Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 16

tbetta_bullets

  • The Headlines

Round 16 was the highest scoring round we’ve seen all year – thanks largely to quasi-completed squads – but it wasn’t without its hiccups. Captain choices, late withdrawals, restings and botched bench decisions still haunt our sides even in the best of weeks. 2200 was around about par this week – how did you fare?

In the midst of the beer-heavy DT Talk weekend, I had to give myself a bit of a refresher on the week’s headlines:

# MRP Findings

It was one of the biggest weeks we’ve seen at the MRP this year; not just in terms of quantity, but also in the relevance of some of the players in the firing line.

Pavlich (3 weeks), Embley (2 weeks), Burgoyne (2 weeks) and Kane Cornes (1 week) will all spend time on the sidelines with varying degrees of relevancy, but it’s the 1-week suspension of Stevie J that really hurts. It also means that he’ll limp into DT finals with points hanging over his head and the inability to submit an early plea due to a poor previous record… Let’s just say that going 7-deep in the forward line is a must if you own the mercurial Geelong utility.

R16 Pendles# Swan flight path hard to predict

Once considered ‘untaggable’ and undeniably the best midfielder going around at the Pies, Swan now finds himself helping out up forward and proving ineffective against the Van Berlo tag. As a result, the level of trust that we have traditionally put into Swan has to be reconsidered – clearly he’s a beast on-song, but he’s shown this season that he can be thwarted tactically.

Working in his favour, however, is the damage that Pendlebury (153) caused when let off the leash against the Crows. He scored 94 DT (including two running goals) in the 2nd half after the Van Berlo tag flipped to Swanny, but the most telling indicator is the scoreboard: In the first half, the Crows tagged Pendlebury and trailed by 4 at half time. Once the tag switched to Swan and Pendles was allowed to run free, Adelaide lost the half by 23 points. Coincidence?

Surely Pendlebury continues to get the opposition’s best over the next few weeks because let’s be honest – he deserves it.

# Rookies to Sophomores

I love nothing more than when a Premium drops off due to a late withdrawal or injury or suspension, and you can simply plug in a performing rookie at no significant loss your side. Actually, seeing Ballantyne pull his hamstring during a goal celebration on the weekend was pretty amazing, so let’s call this a close second. Hrovat’s 99 was perfect cover in the guts, while Sam Mayes’ 99 was a godsend for those with Stevie/Franklin/Stokes issues up forward. It’s his third score of 88 or more in his past four starts, so he’s shown it’s not blue-moon situation when he scores well. With Stevie J out this week, he could even become my F6 replacement.

Elsewhere, Nicholls (105), Staker (78), Goodes (97), O’Meara (89), Crouch (108), Rowe (84), Dwyer (83) and Hutchings (114) were the big rookie performers – you’d have been beaming if you picked up any of these scores off the bench!

R16 Licha# Window Licker

What a week for Winderlich ($411,900 FWD) – 153 points, thank you very much! His injury record is almost as scary as Jaensch when he’s green-vested, but he’s certainly got his DT game up and running at the minute. Scores of 99, 110 and 153 over the past three weeks puts his BE of 2 this week – possibly the only bankable bridging trade we have on offer, unless teammate Tom Bellchambers ($345,500 RUC – 118 and 105 in L2) is more your speed, or Josh Caddy ($298,900 MID – 80, 89 and 104 in L3) is more price-appropriate.

# Beambox

The most expensive player in the competition ($599,400) played his first game for 2013, and I must say… I want him. Not just yet, because he’s still finding match fitness and his price is still too inflated (hasn’t been filtered through the new magic number yet), but for DT finals? What an excellent POD he’d be.

80 points was Beams’ return on the weekend, thanks to 25 touches and a handful of tackles. But it was how he looked – comfortable and mobile. Expect his TOG of 81% to ramp up over the next few weeks, and we’ll see Beamer flying again.

 

  • Polling and Trolling

Polling R16

Image courtesy of Dream-Stats.com

Image courtesy of Dream-Stats.com

3. Tom Mitchell (113)

Seriously, what a gun! Here I am plotting ways to bolster my midfield sans Titch at 3Q time – then he comes out with that 67-point quarter and redefines junk time. It will be interesting to see whether Mitchell continues in that exclusively-forward role he played for the first three quarters, or if it was merely part of a weekly rotation that includes other talented youngsters like Bird and Parker. Until we know for sure, how can you not start someone who’s averaged 106.2 DT points (when not subbed) over their entire career?!

