Tbetta’s AFL Fantasy Team Reveal

After years of being a prude, Warnie has finally convinced to me bare all! My AFL Fantasy team, that is. No Kardashian-like antics going on here; trust me, you don’t want to cop a look at a rig that even off-season Motlop would be ashamed off… but back to business. Tbetta Than You has been through many iterations and will likely go through a few more, and this is what I’m rockin’ with as we speak.

tbetta_team2016

You’ll notice that it’s very different to what the hugely knowledgeable Pearcey has revealed to us recently and that’s the great thing about fantasy – there’s more than one way to skin a cat. Like it? Hate it? Give the mini-podcast above (featuring the velvet dulcet tones of the great Dawgfather) a whirl for some justifications and dribble then go rip my team to shreds in the comments!

Anyway, I’ve got a little extra spare time… Why not fire off some pre-season mini-Bullets?

 

Close But No Cigar

Players trying to force their way into Tbetta Than You.

Players trying to force their way into calculations at Tbetta Than You.

One of the tools that helped greatly with my NAB Challenge study was to make a second fantasy side, aptly named Tbetta Than You Reserves. Being the incredibly creative title-giver that I am, I’ll obviously need to explain – basically, I just made a second side without any of my current squad.

As the pre-season dragged on, many players were dropped from the Ressies and many earned promotion to its superior sibling side. I felt all powerful. Rookies cowered when I hovered my mouse across their blacked-out silhouettes; Premiums shook in their boots after lacklustre NAB Challenge scores.

No one was safe, and that was the point – full accountability across the entire organisation. No player won a guernsey without biding his time in the Twos (to prevent un-vetted hype players sliding past the keeper), and no player was sacked without being offered an opportunity to regain favour (to prevent knee-jerk reactions).

So, who’s still diligently putting their names in front of the match committee at Tbetta Than You? I’m glad you asked! All I demand in return is that while you read the following, you pump some phat Thomas Dolby beats:

1. Jason Johannisen ($427k DEF)

I’m still looking at possible ways to save coin and Laird’s D2 slot is far from slammed shut. Johannisen has seemingly carved out a nifty little role at the Bulldogs this year, and retrospectively investigating, he did average 84 over the last nine weeks of 2015. JayJo’s cheap, he’s in form (a team-high 1.06 PPM over the NAB Challenge) and he’s a big point of difference at just 4.4% ownership. If I can overlook the bleached mop on his noggin then I think I’m sold on Johannisen’s scoring.

2. Steele Sidebottom ($565k MID)

The only thing keeping Sidebottom out of my side is a lack of space with my current structure. 108 is the key number here – he averaged that figure in 2014, he went at the same clip in the last 10 games of 2015 and his NAB Challenge (119, 103) suggests that Sidey can reach or even exceed that mark this season.

3. Zac Smith ($389k RUC)

The bargain hunter in me loves the resume that Zmith’s developed in the hoops so far, but it would force a big restructure if I was to pull the trigger. I’m quietly pleased with my make up at the moment, but if I ever needed an extra $120k for a kidney or something, I could see Gawn –> Zmith making sense. He’s clearly the #1 ruck at Geelong, he’s underpriced and he’s been travelling at 1.00 PPM over the NAB. Tick, tick, tick.

4. Jordan De Geoy ($342k FWD/MID)

As above, De Geoy misses out due to a personnel problem, because I’ve certainly had no issue with his scores of 102 and 81 (1.01 PPM) this pre-season. In season’s past I wouldn’t have the Grays, Halls and Wells’ of the competition forcing my hand; but they are, and eventually Collingwood’s midfield logjam was the deciding factor in displacing JDG from my side.

5. Daniel Howe ($265,000 DEF)

I’ve still got $96k in the bank and that’s enough of a payrise to go from Mitch Brown up to Daniel Howe. It’s a huge talking point – is Howe worth the premium over some of these rookie defenders? Does he have the job security to match his sexy NAB scoring? I’ll get back to you on this one – once I figure it out for myself.

 

You’re Dumped

I made so many trades, swaps, switches and substitutions over the pre-season that I feel like Gordon Gecko would be proud of me. It’s the nature of the beast; you gotta move things around to get the best squad that you can. Upgrades here, downsize there, throw a value pick in the mix. It’s a constantly evolving process and you really can’t take it personally in this game.

However, when you dump a player that has sat in your side for months, it leaves a bitter aftertaste. It hurts. These players were there for you when you were hungover on a Sunday morning watching NAB Challenge; they were there for you when you were procrastinating through a particularly rough day at work. And to dump them, just like that? Out of the blue? There are never any winners when you break two hearts at once.


