NixTrader for R17 – WADA S2 & S0 compliant!

You may have noticed some @DTTalk writers have gone to the mattresses this week to avoid their material being investigated by the Fairfax Media witch hunt.  However, NixTrader is still here to provide non-prohibited performance enhancement to your team.  [Note: No responsibility taken if you attempt to ingest the file without appropriately trained medical personal on standby.  If you do decide to attempt this please get a GoPro camera and upload results direct to youtube].

The situation:

  • 3 rounds (8 trades) till your first DT final.
  • 7 rounds (12 trades) till DT league premiers and overall position finalised.
  • 2 trades this week – use them or lose them.
  • Steve Johnson owners may only get 1 trade each week as he seems to think 1 trade each week should be allocated to him.

Updated Team Averages & Next 5 Games

Updated tables showing DT performance for each team, both for and against, are below.  The right hand panel has the averages for just the last 5 rounds so you can see more recent form.  Each table is ranked according to the number in the shaded column.

R16 Team Avgs FOR

R16 Team Avgs AGST

The table below shows which teams have the most helpful coming fixture for DT scores.  DT Finals games are shown in blue.  Brisbane look interesting – unfortunately I haven’t been able to calculate a CrazyVossy adjustment factor so it could be more tears before bedtime for HanRock owners.

R17 Lead up Games

 

NixTrader Spreadsheet

Changes this week:

  • I’m Stalking watchlist – I’ve added a few more rucks lines to the ruck section.  So be careful if you are copying your watchlist across as the size is different.  I am reluctant to call this an improvement – it just shows there are more dubious ruck prospects than were already in the list.

 

Here is link to download spreadsheet (Excel2007) – NixTrader2013 R17 pub

 

Reminders from previous weeks:

  • The team of the current overall leader is in NixTrader spreadsheet when you download it.  You can look at this team to see if you can learn anything from it, before replacing it with your own team.
  • If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds, you can just select your blocks of players’ names from there and copy and paste them into this round’s spreadsheet.
  • After lockout, you can also use NixTrader to start planning for next week.  Just enter your players’ actual scores in the column for the current round to update your watchlist or trades.
  • Younglings:  if you don’t have Excel2007 software on your device you can still download the file, put it on a usb stick and ask around to find someone with Excel2007 software and ask to borrow their computer for an hour or so.
  • Mac users have reported Brandon Ellis (Richmond) is placed as an Adelaide player in bye and draw tables.  This doesn’t occur in Windows Excel.  Mac users should be aware of this if you add Brandon Ellis to your spreadsheet.

Any comments, questions or suggestions please post below or tweet to @NixTrader.

 

————————– notes below are mostly the same each week ——————————————-

Brief instructions:

  • You only have to enter information into the green cells, the other cells are protected to prevent any errors.
  • Confirm or change Magic Number estimate for the end of next two rounds.  I have put in values for MN, but if you think you know enough about MN to prefer other numbers you can change them.
  • Enter your players using the drop down menu.  In the menu only the players who fit that position are named in full, other players are reduced to 3 letters.  If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds you should be able to select and copy groups of players from there into this spreadsheet.
  • For each player in your team data is pulled up automatically.
  • A projection for that player headed “Points Proj.”.  This is used as default in the calculations.  If a player has played more than 3 games this is their current average; if less than 3 games the projection is calculated from their starting price.
  • There are 2 green cells to enter the actual scores (or your estimates) for your players for the next 2 rounds.  Based on these scores the last other columns calculate the averages, BEs, price change and new prices after the rounds.
  • If you leave any cell blank, the calculation assumes the player gets their 2013 base score for that round – i.e. the score in column headed “Points Proj.” is used as default in the calculations.
  • The player has to play 3 games for their price to change, so if the players miss games their price change won’t happen until after they play 3 games.
  • If one of your players misses a round, put an “n” in the green cell for that round.  The calculations for the next round will then update to take account of this.
  • There is a section to show the next 5 teams that player will face.  At the right of these 5 teams there are 4 percentages.  These show the variation in points and 100 scores that are predicted to come from playing that string of teams, over the next 3 and 5 weeks.  Percentages are based on the number of points and 100s each team has conceded so far this season.  Positive percentage says this run of teams is expected to concede more points and hundreds than average; negative percentage says these teams are likely to concede less points and hundreds than average.

FAQ:

  • Why are these calculations different to other published BEs and valuations?
    • Everyone’s calculations depend on their assumptions about Magic Number, projections of future scores and how they round averages and values.  This spreadsheet should replicate any other published calculations if you make the same projections, including changing the magic number.  However, this spreadsheet is unique in that it allows you to change the estimates to do your own analysis.
  • Tech talk:
    • You need a device and software that supports microsoft excel 2007 spreadsheets to be able to open and use the spreadsheet.  It won’t open on mobiles or tablets unless you have software or apps that support excel files.
    • Even if you have other software that claims to support Excel files, the file still might not work properly, as every excel formula might not be supported.  This current file uses array formulas, I expect many non-excel spreadsheets won’t support array formulas, despite supporting other excel like functions.
    • The file will not operate fully in either Google docs or Skydrive Excel web app.
    • Mac users report that some of the team / bye data for Brandon Ellis is wrong.  This didn’t occur on Windows / PC and was only reported on a Mac.  Be aware of this if you are on a Mac and looking at Brandon Ellis in the spreadsheet.

7 Comments

  • A great resource – thanks Nix

  • So if I use this and find out later I might be disqualified do I get let off and you cop the consequences Nix?

  • Absolutely – if you win the car or any trophies or cash prizes they can be passed on to me if you are disqualified.

  • Great as always, and your introductions are coming into form just in time for the DT Finals… though I have no idea what S2 & S0 are.

    Grimes & D. Martin in for Hartlett & Cox for me.

    I’d be interested in seeing your team Nix…

  • S2 and SO are WADA drug categories. I am an Essendon supporter. Essendon forums have been discussing these in much more detail than the media since Feb. I forgot everyone else may not be that familiar with the shorthand terms.

    My team at end last round …
    Def: Goddard, Heppell, Gibbs, Ibbo, Terlich, Goodes, Clisby, B.Wilson
    Mid: Ablett, Swan, Pendles, Barlow, Griffen, Dangerfield, Priddis, T.Mitchell, S.Mayes, K.Martin.
    Ruck: Cox, Nicholls, Vardy, Osborn,
    For: SJohnson, Bartel, JJKennedy, D.Martin, B.Harvey, Rockliff, Franklin, Staker.

    My big decision for today is who to get to replace Dangerfield

    • For what it’s worth, I’d look at Stanton for Danger. Top 6 average for the season, has a low BE (87) & he plays for Essendon!