Moneyballin’ – Finals Wk 2

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tbetta_mbfriOPPORTUNITY:

Ben McEvoy ($5,600 RU) – Showed enough last week (30 hitouts against a three-pronged Geelong ruck divison) to suggest that he’ll fare a lot better fantasy-wise this week with a dry deck and only Jordan Roughead to contend with. His 96 against the Bulldogs earlier in the year is almost irrelevant, as he was second-in-command after Ceglar and relied on a couple of sausage rolls up forward to reach a noteworthy score. Still, it’s something to hang your hat on if you’re unsure where to throw your ruck cash, and we chatted last week about how potent the Big Boy was last season for a 10-game stretch as the big banana.

SMOKEY:

Caleb Daniel ($6,800 FWD) – much like his slightly taller and slightly senior teammate in Dahlhaus, the diminutive Daniel was busy with 100 MB last week (31 touches) to go with a red-hot performance against the Hawks last time, top-scoring with 131 MB. The little dudes just match up so well with the triple premiership side, so there’s value not to be missed here. Will likely get a run-with job with Mitchell after the resounding success last time around.

The Bulldogs were the 2nd easiest side in the competition for defenders to score on in 2016, which means you have to look closely at the high-ceiling Hawks defenders:

  • Grant Birchall ($7,400 DEF) had 113 MB in a highly outside role last week (13 marks, cha-ching);
  • Taylor Duryea ($6,400 DEF) also got involved with the switches for 9 marks and 93 MB at a lower price and has a great Finals record;
  • Josh Gibson ($6,800 DEF) has unleashed some monster scores this year (4 scores over 125 this season) and is a risk well worth considering if he can get his intercept game going.

Brendan Whitecross ($5,600 MID) – Being the finals, there’s not a lot of fresh Moneyball meat on offer, so you have to save the money where you can. He’s nowhere near as cheap as he once was, but WhiteX has carved out a nice little niche in the Hawthorn machine that’s helped him churn out a solid stream of fantasy points. 92 MB last week and if he hits that mark again this week, he’ll the bargain buy you wish you didn’t miss.

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PREMIUM:

Luke Dahlhaus ($7,800 MID) – Top-scored with 131 MB against the Eagles thanks to a balanced stat sheet of 29 touches, 6 marks and 9 tackles and is slowly turning up the heat as we head into knock-out finals. Pumped out 126 MB against the Hawks last time, collecting 21 contested possessions – it’s been well-publicised over this season how poorly the Hawks fare in that stat, so Dahlhaus should have the inside ball to himself on Friday night. Additionally, Liberatore/Macrae’s returns allowing him to return to more of that inside role which should help him capitalise even further, as Dahl averages 6 tackles with that pair in the side compared to just 3.75 without them this year.

Jason Johanissen ($8,300 DEF) – Hasn’t put a toe out of place since returning from that hamstring tear, averaging 99 and putting the exclamation point on his hot streak with 155 against the Bombers and 127 MB against the Eagles recently. JJ is your perfect Moneyball backman – high kick-to-handball ratio with juicy mark numbers – putting him at the top of the wish list for Friday night.

Jordan Lewis ($9,600 MID) – One thing you can trust with Lewis is form, having scored 100 MB or better in an incredible 14 straight weeks! 36 touches and 11 marks last week for a season-high 156 MB suggests that the veteran is in excellent shape, and, if you’re a superstitious type, Lewis hasn’t dropped below the century mark in 3 Semi Finals over his career. A low-risk way to spend your big bucks on someone with a high ceiling.

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tbetta_mbsatRISKY:

Eddie Betts ($7,100 FWD) – 4 goals against the Swans last time (109 MB) and another 6 goals (92 MB) on the weekend means that Eddie has big green ticks next to the Moneyball KPI’s this week. In saying that, he’s not your typical accumulator type and if he gets shut-down by the Sydney defence, he doesn’t have the statistical foundation to keep him afloat – Betts has produced sub-70 scores on 7 occasions this season.

