Benjo’s PODs – Round Four

Well… I’m back? Yes, I’m back with my POD series! As per usual, I’ll discuss two PODs from each of the four positions (only one in the ruck), of which you should think about including them in your sides, if I am persuasive enough.

First off, let’s review the weekend scores. The weekend was full of a mixed bag of results, but hopefully you managed to score over the 2000, par mark. Todd Goldstein ($601,000) had a day out at Blundstone, scoring a monstrous 149 points, against a respectable ruck in Gawn! But what could I possibly do without this guy… Aaron Hall ($525,000) was epic once again on the weekend, with 151 points! In fact there were seven players who scored over the 130 mark on the weekend! One of these was Bachar Houli ($502,000) who knocked out a 140 against the Crows! Who saw this coming?

However, what happened to our midfield rookies all of a sudden? George Hewett ($221,000) scored a putrid 23, and is on the chopping block for many coaches, as is Callum Mills ($252,000) who didn’t do much better managing 31!

One of the most traded out players last week was Michael Barlow ($474,000) , whose first half was amazing, however fading late as the rain belted down in Perth. However he still managed a respectable 99, only losing 10k. Another heavily traded out player was Ryan Harwood ($201,000) who scored 65. I still think it was the right decision to trade him out.

Well done to the Descendants, coached by Louis T, who won the weekly prize in AFL Fantasy. He scored 2372, however he drew on points with the second placed team, but he won the prize because he was the first to register! Heart breaking for the guy who came second. However, I was looking at the top four ranked teams and they almost look identical. Three of the four have the exact same backline, rucks, and very, very similar forward and midfield lines!

Now, enough of last week, we are now focusing on this week. Let’s get stuck into this!

*If I may sound in a bit of a negative tone, it’s because of my Fantasy team. The boys are very disappointed with their Fremantle like start, and know that they have to lift, to impress the coach.

DEFENCE

Shane Biggs

443k – 68 BE – 95 AVG – 2.4%

I brought Biggs in this week in Fantasy. I was a little disappointed with his 71, but he showed promising signs against the Hawks.

  • Biggs faces Carlton, Brisbane, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Melbourne in his next five. Four of these five matches are going to be played at Etihad Stadium. The Bulldogs average a team total of 1,843 DT points a game whilst playing at Etihad, and average a further five DT hundreds a game.
  • People may prefer Johanissen as an option, but I prefer Biggs. In fact, here is a great stat found by @jimbobholder on Twitter. “Johanissen 2015: @Etihad 84 average. Away from Etihad he averages 69. After round seven, Bulldogs play at home only seven times.” Of course this isn’t the necessity to happen, but it’s just a buyer beware.
  • Is the Biggs hype real? When he was previously playing for Sydney, he averaged 108 over seventeen games for the reserves team in the NEAFL, averaging 31 disposals. Last year over the first half of the season, he played ten games in the VFL, averaging 97 DT.
  • Biggs has kicked off the season with scores of 125, 94 and 71, averaging 95. I can see him averaging somewhere between 80-95. He would be a reliable D5/6 option by seasons end.
  • Biggs is in the prime time of his career, aged 24. He looks at home in the Bulldogs outfit; as the Bulldogs look to improve, I can’t see him producing any shocking scores throughout the season.

Biggs

 

Verdict:

I think Biggs will be in the top 10 defenders, by seasons end (including the new DPP additions). I’m predicting him to be extremely consistent. Trading him into your side this week would give an instant reward, as he plays Carlton, at Etihad. Enough said.

Sam Docherty

464k – 76 BE – 91 AVG – 5.3%

At 5.3% ownership, I believe Docherty could be a relatively good trade-in option.

  • Leading up to the bye, Carlton faces the Bulldogs, Fremantle, Essendon, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Geelong, Brisbane and St Kilda. Of these opponents, Carlton will struggle only twice from a DT perspective. They do not have a hard run leading into the bye rounds.
  • Believe it or not, Docherty is averaging 25 disposals this year. He’s further averaging 8 marks a game.
  • As Carlton are progressively improving as an overall team, I expect that there DT output will also benefit. As a result, this places some Carlton players underpriced.
  • I think Docherty will be fairly consistent this year as well.

Verdict:

Despite Docherty’s low ownership, I think he is a great option. The only downside could be his round thirteen bye round, shared by the likes of Houli, Laird, Simpson and maybe, possibly, Brandon Ellis in the backline? If you are looking for a consistent, underpriced back-premium, I would look no further than Docherty.

