Tom Mitchell – Deck of DT 2016

Name: Tom Mitchell
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: MID
AFL Fantasy: $593,000
AFL Dream Team: $618,200
Bye Round: 14
2015 Average: 106
2015 Games Played: 17
Predicted Average: 115

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Why should I pick him?

Tom Mitchell has the perfect fantasy game. He is a ball magnet who averages over 6 tackles a game and has only played 3 seasons! He’ll be heading into his 4th season after finishing last year on a 147 point 3 round average!!

One of the biggest concerns when picking Mitchell earlier was his job security. Coaches could have sworn that he’d either slept with Longmire’s daughter or hit his dog because he just couldn’t get consistent games and when he would he’d be prone to the vest. Even after racking up a 64 possession game in the NEAFL in 2014 he was still overlooked for senior selection! But after having an epic preseason and dominating his first 3 NEAFL games of 2015, he finally locked down his senior role in round 5 and became an integral cog in the Swans midfield.

The plus to picking Mitchell is his upside is huge! He has a massive ceiling for his scoring potential. In 11 of his 17 games last year he went over 100 points, pushing it further in 5 of those games to score over 130.

In fact, when we look at the games where he went under 100 points he is still pretty damn impressive. 4 of those games were scores of 95, 93, 89 and 87. Which still aren’t terrible scores! The only two scores that seem out of place and brought his average down however are the 48 and 41, which were both results of getting vested! Considering this is no longer an option, it seems like a pretty safe bet that as long as Mitchell is on the ground, he’ll accumulate the points for you!

Also while accumulating those points you can be pretty certain that he’ll be running around without getting much attention. While he does get a lot of the ball on his day, he isn’t the most damaging player in the Swans midfield. You can guarantee that Kennedy, Hannebery or Parker would be seeing the close attention first.

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Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Honestly, the biggest concern I have when deciding to lock in Mitchell is his role in the Swans midfield. As mentioned above, he did dip below 100 on a couple of occasions. Drilling further into those games we can see Mitchell’s role was slightly different during those rounds.
In round 14 against Port, Mitchell was given a run with role against Boak. He possibly did this job a little too well and was a massive key to the Swans winning this game. While his score was still an impressive 105 points (helped by a handy 9 tackles) this did lead towards Mitchell getting more time running with opposition midfielders. In round 15 he was given the job on Beams for 93 points, followed by round 16 against Sam Mitchell for 87 point and then again in round 19 on Selwood for 89 points.
While these still aren’t terrible scores for a tagger, you’re paying a premium price for Mitchell this year and the difference between his scoring during games when tagging versus when he is free is too extreme to ignore.

Mitchell’s possible role as a tagger leads me to the next concern we face when picking Mitchell, that’s his coach Longmire!
In the NEAFL Mitchell generally has free range as a midfielder and his scoring certainly reflects this. But throughout his career of senior selections under Longmire, there’s definitely been times where it seems Longmire is actively working against his fantasy stats! (I may be taking that too personally but still)
In truth, this could be more because of the plethora of options that Longmire has to choose from in the Swans midfield.
Even last year when we have seen Mitchell get a chance to shine, he was still given the vest somewhat out of the blue and there were even games where he hasn’t attended any ball ups. Add this to the fact that Longmire may be grooming him for a tagging role and it does add another element of doubt when picking Mitchell.
While I know that the vest isn’t an issue anymore, I’m partly concerned that Longmire had previously used the vest as a way to rest players. Could this lead to missing a game randomly instead? I may be way off base here but it does have me slightly concerned…

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE – If he can dodge Longmire’s tagging role then I believe he can definitely average over 115 this year!
Mitchell’s price point puts him at an ‘awkward’ range that may turn people off. You’ll be paying more than the proven premo’s GAJ and Rocky but I firmly believe he is worth it! I’m hoping this price will turn off a lot of people, because the only thing better than having a player racking up a massive score for you, is when your opponent doesn’t have him!

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35 Comments

  • It’s either him or Pendles for me. Only thing holding me back is what his role will be. Wish I could fit both in.

  • I can not believe he is not a lock in everyone’s team. He is a piglet people and a future PIG. Do not pick him at your own peril!!

  • I had him then swapped him for Kennedy he is more consistent and I believe back to his best at end last year. There is no question on his role and he is only $1k different in price a proven premo – THOUGHTS

    • not a proven premium in dream team mate. only had a couple of good years and has never had a huge year. he is however going to play every game if he stays fit. Mitchell will however have a much bigger ceiling. If he is left to simply find the ball and not tag, i can see him average close to 120.

      • Holty Kennedy has recently had three seasons where he has averaged over 100, with two of those over 105 – not quite GAJ or Pendles but I think it is fair to say that the best contested football player in the comp in the prime of his career, with three 100+ seasons under his belt is very close to a ‘proven premo.’

        Euman, Kennedy is slightly under-priced if you look at the 2nd half of the year and compare it with the first half (He averaged 118 from rounds 13 to 23!!!). He is very consistent and will be a top 8 mid come seasons end. He is very durable and is virtually impossible to tag. If he picks up where he left off I think he could push his average between 110 and 115, if not higher.

        I agree with holty in that Titch has more chance to average 120+, but his role is too worrying for me. Parker is back – we can’t forget he was not in the side when Titch was racking up some of his big scores. This will no doubt damage his midfield time. If McGlynn is fit and back to 2014 form then it could impact his midfield time even more.

        Anyway, I will ssssshhhhh on JPK now ;)

        • cheers paul. i take ur thoughts on board. I dont doubt he is a great player but being one of the best contested players in the game doesnt mean much in dream team unfortunately. 2 years of 105+ in a row are 2 good seasons but are they super premo? maybe im just being greedy but if im paying big money at the beginning of the season, id be wanting players who i believe can finish in the top 5 in their positions at seasons end so i dont have to worry about trading them out come finals. not sure if kennedy can but (and thats a BIG BUT) if everything goes right for mitchell, i believe he will be a top 5, even possibly top 3

  • Mitchell’s role is the biggest worry.

  • The question is would you feel confident winning a league match not having him, and your opponent having him. Starting lock for me

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  • and he’s locked in my team

  • Locked him in with adams and neale

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  • I agree with the early comments about why he wasn’t getting a game. Maybe he did sleep with Longmire’s daughter as that seems the only logical reason he wasn’t being selected. Tongue in cheek!!
    So, to average what he did, even with the coach doing whatever he could to reduce his DT numbers, leaves huge room for improvement. I agree with the 115 average estimate yet you are only paying the price of 106.
    As good as Hannebery, JPK, Lewis & Pendles may be as picks, I do not see a 10% growth with any of them.
    He is a LOCK for me.

  • The people who don’t start with Titchell will be left in the dust this year.

  • Titch. Bloody titch. One player who has consistently ruined my DT. When I have him he was subbed. When I didnt scored huge. The pain. Its real.

  • he will be my 3rd selection this year. he is a gun and with no risk of the vest anymore, he is a certainty for me.

  • No for me at this stage. Without Craig Bird, Horse will be looking for a tagging mid. I can’t see Parker, JPK, Jack, Hanners, McVeigh, Heeney, or Mills tagging, so odds are it will be Titch. Considering his highest score in the 4 games he tagged last year was 93(AF), it’s a costly risk to take, but the NAB may indicate otherwise.

  • I would love to have him in my team but just cant trust Longmire.

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    Won’t be in my team this year. Real concern is of course Longmire

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