Buddy Franklin – Deck of DT 2016

Name: Lance Franklin
Club: Sydney
Position: Forward
AFL Fantasy: $452,000
AFL Dream Team: $473,300
Bye Round: 14
2015 Average: 81.6
2015 Games Played: 17
Predicted Average: 90-95

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Lance “Buddy” Franklin is the true definition of risk versus reward.  Will he average more than 81.6 in 2016?  I have no doubt he will BUT that’s only a part of the Buddy story.

I liken choosing Buddy this year as the same decision you need to make when playing the last hole of your golf club championships.  A par will put you into a playoff, a birdie will win it yet a bogie – well there’s another 12 months wasted.  There’s only a gigantic lake between you and the green 200 meters away.  Do you go for it?  Make the right shot and you win.  Mishit it and it’s all over or are you going to play safe and lay up?

So, what is it with Buddy.  Are we playing safe or are we going for it?

Why I should pick him?

Because Buddy’s average in 2016 will be in the top 8 of all the forwards, probably even top 6.  Apart from 2013 when Alistair Clarkson wanted to find out if the Hawks could win without Buddy dominating games and hence banished him to the backblocks, Buddy has averaged over 95 every year since 2010 except for last year.

In his first year with the Swans (which I believe is a truer indication) he averaged 94.7 in 19 games which is still less than what he averaged in 2010-2012 when in Hawthorn colours.  11 of those games produced 100 plus with the biggest scores of 157, 122 and 120.

When Buddy goes big, he can go HUGE.  Who will ever forget the 204 points he scored against the hapless Roos in Launceston back in 2012.  It is these types of scores that can not only win us our weekly match but can also push us towards winning the weekly fantasy competition prize overall.

There is no doubt that when the Swans have the ball in the middle – there is only one player they are looking to give it to next? – BUDDY.  His presence simply demands the ball and if it is not going into the forward line often enough he has the licence to go elsewhere and get it.  John Longmire is well aware of the fact that the Swans desperately need to increase their scoring in 2016 and if that is to happen, who is likely to be the main beneficiary – BUDDY again.

Apparently, he is firing on the track at the moment.  There’s not many doing that in January is there? Source  and he is over all of his niggles etc, etc.

Buddy is the highest paid player in the AFL yet his fantasy salary is well and truly below that so there has to be some value there somewhere.  The final note is – how often do you get the chance to put a billionaire in your side (the Bondi billionaire) at this price?

Why I shouldn’t pick him?

Where do I start?

The real question about Buddy is not what his average will be in 2016 but how many games will he play?  As stated above his average scores since 2010 have generally been in the upper echelon however 19 games is the most he has played in any season and in 2012 he missed 6 games.

Whether it be due to injury or suspension – he has been known to hit people a little high, Buddy just seems to miss matches.  As a premium in our forward line can we afford to cover him with one of our rooks after he has transgressed again?  Of the players who are similarly priced D Smith and K Tippett both missed 2 games last year.  T Walker and M LeCras both missed 1 and A Christensen and M Harvey both missed none. I’m not sure any of these are likely to increase their 2015 average by as much as Buddy will however does that offset the fact that they will probably miss less games than Bud? Let’s look at this!

If Buddy was to increase his 2016 average to what it was in 2014 (94.7) it means that he will give you an additional 288 points if he were to play 22 games (than you have paid for).  If he manages 19 games he has given you an additional 249 points.  If the aforementioned players maintained their 2015 averages and missed only one match they would score less over the season as a whole.    It seems that maybe I should have put this little exercise in the “why I should pick him” section J

His overall average, even in his good years, does come with the occasional icy cold day.  Last year Bud had 3 scores of under 60 (not counting his red vested round 22 match of 36) and 4 similar matches in 2014.  He really does give you a roller coaster ride with many highs but a few lows as well.

We all know about Buddy’s “mental health” issues but, do we really.  As a general run of the mill footy follower we have really been told nothing about these issues. The only thing the Swans continue to say is that he has “issues” and we should respect his privacy.  This then leads to all the following questions.  How long has he had these issues?  Is this the reason for his slump last year?  Is it simply “depression” or something more sinister?  Will it (whatever “it” is) return midway through 2016?

These are serious issues we need to make in choosing Bud.  Probably less of a risk in fantasy with 2 trades every week but is it worth needing to make a trade (if necessary) in the less trade friendly RDT?

Deck of DT Rating.

