avg, 31% owned)

With back-to-back 82 point scores, Hall has to be on your radar. I’d normally write this off as a bit of an aberration, but looking at the Suns’ fixture coming up, I’m strangely optimistic. The Gold Coast has the Power, Giants, Demons and Bulldogs in their next 5 games, which means they should at least be competitive in most of those matches. As a small forward, this is great news for Hall.

Demons: Anthony Miles (C, 17% owned)

We all know Miles could be a great fantasy player if given a clear run at it, but opportunities have been few and far between for him in his first two season with the Giants. But did you know this; In 7 games for GWS, he’s never been the sub – averaging 74.7 points across those games. If he can survive the Friday Cull, strongly consider getting on Miles for as long as he’s in the squad.

Vanilla: Luke McGuane (F, 69.7 avg, 27% owned)

McGuane is the type of player that you hate seeing in your line-up, mainly due to the stigma attached to players like himself. However, the reality is that he’s scoring reasonably well in that 3^rd-tall role for the Tigers, and should be owned by more than 27% of coaches with the numbers he’s producing. With a low of 67 in three games, surely he’s worth a speculative bench pick-up, if nothing else?

Roughie: Kepler Bradley (F, 55.7 avg, 25% owned)

With Matthew Pavlich out for 4-6 weeks after having surgery on his Achilles, who picks up the slack? Fremantle resisted the temptation to bring in another key forward, which means that ‘Kepley’ will be expected to step up. His scores have been confined to the 50’s this season, but he’s shown in the past that he can be a big scorer when it all falls into place for him – taken a four-game stretch from Bradley just last year where he averaged 87.8 points as an example.

Lock ‘Em Up

Whenever we see injuries or suspensions hit key position players, our first thought should be to ‘Handcuff’. Two starting ruckmen in Kreuzer and Ryder will both miss the next 3 weeks at a minimum, which gives a couple of back-ups a chance in the big time. If you are a proud owner of either of the pair above, strongly consider picking up these players in their absence:

David Hille (R/F, 59% owned)

Hille is probably one of the better players that regularly miss AFL selection, the unlucky victim of having the younger Bellchambers and Ryder on the same list. Don’t forget that he was a Premium ruckman just two years ago and still averaged 73.8 points in a cameo role last season, where he played exclusively when either Bellchambers or Ryder was out. Simply, get on him Ryder owners – he will score at will when out on the park.

Robert Warnock (R, 27% owned)

In Warnock’s last full-ish season, he averaged 73.3 for the Blues in 2011. So yes, he can play, it’s just that Kreuzer can play better and Warnock is about as useful in the forward line as a blindfolded Zac Dawson. He’s certainly in good form too, notching 20 touches and 51 hitouts in the VFL last weekend! If you have the Kreuz, get on Warnock if he’s still available.

• Fire in the Hole

Round 3 scoring was like a war-time explosion, where the better scores came from the teams that avoided most of the shrapnel. We had untimely injuries, underperforming rookies, unwarranted faith holds and typically terrible trade-ins attacking our squads this week, which always seems to be the nature of a crucial Round 3. As a result, ‘Par’ was around 2000 this week, which would have earned you a weekly ranking of around 15,000. Yep, that’s the high standards we set for ourselves here at DT Talk.

So, what can we take out of Round 3? Our issues were mostly concerned with Old School versus New Age trading strategies coming into the Round – so which won? It’s early days yet, but YOLO-style trading has definitely paid off thus far, with many coaches making cash as well as a few points with the trades they pulled this week. One man in particular typified the potential that this fresh trading mentality possesses – and he’s first up in this week’s Polling section…

• Polling and Trolling

3. Justin Westhoff (140)

In theory, I really liked the idea of trading in Westhoff. Obviously, after scores of 100 and 154 in the first two rounds, he was going to make us some serious coin. Secondly, most of us had players like Zorko (disappointing) and Karnezis (not playing) that warranted fixing, so you wouldn’t be going out of your way by jumping on the Hoff. And finally, he averaged almost 80 points for the last two seasons – which meant that you’d expect to earn some points while you waited for his price to plateau. Now this is the key, and is the main distinction between himself and someone like Charlie Dixon (59.4 avg in 2012) or Tom Liberatore (77.7 avg in 2012, but in a tougher midfield market), other popular money-makers this week that just didn’t have the same runs on the board.

In reality, I vomited in my mouth a few times when I realised I actually traded someone like Westhoff into my side – it just goes completely against every lesson we’ve learnt from playing DT over the last half a decade.

History will go on to show that The Hoff dominated in the Showdown; kicking a somewhat wasteful 4.4 four to go with 24 touches for a massive 140-point score. Not only did he shoot up $68.8k this week (3^rd highest increase of all players, including rookies), but he still has a BE of -20 for Round 4. To put the cherry on top, he’s also the highest-averaging player this season with 131.5 DT per game, 5 points clear of breakout midfielder Andrew Swallow. What a start to the year…

2. Ollie Wines (126)

I’m not going to make a stupid ‘Wines’ pun like every other writer out there – I’m just going to back off and let him breathe. He deserves nothing but praise in the meantime, scoring a huge 126 points in a game that befit a 150-game veteran than a mere 3^rd-gamer. Given his start, most coaches had him on the field, bestowing us not only the pleasure of adding an unexpected ton to our weekly total, but also delivering an incredible $91.3k profit.

1. Dustin Martin (144)

I jumped off Martin just hours before the Round 1 lockout, and let’s just say I’m regretting it a little this week. Besides the superhuman effort from Westhoff, Dusty has the highest average of any forward-eligible player with 105 points per game. This is mostly thanks to a coming-of-age 144-point score this weekend, a game where he displayed possibly his first sustained 4-quarter effort. If he can do that each week, watch out.

