The Numbers- Round 1

Welcome back to another season of AFL fantasy and another edition of The Numbers. Each week I’ll be bringing you a light read containing lost of interesting and often trivial facts  from the previous weekend of footy. Hopefully along the way you might pick up some useful bits of information that helps you improve your team, climb up the rankings and dominate your league. Let’s get into it.

1.22– Points per minute for Calvin’s #1 Captain option, Daniel Hannebery. This is comparable with other popular captain picks; Ablett went at 1.30PPM and Dangerfield 1.26.sidey

2– Weeks offered to Steele Sidebottom for a high bump on Hannebery that caused him to effectively be subbed out for 76. He now becomes a must trade for Fantasy owners, although probably should be benched in RDT.

5– Points separating the two Crouch brothers after round 1. Brad (87) and Matt (82) hardly dominated in round 1, however both showed signs of fantasy potential. You would have to say despite costing a touch more, Brad looks to be the better choice, costing you $4770 per point, whereas Matt’s dollars per point is $4829. A battle to watch over the coming weeks.

7-Number of free kicks awarded to Allen Christensen, surprisingly not even a career high. He was ducking and weaving underneath taller players and drawing plenty of high’s inside the forward 50. However annoying, it is a skill to draw frees and one that can easily bump a players fantasy average up a few points. His career high came in Round 18 last year, when he racked up 8 free kicks on his way to 72 fantasy points.

51773399643– Number of disposals recorded by round leaders Patrick Dangerfield and Matt Priddis. This was a career best for Dangerfield, and he no doubt started the season with 3 Brownlow votes. Priddis had 33 by the 5th minute mark of the 3rd quarter, but slowed down in junk time once the game was won.

44-Trades left to turn the current scrap-heap that is your round 1 team into a well-oiled machine that can pump out 2300 at ease. Every trade counts, but remember not to trade away your preseason research based on one bad performance. Fixtures can have a massive impact on individual scores. Sam Jacobs’ 78 looks a lot better when you consider his worst score of the year should come against Goldstein. Similarly, don’t jump on someone like Josh Kennedy just because of one big score against a weaker opposition. You picked each player in your team for a reason, and unless something on the weekend disproved this, chances are they’ll come good.hickey

46– Minutes Fremantle fans had to wait before Walters kicked their first goal of the season. Western Bulldogs absolutely dominated Fremantle in all parts of the game, on the way to a 65 point win and a 1950-1413 Fantasy point massacre.

56– Number of Hitouts from 309K Ruckman Tom Hickey in St. Kilda’s tense battle with Port. Although it appears from this stat that he dominated the ruck, Lobbe managed a solid 42 taps himself, indicating there were plenty of stoppages for the two ruckmen to compete at. This is due to the game having a round-high 174 tackles between the two teams.

58– Percentage time on ground for Clayton Oliver, giving him a respectable PPM of 0.88. The tank was always the worry for Oliver, and after being on 54 at the half; a final score of 61 is just not good enough.

61– Players scored 100+ points in round 1, significantly higher than the 50 that began the season with a ton last year. The cheapest of these was $277K Western bulldogs forward Toby McLean. The free-flowing football and lack of rotations seems to be generally increasing fantasy scores. Although the sample size of data isn’t great, hopefully this trend continues.

JJK72– Percentage of Essendon defenders Matt Dea’s score of 72 that occurred in the second half. After being on just 20 at half time, owners were already contemplating a trade. However he strung together some kick-mark combos and managed to produce a very solid score considering his price.

92– Hours between the first bounce of 2016 and the final game on Easter Monday. This weekend has been a marathon for fantasy, but I think it would have been even more enjoyable if we had a Good-Friday game to join it all together.

180– Fantasy points scored by round leader Josh Kennedy in West Coast’s comfortable shoot-out victory over the Lions. Beating his previous high score of 177, Josh’s 180 came off the back of 16 marks, 25 touches (of which 21 were kicks!) and of course 8 goals. Had he been selfish he could have easily cracked 200 and had 10 goals, as he passed off a number of easy opportunities to teammates. It could be a while before this score in broken in 2016.

960– Days since Stefan Martin last scored under 80. His weekend score of 79 is he lowest since August 10th 2013. On that he played back-up ruckmen to Leunberger in Brisbane’s 23-point loss to Richmond, and scored a mere 41 fantasy points. While his performance against west coast on Sunday night wasn’t quite that bad, 79 points from the second most expensive player in the game is not the start to the season we were looking for. You could argue he won’t face Nic Nat every week, however short term It’s not going to get any easier, as he faces #1 Ruckman Todd Goldstein this Saturday.Stefan

1051– Combined points scored by 9 of the most popular mid-pricers in round 1. Nearly all “risky” picks awkwardly priced between 300-450K performed on the weekend, with the only obvious exception being the giant’s pair Steele (47) and Greene (56). The nine popular mid-pricers who tonned up were Gibbs (127), Hall (125), Rich (123), Johannisen (121), S.Gray (118), Sheridan (116), Rosa (108), Hunter (108) and Yeo (105).  Personally, I managed to crack 2000 with just one of these players, so I can imagine how anyone feeling extra “hyped” about NAB cup performance would have had a very good week.

