Trigger Happy: Round 15

TriggerHappyBig week in Trigger Happy land this week, as unlike last year, it’s round 15 and the article still has a slither of relevance! God bless you 2 trades per week!

Most coaches have something close to a set team, and now it’s about making sure you can maximise points on the field. While this week has been fairly kind to us in terms of players out, I still believe that there will be plenty more carnage in the coming weeks, as teams manage their players towards finals and 2 trades a week just won’t cut it. A good example will be my team which I will use as a case study later. Anywho, trades are still gold so make sure they don’t go to waste! I still think there is merit on making sure you have a squad of players and some solid bench options on each line who could potentially save your derriere!

 

Defenders

Plenty of defenders continue to roll out of our teams, but it’s more due to a decent downgrade in Mitchell Clisby. Our D6/7’s in Vlastuin and Goodes are popular outs while the kid with 2 surnames Jackson Thurlow is the most popular out and my BFF Birchall is still being filtered out of teams. Gibbs and Ibbotson continue to be popular ins – anyone else worth considering?

Hamish Hartlett  $383,000, b/e 70 – As predicted earlier in the season, Port Adelaide player’s fantasy scores seem to follow their winning streaks throughout the season. Can they keep it up? HH has averaged 92 in his last 3 and is pretty cheap….

Bob Murphy $429,100 b/e 92 Looks like you can teach this old dog new tricks! Hasn’t gone under 75 in his last 7 games and a 3 game average of 97. One player if you dare to be different, or don’t take notice of players age when trading (or drafting).

Corey ‘Boris’ Enright  $440,700 b/e 113 Boris has been sneaky this season. Very sneaky. One of the first backmen picked in past years, many thought his best fantasy days were behind him, but I think not quite yet. Enright has flown somewhat under the radar this year and while his average of 92 is very solid, his consistency rating (CR) of 8.9 is outstanding! It’s the best of any defender averaging over 90.

 

Midfielders

Despite being the largest % of players in our teams, all is pretty quiet in the midfield for once. The joey Brad McKenzie comes streaming into teams to sit on the pine at M10 and Old Man Boyd leaves most teams with the third jaw/cheek injury in as many weeks (Jaws III). Ryan Griffen seems an apt replacement and one of the most popular trades of the week.

Ryan O’Keefe $516,000 b/e 103: 116 over the last 5 rounds? And he has Melbourne and GWS coming up? wowee! averaging 7 tackles a game this season which is fast becoming a important KPI for any DTer in my team. Side not is that GWS didnt let NM get a DT ton last week. A new trend or just a fresh team after the bye? we’ll see this week.

Jobe Watson $459,800 b/e 70 – After a few er, lean games, Jobe returned to form last week in emphatic fashion, quicker than you can say boo. Has not had that ‘Classic Jobe’ consistency this year (18.6) but you get the feeling the more pressure that is put on him, the better he will get. Well priced for what he can give you.

Andrew Gaff $319,b/e 1: Straight out of the bargain bin this one.  Has been a huge disappointment this season in both DT and real AFL but has produced some decent scores in the last 2 games (108 and 97). Averaged 86 last year and many thought he could take the next step. Has recorded a ton on the crows, just don’t expect him to lay many tackles, with just 20 for the season.

 

Rucks 

 

Coaches are starting to farewell ‘The Blitz’. What started as a bit of a giggle of M3 at the start of the season turned into a pretty decent cash cow. A break even of 67 would be touch and go for Blicavs this week, and the inclusion of Dawson Simpson into the team would not help his cause at all. Farewell Blitz, I think we may see you again in a few years.

Jarryd Roughead ($453,800, b/e 72)  has been mentioned in these pages before, but with some question marks over him continuing to dominate. Well he put that to bed over the last month. Hasn’t gone below 83 since round 6 and now has the second highest average of any ruckman.

 

Forwards

Nick Reiwoldt is a surprise out this week, and could catalyze the trend of players getting managed until finals. Perth is the most isolated city in the work after all.  At least the  saints came out and said he was just rested, and didn’t make-up an injury like an ankle or something. Stevie J is still a week away and boy how long is a week in football?  If you are looking for an upgrade in the forward line this week, make sure you have Johnson, Bartel , Martin, and Stokes  before considering anyone as they have proven to be the most consistently high-scoring forwards for the season.  Once Reiwoldt is back in next week, it gets pretty slim . A lot of coaches are talking about giving Roy’s boy Rockliff the flick , but to who? taking out an inconsistent forward to bring in another inconsistent forward   doesn’t seem like a good trade to me . I’m sorry but I just can’t bring myself to recommend Colin Sylvia.

