The Friday Scramble: Round 23 – Grand Final

FridayScramble“They said you’d never make it….”  Anyway, as the song goes on to say… You did make it, you got there, you have made it all the way to the Grand Final.  Of course there is only a couple of us that have got this far in our leagues.  Congratulations on getting to the GF, now comes the tricky bit!  Winning it!  Whether it be for some sort of side bet with your mates or quite simply for pride, we all want to win it to get the bragging rights over our mates for the summer months.  For me… well it is about getting the winners trophy on my desk at work for the next 12 months.  But if you are out of the finals, firstly well done for sticking with your team and guiding it through to the end.  You may find your rank will go up a fair bit with those teams that are already bundled out of the finals falling by the wayside.

It is nice this year to head into the last game of the season with two trades sitting there ready to use!  I can’t remember the last time that this has happened for my team.  So the key here is to use those trades wisely.  Hopefully you have a bit of cash in the bank that you can use too to try and bolster your team heading into this weeks big dance.

Trading Strategy

I think over the past few weeks I have written a fair bit about trading strategy and you should be all over it by now, however, here is a bit of a recap just to remember what we have already spoken about.

Injury or Selection – Well this is simply obvious, you aren’t going to win a GF with only 21 players counting.  So before any luxury or risky trades you need to make sure you are fielding a full side!

Defence! – Here you would look at your opponent’s team and see where your team is at a disadvantage and where you may be able to trade out one of your players and then bring in a key guy that your opponent has.  So this week if you don’t have someone like Joel Selwood and they do, you would be looking to trade out someone that you don’t have the utmost faith in and bring in Selwood to ensure that it is a nil all draw in that circumstance.

All Out Attack – In this case you think you are evenly matched in all of the big guns then you may want to go all out attack and bring in two guys that are going to give you the edge.  They would be guys that your opponent doesn’t have and you think that they will be just the uniques that you need to bring your the win.  This might include guys like Pavlich, Bob Murphy or Harry Taylor.

#Yolo Trading – Sorry Calvin I know you aren’t a YOLO fan, but these are where you are the complete underdog and you are going to go for someone that might score you a 40 or they might just get you a 140 at a low price.  Let’s have a look at last week.  Matt Rosa is a guy that you ordinarily wouldn’t look at, his average of 69.4 screams don’t touch me!  But he came out and scored a 131 in a huge loss to Collingwood.  His previous best was an 84 in R15 against Adelaide (He plays them at home this week).  There are these guys that you think are due for a breakout game that can really surprise. you.  The best exponent of this theory though is Paul Seedsman.  He had a 121 last week with an average of 79.   In the R14 loss to Port he had a 148 but in R16 v Adelaide he only managed 54.  So he is a massive risk but can bring you a massive score for the price of $394k

Who to play on the field?

Once again this is all about your matchup.  Check out your opponents team and try to predict what you think they will do.  But when you are selecting your guys to play on  the field and those that you will put in the green vest (your emergencies) really look at who the guys are playing and the role they will play in that game and also how they have gone against that team in the past.  You won’t get all these decisions right, we never do, but it will help you sleep at night after lockout to know that you have done all the research you can.  Don’t just check out who scored the most last week and play them, that isn’t always going to repeat itself.  You need to check out more than just last week.

Gary Ablett

Wow, never thought I would be discussing this in this article…. ever!  One question I have actually been asked a fair bit this week is… should I be trading or benching Gary Ablett this week.  Now I will give you the fact that he has been terrible over the last three weeks.  But seriously it is Gary Ablett here people!  His average has plummeted from 123 after round 18 down to 113.  Since his 114 in round 18 he has scored 89, 64, 82 and 71.  However, do you want to risk not having him?
Will Gaz bounce back?  Well earlier in the season at Manuka he had 131 on GWS, and we all know how much he loves Metricon where he averages 114.  Personally I will be playing him!

Freo.. Oh No!

Well our old buddy Ross Lyon has done it to us again!  We should have been suspicious on Wednesday night when we heard that betting on the Saints v Freo game was suspended.  So what happened?  Of course he left out Mundy and Fyfe.  Many of the teams out there will have at least one of these guys.  And also a lot of teams may have Zac Clarke in them too who has also been left at home.

