Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 19

tbetta_bullets

  • No More Mulligans

With the sun setting on the DT home-and-away season, there’s no room for the weaknesses that crept into our sides this week. It’s all do-or-die from now on – whether it be attempting to secure the double chance (more on this soon), or pure survival – the margin for error is closing. Round 19 functioned as a cautionary tale in some respects this week, but also gave us some much-needed data leading into DT Finals.

Here’s what I took out of AFL Fantasy this week:

Once again, M9 is the source of contention in many head-to-head match-ups. Where having Tom Mitchell at M9 last week meant missing out on his 112-point score, being able to sit his tagged ass on our benches was a stroke of luck. Then again, if you’re a Priddis owner, you’ve just shat the bed. A late withdrawal then Titch gets tagged –

Side note… WHAT THE HELL?! Someone at the Bulldogs is massively kidding themselves. What possesses you to send your best tagger (Picken) to an 8-gamer, while letting the side’s Captain – who’d probably collected 5 Brownlow votes over the previous two games alone – to run free, is beyond me. Then to stick by that tag, as Kieren Jack slowly bends your side over, for the entire game… Either Mr. Bulldog Match Committee Man has a Brownlow bet on Jack, or his opponent had Tom Mitchell as a unique fantasy starter. Otherwise, all kinds of stupid.

– for 58 points, and you probably think you’re won the reverse lotto.

It has proven though, as good as he is, Titch isn’t reliable enough at M8 (or even M9) over DT Finals. Being a rookie, he’s still a great chance to spend all game in a forward pocket, an outside chance at a red (or even green) vest, and he doesn’t have the experience to handle opposition attention like others might. Sliding a Priddis type to the starting bench position and cashing in on Titch is something I’ll be looking at over the next month of Finals footy… A famous breeding ground for high-profile late withdrawals.

R19 Steele BeamsIs 4 Pies in a single line overkill? This is the question many coaches are asking on the back of a renaissance from Steele Beams – clearly a cooler nickname than Kimye, Bennifer or Robsten. Probably a better love story too; since Beams returned to the side, the Steele Beams combo has averaged 233.5 per game! Add in Pendlebury and Swan in typically strong seasons – they’ve been going at a massive 473.8 points per game as a quarter since Beams’ return. So yeah… Nothing to worry about here, folks.

R19 Hot pies


Michael Voss is a nob (Part I).
As incredible as he was as a player, as a coach he’s the single red sock in a washing machine full of whites for our fantasy sides. Firstly – and I am far from forgiving him for this – he left Pat Karnezis out to dry. Patty’s awesome pre-season warranted more than a dumping after one sub-standard game (66 DT) in Round 1 and a green vest the following week, not that spiteful face-saving knee-jerking back-stabbing joke of a decision. Now Karnezis wants back to Victoria, and I don’t blame him. Odds on, he’ll be in my starting side next year if he’s granted his wish.

R19 Michael VossMichael Voss is a nob (Part II). Why on Earth he would play Tom Rockliff as a permanent forward these past two years when he had a career-best season in 2011 (earning 9 Brownlow votes in a crap side) is beyond me. I keep quoting this stat, because it defies common sense – Rocky averages 74 as a permanent forward this season, compared to the 108.8 DT he ticks over at as a midfielder. “But Vossy doesn’t care about DT, it’s all about the team” I hear you say? Well firstly, damn right he doesn’t care about DT (we’ve been over this!). Secondly, check out the SC splits – a respected measure of effectiveness and influence – 75.2 SC as a forward,  a whopping 118.8 SC as a midfielder.

Either way you slice it, Vossy is a dick and Rockliff is a gun.

What did you take out of Round 19’s happenings? Got a rocket for Vossy as well? Join the conversation by contributing a comment below!

 

  • Points of Difference/Despondence

Polling R19

3. K. Jack (140)

Jack has a sidestep that makes Lenny Hayes blush and a fervour that pleases Glenn Archer – but now he possesses the DT-game that many in the same mould before him failed to attain. I see a ridiculous correlation between himself and Joel Selwood – both are an in-and-under type, both debuted in 2007, both are young Captains of their clubs and both have younger siblings in the AFL system. Statistically they are peers as well – both average 25 touches per game over the last two years, with at least 5.6 tackles a game in those seasons. I have no doubt that both will continue to clear the 100-point mark for years to come.

