Roy’s Trade Talk – Round 17

Todd Goldstein and Gary Ablett set a new standard of expectation for premium players after their mammoth efforts on the weekend. This has left many coaches with an itchy trigger finger with the likes of Nathan Fyfe and Dyson Heppell basically being outscored by 100 points… yes 100. Here are some guys who I think are worth a look this week:

Bargain Bart

After coming back from his round three injury, Jimmy Bartel (FWD, $487,000) has been on fire with scores of 116 and 122. He is carrying a break-even of 85 leading into his game against the Giants and the Cats have a Fantasy friendly run home with makes him an attractive prospect. He has dropped $75K since the start of the year and is ripe for the picking.

Who’s House?

Luke Dahlhaus (FWD/MID, $480,000) has overcome a mid-season slump to score 94 and a season high 132 against the Cats where he collected 37 possessions and kicked a goal. This has dropped his break-even to just 73 leading into his game against the Pies who are renown for leaking points through the midfield. He is a bargain for under 500K.

Must Have

It is official, if you do not have Luke Hodge (DEF/MID, $584,000) in your back line, he needs to become a top priority. He is statistically having a career best year and that is being reflected by his huge Fantasy numbers. He has dropped under 100 on only three occasions and in the last three weeks he has not fallen below 120, giving him a three game average of 134. He has a break-even of just 76 leading into this week’s game against the Blues.

Sidebottom moves to the forefront

On the back a huge performance against the Eagles where Steele Sidebottom (MID, $521,000) collected 37 possessions and scored 128, he has to be on the radar as an under-priced premium. He has dropped 91K since the start of the season but has found form with three tons in a row to give him an average of 114 in that time and a low break-even of just 73. My slight concern is he seems to get increased opportunity to rack up when Taylor Adams is out and he is set to return following next weeks game.

Gawn But Not Forgotten

It can’t be ignored anymore, Big Max Gawn (FWD/RUC, $468,000) is getting it done. Finally given number one ruck duties, his form leaves many of us questioning why this didn’t happen a long time ago. In the last four weeks he has three tons including 139 and 146 which shows he has a ceiling with the best of them. The next two weeks he plays the Pies and Saints who leak plenty of points to opposition ruckmen and with a break-even of just 46, Maxy is under-priced.


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Twitter Time

As it is a Luxury trade… Risk it to get the biscuit!

Although I don’t trust him at times, Birch is a bargain

Say goodbye to Rich

Might be a tough into with the Dees taggers but Armo

Good trade

Great work, correct answer

Yep, dropped nearly 100K and in good form. I have slight concerns that Adams steals a bit of his thunder upon return though.

Rest option yes, but can you really watch Hodge continue to dominate and not have him in your team due to a rest risk? I say no

Knights vs Suns

Hope that helps!

Good luck,

Roy

1907_Fantasy-Form-Watch

58 Comments

  • Cripps-Bartel or rich-hodge. I can do the other next week. Just worried about Bartel’s breakeven

    • Hodgy’s BE is lower than Bartels, although GWS may be leakier than Blues depending on whether Hodge cops attention

  • Great article as always Roy! Certainly helps me with my trades! Going Wallis –> Fields (on bench) and McKernan –> Jacobs/Gawn leaving 120k-160k. Should then leave enough coin to go Rich –> Hodge next week. Who should I get this week? Gawn or Jacobs? Cheers :)

  • Also is Gawn’s JS in the Melbourne line-up secure, as he has the likes of Spencer, Fitzpatrick and Jamar all on the sidelines?

  • Which pair of trades is better?
    Cripps -> Ablett, Hibberd -> Birchall

    B.Smith -> Hodge, Kavanagh -> 120ker

  • Would like your thoughts

    Can go the following –
    1- Cripps and Rich to Ablett and Eski which means McKernan is at F6 leaving $46K
    2 – Naitanui and Cripps to Ablett and Bartel (using DPPs) which then puts Kreuzer at R2 and McKernan R3 leaving $116K to get Rich to a Premo (will have a full premo forward line then) next week. Was tossing up between Sidebottom and Bartel (Steele would be F6 or M8)

    Thoughts?

    • Why in the christ would you trade NicNat? He’s not injured is he? I think option 1 is the way to go, but it depends on A. whether McKernan plays, B. who your F7 would be, C. who else in your team needs upgrading.

