Roy’s Trade Talk – Round 15

Another round of the byes is thankfully out of the way and I am going to have a look at a fresh crop of players who are ripe for the picking after coming straight off their rest.

Off The Bye 

If you are on the hunt for an under-priced midfielder, look no further than Swan star Luke Parker (MID, $488,000). Throughout the year we have certainly seen the best and worst of Parks, but when he is priced at under 500K, the good is hard to ignore. So far this season he has scored over 120 on five occasions, highlighted by 141 in round six and 140 in his last game before the bye. He is averaging 109 in his last three games to give him a break-even of 79 and he plays three out of his next four games at home.

Three weeks ago, Bernie Vince (DEF/MID, $519,000) was flagged as having more of a role through the midfield and his scoring since that point has been even more impressive than his already stellar season prior to that point. He has a three game average of 119 after scores of 120, 134 and 103 leading into his bye with all scores coming from well-balanced stat lines. This week he plays the Crows at the MCG which has been a happy hunting ground in recent times so his BE of 81 suggests good value.

If you are still to finalise your ruck department, why not round it out with Max Gawn (RUC, $529,000) The big fella has a three round average of 121 and a five round average of 110, which isn’t a surprise after hitting the bye in fine form on the back of 146 and 132 respectively. Slight buyer beware with Gawn is that he is capable of the odd stinker, but the good heavily outweighs the bad. He has a break even of just 59, so he is good pick up this week.

Tom Mitchell (MID, $564,000) was in hot form leading up to his bye with scores of 163, 132, 98 and 114. Despite this, he is still only owned by 16% of the competition.  Mitchell loves playing at the SCG and his numbers there are phenomenal, in fact out of his six games there this year, he has scored over 110 in five of them, with the Swans fixture to play three out of the next four there… It could be a tough month to watch as a non owner.  He has a BE of 100, but given he plays at home and has a five round average of 119, don’t let that deter you from picking him up.

Zach Merrett (FWD/MID, $563,000) certainly isn’t a bargain, but when he maintains such a high level of consistency, his price doesn’t fluctuate a great deal. In fact, Merrett has only dropped under 90 on one occasion this year whilst averaging 114. He is owned by 23% of the competition and is certainly in the ‘must have’ category for the run home. His break-even is fair at 110, but realistically, you are not chasing a bargain here, sometimes you just need to pay up to get the best.

Trade of the week:

Leigh Montagna (FWD/MID, $491,000) is the man to bring in this week. He has dropped $112K since the start of the season despite his elite average of 101. The only reason he is so cheap is due to a shocker of a game against the Crows where he scored 36 and if you ignore that, he has a lowest score of 98 in the last seven weeks. Surprisingly he doesn’t have great history against the Suns, but that won’t stop him pumping out a big score this week and then his next four games are at ES where he has been in fine form.

Rookie:

Tom Phillips (FWD/MID, $179,000) got it done with an impressive 92 last week. He looks the pick of the bunch.

Twitter Time:

When I say Montagna is the trade of the week, I really mean for those coaches who don’t have Gaz. Gotta get Gaz.

https://twitter.com/jaxonconnor11/status/747374569845972993

We get hundreds of Pod questions mate, Suckling… Man this article is contradictory! But this move makes sense.

Run with the original trade

Against everything I would do, but how can you say no to that?! A tradition upgrade of rookie would probably be better long term however.

Yep, the upgrade to Gaz is good but I would wait to find someone cheaper than Hams… Hopefully Silvani.

Cheers, discuss your trades in the comments!

@RoyDT

167 Comments

  • Do you think Monty will get rested later this year?

  • not sure whether to trade duncan to parker, or wells to monty, or do a double downgrade and save money for next week to upgrade davis/petracca/smith, thoughts?

  • Barlow out for a month with broken finger?

  • Barlow broken finger

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/afl/a/31939499/barlow-out-for-a-month/

    Barlow – Monty
    Wells – Treloar

    • FFS. Strangely enough, this won’t change my plans. At this rate, Barlow is a hold for me even for the weeks after his bye

      • Changes my strategy completely… was gonna hold him on field, have Hall as my floating EMG and upgrade Kerridge.

        Now I’ve gone Barlow –> Zerrett, will have Hall on field and Kerridge as my floating EMG.

        Can probably only deal with one more injury like this before my season falls apart.

  • Disappointed Barlow owner here since I’ve had him all year

    I’m $1k short from going Blakely/Barlow to Parker/Monty = FML

    Hopefully he doesn’t teach BE this week and I can just get him then

    • I’m personally still likely to trade Blakely but one could argue he benefits the most from Barlow injury….

