Nathan Van Berlo – Deck of DT 2015

313970-tlsnewsportraitName: Nathan Van Berlo
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Midfield
AFL Fantasy: $272,000
AFL Dream Team: $231,200
Bye Round: Round 11
2014 Average: N/A
2014 Games Played: N/A
Predicted Average: 65

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Why should I pick him?

How many players under $280K will you get this year that can boast previous seasonal averages of 93, 85, 83 &  81 in the past 6 seasons? One, Nathan Van Berlo. Injuries are a cruel thing in football, the slight bright side though for fantasy coaches is missing big portions of a year (or a full season in Nathan’s case) mean they get nicely discounted the following season. In seasons 2011 – 2012 he played 44 games, of those games in 22 he scored 90 or more including some monsters of 143, 137, 132 and 128. Don’t be worried about his injury reoccurring, already he’s back in front winning all the Crows time trials. If the Crows were good enough to make finals last season Nathan would have been eligible to play, so clearly he’s ready to roll. This man is an aerobic beast who for seasons has lead the Crows in all pre season running time trials and will be desperate to lead his Crows back into the finals.

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Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Under previous coach Brenton Sanderson the current Crows skipper was used in a negating midfield role. As such his scoring took a huge nose dive, so much so that in his past 40 outings only once has he scored 100 or above. In his most reason season of playing (2013) this was his scoring breakdown (times in brackets): 90-99 (2), 80-89 (4), 70-79 (3), 60-69 (4), 50-59 (4), 40-49 (1) and finally a 34. With a new coach comes plenty of unknowns about a teams line up, one thing is for sure NVB is competing for midfield time as a ball winner against the likes of Dangerfield, Thompson, Douglas, Crouch, Sloane and Smith. He’ll make it into the Crows best 22, that’s not the question. The real questions are 1) Will the pre-season reveal a cheaper midfield option capable of scoring more than NVB over the opening month? Honestly their is every chance. And 2) will he be used as a full time focussed tagger like previous seasons? If that’s the case his numbers of 2013 where he averaged 68 are about right. I expect Demons new recruit Brayshaw who is $20K more expensive in AFL Fantasy and $20K cheaper in Real DreamTeam to outscore him.

Deck of DT Rating.

8 OF HEARTS – Watch the Crows pre-season carefully and check for the role of NVB. If he’s used exclusively as the tagger than best too avoid. But if the Crows don’t use a tagger (or someone else gets the role) then NVB could be a fast burning stepping stone to a fallen premium. Plenty of risk around him as preseason games never use taggers and as such you could get sucked in to selecting him. Be careful, even though I’m a Crows fan I’ll be avoiding him.

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13 Comments

  • Without too much thought, NVB was a lock for me when I saw his price. Brilliant DoDT, MJ! This is what it’s about… so much doubt in my mind now!

  • My thinking is. He has to average a certain number in the NAB preseason games if he doesn’t reach that number then no, I think he would have gone back to tagging. Which is Fantasy poison.

  • NVB is a cashcow you cant ignore. I’ll be starting with him!

  • Doubt we will know VB’s true role until season proper – NAB form is unreliable and Walsh will be more interested in attitude and commitment

  • Interesting. Just had a read of the deck of dream team about van berlo three years ago. It predicted a 106 point average. It talked about van berlo playing better under bickley than Craig. And hoping that sando would set him loose, seems he did the opposite, making him a tagger. What will the new coach do ? I think a captain should be a high position, hugely influential player, like Travis boak. Really lead from the front. Perhaps van berlo will push that 100 mark.

  • Another way to look at it his starting price for Fantasy is $272,000 or roughly 48 points. Which is around 30 to 40 points below what you expect him to score. So he will make an expected return of 35 points or $198,100 profit so could you make more money elsewhere. Yes or No.

  • If the Crows continue with Kerridge as the main tagger, Van Berlo may be given a licence to roam up and down the ground, using his pace and endurance he could quite easily average 75-85, shouldn’t cop a tag either.

    Have seen him in many pre-season teams along with Rich. Certainly worth consideration, especially at a good price.

    Nice work too by MJ, another excellent write-up.

  • The question about NVB as I’ve stated is around role and style of play under the new coach. Watch his pre season, but to call him a ‘lock’ without knowledge of these two is crazy.

    Taggers aren’t great point scorers… Period. if that role changes then so does my stance on him.

    Does Walsh play a tagger? Maybe. Kedge? NVB or even another, maybe. Too many maybes at his price. Watchlist. Nothing more right now.

    No point having good job security if your midfielder is scoring under 70 at that price

  • The other doubt I have this year is his age he turns 29 and players tend to peak around 27. On the age/points bell curve I think he may only reach his career average of 75 points. So that is not enough profit from the money I will have outlay for him. If I want somebody around that price I would go for Rich he is slightly cheaper and will not be a tagger.

  • Agree with MJ need to look at his role but may not know until season proper.

    Also Rogue Nutter (love the name btw) definitely would make you some money but is there the chance of higher returns?

    For me at this stage he is in my team on the field. That said he could quite easily become Brayshaw in blink of an eye. Alternately I could have both with Brayshaw on field nad NVB on bench would be nice luxury and will depend on cash resources once team is finalised

  • With Rolls Royces like Jaensch/Henderson/Smith, I can’t see Adelaide being able to protect NVB in at he way that Hodge does for the Hawks, or even Dal Santo at North.

    That leaves full-time MID, tagger, or defensive forward roles on the board. Obviously, that suggests a range of scoring expectations. NAB will be a big litmus test either way.

  • Reckon he will just be a tagger once again. No thanks for me.

  • Crows released an article on their website today stating that Phil Walsh has no intentions of making NVB a tagger this year thoughts?