      • Where were you 3 weeks ago Forbinator?? I traded him for McKernan so I could use the extra cash for another upgrade (as I thought McKernan was capable of a similar average)…..

        If McKernan gets dropped (which I presume is what you were hinting at above), I’m completely screwed!!

        • Ha yeah I wish I’d logged on three weeks ago! By downgrading a premium to fund another upgrade you essentially robbed Peter to pay Paul, and it possibly even means you’ll be a week later in “finishing” your team than you would otherwise have been. McKernan was still a great cash cow though and he earned you plenty of money. Hopefully he plays even if Giles does get a run. :)

      • Trade Nic Nat to McKernan onto bench rather than F6 (F7 is Knight)
        Nic Nat has been good for me the last 6 weeks since I traded him in (risen $80k and steady scores) but he was only ever brought in as a stepping stone for Martin (Goldy other ruck). With Kreuzer I think there will only be a 10-20 point difference. McKernan to Bartel though would be 40-70point difference.
        Problems in my team are Rich (D6), McKernan(F6) and Steele(M8). I will keep Steel for awhile or have as bench cover. Rich and McKernan are my biggest problems. Cripps to Ablett will stand either way.

        • I guess if you desperately need the points for a league win this week, then you might as well get Bartel (BE 85), but if you’re going for overall, then I think you have to play the breakevens; Rich (BE 76) therefore has to be traded to Malceski (BE 45), giving you an extra week for NicNat (BE 79), Kreuzer (BE 37) and McKernan (BE 45) to ALL rise in price as well as give you extra data on who you want to keep out of those guys.

    • Grover1974, I am doing almost exactly your #1 trade, except I’m bringing in Fields rather than Eski.

  • Field Knights or O’Brien?

  • Malceski or Kelly? Cant afford Birchall this week and I cant afford to keep Lumumba for one week longer.

  • have fun and play the picking game!

    Wallis and van Berlo will go for:

    a. Sidebottom & Rioli
    b. Motlop & Bartel
    c. Motlop & Rioli
    d. Motlop & Roughead
    e. your suggestion

  • awesome read as always Roy!

    im still stuck with my trades though..

    Cripps -> Ablett is my first trade, but my punt on B. Smith is already looking horrid 2 weeks in. im about 20k short of swapping him straight to Malsexy.. is there anyone else around his price worth punting on or should I be looking at a Hibbo downgrade -> Malsexy as he is also being a potato!!

    or seeing as my man Goldy made Mckernan look second rate, he may not play this week as Giles had a decent game in the 2s.. should I downgrade him and deal with Smith next week :-/

    any help would be awesome!!! ha

  • Maric > Goldy or Rich > Ablett??

  • Thoughts on what should be my first priority..

    A. Cripps -> Ablett (Would require playing either Glenn Glenn or Stretch on the field)
    OR
    B. Stretch -> Griffin (Could hopefully swing him back if he gets DPP then upgrade Thurlow to a premo mid)
    OR
    C. Stretch -> Selwood and hope he has another killer end to a season (or even Sloane)

    B and C would leave Cripps at M8

    • A. Ablett’s breakeven is lower than Griffen’s, and Cripps’s breakeven is much higher than Stretch’s. Also Ablett could just about outscore Griffen + Cripps on his own, so Ablett + Stretch should definitely outscore Griffen + Cripps. I won’t dignify option C with a response. :P

  • Thinking Krakouer>Knight & Fyfe>Gazza. Worried that Fyfe is carrying an injury.

  • Def. Hodge, Shaw, Yeo, Newnes, Laird, Oxley (Edwards, Byrne)

    Mids. Lewis, Parker, Rockliff, Ebert, Hepple, Barlow, Wallis, Cripps (Kavanargh, Dumont)

    Rucks. Goldstein, McKernan (Lobb, Holmes)

    Fwds. Swan, Gray, Martin, Mitchell, Zorko, Steele (Clarke, Knight)

    $122k in kitty.

    This week looking at …

    Cripps -> Ablett
    Clarke -> Lambert
    Leaving me with $92k

    Thoughts?

  • goddard or bartel? both bottomed out and only a small difference in cash, goddard probably with the easier run coming up

    • I am going Bartel – Goddard was great early but his recent form dip put him off my radar. Avoiding Ess players at the moment as well.
      Goddard too risky for me

  • Griffen or Wallis for Ablett?
    Would Griffen be a sneaky chance for MID/DEF status next week?