After a slow month, K-Jack has turned it around with scores of 128 and 140 in the past fortnight – expect the tag to swing speedily back to young gun.

2. H. Hartlett (120)

You couldn’t mention the name ‘Hartlett’ in fantasy circles without eliciting a fart-in-an-elevator vibe just 2 months ago. The whole thing stunk, but no one wanted to talk about it, and so it just awkwardly wafted. Now… it’s a salt-in-the-wound mentality for a lot of coaches as far as Hamish in concerned. After most owners dumped him following a horror stretch mid-year (57.2 average over 5 rounds), he’s turned his form around in a big way.

His 120-point return on the weekend was the icing on a 2-month old cake, in which he’s served up just the single score under 83. Congrats to the 18% of owners who are currently on the Hartlett train – you’ve just bought yourself a ticket to this year’s version of the Broughton (circa 2011) rollercoaster!

R19 Broughton v Hartlett

Hold tight.

1. L. Hansen (113)

If you had asked me pre-season about Hansen’s fantasy prospects this pre-season, it’s fair to say you wouldn’t have received a positive response. My general feeling about Hansen has always been that he is to AFL as Magikarp is to Pokemon, Paris Hilton is to Hollywood, and Mark Ricciuto is to any sort of media career.

Fast forward 6 months and he’s an integral part of North Melbourne’s game plan, notching DT scores of 94 or higher in each of his past six (full) matches! At $366k (after a $41k price hike this week), he’s still cheap enough to bring in as a POD in the forward line – so strongly consider Hansen if you’re unhappy with the exploits of any of your current crop.

 

Trolling R19

R19 Oden3. C. Sylvia (40)

Trading in Colin Sylvia on the eve of finals is like chanting Bloody Mary into a mirror before helping out your long-lost Arabian Prince Millionaire cousin with a loan, because he’ll totally pay you back in spades. You’re tempting fate, and you’re destined to lose.

At $378k, on the back of dual 80-point scores and coming up against the ‘might’ of GWS, Sylvia looked like a pretty solid bet, or at least a risk worth taking… But hey, so did Greg Oden for the Portland Trailblazers ahead of Kevin Durant, or Richard Tambling full-stop, and we all know how those acquisitions turned out. 40 points against the lowly Giants with the Whiley tag (who??)… Yuck. No wonder they call you Colon.

R19 Malcreepy2. N. Malceski (64)

Seriously, is Malceski the creepiest looking player in the AFL? Sure, Milne looks like he was raised in a sewer, Cameron Ling looked way to much like Carrot Top and Fraser Gehrig was simply hideous… But Malceski looks like he definitely has a few bodies buried in his backyard. Avoiding him in a one-on-one conversation is pretty high up on my list of priorities in life.

Either way, his scoring lately has been scary enough. After an excellent 7-game spree – in which he failed to score 97 points just once – he’s dropped off considerably. 64, 74 and 64 has contaminated his score log, thanks to a combination of niggling injuries and forward tags. Unfortunately, this is just another chapter in what has been a nightmare of a season in the backline.

1. T. Mitchell (58) / B. Staker (47)

In an ideal world, women would revere fantasy coaches like Rockstars and Tom Mitchell and Brent Staker would line up at M9 and D7/F7 at best in your DT side. Unfortunately, some would be starting them for a plethora of reasons (cash, injury, and in the case of T. Mitchell, a serious fantasy chubby).

Even more unfortunate are the Ibbotson and Priddis owners, who not only missed out on Premium scores from the pair due to late withdrawals, but copped 58 from a Picken-tagged Titch, and just 47 from 3 goals for Staker – possibly instead of an impressive 90 from Clisby. Ouch.

 

  • PODs and Steals

It’s DT Finals – the time of the year where it’s all about the points. Most of us are out of the running for Overall glory, so saving face in front of/continuing the dominance of your friends or workmates in League Finals is the sole priority.

This particular Bullet is for the underdog – the team that needs that extra boost to get the chocolates. Clearly, if you’re the raging favourite, all you need to do is nullify uniques (your opponent has Barlow, but you don’t? Easy call) or grab the obvious guys (Hanley, Beams,Cox/ Kreuzer, Rockliff, etc.) and hope that no one has a stroke.