Sam Naismith ($4,600 RU) – No Tippett presumably means the #1 ruck mantle is back in Naismith’s sights, where he produced scores of 73, 90 and 93 in a row in the latter stages on this season. Your classic injury-replacement DFS pick, provided that Nankervis doesn’t sneak in and steal his thunder.

SMOKEY:

Dane Rampe ($6,200 DEF) – recent form has Rampe looking more like a Laird type than his standard lockdown self, averaging 8 marks a game and scoring 89, 91 and 85 MB in the past three weeks – obviously a sensational return for his price. Fun fact: that 85 MB last week against the Giants came after scoring a big fat 0 fantasy points in the first quarter, proving that Rampe can score quickly when required.

Jake Lloyd ($7,900 MID) – No midfielder at Sydney even remotely gets close to Lloyd’s minuscule Contested Possession rate of 29% (Titch next at 42%), which means that they have a specific role in mind for Lloyd to play and they’ll work hard to get him the footy. In other words, he’s Sydney’s Andrew Gaff (whose CP ratio is 25%), and is one of the reason why he’s hasn’t dropped below 24 touches in the past 7 weeks, including a low score of 78 MB in that time. If they’re hellbent on getting Lloyd the pill, at that price, you should be hellbent on selecting him.

Jarryd Lyons ($7,800 MID) – Incredibly consistent cog in Adelaide’s midfield, Lyons hasn’t dropped below 19 touches or 80 MB points in the past 15 weeks. Wow. 110 MB last week so form is red-hot and will be hard to overlook when you’re inevitably running short of currency when forming your squad.

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PREMIUM:

Matt Crouch ($8,500 MID) – equal-high possession winner for the Crows last week and is now a lock for 90+ against the 2nd-easiest midfield to score against in 2016. No player in this contest has scored more MB points than the younger Crouch in the past 3 weeks, and it’s not even close. Lock for me.

Rory Laird ($8,500 DEF) – one of the most reliable Moneyball options in recent history, there’s no one better to anchor your side. While I personally like the idea of chasing value in defence this week so I can feast on the swathe of MID options available to us in this match-up, there’s nothing wrong with doing the reverse and slotting in Laird as your set & forget backman this week, because you’re guaranteed a 90.

Rory Sloane ($9,000 MID) – The other half of the Rory Combo, Sloane was the Crows’ best MB performer the last time these sides met in Round 4 with 118 MB, and fits the mould of the kind of player (highly contested, influential) that seems to capitalise on Sydney’s preference to go H2H in the midfield these days. Price is a big concern though, and you’ll have to make concessions elsewhere to afford him over cheaper options in the guts.

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4 Comments

  • – District 9 is a direct reference to District 6, a black neighbourhood in Cape Town that was forcibly relocated to make it a white only area in the 1960’s
    – Aliens are introduced as aggressive, strange, different, frightening, wearing poor clothing like homeless and they disrupt normal society
    – We see an alien family that challenges what we think they are like

