The Fantasy Analyzer – Dane Swan Dilemma

Brings you the Dane Swan Dilemma

SwanThe Great Dane has been the unchallenged immortal fantasy god for years now. Week in, week out he has shuffled around the ground picking up disposals, marks and goals in trademark ‘when I’m bothered’ fashion. He’s produced a seasonal average of beyond 133. Yes, that’s right, Swanny averaged over 133 fantasy points a game during the 2012 season. But why has Swan’s scoring been down so much over the first two weeks and what should we do about it? One of the biggest early season fantasy questions we’ve had in recent seasons, certainly worthy of some in-depth fantasy analysis!

Round 1 v Fremantle

(TOG: 85%)

Swan Round 1A score of 97 wasn’t a fantastic effort by any means. In the previous 5 meetings against Fremantle, Swan had scored 111, 172, 125, 131, 158 for an average of 139.4. He was heavily picked as a captaincy option and had ownership numbers of 47,422 for AFL Fantasy (around 25%) and 8,227 for Real DreamTeam (also around 25%). In terms of quarter by quarter scores, he produced 30, 25, 21 and 21. In the third quarter he seemed to have pulled his groin, which may have led to a slightly lower second half total. He also played too much time forward, which made it very difficult considering the lack of time the ball spent in Collingwood’s attacking 50. Overall I wasn’t too displeased with Dane’s game, but the time spent forward was worrying.

Predicted Score: 125+

Actual Score: 97

Round 2 v Sydney

(TOG: 83%)

Swan Round 2This was a disastrous night for Swan, visiting the slippery ANZ Stadium and providing his coaches a score of 68, 49 points below what had been paid for. Now looking at his previous scores against the Swans he had produced 94, 85, 106, 125 and 110 in his last 5 for an average of 104. The expectations were low on him heading into this game as a result, and a score of 90-110 would’ve met expectations. The forward time was again a primary issue, even in a game where the Collingwood forwards had far greater opportunity than they did the previous week.

Predicted Score: 90-110

Actual Score: 68

Scoring Potential

This is now the key question. What do we expect him to be scoring for the next 20 Home & Away football matches? I think his scoring is completely determined by role. He’s a fantasy beast who when given time in the middle will produce. That’s the bottom line, Swan in the midfield equals points. @FantasyFreako was kind enough to send me through this information…

 

 

This is proof of what the eye had suspected. Swan’s forward time has doubled. Historically excessive forward time does drop averages. It’s fact. The only time when this doesn’t effect scores is when you have a consistently dominant team around you, although even in this instance over the course of the season you’ll generally have a lower output. The simple thinking process is that the ball is always in the midfield, there is never a guarantee that the ball will go into the forward line. Thus midfielders have more opportunity to score points.

Buckley spoke on The Couch on Monday night and had this to say on the Brownlow medallist;

“Swan is one of the proudest footballers you’ll ever meet. Whilst it’s well documented his training standards aren’t elite, his consistency of performance is. That was a poor game by Swan. His work rate wasn’t high enough.”

Mike Sheahen replied; “You’ve got a premier midfielder who’s playing forward?”

“Yeah, we’ve got Pendleburry and Beams who are our in form midfielders and we’re playing Macaffer as a tagger. We’ve sat our guys who’d prefer to be 100% midfielders forward, but the fact is the games gone beyond that.”

 

These quotes speak volume. No longer does Buckley eye his tattooed ball magnet as an out and out midfielder, and more to the point he doesn’t believe he demands the first crack at it in the middle. I also have the feeling that Buckley really despises the way Swan trains as he was the polar opposite as a trainer. Given Bucks has a young side and wants to build from the ground up, the thinking may be that he wants to show the youngsters that you’re rewarded for working hard session to session and can’t just get by with the bare minimum.

WARNING- Buckley is attempting to take over Ross Lyon as Fantasy Kryptonite Captain!

 

AFL Fantasy Verdict

(Break Even: 153)

For the 2 trades a week game, he must go. Even if he whacks out a 120, he’s still set to plummet with a breakeven of 153. There are a few options to trade to and there’s no right or wrong answer. The most blatant move is to trade to a like for like replacement scoring wise, like Pendlebury or Johnson. You could go down to a Josh Kelly or James Aish and spend the other trade to upgrade a rookie like a Michie or Patton, who don’t appear to have too much value left in them. Keep in mind that if this role continues he’s likely to be reclassified by FanHub as a midfield/forward later in the season, which would easily make him a top 6 player in that position. Personally I’ll be looking forward to a further 50-80k drop before bringing him back in. Consider your options wisely, but see you later Dane.

Hold or Trade Swan (AFL Fantasy)?

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Real DreamTeam Verdict

(Break Even:224)

This decision is a little less obvious in the restricted trades format, although most fantasy coaches are still strong on trading him. Ultimately a high percentage of owners will move him on for a Scott Pendlebury or a Steve Johnson. Now if Swan can average 115 from here on in, it’s undoubted that the best decision will be to hold him. We don’t want to sideways trade this early in the season. I realize he’ll drop in value, but this is offset by the fact that he’s a keeper and a drop in cash is better to stand than the loss of a trade, which may not gain you any points. In saying all this I suspect the comments that I’ve provided from Buckley and Fantasy Freako have to come into calculations when deciding where we expect Swan’s output to be and thus he’s likely to find his way out of sides very quickly.

