How do you Compare to the Top 250 AFL Fantasy Coaches?

It’s week 7 of the AFL Fantasy competition and now we can see patterns in the team make-up of the top coaches and more importantly, which players are the pick of the bunch.  So again, this year I ask, “How do I compare with the top 200 AFL Fantasy Coaches?”.

As we are starting to get settled into our normal routine, just remember, the bye rounds are coming! Last year, before the bye, my team (Ricontop) was in the top 5 AFL Fantasy list. The bye rounds destroyed me and my team never fully recovered from it.  Plan your trades and when upgrading consider how many players you will have out for each bye.

Just remember like last year, just when you think you know what you are doing, team selection will teach you, you can’t always plan for everything.

I have analysed the data of the top 250 AFL Fantasy coaches. The vanilla side consists of the players listed below. My team has 16/22 of the vanilla selection as per listed below.

DEF

Murray (99%), Laird (98%), Doedee (96%), Finlayson (77%), Llyod (49%), Seedsman (36%)

MID

 Mitchell (99%), Kelly (86%), Coniglio (85%), Z. Merrett (73%), Fyfe (60%), Neale (50%), Treloar (37%), O’Meara (35%), 

RUC

Gawn (100%), Martin (58%)

FWD 

Smith (83%), Heeney (80%), Taranto (62%), Gray (56%), English (42%), McLean (42%)

 

Defenders

D1 S. Murray $464K Ownership 63% Top 250 Ownership 99%

D2 R. Laird $758K Ownership 69% Top 250 Ownership 98%

D3 T. Doedee $430K Ownership 62% Top 250 Ownership 96%

D4 J. Finlayson $414K Ownership 50% Top 250 Ownership 77%

D5 J. Lloyd $610K Ownership 29% Top 250 Ownership 49%

D6 P. Seedsman $653K Ownership 25% Top 250 Ownership 36%

These six players represent the most common defenders in the top 250. Haven’t the top 4 defenders listed above given us good service in the backline? On the top of that list is R. Laird, he is in 98% of the teams. If you don’t have him in your backline, then its highly probable that your team is sitting outside the top 1000.  He is the clear standout premium in the backline. At the beginning of the year, I was more bullish on picking K. Simpson as my D1 and hasn’t that backfired? Who do you think will be in the list of the top 6 defenders by this year’s end?

There has been a lot of discussion in the twitterverse in relation to upgrading Finlayson and Doedee on the backline because they look tired and both have reached their money-making peak.  While the aim of the game is to “upgrade faster than anyone else”, I would err on the side of caution when upgrading the backline.  Apart from Laird, premium defenders have been very inconsistent.  I’m looking at you Hibberd. However, if you are asking for a unique pick in the top 250, I like Sicily and Whitfield.

Sicily $594K Ownership 11% Top 250 Ownership 10.4%

Whitfield $627K Ownership 8% Top 250 Ownership 12%

Image result for lachie whitfield 2018 gwsgiants.com.au

Midfielders

M1 T. Mitchell $835K Ownership 70% Top 250 Ownership 99%

M2 T. Kelly $486K Ownership 49% Top 250 Ownership 86%

M3 S. Coniglio $753K Ownership 31% Top 250 Ownership 85%

M4 Z. Merrett $648K Ownership 28% Top 250 Ownership 73%

M5 N. Fyfe $761K Ownership 33% Top 250 Ownership 60%

M6 L. Neale $702K Ownership 13% Top 250 Ownership 50%

M7 A. Treloar $776K Ownership 11% Top 250 Ownership 37%

M8 J. O’Meara $564K Ownership 30% Top 250 Ownership 35%

These eight players represent the most common midfielders in the top 250.  While most will not be surprised with T. Mitchell (99% ownership) on top of the AFL Fantasy midfielder thus far, the list is missing one significant other pig. Apart from Rocky, Dangerfield is the other player that is not in the list of the top 8 AFL Fantasy midfielders. This time last year Dangerfield was in about 90% of the top 300 teams. Currently he is owned by only 10% of the top 250 coaches!

If you are upgrading, the midfield is where we are getting consistent scores from our premiums.  I know that there are players like Merrett and Zorko that are stretching the meaning of the word “consistent”, but I still say upgrade your mids first. For those that follow me in Twitter and asked me about bringing in Merrett in your team, I still believe that he is value (…gulp). If you are upgrading a midfielder and you can’t afford Macrae, I like both M. Crouch and JPK.  JPK especially, he has a habit of stringing 100’s when he gets on a run. He is currently owned by 1 of the top 250 coaches.