MIDFIELD

Andrew Gaff

559k – 99 BE – 103 AVG – 3.4%

Gaff will average over 110 DT in the near future. He is a ball-magnet.

  • Gaff has already shown that he can step it up a notch in the big games. He scored 111 against the Hawks in round two, in a 46 point loss.
  • Over rounds 8-17 last year, Gaff didn’t drop below the 100 mark! This is unbelievable consistency.
  • When the Eagles play at Domain, they always put up monster DT totals.
  • Gaff dropped under 80 only three times last season.
  • Gaff is ever improving, and has always been a ball winner. He averaged 110 during the NAB under-18 championships.

Verdict:

Gaff will become more consistent over his career. He will average over 115 come the near future. Still a decent pick if you are in need of a POD.

Jack Steven

611k – 102 BE – 120 AVG – 6%

I brought Steven into my RDT side last week, and even captained him, much to the delight of a sweet 133 points!

  • Steven’s lowest score last year was 70, where he was the victim of the Jacobs tag. Apart from that, his two other lowest scores were 87 and 89.
  • Steven went over the 120 mark eight times last year!
  • Steven averaged 113 against last year’s top eight teams, proving that he isn’t just a flat track bully.
  • Steven provides us with a great captaincy option. He has great consistency and ceiling levels.
  • Steven plays the Hawks this week, who scored 133 points against last year.

Verdict:

If you have the cash and need a valid captaincy option, look no further than Steven. Just keep an eye on your round thirteen bye round midfielders, however.

RUCK

Jordan Roughead

364k – 43 BE – 80 AVG – 3%

The ‘other’ Roughead is going about his business quietly for the Doggies, posting scores of 80, 76 and 84. Is he an option?

  • Yes. Roughead has had scores of 80, 76 and 84.
  • Yes. The Bulldogs play four games in a row at Eithad.
  • Yes. He is cheap, and still has a relatively low BE.
  • Does he have history to back up this form? I’m afraid not. Before this season, Roughead has averaged 60, 47, 52, 57 and 57 DT.

Verdict:

Probably not the best option. I think an average of 70 is not out of the question. If we have Leuenberger, I think we should upgrade to the best, in Goldstein.

FORWARD

Zach Merrett

565k – 61 BE – 128 AVG – 6.7%

Man, this kid is an absolute gun! I watched him play at the Eagles vs Essendon NAB match, and he was everywhere. They love the ball in his hands!

  • He’s scored 119, 136 and 128. Have I mentioned that he’s a gun?
  • He’s owned by almost 7% of the competition! Amazing unique. You’d be winning if you started with him.
  • 1.46 PPM rate!
  • Third season breakout. Averaged 118 in the VFL in 2014, which is a pointless stat, but it’s further illustrating that he’s a beast!
  • As I said before, I watched him play during the NAB, and I seriously think that a bad game from him would be between 75-85. He’s that good!

Verdict:

Yes, he’s pricey, but for the forward line he’s a must. Clear top six forward. Will average anywhere between 100-110. Gun!

Leigh Montagna

608k – 83 BE – 123 AVG – 7.1%

Wow… I did not see this coming. 160?! Maybe I should have? He has to be in everyone’s team by seasons end.

  • Last year he didn’t score under 80.
  • He’s averaged over 105 four times before.
  • CEILING. 160 on the weekend was massive and would have most likely resulted in a massive score for the week.
  • 54% of his scores last year were over 110.
  • I tried counting how many times he’s scored over 130 in his career, but I gave up. He must have scored around 130 over thirty times in his career.

Verdict:

If you can afford him, I’d just bring him in. We thought that he’d get cheaper, but will he? Definite top six forward, no doubt about it.

The Weekly Roast + Toast

This is a new segment, kind of a rant and an area of discussion. I’ll kick things off.

ROAST

Mills and Hewett. I expected a lot more than 31 and 23 from these boys, as they were both on the field. Another mare of the week goes to me, for not trusting Adams on the field against the Hawks in Fantasy, which backfired badly.

TOAST

I brought in Jack Steven, and captained him in RDT, which was a major success. Aaron Hall was beautiful as always.

Around The Grounds

I managed a pathetic 1928 in Fantasy. Thankfully, my RDT team is going well, currently ranked inside the top thousand.

However not all doom and gloom, as I managed one good result, finishing 25th in The West Australian’s Pick 7 competition. My team was Shaw, Simpson, Steven (C), Adams, Goldstein, Hall and Montagna. Unfortunately if I selected Houli over Simpson I would have taken home the weekly prize. Oh well.

