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Why should I pick him?

Last year the was a breakout for the RedRock Berger combo with Redden and Rockliff making significant improvements to their average and Leuenberger was no different, taking his average from 77 to 93. Last year it took the Berger a few rounds to get going, not managing to score 100 until round 7 but from that point he never looked back. Over the next 17 weeks he managed 9 x 100+ scores and 13 games were over 90 throughout the period. So, due to his slow start the big fella is priced at 93 when he played the last 17 games at an average of 98 which can be seen as a nice little discount. A bonus with the Berger is that he has a massive ceiling (he would probably need one) boom tish. In round 21 vs the Gold Coast last year he collected 19 touches, had a whopping 42 hit outs and kicked 2 goals on his way to 140. One of the reasons that make Leuenberger such an attractive selection is he is able to maintain consistency through his dominance in the hit out department. Over the season he amassed 710 hit outs which are basically free DT points and it was that round 7 game which kick started his season where he dominated for 52. Over the last 17 games he managed 30 or more hit outs a total of 15 times. The Lions will make significant improvements of last years performance so that should assist the big man in making a natural progression toward a 100 point average. After early concerns about durability in his career, he has put together back to back seasons of 22 games which is impressive for the big guy who has been labeled the next Dean Cox.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Last season the Berger was doing the bulk of the ruck work alone, allowing him to pick up hit outs at will. In the off season the Lions pulled a surprise move drafting fellow ruck Ben Hudson. Assuming Hudson plays, and I think they selected him for more than a safety, you would have to assume Leuenbergers total hit out and game time will drop, negatively affecting his DT output. Another reason not to pick him is that his bye falls with a lot of other popular rucks including Jacobs, Cox, Giles, Goldstein and McIntosh.

Deck of DT Rating:

King- Although there is a slight concern about Hudson taking some time from the Berger in the middle, he is such a good player that he will likely remain on the ground and rest as a secondary forward filling the role that Mitch Clark sucked at (he is much better than Clark so will dominate) last year. I think this bloke is a champion and he will not let you down.

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Why should I pick him? Last year Marc Murphy took his game from good to great and this was reflected by an increase of 12 points per game. He now stands as one of the elite players in the competition and will now come at an inflated price, however he ticks a number of boxes that mean he needs to at least be considered. Murphy is a hard working ball magnet who last year collected 30+ disposals on 11 occasions and racked up 100+ DT points in 16 of his 22 games including an impressive score of 145 in round 10 vs the Demons showing he has captain qualities. Although at times he cops a tag, it is usually a secondary one as the main defensive focus tends to go towards Judd and this year Murphy proved he can score effectively when faced with the negative attention where in the past doubts had lingered over his ability to do so. Marc has proven over his career that he is unbelievably durable, only missing 1 match in the last 5 years and its nice to have premium players that you can be confident will take the park on a weekly basis. As Carlton’s bye falls in round 13, his selection would limit the damage through the bye rounds due to a minimal  number of premium mids set to miss that round with Gibbs, Mitchell and Ablett the main ones in my eyes.

Why shouldn’t I pick him? There are not many reasons why Marc shouldn’t be selected. An argument could be made that it has taken him 6 years to make that significant leap to the elite level and he will likely not make another improvement in average. It has already been well publicized that Bryce Gibbs will have an increased role through the midfield and that “time” needs to come from somewhere meaning Marc will possibly be pushed out of the middle on a more regular basis.

Deck of DT Rating: King- Marc is an absolute gun and part of a significantly improving team which is why I think he will push Ace status by the end of the year. Even if Marc’s midfield time did decreased, it will not be enough to negatively affect his scoring and may actually give him the opportunity to kick a few more goals to add to his already respectable 19 last year. If you like Murph, there is no reason not to pick him, he is reliable and will improve again. Structure is the only reason he is unlikely to line up for destROY as I currently have my original “boy” Gibbsy in there.

