Stephen Coniglio – Deck of DT 2017

Image result for stephen coniglioName: Stephen Coniglio
Club: GWS
Position: MID
AFL Fantasy: $624,000
AFL Dream Team: $613,000
Bye Round: 13
2016 Average: 103
2016 Games Played: 21
Predicted Average: 110

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Why Should I Pick Him?

Firstly, let’s wind back the clock to Coniglio’s early years. In the NAB Under 18 AFL Championships he averaged 96 DT across five games which was the second highest amount, beating Taylor Adams, Ollie Wines, Toby Greene, Brandon Ellis, Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell just to name a few current day players with potential.

Quick-Fire Stats:

  • In Coniglio’s debut season he averaged 79 points from 12 games, including three hundreds.
  • In the 2013 season he averaged 81 points from 18 games.
  • He averaged 84 points in the 2014 season, however his average boosts up to 94 removing his two green vest games. He only dropped below the 20 possession barrier twice out of 12 games that year.
  • He averaged 91 in 2015. Surprisingly he was handed the green vest in round one. Taking out this clearly affected score, his average jumps up to 94.

Last year ‘Cogs’ averaged 103 from 21 games. He scored over 100 fourteen times, scored in the 80-99 range four times and in the under 80 range only three times of which all these scores were in the 70s.

Coniglio surpassed the 30 possession mark eleven times as well. In addition he averaged three marks, six tackles and a goal a game. But what I love about Coniglio is his fantastic work rate. Watching him closely towards the end of last year I would’ve thought Cogs got at least a point at every stoppage whether it’d be a tackle, kick or handball. I love the way he goes about his game and shares a lot of common aspects in his game with Rockliff. He has an extremely high work rate which is a fantastic underlying stat in DT.

Coniglio’s average is obviously in an upwards trend. Based on his previous averages the trend tells me that he should average around 111 next year. That is a nice number and is even pushing captaincy selection.

Coniglio should be very unique as well, finishing the season on an ownership of only 5% of the comp. He is a consistent dream team scorer and has a high ceiling as well, which would fill you with satisfaction if he busts out a 140+ score, which I think he is well and truly capable of.

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Why Shouldn’t I pick him?

You could argue that there are better options around his price range. Fyfe is cheaper, Beams is about 100k cheaper. This is the biggest concern and worry for picking Coniglio.

In addition you are paying a **** ton of money for a guy who may not be a captaincy option if he doesn’t increase/maintain his average.

Coniglio is a ball magnet. Could this factor potentially require attention from opposing teams?

Deck of DT Rating:

QUEEN – The only reason that he isn’t rated as a king is because of the potentially better options above, around or below his price.

Coniglio seriously could be an awesome option but you’d have to have pretty big balls to start with him.

However the likes of Zach Merrett, Jason Johanissen and Lachie Neale had insane starts last year and were all relatively unique, so maybe Cogs could follow this route?

Will be watching him very close in the pre-season.

What will Coniglio average in 2017?

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9 Comments

  • There are some nice points here, but I’d like to touch on the prediction that Cogs will avg 110+. From an economic perspective, one can’t really expect Coniglio to average 110+ for the season, as his rate of returns cannot sustain an exponential improvement as predicted in this piece. In AF/RDT/SC, generally, players consistently classed as ‘premiums’ will plateau (peak and no longer improve) in their output at some stage in their career. For someone like Dane Swan, at the top of his game, one could expect him to average 120 for a season. For Coniglio (assuming he will be a premium option for many years), who is entering his prime, he must be within reach of a plateau in output, rendering predicted exponential improvement impossible.

    This begs the question: what will Coniglio’s peak average be? This is individual to any Fantasy player, and is the real deciding factor in Coniglio’s value. If someone truly believes that Coniglio can reach a ~120 average, then his rate of improvement, while diminishing, will be far greater than someone who only expects him to be capable of reaching a 110 average. Also, look at Joel Selwood’s Fantasy output over his career: 85.5, 91, 103.1, 106.8, 109.2, 103.1, 106.4, 106.3, 97.3, 102.5. He began his career as a far more promising option than Coniglio, and reached his prime far earlier, yet he seems to have reached a plateau around the 105-110 mark. If Selwood could not even reach a 110 average, who’s to say that Coniglio will easily be able to?

  • AFL Fantasy: $624,000
    AFL Dream Team: $613,000

    Cheers Benjo for adding RDT pricing, Seems some before you have forgotten the original game!

    100 – 105 average will see him in 2017. Better price options out there: Pass!

    Good Luck

  • Could be a good pod option when he drops in price and becomes an upgrade target

  • I’ve tracked this kid since his days at Swan Districts, his grand final in 2010 was incredible. Really like Coniglio as a POD. Structure wise, it’s hard to start with him at his current price. However, it wouldn’t take much of an arm twist for me to upgrade to him later in the season. I can see him going 105-108 average by season’s end realistically.

  • I love Cogs, he’s been a mainstay of mine in Draft leagues for the past few years. Scores well and under the radar, and is now starting to get the attention he deserves now that his numbers are peaking and translating into not only fantasy totals, but on-field kudos.

    Will be a value Elite/UF pick in the range where other coaches start pegging down DEF/FWD options. As for AFL Fantasy, suffers from Bridesmaid complex – too many better value options in his price real estate.

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