The Numbers: Round 4

TheNumbers

Welcome to The Numbers for round four. In The Numbers we look at the statistics which matter, the figures that effected your round, and the numbers that really shouldn’t, but often do, either make or break our weekend. This week, let’s work our way from highest to lowest.

 

30,889 – Number of AFL Fantasy coaches burnt by Shane Mumford’s last minute withdrawal, and subsequent surgery. Across all competitions coaches were struggling to cover Mumford, even in the rolling lock-out of Super Coach, many players ended up wearing a donut with his last minute scratching.

366 – The number of games played by Brent Harvey; the seventh most in league history. Can he make it to 400?

198 – The number of additional points Stevie J would have scored you this round as Captain compared to last round. (336 vs. 138). Johnson has scored 150+ twice in four games, with another 120+ game.

158Brendon Goddard’s break-even in AFL Fantasy this week after his 13 points against the Dockers.

125 – Points scored by Sam Jacobs against the Saints on Sunday. St Kilda have now conceded over 100pts in every game they’ve played, to the oppositions number one ruckman. With Essendon coming up this week, will Paddy Ryder return to make it five from five? Or could Jake Carlisle or Joe Daniher cash in instead?

107 – The number of points scored by Sam Lloyd on debut for the Tigers on Friday night. More on this later…

100 – The combined total that Paul Chapman, Shane Mumford, Gary Rohan, Ben Griffiths, Dan Currie & Josh Caddy scored one lucky coach (@joshjameso) this past week. Ouch. Caddy in particular looks like he is on many coaches chopping block this week.

61.8 – The average winning margin of all teams in round 4.

45 – The percentage of Port players who went 100+ in their games against Brisbane. 10 players of the 22 who took to the field scored big, and would have done their owners very proud.

40 – Points scored by Lance Franklin at the SCG. Usually a ground he plays very well at, his reputation for not being able to play in the wet is solidifying after his games against GWS & North Melbourne in the rain this year.

7 – The number of teams who failed to score more than 60pts this week. West Coast was the worst performed with only 32pts scored for the entire game, whilst the Suns, the Lions & the Swans all failed to surpass 50pts.

6 – The number of Port Adelaide Power players who had career high disposal tallies on the weekend. Matt White (26), Travis Boak (41), Robbie Gray (29), Jared Polec (25), Oliver Wines (28) & Thomas Jonas (21) had a field day against the helpless Lions. Can we expect the same output this week from Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Ben Griffiths & Matt Thomas?

1 – The number of wins Melbourne has more than Carlton & Brisbane. Their win against the Blues on the weekend, and the Crows win against St Kilda leaves just two teams languishing winless on the bottom of the ladder. Both teams have 18 more games to turn that around though. Who will end up with the wooden spoon this year, or is it too early to call?

0 – The number of games the Hawthorn look like dropping before the finals if they get over the Cats on Monday at the MCG. If they hold their current form all year, the bye week in round 9, and the second week of the finals series may be the only weeks this year in which the Hawks don’t chalk up wins. They are scary good.

-28 – The lowest breakeven this week, for Richmond’s Sam Lloyd in AFL Fantasy. Wow, these automatic price increases are really going to hurt some coaches who miss out on debutants who are spending trades on injuries and underperformers. Lloyd has already risen +$30,462 for the 3.6% of coaches who own him.

 

And that’s it.

Did I miss some numbers? Are one of Carlton or Brisbane destined for the 2014 wooden spoon? What sort of person releases Game of Throne spoilers on twitter? Tell me in the comments section below, or send me a tweet @RLGriffin85 if you find something of interest. Until next week, don’t forget; it’s just a game of numbers!

49 Comments

  • 276 – My weekly rank in RDT which, incidentally, is my best placing ever.

  • Thanks griff. I always find myself amused by this article it seems that you put a lot of effort into making this the fascinating article it is.

  • RDT only for me next year. Will carry on AFL out of courtesy for the leagues I’m in. 2 trades a week and price rises after 1 game are killing it, you can’t gauge how a rookie is going to go before bringing him in and by then he’s gone up $40k

    • I disagree on the price rises. People do research into these types of players and take a calculated risk on them. They should gain the reward of their 1 game price rise and should not have to have the rest of the compition given 3 weeks to be able to pick this guy up and reap the cash rewards.

      Note: i didnt have Lloyd this round gone.

      • I agree with both of you as on one hand yes you do research and take calculated risks on rookies you believe will do well like we did for the likes of Polec, Ellis, Tyson etc… But for the players like Lloyd you want to be able to hypothesis how you think he will go as he didnt play nab cup and without seeing him play an element of luck comes with that and the more luck in the game the less skill.