2. Rockliff (134)

Rocky’s back! See what happens when you play him in the guts Vossy?! Brownlow votes. We’ve always known Rockwiz has all the tricks to perform at a Super-Premium level, but it’s been all about his role these past two seasons. In 2013, his splits by position read: Playing forward; 74 average. Playing in the guts; 105 points per game. I don’t blame you if you jumped off the big fella, but with this role change in the absence of Moloney and Black, he’s a sure thing. Although, according to this article, that is all subject to fitness tests this week…

1. Stevie J (156)

With a slutty 156 points against the lowly Demons, Stevie J confirmed he’s a must-have DT player in 2013 – when he gets on the park, that is. Unfortunately, he’s again been rubbed out yet again for getting all Embley on Nathan Jones’ ass. At the end of the day, Stevie J’s 156 + your R17 emergency score(Macaffer, Mayes, Franklin, etc.) will likely be more than any other forward option over that fortnight, but we didn’t pay $540k to see Stevie J’s dopey head looking sheepishly back at us from the bench. Just play footy, mate.

Trolling R16

3. D6 misfires

As the 6th and 8th most-owned Defenders competition wide, Vlastuin’s 56-point effort and Terlich’s 44-point failing had significant ramifications in the race for overall glory. Add in Hartlett (who’s possibly more frustrating than trying to blindly plug in a USB) and his 43 points, and you’re getting much less than the 90-point average he’s produced over the previous month. Can we continue to trust these guys at D6? I don’t know about you, but I’ll be going out of my way to get these types to D7 as coverage, while playing more consistent performers; if only for my sanity.

2. Montagna (64)

Joey would be a sure thing this year if he could just eliminate the shockers. His 64 points in Round 16 was his third score under 80 this season (two 78’s previously), which you simply can’t take from a Premium in the midfield. Montagna averages more than the following trio; but Ebert (102.5 avg) has only posted 1 score under 83 all year, Masten (101.6 avg) just the two below 91 and even Douglas (100.9 avg) has only produced 1 score less than 84 this season, and none have scored as low as 64. Until Tags proves he can prevent these periodical failures, he remains alongside these players in the ‘nearly there’ Super-Premium bracket, and not amongst the fantasy elite as he once was.

1. Cox (59)

Well this is interesting… Let’s rewind a fortnight. Things are going swimmingly for Coxy, he’s just posted 3 tons on the trot, averaging a competition-high 96 DT per game with a low of just 73. Awesome.

Now fast forward to the present, and he’s produced 66 and 59 back-to-back, dropped $30k (with more to come, cheers 153 BE) and looks generally sore out there in the middle.

Things are even murkier when you consider that NicNat is a good chance to get rested this week – over the last two seasons, Cox has averaged 94.9 points when playing alongside the talented palm tree, but that increases to 102.7 points when flying solo. What to do, what to do…

 

  • Form Ticker

So far we’ve looked at ‘Fixture Trading’ from a general point of view, with a team versus team mentality. While that’s a great indication of the ease of scoring against certain opponents, it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story.

Different playing styles mean points are offered to differing types of players or in differing areas of the ground – below are a few focus areas that I’ve noted over the previous weeks:

R16 FT DefDefenders vs GWS

Next Three: Essendon, Collingwood, Melbourne

Last week, McVeigh’s and Malceski’s massive scores alerted me to a strong trend developing in GWS games – opponent defenders are mopping up the points. The Sydney pair executed the holy trinity for backmen:

1. Lots of uncontested marks – 17 between them.

2. High kick-to-handball ratio – Malceski logged 26:4 and McVeigh 21:14

3. Team Leaders in Rebound 50’s – 13 between the pair.

This indicated that a) they were beneficiaries of long ‘kick-and-hope’ thrusts forward by GWS; b) were constantly gaining meterage for the side via foot – meaning extra points vs handballs; and c) were the designated distributers out of defence, meaning that their teammates would try to get the pill into their hands and that GWS were allowing that to happen.

With that in mind, Goddard, Heppell and Hibberd should be excellent against the Giants this week. HeppD was rested against them earlier in the year, but on that occasion Hibbo managed 105 and BJ notched 114. Lock them in!