If you’re in doubt for the W, you have two considerations. You either want to recruit the Unique guy – the little-owned player that can go boom – or the value buy. Why would you need to save money if it’s a must-win you ask? So you can spend big with your 2nd trade, of course!

DEFENDERS:

POD: Harry O’Brien ($402,600 DEF)

The backline is all topsy-turvy these days, so why not go full #YOLO with Harry O? His 113 at the weekend was his 3rd 110+ score of the season, showing a ceiling that many other defenders don’t have. He’s also scored 75 or more in his last 8 games, making the worst-case scenario a mid-range Gibbs score these days. At 4.9% owned, he’s a sneaky one.

STEAL: Heath Scotland ($367,300 MID/DEF)

With a -16BE, Scotland is both cheap as chips and completely risk-free. Scores of 129 and 126 this week indicate that super-slut Scotland is back, but do you trust these scores are indicators of future returns? I personally think it’s a little slice of Fool’s Gold – no evidence to this theory (short of the 57-point three-round average coming into R18, anyway), just a gut feeling I’ve got.

MIDFIELDERS:

R19 ScooterPOD: Scott Selwood ($508,900 MID)

My boy! Scoots had 98 at the weekend, but many coaches won’t realise this was injury-affected and will write him off. A head-knock slowed his progress in the 2nd half, but before then he was on track for a score more like the 113 he had against the Bulldogs in his return from a broken hand. I think a lot of people forget that he’s still the 7th-highest averaging pure Mid this year, and 8th when restricted to last five scores -and he’s just 3.3% owned.

STEAL: Steele Sidebottom ($479,800 MID)

I’ve talked about Steele’s increased influence with Beams around, so I won’t dwell on that here too much. What I will say, is that he’s averaging 118.3 points over his last 4 games, and the current Magic Number implies he’s priced at an average of 102.9 points. Bargain!

RUCKS:

POD: Will Minson ($422,800 RUC)

They say that you’re not a real man if you don’t have a big Willie. I don’t know if I’d go that far, but getting in Will Minson at R2 would be a great POD over the vanilla Kreuzer/Roughead options that most of us have. 112 and 99 in the last fortnight, with the Demons in the DT Grand Final – Minson’s looking like an excellent buy that only 5.6% of coaches can say they’ve made already.

STEAL: Shane Mumford ($363,900 RUC)

Mumford’s injury concerns are well documented, and with the hugely improved Pyke in the side, he’ll always be a red-vest chance. However, it’s these factors that have contributed to his low price. If you like the look of his last two scores of 107 and 103, now’s the time to jump on.

FORWARDS:

R19 MaynePOD: Chris Mayne ($427,700 FWD)

Mayne is the definition of unique, lining up in just 4.8% of sides despite output that clearly deserves more attention. The combination of his impressive form (98.2 L5 average, basement of 83 in that time) and Fremantle’s cakewalk run home (Giants, Melbourne, Port, Saints) renders Mayne a huge chance for a ton average over DT Finals!

STEAL: Lachie Hansen ($366,000 FWD)

The classic out-of-position pick, Lachie Hansen. Earning the majority of his points across halfback has caused his output to sky-rocket (as mentioned in the Polling section above), but his concussion-induced donut in R16 has contributed in no small way in keeping his price affordable. With a BE of just 22 for Hansen this week, the risk factor is low but the potential is huge.

 

  • Tbettas Tweets

R19 TT Sandi

I considered Sandi for the section above, but overlooked him for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he’s about as strong as industrial-grade toilet paper, so there’s always the chance that he’ll break down yet again. Secondly, Freo has that tasty little fixture you mention – but where you see extra points, I see opportunity to rest an underdone star.

With 80 points from gradually-increasing ruck time last week, he’s far from the worst option – just a very risky one.
R19 TT No trade

I think I’ve commented on this concept before – there is absolutely no situation in which you shouldn’t be use both your trades.

You may have 25 Premos, the best downgrade option and no injuries to patch up – but there’s still so much else you can do. Downgrading your D8/M10/R4/F8 for cash next week is a very good back-up option, strengthening your bench cover is another; otherwise, smart Fixture Trading can still improve your squad week to week.
R19 TT GWS tag

Mark Whiley (Sylvia, 40) and Taylor Adams (Jones, 80) were the youngsters given jobs last week; but I see Whiley as the only specialist tagger in the side, with guys like Greene, Coniglio and Scully all asked to do a lock-down job intermittently this season.