This week’s team selections will be critical. I’ve got many borderline rookies, such as Dunkley and Hewett. I’m thinking of going Bartel down to Ruggles and Hewett up to Dusty/T. Adams in Fantasy, who are both due for some respectable scores.

 

I hope you guys enjoyed the first edition of Benjo’s PODs for the year!

Comment your trade ideas down below and I’ll try and answer as many as possible. As always, my Twitter handle is @BenjoDT, so feel free to ask me any questions on there!

57 Comments

  • Biggs as a top 10 defender?? Dreaming. Merrett averaging mid 100’s means he will be averaging 150?? Dreaming.

    Those were horrible calls my friend.

    • I think mid-100s clearly means t between 103-107

    • haha this gut why bother commenting if its just to have a whinge. great write up mate merrett defs top 8 fwd by end of year

    • Sorry if it was unclear. Merrett averaging between 100-105 was the aim.

      This is AFL Fantasy we are talking about. Why play the game if we don’t take risks? This is what the article is about. Each to their own I guess, but I think an average between 80-95 is realistic.

    • Salty pessimist sighting^^^^
      Not that many options down back last i checked. No Murphy down back for the doggies either, few extra disposals for somebody. As Benjo stated biggs is in his side.. your not gonna judge a player that harsh the week after u bring him in. I think Biggs could be a masterstoke for those who have the balls haha (no pun intended)
      Obviously he meant Merrett is gonna average 150+ realistically..get real.

      • Apologies if I offended, didn’t intend to, only had seconds to post a comment as was at work, you’re right each to their own. I do think however there are good risks and bad risks, Biggs imo is an unecessary risk as well as already rising 50K, risks are good when you catch them on the up, not when they are up. Thats just my opinion though and I think depending on your overall rank determines how risky your moves are. :)

        • Sure he mught be an unnecessary risk. You realise this is a post about PODs right?

          PODs are often very risky.

          Its risk/reward.

          • They don’t have to be as risky…I think these guys below are better options except for Montagna, Zerrett and Steven.

            Def: Pittard, Enright
            Mids: Scully, Kelly
            Rucks: Grundy
            For: Martin, Daniel

    • my trade jordan de goey to jayden short
      daniel howe out jason johaneisin
      40k in the bank
      good or bad trade

      • Great article always appreciate people’s time and efforts!!
        Lachie
        Not knowing your structure I’d personally downgrade Howe then upgrade DeGoey
        But if you need to strengthen the back line maybe Brodie Smith or Sam Docherty are other options
        Good luck in 2016

  • Gaff is going under the radar for DPP (not enough people own him to check?) – his heat map shows a pretty significant percentage of disposals in the defensive half

    • Yeah I saw that he’s won 68% of his disposals in the defensive half so far. I’m not too sure what they are going to do (CD). Will they give DPP to everyone, or go conservative? Brandon Ellis will come straight into my side if granted back eligibility.

      • Has been every game too – not just one skewing the data. Hopefully they stick to relevant players, in the past there’s been some guys who no one owns nor would want to own even with an extra position. Guys like Gaff/ Mills/ Ellis/ Boak/ Gray are instantly (more) relevant and change plans pretty quick. For promotional/ illustrative purposes if they made a DPP team – 6 added backs, 8 added mids, 2 added rucks and 6 added forwards would be good with a bench or two if required.

        • Keeping on the subject of DPP players… if we’re talking about Gaff possibly being given DPP status, I have read everywhere and also seen some Scott Pendlebury feller roaming over the half back line… he’s won 73% of his touches in the defensive half so far this season… stupid to think he’ll be given DPP status or a possibility? ha

  • Biggs and Byrne IN 2k left. Howe and Mills OUT. Thoughts Benjo?
    Who would you field out of Cameron, Byrne and Walla?

    • Yep, I like that. Howe just cannot get any game time. Mills has been a disappointment.

      Could you maybe trade in Ruggles instead of Byrne? Still good trades.

      Clay Cameron against Brisbane should score more than the other two for this week. Easiest match up.

      • 1k short of getting ruggles, therefore Byrne is the go. I’m content with that. In the mix article this week suggests Cameron could return to defence as some other key fwd’s are back…hmm

  • Cheers Benjo! Awesome to have these beauties back! Was also one to notice 68% of possessions the defensive half for Gaff. Hmmm…

    • More chance of you holding on to top spot in the Regular Posters League than Gaff picking up DPP. ;)

      • So if the odds of me winning the league are 100%, then Gaff should gain DPP? Is that what you mean mbrucie? ;)

  • Thanks for the analysis Benjo. You are a ripper!
    I’ve had Treloar and Liberatore stinking up my mids, need to pick up some scorers.
    Thoughts on bringing in either Nat Fyfe or Zach Merrett? I’d be dumping Rich for Ruggles to free up the cash.
    Thank you in advance, Sir. Go the Pear.