R16 FT MidMids vs Adelaide

Next Three: Geelong, Fremantle, Port

As the Pirate has pointed out in recent weeks, Adelaide bleed points in the midfield. Monster scores to Pendlebury and Prestia goes to show that you can damage them in the engine room. However, it is worth noting that Swan and Ablett both had mediocre scores (by their lofty standards) thanks to one man: Van Berlo. Gaff was the player tagged against the Eagles, and just managed 43 points.

So what does this mean? Well, if Van Berlo tags you… you’re screwed. But if you’re anyone else – enjoy the party! So who attracts the wrath of VB in the next few weeks, and who gets invites to the point-fest?

R16 VBWith Stevie J out this week, Selwood is still the prime and sole candidate in my eyes. It might not be a hue one from him as a result, but expect someone like Stokes to slut it up and bust out a massive score. After that, it all depends on form and preference. He didn’t apply a tight tag against Freo last time to the best of my knowledge, but went straight to Boak in the previous Showdown.

R16 FT Rucks MelbRucks vs Melbourne/North

R16 FT Rucks NthNext Three: Brisbane, North, GWS / Carlton, Melbourne, Geelong

It should come as no surprise that Melbourne leaks points in the ruck, particularly when the opponent is the raw Max Gawn – although it is worth noting, he’s pumped out scores of 100, 96 and 96 in the past three weeks, indicating that he plays very loosely on his direct opponent and vice-versa. You’d think Leuenberger and Goldstein would have field days against the Dees in the next fortnight – lock them in for 80+.

On the flipside, North (and Goldstein) is as stingy to opposition ruckman as they are to his fellow teammates. Leunberger’s 75 against the Roos is his worst score in a month, and adds another dimension to the Cox –> Kreuzer trade that many (including myself) are considering.

Kreuzer is super-consistent, but comes up head-to-head against Goldstein this week – will he exceed those before him, or continue the trend? It’s something that I’ll wrestle with in the days leading up to lockout.

 

  • General Leigh Resting

The big thing that I took out of Round 16 was Geelong calling upon The General, and resting a couple of key players. Enright was to be my star inclusion in defence but decided to take a siesta instead, while Stokes changed his mind at the last minute and joined him – forcing a donut down my throat. Boo, Geelong. Boo.

It does suggest that we should probably look at when certain teams might choose to rest their stars – obviously, that criteria generally includes sides that are finals-bound and will be playing a bottom-placed side such as GWS, Giants or Melbourne in the run home.

Collingwood – Rounds 17 & 18

The Pies play the Suns and Giants in the next two weeks, although Gold Coast at Metricon would be the leading candidate based on the travel factor. Are the Pies in-form enough to be resting stars? Their record (10 and 5, sitting 7th) and injury list suggests probably not.

However… Swan was sensationally rested (via Arizona) last season, so they have certainly shown a willingness to hold back a superstar for the greater good. Plus, the Pies have just enough swagger to execute these kinds of controversial calls despite public backlash.

Essendon – Round 17

As I mentioned earlier, Heppell was rested for the corresponding game against the Giants in Round 6, so definitely keep an eye out for reports of ‘soreness’ on Thursday. Goddard and Hibberd have both played every game this year, while Stanton’s fitness has been questionable over the past fortnight and would be a leading candidate for a break.

Fremantle – Round 21

Remember that time that Fremantle rested about 7 stars for a late-season trip to Tasmania and were towelled up by the Hawks? Well, Freo are again preapring for a finals berth, and Round 21 is the perfect week for the General to pay a visit. Against Melbourne in Victoria, not too close to finals… Excellent timing for Barlow/Fyfe/Mundy/Johnson/Ibbotson to have a game off, don’t you think?

This is obviously all speculation, but it’s something you might want to keep in mind – no one wants a repeat of Hawthorn circa 2011…

 

  • 100 Words or Less on:

# The Contract Year

Why is it that the ‘Contract Year’ phenomenon has the complete opposite effect in the AFL than it does in the NBA?

With Cloke and Franklin heading into Free Agency over the past two seasons, one would assume that they’d want to play quality footy to secure a greater payday – we’ve seen this is far from the reality, with both superstars regressing into fumbly new-born deer out on the field in their high-profile seasons.

R16 Cloke v Buddy

I wonder who’s next?