Honourable Mentions: S. Selwood (142), L. Hodge (135), D. Cox (132), K. Cornes (128), A. Swallow (123), T. Goldstein (114), Josh J Kennedy (113), P. Hanley (108), N. Fyfe (108), H. Hartlett (107), D. Roberton (102), A. Mullet (98), A. Monfries (90), M. Jones (86), C. Sinclair (68).

3. Second Year Stars

I’ve written about the Rockliff Effect (where a player regresses significantly the year after posting their first premium-quality fantasy season) in the Bullets a few times this pre-season, so obviously I am aware of the phenomenon and try to avoid it like Scott Lucas did his right boot. So how can it be that I picked both two second-year players in Greene and Zorko in my initial squad?! I must be the fantasy equivalent of Brad Scott, because I’ve been suckered into picking two players suffering from a high dosage of the very infection I swore to avoid.

Greene had just 49 in Round 3, which puts him a whopping 43 points below his 2012 average of 96 points per game. Likewise, Zorko’s 51 has his 2013 average 35 points in arrears of his debut season. Horrible stats. That’s the trouble with having a break-out season; the opposition notices, and you’re suddenly copping more attention than ever before.

2. Walking Wounded

As a community we cop injuries on the chin every week, but it’s normally pretty rare to have more than 2 or 3 fantasy-relevant casualties in the same weekend. Enter Charlie Dixon (red-vested for 66, ankle), Travis Varcoe (12, shoulder), Jonathon Patton (15, ACL), and Matthew Kreuzer (21, broken thumb). The latter three were all above 15% ownership before the round kicked-off, meaning that a large chunk of trades will be falling under the ‘LTI’ bracket this week.

1. Andrew Carrazzo (45)

Thank God Carrazzo wasn’t granted defender eligibility this season, because a lot more coaches would be livid at the scores he has dished up so far. A 58-point average so far puts him miles back on what he’s achieved fantasy-wise for the past six seasons (averaged 82 or more per game each year), which suggests that his scoring while tagging under Malthouse might not be what it once was. Those who have him in Draft Leagues are justified feeling cheated where Carrots is concerned.

Dishonourable Mentions: J. Watson (65), J. Pittard (28), J. O’Meara (54), J. Selwood (66), M Pavlich (49), Ja. Roughead (67), K. Jack (59), G. Ablett (105).

• Triple Trouble

Over the past couple of years, some of the biggest break-outs/fantasy surprises have been Tom Rockliff in 2011, as well as Shane Tuck and Brock McLean in 2012. What do they have in common? They all averaged the Triple Trouble. That’s when a player notches at least 25 disposals, 5 marks and 5 tackles in a game – obviously, to do that over a whole season is a remarkable feat. To put that in perspective, scoring the most basic Triple Trouble (25,5,5) with a K:H of 1 – that’s 98 DT points right there.

*Note: 2012 averages exclude subbed games where player played less than 3Q.

This got me thinking – who’s going to be that surprise packet this year? No-one saw Tuck or McLean coming… Maybe the Triple Trouble could help us unearth the next underrated DT goldmine?! Below is a summary of the players who are currently averaging that Triple Trouble, guys that aren’t too far off it, and even a few other players that I believe have what it takes.

Most of the guys on that list are popular fantasy players already, but there are a few surprises. Andrew Swallow is definitely one that has come on in leaps and bounds this season, so it’s no surprise that he’s averaging the Triple Trouble. We all know Stanton is a tireless worker, so it’s no surprise to see him filling up the stat sheet. Hodge has just played the two games, so we’ll wait to we see another game or too before we get excited.

No, the big shock on the list is Pearce Hanley, the only non-mid to even get close. He’s just scraping in, and it’s doubtful that he’ll keep it up, but as a Defender this is a great indicator of scoring ability and definitely puts him on the radar for our first Backline upgrade.

Brad Ebert, Callan Ward, Travis Boak and David Armitage are a handful of players who haven’t scored at a Super Premium level until now and therefore have snuck under the radar, but can certainly bridge the gap if they sustain these kinds of numbers. What do you think? Who’ll be the Brock McLean or Shane Tuck of 2013? Let us know in the comments!

• Halfway Harrys

Much has been said about Dustin Martin’s ‘ability’ (read: brain-exploding-ly frustrating habit) to get off to a great start, only to fade out of games. This is certainly reflected in his fantasy scoring – I don’t know how many times I’ve fist-pumped to Dusty’s 60+ half time score, only to scream the TV down while he crawls to 80 by the completion of the match.

As I said in the Polling section, Dusty played his first 4-quarter fantasy game this week, slamming the breaks on an alarming trend that was beginning to become his legacy. Is this a one-off or can he sustain his considerable influence for an entire game, on a regular basis? Only time will tell. What I’m more concerned about, is whether Dangerfield is becoming the 2013 Halfway Harry… Check out his stats to the right:

As a Dangerfield owner, this really worries me. Basically, he has to score 70 points in the first half to top the ton at this rate. We’ll keep an eye on this in the coming weeks, but seriously Danger – run a game out big fella! That 66% of score coming in the first half is eerie consistent…

Have you noticed any Halfway Harrys this season? You know the deal – use the comments section below!

• Bubble Boys & Benched Bucks

Last week our big trade dilemma came down to philosophy – do we take the old school trading approach and trade in a reliable Keeper (points), or do we take risks with bolters on the bubble for a couple of weeks (cash)? This week, my trading mentality is conflicted between two similarly polarising strategies – to go for the cash, or bank the points while we can.