 #AskDunny

Scramble30Aug#1

Interesting one this one.  Griffen scored 136 against Melbourne in round 14.  He didn’t get tagged in that game and Boyd scored 90 in that game.  Playing at Etihad will certainly help him too.  There is a risk of him being tagged.  I still think he will go big given they will have Boyd and Cooney to contend with. If you were really concerned I don’t have a problem with Sidebottom or Libba.  Sidebottom is averaging 110 in his last 7 games and scored 106 vs North in Round 1.  Libba hasn’t had a great run over the last 3 weeks.  However when he played Melb earlier in the year he scored a 144!  So really, any of these three guys would be a good bet.  If you don’t have any issues to deal with and are really worried about the tag then I would probably go Libba.

Scramble30Aug#2

My first concern here is that Wingard did pull up sore against Freo and was subbed out in the 3rd quarter as a precaution.  The second thing that worries me here are the tags that Carlton like to use.  They must win this one to keep their game alive so Boak and Wingard will be heavily targetted by Curnow and the guy with a bad Mo Armfield.  These two guys have done well tagging lately and I think that those two guys will be the first two tagged by Carlton.  Last week we saw Boak get the Crowley tag and he scored a poor 66.  Against Carlton earlier in the year he had 74 which doesn’t inspire confidence, however, his average at AAMI this year is 108.8 so there is some merit in playing him.  I think that if you have him you will probably have some bigger concerns in your lineup so keeping him would be a good idea. I am not sure that I would be bringing him in though, I think you will probably have better options out there.

Scramble30Aug#3

Big Roo has been fantastic this season, averaging 102.3 this is his second year where he could finish with an average over 100 (2009 was his only other year where he averaged 106.5).  Nick didn’t play against Freo earlier in the year as he had a bout of General Soreness and it was always planned that he wouldn’t fly to Perth.  His last three against the Dockers have yielded 91, 65 and 75.  Certainly not very impressive numbers, but he has done well against some of the better sides in the comp even when his team is getting flogged.  He had 153 v Sydney, 117 v Collingwood and 123 v Carlton earlier this year so he remains a good chance to score well.  The other factor here is the Freo side that have their spot in the top 4 wrapped up and General Soreness has paid them a visit with their regular fullback Dawson is one that is out.  I think that Riewoldt will have a good game and I will be surprised if he scores under 90 (something he has only done on 6 occasions this year)

Scramble30Aug#4

Short answer for this one.  I think that Cotch and K Jack are a little more risky than Beams.  I think that I also like Griffen slightly more than those two guys.  Cotch’s red vest last week does still worry me as I am concerned that he has a niggle of some description.  I did read today that Beamer could have played last week but he didn’t as a precaution so I think that he should be a fairly safe bet for this week’s game.

Scramble30Aug#5

JPK does seem to like playing the good teams as you said.  He had 121 against the Hawks at the G earlier in the year and 135 against Freo.  However, he didn’t have that many huge games, those two plus his 126 vs St Kilda a couple of weeks ago are his only scores over 120.  His average is only 90 and he will be good for a score of about that in my opinion.  He averages 86 at ANZ Stadium and has scored 121, 147 and 113 against the Hawks in his last 3.  Given a chance I would take JPK this week.

Scramble30Aug#6

Firstly I am sure that Chopper is pleased to see that he has a groupie out there!  Wow there is quite a few choices you have.  Stevie J, Rocky, Boydy, Watson or Scooter would be the ones that I would consider.  Really, this gives you the chance to either be attacking as Roy suggested on the show last night or you could play defensive and trade to take out a point of difference that your opponent has.  To be honest, just get a guy that you are comfortable with that has the best average and has a good record against their opponent.

 

Things To Remember

  • There is no Second Prize! – No one remembers who comes second.
  • Back your Guns! – These guys aren’t called guns for nothing, trust them just like you have every other week.
  • Don’t over think it – The more that you think about it the worse the decisions will make.  You got yourself to the GF…. you must know something!
  • Keep Calm and Lock Swan – The pig has been on fire lately and is playing at the sty…. what more do you need to know?

Dunny’s Destroyers find themselves in 3 GF’s this week.  One of them being the DTTalk SA State of Origin league!  Last week we had a respectable 2,346 and my ranking lifted up to 1,777 (surely a lucky ranking!).  Hopefully I can get myself one or two premierships out of those leagues and finish with a nice ranking.

