The 2015 Brownlow-AFL Fantasy Connection

Whilst it is always best practice to watch every game of the AFL Home & Away season in order to predict Brownlow votes, a look back at the numbers can sometimes guide you in the right direction for the allocation of your future forecast votes.

With the 2015 Brownlow Medal done & dusted, this year we decided to take a peek at how the Top AFL Fantasy scorers fared in receiving Brownlow votes.

The Top AFL Fantasy player received at least 1 vote in 70.1% of all games in 2015. That’s right, one of your regular Top AFL Fantasy players helping you each week missed out on Brownlow votes in 29.9% of all games.

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In a drill down of votes allocated, the Top AFL Fantasy player received 3 votes in 36.8% of all games. Next highest was 2 votes in 21.6% of all games & finally 1 vote in just 10.7% of all games. A few games finished with equal Top AFL Fantasy players so we split up what they received accordingly in to 3,2,1 & 0 votes.

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The numbers improved for the Top AFL Fantasy player when they played in a winning Team, 77.0% of Top AFL Fantasy players that played in a winning Team received Brownlow votes. Only 23.0% of Top AFL Fantasy players missed out on votes after pleasing most of their AFL Fantasy Coaches.

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When the Top AFL Fantasy player belted out a winning theme song they were in for another treat receiving 3 Brownlow votes in 48.1% of all winning games, next best was 2 votes in 20.4% of all winning games & 1 vote in 8.5% of all winning games. Again a few games finished with equal Top AFL Fantasy players so we split up what they received accordingly in to 3,2,1 & 0 votes.

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Now we decided to look over to the losing dressing rooms, moral was down and so were the numbers. Only 53.2% of Top AFL Fantasy players received Brownlow votes in a losing Team, it was hard enough to take a loss in the game for a Top AFL Fantasy player knowing that they were only slightly better than a 50% chance at receiving Brownlow votes.

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When votes were actually allocated to the Top AFL Fantasy player in a losing Team, 2 votes were more popular than the 3 votes which is quite understandable when AFL Umpires rarely award 3 votes to a player on a losing Team. The 2 votes were awarded in 20.6% of all losing games, next best was the 3 votes 17.5% of all losing games and finally 1 vote in 14.3% of all losing games. Yes again a few games finished with equal Top AFL Fantasy players so we split up what they received accordingly in to 3,2,1 & 0 votes.

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We also decided to take a peek at the Top AFL Fantasy player when scoring greater than 130pts, the Top AFL Fantasy player received votes in 81.4% of all winning games but that number fell dramatically to 62.1% in all losing games.
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Finally the lowest score by a Top AFL Fantasy player to receive Brownlow votes was Matthew Kreuzer with 110pts in Round 21, he received 3 Brownlow votes. The highest score by a Top AFL Fantasy player not to receive Brownlow votes was Leigh Montagna with 155pts in Round 19, he received 0 Brownlow votes but played in a losing Team.

So there you go, some analytics to help guide you through the journey of forecasting 2016 Brownlow votes. A quick glance at AFL Fantasy numbers might give you that little extra edge over others.

AFLRATINGS will enter the 9th year of allocating votes from every game of the 2016 Home & Away Season, votes will be available at aflratings.com.au.

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1 Comment

  • I did a brownlow count based on fantasy scores and it was pretty spot on. The only real mistake was I had Gaff and Priddis mixed up.