Dane Swan – Deck of DT 2015

Name: Dane Swan
Club: Collingwood
Position: Midfield/FORWARD
AFL Fantasy: $531,000
AFL Dream Team: $528,900
Bye Round: 12
2014 Average: 93.71
2014 Games Played: 17
Predicted Average: 115

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Why should I pick him?

It’s Dane Swan!

Really I should just stop this article here, after his many years of reliable captain service, that should have been enough.
But apparently there are some of you out there who are opting against starting with the original DT pig this year… So I’m going to take this chance to dedicate the Australia Day article to the man, the DT Legend and possible king of the bogans, Captain Dane Swan.

Welcome to 2015, where this is the cheapest starting price Swan has been at since 2011, which is an absolute bargain!
Priced at an average of 93.7! But why is he so cheap?
His scoring was hampered as he carried an injury last year before getting worse during his 57 point game in round 17 and getting given a few weeks off to recover.
He came back strong though, scoring 96 points playing mostly forward against Brisbane, then moving into the midfield and starting on fire against GWS with 29 points in the first quarter. Unfortunately he re-injured himself in the second quarter and was subbed out for 38 points.
Without these two sub/injury related scores, Swan’s average lifts to a more respectable 99.8 which would actually give him the highest average score of the forwards available this year. Because that’s right, the Great Dane Swan is available to be selected IN YOUR FORWARD LINE THIS YEAR!!! (yep, I’m still pretty damn excited about that!)

Even by his own admission and lofty standards, Swan’s been quoted to say his last year was ‘putrid’. Which is quite incredible to say, considering it still included scores of 145 and 122 before his injuries.

Once again though, just in case you’re new to this game or have forgotten, lets take a quick trip down memory lane together.

2009 – 115 point season average
2010 – 124 point season average
2011 – 119 point season average
2012 – 130 point season average
2013 – 117 point season average
2014 – 93 point season average
2015 – ?

Swan is one of the highest scoring players of the last 6 years, with a massive 14 scores over 150 during this period compared to only 4 under 70 during this same time. I know I’d much rather have Swan scoring for than against me!

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

So there are a couple of things to consider before locking Swan in, things that do seem to be scaring people off. I’d be remiss not to at least mention them!
First thing that has coaches worried is that Swan at this stage still hasn’t taken part in contact drills during training. While he is running laps like a man possessed, his fitness shouldn’t be a concern at all, but no body contact yet does have him slightly behind in preseason preparation.
Next reason could be his round 12 bye. Sharing the same bye round as popular forward options such as Franklin, NRoo, Goddard, Martin, Mitchell ect… depending on your team structure, adding Swan to an already stacked round 12 forward line could be detrimental.
Collingwood could be the next reason. They are currently in the middle of a soft rebuild which will see younger player given more opportunities, possibly over older players. With Swan starting this season as a 31 year old, he may be forced into the forward line more often to make room in the Pies engine room for their emerging young players.

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE – Not only in Fantasy scoring, but this brownlow medalist is an Ace in every sense! Even with Collingwood possibly looking to run young blood through their midfield, lets be honest, if you were Nathan Buckley and the game was on the line to be won, you wouldn’t even think twice about sending Swanny into the midfield.
Swan is an out and out gun of game. Even though he has produced some amazing scores in the past, including the before mentioned high scores last year, we aren’t picking Swan this year based on that. We’re picking Swan this year based on what he could possibly produce as a top forward.
Worst case scenario – Dane Swan replicates last year’s putrid season and you have a forward who averages 93.
Mid case scenario – Dane Swan turns in an ‘average’ performance and you have a forward averaging 100
Best case scenario – We get the DT pig back and you paid peanuts for a forward who averages 120!

But regardless of whether or not you start with Swan or not, at least consider getting Swan into your team for the ANZAC day and Queens Birthday clashes. Because we all know that when theres a medal on the line, Swanny will come to play!

Will Swan line up in your team this year?

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  • Oink. That is all.

