NBL Dream Team: Round 13 Preview

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After a round where many people were thoroughly let down by their captain choice it will be a pleasant relief to hand James Ennis the responsibility for a round 13 double dose of Perth versus Townsville.

 

Big Scorers

Chris GouldingMelbourne again produced four of the top five scorers, led by Chris Goulding who shot his way to a round high of 74. Lucas Walker (68), Adam Ballinger (58) and Mark Worthington (56) were the other top scorers but it didn’t stop there as they were further supported by Nate Tomlinson (50) and Mustapha Farrakhan (44).

Cairns had four good scorers with Matt Burston stepping up in the absence of Tragardh to lead with 56. Jamar Wilson (54), Cameron Gliddon (50) and Demetri McCamey (46) also contributed nicely.

Daniel Johnson was the star of the week to my mind scoring 64 from his single match. Thomas Abercrombie bounced back with a 52, whilst Rotnei Clarke backed up his previous high round with a solid 50.

 

Disappointments

The captain choices of Alex Loughton and Scott Morrison were the biggest disappointments this week. They scored 24 and 28 respectively, after both started in a mediocre fashion then had shocking games marred by foul trouble on the Sunday.

After recommending them as potential trade targets Brian Conklin (6) and Peter Crawford (8) both struggled against a dominant Tigers team. A dominant Adelaide meant Mika Vukona had his first quiet game for quite a while and got 10.

Ben Madgen continued under-performing with 2 and I hope you traded out Brad Hill (-2) like I recommended as he dropped almost $10K off his value. Darryl Corletto gets the award for worst score this round as he failed to hit a shot and registered an impressively low -8.

 

Double Match Trade Targets

Perth and Townsville have the double matches this round which will be interesting as they are playing a home-home series. This actually advantages the Wildcats as the first match is in Perth before both teams have to fly to Townsville for the rematch on Sunday.

 

Perth Trade Targets

Grab: James Ennis is a must have and if you don’t have him then sacrifice someone to get him in. Damian Martin has been having an exceptional season and I expected further solid scores this round.

Maybe: Matthew Knight had been playing great since his return, up until the point where he got injured and then missed last round. Despite his expected return I’d be hesitant to pay his price as Perth will be very careful with him as they need him come season end (they’ve lost both games while he’s been out). Shaun Redhage has lost a lot of value so is a good price if you think he can start scoring again. Jermaine Beal has occasional great scores interspersed with multiple average scores. Jesse Wagstaff and Greg Hire both excelled while Knight was missing but it’s likely they’ll be quieter again with him back.

Pass: Tom Jervis has been quiet for ages now and isn’t seeing much court. Even though Drake U’u and Erik Burdon are getting on court nearly every game they are not good dream team choices despite their super cheap price.

 

Townsville Trade Targets

Grab: Todd Blanchfield has regularly been Townsville’s best contributor but is likely to have it extra hard this weekend. He should still get a good score given that he has a great all-round game. Brian Conklin is a player who has good games and bad games but his price and his scoring potential make him a worthwhile grab.

Maybe: Josh Pace is expensive and has been injured but if he’s back then you would expect him to score. I’d advise against bringing him in but hold him if you’ve got him, even if he misses, as Townsville has plenty of doubles to come and his value to them cannot be understated. Jacob Holmes continues to be a solid contributor and is a good price. Steven Markovic can go very big but is a touch pricey for my liking at the moment, particularly given they are playing against Perth. Russell Hinder could be a good option given his price. Peter Crawford is still finding his rhythm after his injury but could score big if given the chance. Greg Vandergadt is cheap but is unlikely to make a big impact against Perth’s mobile bigs.

Pass: Mitch Norton had a good run when he was getting extra court time but is going down in price and wont get you many points. Mirko Djeric just had a 12 and it could be the start of a scoring run but it’s unlikely. Scott Kenny doesn’t get enough court time and is used as fill in shooter.

 

Other Trade Targets

The number one trade target, who you should absolutely be trading in this week or next week, is Cody Ellis. Incredibly cheap, Ellis was given substantial court time in his first game and delivered with a solid score of 24. He’ll be getting ample opportunity so grab him . This is the perfect opportunity to trade out someone like Steindl, Young or Anthony and make some money in the process.