Macrae $826K Ownership 8% Top 250 Ownership 24%

Crouch $662K Ownership 5% Top 250 Ownership 2%

J.P Kennedy $607K Ownership 3% Top 250 Ownership <1%

Image result for matt crouch 2018 620 afc.com.au

Ruck

R1 M. Gawn $790K Ownership 51% Top 250 Ownership 100%

R2 S. Martin $736K Ownership 17% Top 250 Ownership 58%

Gawn and Martin are the most selected players in the rucks. Gawn has been belting it lately so much that coaches have no fear in selecting him as their Captain and hasn’t he repaid them well?  Martin on the other hand has been very consistent. Natainui (20%), Grundy (8%), Jacobs (4%) and Sinclair (3%) make the bulk of the most popular rucks in the top 250.  If cash is an issue, my top pick is S. Jacobs. He is currently in only 4% of the top 250 teams and is priced at $633K.

Grundy $793K Ownership 20% Top 250 Ownership 8%

Jacobs $633K Ownership 12% Top 250 Ownership 4% 

Image result for brodie grundy 2018 620 collingwoodfc.com.au

Forwards

F1 D. Smith $620K Ownership 29% Top 250 Ownership 83%

F2 I. Heeney $644K Ownership 48% Top 250 Ownership 80%

F3 T. Taranto $602K Ownership 27% Top 250 Ownership 62%

F4 R. Gray $693K Ownership 29% Top 250 Ownership 56%

F5 T. English $425K Ownership 53% Top 250 Ownership 42%

F6 T. McLean $671K Ownership 8% Top 250 Ownership 42%

These six players represent the most common forwards in the top 250 teams.  One notable exclusion from this list is J. Billings. However, he is still owned by 22% of the top 250 coaches. As an owner, I look at Billing’s score each week, “put him on notice” and yet he makes the cut, week in week out for team Ricontop. At the top of this list is D. Smith, his scores so far have been very consistent.  Consistency is something I value in the forward line so if you are looking at upgrading your F5 or F6 my pick is M. Robinson.

Menegola $646K Ownership 19% Top 250 Ownership 8%

Robinson $631K Ownership 7% Top 250 Ownership 14%

Image result for mitch robinson 2018 lions.com.au

Each week, after “lock-out” I do an analysis of the top 100 AFL Fantasy coaches. If you want to get this information, make sure you follow me on Twitter.

How did you compare?

Add me on Twitter @magtuto and go unique!

26 Comments

  • Fooz

    Very interesting reading.
    I also have 16/22 of the vanilla squad.
    However, the rest of my squad is just made of spuds…, hence why I’m out at 23,000th

  • Bugger, I’ve only got 14… BUT I’ll have 15 if I go with Big Stef this week!!! ARGH, it’ll still be 14 because I’ll be ditching English to do so…

    When does the 2019 Deck of Cards start?!?!

  • I’ve only got 10, hence my year is cooked.

  • Error in your ruck listing. Gawn & Martin, not Martin & Martin’ Also should: “Consistency is something I value in the forward line so if you are looking at upgrading your M5 or M6 my pick is M. Robinson” read “F5 or F6”?

    I have 17 of the 20. So why did I score only 1930 in round 7, 46,885th ranked for the round and 4842th over all.

    • you seem to be all over everything you even have the time to critique this article so you should be able to answer that one for yourself

    • The aim of the game is to upgrade quicker than anyone. Speaka na is in there. So aim is to upgrade him to someone consistent (a gun). When I see that list I look for unique and consistent players and try to bring him in. There’s a lot of details in those graphs.

  • I have the exact same team as the bloke coming 74th.

  • You see….the issue always comes down to luck, rather than skill, for those that take a keen interest in the game. I’ve been pushing for a while now to somehow have the opportunity to make 3 changes either early in the season (first 2 games) or hold them until they are needed.

    The problem is, and it happens every year, that potential good ‘coaches’ just fall off the radar with a run of bad luck. So, by midway through the season so many of the leagues have many inactive coaches.