    And who’s the best sub-$155k defender? JKolo? Barrass? Browne (if named)?

    • Barrass name has been thrown around a fair bit here….may get game time and with McGovern out could play the rest of the season

  • $4k short of Leuy to Bartel

    do I go

    Leuy -> Dahlhaus
    or
    Hogan -> Bartel

  • Hi all, really struggling to decide this week….

    Thoughts on:

    1. Oxley>Hodge, Wallis>Sidebottom
    2. Oxley>Malceski, Wallis>Ablett
    3. Franklin>Bartel, Wallis>Ablett ($80k left over to upgrade Ox next week)
    4. Jack Steele (on field)>Sidebottom, Franklin>Bartel

    Than you very much in advance – I’m stumped, normally I’d say #1 but I find it hard leaving Ablett out after 175!

  • Parker to Hodgey
    OR
    Fyfe to Bartel?

  • fyfe > bartel via knight dpp and cripps > rocky

    OR

    beams > bartel via knight dpp and cripps > gaz

    • Option B.

      Ablett will average higher than Rocky, and Beams will get tagged hard this weekend.

    • Need to see your team. Surely you have bigger problems than Fyfe and Beams? Beams had a minor shoulder complaint that affected his scoring against Melbourne. I can’t see North tagging as hard as they did. Are you playing Knight on field? If so, that’s a bigger problem and you’d need to do some cash generation to fix that rather than doing this sideways stuff. :p

      • McVeigh, Newnes, Simmo, Hibbo, Eski, B.Smith (Schade, Clurey)
        Beams, Fyfe, I.Smith, Parker, Barlow, Jelwood, Cripps, Wines (Ah Chee, Prudden)
        Goldy, Kreuz (Homes, Clark)
        Swan, Dusty, Titchell, Gray, Boomer, Knight (O’Brien, Lambert)

        33K in kitty

        • Cripps > Gaz and Clark > Nankervis/Griffen, if you’re playing breakevens. Bartel can probably wait a week.

          Of course if Beams doesn’t actually get named that might change things. But even so, you might be ok playing a rookie mid for one week. It depends on league fixture and whether you’re desperate for points this week.

  • knights or O’Brien?

  • who should be first to go out of fyfe and barlow?

  • AFL Fantasy:

    DEF: Hodge, Mundy, Mcveigh, Yeo, Malceski, Smith (Byrne, Flynn)

    MID: Pendles, Parker, Lewis, Fyfe, Heppel, Wallis, Cripps, Knight (Dumont, Amon)

    RUC: Goldy, Mckernan (Nankervis, King)

    FWD: Swan, Martin, Riewolt, Gray, Goddard, Steele (Fantasia, Lambert)

    16k in the bank…

    I’m thinking of going:

    Dumont to Prudden
    and
    Wallis to Rocky, leaving 15k for next week…

    Are these trades good??

  • Still on a mission to upgrade all my field playing rookies. So this week looking at:
    McKernan –> Nankervis (downgrade R3)
    and
    Colq –> Birchall
    – with 5k remaining

    Thoughts? Any other possibilities?

    D: Hodge, Boyd, Hibberd, Laird, Newnes, Birchall (Z.Jones, Fields)
    M: Fyfe, Pendlebury, Ebert, Lewis, Parker, Heppell, Wallis, Cripps (Glenn, Amon)
    R: Martin, Goldy (Nankervis, Holmes)
    F: Martin, Swan, Dahlhaus, Gray, Reiwoldt, Steele (Lambert, Fantasia)

  • Field knights or Lambert?

  • Hey guys any advice on trades this round. Should I go all out for Gary?

    Shaw, McVeigh, Hibbard, Mackie, Malceski, B Smith (Colquhoun, Bryne)

    Hannebery, Fyfe, JP Kennedy, Priddis, Rockliff, Bontompelli, B Hill, Ellis-Yolmen (Amon, Neal-Bullen)

    Jacobs, Gawn (Cordy, O’brien)

    Swan, Gray, Zeibell, Franklin, Gunston, Mckernan (Membrey, Lambert)

    Cheers!

  • Thinking Membrey>120k forward & B Hill>Ablett

  • Thoughts on Cripps > Ablett and Heppell > Dahl/Sidey?

  • Should I field McKernan or Leue this week?