Specifically, I’m talking about how much cash we have in the kitty. I know a lot of coaches traded in Rookies/Bolters (missed rooks, Moloney, Westhoff, JJK) before their price-changes, many of them for mid-pricers or Premiums (K. Stevens, Lucas, Toumpas, Greene, Zorko, Danger, Karnezis, etc.) and therefore bank $150k+ in cash. Obviously, that’s the right call as getting in the best rookies and fixing up your big mistakes is more important in Round 3 than having as much firepower on the ground as possible.

But with rookies like Terlich (-70BE), Crouch (-61BE), Sinclair (-53BE), and Rowe (-63BE) about to burst, what do we do? Take the rookies while they’re on offer to generate as much cash as possible, or do what we’ve in previous season and try and turn that cash into points as soon as we can – such as a Karnezis à Chapman instead of Rowe/Sinclair, or Kommer à Montagna instead of Crouch, for instance?

I have a feeling that whichever track you wander down while greatly influence the fate of your squad over the entire season. I tried crunching the numbers, but it requires a lot of assumptions and there’s just a such a wide range of possibilities that it became pointless – it will have to be a case of trial and error, then…

If I’ve lost you or you have no idea what I’m talking about, take my personal situation as an example. I have $199k sitting in the back from previous downgrades. Now, Kommer ($141k – suspended for two weeks) will go to Crouch ($109k), leaving me with a $231k surplus before my second trade. I then have two options:

1. Old School Methodology

Trade Karnezis ($239k) up to a Premium like Dustin Martin, leaving me with petty change in the bank but with a stronger on-field unit. Obviously, I miss out on a sure-thing cash-cow like Sinclair or Terlich.

2. The Stock Market Approach

Trade Majak Daw ($109k) for Sinclair ($105k), leaving me with a worrying $234k in the kitty for possible upgrades next week. The obvious disadvantage is that it doesn’t make my team any better in the short-term – as Sinclair will be coming off my bench regardless – not to mention that I’d still have a $239k hack sitting on my bench doing nothing.

As I type this out, I find myself leaning towards option two. There are still many more numbers to crunch and scenarios to envisage, but money is fast-becoming the theme for 2013 so I’m thinking the “short-term pain for long-term gain” approach could be a winner… What do you think? Will you focusing on the dollar signs, or banking the points while you can? Let us know in the comments!

• Tbetta’s Tweets

Man, that’s tough. I guess this is what all the extra trades are for! If it were me, I’d trade your most valuable asset in Kreuzer as a priority, as you simply can’t have all that cash rotting on your bench. Goldstein is a great option at a similar price, while Leuenberger is a big consideration from a value perspective if you don’t already have him.

After that, it comes down to how much cash you have and what options are open to you in the forward line. I’d go either Varcoe to a Premium (will require around $250k), or Patton down to a Sinclair/Rowe on the bubble and turn a bad injury into a positive money-making venture. Obviously, the second option would put you in a good position to upgrade Varcoe next week. Good luck whichever way you go!

As I alluded to earlier, it’s probably the opposite – Rookies are more important than ever! With so many trades, there’s now an element of who can make cash the quickest so that they can attain ‘complete’ teams as soon possible.  Obviously, Rookies are the easiest and most reliable sources of cash we have, so farming them where and when we can has become even more crucial to our overall success.

The Westhoff/Moloney/Dixon situation was unique as their first price changes were compounded after two big weeks, making trading them in more than double as effective as it would usually be (as any big score they get from now on will raise their price before you can buy them). Obviously, when there are no rookies on the bubble and no LTI’s to worry about, guys like Westhoff come into calculations, but it a significantly less effective trade than bringing in that rookie just before they start to fatten up.

Following on from the previous tweet, it’s never too early. However, new rookies definitely take a priority, generally speaking, so maybe this week isn’t the best time to bring in a Premium? You should always be looking to improve your team, so whenever there are no promising rookies about to experience their first price fluctuation – that’s the time to pounce. This could be as early as next week!

• Next Week

That’s all for the Bullets this week, besides one huge consideration – who’s playing the Demons?! He says as his mouse hovers over the trade button…. Unfortunately, it’s just the GWS Giants. Toby Greene has been a massive disappointment to date so I wouldn’t touch him with a ten-foot stick, unless it was hard and repeatedly in the head.

Callan Ward, on the other hand, has been in excellent form, averaging a shade over the ton. He’s a similar type of player to Scott Selwood, a tough, hard-working inside mid, and given what Scooter did to the Demons (142 DT points), Ward is my bet to have a day out. At $503,400 with a BE of 79, there are worse options out there – and at 0.6% ownership, he’d certainly be unique!

Until next week.

Note: All references to leagues are based on a standard 12-team H2H Ultimate Footy league, with a 5-7-1-5 on-field structure and Captains disabled. All position eligibilities and ownership & drafted statistics are sourced from Ultimate Footy at the time of writing. If your League varies significantly, adjust the advice in this article accordingly.

Positional Changes

For those playing in Ultimate Footy leagues, one of the most enjoyable services offered is the in-season positional updates. Straight from the horse’s mouth:

“From time to time players’ positions are reviewed. If a player has been playing primarily in a position that they are not originally eligible for in Ultimate Footy, a player positional change may be made.”

Basically, every three weeks, the powers-that-be analyse player trends and update deserving player eligibilities. Note that a player’s current positional status will never be removed – only added to. Identifying these players before they are officially updated is an underrated yet highly effective way of improving your squad.

For instance, last season I had Hamish Hartlett in my squad as a ‘C’ only. He wasn’t scoring well enough to earn a starting gig in my squad, confined to the bench every week as an emergency. Due to his role in defence for Port, he was updated to B/C status, instantly becoming a Top 3 Defender in my side. By moving him onto the field and removing my worst defender, I was able to gain 20-30 points a week without actually changing my squad.