Stubby’s holders and folders

Brent Macaffer – If Joe Daniher was playing and you wanted to make some cash I would say fair enough, but he isn’t. Macaffer has great job security and will be a great F7 for the remainder of the season and with a 5 round average of 81 he is going nowhere in my team – HOLD

Nick Reiwoldt – Has only been rested because the trip is too long! HOLD

Nick Vlastuin and Brett Goodes – Thanks for your services guys, but Mitchell Clisby has more upside. See you a couple of years – FOLD

Shaun Burgoyne – back to his Mr Fix it ways, I knew he was too good to be true – FOLD

 

The Ty Vickery award

 

SwannyI never thought I would see this bloke in here. Everything pointed to Swanny having a massive game last week but he looked more like a pig than a fantasy pig. Was the 4th most traded in person and a popular captain choice but was just piss-poor timing really. Let’s all hope Swanny can bounce back.

 

 

 

 

 

Running review

 

The last week for The Running Man was genuinely horrible. Having to patch up the long-term injuries of Scooter and Birchall, I had no choice but to hold Johnson and Barlow. I was still confident of a good score with McKenzie (D6), Vlastuin (M8) and ‘my boy’ Ben Kennedy (F6) as my last players on each respective line. Fast forward to Sunday night and I have a paltry score of 1944. Jelwood got tagged out of the game, BK was a sub and Vlaustin was a late out. I was lucky enough to have Hrovat as an emergency for a very valuable 64 points. At least I didn’t put Swanny captain. While this can all be put down to mostly bad luck, I still think there is a lot of merit to make sure you always have as many players available all the time and mitigate any damage. With Barlow and Vlastuin missing in the midfield my M10 had to play. If he didn’t I wouldn’t of even cracked 1900. This week I am looking to bring in Clisby and Stokes for Vlastuin and Staker. As I am bereft of Sydney Swans players I’m not yet sure on my captain choice. Crowley’s * job on Jelwod is still haunting me from last week and with Barlow having a game off I’m not too sure. Maybe I just keep calm and lock Swan?

 

Big week in actual AFL this week and hopefully also turns into big fantasy scores.

 

Looking forward to meeting a few peeps next Thursday at the live show, come up and say hi and tell me how $hit my trading philosophies are!

 

Alternatively tell me on twitter  @jimbobholder

 

87 Comments

  • thanks for the write up this week Jimmy! and good luck to you

  • Great article again JimBob! How is the Consistency Rating figured out?

    • Isn’t it mathematically just a standard ‘Standard Deviation’, that’s been renamed Consistency by the dream team site? It appears to be.

      • Yeah I’d say so. Not many other measures of consistency that I know off…

  • Zorko to Stokes or Vlastuin to Ibbo???

  • Top stuff as always mate! Great read :)

  • Kreuzer would be a good mention in rucks. Gets lots of kicks for a ruckman and a 99 5round avg. I’m actually trading out Macaffer for Kreuzer via cox, and using an inconsistent/misused player like Rockliff or Franklin at f7.

    I’m also keeping Goodes and Vlastuin this week until players like Hanley (re)prove himself, so I guess i’m going against your advice; my plummeting ranking probably means this isn’t wise.

    • I was just about to write something similar inthefog, if you take out Kreuzer’s injured game and sub game coming back from injury, he is actually the HIGHEST avg ruckmen in the comp! For me it is a logical choice to give Blicavs the boot from R2 ( heis been good ) and bring in the big Kroooozzzz!!

  • Can Someone Please help so stuck on what backman to bring in 446k or under. I have narrowed down to a few people

    As it stands my backline is currently: Goddard Gibbs Malceski Hartlett Terlich and Scotland for whom I will be replacing with the 440k person

    Enright – will get rested later in the season.

    Johnson – Don’t no if he can be trusted with ross lyon

    Houli – Was going well not so much now.

    Waters – The one Im looking at mostly becase back from injury and back to back 85+ scores

    McCkenzie- not to sure

    Hibberd- Could also be good but no to sure

    Really leaning towards Thoughs would be grealty appreciated

    • id go Bachelor Houli, he’s a gun, POD and all round machine! wont get rested, will get 80+ for the rest of the year

      • Cheers Im just a bit undecided, does anyone know if he got a tag against St.Kilda ?