  • Barlow to Monty
    MacPherson (finally) to Broad via Joyce DPP

  • Doing Tucker > Pittard & Blakely > Phillips, leaving my team as:

    Shaw, Simpsom, Laird, Pittard, Suckling, Dea (Ruggles, Harwood)

    Dangerfield, Rockliff, Steven, Titchell, Hunter, Sloane, Pendlebury, Phillips (Mathieson, Sumner)

    Gawn, Martin (Currie, Frost)

    Riewoldt, Merrett, Zorko, R.Gray, Kerridge, Davis (Hams, Reid)

  • get rid of kerridge or davis?

    • Not sure on b/e or cash or byes – but that aside I would rather kerridge in my side than Davis any day

  • Is montagna a safe trade for next week as he has a breakeven of 112. is his price going to drop more or go up???

    • when you’re that cheap and it’s a premo like montagna their break even doesn’t matter. However, even if he does go up it won’t be much.

    • more likely to go down / hold than go up, but depends what your main priority is, e.g. upgrading F or Mid positions

    • Agree – chances are he will get b/e and with low score of 98 in last 7 games he won’t be far off – I would not expect fluctuation of more or less $10k – so does not really factor into your decision if you want him get him now

  • Is wells injured or is he back next week after the bye??

  • RDT

    Kedge to Monty
    or
    Barlow to Monty/Riewoldt/Zorko next week

    Basically should I hold Barlow out 3-4 or trade?

    • Hard one my thoughts are maybe do option one because fingers are funny. He is listed 3-4 weeks but the assessment may change by next week, at worst by next week you will have a better idea of extent of injury and can make informed decision. This thought is irrespective of your need to have players on the field this week and or b/e of players you are looking at ETC

  • Trading out Barlow is not looking like such a bad decision now.

  • What about Robbie Grey? I think I prefer him to Monty and 2k cheaper.

  • Taking whatever rookies are available this week to cash up for some prem’s before the comps start again. Carlton might be a destination for fresh meat.

  • My team before trades with 15k in bank

    Shaw, laird, williams, Biggs, Howe, smith (Collins, Hartley)
    Danger, titch, steven, hunter, Ablett, rocky, b Ellis, Blakely (Davis, Mathieson)
    Gawn, Jacobs (cox, Currie)
    Zorko, hall, dusty, monty, Franklin, kerridge (hams, Reid)

    Thoughts on trades

  • Vince plus $50k or Merrett / Hunter / Sloane……. Need to pick one this week. Help appreciated!

  • Merrett, Steven, Treloar or sloane?

  • hey fellas need some help for my trades have 2 different ideas.. wanna know what could be the best for this week. regardless of my trades i will have 20 playing, thankyou :)

    1) kerridge- monty and duncan- treloar 50k in bank
    2) duncan- treloar and dunkley- jake long 277k in bank

    although monty is cheap. he wont go up heaps from his high Be and dunkley needs to be offloaded soon or should still hold?
    thanks

  • Isaac smith to Riewoldt or Wagner to Boyd/vince

  • Lance Franklin June 28, 2016 10:52 pm
    AF TEAM: Bank 75k

    DEF: Shaw, Vince, Docherty, Laird, Suckling, J. Smith, (Byrne, Austin)
    MID: Titch, Dangerfield, Pendles, Ablett, Hunter, Zaha, Duncan, Rocky (Gresham, Mathisen)
    RUCK: Gawn, Martin (Currie, Cox)
    FWD: Dusty, Kerridge, Montagna, R. Gray, Hams, Phillips (S Reid, Davis)

    Is it time to trade the likes of Bryne, Davis and J. Smith even though they still have low BE?

    I dont know who to trade in this week.

  • Rate players by priority to get in : Merrett,Riewoldt,Montagna,Simpson,
    Docherty,Sloan

    • Big list bro? You need to do some work yourself you know? That said without looking at draw or b/e or price or so on I have had Merett all year and been very happy. Otherwise look at 5 round avg and go best

  • Great read as always, but you killed it by spelling the son of SOS’ last name wrong!

    I did seriously consider Monty but Vince and Silvagni / Broad come in this week for me. Glad I bit the bullet and upgraded Wells to GAJ last week.

    Keep up the great work gentlemen.

  • Thoughts on suckling?

  • I’m trading danger out because I only have 16 players available and don’t want to cop 2 donuts
    Either to Parker or hanners
    Then maybe upgrade mullet to Vince as it saves me losing nearly 200 points this week
    I know trading danger is risky but my forward line and mid is all premo
    Backline is lacking 3 premo
    Rank 3500 so need to take a risk as I will drop likely this weak

  • Is Duncan to Monty (via DPP) a good trade?

  • Treloar, Sloane or Steven??

  • Nic Nat to Brodie Grundy and zieball to Zara, or is it a waste to trade zieball!

  • Who should i get for my trades? I’ve got 580k and i can get a defender, midfielder or fowards. 4 people i want to get is Parker, T.Mitchell, Vince or Montagna who should i get?

  • Midfielder above 500k who’s best? Viney hanners