Identifying these players and acquiring them can give you the same boost this season. Below is a short list of fantasy relevant players who might gain positional statuses in the first or second wave of updates – typically taking place every three rounds. Of course, the most influential additions are where player is gifted the ‘weaker’ eligibilities; obviously, Hartlett earning B status is more valuable than someone like Newman being granted C status, as you’d just play him in your weaker line anyway, which is usually defence.

Ricky Petterd (F – 75 – 39% owned)

It was Petterd’s first game in Round 2, and as he did all pre-season, he lined up in defence. He averaged 79 points in his last full-ish season (I realise that’s like saying that Lindsay Lohan gave a great performance the last movie she filmed when she was sober-ish) as a forward – what can he do for a finals contender like Richmond in the backline? 75 points last week was a great start, and being named to start at CHB this week leaves no doubt that he’ll be given ‘B’ status in the near future. Petterd is a great option for coaches who are looking for an extra Backman, given that the Free Agent Forward pool is traditionally so much deeper.

Charlie Dixon (B – 104avg – 82% owned)

Whether or not Dixon can continue his current form (98 and 110) isn’t important – he can still average 70, meaning he’d still be a guaranteed starter in standard leagues. What intrigues me is that he had more hit-outs than Zac Smith on the weekend (which is like saying that Ashton Kutcher bedded  more women last year than myself – it’s not hard), given that it’s commonly accepted that Zmith is the ruckman and Dixon the part-timer. Keep an eye on the Suns ruck situation this week – if my hunch is right, we will see Dixon with B/R eligibility in the near future.

Chris Yarran (B – 67avg – 75% owned)

Yarran has returned to the forward line under Malthouse, peeling off a HFF in the two games so far this season. Any change in eligibility won’t be as effective as some, but if you have more depth in defence than in the forward line, then this could come in handy – Yarran’s almost a monty to become F eligible.

Joel Corey (C – 68 – 65% owned)

The best in-season updates are the ones that morph fringe midfielders into instant starters. Joel Corey is still available in 35% of leagues, thanks to missing the first round and only scoring 68 in the second. Corey has played key defensive roles when there have been injuries at the Cats in the past, so a more permanent role in the backline for the veteran isn’t out of the question. It’ll be interesting to see whether he stays in that 3^rd-tall post for Geelong in the next few weeks, and whether that translates to updated B/C status.

Seek

With two games of data under our belts, now is that to seek out underperformers that have sewn the seed of doubt in their owner’s minds. It’s unlikely you’ll be able to steal these players off the Waivers like other unwanted disappointments, so you’ll have to attempt to trade for them if you think their form trends are reversible. Everyone knows about the popular flops – the Greene’s, Zorko’s and Adcock’s of the fantasy world – but the seven that I’m suggesting you look at slide under the radar, so prying them away from rival coaches mightn’t be as difficult…

DEF: Houli (54 and 38, ADP: 110.9) / Watts (20 and 38, ADP: 140.1)

To say that these two players have been disappointments would be like saying Wayne Carey isn’t a great best mate, or the Demons don’t play great footy. Comically, they are to the fantasy world what Hamish and Andy are to middle-aged Christian ladies. I’m not going to make excuses for their form so far, but I will say this – they are better than what they’ve shown so far.

I mean, they went at 93 and 87 DT/100min in the pre-season, so the ability is there – they’re likely just being given more attention from the opposition. I fully expect them both to get considerably better, so consider bringing them for a steal. Yes, I realise that Watts has been dropped this week to learn a lesson, which only means you should be able to get him cheaper!

MID: Bennell (66 and 44 ADP: 100) /Gaff (63 and 45 ADP: 95.8)

If there’s one thing in this world that I hate more than mouth ulcers and teenage facebook statuses, it’s taggers.  Just ask Daniel Kerr – his autobiography reads something like: “Round 1; Tagged, managed 16 possessions. I promise I’ll beat it next time! Round 2; Tagged again, had 12 possessions. Frustrating day. Round 3; Tagged again, so I punched him in the groin. Suspended for a few weeks. Tagger asshole.”

Bennell has been tagged by Clinton Jones and McVeigh so far, and given its success, I can’t see it changing. What I can see changing is how he copes with the tag, and the only way is up. Gaff has been a similar story, tagged by Shiels against the Hawks on Sunday. He’s the safer bet of this pair as the Eagles have Kerr and Shuey, and quelling them is normally a priority for opposition sides. Expect his output to increase dramatically against the Casey Scorpions, or Melbourne – whichever shows up this week.

RUC: Giles (66 and 68, ADP:102.6)

The first thing I notice about Giles, after his ridiculously large head, is that he’s been playing up forward a lot so far this season. It seems that Brogan (seriously, is it a prerequisite to have a massive noggin to become a ruckman at GWS?!) is soaking up the bulk of the ruck time, which explains Giles’ reduced fantasy impact this season. There’s a reason why Jon was a top seven ‘pure’ ruck selection in the ADP rankings this pre-season, and it’s because he score consistently. Definitely seek him out, especially if you have a Ryder/Cox/Roughead that you can move into the forward line once Brogan has a stroke or something and Giles starts getting full minutes again.

