Dylan Roberton – Deck of DT 2016

Name: Dylan Roberton
Team: St Kilda
AFL Fantasy: $459 000
AFL Dream Team: $480 300
Bye Round: 13
2015 Average: 82.9
2015 Games Played: 20
Predicted Average: 80

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Why should I pick him?

Dylan Roberton. Who?

There’s a reason I left Roberton until my last Deck of DT piece. Partially because it was difficult to write, but also because Roberton is such an inconspicuous choice for any fantasy team. As I scroll through the My Team threads, I am yet to find one team which features Roberton, making him a delicious point of difference. As it stands, Roberton is currently in 0.78% of leagues.

Roberton has been at the forefront of St Kilda’s renaissance in 2015, not that anyone had noticed. After stockpiling recycled players across halfback, the Saints were looking for a rebounding defender and Roberton has been one of the better picks in the bunch. He played 20 games on the year, posting career bests for disposals (20.2 avg) and marks (6.0). But unlike most medium sized defenders on the roster, Roberton has the ability to push up onto the wing. Given Sam Gilbert was injured for most of the year, leaving a hole and lack of experience in the defensive half, Roberton’s game time on a wing suggests the light the coaching staff see him in.

He finally cemented his place in an AFL team last season, missing all but two games. In those 20 games, he posted twelve scores above 80, seven of which eclipsed 95. In comparison, Kade Kolodjashnij, who is $5k dearer than Roberton in AFL Fantasy, played two more games and had fourteen scores above 80 and eight above 90. With a scoring ability similar to Kolodjashnij although minus the preseason hype, Roberton could be a worthwhile investment this year.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Roberton is very much on of those players you’re unlikely to recognise if you sat next to him on the tram. This alone is probably enough to deter most people away. But we’ll continue…

After he shed his locks, Roberton posted a career best seasonal average in 2015. Aside from that, he has done little. An average of 66.2 in 2013 was his previous best average which is certainly nothing to ring home about. A

He shares the Round 13 bye with much more appealing backline options. Laird, Docherty, Simpson, Kolodjashnij and Houli are all similarly priced for that D2 spot, and all carry the same bye as Roberton. Arguably, Roberton falls below most of these names both in a general opinion and reasonable fantasy output, especially for a bloke who has had only one fantasy relevant season.

Finally, Roberton’s scoring relies heavily on his ability to mark the football. Across 2015 games, there is a positive correlation between the two stats. Every time Roberton scored above 80 points, he recorded above six marks – of course, the more marks, the higher the score. Only once did he record a score above 80 without having six marks and only one did he take 6+ marks and not have 80 or more points (see red dots). A reliance on marks usually results in a great variation in a player’s score given the dependant nature of the stat.


Deck of DT Rating:

JACK – Without question, Roberton is definitely worth a shot if you are willing to take the risk. He’s the perfect unique option in defence, but poses a lot of question about his scoring ability, consistency and fantasy history. Realistically, I can’t see him averaging above 85, which doesn’t justify his price at all. He may appeal to some, but to the majority, he won’t be, especially with the other names available for a similar price. I’m not feeling much with Roberton in salary cap formats, but is definitely worth selecting in draft leagues.

What do you see Roberton averaging in 2016?

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  • Too risky for mine

  • Been on my watchlist since last year when he averaged 99 from rounds 9-19, but agree it would be a risky pick.

  • On the high priced end and lower chance of being a top def end of those Defs around 390-470k, too many similarly priced or even cheaper guys who have brighter looking prospects for him to get a spot for me.

  • Would not be selecting a player who I do not expect to increase his average of 2015 or at least hold it (if he is already one of the top 3-4 in category).
    Is not even on the Coot’s radar atm but then again, this is what the deck should be all about – looking at players from left field.
    Well done Anthony.

    • Thanks for the feedback mate. Always handy writing about players not usually a topic of conversation because I learn things myself too.

  • Just wondering, why does everyone see guys like Laird and KK improving on their 2015 averages, but not Roberton?

    He seems to have less competition for his role and is in an improving team with that has underrated fantasy scoring power.

    • I think Roberton definitely has scope to improve as a footballer, but fantasy wise he might tread water. Laird (24.4), KK (22.2) and Houli (22.3) all averaged a higher disposal rate than Roberton (20.7) – a stat which is king in fantasy.

      Could go either way, but right now I’d rather play it safer.

      • Fair enough. I definitely agree the other guys are safer options, but feel expecting Roberton to average the same, while the others increase on 2015 seems a little unfair, as if he were to increase his disposal rate to be on par with the others he could average 5+ more than last year.

        btw I forgot to say, nice article.

        • I agree Lachie. Like other have said in the comments, aside from an injured 2014, he has shown progression which may indicate the same this year. Thanks also bud.

  • Suffered from a very bad foot injury in 2014 but the years eiher side of that show a genuine upward trend in his scoring capacity. All the indications at the Saints are that he will push further up the ground and should see plenty of the ball. Locked in for me.

    Private SC league limited spots available 549351.

  • Great arcticle Anthony! I picked him up as a free agent in my draft league last year and he killed it for me. I’ll be watching him closely come NAB cup

  • Good article but you’ve pridicred his average to be less than last year, no consideration from there

  • Nice article dude!

  • Hey guys in draft leagues will he end up better than Marley Williams, suckling, and J Grimes.. hes a tough one..