Fantasy Good Food Guide

I haven’t got much time this week due to cycling related activities and my quest to win the inaugural TDF DTTalk Ultimate Cycling Challenge.  So let’s get into the AFL Fantasy Good Food Guide.

Round Review

For the fourth week in a row the total points available was below average …

Points per round R15

The total number of hundreds was also slightly under average …

Hundreds per round R15

Despite this many coaches had high scores from 2,200 to 2,400.  Again this suggests many coaches now have all premium teams and are able to keep pumping out big scores.  The ‘bar’ for what we need to score every week has now been lifted.

The biggest point of interest from individual games was Brisbane’s form reversal – scoring over 1,700 fantasy points and smashing North Melbourne by over 400 points.  North’s inability to stop opposition team’s from getting lots of fantasy points came back to bite them here.

Fantasy For and Against Tables

The updated table of average fantasy points scored and conceded by each team is below.

Reminder that the columns headed Ts/Ks is the ratio of individual tons (100s) to team fantasy kilos (1,000s of points), for each team.  I’ve also put conditional colour coding formats into a few other columns.  For example we can now easily see which teams would be green if we ranked on average hundreds instead of average total points.

Points For Agst R15

Some points of interest on the Points For side:

  • Essendon, Hawthorn and Port remain solid at the top.
  • The next group down to Richmond are all close together and swap around a bit.  If we ranked it on hundreds Collingwood and North would be green teams.
  • Essendon, Richmond and Gold Coast are the teams whose points are most different to their AFL ladder position.
  • I expect the teams with higher Ts/Ks ratios such as Essendon, Port, Sydney and Collingwood will provide more consistent fantasy premium options because they need less team points to produce tons.
  • Conversely teams with low ratios such as Melbourne, St.Kilda and Carlton will be less consistent producers of tons.

Some points of interest on the Points Against side:

  • St.Kilda have moved to top after Brisbane’s good performance last round.
  • West Coast, GWS, North and Melbourne are the next 4.
  • If we ranked the standings on 100s conceded GWS would be close to a black team.  Also Richmond would be a blue sky team even though they are toward the bottom of the table.  Gold Coast would also be a blue sky team.
  •  Hawthon and Geelong remain the least generous teams.
  • Teams with high Ts/Ks ratios such as St.Kilda, Brisbane and West Coast will be more consistent in giving up tons, even when these teams play well.
  • Conversely games against Collingwood, Port, Sydney and Geelong, with the lowest Ts/Ks ratios should be treated with caution.

Do we need a Doggie Bag or a Packed Lunch?

So which premiums should we bring in that will go straight to the head of the table and start carving?  Also which of our non-keeper players with questionable appetites might struggle when faced with a few weeks of slimmer pickings? The following table shows which teams are likely to get extra (or less) points compared to if they played the average team.

Best draw R16 on

Some points of interest:

  • Gold Coast have moved to the top and this might assist coaches who have Suns players on the fringes of their teams.
  • Richmond are still near the top and I doubt Brisbane can defy their form 2 weeks in a row.
  • Freo, Geelong and Hawthorn are the best of the green teams.  Sydney are at the bottom with Port and Essendon who play each other.
  • Carlton are high, but there isn’t much there beyond this week’s game against St.Kilda.

These projections are applicable to both AFLFantasy and RDT.  However, Fantasy coaches are more able to take advantage of changing player scoring levels, and subsequent price changes, simply because they have more trades to exploit the situation.

The Long View

The extended analysis for the rest of the fantasy year including fantasy finals is in the table below.

End Season after R15

Some points of interest:

  • Adelaide have moved to the top and I think they will stay there for a few rounds.
  • Richmond, Collingwood, Bulldogs are next.
  • Freo, Sydney and Essendon are best of the high scoring green teams.
  • Other green teams Hawthon, Geelong and Port are all towards the bottom of the table.
  • Be aware of the cautionary comment below about the Fantasy Finals games

Caution – different selection behaviour in Fantasy Finals In previous years we’ve seen team dynamics take over and influence player selections in the last few fantasy finals rounds, for example:

  • Teams battling to get into AFL Finals, or a more favourable spot, will be going flat out and play their best team.

But

  • Teams with a secure spot in the AFL Finals are likely to rest star players.  This tactic appears to have benefited Hawthorn and Freo in past years so we should see it repeated, particularly if playing away and players would have to fly interstate.
  • Teams lower down ladder and outside of AFL Finals contention will play their kids, send star players for early surgery and give club veterans farewell games.

So in my view the team scoring percentage methodology that is the basis of this article will be more reliable and useful in the rounds leading up to the finals, than in the last few rounds of the fantasy finals.