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 Why should I pick him? Jack Redden is an absolute jet, and last year was the perfect example of the 3^rd year breakout rule. In his first 2 years, Reddo definitely showed he was going to be a star, averaging 67 and 79 before improving on that by a massive 30 points per game in 2011. Jack is a hard worker who is always eager to make a contest which is reassuring from a coach’s perspective because there is nothing worse than watching your players when they seem disinterested. Throughout last year, Jack proved to be a good ball winner, usually collecting around 25 possessions per game but it was his elite tackling that made him the star DT performer we have today. Last year there was only 3 occasions where Jack managed less than 5 tackles and his good days more than made up for it, laying more than 12 tackles in 5 contests. Testament to his hard work, Reddo consistently racks up an impressive number of marks, totaling 119 for the season. When studying the byes, Brisbane avoid many of the popular premiums from other teams, making his selection attractive to those chasing the car.

Why shouldn’t I pick him? The only real reason I could say not to pick Reddo is if he doesn’t fit into your structure. After such an outstanding year, he is now priced above big names such as Scott Thompson (who has been blessed with a very easy draw), the ever reliable Matt Priddis and returning hero Micheal Barlow. Another reason you may not pick Jack is if you decide to select his partner in crime Rockliff. As much as we would all love to have the RedRock combo, the bye is a big spanner in the works.

Deck of DT Rating: King. With popular belief that Brisbane will improve considerably this year, there is no reason Jack won’t naturally follow that progression and become one of the elite Dream Teamers in the competition. An advantage he holds for a developing superstar is that he is not in immediate danger of copping a tag due to the likes of big ball winners Black and Rockliff, or the dangerous Rich copping the most attention. When I asked his mate Rockliff how Reddo was tracking in pre season he said “going very well! Needs to stop worrying about his hair and he will be fine”.

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Why should I pick him? Prior to an injury plagued season in 2011, Brian Lake was coming off a career best year, averaging a whopping 99.7 which was over 18 better than any of his previous 8 years. Throughout that year he was of of the standout defenders and one of few back there capable of big 100’s, which he managed 12 times. The highlight of his breakout year was round 9 vs North Melbourne where he collected 41 possessions and 22 marks on his way to a lazy 192 (no, that is not a typo). When Lake is injury free and playing his best football be is an outstanding mark, whether it be in a contested situation, switching play or my favorite Lakey move of running the clock down with some kick to kick. Either way, marks were a massive contributor to his scoring, racking up double figures on 11 occasions. He can also be a good accumulator of the ball for a defender, 15 times collecting over 20 touches in 2010. Before last season, Lake was a very durable player, missing just 2 games in 6 years.

Why shouldn’t I pick him? Brian is approaching his 30^th year which is an automatic cut off for many coaches, especially considering his horrible run of injuries at the age of 29. Its fair to say the odds are against the big fella having an uninterrupted season. In 2011, the combination of injuries and the consequential loss of confidence, left Lake looking like he had forgotten how to actually play the game and his basic skill errors increased to the point his selection in the best 22 was questionable. Even if he has an uninterrupted pre season, there is every chance the Dogs new style of play won’t allow him to score in his free flowing 2010 fashion which was assisted by the Dogs having a top 4 caliber lineup.

Deck of DT Rating: Jack- There is no doubt that Lake provides value at his deflated price given what he was capable of just 2 seasons ago. There would be a lot of risk with this selection but if he has a good pre season, and is a lock for their best 22, it is possibly a risk worth taking. Despite his age and obvious high risk, its hard to ignore that a season and a half ago he scored 192, How many players can you say that about? At this stage he is a 60% chance of lining up with destROY.

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Why should I pick him?