If I’m Alison Brie, here are the players that I’ve Adam Brody-ed this pre-season. Poor guys.

1. Elliot Yeo ($436k DEF/MID)

Has a sportsman ever personified his surname so perfectly since Tim Duncan first loped onto an NBA court? The Yeo-Yeo is way too up and down for my liking, as scores of 37, 45 and 78 validate. My biggest concern is that he seems to score big when the Eagles are up, but struggles when they’re not. I’m after more consistency with my defenders, and preferably a full mouth of teeth.

2. Tom Liberatore ($443k MID)

We’re all been smothering Liberatore with kisses and cuddles and warm fuzzies this pre-season, and it’s only just this week that I stopped to actually evaluate his form. 0.68 PPM from two games was enough to throw me right off his scent and rethink – is Libba really going to stroll back into a very strong (albeit young) midfield featuring Picken, Macrae, Dahlhaus, Hunter, Bontempelli and Wallis and just massage out tons?

3. Matthew Lobbe ($431k RUC)

Yuck. Good riddance.

4. Toby Greene ($473k FWD/MID)

I’ve already left my deepest sympathies with Dustin Martin in the podcast, but Toby Greene was another FWD victim that was crushed by the Value Train (toot toot). Tobes hasn’t set a foot wrong this pre-season, ticking over at 1.08 PPM from two efforts and even has some in-built upside after copping two vests last year. But has Jack Steele stolen the midfield time vacated by Treloar that we all thought was heading Greene’s way?

5. Matt Rosa ($411k DEF/MID)

If you can’t get past the 53-point barrier in two NAB Challenge outings, then I’m going to find it hard to pick you. In a vacuum, Rosa would be awesome at the Suns and I’d fully expect an 80+ return. Unfortunately, he seems to be one of those frustrating players that score wayyyy better as a 7th follower, rather than 3rd or 4th on the depth chart. Ablett, Prestia and Swallow injury woes have signed his death certificate here.

And yes, I’ve definitely cheated on these guys at least 16 times.

 

Investigating Investments

Vestwed
The sub vest was the worst fashion trend since upper-class teenage girls started wearing gladiator-style sandals and I’m just as glad that it’s over. That stupid green vest ruined more weekends than I’ve had hot dinners, but there is a silver lining here; hidden amongst the debris are a few fantasy gems, boasting value that we’re yet to truly unearth.

Here are a few ballers that you might want to boost up the list a little, now that they’ve shed that horrible sub skin.

Matt Suckling FWD/DEF: 83 unvested vs 80 priced

A three point sway isn’t an earth-shattering revelation that’ll have you re-jigging your side immediately. No-one’s pulling a Kevin McAllister face; medics aren’t combing the streets attending to readers who’ve passed out in shock. But an 83-point average puts Suckling in premium territory for a backman, he has that DPP flavour and early signs are that he’s going to bottle happiness for fantasy owners in Bulldogs colours.

Rory Sloane MID: 102 vs 95

If you trust last year’s numbers, then we have a Sloane-shaped bargain on our hands. However, if you suspect that Dangerfield’s departure might have contributed to a lacklustre NAB Challenge that delivered scores of just 72 and 78, then it might be best to slide back out of Sloane’s DM’s.

Brodie Smith DEF: 77 vs 71

I was burnt, like so many, by the flames of high expectations for Brodie Smith last year and I’m finding it hard to move past that. This helps though, knowing that he’s already 6 points undervalued based on last season’s uninhibited work. A NAB scoring rate of 0.91 PPM ain’t too shabby either – should I be rethinking Smith’s banishment to the naughty corner?

Josh Kelly MID: 81 vs 73

I normally wouldn’t waste your precious eye-time with a $406k MID like this, but just hear me out and then try and tell me afterwards that Kelly’s not oozing upside with a straight face.
a) 8-points under-priced after copping four straight vests last year,
b) averaged 21 touches and 86 AF points post-bye,
c) 113 points in NAB 4 to bring him up to 1.00 PPM for the round robin, and
d) A former early draft pick coming into his THIRD SEASON.
Do we have a breakout pending with Joshua?

Tom Nicholls: 81 vs 74

Logging 0.83 PPM while in bubble wrap was huge for those considering Nicholls this year, and I’ll find it hard to shoot anyone down after reviewing the influence that the sub vest had on his 2015 average. Tickles went 78+ in 10 of 13 non-subbed outings last year – I can only see him improving that with another year under the belt and the hopes & dreams of the Gold Coast faithful fueling him.