        • Don’t think he did. I just don’t think he saw a lot of footy

    • Get Houli! Houli is beast and should average higher then most other options you have provided except Hibberd and maybe Enright.

  • do i start o’meara or tom mitchell on field?

  • Can’t believe nobody is considering Tippett. 373k, scored 95 in the pouring rain last week and plays melb and gws in next 2.

    • Gah. Goodes > Clisby is a lock. Best option for other trade?

      1) Mcaffer > Tippett
      2) Mcaffer > Stokes
      3) Blicavs > Leuy
      4) Blicavs > Cox

    • considered and sold. Staker to Tippett locked in. A good chance to steal the march on some people if he goes well, which he should, given he’s only gonna get rolls royce delivery from one of the comps best midfields

  • Enright for Thurlow
    Griffen for Goodes

    Are they good swaps, i still have Rocky on the field and Terlich and Zac Clarke

    • Mate i’ll go swan > z.dawson. Put the c on dawson he’s due to ton up against the saints.

    • Maybe look at someone other than Enright may get a rest later end of the season

  • If I have Goodes/Vlas/Thurlow/Burgoyne, who should I downgrade to Clisby?

  • I thought it was Crowley, rather than Raines, that did the job on jelwood last week?

  • It was – but that does not detract from the usefulness of a great article

  • Who to bring in and why ?
    Out of

    Waters
    Enright
    Houli
    Hibberd ?

    • I like Waters…injuries..the numbers are good

    • Get in Enright or Hibberd.
      Hibberd is reliable and has a great run coming up. Lock!

  • ellis to ibbotson or
    omeara to okeefe

    also if ben kennedy isnt the sub who do i play on my field out of staker and kennedy

  • My team:

    DEF: Goddard, Heppell, Duffield, Gibbs, Vlastuin, Clisby (J.Webster, J.Thurlow)

    MIDS: G.Ablett, D.Swan, M.Barlow, T.Cotchin, N.Fyfe, P.Dangerfield, K.Jack, T.Mitchell (N.Kommer, N.Hrovat)

    RUCKS: D.Cox, M.Blicavs (T.Nicholls, D.Currie)

    FWDS: J.Kennedy, J.Bartel, Martin, L.Franklin, Rockliff, B.Staker (S.Johnoson, S.Rowe)

    $420,600 in the bank

    Trade Options:

    Vlastuin to Ibo, Leaves me with $313,700 in the bank

    For my second trade its looking like i’ll have to trade Out Thurlow or Webster, Not sure who to bring in theres not really any downgrade options i already have clisby got him last week paid off well :) if i upgrade it wont leave me with alot a cash to spend next week. thoughts how i good go about using my second trade??

    Thoughts on my team overall? Trade thoughts and suggestions??

  • Great write up Jim Bob.
    Let’s hope that Swan never sees the Ty Vickery award again!

    • lets. we’ll give him the C to show our faith?

      • The other plus side is the shot of Swanny’s missus! if he gets a mention again, i’ll use the same pic!

      • No never again!!!

        haha – brought in Swanny into my team for the first time ever – after three years. YES, that’s right – EVER.

        …and made him my debut captain

        One of my worst DT moves ever.

        add to that the second trade of getting Boyd in – gets injured at 90. So really, a bad double trade + captain’s selection….damn lazy fat pig swan

  • Nice read Jimbob.

    Barlow, ROK or Griffen? And Hep D or Ibbo? Money not an issue.

    Thinking ROK & Ibbo because of having Hibberd & Goddard already.

  • Waters, T.McKenzie, Hartlett or Hibberd?

    • Great read aswell!

    • Hartlett and Waters are on a lot of never again lists for most. I have been disappointed since bringing Hibberd in a couple of weeks ago but he may turn it around. Can’t comment on McKenzie

      • I have had hartett from pretty much the start got very frustrating at stages but with port in form he has been playing on the ball and his scoring is lifting. Myself I am bringing in Waters this week as a Point of Difference and he is very capable to average 90+ If he does get injured that is what the 44 trades are fo. Hibberd can be good but his scoring hasnt been the best in the last few and with port in form could be tough again. McKenzie is very consistent and can be good as well In order I’d pick them

        1.Waters
        2.Hibberd
        3.Hartlett
        4. McKenzie
        THeyare my opinions

  • Nice Article Jimob. Who to get out of griffen and watson. A little worried about GWS tagging Griff especially with Palmer back in?