Good luck to all of you I hope you all have a great game and bring home your premiership (Unless you are the coaches of Tonto Apache, Peto’s Rare Breed and Cows with Guns whom I am trying to beat).  And if you aren’t in the GF, stick in there for one more week and try and finish with a nice ranking.

Thanks to everyone for reading each week, I have had a great time writing for you and I hope that I have been able to give you some good advice throughout the year.  I will continue to tweet out over the finals for those that are playing the Match Day game so give me a follow on @pkd73.  Otherwise I look forward to having you back for the Scramble next year and also some Pre-Season advice.

 

65 Comments

  • Great work Dunny and good luck in your finals.
    I have the Jack / Cotchin question to deal with regarding which one i should bench – any ideas?

    • I think I bench Cotchin here. Tough call though, I don’t expect either to be big scorers, but that vest still worries me from last week.

  • Thanks for the great articles this year Dunny. I was in the unusual position of having a spare trade this week so I upgraded Gorringe to Goldstein. Now have three premium rucks which appears to be a bit of a waste.

  • Thanks for your hardwork this year Dunny, Up the Power!! lol

    I had locked Stokesy to come into my FWD line this week, but after seeing Freo’s team they are sending over to Etihad, i cant see Reiwoldt getting held by anyone.

    I reckon he will push up the ground take like 10-12 marks kick a couple snags and score 105ish.

    As for abit of a Yolo trade, Houli will be coming into my backline, plays a depleted bombers side and should be good for a 90+.

  • thanks for everything this year Dunny.

  • Great stuff Dunny, thanks for the stuff.

    One last query, out of the following defenders how would you order them?

    HarryO, Scotland, Hanley, Eski, Shaw

  • Trade Malceski-H.Shaw?T.McKenzie(Gws)
    Or
    Trade Cotchin-Masten,JPK,Dangerfield

    • I was looking at similar thinks except with Stanton- Masten should ton up easily.

      As with Eski and Shaw they are both so up and down, but I think Shaw has more upside. McKenzie not to keen on

      • Malceski vs hawthorn and was tagged last time and hawks will obviously look to do it again. Heath Shaw just seems like a bit more of a safer bet, McKenzie vs gws could smash them his a type of player that could. and had about 113 on them last time. Unless there is any other options under 344k?

        • Looking back on it I think McKenzie has the biggest upside- he may score 10 less then Shaw but also 20+ more is just as likely

          • Mckenzie it is then? Just doesn’t seem like to much of a risk as they play gws and should still be good for a 75 atleast which i can’t complain about

          • McKenzie I would go as well

        • do you mind having a look at my post above, no idea what to do

  • Trading out Fyfe
    Got enough $ for any player preferably a mid like Swan or J.Selwood/any others?

  • Thanks for all your advice during the year Dunny it’s been invaluable. In 4/4 grand finals so got to be happy with that result. Scored 2343 last week which could have been so much better – Lynch late withdrawal & got stakers 49 as emg. Stanton, Barlow & Griffen let me down and Suban’s injured 16 didnt help so was pleased with my score.

    Traded Lynch > Nvolt and Stanton > Mitch Duncan. Yes Mitch Duncan – other than his injured 1 a few weeks back he has averaged 110 the last 6 weeks. Get on him for a POD. Looked at my opposition and I am confident of winning at least 3 of my grand finals and a very tough battle for the 4th – hence Duncan as a POD.

    • Haha I’m onto Duncs as well mate, good to see I’m not the only one!

      • He has the runs on the board and playing Brisbane at home I was thinking at least 110 and wouldn’t surprise me if he got well above than number.

        Was pissed about Lynch last week – Adelaide must have known he wouldnt play and I had brought him in – wasted a trade. I shoud have got Nvolt straight up …. my bad. And then bloody Lewis Johnston scored 107 playing in his position.

  • Cheers Dunny!!! Always a great read prior to week-end glory or meltdown/FMDT!

    Luckily landed into 2/5 GF’s and playing 2 opponents with teams in much better form than myself but very little cash to spare… Can’t afford Jelwood/Libba/Watson/Griffen n co. My oppononets both have Jelwood & Griffen vs my Cothin & K.Jack.

    Given I’m carrying Brock Mclean (freaking YOLO gone horribly wrong >. M.Duncan and JJK > Stokes. Both vs the Lions at Simmonds should be good, Duncan has been in great YOLO form recently bar a injury affected 1. Thoughts?