    – Intro into central character – Wikus van de Merwe (married to Tania)- refers to aliens as prawns (derogative term as they are bottom feeders)
    – -The alien ship coasted to a stop over the city of Johannesburg (command module lost) – Government set up a camp (district 9) that turns to slums
    – Archival footage – Figures of authority/Expert opinion giving different perspectives (Sarah Livingston – sociologist)
    – Aliens used to address issues associated with apartheid, refugees and xenophobia
    – Using actual footage of civil unrest in parts of South Africa and overlaying news graphics to create realism
    – 1.8 million prawns planned to move outside of Johannesburg
    – Wikus gets a promotion
    – MNU(multi national united): the private military organisation responsible for the prawns
    – -Military intervention (shows up with guns to ‘ask them to move’)
    – Aliens were a ‘working class’ alien on their own planet – living off of refuse in district 9 (hence prawn name)
    – Nigerians are gang leaders living in district 9
    – -Burning alien eggs and make a ‘popping’ noise (brutality)
    – Corporate greed: MNU are the 2nd largest weapons manufacturer and want to capitalise on alien technology
    – -Wikus finds alien technology: Squirts fluid on him
    – -We get a more humane perspective of prawns – family – MNU pointing shotgun and treating him badly – father questioning his rights regarding eviction – ZEITOUN and how he is treated by the authorities (apologising for kids misbehaviour)
    – CCTV techniques
    – Changes from mockumentary style to conventional feature film style – non diegetic sound amplifies tension
    – Written codes – time and place
    – -Passes out at party – taken to the hospital
    – Government representation – MNU manhandling Wikus dressed all in black
    – -Taken to hidden location – testing pain and weapons – His attitude starts to change as we see brutal behaviour and experimentation through documentation
    – “what happens to him isn’t important, it’s that we harvest from him what we can right now” – corporate ideology – looking at Wikus in money value
    – He was one of us, now he’s one of them (the other) – Turns from villain to hero – his transformation is his redemption
    – “Do you know where my wife is?” – The ‘other; has denied rights (Zeitoun in captivity)
    – -Testing alien weaponry with a live alien – he doesn’t want to do this – forces the audience to sympathise with Wikus – normally in a sci-fi movie blood and gore is fun, but it isn’t when its embedded in realism
    – “He hasn’t done anything to you”
    – Father feeding lies to the daughter “the doctors are trying as hard as they can” – cuts to realism of Wikus being harvested
    – Father: “You know Wikus, he never was that strong” – setting the daughter up for the reality
    – -Wikus fights back and breaks out of the bio lab – editing cut scenes increases
    – Has become a man on the run seeking refuge (has become a refugee) – fleeing the authorities (common reason for refugees fleeing for their lives)
    – Wikus now uses district 9 as a refuge
    – Forced to scavenge and eat cat food
    – Eye level close shots of aliens – we see them act as a family
    – -Wikus passes out and aliens take him underneath a shack to a lab to hide him – the lab shows that they are actually smart
    – The aliens can’t go home now – the father (Christopher) trying to tell the kid that they will be at a new camp
    – Wikus listens and says that the new camp is more like a concentration camp
    – -The story line turns into a quest – to find the fluid
    – -They steal weapons from the gang in district 9 – break into MNU bio lab – handheld camera – first person point of view – more frequent editing and shifting angles creates action and chaos
    – -Chris sees what they are doing to the prawns, we see that they have emotions and feelings – we sympathise with them
    – -Wikus knocks out Chris
    – -Wikus steals the ship and attempts to fly but it gets shot down by missiles
    – Wikus and Chris get captured by MNU – get to see alien emotions when Chris is stuck in the back of the vehicle
    – Gang stops MNU vehicles And captures Wikus to get his arm
    – MNU backup arrives
    – Kid prawn connects to mothership and activates robot on the ground – kills gang members and opens it up for Wikus to go inside
    – Wikus leaves prawn to be killed but returns to save him
    – Wikus tells alien to go ahead and leave him, they’ve become a team – Wikus stays to fend off MNU
    – Wikus gets defeated in the suit, but the ship made it into the mother ship – dramatic music
    – Kid prawn “we going home now” Chris “Yes”
    – ____ going to kill Wikus, even against MNU’s orders
    – Prawns kill _____
    – Chris flies mother ship away – humans rejoice but they don’t know if they are fleeing/rescuing or will declare war
    – Archival footage showing last view of Wikus – don’t know if he’s been captured by another shady government organisation
    – Cuts back to the start – Wikus talking about his wife as an Angel
    – Wife holding a metal flower
    – Prawn holding a metal flower – Wikus is now a full prawne

  • what the heck is this you absolute nuffys

  • Oh yeah cheers for the notes baz