There’s no history for GWS tagging Freo, so it’s purely guesswork. However, I’d be very surprised if they overlooked the damaging Mundy, Fyfe and Hill for a crack at Barlow, as the guy can barely kick.

As a result, I’d be much more nervous as a Fyfe owner, especially as he’ll likely get 3 Brownlow votes for last week’s untagged effort and that fact won’t escape GWS.
R19 TT Better to

Great question Douth! I strongly believe in the latter, which is why  I personally cashed up with Grundy (downgrade) and Hansen (value) before R19, so I can concentrate on fielding the best possibly 18 each week over DT Finals, without stressing about the dollar signs.

In saying that, there’s no reason why you can’t be satisfying both sides of the Cash vs Points ledger. If you have a Ibbotson/Malceski type in your backline, then the small cash boost from one of that pair to Scotland could fund the switch from Priddis to Sidebottom (or similar) in your midfield.

 

  • Famous Last Words

Hopefully this week’s Bullets have been informing and relevant for your League match-up this week. As usual, you’re encouraged to get involved in the comments below – even if it’s just to suggest a better “Creepiest AFL Player” than Malceski (The Weapon doesn’t count) or to argue that Kim Kardashian is more of a waste of space than Paris Hilton. Anyway, here’s a few parting thoughts for Round 20 – good luck!

# Downgrades

Reckon you’ve got it in the bag this week? Strongly consider laughing in the face of your opponent by downgrading this week in preparation for a more difficult Round 21 battle.

Grundy ($107,200 RUC) is obviously and deservedly the most popular choice, although note that he is far from a certainty to play this week, with Jolly and Witts waiting in the wings. Lewis Johnston ($140,100 FWD) would be my next port of call. He had 98 on debut in the Showdown this week and should play for as long as Jenkins is out with that ankle issue. Mitch Grigg ($108,500 MID) is another consideration if he plays, but only if you can stash him at M10 – he’s a massive sub concern.

# Fruitful Fixture

Fixture Trading is more an art than a science, but sometimes the numbers are irrefutable. For instance, we might look at Sydney, Essendon and Fremantle as tough fantasy opponents given their standings on the AFL Ladder, but this isn’t always the case.

R19 L5 Tables

As you can see above, Syd/Ess/Freo are all in the top 5 for ‘Total DT Points Generated’ per game, the sum of the averages of their own scoring and their opponents over the past 5 rounds. You’ll also notice that they are in the bottom half of the ‘Points Against’ table, which I find very surprising in the case of both Sydney and Fremantle – considered highly restrictive opponents in a strictly AFL sense.

My point? Don’t write off players or teams based on the brand power of clubs – keep your analysis based in the realm of fact.

R19 Burgundy# Double Chance

The double chance is kind of a big deal guys. Go hard for it this week – if you’re successful, you’ll have the week off, with two trades still to use.

What do you do with those trades? Perhaps you take a risk on a player with a Low BE, or go to the bank with a double-downgrade – and stockpile all the cash you’ll need to make improvements to your side over the final two rounds!

64 Comments

  • great article, really like your stuff!

    DEF:Goddard, Heppel, Enright, Hanley, Gibbs, Ellis (Clisby, Docherty)
    MID: Ablett, Swan, Pendles, Jack, Montagna, Sitchell, Fyfe, Titchell (Grigg, Growden)
    RUC: Cox, Kreuzer (Grundy, Grimley)
    FWD: Riewoldt, Rockliff, Lewis, Cloke, Bartel, Buddy (Lee, Daniher)

    would like to get rid of buddy and titchell, so:

    buddy > minson (via cox DPP) and Titch > Jobe

    or

    buddy > stokes and titch to patty danger?!

    personally, i’m thinking 1, but hansesn could be another possibility, in which case i would be able to go titch > ROK

  • Great Article Tbetta. Doubt Grigg will get the sub vest this week, he was named in the best for the Crows despite his game time.

    • I’ll take 58 from less than half game! Better than my DEF or FWD emergencies in Staker (47) and Macaffer (37).

  • top article tbetta!

    double upgrade this week getting hanley and a premo midfielder..

    was thinking jelwood but having previously been an owner of scooter selwood and love his work, curious as to who you think i should have in the run in?

    going for the league win not overall..

    thanks!