    It’s hard to ‘comeback’ when you are always making forced changed, either through injury or suspension. Having the opportunity to make 3 changes (likely twice only) to hopefully get back on track would make a huge difference to many coaches.

    I want the competition to be close, but more importantly remain active for a full season & not see so many fall by the wayside.

    I’m not having a personal whinge, I’m doing ok (tracking just under 6000)…..15 of the vanilla squad in my team. It just becomes way too awkward, no impossible after a certain amount of games to make a decent run.

    And when you try to become ‘clever’ bringing in a POD, typically there’s a reason why such a player is a POD, especially mid-tier, when you don’t have enough loot to upgrade, cause you’re busy losing $$$ with injuries. So, such ploys are usually fraught with high risk for a reason. High risk – more than likely big flop!

    Players such as Billings remain in so many teams cause there is the ongoing need to bring in players, rather than strategically upgrade. The teams’ problem is then compounded further as holding a Billings’ type means you’ll lose significant cash and the opportunity for decent upgrades diminish.

    BTW – I do believe that having just those extra 2 weeks with 3 trade weeks, the game will be more skillful and not easier. The game is only easy when teams have few injury concerns etc.

    Keep plugging away guys.

    Oh yeah….I’m not sure if I’ve said this before (lol)…but…Bluebaggers for Wooden Spoon. Couldn’t happen to a nicer Club!!

    • I agree with you somewhat on the 3 trades rule. Give us all 47 odd trades or whatever it is at the start of the year, to use when we want. Put a trading cap of 3 per week on, and during byes, give us umlimited trades. This might bring some more strategy into the game, but also may make it more like supercoach. Oh I don’t know. (As Matt says) This game sh*ts me….

    • The game is a marathon, not a sprint. Everyone will have injuries/suspensions etc throughout the season, what separates the men from the boys, is how you deal with it. If a coach is dropping out mid year because they’re so far behind, then they’re not a good coach to begin with.

      Rarely are you going to have 3+ injuries/suspensions in a week, and exponentially less likely that it’s going to happen week after week. Everyone has to deal with carnage occasionally, if someone hasn’t built their team well enough to be flexible and deal with it, then again, they don’t deserve to win.

      Of course it’s hard to comeback, coaches at the pointy end have made the majority of their decisions the correct ones, while the ones at the bottom haven’t. What point would there be to playing the game if you make all the right decisions, but the guy who doesn’t, is on equal footing by the end?

      Risk/reward is an inherent part of the gaame. Make the right decision you win, make the wronf one and you lose. That’s how it should be.

      You’re ultimately arguing for a system that makes it harder for good players to get ahead, all for the sake of keeping it close and looking after coaches that don’t put in the hard work. That’s ridiculous. This is a competition, not some pikitically correct football equality game, where we all get to pick whatever players we want and be equal at the end.

      Don’t agree at all.

      • “Everyone will have injuries/suspensions etc throughout the season, what separates the men from the boys, is how you deal with it.”

        Gambler’s fallacy. Just because you’ve had good luck early in the season doesn’t mean you’ll have bad luck late in the season and vice versa. Indeed, those players who do well will be players who know what there’re doing but also who have relatively little bad luck. Bad luck costs points, cash, and limits your opportunities (i.e., when you’re forced to trade an injured player rather than improving your team).

        • “those players who do well will be players who know what there’re doing but also who have relatively little bad luck”

          Yep, and I reckon that’s exactly how the game should be.

          No coaches (afl or fantasy) can always know when injury will strike – or suspensions for that matter. So there will always be an element of luck involved.

          But better coaches try to plan and be prepared for possible carnage – by being alert to players’ injury & suspension histories, maintaining viable bench cover for late outs, keeping the cash generation going and not letting the kitty run dry etc.

          So to that extent these coaches will probably cope better when the ‘bad luck’ (carnage) happens than those more shortsighted coaches who focus too much on chasing big points from round to round.

          And there’s quite a bit of ‘good’ luck involved in this caper too! A pretty mediocre, aka non-fantasy-relevant player can have a bust-out game with a ridiculously big score. And I’ve seen fantasy teams chock-full of “what-the-hell-is-he-doing-there?” players go bloody huge and stun everyone (including their coaches) over a weekend. I’m sure we’ve all been there – being totally gobsmacked and outraged on a Sunday night after losing your match-up to a team of complete rabble!?