 

That’s all from me folks. Keep that (AFL) fantasy alive, and I’ll see you in the Moneyballin’ articles throughout the year!

mb_aflrd1f

63 Comments

  • No Gary Ablett? You dont think he will play Rd 1 or you just think he will be underdone?

  • I like your team miles better than Pearcey’s, that’s for sure.

    • So do I, but I’m bias! Pearcey has experienced success at the pointy end of the season and I’m learning things from him.

  • Great read and great to see you back!

  • Great to see you back on DTT. The Bullets were my favourite back in the day.

    Really like the team and only really personally question the absence of Gazza as well as Kerridge. Love Robbo in at F2.

    • Thanks mate. I’m around on and off over the pre-season and I’ll be Moneyballin’ for the foreseeable future.

      Yeah, as answered above, not taking the risk on an old underdone Ablett. If he smashes it out of the gate then I’ll reassess. Kerridge might be where the extra $96k goes but I don’t think he’s a must-have at the price. More of a structural thing.

      I <3 Robbo!

  • If Rachel McAdams wants me to wear vests on Wednesdays, then vests it is! <3

  • “Players trying to force their way into calculations at Tbetta Than You”.

    That’s classic.

  • Always love your writeups, Tbetta. Just a quick one on Brodie Smith, correct me if I’m wrong but he only had two vest affected games last year, which when removed boost his average to 77. Was just wondering how you arrived at the 83 figure, assuming we are talking AF/RDT scoring.

    • Ah, good call. I was using a dodgy source, 77 is much closer to the mark. I might check the other numbers for continuity. Thanks!

  • Preseason mini-bullets… That’s gold. Fantastic read,TBetta!

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  • Scarily similar to my own team, very happy that I’m thinking along the same lines as the great Tbetta. B.Crouch over M. Crouch is an interesting call and I’m desperately trying to fit in Josh Kelly, I reckon he could be a big smokie this year.

    Great to see the bullets back!

    • You weren’t that guy sitting behind me on the bus where you? Wearing the hood? Followed me into the toilets?

      Yeah, trying to stay clear of MPs in the midfield, I like my DEF/FWD balance better that way. Nothing wrong with Matt is that works for you!

  • “then it might be best to slide back out of Sloane’s DM’s.”
    I miss the Bullets :(

  • what do you think of seedsman?

    • Inconsistency is his biggest flaw. I’m too old and too tired for the Seedsman roller coaster, but his average will likely be solid over the course of the year.

  • Just something you said about T Nicholls being in bubble wrap for the NAB….could the same apply even more so to Matthew Lobbe who is virtually the sole ruck option at Port….Maybe he was told to go out there and run about a bit and don’t get yourself hurt…..have we discarded our collective wisdom from 6 weeks ago on some flimsy Nab cup form?

    • Yeah, it’s possible he was managed out on the ground. However, Nicholls with 66% TOG vs Lobbe at 79% TOG matches the eye test – I think Lobbe has just been spudding it up.

  • what do you think of seedsman should i just pick up someone like johannisen

  • Kept getting the message “A problem occurred with this webpage so it was reloaded.” which is what I reckon will happen with this side by the time teams are announced. I reckon you are pulling our leg Tbetta. And what, not one Eagles player?

    • It’s like it tipping – DT with your head, not your heart. My gut feel is that with the Eagles having a huge improvement year last season, they’re all pretty saturated and don’t offer ‘value’ as such.

      Obviously, guys like Priddis and Gaff will put up sterling numbers but I’m on the hunt for upside with my starting team.

  • Should I get abblet or Rockliff

  • Thoughts on Dangerfield and Dusty, and why you don’t have them?

    • Thoughts on Dusty are sitting snuggly in the podcast. Dangerfield has done nothing wrong, just don’t have the space to pick him. A few higher priority targets locked in before him.

  • Very very midprided. No Dusty, Ablett or Dangerfield.

  • i’m thinking that kerridge must have done the same thing to your wives that tom mitchell did to longmires!

  • Tbetta

    A couple of nice uniques in Brown/Simpkin/Kommer!!!
    You must be a very forgiving person maybe only Simpkin until he loses weight!!!
    Just do it – Brown>Howe – he with Hartung will benefit the most from no Shiels
    Also Howe may play more midfield attending the second most CBA’s behind Lewis 😋
    To find cash maybe that ruck downgrade but quite a good looking side
    Good luck in 2016

      • To the man with the small brain

        Hey Luke
        Post your crap comments elsewhere!!!!
        The criticism of the three players was they were in a lot of sides until their very poor NAB cup games especially Brown and Kommer
        Brown to Howe is very sensible move
        Of course in my opinion which this site is all about
        Maybe a tip for your good self is to improve your vocabulary
        Good luck in 2016

  • If Gary Ablett doesn’t play I’m tipping Essendon to win the first round of the season (which they won’t, because Gaz will play). Besides Round 1 is still pre-season for Fantasy, if Gary Ablett doesn’t play then there are no worries.