In 2011, my boy Rocky had a secondary breakout where he took his average from 87 to the brink of DT elitism 112. One of the best things about Rockliff, apart from being a top bloke is that fact he puts in 100% each week. No matter the opposition or result, he never leaves a coach disappointed through lack of effort. Over his first 9 games last year, Rocky made steady improvements from the previous year, and looked on track to average around 100. Throughout this period, Rocky managed 4 outstanding 100’s which included 2 impressive scores over 130, and 5 sub ton scores of which only 2 were below 90, one of which was caused by an injury that resulted in being subbed off and consequentially miss the next 2 weeks. From this point, the real Tom Rockliff stood up, absolutely dominating the competition and showing why he was elevated to the leadership group despite lacking the experience of some of his teammates (He was also elevated to the leadership group of destROY on a number of occasions throughout the year). From round 13 to 24, Rocky showed he is ready to be considered in the elite group, topping the 100 point mark on every occasion including 10 scores over 110 and an awesome 151 vs the Eagles, eventually averaging 121 during this 12 week block. There are concerns that his brilliance will be recognized by opposition clubs and he will attract more negative attention from taggers, but while Simon Black is still playing, he seems to be a walkup to cop the number 1 most weeks. Apart from being a ball magnet, you have to respect Rocky’s all round game which is why he was able to score so consistently throughout the second half of the year. He is great at working to space for marks and on 2 occasions last year he managed double figures in the category, while he is also an outstanding tackler, registering 13 and 14 in his last 2 games of the year.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

The only frustration from a coach’s perspective in regard to having Rockliff in your lineup is his teammate’s lack of ability to kick it to him. When I went to watch the Lions vs Hawks at Aurora Stadium, there was 3 occasions where he was open by 20 metres on the back flank, twice the ball went flying past him out of bounds and the other turned into a contested possession on the ground (which he won of course) but it cost him 3 points for a mark. As mentioned above, coaches must be prepared for Rockliff to receive close attention at times throughout the year.

Deck of DT Rating:

King- With an average of 112 for the year, Rockliff is considered a King although his form over the last 10+ weeks was definitely worthy of Ace status. This guy is an absolute machine, and is part of an improving Lions team which will be beneficial to his scoring potential. If you are scared off by Swan’s price, Rocky is your man. Get him in either as a single purchase or potentially part of the RedRock Berger combo. After tweeting Jack Redden and Rockliff about his pre-season progress, Rocky assured me he was flying, while Reddo seemed convinced he is fit, despite his inability to “lose his puppy fat”. I love the fact he has spent time in Arizona this pre season, look what that did for Swannie in the second half of last year. His chance of starting in destROY is 99.9%, ah who am I kidding? 110%.

Follow me on Twitter: @RoyDT | Follow Rocky: @rockwiz38 | Follow Reddo: @reddo30

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Why should I pick him? Bryce Gibbs is a gun who is on the verge of becoming a weapon of mass destruction. Last year the selection of Gibbsy was easy due to his DPP eligibility as a def/mid but this year it is not so straight forward as his defender status has been stripped. It is important that we ignore the bonus of last year and now just put him in the category of developing midfield stars looking to take their game to a new level. Throughout the early stages of last year, Gibbs was given a variety of roles which lead to some inconsistent scores. After starting the year brilliantly with 147 and 144 in his first 2 hit outs, he let coaches down by not producing another triple figure score for 5 weeks. On the back of this, he doesn’t look like a very tempting prospect, however the second half of the year presented him with a far more attacking midfield/forward role where he managed to kick multiple goals in 6 of his last 7 games and was far more consistent and damaging from a DT perspective. The killer stat that must throw him into contention is the fact that between the rounds of 16 and 24 he never dropped under the 100 point mark and only twice dropped below 110. Infact, over this period he was on par with the elite averaging 121. This should be a sign of things to come from the young star who will play predominantly throughout the midfield and should avoid the tags that tend to follow Judd and Murphy. Although Bryce missed the all important final for the Blues last year, you won’t find many more durable players in the league. Throughout the home and away season, Gibbsy has only missed 1 game in his 5 year career.

Why shouldn’t I pick him? The fact that Bryce is such a team player, can hurt his scores, especially given the fact that he is more than capable of shutting down superstars and could be called upon from time to time to fill this role. The only other negative is there is a lot of competition from young stars looking to take their game to a new level who are priced in a similar bracket to Gibbs.