Hold or Trade Swan (Real DT)?

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So what do you guys think? Remember to give me a follow on twitter @B_Gogos! Good luck with all your fantasy sides this weekend!

31 Comments

  • Fantastic article mate, well done!!

  • how long has he remaining on his current contract, possible for him to request trade at the end this season? hawthorn with plenty of salary cap space and are renowned for recruiting established star’s (gibson, burgoyne, lake, mcevoy)

    heard it here first hahaha

  • I knew Swan would be on the decline this year, but I was hoping it wouldn’t be so sudden and dramatic. That way it would’ve taken people longer to realise that Pendlebury is the new king. As it stands now, pretty much everyone is jumping off Swan after 2 weeks.

    I was hoping for a little longer, but starting Pendles over Swan (and captaining him last week) has still given me a nice early advantage, as planned.

    That said, I just talked my brother into getting Swan on footytips because he’s so cheap. So here’s hoping he can bounce back a little.

  • Good job Benny!

  • “Keep in mind that if this role continues he’s likely to be reclassified by FanHub as a midfield/forward later in the season”

    Say what?…

    Either you’re very confused or I’ve missed some massive news.

    • You’ve missed some massive news mate… FanHub are going to reclassify players positions (or add to rather) throughout the season

  • Funnily enough I’m holding in AFLFAN and trading in DT (missed the Dom Tyson train so will be boarding that this week). Swan -> Tyson, McDonough -> N-Roo. Bang.

  • Can anyone PLEASE TELL ME how (in AFL Fantasy) I can swap Tom Langdon from my Defence bench to my Mids bench, allowing me to trade out Michie for Jaensch?? I’ve asked this in a number of forums but have received only silence.

    • Warnie April 3, 2014 12:23 pm

      From FanHub… not ideal, but it works:

      We are sorry you have had some issues trying to figure out our new dual position trading experience. We realise it is not perfect and are going to be improving this over the coming weeks, so please bare with us.

      In the meantime, the best way to complete a dual position trade is by doing the following:
      1) Go to the trades tab.
      2) On the left hand side select the player that you which to change their position in your team
      3) On the right hand side select the player you wish to trade in to your team
      4) A pop up will come onto your screen – please select the player you wish to trade out of your team
      5) Double check the trade has been completed as you desire

      Good luck with your trading and hopefully it holds you in good stead for the rest of the season!

      Thanks via Warnie in another thread. Its totally backwards.

      • “new dual position trading experience” lol

      • Thanks for the answer, Shags. Unfortunately it doesn’t work. The problems started with FanHub’s step 3. In trying to execute the trade I outlined above I could not select Jaensch until I changed the position to Defender, then I could find Jaensch. Step 4 never happened – no pop up. But, having selected the in and out players, I pressed the Complete Trade button – then I did get a pop up. It said that the incoming player could not play in that position. I pressed OK (no other option available) and the trade was cancelled.

        I guess FanHub’s directions are on a par with their English. I’m pretty sure (and hope) they didn’t want you to bare with them but to bear with them.

        • Henry, I had the same frustration trying to do the old DPP trade switch. Here’s how you’d do it for your scenario: Warning it defies logic!
          You trade Tom Langdon for Jaensch- click “make trade”- you will then get a pop up giving you the option to trade Langdon for Jaensch or swap Langdon with Michie or any other Mid- click on Michie and it will swap Langon into the mids and you’ve accomplished in a few minutes what took seconds before Fanhub intervened!
          Hope it works for you.

          • Rusty, I’ll be buttered on both sides!!!!! It worked! Thankyou very much and congratulations on knowing more about FanHub’s Fantasy Football than FanHub does.

  • Henry!!! or you can do it the app I believe

    • Thanks Jordy. I’m not an app or iphone man. My familiarity with technological innovation doesn’t extend beyond the aluminium beer can.

  • RDT = Trade. Fantasy = Trade.

    But what do i do in my UF Draft League? Took him at pick 2 (who wouldnt with GAJ gone?) and now am missing the points and have no walk up captain.

  • Great article Ben! Real dt im holding him, although il see what happens 5 mins before lockout haha. Didnt like his form in round one for fantasy so luckily swapped him for pendles before round 2.

  • Henry,
    I had the same frustration trying to do the old DPP trade switch. Here’s how you’d do it for your scenario: Warning it defies logic!
    You trade Tom Langdon for Jaensch- click “make trade”- you will then get a pop up giving you the option to trade Langdon for Jaensch or swap Langdon with Michie or any other Mid- click on Michie and it will swap Langon into the mids and you’ve accomplished in a few minutes what took seconds before Fanhub intervened!
    Hope it works for you.

  • The PIG will fly again. After so many years of uber premo performances, I wouldn’t jump off too quick! :)

  • People are dropping off swan like no tomorrow. Just completed a draft league and he went in the 2nd round at pick 14! Crazy

  • hey mate, where r u getting the b/e of 224 from? i’ve got the assistant coach in real dt and it’s saying his b/e is 187

  • I have Swan in the AFL Fantasy Elite mode. Picked him in the first round with my first pick hoping he’d live up to the usual amazing standards. Now i’m wondering if i ditch the Pig while hes still got some value or hold him hoping some how he will start getting his usual scores. Just wondering for some opinions as his trade value is going down hill and i want to make a move fast!