  • The real question is, how can he not be a lock? I would have swan over Martin, goddard, lids etc. every day of the week. Just look at his previous fantasy numbers. A pig never loses his OINK! Lock

    • A pig will always roll in the MUD! A pig will always eat it’s FOOD! A pig will always have a twisted TAIL! #pigjokes

  • Nice one Anthony. Can’t see him averaging 115 to be honest his best days are behind him. I can however see him pushing it back over the ton though, and for that reason we really must start with him at all costs.

  • Chosen Robbie Gray over him. Port’s first 3 opponents in 2015 are teams Gray averaged well against last year.

  • top 50 league 4 spots left dont join if your hopeless 5HWFWW9H

  • Biggest lock of the year for me. My prediction on the podcast of being the most selected player is a few off at the moment (the 30% more popular than Ablett call was dumb). Anyway, you have to start with him.

    I think 105 is about what I see him averaging this year.

    • He was terrible last year, why will he be better this year?

      Or do you just think he is value for what he is priced?

      • I am not sure I follow your point – he was terrible but averaged 93.71. How many F’s averaged more than 93.71?

      • 100+ average minimum on the cards. Played injured last year. He’s a pretty proud bloke who called his 2014 campaign ‘putrid’… and yes, DPP makes me throw away the key. However, he was locked for me regardless. It’s Dane Swan. Look at his history. Last year was a blip. No, he’s not going to be his piggish self… but short priced favourite for me to be 10 points better than last year and to be the top averaging forward of 2015.

        • I think he is more than capable of returning to the stye, Warnie.
          He was the first player picked in my team and I firmly believe that any coach who chooses not to select him doesn’t know much about DT.

        • cool, so warnie’s locking in Goodes then?
          how can you look past a guy that averaged 97.5 over 3 years (as a forward) in 2009, 2010 and 2011
          and then Pavlich too? averaged mid90s in 2007 and 2008

          definate bargains those 2, gotta love me a pair of guys scoring mid 90s for less than the price of Rocky :P

          oh, you’re not going with them?
          see, the thing with an aging ‘premo’ is that everyone gets sentimental about him, rather than looking at the facts (that he looked fat and slow as early as rd1 last year – a wrist injury doesn’t affect physical fitness)

          • Brent Harvey is 36 and just produced his best ever DT season last year. Not saying I’m selecting him this year, but he was coming off an interrupted 16 game season previously…
            There’s exceptions everywhere. Play it safe and don’t choose Swan, that’s your choice, DT is about risk and reward. Whether one justifies the other.

          • He had a hip operation in the off-season…

            You’ve shown a little more grace with your comments of late, but you let your guard down with this one. Give me a line for what you think Swanny will average and I’ll take the over.

          • I’ll give you a line of 102 for Swan

            I do think that he is underpriced given the lack of a preseason last year, as well as getting injured late on (playing 3 of the last 7 regular season games)
            however, I do feel that his regular 110+ days are behind him

          • A line of 102 make your previous comments redundant.

  • The real question is, is he a chance for 100% ownership?

  • Won’t be starting for me

    • If fit he will be though…? That’s the only question mark at the moment. He’s spent a lot of time just jogging laps.

      • He is on the wrong side of 30. Very rarely do you see anyone improve their average after 30.

        He will play forward more. Collingwood are in a rebuild and will give opportunities to players like Adams, Thomas, Kennedy not to mention Crisp, Greenwood, Sidebottom.

        Buckley has stated that Swan will play the role that best suits the team…. to me this indicates the role he played up forward last year.

        This will be his second preseason in a row with an interrupted preparation.

        Round 12 balance… not just forward but in your whole squad. In forwards alone I see definite upside in guys like Buddy, Titchell and Adams, even Bennell. Swan I see no upside, he maintains at best.

        That round 12 balance across all lines is critical. Think of the plethora of rnd 12 bye mids. Ablett Pendlebury Barlow in the elite category with players like Parker, Prestia, Fyfe, JPK, Heppell, Watson, Sidebottom nearly there.
        All of these have more upside than Swan in my opinion. Factor in the abovementioned interrupted pre season, age and uncertainty on position provide more than enough question marks for me to say no.

