Inside the Fantasy Numbers – Round 10

Pete from aflratings.com.au shares the numbers that matter.

Have the Suns turned the corner to better days?

With a host of Gold Coast players due back from injury in the coming weeks it may be possible that team scoring may increase and provide beneficial returns for Fantasy Coaches, after a brutal stretch between Rounds 4-8 Gold Coast averaged just 1354.6 team points but in the last 2 weeks they have averaged 1532.5pts Rounds 9 & 10.

Nothing to see here just yet for Brisbane

The Lions have been a bit of a Fantasy wasteland this year, they have scored more than 1,500 team points in only 2 of 10 games. It will be decision time for many Fantasy Coaches with the current headache that is Stefan Martin and the imminent return of Tom Rockliff.

Bombers still standing

Essendon are the only team yet to score fewer than 1,500 team points in a game this season, what appeared to be a wasted year for fantasy coaches regarding the use of Essendon players has turned in to mini pots of gold everywhere.

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Bulldogs easy to score against last 3 weeks

The Bulldogs are starting to concede large sums of points and could be a port of call for Captain options, Rounds 1-7 the Bulldogs were Ranked 3rd giving up just 1466.6pts per game but between Rounds 8-10 the Dogs have conceded 1783.7pts per game which is Ranked 18^th.

Bulldogs gave up Points to

• R8 Melbourne 1655
• R9 GWS Giants 1898
• R10 Collingwood 1798

Best Ave Fantasy Team Points Last 3 Weeks

GWS Giants 1754.0
Western Bulldogs 1721.0
Collingwood 1676.7

Worst Ave Fantasy Team Points Last 3 Weeks

Brisbane 1371.3
Gold Coast 1447.3
Fremantle 1461.7

Best Ave Fantasy Team Points AGA Last 3 Weeks

Richmond 1405.7
GWS Giants 1455.7
Carlton 1509.0

Worst Ave Fantasy Team Points AGA Last 3 Weeks

Western Bulldogs 1783.7
Gold Coast 1743.0
Fremantle 1683.3

 

Who Am I?

I am a Defender

I am currently priced under $500K

I have averaged 106.9pts in last 5 games

Some Fantasy Coaches have overlooked me off due to my age

I have averaged 6.0 Marks & kicked 4 Goals in 2016

Answer Below

 

Tom Mitchell

R10 v Kangaroos: 163
Last 3 Games Ave: 103.7
2016 Season Ave: 108.5

Mitchell equalled his career high in Round 10 scoring 163pts against Nth Melbourne, the other 163pt game came against Gold Coast in Round 23, 2015 a team in which he faces this week. Mitchell has scored 100pts or more in 19 of his last 29 games (Strike Rate:62.0%), 10 of those games have exceeded 120pts more (Strike Rate: 34.5%). Incredibly Mitchell was price at $517K prior to Round 10 and rewarded those that traded him in, with a Break Even (BE) of 77.0pts this week it would be wise to welcome him in if you haven’t already done so.

Josh Gibson

R10 v Lions: 118
Last 3 Games Ave: 94.0
2016 Season Ave: 91.2

Whilst Gibson has frustrated owners this year with his scoring inconsistency he is still averaging a career high of 91.2pts, he is reasonable value currently priced at $443K and considering the Hawks reasonable draw in the short term he is genuine trade in option especially due to a Round 15 Bye. Expectations need to be tempered somewhat for Gibson, he has scored 100pts or more in 10 of his last 34 games (Strike Rate: 29.4%) but can provide a decent overall average to finish the season.

Chad Wingard

R10 v Demons: 116
Last 3 Games Ave: 88.3
2016 Season Ave: 72.0

After being alerted to Chad Wingard last week in Roy’s Trade Talk those that made the move were instantly rewarded with 116pts against Melbourne, Wingard was able to get hot in the 2^nd half of last year averaging 92.8pts in his final 13 games including 7 games in which he scored 100pts or more.

David Armitage

R10 v Freo: 158
Last 3 Games Ave: 107.0
2016 Season Ave: 93.6

If you are looking for a premium under-priced Midfielder then one to consider is David Armitage  after coming off a career high 158pts against Fremantle in Round 10, after a slow start Armitage has posted back to back 100pt games to kick start his year. Armitage has a very good ceiling of points and had a 9 game consecutive streak last year in which he scored 100pts or more, in his last 31 games played Armitage has scored 100pts or more in 18 of those games (Strike Rate: 58.1%).