    I don’t understand why McCarthy is in your 22, looks to set really low in the 40’s. It would be even safer to put Tipungwuti in your F6.

    Ruck and defence are strong, but midfield is surprising weak as hell. No Dangerfield? Ablett? Hanners? Pendles? Sam Mitchell? You picked Adams (who will drop this year, can’t see why people think he’ll pick up) and Titch (who will also drop this year, will get a couple of solid games but he’s definitely not as good as other Swans superstars). There are also two weak midfielders, Oliver (who might not play round one, he claimed on the footy show) and Simpkin (you really shouldn’t expect his price to soar why isn’t he in the forward line?). Other than Lincoln McCarthy your forward line is good. Dusty is a big notable out.

    The team does need a bit of fixing, I’ll give it a 5.5/10, I can’t see it averaging anything over 1850 in Round 1.

    Plus for all you Taylor Adams fans have a little consideration over this, they got new recruit Adam Treloar, who is set to score a 100+ season, Pendlebury will be more in the midfield role and Swan will also be in midfield/forward and they gather heaps of the ball. Also Jack Crisp and Steele Sidebottom! Remember Scott Selwood? As soon as Priddis, Gaff, ect all rose up he dropped well below on his average. In conclusion I don’t see the point in buying him, he’s the most overtalked player in the Fantasy competition in my opinion. Mark my words, he’ll average only 80 this year.

    • Thanks for your thoughts Wathdog.

    • Dude are you going to critique everyone who warnie does a team reveal podcas on. Back in your box matey, i’d love to see your end of season scores compared to pearcey and Tbetta’s. I’m assuming you’re a top 50 fantasy player the way you doll out ‘advice” to the pro’s.

    • Hey Wathdog (funny name) can I see your team by any chance? With all that critiquing yours must be unbelievable!

  • Great Read Tbetta!!

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  • great team better than Pearcys only minor observation is i believe you lack firepower early on particularly in mids, depends i guess if you want to win the whole comp or just your league. You will score well i believe without setting the world on fire, you will make cash of course and then team will improve but believe early on you may lack a little. IMO of course

  • you must have a lot of faith in mccarthy to start on the field.

    • Don’t take too much notice of the position of the fwd/def rooks, they’re just place holders until Round 1 squads are announced.

  • Hi I know bit of topic but reasonably new to Afl fantasy and want to know why people try and get players that will get ddp during the season

    • Example: Callum Mills. You pick him initially as a midfielder, in the strongest position on the ground, where the most points are available. You pretty much have to upgrade him after 6 weeks because of the high scoring potential you can get in his spot. HOWEVER, if he gets DEF status after 6 weeks, he becomes someone you can keep for longer by switching him to DEF and then upgrading some deadwood in your backline who you were always going to upgrade anyway, except you upgrade him to the best possible scorer in the midfield. Best case scenario is that Mills averages about 85. This would almost make him a keeper in your defence, but still not good enough to keep in your midfield. In this scenario, him gaining DEF status saves you a trade.

  • Tbetta, thanks for sharing your team but to be honest that won’t get you anywhere.
    Midfield is ok but lacking depth and your forward line is doubtful at best.

  • LOL – Few more of those “up and coming Bombers” and you could call your team the “Thymosin Betta 4 You”!

  • Tempted to change Gaz to T.Adams. 21k cheaper and probably more likely to score better. Thoughts Tbetta?

  • Defence- H Shaw, Houli, Rosa, sheridan, weitering, harwood (Hartley, Ruggles)

    Midfield- Danger, Rocky, Hanneberry, Hunter, Graham, Crouch, Mills, Parish (Keough, Clayton)

    Rucks- Martin, Lobbe (Currie, Cox)

    Forward- Barlow, Billings, De goey, Steele, Kerridge, Wells (Menadue, Kommer)

    My goal with this team is not to rank highly but to win my leagues and be scoring well by the end of the year. Any tips will be helpful! Thanks

  • Tbetta, do you have a supercoach team as well? I hope it is better than the fantasy team you put up. :p
    Join my SC league, only a few spots left. 986506

  • Fantasy league code also: NPDMUYKH

  • Johannisen and Hartley or B.Smith and Howe?

  • Why is everyone picking Jesse lonergan