# McDowngrade

You know you’re struggling for fresh meat when either your pet pigs eat you, or Matthew Arnot ($108,500 MID) is your best downgrade option. Adam Carter ($102,700 MID) made his debut on the weekend, but don’t expect him to hold his spot long-term.

This is definitely the week for the old R4 downgrade in my opinion. If you still have Rowe/Blicavs/Daw still sitting there unused, then that’s basically a hunk of cash that you don’t have access to. Moller/Naismith/Osborn are the cheapest replacements at $89k, while Calvin’s mate McBean ($102,700 RUC/FWD) is your best DPP bet.

TTY Unique# Unique New York

The reduced uniqueness of teams towards the season really starts to irk me around about now, made worse by the fact that every coach pretty much has ‘complete’ squads and continually sideways trades out of short-term injuries rather than holding like we have in the past.

I find my fortunes basically rest on the shoulders of my POD’s – players roughly under 25% ownership, or players that you play/bench when most other coaches don’t. This is essentially my side for Round 17 – what does yours look like?

# The Price of Doing Business

Another expected effect of 44 Trades is the amount of luxury trades being used. I’ve seen many coaches ousting underperforming Premos lately, with Rockliff, Hanley, Franklin and Cotchin amongst those burnt. And now Cox – probably the third-best fantasy player of the modern era – is under fire himself.

The (somewhat unforeseen) problem with this is that it promotes a negative cash cycle. For instance, if you bought Hanley at $470k then traded him out at $360k, then you’ve lost $110k. If the replacement you picked up was Hibberd at $420k, and he’s rested this week, then you might want to trade him out for someone else – except he’s now $50k cheaper than when you got him.

Continually do this, and you’re undoing all the good work that your rookies put in over the first half of the season. One day soon, you might just not have enough cash to get the job done. This is where ‘holding’ comes into play in the 44 Trades era, as well as snapping up the fallen Premos – not just the players of the moment, like Griffen a fortnight ago, or Birchall in Round 6.

Well that’s my half-baked effort for this week – apologies for the lateness and brevity of this week’s edition, I’m still struggling after a big DT weekend with the boys. On that, a big thanks to all the Perthlings who stopped in for the DT Talk Live Show on Thursday Night, particularly those who came up and said hello – we appreciated the company, and I hope you enjoyed the night as much as we did! Agar!

88 Comments

  • Good Article Tbetta!

    Still dont agree with your views on carter, the way the eagles are i wouldnt be surprised if he plays nearly every game for the rest of the season, purely because they need a small fast backman, and some inside knowledge could help :P

    • Carter was hopeless, don’t think I saw him hit a target all day.

      • Did you watch the game, Ryan?

        Carter did well for a young fella who only has a handful WAFL games under his belt. He racked up 11 disposals at 72% efficiency, a few marks and two tackles, leading him to 58 DT points. Not to mention he kept Ballantyne goalless. He’s a good 89k option, however I personally recommend Blayne Wilson at 108k. He has two AFL games to his name as it stands, averaging 18 disposals and a bench-worthy 66 DT points. I have a sneaking suspicion he’ll be recalled this week instead of Carter, however I may be wrong.

        Great article as always, and go the mighty Eagles!

        • I watched the entire game on the weekend, and in my opinion, Carter could slot in well, don’t get me wrong, Adam Selwood is a brilliant tagger, but he is lacking in speed, something Carter has. As Luke said, he went at 70% efficiency and got 1 disposals. I really only saw him “shank” one kick, his ball use and decision making was good, he also has a strong body to match it with the best of small forwards. Anyway, when he is named for his third game, you would probably be picking him up for your D8 position not D7,so at least he is playing.

      • Didn’t hit a target all day? Didn’t you see Ballentyne go off with a fat lip? And unlike some Geelong superstars Carter didn’t get reported for nailing him either.

        • hahahaha Hoon, couldn’t blame Carter for “accidently” nailing Ballantyne! He had to stand him for the whole game after all!

    • Happy to be ultimately proven wrong, but as soon as McGinnity is back from suspension, Carter is gone.

      And that’s if Shuey/Kerr/Wellingham/Scooter doesn’t force him out in the meantime.

  • love the point about the switch from tagging swan to pendles by van berlo. one wonders why anyone would ever tag swan. 25possessions from pendles = 40 from swan.