        Anyway there are both positives and negatives that come with the new system. A bit of innovation can’t hurt but I can’t really talk because I am playing rdt.

        • I actually like the two trades per round, not because it makes things easier and whatever, but more just because you actually have something to do every week, makes it something you have more involvement in.

          As for one round price changes, I’m not HUGE on it, but given the price increases to half the rookies anyway, it’s sort of looking like you have to accept you’ll be paying $150k for rookies these days. Besides, I still think the second week will be the big price change week, for example Lloyds BE wouldn’t have been in the negatives last week, so if he backs it up he’ll actually have a bigger improvement over what was expected of him, even with the price rise. Missing 30k is still basically peanuts in the grand scheme of things, and most rooks won’t get that scale of growth.

          Finally and unrelated, does anyone know if there’ll be any kind of rolling lockout this week?

          • There are many things wrong with fantasy afl but price increases after one game are not of them. It actually ensures people have different rookies. In the past, there were certain rookies that everyone would jump on after 2 games. People may still do the same this year, particularly with really high scoring rookies, but those who take the risk early will get more reward. Think of Lloyd. Hardly anyone had him and he scored 100. If he scores another 100, he’ll be well over 200k and it then becomes harder for people to bring him in. Last year, if someone scored back to back hundreds everyone would automatically jump on them. BTW – I didn’t have Lloyd but am bringing him in this week.

          • Yes there is a rolling lockout. Though I disagree with u that 30k is like peanuts if u think about it roughly 12+ downgrades at 30k more than what u would originally be paying equates for 360k 2 upgrades from the likes of a back line/ forward line rookie to a back line/ forward line premium.

            Though i do not disagree with ure opinion just that statement.

          • This is what the rules say:

            PARTIAL LOCKOUT: HOW THE PARTIAL LOCKOUT SYSTEM WORKS
            The competition enters Partial Lockout mode when there is a game that starts earlier in the week than the traditional Friday night game start at or around 7.00pm.

            I assume that means there will be a partial lockout this week.

          • Thanks for the Lockout stuff.

            I suppose it adds up, I guess it’s just that I’ve already lost and gained that much on picking in/out of form premos I don’t consider it a huge deal. I suppose I’ll see how I feel about it later on when I’m scrounging for change.

          • Yeh I meant to say partial. A rolling lockout to a certain extent.

      • The only real time to have an advantage by picking the right rookies is at the start but that went out the window with the free hit when everyone jumped on the same ones. With 2 trades a week we will all pick the same ones again without the thought of trying to hold trades over making money. I’m just not enjoying it as much as RDT where I feel it is more strategic.I’m pleased other people are enjoying it though. Horses for courses if we all liked the same things the world would be a boring place.

    • 1 game isn’t enough to show how a player is going to go. What now if people get Lloyd he gets the vest scores 20 points and doesn’t get picked again. I suppose 2 trades a week help with that. I actually do pick rookies carefully and plan my team accordingly. It’s hard enough to make money this year without prices rising on 1 game.

      • Exactly Ross, 2 trades a week gives the opportunity to take the risk on rookies like Lloyd. In RDT I cannot risk bringing Lloyd in now…in fact it’s pointless really. Where as in Fantasy I will risk it and enjoy taking the risk and seeing how it pays off. I don’t want, from an enjoyment perspective, to wait 3 weeks before I make a decision.
        Another consideration is that rookie prices move quickly, but you also realize your price gains quickly, so you pay more to start with, but your “asset” grows quicker as well. Essentially it more realistic and your assets true values are represented more accurately.

  • FootyWire stats show that their will be NO increase for Lloyd and Gray until round 6.

    Is this correct?

  • Always a good read Griff!
    Sorry if this isn’t the right area for a question like this but I’m trying to do the most basic DPP trade in trading Tyson out, moving Dusty into my mids and trading Lloyd into my forwards yet for whatever reason I am unable to do this… Anyone else copping this or am I missing something here??

    • It’s stupid, but it works by trading the player you DON’T want to trade for the one you want. So in your case, trade out Dusty for Lloyd, once you say do trade you’ll get a prompt if you want to trade someone from your mids instead, then you chose Tyson. Super dumb, but it’s how it works.

    • DPP trading hasn’t been properly fixed, so for the time being, what you do is select Dusty to trade for Lloyd, and because he has DPP status, a message will come up when you click trade if you’d like to use DPP and trade out one of your midfielders instead of Dusty, and place him in your midfield, you then select Tyson.

