The Friday Scramble: Round 17

Just three rounds to go now before the traditional fantasy finals start. That means you have just three weeks to get yourself into that top 8 (ideally the top 4) so that you can take out your league. But well before we get to that point we have some issues to deal with this week and look at some strategy in the run home. So without further ado Let’s Scramble!

Thursday Loophole (The Last Time)

So last night was our last Thursday night game for the season. And this means it was our last chance to play the loophole (unless you are a Supercoacher of course) for this season. So, let’s have a look at how Calvin’s options went.

Joel Selwood – 73  as he was tagged this week.
Mitch Duncan – 87
from just 23 possessions
Paddy Dangerfield – 151
and the top score in the game. Take this and lock and load it!
Matt Crouch – 94
whilst he still had 30 touches.
Rory Laird
 – 122 from a career high 43 touches.

The line was set by Calvin at a very specific 123 points and based on that the only one that we would take this week is Dangerfield. However, if you are a bit nervous about the rest of your team you could be more than forgiven if you took Laird’s score as normally we would set the line at 120.  Now of course the decision is entirely up to you. If you want to use your own line then go for it. Of course with your line you need to consider who you have as your captain options later in the round.

Trading Strategy

One of the questions we are seeing a bit lately is what people should do from here on out with their trading. Should they be consolidating their bench cover or should they be side swapping their underperforming premiums.

As always the answer to this question is going to be different based on whether you are playing AFL Fantasy or one of the two limited trades versions of the game. I am going to sort of talk a bit generally here but will mention if a strategy is more suited to one type or another.

Rookie Pickups.
I am still seeing a lot of questions on facebook and twitter from people asking about should I get rookie A or rookie B. At this stage of the season I am trying not to get rookies unless I am desperate to get some cash to do another trade. This is more likely to be relevant in AFL Fantasy unless you have a ton of trades in the others. If you are planning to bring a rookie in then for me the biggest factor for you is job security. There is no point bringing a guy in that is only going to play one game then get dropped again. This means that you don’t have any bench cover if that happens.
We know that the deeper we get into the season the chance of a late out grows and also the chance that you lose more than 2 players to injury/end of season surgery in a week also grows which makes the bench covers even more important. For me at this stage of the year their break even or ability to rise in price is secondary. If they are getting a game each week and have reasonable scoring ability then that is the key.

Premium Sideswapping.
Before we had two trades per week we would always say no to this. But now that we have two per week it is certainly a viable option. However, if you are going to do this make sure that you are more than happy to keep the player you trade to. I know that sounds obvious but a lot of players will look at trading for a matchup or a one week injury like Heeney from last week and then plan to get the original player back the following week. But, we know that anything can happen and if you then cop a couple of injuries the following week you may not be able to get the original guy back in.  So always make sure that if you bring someone for that one week that if you have to you are ok with keeping him.
If you are playing the limited trades versions of the game then the answer is a little different. Here we still don’t side swap premiums unless they are out for three weeks plus then you keep them and try and use your bench as cover. If you have no bench and it means a donut then you can consider making that sideways trade but that is generally the only circumstance you want to be thinking about that.

Selection Table

Not a bad week for us at selection, there were no surprises and we have only seen players come in with not much in terms of fantasy relevance going out that we didn’t know about already.

Kade Simpson makes his return from that late out last week. Hopefully he isn’t a late out again this week.
Logan Austin hurt his calf last week in the game against Port and looks like missing a week or two so trade in AF.
Joel Smith finds himself out of the side injured again. He has been a bit of a bust for us this year unfortunately.
Marcus Bontempelli is out as we knew earlier in the week as he had to have his appendix out after training the other night. This should see him miss a couple of weeks so he is probably a trade out.
Jack Macrae is back! But don’t go and rush him back in just yet. His BE is massive so he should drop in price over a couple of weeks and he will be ripe for the picking just before finals.
Toby Greene is back as well! But I wouldn’t go picking him either.
Both Kennedy and Darling are back in for the Eagles which will certainly help those that have these guys in draft leagues.
Heeney comes back in as we expected after that one week out with his concussion.

Image result for kade simpson

Things to Remember

  • If you are using the loophole this week make sure that you use someone who isn’t even an emergency for your loophole captain.
  • As always RDT and SC trades are sticky today.
  • Beware of late outs, it is this time of year they start to become a little more common

 

Best of luck everyone for this week. Just a couple of weeks to go to finals so hopefully you are well entrenched in that top 8 now and if not, don’t give up. Anything can happen. I for one am glad this was the last Thursday night for us as whilst it is good to watch footy on a Thursday it does make being a fantasy coach just that little bit harder!