    • +1 from a Crows supporter. Pendles is so much more damaging. A lot of Swan’s disposals are hurried kicks or even soccers, just to get a stat.

    • Yep, stuck out like a sore thumb while we were watching the game. Pendles is super effective, Swan more of a workhorse type. You simply can’t leave Pendles free to roam these days.

  • Cheers TBetta, top article as usual.

    What are your thoughts on fielding Nicholls ahead of Cox/Maric? And Titchell ahead of Sam Mitchell or Cotchin?

    • nicholls versus hudson, yeah i am seriously considering fielding nicholls over cox

    • Nicholls over Maric a no-brainer these days. Unfortunately, The Mullet has been seriously restricted by injury so far this year.

      As for Schnitzel and Cotch… Scores are so variable in the Mids that it’s hard to pick. But as I’ve said before, Sam Mitchell is difficult to rely on with his HBF role these days. Cotch, on the other hand, is back in form with two tons on the trot.

      At the end of the day, Titch hasn’t failed yet and I’ll be starting him until he gives me a reason not to.

  • G’day Tbetta, love your work.
    Who is the best option for Dangerfield replacement?
    Gaz,Pendles,Swan,Ball,Barlow,Priddis,Titchell. Crouch & Hrovat bench.
    I have 145 thou in the bank but also have Terlich issue & Macaffer as cover for SJ in the forwards.
    Any advice would be great.

    • I’m in the same position mate. I’m thinking Stanton.
      Although, i’m also considering rockliff.

      • Stanton might (will) cop a tough tag this week. GWS is surprisingly a tricky team to go up against DT wise. Stants only managed 51 against them earlier in the year.

        Joel Selwood and David Mundy have been good for me as of lately. Kieren Jack might also be a decent option due to his lowered price.

        I don’t see Terlich & Macaffer as issues as such – you couldn’t have expected too much from Terlich up against Geelong. Macaffer has GCS this week and GWS the week after, so he technically shouldn’t have a problem finding the ball.

        • Luke, not sure you are telling a full story. Stanton’s 51 vs GWS earlier this year was because of injury very early in the 2nd quarter (when on 43).

          • Ah, my apologies.

            He still only had 72 on them last year, but hey – if you want to risk it and jump on board, go for it.

          • I already have Stanton and was considering him for captain so had a look at GWS scores against, and no real massive scores against in a raw numbers sense (until the defenders stat, cheers tbetta!)

            From that same game, Watson only scored 54 from I presume a heavy tag (scully played that match and had 7 tackles, I presume of watson).

            Rocky for me.

    • Caff should do well following Ablett around.
      Terlich -> Malceski
      Danger -> Jack/ROK. Cotchin is starting to find some form but I’d wait until after he plays Freo this week. I’ve heard Stanton has some niggling injury issues. Cannot confirm.

    • You’ve got the main four already (Gablett, Swan, Pendles and Barlow), so no obvious picks.

      I like stanton at his price and the fact that he hasn’t failed yet apart from when injury-affected. However, reports of soreness are coming through so it’s hard to trust him at the moment.

      Outside of that, I really like Mundy and Ebert as uniques – picked up Ebert myself, and he has an awesome run over the next 2 or 3 weeks.

  • cheers tbetta, sounds like you had a good weekend!

  • Good stuff
    Can’t see Maggies resting anyone
    They need that top 4 spot or face the flying to Perth or Sydney for semis
    Freo will assess the risk/reward after the next 3 marginal games – then have 4 gimmes – win the next 3? Resting will then be rotated through the last 4 games – Won’t be a wholesale rest (esp Mel @ MCG)

    • Yeah, if I was a betting man I’d side with Collingwood playing it safe. Can’t really afford to be flirting with form in their position.

      Reckon Freo will definitely rest one or two in that Melbourne week regardless. Makes too much sense not to.

  • nothing half-baked about that

  • Despite your “half-baked” efforts TBetta, this article is still outstanding and still improving, with the same (if not more) information weekly!
    Keep it uuuuuuuup!

    • Cheers mate! Hardly any pre-production this week, so interesting to see that it was received well anyway.

  • nice article mate, not sure what to do with cox, so painful to see Nichols outscoring him. considering downgrading cox to a rookie ruck and playing Nichols this week instead.
    see how he goes with rowe on the bench and roughy in fwds so I can sub him in rucks if I need. silly to downgrade a premium to a rookie?