      It’s a little tricky and frustrating but hopefully it’s fixed soon enough.

  • Ripping article Griff (as usual).

  • Brisbane for the spoon with the Saints 17th, the Blues will win some games when Judd returns. Brisbane look awful and Leppitsch doesn’t really look like coach material. J Brown is finished. They’re a joke.

    Those complaining about the Fantasy price rises… how much do you want? You already have 2 trades a week and a rd 1 free hit, do you want everything on a plate? There must be reward for research and the price rises add a great deal of strategy and know how to a game I thought was pretty nuffy but am now starting to think might not be a bad game once Fanhub actually sort out their many issues.

  • I agree the one round price changes means you’ll most likely have to take a complete guess to get rookies at their starting point… BUT, making the game a bit harder is good in my opinion. Anything that means we have some diversity in our teams at season’s end is a good thing.
    That said, the AFL Fantasy website and app are still absolute jokes and I’ll be jumping ship to RDT next year.

    • My league jumped ship at the start of Feb, it all looked a bit too temporary and rushed, these fantasy games are not easy to build. But yeah at least with the new rules there will be a lot more variety in teams come finals’ time. It seems to have caught a lot of people off guard so I’m enjoying the indignant comments, people are panicking, no longer can you suss out a rookie for two free weeks, it’s a pretty fundamental change and I think it makes a lot of sense.

    • Everyone will still end up with the same rookies regardless. Crouch last week and Lloyd will be this week. There won’t be many get it right and put a rookie in before they have played a game as no one wants a player sitting doing nothing.

      • There is still a lot of potential for reward for picking these rookies. Might not happen this week but say there was carnage this week and most are forced into two trades then it really benefits those who jumped on those rookies early with the price increases.

  • gee this griffen dude can talk crap sometimes,

    “his (buddy franklin) reputation for not being able to play in the wet is solidifying” – thirteeeeeeeeeen ringing any bells?

    • Lol!! Yeah can play in the wet alright, or rather could… right now he’s a $10m statue.

  • does anybody know how much cash sam llyod would go up if he scores a 60

  • I tweeted last night regarding the weekly price changes with some interesting responses… I might even blog about it at some stage when I get a chance so people can give their feedback.

    https://twitter.com/WarnieDT/status/455652326477283329

    Basically, with two trades per week, every week the game needed a shake up. Not only with the initial pricing of rookies, but with the way the game was played.

    FabHub have the contract and I don’t know if there is something in the IP for VS with their three game rolling price average thing, but it is refreshing to have something different.

    Yes there have been a truckload of issues with the new platform, and yes the game should have been right from the get go… but they are working hard (and listening to people) to fix these.

    I am slightly surprised by how much prices jump after one week, but I really like it… as more data is there, we might learn more about the ‘secret formula’ of the price changes, but it’s still the same basic principle.

    Paying a few more dollars after someone has debuted makes more sense… I’ve said this a few times, just because it’s different doesn’t make it bad.

    Embrace change. Embrace a new challenge. Embrace a ‘new’ game to learn and master. Shame that things aren’t fantastic this year with the platform, but I think it’s a good thing for the official AFL game to be a bit different now from the other games on the market.

    The 44 trades (well, 42 + all those unlimited ones) is a winner. Good for engagement in the game – yes, traffic from last year backs this up massively – and it will create uniqueness in teams with the new pricing.

    Remember, we’re all in the same boat. Good coaches will adapt.

  • Which fantasy game do you prefer Warnie, AFL Fantasy, Real DT or Super Coach?

    • Chk, Chk… loaded question! ;)

      Without sounding obvious, it is AFL Fantasy for the… well, obvious reasons that I am having to devote most of my time due to selling out, I mean working for the AFL.

      But in all seriousness, I am enjoying the game as it is. That is the game, not all of the issue with the functionality, etc. Before FanHub were involved, I was keen on the 44 trades; it just wasn’t executed correctly last year (politics, but the decision to go to 44 trades was after the prices were released. I think we would have seen a higher magic number knowing that rule change – it’s what made the game too vanilla last season.

      30 trades v 44 – there’s not much difference. If I had the choice, I would take the 44. If you want a challenge, 30 is probably too many… they should have went back to 20 if they wanted to be old school.

      As I said in previous comment, I enjoy knowing I have two trades to use each week and I enjoy the new strategy that is involved in the new look AFL game thanks to pricing, etc.