63 Comments

  • 1. Curnow to Dusty
    Savage to Wingard

    2. Curnow to Heppell
    Savage to Walters/Lambert

    3. Rookie downgrade (Keep Curnow)
    Savage to Crisp

    4. Rookie downgrade (Keep Savage)
    Curnow to Beams/Sidebottom

    Want both Savage/Curnow gone but not sure what’s the best way to do it, both this week or one this week and the other next?

  • McLean or Whitfield (via Sicily DPP) ?

  • I have 840k in cash, which 1 of gaff, beams, pendles, oliver, cogs, dusty should i bring in? Worried about cash generation if i go all out on the uber premiums.

  • Will

    speaking of sideways premiums, i think its time to swap robbie gray for westhoff

  • Laird, Simpson, Whitfield, Sicily, Hurn, Doedee (Rice, Murphy)

    Mitchell, Gibbs, Yeo, Zerret, Coniglio, Neale, Croch, Dangerfield (Sier, J.Smith)

    Gawn, Martin (McInerny, Cameron)

    D.Smith, Rockliff, Menegola, Wingard, Fritsch, Ahern (J.Jones, Kerr)

    Should I trade;
    1. Rice for Lynch with $455k remaining
    Or
    2. Fritsch for Westhoff $236k remaining..

    Not sure whether to chase points or $!

    • id go with 1 cause i think fritta will be solid this week

    • I’d go with 2:

      Fritsch is dropping cash now, the Hoff been super consistent. Still leaves u good cash to play with next week and you’ve got a top 6 forward!

      In saying that, I dropped Taranto last week, thinking he was basically cooked and he scored 110+

  • 1 of beams, oliver, pendles

    • I like Oliver as a POD, but Beams in awesome form and goes big. Is it time for Beamer to throw in a quieter game this week? Idk.

      Can’t go wrong with Pendles either as a set & forget… likely won’t put in a low score, but may not produce match winning scores either!

  • Simpson or Brayshaw

    • Cheers for the replies!

      I think it’s 6 to one, half dozen to the other. But I’m concerned about Simpson potentially being a late out also! Which is why I considered bringing Lynch in.

  • The smart trade for me seems to be Fritta to Sicily. But I can’t fathom not getting Brayshaw in this week. If I go Howe to Brayshaw in the backline, then I can go Fritsch to Sic, Heeney or (hopefully) Danger in the fwd line next week, depending on who looks best after this round. Thoughts??

  • Wingard a good option? Looks good in the midfield

  • Hey Everyone, need ideas on what trades I should do this week, got 224k in bank

    Laird, Lloyd,Brayshaw, Sic dog, Simpson, Lynch( Murphy, Smith)

    Titch, Gibbs, Jelwood, Neale, Merrett, JPK, Crouch, Kelly

    Gawn, Stef( Cameron, Meek)

    Menagola, Rockliff, Gray, Mclean, Wingard, Ahern (Waterman,Petruccelle)

    • With Narkle and Sier on Mid bench

    • What are your ideas for yourself?

      If it’s T.Murphy, trade him to O’Riordan and upgrade Waterman to Heeney/Franklin or Hurley/Howe via Sicily DPP

      If it’s L.Murphy, trade Smith to O’Riordan and upgrade Waterman to the same bunch + Whitfield

  • I didn’t bring in or trade out any crows or Geelong players last night, but I did swap P Wilson from the midfield to the forward line via DPP (apparently had him emergency). I then traded out the player I swapped with him (Ahern) to a rookie midfielder only. The trade is now locked in …. anyway around this? I should still be able to roll this back given no-one played , surely?!

    • Unfortunately no, if he’s a Crows listed player and they played last night then he’s locked where he is. Essentially it’s to stop you trading or moving around a play you *know* didn’t play and therefore getting an advantage.

    • Nah, any movement involving a Crows or Cats player is locked..

      I got stung last week bringing in Hogan and moving Heeney to the MID bench via DPP, then deciding on Friday to go with Lambert instead, but not being able to do anything..

      This only happens with Thursday games, so need to plan better next year..

    • (Partial) lockout applies to all players from the teams – whether those individual players actually played or not.
      Lockout means no changes at all can be made (to any players from locked out teams) – includes trades, positional swaps, C and VC, emergencies etc.

      • Yeah, I can’t use Abbott as my VC loophole option for the same reason. Didn’t think that one through at all…

  • Hold or Trade Ed Curnow.