    • Yeah, downgrading Cox isn’t the answer I don’t think – it’s either a sideways or relegation to the bench (or even FWDs as you say) for mine.

      What happens if Nicholls starts going through a tough patch, or Cox regains form? If he’s down, he won’t be down for long. We know that.

      This is what I was referring to by ‘holding’ in the article above – those who held Hannley/Rockliff are starting to see a return for their faith, and can use their trades more effectively elsewhere.

      • True, but I held Cloke last year with devastating results. I still have Franklin this year, too – he’s my F7 these days, and not rewarding me for my faith just yet. Too cheap to trade out these days ;)

        You gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em…

        Cox is old and an old, foldable Cox isn’t much good for anything

        • Love the innuendo, but comparing 2013 Cox to 2012 Cloke is like comparing Nathan Ablett to Gary Ablett. Just not in the same league.

          Let’s be clear – this has just been a two-game slump so far. Swanny did the same in Round 8 & 9 – he’s still busted out big totals since then.

          Let’s just relax a bit.

  • Hey tbetta…i got 3 options for trading terlich to…is everybody just getn caught in the hupe of malceski’s game? Yeah hes had 5 recent good scores but all against poor oponents but has a low b/e. My other 2 to choose from is enright or i was thinking H.shaw, he is under 400k,b/e of just 60 and has gold coast and gws coming up. Will get ibbotson in nextweek after his price drops.

    Whats ur thoughts tbetta? Thanks

    • im considering Grimes… yes an injury risk but only 360k and a good POD

      • Due to the luxury trade factor, I doubt that Grimes will be particularly unique. Ceski probably more of a POD imo

    • Yeah, I’m not a Malceski fan, but even I can’t deny his numbers. I’ve been burnt in the past, but he’s a very important cog in the Sydney machine these days (r. Shaw out helps), so scores like he’s been producing recently (97 or more in 6 of his last 7 starts!) should continue until he gets tagged.

      Enright is my favoured option (trading him in myself this week) for his consistency and the fact that he’s already had his ‘rest’.

      Heath Shaw isn’t a terrible option, apart from his obvious tendencies to wreck your season with a stupid outburst. Pies have a great run coming up and he could be a great scorer over those weeks – particularly against GWS, of course.

  • Senasational tbetta.

    Two thoughts:
    – I think Dempsey is a great option this week. B/e of 52, 95 and 106 in last two against GWS. I am going to have 4 bombers in the back line if selection issues allow.
    – With uniquness, more dreamteamers are involved throughout the season, pushing ownership percentage of the super premiums higher I reckon. If you are an active player you have to have Pendles Barlow. I’ve never focussed on PODs really before, just after best team I can manage (which is usuually pretty average!).

  • Tbetta you gun!!!! I was planning to ask you if it was time to trade my R4 Rowe for cash, despite his low BE. But you were way ahead of me. You need not apologise for your article – it was up to your usual standard. High praise indeed.

    • Appreciate it mate!

      Yep, with Rowe – low BE, but once Waite is back (perhaps this week, apparently), he’s back in the wilderness. With very few rooks on the radar, R4 is one of the few places we can turn to for cash without risking the balance of our sides – it’s there for a rainy day just like this week.

  • Enright, malceski or shaw for terlich? See my recent post above. Any thoughts? Cheers

  • Half baked article? No way! Absolute cracker Tbetta! My team for this round looks like this

    DEF: McKenzie, Grimes, Hanley
    MID: Jack, Barlow, Douglas, Cotchin, (T. Mitchell?)
    FWD: Stokes/Cloke
    RUC: Kreuzer

    So not many players, haha. Again, thanks for a ripper!

  • You’re right, it is surprisingly hard to plug in a USB without looking.

    • It’s a mission. Particularly behind the xbox or the tv… Many expletives have been uttered (screamed) thanks to those little pricks.

  • Tbetta…who would be ur choice of defender to trade in this week? Enright, malceski(B/e 50) or H.Shaw(under 400k b/e only 60). Shaw has gold coast and gws coming up.