      I’m playing all three… I’ll always take Fantasy/DT scoring over SC without a doubt.. and I like a new/different game after 10+ years playing the same format.

      You’ll be quick to tell me that of course I was going to say all of that, I’m a sell out, etc… whatever, but the gameplay is an improvement on last year IMO and I am enjoying the game. Let’s just hope they can get it all functioning properly.

      • I wouldn’t be quick to tell you anything mate, you and the fellas here do a great job. Cheers for your reply.

        • Thanks – you should get back on board AFL Fantasy next year. Think it’s a refreshing format of the game.

          • Sorry to cut in lads, while I agree fantasy needed a shakeup as teams were starting to become much more similar from start to finish I am not sure AF has got it quite right.

            Good –
            Two trades a round – handy, as it seems as if injuries are constantly on the rise.
            Price rise after one game – Agree with Warnie (great idea), maybe a little too much for rooks after one game.
            Customisable league size (pay only option i think) – especially as a lot of people jumped off the AF after last season.

            Bad –
            Site and App are terrible – drop outs happen far too often.
            Trading – Searching for a player is a pain, when I type in a player they never show up. Or the annoying trading menu pops up, OR I receive a message telling me the trade is locked out for no reason and need to refresh to complete.
            Analyser – not really sure what I get out of this after 4 rounds, some things are still closed off. Don’t even get the scoring worm!!

            I could go on. I understand it is a new format for the AFL and has undergone considerable change. You have to take the good with the bad (although it feels bad outweighs good) and one assumes there will be more changes over the coming years.

            I will continue to play it as I love fantasy games! One last thought, people who pay for subscription should receive a signed poster of Warnie, Calvin and Roy?? Who wouldn’t want a poster of the lads around the house scaring the children?

          • Good points, legeneral.

            The site and app weren’t (and still probably aren’t) up to scratch at launch. They are working hard to making it happen. Now I’m not in the boardroom making any decisions, but I would have gone away from the whole paid subscription this year for a bit of goodwill. I guess they didn’t forsee the issues with the site, but it might have been good for their first year to have it opened all up for all and to continually add to it for free. Would have countered some of the bad feeling.

            While it is still all workable, just, this season… I think things will be a lot better in 2015.

            The subscriptions would need to go up about $50 each if they were to include signed posters… not for me or Calvin, but for Hollywood Roy.

  • Well said warnie I must admit that I was against the free hit after round 1 and the two trades a week but afl fantasy has grown on me and I really am loving it. We now have tottally different fantasy games to play in rdt and classic this is a good thing I reckon

    • I didn’t like the idea of the free hit, but at the end of the day, the reason for it was due to the split round and the casuals… they’re the rules, we just have to stick with it. I’m not seeing that teams are too similar (RDT they are much more similar than in AF looking across my leagues).

      Who knows what the first week or two of Fantasy will look like next year with the Cricket World Cup on. That will be interesting and makes things a challenge for all stakeholders.

  • Where can you find Fantasy breakevens???

  • Shiels out for a month

    • Yep, there goes my “No injuries so everything is finally looking up” stance. God this year has been merciless. Knowing my luck McEvoy and Wingard will miss again and I’ll struggle to 1800-1950 like the other competition rounds. Oh well, at least I get back Rockliff… Damn free hit, I’m spending all my trades bringing back players I started with pre-round one.

      • I think it’s the free hit that’s affected me also. I’ve become a bit blasé about fantasy having 2 trades to fix anything has made me lazy and I’ve ended up with a team I don’t even like by taking unwarranted risks ie Scooter R2 captain. I’ve never had him in a team before never mind captaining him. My team looks nothing like the one I had planned in my head.

  • Sorry again for a million questions but my team shows I had a round ranking of 5 last week, yet when I went to rankings and round 4 rankings, it had my team at 2nd for the week and now is not showing up at all when I go to the round rankings… Is this a glitch with the site? Anybody else experiencing this sort of thing??

  • I’ve signed up just to get this up here but warnie can you please remove griff from the twitter feed on the main site? it’s usually just a good way to check whats happening with players or general dt issues but every day, especially the weekends when we are looking for up to date info, griff punishes it with tepid jokes or endless gws comments (and I support them!). yourself, roy, freako, jeppa, dunny and calvin all offer something but are snowed under by endless rubbish from griff. This is the weakest article on the site but i’m fine for him to have this forum as long as its not impacting the whole site. the very sight of one more of his unfunny joke tweets just makes me grind my teeth!

  • Warnie, I am playing AFL Fantasy under Courtesans. Play all three and another. Addicts like me can’t help it..