FWD: DeBoer (51 and 62, ADP: 127) / L. Jetta (44 and 68,ADP: 168.2)

DeBoer has been the forward-tag extraordinaire so far this season, which understandably puts you off him right away. He did this all of last season though and was still successful at scoring himself (a breakout season average of 84), particularly when curtailing midfielders. Meanwhile, Jetta is always the taggee, never the tagger. His role sucks at the moment, playing deeper forward than he did last season. Sydney won’t keep this up for long, so expect him to move into the midfield on a more regular basis over the coming weeks. He’ll never be the kind of guy who averaged 100 points in a season, but he does have the potential to average 80. He started poorly last year too, and let’s face it; he can’t score any worse than he has so far.

Under 500

When it comes to supplementing your side with talent from the Free Agency pool, it’s not often that you’ll be gifted the perfect addition. No, you’ll probably have to get your hands dirty, and that’s when we start looking at players under 50% ownership. Here’s the best of the lot:

• Lewis Stevenson (B/C – 72.5avg – 48% owned)

I don’t understand why someone like Stevenson is still in the Free Agency pool when the depth of defenders is so shallow this year. He’ll rarely set the world on fire, but he’s the perfect emergency defender – if not your last starter in standard leagues. He’ll play every week, his role will never be ‘lockdown’ thanks to his sublime foot skills and he’ll fetch you 60 points a game.

• Jasper Pittard (B – 70avg – 42% owned)

Like Stevenson, Pittard is on the Waivers more often than he is owned, which is an absolute tragedy when some hack like Geary boasts 75% ownership. He’s perfect for that intercept-marker role in Port’s new-look defence, just like Mark Wahlberg is the Number 1 choice for any role that involves a gun. He’s been playing deeper than Stevenson so far, so I’d see if Lewis was available before moving on Jasper.

• Chad Wingard (C – 89 avg – 45% owned)

Coaches are more than justified in being wary of Wingard’s early form, given Port have taken on the Demons and Giants so far this season. For that reason, I’d still take Hocking (87 avg, 53% owned) or even Mullett (95.5 avg, 53% owned) as pure mids, but beggars can rarely be choosers. Which probably explains why Nicholas Cage is more The Sorcerer’s Apprentice than Face/Off these days. If Wingard can continue to notch 20 disposals a game, then the points will flow.

• Max Bailey (R – 64 avg – 37% owned)

If you’re looking for a back-up ruck option (if you got stuck with the 6 foot 8 human potato, Zac Smith, for instance), then Bailey is one of the only reliable options left in the Free Agency pool. 65 to 70 is probably his average range – provided he stays healthy. He’s about as durable as a virgin on Prom night, but his output is reliable when on the park.

• Josh Hill (F – 65 avg – 35% owned)

Josh Hill isn’t normally the kind of player that I’d recommend grabbing, mostly because the only thing he does consistently is his inconsistency. He’s a bit of a front-runner, and given that the Eagles play a spiritless Demons outfit this week, it’s a good chance that Hill can provide more than his usual witches-hat quality forward pressure and score some serious fantasy points.

• Craig Bird (C/F – 19 – 50% owned)

Bird was the sub last weekend after missing through injury in Round 1, which I think is a huge reason why he’s only at 50% ownership. He’s shown what he can do last season, averaging 101.2 over the first 5 rounds of 2012. Obviously, this decreased considerably as he was asked to tag more often, as well as wear a few green vests. He’s still a fair chance to be subbed this week, but he’ll get his opportunity to run out a whole game in the next couple of weeks – jump on before he becomes a Waiver Wire must-have.

Outside Looking In…

Chris Knights (F – 52% owned)

With 41 disposals in the VFL last weekend, Chris Knights has to be close to displacing someone from the unbeaten Richmond squad. Much has been said about Knights’ fantasy potential in the past, which is evident in the fact that he averaged over 83 points for three years running once upon a time. He’ll play that high half forward role for the Tigers you’d think, but will probably be a serious vest concern in his first couple of games. If you have the space on your bench to make a speculative add, stash Knights away for a fortnight or too and see what he dishes up.

Robbie Gray (C/F – 45% owned)

We all know what Robbie Gray can do when he’s not snapping legs or pulling hammies, so hopefully he gets a clear run at it this season.  He averaged 82 points from 21 games in 2011 and he’s named on the extended bench for Port this week, so he could be worth a speculative add. He won’t play this week and obviously he’ll cop a few vests early on; but with a player of Gray’s quality, it’s a calculated long-term risk that could pay high dividends.

 Jason Winderlich (F – 34% owned)

With 8 goals in just three quarters in the VFL last Friday, it’s safe to assume that Winderlich will come into calculations for Essendon over the next few weeks. He has a history of scoring well, particularly in 2009 and 2010 where he had almost full seasons and averaged 94.1 and 87.7 respectively. If you have space on the bench, I’d stash him away early while he’s still flying under the radar.

• Breaking Bad

  The most crucial lockout, barring our Round 1 starting squads, is always the Round 3 lockout. After this week, the majority of the AFL fantasy fraternity will experience their first price fluctuations, which means that this is our last chance to patch any leaky holes in our Dream Team boats.
  Even before we had two trades a week to play, trading before the third round was a must – we should know a lot more about the players we’ve picked with two games worth of home-and-away season data – not that silly NAB Cup stuff. As a result, this article will be saturated with trade talk, break-evens and dollar signs as we break down the best way to better/salvage your squad!

• Polled and Trolled

3. Jobe Watson (143)

J.Watson, 3 votes. Actually, that might have been Dyson Heppell (147) – but in DT terms, Jobe’s start has been Brownlow worthy. He’s currently the equal 2^nd highest scorer this season (128 avg), marginally behind teammate Stanton (128.5 avg) and alongside big improver Andrew Swallow. If you need to fix up any midfield mistakes, Jobes’s the guy for you – provided you can find the $580k lying around to lure him in.