    • as tbetta mentioned above it depends on who your opponent is. If you are the underdog go the one he doesn’t have (likely scooter). If he has neither then jelwood is probably close to his max price and you would hope he continues his great run
      Due to his great form jelwood would have to be priority but scooter would be a very handy POD with a big ceiling

  • great write up mate what do you think about bringing jobe watson in only 420000 and is a certified jet or fyfe maybe even libba also who would you bring in out of enright and hanley.

    • yeah i was thinking jobe too. way underpriced due to the game he got injured in

      • He’s got a pretty high BE, so you could wait a week and pick him up for someone like Titchell or JOM.

  • thoughts on libba as POD for finals ?

  • Exactly the article we need leading into these DT finals!
    Also, your writing has done me again this week, I think I might change my mind yet again!
    My question was: do I take the underpriced Bartel, or do I go for Hansen, the POD scoring machine?

  • Mitchell wasn’t tagged lol. Picken often plays as a small defender these days.

  • I’ve had Mayne on footytips for the past month or so and have been strongly considering him for the real DT too.
    Only problem is which fwd to trade out:
    Martin, Stevie J, Bartel, Rocky, Tippet, JJK, Stokes, Rowe.

    I’m thinking Tippet or Stokes, even though both scored very well on the weekend.

    My other trade this week is definately Terlich to Enright/Hanley.
    If I decide against Mayne, I’m looking at trading Titchell to Beams and then ‘fixture benching’ whichever mid premo I feel might cop a tag or just plain suck (probably Sitchell at this point).

    • Depending on trades, uniques will be:

      Me: Jelwood, Cotchin, Sitchell, Enright, Maric, Tippet/Stokes

      Him: O’Meara, Stanton, Harvey, Goldstien, Titchell, Staker

      I think mine look stronger with one exception of Maric.

    • Tippet you Muppet, He’s either hot or cold, more often than not Cold, and is prone to getting concussed (Coming From a Crows Fan)

  • Should I consider trading out Gibbs or Ibbotson? Gibbs played a defensive-tagging role last week, and looked slack as shit, making no second efforts. I don’t know what’s been going on with Ibbotson, so I’m probably going to give him another week.

    • Ibbo has a very easy run home (which is the reason a lot of people brought him in a month ago).. might a tad silly to trade him out at this point.
      He could continue his crap form but if he goes BANG against the four dud clubs, you’ll be kicking yourself.

      Gibbs has been shit but I’m keeping him. Anyone I bring in is likely to be just as shit, and I can get more benefit using the trade elsewhere.
      (for example in my case it would be Gibbs to Hanley, which isnt as good as say Titchell to Beams).

      • Plus, Gibbs ownership is > 44%.

        Everyone still has him so we all get the same crap score.

        • Gibbs has a lot of upside in him so I will be keeping him… and yes most top teams will have him so any crap score isn’t as bad.
          Ibbo has suffered with McPharlin out as he has had to play a more defensive tall role… limiting his intercept and rebounding opportunity. With his easy run and mcPharlin due back in a week or two I think he can pull out some big scores over finals

  • Great article by the way! I love a good Pokemon reference ;)

  • trade gibbs or terlich to stevie j or rocky via hendo dpp?
    Thoughts!

  • Do we reckon Barlow can crack 124 against GWS?

    I’d like to get in Griffen this week and Barlow next to spend less $$ overall, but I’m worried that Griffen might falter against Carlton’s midfield and cost me my double chance.

  • Great stuff Tbetta! What a mixed bag – finished top 4 in a couple of leagues and bottom 2 in one?!

    Looking to downgrade Thurlow/Rowe to a basement rook and upgrade in the mids this week. I’ve currently got Titch and Marc Murphy as my mid 8/9. Who would you recommend to upgrade? Would love to hear your thoughts (or anyone’s, really).

    Thanks again.

    • I’m also looking to upgrade one of Murphy or Titchell at M8/M9.

      The data says Murphy is the one to trade with higher BE (93 vs 90) and lower L3 scores (74 v 81). Personally I think Titch is getting tired and Murphy has the potential to get back to 100+ form.

      Murphy’s record against the Dogs isn’t amazing (85), but the last 3 teams they play he scored 100+ against earlier in the year. Tough call.

