The Friday Scramble: Round 3

In the words of some person in some movie “Shit’s about to get real”.  Things have already been happening in AFL Fantasy, but in Real Dreamteam and Supercoach we now get ourselves into the realm of price changes and league matches.

On top of that we have now seen the first longer term suspensions of the year and some serious injuries that may affect our teams.  We also have two weeks of data on our rookies (check back to see what Jeppa had to say on Wednesday about them).  Just seems like a standard week really that leaves us all pondering what the hell do we do with our teams?

Round 3 Trading

Hopefully so far in AFL Fantasy you have been trading hard each week, using your two trades per week.  But in RDT and SC you should have been saving trades for this very week.  This is the time to fix your broken rookies and if you nailed all them you could fix up any premium issues you have.

In my opinion, there is really an order in which we need to tackle trading this week.  Firstly we deal with any long term injuries, then we sort out our rookies and lastly we deal with any under-performing premiums.  The reason for this is that we can’t have anyone that is going to spend a long time out of the game in your side.  For example I would be looking after trading out Grant Birchall given we know he will miss 4+ weeks.  Jack Steven is out this week, but we still don’t know how long for so you might want to hold him for now.  Patrick Cripps and Dusty Martin are both still in with hairline fractured jaws, so they have pulled up better than we thought so they are holds.  To top it all off Nick Riewoldt is back after just one week!  Bloody miracle if you ask me.  Apologies for my advice last week to trade him out, I honestly didn’t think he would be back after one.  If I had him in my team I would have traded him out.  George Horlin-Smith will miss one with a fractured thumb, so if you can, hold him too.

We also need to consider what we will be doing with guys like Jordan Lewis and Jesse Hogan.  Lewis is out for three weeks which is a problem.  This is a very awkward time to be out suspended.  2 weeks and I usually say hold and 4 weeks I say trade him out.  But three weeks is very tough.  However, in this case, he is going to lose money for us this week in all forms (if you see him as a keeper then price doesn’t matter of course).  So in AFL Fantasy it is a no brainer, if you have him then trade him out.  In RDT, he has a BE of 137 and at his price of $617k it is a bit too much to have sitting on the bench with the knowledge that he will drop in value after one game.  So if you don’t have some massive rookie fix ups to do then you can trade him out.  Remember also, his price isn’t going to change for the next three weeks.  So if you do have him but have rookies to fix up, do them first, then you could trade him out next week when he still has two weeks left to go if you still want to.

As for Hogan, he isn’t in many teams, but if you do have him I would say if you can afford to hold, do it.  He has a low BE and will go up.  As a mid pricer you brought him in to make money, and that is what he will do.

But just as important is getting our rookies right.  We can’t afford to pick up some of these guys next week as they will be going up in price for the first time.  After lockout, they will be changing (as long as they are playing their third game).

Now in terms of Rookies, have a read of Jeppa’s Juniors from Wednesday where he told us who we should be looking at picking up.  Check out his article here.

If you don’t have any of the above issues to deal with then you could look at your underperforming premiums like Dan Hanneberry who seems to be the one that everyone is worried about.  I have heard a heap of discussion either way on him.  And really I don’t know what I would do, I am not an owner so haven’t had to worry about him.  But knowing me, I would probably hold him.  You picked him for a reason.  During the season a player may have two or three quiet games.  He has just happened to have two in a row at the start of the year.  In AF, I say trade, but the other two you may want to hold and save your trades.  Having said that, I wouldn’t blame anyone for doing it.

 Selection Table

We had some outs that we knew about, and of course there were some that we weren’t expecting to see as well as an In I didn’t expect to see.  They must have some great medical people in St Kilda.  How did Nick Riewoldt get up after just one week!  I can’t believe that a guy with his history of bad knees got up this quick (I guess that is why I am an accountant and not a doctor).  It is amazing that he returns this week.  I will be watching very closely to see how he goes and if his knee is fully recovered.

Kurt Tippett didn’t come up this week with his Ankle.  I doubt people have him in the classic forms of the game.  But in draft leagues he will be well owned (I have him in one).  One ruckman out, and another one back in.  Todd Goldstein seems to have recovered from his issues last week, I am sure his owners have breathed a big sigh of relief.  George Horlin-Smith is out for a week with a fractured thumb which is disappointing for his owners.  If you can afford to, I would hold him.

Ross Lyon took out the big axe making 6 changes.  No one of fantasy relevance is out (do you have Zac Dawson?).  On the ins we have a couple of rookies to consider with Harley Balic and Griffin Logue.  Jeppa is a fan of Balic.  Whilst on Rookies, Hugh McCluggage comes in for his first game.  So does Brayden Fiorini from the Gold Coast although he is on an extended bench.