          If coaches want to pack up their bats and go home because they’ve copped a whack or two and can’t face working their way through it then no worries, no skin off my nose. Perhaps they could go play the stock market instead? (And maybe come back next season with a different fantasy strategy and attitude?)

          Good luck to us all in 2018! Footy Rocks!

        • It’s not a gamblers fallacy at all, it’s probability. And at no point did I make the argument that having good/bad luck at the start means the flipside at the end of the season, that’s an incorrect conclusion you’ve arrived at due to poor comprehension.

          Toss 30 coins a week for 22 weeks and you’re going to come up with a few tails. You will have weeks where your players get injured, suspended etc, it’s just the nature of the game. That’s an aspect of the game we all have to deal with, but the good coaches deal with it better than the bad ones.

      • You’re totally missing the point JungleMuffin. Clearly, those coaches that are having issues through injury, suspension or even form will never win, nor would I expect them to do so.

        What I am referring to is allowing an extra trade, say twice a year, either early on (1st 6 rounds?) or maybe as required to assist those who have had some bad luck or maybe just made some poor choices early on.

        Any coach that pays attention is aware of the better players (historically) and those that by in large aren’t fantasy relevant.

        I am not thinking such a system will allow a team that experiences some carnage to win (as you state), that wouldn’t make such a huge difference.

        Given, I’ve been playing since the very early days of this game, it is just a shame to see large numbers begin, with way too many giving up long before the end.

        Why do they give up I ask myself? Is it because they think they can’t win? No, far from it….it is because they can’t form a competitive team to play and have fun with on a weekly basis.

        Have these teams been riddled with bad luck or maybe the coaches have made uninformed choices (be it that they are new or just didn’t have the time to research perhaps)? Really it doesn’t matter.

        I would like the comp to be better for a larger majority. Those in front will remain in front. Those struggling may just get a slight reprieve and have the opportunity to make some beneficial changes to assist their competitiveness.

        If you really think that an extra 2 picks over an entire year would change the game to some kind of ‘politically correct football equality game, where we all get to pick whatever players we want and be equal at the end’, then clearly you’ve not understood what I was talking about.

        Cheers!!!

        • You said it yourself: You want a couple of extra trades for coaches that make bad decisions. That is the crux of your argument.

          I guarantee you, the coaches that finish top 10 WILL have injuries/suspensions/omissions/poor form to their players. The thing is, you’ve got an incorrect belief that it doesn’t happen to them, and they’re only high ranked because of luck. That’s wrong. It’s not luck when year after year, after year, it’s the same good coaches who rank high, and the same poor coaches that don’t.

          You’re just unable to aknowledge responsibility for poor coaching decisions, which prevents you from learning from them and making the right ones next time.

          The players that give up 1-2 months into the season don’t give up because they aren’t likely to win the car, or because they can’t win their league, or can’t field a kickarse tram, they do it because they’re not overly dedicated to it in the first place. It’s just a bit of fun for them that they enjoy for a few weeks here and there, forget about it for a month, come bak to it etc.

          The only person that doesn’t understand things is you. You think people take the same as seriously as you, when they don’t. Not everyone that plays this game takes it as seriously as people the people that post on DTT. Not everyone wants to dedicates hours and hours a week for 6 months a year on a game. A couple of extra trades isn’t going to convince people to spend 6 months of their life for something that is essentially pointless.

          I’m able to field a ‘competitive side’ year after year, after year, yet didn’t play for the last 5 years, because I’m not interested in wasting so much time on a meaningless game. I signed up this year on a whim and would have already lost interest if not for being a reasonable shot at a prize, despite again having a ‘competent team’.

          That’s the issue, not your bullshit theory about being able to field a competitive side. People just aren’t as interested in wasting their life on Fantasy Football as you are.

    • Hmm, all I’ve got to say is “Go Bombers!”

  • I have 12 out of those 22 guys. I already have 5/9 of those upgrade targets! Sitting 3777 overall.
    I’ll need Whitfield, Macrae, Grundy, Menegola and Robinson to have huge scores to catch up!

  • It would be interesting to know how many in the top 250 have English up forward. I think it will be less than 39.6% (out of the 41.6% who own him), meaning Fritsch is actually the 6th most popular forward in the top 250.

  • i got 15 of these sitting at 900 odd overall

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