Deck of DT Rating: King- It’s only a matter of time until Bryce reaches the level of All Australian and DT Ace. His average over the last 9 weeks of the season clearly showed his potential and given the right role within the team next year, Gibbsy with be right up there with the stars who elevate their game to greater heights. It is also reassuring to hear coach Brett Ratten claiming that Bryce is ready to put his hand up and challenge for the title of the clubs best midfielder, surpassing that of Judd and Murphy. Having said this, and with my complete confidence he will improve on last years average, his awkward price leaves him only a 30% chance to line up for destROY in round 1.

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Why should I pick him? The last two years, Matty Boyd has elevated himself into the elite premium category, not only pumping out captain worthy scores almost every time he hits the park, but doing it without missing games in-between. His average of 116 was the 3^rd highest of any player in the competition last year and despite being 29 years old, it was his personal best. 2010 was a breakout year for Boyd in DT where he took his average from 103 to 115 and he doesn’t look like dropping off during what he has described as the most grueling pre season of his career. Despite the increased pre season load, Boyd is continually a front runner and showing the way to his younger teammates. In the last 6 years, Boyd has missed just 2 games through injury which is durability that can be matched by few stars of the competition. Last year, Matty managed top the 100 point mark on 17 occasions which included some absolute thumpers of 155 and 162, while breaking the 120 barrier an impressive 9 times.

Why shouldn’t I pick him? Although he has a strong history of durability, the fact that he is turning 30 next year immediately rules him out of many sides due to age. Unfortunately for the Dogs, next year they only play the GC (125 in 2011), Freo (155 and 162 in 2011) and GWS once each throughout 2012 which will supply Boyd with less easy scoring opportunities than some cheaper premium midfield options (man he is brutal to Freo). Trying to find negatives for such a great competitor is hard, so I’ll throw this out there with no real conviction: Over the last few years there has been little competition for time through the middle but Adam Cooney must be getting close to a return to the centre which could mean Boyd is given a rest more frequently as opposed to being at almost every contest.

Deck of DT Rating: ACE-The Dogs are fresh and invigorated after a poor showing last year and seem to have a new lease on life under new coach Brendan McCartney. Even if the new game plan doesn’t work out, Boyd still has the ability to stand up and score well when the rest of the group is being comfortably defeated, so any team improvement will be an added bonus here and possibly cause a slight increase in average. Although I think he is a jet and will not drop off, at this price and with a less than favourable draw, Boyd is only a 10% chance to begin the season with destROY.

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Why should I pick him? Two years ago, the selection of Mitch Robinson would have seemed crazy, but on the back of a breakout season where he averaged 92 from 21 games, the prospect is no longer a joke, and in fact could prove to be a master stroke this season. Robinson’s selection prospects have also increased dramatically with the addition of dual positioning an extremely handy feather in his cap. With Robinson’s continual rise over the first three years of his career and the likelihood of the Blues continuing their development, there is no reason he can’t average 100+ which will be more than competitive among similar priced forwards. An exciting temptation in regard to Robbo is his ability to go on with a ton. Last year he recorded some whoppers with 131, 141, 124 and a final round score of 126 in the loss to West Coast during the finals. Although the last thing Robinson would be aligned to is consistency, he had an amazing patch of good scores between the rounds of 10 and 21 where he scored under 90 just once.

Why shouldn’t I pick him? Let’s face it, Robbo is loose. Every time he attacks the ball he is in danger of concussion (vest effected), a season ending injury or suspension. Also, when Robbo is bad, he can be really bad which was evident in his performances last season where he posted scores of 56, 66, 47 and 39. At times he can be called upon to play very negative defensive roles by coach Brett Ratten which can limit his output and cause DT coaches massive frustration.

Deck of DT Rating: After such a good average last season, I have no option but to rate Robbo a King due to what will be a high asking price hanging over his head and the expectations that come with it. My natural instinct would be to call him a Queen but the high price means we need a 100 minimum average for it to be a truly successful pick. At the moment, I would rate him a 75-80% chance of making team destROY.

