Taylor Adams – Deck of DT 2016

Name: Taylor Adams
Club: Collingwood
Position: MID
AFL Fantasy: $560,000
AFL Dream Team: $586,800
Bye Round: 13
2015 Average: 101.2
2015 Games Played: 18
Predicted Average: 105-120

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Why Should I Pick Him?

As promised by many, Taylor Adams had a breakout season in 2015, pushing his averaging up 30 points from an average of 71 in 2014 to an average of 101 points per game in 2015. How does that make him relevant in 2016 however?

Adams averaged 113.6 points in his last 10 games of the year. This includes an injury affected score of 41, in which he was substituted off at half time. 7 of his scores in these last 10 games were above 110, further demonstrating his massive fantasy potential.

Adams also has a massive ceiling, posting scores of 146, 126, 95 and 139 during a 4 week period in rounds 11-15, along with scores of 135 and 127 during the Dream Team finals weeks.

He averaged 27.4 possessions a game in 2015, an increase of 8.2 possessions a game in 2014. Along with this, Adams increased his marks and tackles per game average to 4.4 and 5 respectively. This is important as it guarantees us a consistent score almost every week, which is vital in the fantasy formats.

Unfortunately, Adams will not have FWD eligibility this year, to the disappointment of many DT coaches. However, could this be a good move? Although I am disappointed with the departure of his dual position status (correct move by Champion Data), this will make him even more tastier causing his ownership numbers to significantly drop. This will make him a unique point of difference.

Adams’ tagging days are over, and therefore he should be picked with confidence. He should also play entirely midfield for the whole year.

Pendles - Heat MapThere have been signs that Scott Pendlebury may be rotating between the midfield and the half back line as well. In rounds 22 and 23 last year, he played a significant half back, midfield role, as shown by the heat maps below. Will this be a sign of things to come? Buckley has also reported that Sidebottom will spend more time up forward, strengthening the stocks of Taylor Adams. And of course Swan will rotate in the midfield but will spend more time than ever in the position of full forward, as Collingwood looks to give their young guns ever more opportunity in the middle.

Plus Taylor Adams has apparently been fitter than ever, and is ‘tearing up the track’. This gives us a tad of confidence, however we tend to hear this every preseason. Haha.

Why Shouldn’t I pick him?

Taylor Adams only played 18 games this year. He missed a game due to a toe injury, came back for 4 games, and then got suspended for 2 matches for a hefty knee to the head against Port Adelaide’s Justin Westhoff, in which he claims he ‘got caught up in the moment’. This can be a pain, especially if something like this happens in finals time.

Although it’s a bit early to be talking about the byes, Adams shares the round 13 bye with many popular midfield players, such as Ablett, Crouch, O’Meara, Pendlebury, Montagna, Brandon Ellis and more midfield premiums. Come bye time, your team could be in a bit of trouble if you include most of the above players.

Some people may find him pretty pricey, with many opting for the cheaper midprice option with players such as Gibbs, Crouch, O’Meara and Libba. These people will have extra cash in the bank, and some of these midprice options may even have similar outputs to Adams, however I highly doubt that.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING – I believe that Adams will reap the rewards from departing with his tagging duties, and as a result I seriously don’t know any reasons why he’ll go down in average from here on. He’ll be unique and a massive POD. I have complete faith in him, in which I see him being a top 5 midfielder by year’s end. The sky is the limit for Taylor Adams.

Can Taylor Adams be a valuable member of your team in 2016 as a pure mid?

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16 Comments

  • What about Treloar coming into the side?

    • Does that increase or decrease his scoring output? Same goes for Trealor with that stacked midfield

    • That is also my biggest concern, as well as a fit Sidebottom. Would have been a lock otherwise

      • I suspect we’ll see Swan and Sidebottom playing more up forward and Pendlebury across half back which should see the likes of Adams, Treloar, Crisp and Greenwood playing most of their time through the middle.

        Heopfully we’ll see something like this in preseason.

    • As Barkhammer said below, reports have been leaked that Sidebottom will spend more time up forward, Pendlebury will be rotating with the half-back line, and Swan will play evermore time up forward as Collingwood look to give their young guns more TOG than ever.

    • Bottom line is that based on Adams’ finish to the year, and his desperation for the ball (goes hard at it), I cannot see Collingwood booting him out of the midfield, meaning that he should play 100% of his game time in the midfield.

  • I can see some improvement, but as a MID, I don’t think I can fit him in. Maybe a 105-108 average for me. Too much unknown about the Collingwood midfield.

  • Good article Benjo, but there is too much better value in the midfield in Jelwood, Watson, Gibbs, Crouch, JOM and Libba.

    As a Collingwood fan, I can assure you there will be a lot of midfield competition.
    Pendlebury
    Sidebottom
    Swan
    Crisp
    Greenwood
    Adams
    Macaffer
    And chuck in a quick stint from Blair and Elliott, not forgetting Broomhead and De Goey, there is too much midfield competition. Too unpredictable.

    Top 5 midfielder is a huge call. Top 10 perhaps, but even that’s a long shot.

    I won’t be starting him, at least not over Pendles, but even then it’s hard to fit into a midfield with Gaz, Rocky, Libba and Crouch all but locked. You need those few X-Factor players and he could very well be it, but he could come and bite you in the bum.

    Good article, looking forward to tomorrow.

  • I’m waiting for the NAB challenge to come around before picking him with confidence. Depending on his role and midfield time I reckon he can push an avg of 110.

  • 120 average…Only in dreams!!

    • Any reasons why he can’t avg 120? It may be a bit of a push but what is the downside to Adams’ game?

      I see him averaging anywhere between 105 and 120.

  • I agree he could MAYBE go past the 105 barrier but an awful lot of quality players that can take points off him with the recent inclusions of greenwood, treloar, crisp and even de goey plus the rest of the stalwarts rotating through the guts..

    Also historically even the highest averaging players take 6-7 seasons to even get near the 120 mark. (i dont have my prospectus in front of me)
    Gary took 6-7 seasons before he made the jump to 118 odd, swanny took 6 seasons to go from 102 to 119 and rockliff took 6 seasons to get to 134..

    Interestingly enough adams has taken 4 seasons to peak at 101 but as mentioned, the numbers show that even the very best take time and i dont rate adams in the Gaj/swanny/rockliff league…Not yet anyway!!