    • *** Given I’m carrying Brock Mclean (freaking YOLO gone horribly wrong) I’m considering going Mclean > M.Duncan and JJK > Stokes ***

      • Yep cant go wrong with both those trades. Sorry cant stand McLean so he would never be in my side :)

        • Yea not my best trade… he was in ripping form and with Judd out and Kruez expected to play last week he was likely to smash it – even his 23 pts came from like 5mins game time so he was on track to go big >.<"

      • Sounds good! Stokes has been in great form lately! Unsure about Duncan though, but it could be worth the risk. What about Libba?

        • If I go Libba I can’t get Stokes, can’t really see another FWD option for JJK around the 370k mark hence why Stokes & Duncan are the perfect fit if they do have a day out against the Lions.

          • They will have a BIG day out against the lions I’m thinkin they will both go way over hundred.

  • Still in 2 GFs. Can’t decide between Montagna and Libba! Would go monty due to past form and average, but worried about the Crowley tag. But hard to look past the fact that the dogs are versing melbourne and Libba went huge against them… Any ideas?

    • Firstly, great work Dunny. Have enjoyed your articles and appreciate the time you put in. Dylan, I have both of these in my team. Even though Joey’s been scoring better lately, I’m more confident re Libba this week. Don’t expect a huge difference b/w them though.

  • Mikey & I have a dark horse – Mitch Duncan – check out his recent form – ave of 110 the last 6 weeks if you discount his injured 1. Plays Brisbane at the cattery – will go big we thinkin aye Mikey :)))

  • Great read as usual Dunny,thanks for your help all season. Who to bench please out of ,Goddard Hibberd Gibbs Hanley Murphy Enright or Mckenzie.

    • Between Hanley & Gibbs – thinking Hanley because it’s at the cattery

      • PS: I benched Gibbs – I have Goddard, Enright, Pearce, Harry O, Ellis & McKenzie. It was between McKenzie & Gibbs and just trust McKenzie more because they play GWS.

      • I’d play Hanley as Geelong wont tag him…

    • How did McKenzie score vs GWS last time?

    • Same dilemma! though i have Terlich instead of Mckenzie… its out of Hibberd or Gibbs and i dont know who to pick!

  • Hi Dunny
    Thanks for the great write ups every week. It has helped the mug coach (me) heaps. Keep up good work!!

  • Thanks Dunny for all the articles this year and to all the DT Talk team.

    A couple of questions i am hoping you guys can give me some advice on:
    1) Trading Cotchin out but cant decide between Beams, Watson or Montagna
    2) A bit of a risk but could i play Crouch over K Jack?
    3) Is Kreuzer too risky to play? I can swing Cox into ruck and bring in Stokes in the fwds with my 2nd trade.

    Thanks guys and goodluck.

    • Some nice and tricky options you have there…
      1) Got a 3 sided coin? I’d lean more to Beams/Watson, but Monty could still crack a good ton against half a freo side.
      2) I don’t like Jack’s form at the moment, and I would be trading him if I didn’t have to cover an injury. Crouch in good form vs eagles that don’t tag (and they just suck atm) does seem a better option.
      3) I’d prefer Stokes over Kreuzer purely given even if Kreuz is good and hits the ton, his ceiling aint as high as Stokes.

      • Thanks for the response.

        Montagna is an option because it covers off my main opponent. He also has Griffen but I think he will get the McKenzie tag.

        We both have Jack so it seems risky to play Crouch but am leaning towards it. I could trade out Cotchin & Jack but then i would be playing Kreuzer or Kennedy (WCE).

  • Cheers for the friday morning reads Dunny. Makes the long wait on a friday before lockout a bit more bearable.

    Good luck in your GF’s

    • Hook do you have any suggestions of YOLO moves I could make to try and catch up my 850 point deficit to you?

      Good Luck mate I hope you pull through for the win

      • haha cheers mate

        Maybe captain buddy and hope for a 204pts repeat effort, could bring in Stanton and brian lake and hope for repeat 180’s boom 800pts.

        • I was looking to offload Stanton but I opted against it hoping he repeats his current form on the Tigers

  • Wonderful article on Friday mornings!! Thank you for all your effort and advice every Friday morning for the last 20 odd weeks!! :-)

    Just a concern this week thanks to Ross Lyon!! Have to trade out Fyfe….was initially planning to drop Cotchin and Gibbs, but can only drop one of them?