    • Answered in an earlier post mate, but to put it succinctly:

      1. Enright (consistency)
      2. Malceski (scared of a tag heading his way)
      3. Shaw (a headache, but great run coming up and cheap)

  • Not sure, if T Mitchell is a PoD – he is in 45% of teams?!
    My PoD
    BAC: Hanley, Ibbotson
    MID: Jelwood, Fyfe, Priddis, Dalziell & Hrovat (on bench)
    RUC: Jacobs, Rowe (on bench)
    FWD: Zorko, Dwyer (on bench), Rocky (currently at 25.84%, so i can sneak him in – surely this number will increase by Friday)

    Hoping Zorko reaches somewhere near 120 (he’s highest score this year achieved against Dees in R5)

    • He’s a potential POD, because I play him at M8 wile others might have him at M9.

      This is interesting, and kind of confirms what we’ve been thinking – not many POD forward line players, due to there being a clear top 8 or 9 forwards on offer.

      • Fair point – i’ve been playing him as M8 as well, so i can add another PoD to my team!! :-P

        Bought in Dalziell hoping he would pump out another decent score so he would jump in value so i can upgrade him in the next 2 weeks, but 42 last week didn’t help!

        Looking at the stats for the FWDs, there some decent PoDs, but i think due to issues in the Backs through the middle of the year, I think we’ve (or at least I have) neglected the FWDs to a certain extent

        looking at the some of top FWDs: You have N. Riewoldt – 11%, Roughy – 22%, Stokes – 11%, Cloke – 18%, Lewis – 7%, Harvey – 4%

        All of these guys are averaging 90+ (Lewis and Harvey at 88,89) so would definitely add value to your team..

      • Franklin is still in 44% of teams!!! It definitely seems we’ve been ignoring the FWDs for sure…..When you have someone like like Jack Gunston in only 1% of teams compared to Buddy, his lowest score since R8 is 75 & with 5 week rolling average of 95+!!!
        Paddy Ryder is another one – with 5 week average of 97+ and only in 5% of teams

        Both of these guys are a little bit pricey (at 420k+), but very handy PoDs especially considering the form they are in….

      • The clear POD in the forward line at the moment is Jack Gunston. Don’t laugh, dropped under 92 once in the last 8 games. With no Franklin again, he’s a cert to get over the line once more.

  • Thanks especially for the position-specific analysis Tbetta – it is top notch

    Based on your research, are you sure Heppell and Goddard are indicated for big scores against GWS? Even though they play in our DT back lines, they aren’t really defenders, they are midfielders, and mids actually struggle to go large against GWS as you have noted.

    I am not keen on any of Swan, Pendles, GAJ this week for some reason and I’m looking wide for a potential captain. Hepp/Godd appealed but now I am not so sure. What do you think?

    • That’s a great point. Goddard has been playing HBF predominantly from what I’ve seen – obviously Hibberd is back there too. Heppell probably fits in the MID basket pretty snuggly though,and unfortunately he didn’t play last year so we really don’t have any relevant data on him.

      Captains against GWS haven’t great so far this year – I’d look elsewhere. I, like you, am not sold on any of those three, so I’ll be having a long think about that tonight.

      Didn’t back in my gut last week and paid for it.

  • Seriously considering Stokes as captain based on those Adelaide stats.. If he smashes out a big one, I’ll owe it to Tbetta for swaying me to pick him up over Cloke!

  • Also, I’m staggered that Barlow is in only 17% of teams! Has an 8 round average of 117.75!

    • Wow!! Barlow is still a PoD – i didn’t even bothered checking ’cause I was sure he’d be in more teams – but once i saw that Franklin is still in 44% of the teams nothing seems more surprising!!!

    • Yep. Don’t forget a heap of people traded him out with that face issue, and might no have had the ability to get him back in.

      However, if you haven’t got him – that’s a clear inclusion. Absolute ball magnet.

  • A+ as always Tbetta, most informative article on here. This week my mind is bent from choosing 2 trades out of a possible 10+. The stinkers stinking up my team are Sidebottom, K Jack and Tippett. Apart from that all is excellent.
    Nice work as always Freako!

    Which of these 2 trades would you make?

    (one of these 3 is locked.. have been trying to get pendles in for weeks but a more pressing issue always pops up)

    K Jack > Pendles
    Priddis > Pendles
    Sidebottom > Pendles

    + 1 of:
    (Out of the other 2 from above) > Mundy/Stanton
    Terlich > Grimes
    Buddy > N Roo/Bird
    Tippett > N Roo/Bird

    Mids: Swan, Ablett, ROK, Barlow, K Jack, Pridds, Sidebottom, Titch.