  • DEF: Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Ibbotson, Scotland, Vlastuin (Laird, Clisby)
    MID: Swan, Ablett, Pendlebury, Barlow, Jack, Priddis, Cotchin (Mitchell, Martin)
    RUC: Cox, Kreuzer (Blicavs, Nicholls)
    FWD: Bartel, Johnson, Franklin, Rockliff, Kennedy, Naitanui (Macaffer, Staker)

    170k remaining
    I was initially thinking Vlastuin to Enright and Martin to Mckenzie leaving me with 202k then next week I can trade macaffer and Scotland to premiums. What do you guys think I should do and who should I get?

  • Should I play laird or Clisby this week?

  • ibbotson or enright?

  • Strongly considering dumping Ellis ahead of Vlastuin this week. I doubt Ellis will out-score Vlastuin by more than 10pts/game (on average) over the remainder of the year. Given that Ellis costs $80k more than Vlastuin, the extra cash corresponds to an extra 27pts/game elsewhere. Ellis is also likely to drop by $10k more than Vlastuin this week.

  • Thanks for these articles JimBob! Answered a few of my questions that I WAS gonna have to answer these next few weeks.
    Just touching on something you said, Goodes and vlastuin were both folds in your opinion. However, i need to keep one of them (as D7, the other is being upgraded this week), which one should I keep, and which one has to go?

  • Titchell or JPK on field this week?

  • I have Pittard & Thurlow on DEF bench. Was originally dropping Thurlow but now wondering if I should let him rot at D8 and axe Pittard instead? This would force me to use Clisby as my emergency, but would pocket me an extra $50,000.

    Pittard’s B/E is 73 this week. Thoughts?

    • Who do I have to root to get a reply around here? I see why the DTTalk boys call it ‘generation my’

  • Brodie Murdoch possible downgrade option for caff??? Maybe???

  • which 2 should i play out of these 3 T.mitchell JPK and selwood

  • Who should I play on the ground out of O’Meara, Crouch and T.Mitchell?

  • I’m doing Pittard -> Clisby this week, no-brainer.

    But I can’t decide out of Goodes, Vlas and Scotland to upgrade to Ibbo.

    I’m actually leaning towards Scotland (I know he’s injured this week but had been considering sitting him as a D7)

    DEF will be Gibbs, Goddard, Ibbotson, Hartlett, Terlich, Vlas/Goodes/Scotland, Clisby

    • Is it still a no brainer if you also have Thurlow? I’m leaning towards trading Pittard with his B/E at 73. But atleast he is getting games.

      To answer your question I’d probably take a look at their B/E’s. I’d be leaning towards trading Scotland if you can’t field 6 defenders, but if you can then I think Vlastuin will lose a lot of cash this week with his high BE.

      • Yeah, it’s not the cash, it’s moreso who I think might end up scoring/averaging more out of those 3, if they leak cash but I’m keeping them on the bench I’m not as fussed. It just seems Goodes/Vlas are looking at averaging more than Scotland at the moment.

  • Fyfe to ROK
    or
    Deledio to ROK
    deledio been poor this year, fyfe has been solid but now with Mundy, Barlow and Sandilands returning, he may begin to dominate against a pretty good draw. thoughts?

  • Should i go Ben Kennedy to Clisby via staker dpp then brett goodes or nick vlastuin to gibbs, or Vlastuin or Goodes to Gibbs and have Clisby as a d6 cause thats what vlastuin or goodes will be

    • i wouldnt be to sure having clisby on your field… i have him on me bench just to cash up…

      i would trade vlas out of him and goodes only on the fact that vlas has a high BE im not sure he will get so will lose you money and Goodes BE is reachable for him i think this week… can off load him next if you want. which is what i am planning on doing.

  • boyd > griffen, jack, ROK, or anyone else?

    midfield currently consists of: ablett, swan, pendles, barlow, stanton, boyd, priddis, mitchell

    • jack or ROK… i would go jack tho

      • yee dont like griff at all? reason?

        • dont get me wrong he has been scoring very well… just think he will fall very soon and he will get the number 1 tagger in each team now that boyd isnt there.

          not sure what he was scoring when boyd was gone.

          plus i think the swans have a better road ahead with matches.

          • Griffens 2013 AVG with Boyd is 108 and without Boyd it jumps to 117.5

  • Should I go Griffen… I’m not sure it’s either him or GAJ.