That’s it for this week.  Please make comments below or hit me up on twitter @NixTrader.

Buon appetito

 

Psst … Trade Tips (for those who bother to read to the very bottom)

I’m batting pretty well tipping Stephan Martin and Anthony Miles as starters in the last 2 weeks.

This week is a bit harder to find a standout.  I am tempted to dump Sandilands for Sam Jacobs and get onto that good Adelaide run for the rest of the year.  Mumford is my other ruck.  I expect Sandi to have at least one rest before the AFL finals start.  Round 22 when Freo travel to Brisbane looks most likely, so that might impact some Fantasy Finals games.  This week is a good week for that swap as expected price movements will make it more expensive next round.

But I am also looking for another gun for both my backs and forwards.  So I will look closely at new DPP announcements later this week.  Nick Dal Santo (if a defender) and Kieren Jack (if a forward) seem the most likely options.  You should check these opportunities as well.

 

17 Comments

  • Hey guys need some help. Which trade is most important to do this week??
    1.Libba/Selwood to Kennedy
    2. Suckling to Bartel
    3. Chapman to Harvey/Jack/Zaha

    Thanks guys

  • 3,1,2 in that order

    Also, if you did 1 I would trade Libba before Selwood and if 3 get Jack

  • Please help! Which trade is more important:

    Tex > Buddy
    or
    Suckling > Any Defender

    Thanks ;)

  • Honestly, there’s a my team article for this very purpose. I for one read the article and will definitely move Adelaide players up for that finals bonus. Thanks.

  • Looks like Scotty Thompson is the go then! Great analysis Nix

    • Yes, I had a look at ST. He is a good option, with Adelaide’s run. Maybe Vince leaving has unleashed the old Thommo. Although I have bigger problems elsewhere.

  • Nice work Nix. Where do you get your stats from man? I do analytics for my job, and I reckon I could provide a few interesting statistics insights, I just need an exportable stats source…

    Also, just my two cents (up for debate/criticisms): I’m not sure how much weighting/consideration you need for the Av 100s scored/conceded, since most of us would probably have up to 3 premo players from a single team (eg. Pendles/Beams/Swan or Bartel/SJ/Jelwood). If you have more, they probably aren’t premos (eg. Langdon, Cloke, Kelly) averaging less than 100 anyway, and you should be looking to upgrade them.

    If a team is likely to give up 5 tons, it won’t affect you that much as long as your 2-3 premos from your team are getting the tons.

    I think the better indicator is overall points conceded when you’re looking at a player’s future fixtures as it shows how defensive minded the opposition team is in general. After that then assess the premier tagger in that team.

    Would invite other thoughts if my thinking is along the right lines.

    -H

    • “If a team is likely to give up 5 tons, it won’t affect you that much as long as your 2-3 premos from your team are getting the tons”

      Not true mate as a tonne is never guaranteed, and it’s never guaranteed that a Premo will tonne up ahead of a midpricer/rook. This stat does effect things a fair bit as a team giving up 5 tonnes on average will give a far better chance to your 2-3 Premo’s to tonne up. If that team was only giving up 2-3 tonnes a game on average then there is a far less chance that your 2-3 Premo’s will tonne up.

    • I agree with gambler, there is no guarantee from these stats that your players will be the ones who ton up. A better indication is the player’s form line of scores during the season to date.

      I include both avg points and avg 100s so readers can draw their own conclusions as to which to use for their own purposes. A team like GWS is a good example – they give up lots of points but still try to stop anyone who looks like going gangbusters, so they don’t give up as many hundreds as you think they would.

      But it is an interesting question. I’ll see if I can work out a way to measure variation of hundreds within each team on the FOR side to see which teams have more predictable ton getting players for next week.

      As for stats sources – there are lots of sites providing fantasy scores. However, no one talks about their sources in case they suddenly get blocked. But basically I have an algorithm that gets everyone’s score, sorts them into teams and adds them up.

  • Should i Keep jaensch than?

  • No. Better options mate. Jaensch is not top 6.

  • Def: Kelly, Simpson, McVeigh, Hibberd, Suckling, Jaensch (Litherland, Aylett)
    Mid: Goddard, Pendlebury, Beams, Barlow, Swan, Cotchin, Selwood, Jack (Obrien, Honeychurch)
    Ruc: Sandi, Martin (Currie, Thurlow)
    Fwd: Martin, Harvey, Gray, Parker, Dangerfield, Reiwoldt (Cameron, Kersten)

    $88,000 left

    Reiwoldt > Miles via Jack DPP
    Suckling or Jaensch > Dal Santo?

    Thoughts? Ideas?

  • Wish there was a like button! Well played suckerpunch