2. Port Babies/Mid rooks

It was an excellent week in the world of rookies, the fuel that keeps our DT trains chugging. Our little Portlet backmen were excellent, with Pittard (78, -63BE), Heath (74, -69BE) and Stevenson (71, -82BE) all securing large price hikes ahead of time. Add in the wise Brett Goodes (82, -102BE), and it’s safe to say that our backlines will be funding the bulk of our earlier upgrades.
Proving that you can’t fake quality, two Number 1 picks in Jaeger O’Meara (mini-draft) and Lachie Whitfield became the first two rookies to top the ton this year. 102 for Whitfield is a frustrating result for owners who were dazzled by the extra dollars on offer for an overlooked Viney (59) or Wines (81), but Jaeger’s 104-point bomb has everybody smiling!

1. Josh J Kennedy (97)

My boy! JJK was one of the more traded-in players last week, and judging by the current Assistant Coach figures, he’s about to become one of the more popular characters in Fantasyland. Kennedy bounced back from a disappointing first quarter that only produced 4 points (a lonely tackle) to be the game-leader for the Eagles with 5-straight goals and 97 DT points. As I’ve said all along, key forwards will be inconsistent and he won’t be poppin’ 90’s every week – but he’s basically a must-have at this point, if only for his price increases over the next month due to his BE of -37 this week.

Honourable mentions: Hanley (124), Cotchin (121), Birchall (121), Ebert (117), A. Swallow (115), N. Riewoldt (108), Minson (104), Moloney (101), Wines (81), Neade (75).

3. Patrick Karnezis (9)

So far, Patrick Karnezis is a massive front-runner for the infamous Yarran Dilemma, just slightly overtaking Toby Greene for the honour at this early stage. He has failed miserably in living up to the (possibly excessive) expectations we had for him after his pre-season – where he went at 119DT/100min, don’t forget. Then only positive that we can take out of his 9-point sub-affected atrocity is that Claye Beams was the sub in Round 1, then was rewarded with a full outing the week after.

2. Hamish Hartlett (35)

After Vlastuin and Terlich were scratched in Round 1, a structure reshuffle meant that I was on the lookout for a new D4. Hartlett, Hanley and Grimes made the shortlist, and I’m feeling pretty lucky to have steered my side in a non-Hamish direction after Round 2. Hartlett backed up last week’s 105 points with just 35 in Round 2, largely due to a debilitating back injury sustained in the 3^rd quarter. As a result, he scored just 7 DT after half-time, which has the further effect of raising his BE considerably over the next fortnight. As for question marks over his health leading into this week’s Showdown, you can breathe easy – Hinkley says he’s a certain starter. 

1. Zac Smith (34)

Years into the future, I may consider picking Zac Smith in a fantasy side again. Until then, he’s dead to me. Like many coaches, Zmith was the stand-in for Leuenberger over the first week or two, which has just been a massive failure on every level. In fact, Blicavs – who’s literally played about seven games of Aussie Rules in his life – would have been a much better starter, scoring 8 more points over the first fortnight for just a third of the price. Luckily, Leuenberger announced his return with 74 at the weekend, making him a no-brainer replacement if you hadn’t done so already.

Dishonourable Mentions: Greene (72), Robinson (75), Rich(47), M. Wright (49), Zorko (75), Ablett (84), Varcoe (56), Watts (38), K. Mitchell (19).

• Round 2 Trade Grades

Last week I urged fellow coaches to leave their Premiums alone – basing trades around a single performance (with the exemption of rookies, of course) is something smart coaches would never have considered just a year ago with limited trades. More trading doesn’t necessarily mean smart trading – let’s have a look at how the reflex trades worked out:

Dangerfield OUT Barlow/Mundy/Murphy IN

Dangerfield was far from everybody’s favourite DTer last week, and without any large ruck or rookie issues, the remaining coaches chose to sever ties after just the one 51-point game. Barlow, Mundy and Murphy all topped the ton last week and were prime value-based replacements, particularly the Docker pair.

Grade: This trade earns a pass mark from me – just. Dangertroll still showed signs of inconsistency dealing with a tight tag (Raines, this time), bursting out to 53DT points halfway through the second quarter but slowing considerably to finish on 95. Mundy (70), Barlow (91) and Murphy (84) all stumbled a little themselves but look like they’ll all have consistent seasons, whereas you can see Dangerfield toying with our emotional state each week. This is more of a case of short-term pain for long term game than luxury-trade-gone-wrong for mine. D-

Ryder OUT Kreuzer IN

It was well publicised that Ryder had just the 4 touches last week, whereas Kreuzer was brilliant on his way to 114, making this just another reflex luxury trade pulled by a fair chunk of coaches. I’m very wary about side-swapping Premiums based on one performance, but this one seems to have paid off early.

Grade:  Ryder competed well for 86, but that was in a mauling of the Demons where the Bombers averaged a huge extra 45 DT points per player (wow!). Meanwhile, Kreuzer soldiered on for 91 in less-then-perfect weather for a ruckman, and I’m certain he would have had another 20 points in drier conditions. Additionally, Ryder’s BE is 141 to Kreuzer’s 31, which is another long-term positive out of this trade. B+

LeCras OUT Vickery IN

LeCras’ broken wrist obviously forced a lot of hands with Round 1 trades, so it just a case of who you picked to replace him. Josh Kennedy (99 in Round 1) was the obvious choice, but there were thousands of coaches (literally) who either had JJK already or chose to back in Vickery after his Round 1 career-night that was punctuated with 101 DT points.