2367- The total points scored by shared round leaders “Wet Toast Eagles” and “POLEMAN”. Although the score is obviously very impressive, the teams have quite a few surprisingly disappointing picks. “POLEMAN” played Jack Steele for 47 and “Wet Toast Eagles” had both Cooney (58) and Greene (56) in his forward line. Look for these two to be overtaken this weekend.

11322– The Number of coaches who persisted with Daniel Howe, despite him being named on an extended bench for the Monday game. Unfortunately for them, he missed the cut. What makes it worse is that popular DEF emergency A.McDonald-Tipungwuti scored only 36. Personally I think it was an unjustified risk to take in round 1, especially when there were so many other options down back.

Well thats it for Round 1! Please leave a comment if you enjoyed the read, or if you have any interesting numbers of your own. It may just feature in next weeks article!

39 Comments

  • I love the numbers. Many of those so insightful!

  • NUMBERS ARE FUN

  • Speaking of numbers… Are all the fantasy break evens correct? Seems like every player has a high break even and i cant even find break evens fir kerridge, hewett, davis, simpkin, marcus adams, tippa or dea… Someone please explain this

    • Oh and add mcCarthy to that list as well…how is wells’s break even so high?

    • Where are you looking for break-evens? The ones on the AFL Fantasy website through “AFL Fantasy Coach” would have to be correct

  • Rubbing salt in the wound with your captain hindsight remark about Daniel Howe. Clearly had more upside than any of the other options. Surely gets a look-in after Hawthorn’s somewhat insipid showing yesterday.

    • Granted more upside, however it is important to also consider downside when comparing players. He should look to get a run for the injured Hodge over the coming weeks.

    • Spot on. Thought Howe was a risk worth taking. Not many back rookies had runs on the board in Nab cup. Surely he gets hodgey’s spot and saves us a trade when he averages 80 for the next 4-6 weeks

      • Could even go for a massive restructure and downgrade Robbo to him through one of many DEF/FWD rookies. Would be a gutsy move.

    • I was happy risking Howe with Weitering’s 71 locked as emergency, and sufficient funds to upgrade if he doesn’t play. I expect many others had similar contingency plans.

  • nice article Jake.

    Harsh on Oliver here. Hard to spend time on the ground when you are forced to get painkillers for an injured hand.

    also the Howe risk still has potential to pay off if he come in this week (which he surely will) and dominates which a direct substitute like Wilson plays a poor game.

    p.s Lachie Neale went at 1.325 PPM

    • *while a direct

    • Yep Neale had the 9th highest PPM for the round. First was Prestia who had 122 in just 81 minutes for a PPM of 1.55.

      Didn’t watch the game and was unaware of Oliver’s Injury. Hopefully it doesn’t affect him in coming weeks and he can pump out his first rookie ton!

  • Could someone please give me Selwood’s PPM? Cheers in advance

  • I can’t count :(

    • This is a great tool for predicting price changes during the weekend and before lockout ends. However as he states on the site, they are not actual values are mere predictions. As the season progresses his formula should get closer to the actual values, however for now nothing beats the actual AFL Fantasy website.

  • Great article, im a numbers man

  • 2 – the number of mistakes most coaches will make trading out under preforming mids ! back your judgement and if you have to trade dont trade to another quick fix mid priced option go rookies for cash my friends, good luck

  • Is Oliver’s tank a reason to get rid of him this weeks?

  • Sometell me a website for breakevens?

    • Footywire
      DT Live
      Nix’s website

      all these 3 provide breakevens although they are not 100% accurate.

  • Still Fanhub refuse to respond or inform. Are we out of Fantasy? Has anyone had theirs fixed? A massive let down after all the hype.

    • Very unprofessional in my opinion. I don’t expect an instant fix, I’d prefer they take their time to make sure the problem is fixed 100%

      However,I don’t see why they can’t acknowledge the problem and reassure us that they are addressing the problem. Shocking communication

      • Also bad business sense because the less they say, the more people will complain and spread the word and turn people off this form of fantasy

  • Now it’s been confirmed Robinson will miss games it’s an easy choice to trade him out,

    But I’m just reading he got 23 touches and 4 tackles and from memory he played three quarters?

    Everyone was in such a rush to ditch him when there was a chance he could play…

    P.S. No response to my message to AFL Fantasy about my invalid team yet. This is really worrying, and very unprofessional. Some are getting automated responses, me not even that. I have checked my spam folder

    • I get the generic automated response (3x) to which I have let them know what I think but still can’t stir a reaction. As you say I wonder if RDT or Supercoach would be so poor? Unfortunately I put all my eggs in the one basket this year. I feel like the last idiot to buy a Beta instead of VHS.

      • Agree. Wouldn’t be too hard to put an acknowledgement statement on the website, there is an issue and they are trying to rectify it.

        For all we know, teams could still be waiting in hope a few hours before Round 2 lockout.

        Surely when it raised its head last Friday night, you would work day and night to ensure it is fixed.

  • I can’t see them fixing anyone’s team that got 0 like mine so just delete it and start again if not don’t play

    • I’ll give them every chance to fix it before giving up. It would be pretty annoying if I delete my team, they fix the issue and restore everyone’s scores….

  • I received a response from an actual person. They asked what browser and device I use

  • Thoughts on Alex Sexton’s 96 on the weekend?