Matt Burston took advantage of the extra time afforded through Tragardh’s  absence so he looks like jumping in value and should get decent scores along the way. Mitch Creek had a big game on the weekend and has already gone up significantly in value once earlier this season (before coming back down) so could be a good grab too.

 

Trade Them Out

If you were one of the 588 people who chose to hold Cameron Tragardh that’s unfortunate but now you absolutely need to trade him out. He’s been ruled out for the rest of the month and you just can’t afford to have a player of his value getting donuts for the next four weeks.

Prior to this round Scott Morrison had been an excellent pick up but with the Tigers run of double matches nearing its end and with a number of other really good centre options currently available its a good time to trade him out. He’ll also be losing money for the next two rounds after his last shocking score.

 

Captain Choice

James Ennis is the clear choice here and given that he’s owned by over 63% of coaches then I’m guessing that there’ll be more teams with him as captain than not. Unfortunately though, this is not the time to gamble on a captain of difference. Baring a shock he will be the highest scorer (or close enough) this round. His consistency this season has been unmatched.

If you don’t have Ennis, then Damian Martin is the next best choice and the player most likely to outscore Ennis if you feel like gambling. Other options could be Blanchfield, Redhage, Conklin or Beal (in order of my preference) or if they’re fit and ready to play then Pace or Knight would also go good contributors but I’d be sceptical of those two.

 

Other Thoughts

  • I’ll be trading someone out for Ellis this week and then using the money to bring in Ogilvy.
  • Despite having Morrison as my captain, I did get lucky last week when I traded out Tragardh in that chose not to bring in Loughton and instead brought in Blanchfield.
  • I really hope Josh Pace plays this week, his donuts are really expensive, but I’ll be holding him regardless as Townsville has some important double match rounds later in the year.
  • Its now officially past the halfway point of the season and in an ideal world I’d have 15+ trades left. Instead I have 12, two of which I’ll be using this week, meaning that as injuries increase later in the season I’m going to need some luck.

 

Best of luck all.

Tristan

Coach of the Statismathgicians

8 Comments

  • Thanks Tristan, down to ten trades after this week as well. Ogilvy will come in next week. Redhage and Ellis in for Tomlinson and Young, and hoping Pace is right to go.

    F: Worthington, Redhage (Loughton, Ellis)
    C: D. Johnson (Garlepp)
    G: Ennis (c), Pace (Abercrombie, Farrakhan)

    • Personally I would trade in Blanchfield or Conklin rather than Redhage but otherwise you’re looking good.

  • Any thoughts on What to do Tristan?
    My team is
    F: Ennis Worthington (Young Ellis)
    C: Loughton (Schenscher)
    G: Goulding Pace (Gliddon Demos)

    I have used 1 trade Tragardh -> Ellis
    I have 1 trade left for the round and 16 for the season
    $113,700 in the bank any Thoughts
    Thinking Loughton-> Ogilvy which will leave me 53K?

    Please Help?

    • Maybe consider holding Loughton for a few more weeks given that Cairns still has a few more double match rounds. You’d hope that he should be able to bounce back and regain some value.
      Worthington is the only other player you’d consider trading out for Ogilvy though (by moving Loughton to the Fwd spot).
      Or you could hold the trade one more week, get a little bit more money from Schenscher and then upgrade him (although you’d want a Fwd/Ctr link to switch with Loughton then). No easy answer, but you’ve done really well to still have a good number of trades.

      • Hmm I was thinking maybe trading Loughton-> Ogilvy this week leaving me 53K.
        Then Loughton will more than likely drop in value and Schenscher will go up so then I could go Schenscher-> Loughton
        Is that wasting trade or is it a way to gain $$$$?

        Thoughts?

        • Also don’t really want to Trade Wortho as Melbourne have the double in round 15 Could get rid of him after that?
          Hmm interesting at the pointy end of the season

        • You probably want to organise it so that you can get Loughton in as a Fwd if you can since it’s a bit wasteful to trade him back in only to sit on your bench in round 14 when he has the same double as Ogilvy.
          That said, you can afford to make a small number of short term trades, if you think they’ll give you a good points/cash boost, since you’ve saved them so well.