At the Power Houston and Eddy have held their spots this week which is great for us.  There is still Pittard to come back into that side so Houston isn’t out of the woods just yet.  But at least he is in for this week.

#AskDunny

Thanks for all the questions this week.  Here are a few of the ones that I received.  I hope that this helps some of you this round.

The official word is that GHS is only out for one week with his fractured thumb.  This is a difficult one really.  I like bringing Adams into your backline for Mills.  I’m not so sure that bringing in Miles (I assume this is Teia Miles) for GHS is the best move, but if you have nothing else it is ok.  I can understand your concern about using two trades like this.  If you can get from Mills to Adams without doing GHS to Miles that would be a great trade to make as Adams has been fantastic so far.  Jeppa is a fan of GHS to Miles, I’m not as sold as he is, but he is far more a rookie expert than me, so you would be safe to make this change.

I like Hibberd to Marchbank.  I think Marchbank is a quality rookie who looks to have fantastic job security.  Roughead to WHE has already been done by 1% of the competition.  Roughy is averaging 77 and has a BE of 57.  Hoskin-Elliot is cheaper and has a very low BE of -85 so this looks on the surface to be a good trade.  Personally I like it, WHE is playing midfield time and has put in two good games averaging 104.  Roughy is solid but he has a limited amount of really big games in him whereas I think WHE has more.  This also leaves you with a great deal of cash to use next week.

Wow, Can’t say I ever thought I would see someone thinking about trading Ablett down to basically a rookie!  I don’t have an issue with you trading out Ablett (can’t believe I am saying that), he isn’t himself and cost you a lot of money.  But I don’t think that trading him down to WHE is the right answer, yes you would have a heap of cash in the bank but unless you are planning to upgrade a rookie on another line to a full premium I would be moving from Ablett to another mid full premium keeper.

Things To Remember

  • No Partial Lockout this week in AF and RDT.  So you need to make sure that your team is fully set at lockout tonight.
  • Leagues start in RDT and SC so let the fun begin.
  • RDT and SC prices change after this week. So make sure you are happy with what you have.
  • BE’s are now in play.  Break Evens are now the most important stat in the game.

Now we are into the real stuff in all types of comp.  So get out there and Trash Talk your opponents, a bit of banter is one of the most fun things in these games.  All the best in your leagues and your trades.  Remember, that one loss or one bad week doesn’t ruin your season (unless you lose to DTTalk’s Crutton and he won’t let you forget about it).  Catch you all over the weekend on twitter.  Cheers @pkd73

183 Comments

  • Better Cash cow?

    Houston or Balic?

    • Houston has BE -30 so will make more money whilst in but Balic will likely play full season for Freo.
      I would go Houston for now and see how Balic looks from fantasy perspective.

    • i think Houston may be dropped when Pittard returns (could a port supporter confirm?) however he seems to be doing all he can to remain in the side. I’d go Balic thinking long term, however, this early in the fantasy season you could go with a short term cash cow like Houston.

    • Because you are asking specifically who is the best Cashcow Id argue Balic. He has the most potential to earn you the most cash.

      Although it could be a good strategy to get Houston this week see how Balic goes week 1 and bring him in next week.

      People forget that the cash increase potential for the first week is a bit lower as the $150k rookies have a preset BE of 25.

      • Yes that is an excellent point. Gives you a cheap look at first weekers.

  • DEF: Adams, Laird, Jones, Marchbank, Hampton, Newman (Otten, Stewart)
    MID: Danger, Titch, Heppell, Fyfe, Beams, Watson, O’Meara, Barrett (Pickett, Mountford)
    RUC: Gawn, Martin (Preuss, Cameron)
    FWD: Dahlhaus, Miller, Steele, Nankervis, Roughead, WHE (Butler, Eddy)

    10k in the bank, struggling to find trades… maybe Pickett and Mountford to Balic and Miles?

    • Your team quite similar to mine :)
      Mountford out would be priority.
      I need Newman in but you don’t need to.
      Pickett v Balic v Miles – jury probably still out on whether one will be better than others, from scoring and JS perspectives.

      Maybe Mountford -> whichever you prefer
      Pickett -> the other if Pickett no great this week and Balic/Miles do welll?

      • Just a hot tip, Balic will win the rising star @60-1
        Will play every game here on out

  • Do I leave Hibberd on the def bench or trade him to another 150k spud more likely to get a game?

    • Newman?

    • Just leave him until someone is named

    • trading a player who isn’t playing that round is a waste of a trade. if you have extra cash then go for maybe Otten, Macreadie or Stewart then. If all but Hibberd are all named then maybe look at sideways trade for a player who has a low BE??

    • If you can’t wrangle some cash to trade him out to a playing rookie, then leave him.

      There might be options with the extended bench selections at 5pm today.