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Why should I pick him? Although my temptation is to jump straight into a preview of the RedRockBerger Combo, Browny is where I’m starting. To DT coaches, he is currently resembling the excited teacher’s pet, sitting on the mat with their legs crossed, hand raised and looking like they are about to burst with anticipation at the prospect of being picked to collect the newsletter at the office. Please pick me, pleeeeeease!!! Browny is not the kind of kid you ignore, he will make you regret it. The main reason he has turned back the clock and been thrust into the selection spotlight is due to a sub par performance in 2011, marred by horrific injury, underperforming teammates (not Rocky #mancrush), off field distractions and his customary injury interrupted pre season. Due to the reasons just mentioned, Brown was given the opportunity to pull stumps early on 2011 and get his body right. He is currently not missing a beat in the pre season for the first time in years, and appears to be over the niggling complaints that have slowed him down in recent seasons. This means a fit and determined Brown, who will have a new found confidence in his body to lead this young squad from the front. He will be determined to succeed and more importantly, play above his price tag of a 67 average. In the last 7 years, Brown’s worst average was 86 so expect him to at least be back in that ball park. The big fella should get off to a solid start with 6 out of his first 10 games at the GABBA and that include clashes with GC and GWS. He is the number 1 target and an unstoppable force it fit. Looms as a
massive bargain.

Why shouldn’t I pick him? Firstly he is the wrong side of 30 and we are talking about a guy who has managed to play just 2 out of 11 full seasons through his prime. Last year he managed to score triple figures on only one occasion so why should this year be any different? Especially with the loss of reliable team mates such as Luke Power, Mitch Clark and Brendan Fevola. OK, retract that, the words reliable and Fev or Clark should never meet in a sentence. Although he is an absolute superstar who is capable of 150+ scores, only once in his career has he average over 100, so why would this year be any different?

Deck of DT Rating. Queen – If you weigh up price vs potential, I think Browny is somebody everyone must consider, and if his injury free run continues during the pre season he jumps into the must have category. The Lions have quite a few young guns and will be an improved unit this year so the natural development of the team will also help his value and average rise from last year. At worst, he is an expensive cash cow while his body holds up, or decides to run face first into a team mates knee. Oh that’s right, Clark has gone! That can now be considered another positive in Browns advantage. My current consideration rating is 70%.

UPDATE: Our boy Tom Rockliff tweeded me and said Browny is in great form and would currently come into captain consideration. I am now up to 85% if his good with injuries continues run.

@RoyDT

Brent Stanton (454,900)

Name: Tom Rockliff
Price: 453,100
Av last 3: 128
AV last 5: 126
Opponent: Sydney
Thoughts: How many times have I tried to tell you its all about the Rockwizz. Yes I have a man crush etc. But why wouldn’t I when he has single handily got me into the GF and to a respectable national ranking. Is it scary that his next game is against Sydney at their home ground? I say no, not with 10 straight 100 point scores with only 1 of them being under 110. You are going to have him next year so you might as well get to know him this week.

Jobe Watson (348,100)

Name: Daniel Cross
Price: 351,100
Av last 3: 98
AV last 5: 89
Opponent: Fremantle @ES
Thoughts: In the last 3 weeks Cross has not dropped below 92 and should get among what should be a feeding frenzy of points against the Dockers. His scoring has increased since the Dogs coaching staff changed and he is as close to a premium as you will get for this lowly price.

Dyson Heppell (325,900)

Name: Grant Birchall
Price: 324,700
Av last 3: 96
AV last 5: 86
Opponent: GC
Thoughts: Birch is coming off a handy 113 which makes it 2 hundred point scores in the last 3 weeks and he is coming up against the DT friendly Suns. Last time Birch went up against the GC he had a handy 101, so expect much the same this week.

Dale Thomas (376,200)

Name: Liam Shiels
Price: 364,800
Av last 3: 91
AV last 5: 89
Opponent: GC
Thoughts: Although Shiels has been inconsistent of late, the Suns provide the perfect platform to get some runs on the board in the week leading up to finals. In the last 4 weeks he has had 2 hundred point scores. The beauty of Shiels is he has a high ceiling with a number of scores over 130 during the year. Be warned: has been up and down, but it could pay off.

Well, this is the last Trade Talk for the year, so you know the routine by now. Use this as a forum to discuss all things trade, and help each other out to make the right decisions.