Grade: Horrible trade. Judging a guy as inconsistent as Vickery based on one game is like leaving a half-cut Brendan Fevola in the TAB on his own – fraught with danger. As predictable as Ben Johnson trying to get onto his left foot, Vickery ground out a 34-point score before being offered the red vest, making the sneaking cash grab barely worth it. At least he still has a favourable break-even leading into Round 3, or this would have been a catastrophe. F

Zorko OUT Wright IN

After struggling for 51 points in Round 1, I can see why coaches were eager to jump off the sinking Zorko ship and onto what was seemingly a cruise-liner in Matthew Wright (102). The diminutive Crow was a hype-pick (particularly early in the NAB Cup), that looked like it would actually pay off…

Grade: While Zorko (75) outscored Wright (49) considerably this week, he needed two goals to do it, and he’s already on thin ice with us after Round 1. Wright’s score was tag-affected, as he was the unlucky soul asked to follow Rich around all day. Neither look particularly tempting going forward, with BE’s of 105 for Wright and 158 for the Zork. D

Moral of the story – if you’re going to trade a Premium out after Round 1, make sure it’s to a reliable option, not a speculative break-out guy. You’re only asking for more pain otherwise.

• Old School vs New Era

The interesting thing about all these extra trades are the strategies that coaches are coming up with to make use of them. I love seeing a variety of different tactics, as I don’t think there’s just one particular method we have to employ to be successful this season like there has been in the past (Guns & Rookies with a safe trading tact). As a result, I’m having an identity crisis – I feel like I’m an old-school DTer in a Gen Y’s body, unsure of which way to favour moving forward.

Unfortunately, DT won’t hang around and wait for me to make up my mind. With price changes just around the corner, this is the week where we go into Fix-It mode. It’s our last chance to patch up those pre-season mistakes – but where do we look for salvation? The reliable-though-expensive Premiums who’ll keep churning out points for us until their last breath, or the fast-rising bolters who’ll make you wads of cash if nothing else over the few weeks? Both are legitimate strategies – points vs cash – so for every Fix-it, I’ll offer at least one replacement that suits both strategies. Exciting times at the trade table!

1. Adcock ($418k, 136BE, 54avg)   /   Duffield ($427k, 107BE, 71avg)   /   Hartlett ($422k, 106BE, 70avg)

Old School: Hanley/Birchall/Heppell

The seasoned DT coach in me says to pull the pin on these underperforming D3’s and D4’s and sideways them to a reliable premium. Both Birchall ($456k, 44BE, 111avg) and Heppell ($439k, 34BE, 111.5avg) are on fire and satisfy the need for consistency with your backline Premiums, while Hanley ($426k, 35BE, 105.5avg) has the ability to average 90 for the year but is likely to be a bit more hot and cold than the others. These are all basically sideways options with change, with only really Birch needing a bit of capital to get over the line.

YOLO:  Charlie Dixon

Every instinct I have says that trading in Charlie Dixon ($305k, -34BE, 104avg) is a stupid idea and needs to be laughed at lengthily before being expunged immediately from my consciousness. However, even with quite modest predictions, he’ll shoot up about $70k in the next fortnight alone, not to mention the $120k-odd that you’d bank in a swap like this. Of course, the big risk is that he’ll do a ‘Vickery’ and your team will then suffer score-wise for a modest price increase which requires a further trade to fix anyway.

2. Greene ($496k, 181BE, 54.5avg)

Old School: Watson/Swallow

Unfortunately, as much as I’d like to keep Toby based on the Giants upcoming draw, his price is going to plummet in the meantime; probably in the neighbourhood of $40k-plus and that’s even with a decent total in Round 3. On the other hand, Watson ($580k, 83BE, 128avg) and Swallow ($529k, 53BE, 128avg) are both scoring at will so far this year and look likes excellent Set & Forget type replacements. If money was no object, Watson would be my first-choice in years past because of his excellent consistency and the ineffectiveness of any tags against him.

YOLO: Moloney

Alongside Luke Ball and Andrew Embley, Moloney ($310k, -16BE, 98.5avg) was a leading option as a mid-priced centreman this pre-season, and it’s paying dividends thus far. In fact, he’s the 2^nd-highest scoring Lion so far this year, and he has a guaranteed price hike on the way. Who knows whether he can keep it up, but he’s been doing it in tough losses which is a great consistency indicator. If you pull this trade you can pocket almost $190k now with guaranteed growth on the horizon.

3. Zmith ($301k, 95BE, 40.5avg)

Old School: Kreuzer/Goldstein

Quite simply, Zac Smith has to go. He has been shockingly ordinary in the first two rounds of 2013, with part-timer Charlie Dixon showing him a thing or two about ‘development’ and ‘realising potential’. If my mid-priced ruck failed in past seasons, I’d go straight up to the best value Premium options and look for a Set & Forget replacement there – this year, it’s between Kreuzer ($404k, 31BE, 102.5 avg) and Goldstein ($408k, 52BE, 93avg) for just $100k extra.

YOLO: Leuenberger

Seeing as Leuey ($234k, 74) is half the reason most coaches jumped on Zmith, it’s a simple sideways trade to get him in. If you hadn’t already pulled the trigger on this one last week, then the $70k windfall will help you patch holes elsewhere.

4. Zorko ($488k, 158BE, 63.6avg)

Old School: Bartel/Chapman

Despite relatively slow starts by their standards, Bartel ($493k, 94BE, 97avg) and Chapman ($503k, 101Be, 96.5avg) are some of the better Premium patches for an out-of-sync Zorko ($488k, 158BE, 63.6avg). They’ll be reliable sources of points; however, their BE’s are relatively close to their average so any poor score over the next few weeks will result in a sharp price drop – making it easier for everyone else to get on board later at a discount.