  • Salem v Lloyd (for Mills with Salem giving an extra 100k in the bank)
    I’m so tempted to get WHE in, but would rather get rid of Mills with a potential POD with Salem/Lloyd
    Thoughts?

  • Salem v Lloyd (for Mills with Salem giving an extra 100k in the bank)
    I’m so tempted to get WHE in, but would rather get rid of Mills with a potential POD with Salem/Lloyd
    Thoughts?

    • I’m in the exact same boat. Also throwing up whether to bring in Houston instead of WHE to enable me to get Lloyd. Not sure of H’s JS though

    • Give Salem a crack. Will make you money next few weeks. If he spuds it he won’t be too hard to upgrade.

    • Have you seen WHE play so far?

      Go watch some replays of the pies games.

      Id chase WHE not because he is a cashcow, but because could easily be a keeper.

  • GHS to D Swallow or Balic? Will have to be on the field.

  • I’m giving Mills the flick this week. The Legends convinced me that he’d be the exception to the second year blues rule. :(

    I’m thinking of two options:
    – Sideways trade to Salem. Breakeven of 21, so cash to be made.
    – Downgrade to Berry

    Mills is my D3, so if I downgraded to Berry I’d have four of Berry/Marchbank/Hampton/Otten/Newman/Stewart on my field. Because of this I’m leaning towards the Salem trade.

    Thoughts?

  • What option should I go with?:
    A. GHS to WHE
    B. GHS to Houston, Mills to Lloyd
    C. GHS to WHE, Mills to Salem
    D. GHS to Houston, Eddy to WHE
    Thanks in advance!

    • Maybe I do option A or D, and get Lloyd for Mills next week? Atleast I’ll get WHE in this week. Never know, Mills may do OK this week.

  • GHS to Miles, Balic or Berry this week? Will start on ground

  • I reckon dunnys scramble is my favorite DT article.

    • It’s a great read! Yours isn’t too far off Shags!

      • I just mostly try to give the info ASAP. I think Dunny always offers great insight. I nearly always rethink my trades after reading the scramble.

        But thanks ;)

  • Need a hand with my trade choices lads.

    Have already traded mills to burton.
    Second trade hibberd to Balic and field him over Taranto (hibberd my only Not playing rook at the moment) or Stewart to Newman and field him over otten. Either way both trades leave me with about $180k for some upgrades next week. Opinions?

    • Thinking Balic this week, as there’s a couple defenders debuting with potential this week so it will allow me to get the pick of the bunch next week

    • Trade the non playing rookies first. No guarantee Hibberd will get any game soon.

  • I’ve got mills in my team I’m concerned about, but this week prioritising….
    Hibberd-Newman
    Mountford-miles

    Thinking long term and mills keeps his spot for now…
    Thoughts?

  • Field toranto , miles or balic?

  • Balic or toranto on field ?

  • Hello everyone.. im a tad stuck with my last trade..

    $72k in the bank..
    J. Roughead -> W. Hoskin-Elliot – banks me $144k
    or
    T. Taranto -> W. Hoskin-Elliot – banks me $4k

    Suggestions would be much appreciated.
    Thanks in advance.

  • trade out omeara to balic and upgrade hrovat to murphy
    Or downgrade neal bullen to gallic and upgrade hrovat to josh kelly?

  • Miles or Balic to come in first?
    A bit concerned about Miles’ JS looking at that line up.

  • Will Zak Jones get a better run with Nic Newman named in defence and played very well this week?

  • Playing a league matchup, we both have Otten and Hampton, who do I want to be fielding?
    I heard that Otten might go 3rd tall man and not get many opportunities potentially. Whereas hampton could get more in the midfield?

  • Predicted average for tom Mitchell this week against gc . And is he a better option for captain before dangers

  • Just curious guys are most of you looking to make a big rookie upgrade next week? Not sure whether to bank cash or spend at this stage.

    • Still letting the rookies ripen at the moment. This week is Taranto and Zak Jones out for Buddy Franklin and Newman, due to Taranto rotting on the branch.

  • Balic & Salem OR Newman and Oliver??

  • Bring Newman or Houston in this week?

  • Taranto to Houston or Stewart to Neman?

    • Houston seems to be more solid and the Taranto-downgrade earns you cash. Stewart to Newman is very sideways and leaves you with the possibility of Taranto losing cash (crazy, I know)

  • Roo, Buddy or Macrae?

  • 1. GHS and Hibberd to Balic and Berry
    2. Hibberd and Mountford to Newman and Balic

    Option 1 looks better on paper but GHS could be back next week. Option 2 would give me one less non-playing rookie to deal with next round.

