Steve Johnson – Deck of DT 2015

Name: Steve Johnson
Club: Geelong
Position:  Midfielder
AFL Fantasy: $613,000
AFL Dream Team: $610,000
Bye Round: 13
2014 Average: 108
2014 Games Played: 17
Predicted Average: 116

Why should I pick him?

Steve Johnson’s name is regularly thrown around to be the next pig in the pen and rightfully so. As you can see below, he can pump out some massive scores on his day. Over the last two years, Steve has scored over 140+ in 23% of his games and when you compare that to the other greats of our Fantasy game such as Swan (8%), Ablett (14%) and Rocky (28%) you’ll see he measures up exceptionally well.

Will Stevie J become the next pig?

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In 2013, Stevie was the highest averaging Fantasy player in the game (118.3pts) and last year he averaged 10pts less. He is under-priced!

He’s cheaper than Rocky (but who isn’t it). In fact, after being the most expensive player in the midfield in 2013, he’s now ranked at #6. Instead of picking Rocky, Stevie will save youstevie's top 8 a cool $150,000 and $60,000 by passing on Ablett.

Steve Johnson loves to find the ball, the reason he could gain pig status this year is not only because of his big scores, but his potential to pick up cheap possessions and easy uncontested marks. If he’s having a bad day, he’ll find the ball and find you points.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Firstly, let’s cover his injuries and his 2015 pre-season issues.

Stevie J hasn’t played a full season of football in the last six years and he enters his 13th season this year, only to have completed a full season once. Add to this, in the last two years, he has missed a massive 11 games. It’s very safe to say that he’s very unreliable, lacks durability and often ‘rested’ by the Cats.

Early in this pre-season, Stevie was given ‘downtime’ by the Cats and missed a fair amount of training. His reoccurring right foot injury is a huge concern for Fantasy coaches.

Another reason that might steer you away from Stevie this year, is the fact that he has some tough games firat up on including… another clash with Crowley in round 2. Last year, Stevie only managed 58 and 56 against Freo, and then in round three and four he plays Gold Coast (103pts in 2014) and then the Kangaroos (67pts).

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE – What we have here… is a top 5 averaging midfielder in 2015. The biggest issue with Stevie is of course his durability and his inability to play out a full season. We have a truck load of trades and a guy like Stevie now comes with less of a risk because of this.

Will I be picking him?… at this stage YES. Providing he can clock up some NAB games and his foot injury isn’t an issue. He will be unique and may just join the pig pen if he can stay fit.

What will Stevie average in 2015?

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18 Comments

  • Hands down the least appealing premium in the whole competition. Not in a million years.

  • Ripe for the picking after Crowley helps take about 50K off his price tag.

    • +1
      That could make him a great first upgrade in Fantasy.
      His tendency to miss half a dozen games makes starting him in RDT dicey, knowing he’ll most likely give you headaches somewhere down the track. Would definitely consider taking the punt on him as a late-season upgrade though, less games = less chance of copping suspension/injury/rest.

      • Couldnt agree more with you both. Will probably avoid in RDT but in AFLF he could be a nice upgrade target around the round 6 mark, or after the byes.

    • Spot on

      Will get annoying tags, goes missing at times, over priced

      M6 after Crowly damage

  • Ongoing foot issues… Not to mention suspension, resting & crowley r2 issues. Could be a sneaky upgrade target but shouldnt be in anyones r1 side.

  • My favourite player. Scoring really tapered off towards the end of last year though I thought and looks likely to miss a few games again. Burnt me plenty of times in the past with late withdrawals and this might be the year I steer clear of him. Last year’s late season midfield carnage is still fresh in the memory and I’m more inclined to more reliable folk this year like Priddis and Lewis.

  • That’s my RDT opinion, in Fantasy definitely an upgrade target as most seem to agree, not sure many will follow Calvin in starting with him but if you do he could be a decisive early season POD. Can’t help feeling though that this is the year the Cats finally drop off with another tough draw and I can’t see Johnson averaging 118 again but hope he does because he’s fully awesome.

  • Doesn’t matter at all if he’s the highest averaging player in DT History if he misses too many games! Pass, maybe an upgrade target if he’s lucky :P

  • “History is nothing. Confidence is everything.”

    My lack of confidence in Johnson – despite his chequered history in my fantasy sides – says no this year.

  • My concern with Stevie J has always been his standard deviation.
    2013 seems like the exception to his usual seasons.
    2013 his lowest score was 93 and his highest was 156.
    But tracking back most other season.
    2014, 2012, 2011… you’re regularly getting scores of around 60 mixed in with the scores of 150.
    Overall it’s still a great average but if you’ve captained him on a low score or he costs you a head to head that’s where that extreme deviation can hurt.
    He’s freaking amazing but I’ve always just been a bit too gun shy to pull the trigger on him myself and it’ll stop me again this year.

  • It’s easy to pick when stevie is going to have a really dud game though. It that moment you have the cap on him and it hits lock out… Every dawn time lol

  • in fairness, you can discount the GC game on the basis that he’ll be suspended for it

    just looks like getting a ban whenever he comes up vs Freo

    rd1 = normal, can pick with confidence
    rd2 = avoid, under 60 and possible ban
    rd3 = possibly banned
    rd4 = vs Kangaroos (who he scored 67 on last year)

    will be DIRT cheap come rd5 then, and that makes him an upgrade target (not that I’d get him in anyway, will probably only be M7 at best)

    • What are you basing DIRT cheap on, Samdiatmh? The new pricing guidelines in 2015 make that far less certain than in past years

      • RDT (because we don’t all play AF) still maintains the ‘old’ pricing structure – although I may have jumped the gun a little given that he’d have only had 1 price change by my predictions by rd5

        even so, might bottom out at around the low 500s (510k if I had to put a number on it), which makes him a fallen premo in every sense of the word
        now whether he’s the guy that you’re bringing in around the bye rounds as a cheapie M6, then that’s your choice

        I personally find him too inconsistent, but may be tempted as an M6, especially when the rooks are fattened up (also depends who’s around his price)

        • No worries – dont pay much attention to RDT at this stage. He wont be in my team this year in any format – happy to miss the big score from time to time to get consistency and value on my side.

          Too old, injury prone as he ages and too much sentiment for me

  • Thanks Calvin

    At the moment, he is slotted into my M3 nicely and will probably will stay there until he gets injured/suspended or both.

    Just hope not in the first round.