    • I traded out ECurnow this week – was my big move. What a huge let down, when I could have picked Gaff post their byes. No lesson to be learned, both had the runs on the board, 1 (Curnow) hasn’t scored beyond 90?), the other 1 (Gaff) been smashing the scores out.

      Huge BE this week – I just can’t afford further losses of cash, which is still important to me for further finals upgrades.

      All that said – he’ll likely go big this week with no tagging role!

      • Thanks Nostro,
        With Curnow, everything seems similar to before the byes except for his tackling numbers. Was getting 10-15 tackles before the byes and post byes (which is also when i got him :C) he is barely getting 5 – only 2 last week. Im not sure if i should trade him out as i feel he will lift these number and he has a favourable draw coming up.
        Just out of curiosity, who did you trade him to last week. I’ve got enough money to get him to anyone but i want to upgrade my D6 which is currently Brad Lynch (last rookie). Im thinking of trading him to Shuey to get some cash, Brayshaw (to complete my defence) or go big and get him to Gaff or just not trade him at all. What do you think? and who did u go to.

        • I’m trading Curnow this week as well – currently looking at one of Beams/Oliver/Steele/Cripps. As you mentioned Carlton’s run home is so good, almost wish I had other forced trades so I would have to hang onto him, but the way he’s plummeting in value have to move him on now.

          If it’s a question of Shuey & Brayshaw or get Gaff and play Lynch then I reckon go with the former.

  • shuey (95K) or Heppell (0K)??

    • Heppell for me. Shuey has had too many crap scores, and hasn’t gone big once. Heppell at $617k better value.

      • Shuey and the cash for me. On average, about 70k is worth 10 points so if you do the maths this desicion is whther you think Heppel is 13 points better tan Shuey and i think that he isnt. Shuey should be better than he has been and is starting to get into some decent form after an interrupted season – numbers should be on the rise. Shuey should be about 105 from this point on which you would take for a guy who are paying just over 500k for.

  • Upgrade Savage or Curnow?

    • Id go with Savage. Not too many consistent performers in the midfield this year and curnow can potentially go big if he rediscovers his form (key word = if). If i ws you, id keep it simple and upgrade Savage to a top 6 – laird, lloyd, brayshaw, yeo, simpson, whitfield – take your pick. If you dont have a money to afford one of these, then i reckon goddard is the best punt, i took it a couple of weeks ago and he has been serviceable. 102,99,83. Not too bad – 95ish average

  • want to do guelfi to westhoff

    what should my other trade be to get the money to do so?
    Curnow to Heppell/shuey
    or
    Mihocek to lynch

  • is it a viable option to bring in Freeman this week even though he is not playing with the lack of rookie option coming through in the midfield and forward lines. Should be playing either next week or the week after – saves a trade on the comp

    *saying that he will probably ping his hammy and pop his should this week in the VFL the silly salmon

  • Hey guys needs help, trading Gowers this week and mihocek

    Team so far
    DEF: Sicily, laird, Lloyd, yeo, brayshaw(trading mihocek to him) Simpson
    (Cummings, lynch)

    MIDS:Titch, t.phillips, Neale, gaff, crouch, cogs, sier and thought of trading gowers to Heppell but do have about $850,000
    (Smith, Wilson)

    RUCKS: Gawn, Jacobs (abbot, Cameron)

    FWDS: Tarant, Heeney, Gray, McLean, westhoff, d Smith(battle, ahern)

    Not sure if to get Heppell and keep $240,000 to upgrade sier or just get sidebum or pendles

    • id consider shuey this week instead of heppell which would give you an extra 100k on top of the 240k which you already have. Then next week, splash the cash on top of Jacobs to get to grundy. Ive owned grundy since like R4 and trust me, you are missing out on about 50 points each week by having jacobs instead of him. A ruck combo of two of Grundy Martin and Gawn is a must – you cannot afford to have anyone else.

  • Im in a position where i have ed curnow but want to upgrade my D6 (Lynch) wither this week or next week. These are my options: 1st trade is locked in – J.Smith to O’Riordan
    1. Curnow to Brayshaw (completes my defence and i get a top 6 defender)
    2. Curnow to Shuey (gives me enough funds to upgrade D6 next week)
    3. Curnow to Gaff (leaves me in a position where i might have to ride lynch for a couple of weeks at D6)
    4. Ballard to FWD rookie – probably polson eww. or Sier to Freeman (hoping he gets named next week and i would only do this trade if Sier is not named) – this means i keep curnow which i am somehow happy to do.

    was really hoping some quality Mid/Fwd rooks would be named this week but got burnt pretty bad.