    Grateful for advice

    • I like 2 better because Hibberd has great potential to stink up your D bench for weeks and weeks to come. He did it last year, he’ll do it again this year. Get those spots ticking over ASAP and let the money flow in; Hibberd hasn’t earned a hold.

  • Any advice on whether trading out Taranto in the forward line and trading in Sam Reid. Reid’s last 2 rounds have produced good scores compared to Taranto’s. My research has not found much on Reid except he was injured last year and he is rarely mentioned on this site

    • I’ve liked Reidy for a while, when he was last playing he wasn’t going too badly either. With Tippett down and a lot of new kids running around, Reid is good for some decent numbers just from mark-kicks for each game. I like it, but you’re going from a high-priced rookie to a low-priced mid-pricer; whist he’ll make money, you’re going to eventually have to use another trade on him. If possible, trade to a potential top 6 forward.

      • Thanks for your feedback. I’m considering trade because of my opponent this week who I would love to beat. The site predicts our scores to be close and with an expected 50 from Taranto and a 90 from Reid I’m willing to make the trade as I’m hoping Reid will bring it home for me. Not enough money in the kitty to go to top 6 forward..

        • Emotion will always get in the way of logic, but if you’re looking to cream a mate, I think for what he is worth, Reid is good. Collingwood has what..Reid…Frost?…And that guy from Gold Coast. Reid surely goes to Buddy, leaving one of two very young key defenders to go to Reid. Reid looks fit and is leading well, surely he gets the better of those defenders. Good luck man!

  • can i seriously hold hogan?

    it would be great for fixing up my rookies, but means i’m fielding dan houston and teia miles – while sitting a 500k-er on the bench…

    not better of trading to macrae/buddy

    cheers dunny

    • Whilst Hogan hasn’t been going too badly, his position as a key forward makes me sure he won’t make top 6 forwards for the year. So if you have the chance, you could use this as an excuse to put him up to someone you firmly believe you can leave there for the rest of the year. There is a decent chance you’ll want to trade Hogan eventually, so maybe just take the pain now?

  • 1. Roughy to WHE and Horlin-Smith to Powell-Pepper with 77k remaining

    2. Horlin-Smith to Balic and Butler to WHE

    3. Roughy to WHE and Barrett to Powell Pepper

    Not sure if I want to get rid of Roughy yet because he might go big against GC. Will his value increase much more? Only way I can really get Powell-Pepper in though

    Feedback would be appreciated guys, thanks!

  • Hannan, Butler or Eddy on field?

    • Feels like Eddy is too dangerous to field with his potential to avoid the football at all costs. Leaving Butler and Hannan.

      I’d take Butler due to his more reliable role. Hannan is older and that gives him a bit more stability, but Butler is 20 himself and looks to have a solid role with the Tigers.

      The last bit to think of is the team they’re playing against. Richmond have West Coast at the MCG, and Melbourne are hosted by the Cats at Etihad. Melbourne doesn’t have a wonderful track record at Etihad and I feel the gap between Melb and Geelong is bigger than Richmond and WCE. I’d go Butler, but it’s a close call.

      • cheers, have a feeling most of the wce/rich game will be spent in the eagles fwd line so might go with hannan, but I appreciate the response

  • Hibberd to Balic
    or
    Ghs to Berry

    if 2 I can trade hibberd next round to balic

  • Back mcgrath in? Or downgrade to newman, bank about $130k and upgrade to a mid-pricer next round?

  • Field Hampton, Otten or Berry at D6?

  • laird mills wellingham jones marchbank hampton. bench: otten hibberd

    danger trealor hall fyfe watson beams JOM barrett. bench:miles wigg

    ryder nankervis.bench: preuss hunter

    dahlhaus roughead steele neale-bullen miller greene.bench:eddy pickett

    39k left help!!!!

    hoping to get in maybe a salem, titch, lloyd, oliver

    • You probably wanna be looking to get your rooks set early, so personally I’d go hibberd to Newman, then I’d maybe go hall to a murph,gaff, Heppell or Oliver if you wanted to bank some coin for next week

  • Field Barret or Balic at M8?

  • PLEASE HEALP ME GUYS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • DEF: Adams, Doc, Lloyd, Marchbank, Hampton Otten (Newman, Hibberd)
    MID: Danger, Rocky, Treloar, Titch, Fyfe, Beams, O’meara, Balic (Barrett, Miles)
    RUC: Grundy, Nank (Preuss, Cameron)
    FOR: Macrae, Dahl, Rough, WHE, Taranto, Houston (Butler, Picket

    1 trade to make, only 9k in the bank? Thoughts?

    Hibberd or Taranto out?

  • BARRETT @nATHAN

  • J Smith > Tom Williamson?

    Or

    Mcgrath > Newman which banks $130k for a big upgrade next week

  • Which two would you field out of hampton, otten and newman?