Dustin Martin

R10 v Bombers: 123
Last 3 Games Ave: 117.7
2016 Season Ave: 100.4

The early season predictions for the demise of Dusty were over exaggerated as he has put together 3 consecutive 100pt games , yes Martin had an indifferent start to the season but when you consider he is averaging over 100pts per game the upside could be huge. Priced a $535K Martin has a very good ceiling of points, since the beginning of 2015 he has scored 100pts or more in 18 games (Strike Rate: 54.5%) with 7 of those exceeding 120pts or more (Strike Rate: 21.2%).

Taylor Walker

R10 v Giants: 116
Last 3 Games Ave: 96.7
2016 Season Ave: 73.7

For the 2^nd consecutive week Walker gets a mention here after yet another 116pt game this time against the Giants on Saturday night, in the last 2 weeks he has averaged 9.5 marks & 5 Goals. With a BE of just 22 this week there could be an instant reward for those willing to invest in a Key Forward as the Crows match-up against the Saints at the Adelaide Oval on Sunday, Adelaide are Ranked No.1 scoring 111.4pts per game this year so hopefully the goals will flow for the Crows forwards including Walker.

Bryce Gibbs

R10 v Cats: 137 (5th Game 125pts+ in ’16)
Last 3 Games Ave: 125.3
2016 Season Ave: 112.5

All the negative opinions for Gibbs in the pre-season have fallen flat as he having a career year averaging 112.5pts per game, remarkably he is averaging 124.5pts over his last 6 games in which all have exceeded 100pts or more. With the Blues having a successful season compared to expectations it is a wonder no team has invested some time in to him, with the Lions & Saints ahead for Gibbs further good times are likely ahead in the short term.

Jeremy Howe

R10 v Bulldogs: 117
Last 3 Games Ave: 98.0
2016 Season Ave: 81.4

Howe was outstanding last week against the Bulldogs scoring 117pts, in the last 4 weeks since moving in to the backline he has averaged 98.0pts. Howe is still a viable option for either a Forward or Defensive position for those willing to take the plunge, he has a BE of 38pts heading in to Round 11.

Scott Lycett

R10 v Suns: 115
Last 3 Games Ave: 114.7
2016 Season Ave: 92.6

The departure of Sinclair to the Swans has opened up all sorts of possibilities for Lycett, he is in the prime years for a Ruckman and can move forward to hit the scoreboard. Lycett has averaged 103.1pts per game in his last 7 games which has included 3 games of 100pts or more, in Nic Nat’s last 7 games he has averaged 88.4pts per game. The No.2 Ruckman tag for Lycett seems so wrong in his current form.

 

Who Am I Answer: Jimmy Bartel

Good Luck in Round 11

AFL FANTASY POINTS FOR AND AGAINST (SEASON)

CLUB	PTS FOR	>100 FOR	>120 FOR	PTS AG	>100 AG	>120 AG
ADE	1613.5	2.7	0.5	1567	2.7	1.2
BL	1396.9	2.5	0.6	1646.2	4.7	0.9
CAR	1554.4	4.1	0.9	1555.2	2.7	1
COLL	1572.8	3.5	0.5	1659.4	4	1.7
ESS	1643.6	4.3	1.4	1634.4	3.4	1.1
FRE	1480	2.3	1	1678.9	4.8	1.2
GC	1485.8	2.3	0.8	1659.8	4.5	1.1
GEE	1642.7	4.1	1.3	1485.1	3	0.9
GWS	1672	4.6	1.3	1441.9	2	0.3
HAW	1593.8	3.6	0.6	1568	2.7	1
MELB	1569.7	3.1	0.7	1586.7	4.2	1
NM	1571.9	2.7	0.8	1500.1	2.8	0.9
PA	1527.7	2.6	0.6	1612.7	4.2	1.3
RICH	1527.8	3.5	1	1551.8	2.6	0.8
STK	1653.3	4	2	1624.9	3.3	0.9
SYD	1614.3	4.5	1.5	1529.8	2.6	0.5
WB	1742.3	4.8	1.2	1581.6	3.3	0.6
WC	1584.8	2.9	0.6	1571.9	3.6	0.8