    • I figure Nat’s not gonna get any cheaper…

    • Cheers Captain!

      I’m not too sure what you are trying to say. Are you trading Libba/Treloar, or trading a rookie up to them? If it’s just for the midfield then I think you can’t go wrong with Jack Steven. Provides a safe captaincy option as well.

  • Great read Benjo, love to hear that it is back for another season

  • Great article Benjo.

    Interesting to see mbrucie’s boy getting some love.

    One thing I have to say about Docherty is his absolute refusal to turn scores in the 90s into 100s (just ask Footy Rhino)

    Finally, check out James Kelly for DPP status. Averaging 103 with 75% of disposals in the back half and owned by 0.5% of people.

    • Thanks Lachie. Kelly looks certain to grab back eligibility. I owned Docherty last year and hopefully he can be more consistent, eliminating the 60s out of his game.

    • shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

  • Great stuff Benjo. Glad to have you back ;)

  • not a pod but what do you guys recon about pendles getting dpp in the back line he is spending a lot of time there surely bucks will unleash him soon

  • I think that Duncan is also another POD (with only 5% ownership)

  • My trades: kent to ruggles (dpp with tippa) and greenwood to hall (should of went robinson to hall in round 2 but oh well)

  • Whats everyone’s thoughts on caleb Daniel? Has a BE of 4 and bulldogs have another 3 games at etihad?

    My trades were gona be Hewitt to merret and then longeran to daniels and put tippa with dpp as d6 and Daniel as f6?

  • zaharakis or parker?

  • Excellent write up Benjo! Great to have these articles back.

  • Benjo
    thoughts on Jack Marin

    419 K

    38 BE

    99 AVG

    2.91%

    • At that price I think you’d want him to be a keeper. Decent option, but I’d rather have a Sam Gray type at F6 rather than an ‘iffy’ Jack Martin.

  • Always an interesting read to provoke some different thinking !

    Had Docherty as a unique last year. Was a late withdrawal for Carlton in Rd23 (Fantasy GF) and cost me 2 League wins. Still burns !

    Saw most of Carlton’s games last year. They prefer to give the ball to Simmo as a general rule.
    Acknowedge he’s started this season well and is in the backline chain when they throw the ball around.

    Prone to too many scores in the 70’s for mine. Is given lockdown roles at times too which is frustrating to watch. At best he’s an 80-90 average IMO.

    New coach and a change to their backline structure might push this average up slightly !

    • Thanks for reading Darren! I had Docherty last year as well and that last round omission/injury killed me. I’ve still got memories of him against Melbourne last year. Was on 60 at 3QT and pulled a 110 out of nowhere.

      Could be a decent D6, but yeah as you said this series creates thinking. Thanks for reading!

  • When does Fantasy initiate changes to players positions and make them DPP?

    How many more rounds….

  • Great read Benjo. Any thoughts on Ziebell as a POD.

    • I think there are better options. Don’t expect 18 tackles every week haha

      • Ziebell should come with a Buyer beware tag. Too many quiet games, obviously speaking from last years experience. If you like biting your nails and roller coaster rides then jump on.much safer options available though=PASS!

  • I have a few players I’d like to off load asap. Mills, hewett, lobb, b crouch.

    Unsure whether to go
    b crouch > ruggles through DPP
    Lobb > Blicavs (+100K)/goldy (+30K)

    Or mills > ruggles via DPP
    B crouch > gaff/zaha/Ablett
    Or B crouch > Duncan +100K

    All and any advice welcome

  • Good write up benjo

    Looking at bringing in z merret for hewett, and then either longeran to caleb daniels via dpp or Harwood to ruggles?

  • Jesse longeran for Marcus Adams?
    Bryce Gibbs for Zach Merret?
    Or
    Kane lambert for Sam Grey?
    Bryce Gibbs for Tom Scully?

  • Thanks DT Talk and good luck fantasy owners. The Stefan Martin factor:keep or trade? A lot of people have him and he has lost early owners a lot of cash.

    • Keep. You selected him to be in the Top 2 scoring ruckmen this year, and he will be. Hold/Keep.