      • http://www.afl.com.au/video/2015-01-23/magpies-summer-slog-continues-

        Little bit of video showing Swanny is taking contact…

        Aaaand locked in for me!

  • Cheaper than Dangerfield last year. Lock.

    • The ‘lock’ Dangerfield, who averaged 80odd over the last 6 rounds? – and proved the difference in many finals for owners (and not in a good way)

  • My only gripe with Swan is that if he matches 2014 (and let’s be honest here – sentimental value has definately come into it) then he’d actually only be averaging 93 by round 6

    is that what you want? particularly with the options around (Goddard, Lids, Martin)
    and wait for NAB for an indication? hahaha, considering he’s notorious for putting in as little effort as possible…. hmmm

    think an average of 115 is a little excessive (especially considering only 2 players beat 111 last year)

    scoring isn’t as easy:
    GWS no longer giving up big scores
    Dees playing keep-away football
    Brisbane youth actually stepping up (they were one of the hardest teams to score on post-bye, compared to one of the leakiest pre-bye)
    StKilda have tightened up recently too (read Brisbane)

    He’ll probably still be in my side, but I’m predicted more of a 101-105 average (which is keeper language for a fwd)

    • Although if he ‘matches’ is performance of last year, then in his first 6 rounds he averaged 104.5. Which was certainly helped by his 145 in round 5 and 122 in round 6.
      He still pumped out some decent scores last year and played the last half injured.
      While I do agree that 115 is high, I really don’t believe it’s out of the realm of possibility.
      Would love to see him doing more at training to right now to feel more confident though

      • I meant more if he matches his performance against sides he faces in the opening 6 rounds (so Brisbane, Adelaide, StKilda, Essendon, Carlton, Geelong)
        rather than his efforts in rd 1-6 last year

  • Hard to see him not starting in the forward line of almost every serious fantasy team.

  • League C on Swan

  • I was spewing when he was available as a forward as i had him locked already as a mid only, so now everyone will have him whereas he may have been unique before.

  • Locked and Loaded..one less spot to worry about.
    Top 100 Last Year..Join my league if you’re up for a challenge, league code: 5PK3EMNA

  • Lol, can’t wait to play someone who doesn’t have the Pig locked at F1 #rookieerror

  • Agreed Shake n Bake, absolute lock and the easiest decision of the year. His uber pig days are over but there will still be the odd pig score and worst case scenario average of 90 would still make him a top 6 fwd anyway. I think he’ll average high 98-102 and it’s one less player to worry about because the serious players will all have him. If he shows up in the unique column in my DT game on match day I’ll be salivating.

  • Anyone want to join my elite league. Code AMV9LZHA. Thanks. Good luck.

  • Need I remind everyone that the name of the game is to score the most points regardless of initial price…….of course there is upside to Adams, Titchell, Bennell etcetera….Are they going to average more than Swan, no chance. Are you going to pick them as F4 over Swanny? If you this is your mindset I’m not sure you’ll go very well this year. Adams will be lucky to line up Rd 1 after his drunken indiscretions.

    • I hate to correct you, but the name of the game is not in fact to score the most points, but to improve upon your total team value. Since each player is priced at what they averaged last year, (with a few exceptions such as injured players etc) then, theoretically, the team that improves upon what it is initially priced at the most, will win the comp. If you divide our total salary cap by the magic number (somewhere around 5665) you can see that we have roughly 1765ish points in total to spend on our teams. Obviously this score would be nowhere near competitve (remembering that some of those points have to be on our bench). The solution then, is to purchase players that you think will improve upon what they are priced at. Obviously the best candidates for this are rookies, since they are priced so low, but Mid-Pricers can work too. It also gives you a POD, which can be important, because a good POD is giving you points that nobody else has.

      Having said that, I’m keeping calm and locking Swan, just saying I understand why some people are not.