    Leaning towards K Jack > Pendles (Sideass plays GC and GWS next 2) and Terlich > Grimes this week. Then next week Priddis > Mundy, Tippett > N Roo. Thoughts?

    • It’s hard to say – I all comes down to team balance.

      In a vacuum, I’d be looking at dumping Sidey over the other two – but he has that great run coming up. KJack is copping the tag these days, so could be a smart guy to cut your losses on.

      As for the next trade, Terlich to Grimes is a great trade all round.

    • In my opinion, you are mad if you trade Sidey out now.

      For a start, he had 105 on the weekend. Whattya want?

      Second, his ol’ mate Beams returned last week – probs not a coincidence that Sidey scored a ton. Sidey will now be much more likely to slip under opposition radar.

      Third, the seriously uneven fixture Collingwood has been enduring opens right up from here – it isn’t only the next two against the start ups. He plays Bombers again who he had 143 against in Round 5, Sydney where he had 96, and the Roos where he had 106.

      The whole Pies midfield is gonna start going BANG and Sidey will be amongst it.

      I am trading him IN this week – for Danger :)

      Dump Jack

  • You cant be looking at % of teams for uniques . Silly in fact stupid. Half the sides arnt even being managed anymore. The fact the T Mitchell is only in 46% of sides supports this. We had 4 weeks to pick him up before his first price rise, so if every team was still being coached, he should be in 95% of sides. Should be 100% but then youve got a lot of spuds out there.
    Really the only people we should be comparing ourselves to is the people in our league. No ones got a chance in hell now of catching the leaders. So if you havnt been picking through the top side in your league(s) you should start.

    Anyway my side-
    B: Enright Eski Hibberd
    M: JSelwood Cornes Priddis Jack Swallow Martin(bench)
    R: – (should be bringing in Roughy this week)
    F: Stokes Blair(bench)

    • Also tBets .. quality as always. Not sure how Jep Jnr’s or Calvin’s Capts are the most read. The Bullets are the only article I look fwd too every week

    • Some people (like myself) play for overall even when the car (or $50k, whatever) is out of reach – in that situation, overall ownership does matter – although like you said, it’s flawed – show me a better freely available measure and I’ll use it.

      I’ve always said that VS should include a filter for Assistant Coach for Entire Comp, Top 100,000, Top 10,000 and Top 1,000 so we can get a better grasp on 5-owned trends. No luck so far.

  • great article tbetta!

    you mentioning stokes potentially having a day out, and me previously wanting him in my dreamteam, really has me thinking about my trades this week.

    using DPP basically I can either have cox and nicholls in my rucks with stokes up forward or minson and nicholls in my ruck and cox in forward. either way nicholls will become the other next week just curios as to who you think is more of a must have this week, Minson or Stokes?

    Advice from anyone welcome, thanks!

    • also forgot to mention in a must win league match this week opponent has minson but no stokes..

    • Think you’ve answered your own question there – go Stokes. Provided your convinced he was rested and not actually injured with his late withdrawal last week, of course.

      • I was thinking Stokes but just wanted to hear your opinion and you’ve just confirmed it, cheers!

  • Out of these players I have to start one on the ground this week… Tom lee, Brent staker or Tom Nichols I need your thoughts TBETTA and anyone else?

  • Awesome article Tbetta. One of my favourites, look forward to it every week. I would love you thoughts on these trades:

    This week – Stevie J – Winderlich and Ellis – Grimes. $217,400 left.

    Next week: Thurlow – Oxley (Push him to F8 for Staker.) and Staker – Malceski. (Push Terlich to D7.) $157,100 Remaining. (Going by expected price changes on FootyWire.)

    Week after: Winderlich – Stevie J. $37.100 Remaining for other trade. (Going by expected price changes on FootyWire.)

    Cheers!

  • STANTON or O’KEEFFE ???

  • be serious mate

  • Okay…it’s not looking good this week and I need some help.

    I’ve got Hartlett, H.Taylor, Terlich, A.Swallow, Dangerfield (certain trade), K.Martin, NicNat, Z.Clarke and Buddy. (64K in the bank)

    So who’s going?

  • Richie Douglas or Joel Selwood(Low be)

  • I’m going Danger to Enright (using Vlas DPP)and Blicavs to Moller. I need some money in the bank.