    Options:

    a) Out, Fyfe and Cotchin – In, Libba and Beams
    b) Out, Fyfe and Cotchin – In, Libba/Beams and Harry O’ (Goddard DPP)
    c) Out, Fyfe and Gibbs – In, Libba/Beams and Harry O’

    Leaning towards Option a), Any other suggestions?

  • Can you afford Watson & Beams?
    Libba could get 80 or 150, Watson should be a safer bet for a 100-120.
    Out of those 3 options, I’d prefer (a)

  • Scrambling for a defender under 415k (have Ellis) here, who do you think is my best bet? Ideas so far include Pearce, Murphy, Hibberd, Houli.

  • Hibberd scored well against Richmond last time. Mckenzie should go big against GWS. Stanley could also be a good pick this week. Murphy is the one I’d go for

    • Interesting. I’m trying to decide my D5 and D6 out of Hibberd, Hanley, and Gibbs. I’d love to hear anyone’s opinion on who I should bench at D7. Currently, my GF team after this week’s trades is:

      Pigs In Space
      B: Goddard, Hibberd, Enright, Gibbs, Ellis, Stanley (Hanley, Hartigan)
      M: Swan, Ablett, Pendlebury, J. Selwood, S. Selwood, Barlow, Beams, Griffen (K. Jack, Carter)
      R: Cox, Roughead (Grundy, Naismith)
      F: Riewoldt, Rockliff, Martin, Bartel, Cloke, Johnson (Franklin, X. Richards)

      Yes I know I should probably post this in the GF Teams thread. Sorry.

      Not sure about K. Jack at M9 either way, but hey, it’s only a game!

      Good luck everyone and thanks Dunny for a great series this year.

  • Thoughts please..

    Roughead -> Minson
    ROK -> Griffen
    Or
    ROK-> Griffen
    JJK -> Stokes

    • Option 2 except I wouldnt be bringing in Griffen. I would bring in Watson, S.Selwood or Masten over Griffen this week.

  • Move Roughead back JJK->Minson
    ROK->Griffen

  • Im in the grand final so im going all out for a win! Who should I put on the field Cotchin or Sam Mitchell? its a tough one

  • Any recommendations??

    Back: Goddard Gibbs McKenzie Enright Heppell Malceski (Clisby Wright)
    Mid: Ablett Swan Pendlebury Barlow Griffen Stanton Priddis Crouch (Mayes Hunter)
    Ruck: Goldstein Minson (Grundy Naismaith)
    Forward: Rockliff Johnson Bartel Martin Cloke JJK (Neade Lee)

    I was thinking of trading heppell to shaw or harbrow and upgrade stanton to liberatore… Im not 100% sure so if anyone could give me any tips or suggestions that would be great.
    Thanks

    And who is the best defender under 362k heath shaw, birchall, grimes, harbrow, taylor duffield, burgoyne, dixon???

  • My team:

    DEF: Goddard, O’Brien, Ellis, Gibbs, Duffield, McKenzie (J.Webster, N.Blee)

    MIDS: G.Ablett, D.Swan, Pendles, M.Barlow, T.Cotchin, N.Fyfe, K.Jack, D.Beams (T.Mitchell, M.Arnot)

    RUCKS: D.Cox, W.Minson (B.Grundy, D.Currie)

    FWDS: S.Johnson, J.Kennedy, J.Bartel, Martin, C.Mayne, Rockliff, (B.Staker, A.Oxley)

    $176,100 in the bank

    In 1 Grand Final this week, The team im versing is pretty similar to mine.

    Thinking of trading Fyfe to Joel Selwood..

    Thoughts on my second trade?? Could i trade one of K.Jack or T.Cotchin?? They have Trent Cotchin but not K.Jack. also has montagna.

    Could i trade in my defence? i think thats where we arent as similar, only 2 players in common. Their defence: Goddard, Hibberd, Malceski, Hanley, Gibbs, Shaw, Birchall and Oxley.

    Thoughts on my team overall and trades i could make??

  • Which player do i bench out of Buddy, Stokes and Bartel??

  • Anyone got news about Bartel or Enright being rested this week? I have both in my team but just traded enright in this week so can reverse it if need be.

    DT needs to finish one week earlier because there are to many players that get rested in the final round.