    • Hmm, very tough… If you went option 1, who plays for Curnow in mids?

      Option 4 for me probably, and if you have an F7 that is playing I’d go Ballard to whatever $170k fwd rook is most likely to get a game. Nick Larkey is named for North, he could be an option?

      • Thanks Bjorn.
        I have Option 4 at the moment with Ballrd going down to Polson who is 180k and is playing. Im kinda hoping that he is just a guy with alright JS that i can just rie out for the rest of the year top have an emergency. I don’t think a young player player like him should get dropped the way carlton is going and who knows he might get a run in the midfield late in the season if Carlton want to try things.
        If i went option 1, brayshaw would still be in the mids and brad lynch would be on my field and then next i would change it. I was originally planning on having Ahern on field and switching brayshaw to defence straight away however, my Mid/Fwd link was Pat Wilson and he is locked in from last nights game.

    • Lynch seems to be holding his own at the moment.

      Is Ballard really the only rookie option you have to trade?
      See is any rookie options are available with sunday bench selections.

      You can easily just put Polson in f8 and forget at this stage.

      Cash generation isnt as important this stage of the year and JS is good for Polson.

  • Have only doedee to upgrade for next week. With two trades should I move on 2 of buddy curnow Neale? No cash left. Doesn’t leave me much as Sloane and danger have already played.

  • Complicated choices for me this week.

    1. Laird VC yes or no
    2. Should I take Seedsman lacklustre 68 from bench loophole or trade lynch in on field
    3. Should I leave seedsman on bench and trade whitman/sicily in on field but have an extra rookie on field (sier or giro)
    4. If Sier is out Should I take Narkles lacklustre 58, or upgrade giro instead of Ronke.

  • 1. Yes, even if gawn/mitchell go 140, youre only missing out on 18 points. Not worth the risk (injuries e.g concussion etc) – lock and load the 122
    2. It depends if you want to take the risk. Personally, i would field lynch as i reckon he will score a tick over 70 – he scored 72 points last week with 3 frees against and looked quite impressive. However, not sure the gain of 7-10 points is worth the risk of a poor score of injury/chnage of role.
    3. I like this opition instead of fielding Lynch as you gain 30-40 points on top of Seedsman’s score and get a top 6 defender in the process which you’ll keep till the end.
    4. Depends on who you can get to, you want a genuine premium at this time of year. If you can get to a top midfielder then this is definitely the right option however if you are struggling for cash – luke shuey could be an option. Priced at 522k and capable of going 100-110 for the rest of the year in an impressive WCE’s midfield.

    I think whether you go 3 or 4 depends of Sier being named. If he is then id grab whitfield/sicily and field Sier (id field sier over giro as sier’s 51 last week was from just 60ish% TOG which shows he was still scoring at a decent rate. The week before his TOG was higher and scored 80ish as a result, giro has never surpassed 71). If he isnt named, then id upgrade Sier depending on who you can get to.
    Can u respond to my question directly above? in a bit of trouble like you it seems. :D

    • This is responding to Shags

    • 3. Means extra rookie on field (sier or giro) so essentially banking them to get 70 or higher. As shit a score 68 is for a “premo” seems to be an acceptable score for a rookie.
      I still might roll the dice on Lynch tho.

      If either Giro/Sier are out I can choose to take Narkels 58 or not. This one is a lil tricky. I’ll call it when sunday team sheets are out.

      Yeah I’ll take the 122 from Laird.

  • 1. Gaff and Lynch (keep cash for upgrades next week, but have extra rookie on fiwld this week)
    2. Gaff and sub 670k premo in mid (HepD, Steven, Parker, Wines, JPK or even Dusty ).
    3. Gaff and Whitfield (replace Seedsman with whitfield next week)
    4. Beams and sub 737k premo in mid (Oliver, Sidebum + same list above)

  • RDT, Which trades are best???
    1. Howe to Lynch bringing Doedee onto the field and then Guefli to Devon Smith…
    2. Rice to Lynch bringing Doedee onto the field and then Guelfi to Sicily..
    1. leaves me with $197,800
    2. leaves me with $2,900
    think 1 is best personally and will hopefully get me the win

  • Hey Lads

    I’m doing the Draft version of fantasy
    I need help picking a ruck for this weekend between Nankervis and C.Sinclair
    Who should I field?

    Cheers

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