YOLO: Westhoff

Trading in Justin Westhoff ($395k, -23BE, 127avg) after his 154-point score last week is something I would have never dreamed of considering a year ago, but it’s a legitimate option these days. He’s averaged 80 points for the last couple of seasons, so you’ll earn points while he sits there fattening up in your side. Assistant Coach has him pegged for a price influx of almost $90k over the next fortnight alone, which by that time will put you in striking distance of a sideways trade to Buddy Franklin (expected to be around $490k after Round 4). Holy sh*t.

5. Karnezis ($239k, 64BE, 37.5avg)

Old School: HOLD or Josh J Kennedy

My instinctive preference would be to trade Karnezis to JJK ($273, -37BE, 38) – not because I Karny is a dud, but because Kennedy is a must-get, purely for cash generation purposes. It’s just so happens that I have both – so what to do? I’m leaning towards holding, partially because he has a gettable breakeven, partially because he shouldn’t be the sub again this week and mostly because I’d rather fix up bigger issues elsewhere.

YOLO: Petterd

If I was hell-bent on getting rid of Karnezis, Petterd ($244k, 75) would be my go-to guy. He slotted perfectly into Richmond’s defense last week, and it would avoid any probable price drop from Karnezis. This is a bit of a luxury trade though, because we don’t actually know what Petterd’s range is going to be like after just the one game.

• Tbetta’s Tweets

Great question. Like some of the speculative picks I mentioned above, Libba’s ($402k, -5BE, 120avg) not someone I’d ever have seriously entertained in years past. He’s just not reliable enough to be a ‘Keeper’ – someone that you’d hang your hat on for the rest of the year.

Of course, it’s a different world out there now and Liberatore is now suddenly a juicy option. Thanks to back-to-back 120-point scores, Assistant Coach has predicted him for a $60k cash boost in just a fortnight. By that time, you could simply swap him out for a fallen Premium, such as Swan/Ablett/Dangerfield/Redden, all of whom have BE’s over 140 this week.

I don’t recommend doing this kind of ‘bridging’ trade too often during the season, because it requires using two trades and trading a guy in that you don’t really want, let alone the risk associated with relying on price drops on your next trade target. But we’re in a unique position this week where two scores compound for a price-rise, whereas it’s normally just the one (as prices change every week once a player has established a three-week moving average), so we’re getting double the value with these snakes-and-ladders trades.

With a BE of 17, you can’t really go wrong. Monfries is a great DTer in the sense that he scores more than someone of his influence or talent probably should – plenty of uncontested +6 combos and opportunistic goals help with that. I know that sounds like a criticism but it’s really not. If you’ve got the $115k spare and already have JJK, then he could be worth a shot.

Yeah, absolutely. Maybe not happy, but content is a wise choice of words. What you get with Coxy is reliability – both in terms of consistency, as he’ll top 80 every week, as well as durability, given that’s he played 73 games on the trot. He’ll score a lot better against the weaker opposition too, which he hasn’t had with Freo and Hawthorn so far.

I’d be looking at the front-runner type of guys, which has pretty much been the entire Eagles midfield mindset in the first two rounds, barring Priddis. Scooter (131), Shuey (123), Gaff (117) and Masten (113) all dominated last time they played the Dees, although Jordie McKenzie went to Kerr that day. Pick one of the three that doesn’t get the tag – which is most likely to be Shuey, with a slight possibility it could be Gaff after Shiels destroyed him on Sunday.

• Crystal Ball

Round 3 is still a few days away, so let’s take a quick look at some long-range issues that need negotiating before lockout:

# Two-week forecast
Don’t forget that not all of our players change in price after Round 3. Popular fantasy options such as Heath Shaw and Montagna have played just the one game, as has the mid-priced Petterd. The advantage here is that we get another week to look at these guys before we’d have to commit to them, and it prevents us getting stuck in a log jam with pre-price change trades. The rookies get first preference however, and I’m hardly going out on a limb in saying that Crouch and Terlich will be two of the most traded-in players next week, when they’re on the bubble and everyone else has experienced their first price change.

# Gablett
Firstly, everyone who ridiculed me and others for not starting with Ablett can shove it. His BE is now 156, meaning he’s likely to drop $40k in the next fortnight. The question is – should you consider trading him out to a bolter like Moloney if you can? It’s tempting, but one look at the Suns’ upcoming fixture has me transfixed; over the next 6 weeks, they play the Lions, Port, GWS, Fremantle, Melbourne and the Bulldogs. Only the Dockers are finals contenders of that lot, and although Ablett doesn’t need to play easy opposition to score well… Surely it gets easier?

# FWD Premos
Where have all the gun forwards gone? That’s right, Beams, Sidebottom, Dangerfield and Zaharakis all lost their DPP last season… It’s a far cry from last year, where we were spoilt for choice up forward. I mean, Westhoff is the only forward currently averaging over 100?!

I can’t be the only one who’s unimpressed with the lack of choice down there – as a result, I’m considering pursuing a cash grab for Zorko until Thomas/Stevie J/Wellingham are fit and firing again.

# Danny Stanley
Are you alive?

# Fixture Trading
For those who are getting involved in fixture trading tactics (worked well for N. Riewoldt owners so far, not so much for Swan midfielders though), you’ll want to keep an eye out for GWS, Gold Coast, West Coast and Brisbane players over the next month. It’s for this reason that I’ll be keeping Scooter, for example, as the Eagles play Melbourne this week (who would he even tag?) then Carlton is the only finals contender that they facein the 6 games after that.

Well, that’s all from me this week! Given that this week is the most crucial week for trades all year, I tried to fit in as much as I could. If I didn’t help solve your problems, hit me up on twitter at @Tbetta9. Until then, let us know whether you’ll be going old school or YOLO with your trades this week in the comments!