  • Hilton easily over that hideous freak Kargashian.

  • Great article as always Tbetta.

    Who would you play on the bench out of Hibberd, Gibbs, Hendo & Scotland???

    • Tough one.. I think Hendo proved himself to be fools gold on the weekend however. The other three are more proven, even if they’re inconsistant lately. I’d bench Hendo.

      • That’s what I was thinking. I’ve had Scotland on the mid bench for most of the year and it looks like he is starting to come good lol

  • Well, I feel a bit more convinced by Sidebottom now. I absolutely hate having players who get tagged (getting Deledio in rd 12, followed by 7 spud scores does that to you), and he’ll escape all attention, especially with Beams back.

    Now it’s either Deledio > K.Jack/Sidebottom, I think. Interesting that Sidebottom has a great record against his Grand Final opponents.

  • Question – If your opponent DOESNT have Swanny – would you captain Gaz and neutralize his score, and just send in the troops head to head? Or would you captain Swanny and just hope Gaz doesnt go BANG! He is due after a quieter couple of weeks, and I am projected to win with Swan as capt, it would be close, but barring late withdrawals i think the rest of my team is better…

    • I’d have a read of Calvins Captians before making the call (when it is out). It would also depend on your uniques, but I would be inclined to go Swan.

  • Fantastic article Tbetta! Got me thinking long and hard about my trades this week as I just scraped into the 8.

  • Read of the week, as always.

    Hansen has a tastey consistency for the price, but am I the only one thinking about Wellingham for a POD? handy little 2-game average (albeit against the lower sides), DPP and a tempting price.
    [WC bias may be at work here]

  • Awesome article TBetta, malceski is one creepy looking guy, he looks alot like CM PUNK from WWE.

  • Great article, Mitch Robinson has to be right up there as one of the creepiest looking players !!

  • Another enjoyable read TBetta, thanks.
    Malceski being the creepiest player in AFL? Crowley is the creepiest but Eski is the creepiest looking but has plenty of competition, it’s not a beauty pagaent. Which leads in nicely to the next topic, Kim Kardashian is definitely (notice correct spelling!) a bigger waste (waist) of space than Paris Hilton. North West, come on, really.
    Yes M Voss is a nob but he’s only one nob amongst a bunch of nobs in nobsville. Any coach/club that pulls a late withdrawl by being deceiptful about injured players is/are worthy of nob status, grrrr.
    The sun may well have set on the DT H/A season so farewell Titch until next year…but wait a new dawn beckons, the Suns will rise in the DT Finals with a very DT friendly draw.
    I finished number 1 in my league of choice, which makes me kind of a big deal, even without leather bound books and mahogany. Fixture trading (FT), double downgrading (DD) and points of deviance (PODs) will be the order of the day along with any other two, three of four letter acronyms, just not FMDT!

  • Should I trade roughead?
    If so who to? I can get Goldstein through cox DDP or get the cheaper Hansen
    I have 17,600 left By the way

  • And how did Selwood receive this head knock TBet? Please tell

    For those that didnt watch the game he ducked, from standing upright, into a a blokes knee. What a fucking joke of a player. And of course gets a free kick. Which was what he was trying to do. Duck for a free kick. Embarrassment to out great game. Embarrassing that he gets a kick for it.

    • joke of a player? best on ground.Doing a job on the best player (Gazza) in the league says otherwise champ.

      • I do understand facilit8r’s point, the selwoods boys are the best at dropping at their shoulders and get cheap free kicks, not as good as ashton hams he’s the king. But the fact is scooter is a very good player, he can play both ways in racking up possessions, whilst also limiting opposition players and is an excellent tackler.

    • Cool story bro.

    • piss of mate, go tell it to the other 365 players in the AFL who play for free kicks.

      Do fwds throw there arms up as if their arms get chopped? Do midfielders hold the ball into players to try and get frees? Do players dive forward to get the push in the back calls?

      It happens 50 times a game if you watch for it, just because he is an eagle all of a sudden its a capital punishment crime.

      Scooter is a great player, I don’t think anyone could deny that

      • People also seem to quickly forget that Jordan Lewis ducked into an oncoming player last weekend too. But because he plays for a Victorian club its ok…..

  • HAHAHA milney does look like he was raised in a sewer