KING – Buddy has the potential to be a 2016 Ace however it all comes down to whether he will play 22 games or 19 or less.  He has the potential to win you games but conversely if he has one of his “off” days this could be the difference between a win and a loss in a tightly contested match.

In every facet of life there are risks to be taken.  Malcolm Turnbull risked his political career by challenging Tony Abbott and look where he is today.  By the same token Tony Abbott risked his career by making a “captain’s choice” and it didn’t turn out so well.

If you plan on getting to the higher rankings in fantasy or RDT, you cannot do so by selecting 22 “safe” players.

Is Buddy the risky one for you?

How many games will Buddy play in 2016?

View Results

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Bandicoot  –  anyone wishing to partake in a $50 RDT cash league can contact me at fawcusm@dodo.com.au

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29 Comments

  • One of a few players still to be able to kick a bag of goals a game. I can rotate him out for a couple of games if needed but has the potential to score big especially playing at the Sydney cricket ground He has a new focus and is training well it’s a strong yep for me

  • As a swans fan i’m very unsure. Buddy’s back at training: tick. Buddy has said in recent interviews he’s happy: tick. But Buddy only ever got his 96+ averages when he was aloud to run up the ground for those cheap marks. John Longmire has had Buddy stay in the forward 50 in every game i’ve watched. It could be buddy was unfit or he’s been given strict instructions too stay there. Maybe its a way Sydney are preserving his career because he has alot of years left on that contract. Anyway that my thoughts. If i’m happy with my team and can fit buddy in, i will do so. But i’ll be crying if Buddy doesn’t return the faith

    • KF,
      He is really presenting me with a dilemma. Similarly, as a swan fan, I hope to see him dominating sides as he did in a number of games in 2014. He has been in my side – out of it, back in and this will probably continue.

  • BTY – Third option of poll should read as “less than 19”.

  • Great first article Bandicoot.

    Personally Buddy will be a no for me this year. While I typically love and inconsistent POD I feel like there will be more 60-70 games than 120+ this this year. The fact he is likely to miss a few games doesn’t help his case much imo.

    • Lachie,
      I am probably leaning towards a No as well. He was in my side last week yet having done this research into him has made me go the other way.

  • Booming article Coot. Consistency is only the real big factor that might sway me away from picking him. But as you said – risk v reward. You wont win with the same vanilla team.

  • Suprised mr know it all john freed hasnt commented here yet

  • Locked in atm gotta take some risks i think wirh this track record he is a good 1

  • Very enjoyable article Bandicoot. Well done mate!

  • Well said and written Bandicoot. Also being a Swans man, the only format I would consider picking him would be Fantasy.

  • Tough Call. I’m tossing up between Billings and Buddy for F3 atm

  • Calling it “simply depression” is probably a bit wide of the mark, mate. Depression is the leading cause of death in a lot of age groups.

    • The comment was not meant to reduce the significance of “depression” in any way. I was merely trying to point out that in saying nothing more than he is suffering from “mental health issues” everyone naturally assumes it is “depression” however this may not be the case. It could be something else altogether – bi-polar disorder, schizophrenia or God only knows. Therefore, we all speculate.

      • I’m sure you weren’t trying to trivialise it Bandi, but many people already have a belittling approach to depression, and the phrase “is it simply depression or something more sinister” can easily be read to suggest that depression is not really sinister.

        No hate towards you, but a little edit would be great :)

  • Little too up and down and I agree with comments that Swans play him deep up forward no cheap kicks. Would rather risk a Jack Steele at 330k odd for example is maturing big bodied lad and was severely best affected last year and noting GWS have lost a few mids including Trelor the boy is a beast expect a break out – you heard it here first LOL

  • anyone need reviewing of a team in depth, bored right now

  • Great article Bandicoot.

    Definitely still considering him. Buddy + D. Smith are about equal at the moment, just have to decide which one to pick.

  • Nice write up Bandicoot. Tempting – Bud could go bang in the early rounds with a few of those sides lacking quality KPD’s. Close to a lock for me at this stage (being January and all).

  • Thank you to all who have said they enjoyed the article. Got to admit I loved doing it and it has actually changed my position on Buddy.

    • That’s why I enjoy writing them. Encourages you to did for the deeper statistics which can actually contribute to your team and the trades that you make.

  • I was heavily in to Buddy, Bandicoot. I think people are writing him off due to the latter half of last season.

    Have a feeling he will take the comp by storm and prove a point.

    Good work mate

  • Fantastic article Coot! Has now changed my viewpoint on Buddy… :)

  • Buddy is someone you need to pick from the start of the year because the longer you hold off the riskier he becomes