The Fantasy Analyzer: Lessons Learnt

AFL 2013 Media - Live Site Day 5

Pete Hookham receiving his winnings from a big 2013 season!

In a shorter piece this week, the Analyzer will give some advice on a very important facet of the fantasy game which is continually overlooked but will almost certainly help immediately, but also heading into future seasons, reflection!

 

 

 

 

After 14 weeks of football, a plethora of used trades and undoubtedly a number of regrets, now is as good a time as any for some self analysis. Go through your trades, noting why moves proved to be poor or quality. Keep notes of what your considered moves for the week were, why you chose this move and do you think your reasoning is sound to continue with in the future. Having gone through this week and analysed my side and trading strategy, I’ll provide a little example of this…

Retrospective Analysis

Round 3 Trades

Round 3 Trades

 

Swallow and Zorko were both players I noticed had changed roles over the first few games of the season, and there value was sky rocketing week on week. Patton and Miche were both stalling, and I had an excess of cash left over to make these upgrades. Undoubtedly, Swallow has proved to be a big hit, averaging 93.1 points per game since I brought him in and consistently being amongst the most dependable backs. Off this move, my strategy was sound, noticing a role change, noticing the value and determining the ability of the traded out player. Zorko on the other hand, was a bit more of an iffy selection in retrospect. He had come off games of 93 and 130, but has since averaged just 74.6 (or 80.7 without his sickness affected score of 14). I was largely drawn in by the hype and the fear that he may maintain averages of 95+ and be one of the must have players in the competition. Ideally I’d have considered the fact that he’d never had to deal with a tight tag, and the likelihood that he receive one this year with the likes of Simon Black retiring and his fast start to the season. At the time I’d considered Brent Harvey, who I determined to be more of a reliable premium, but lacked the value of Zorko and was if anything slightly over priced (which has proved to be well and truly wrong). From this I learnt that unless you’re fully convinced by a player, irrespective of your peers expectations, it may be best to put your faith in someone you can almost guarantee will be top line come seasons end.

Final Thoughts

Why do I always seem to end up with Zorko?

Why do I always seem to end up with Zorko?

Fantasy games can be fickle at the best of times, and determining trends can undoubtedly be more difficult than many could fathom to imagine at the start of the campaign. Irrespective of this, we must always attempt to pick up crumbs of knowledge for future trades down the line. Lets be clear, fantasy games aren’t entirely predicated on luck and people that think as much must consider the cold hard facts. How do so many guys back up with top 100 placings, year on year. Whilst I won’t name and fame anyone, a quick search of the web will help you realise that there are many getting it done! It’s possible people, you just need to separate yourself from the pack. So go home tonight, and analyse your moves, it may just make you 50k richer (and make you look less and less like this guy)!

You can follow me on twitter for any fantasy talk @B_Gogos and remember to tune into AFL Fantasy Radio Live at 7PM at a new schedule of Saturday! Ask questions using the #FantasyFM and we’ll answer them in the lead up to the game and then continue with a fantasy commentary during the game! Good luck with all your fantasy sides this weekend!

5 Comments

  • zorko to gray or jelwood to rocky. whichever don’t do this week ill try to do next week but ill go llyod to rocky instead of jelwood.

    Thoughts would be appreciated. Cheers

  • thoughts on max warren 115,200 DEF set to make his debut for north this week

  • did similar to you with Pav->Watson after rd2
    Thought Watson was the must-have (after busting out straight 130s) and Pav was too erratic (despite him being my F3 at the time – Higgins, Caddy and Watts my others)
    of course, if I’d have known that Watson wasn’t going to break the ton for another 6 weeks, I’d have probably held off

    haven’t really made any good trades, but jumping on a 270k NicNat in rd9 was probably my highlight (purely as an R3 switcher for Thickey, and helped me in r10 to a tied league game)

  • Good – brought in Libba at the very start of his run of tons
    Bad – traded Macrae after rd 2

  • A quick search of the web for players backing up top 100 placings showed sweet FA, mind elaborating on what you’re searching?

    Oh and thanks for the article, very smart thinking.