NixTrader for R15

nixtraderThe past week has been interesting one.  After 3 years the ALP finally got the reverse trades button to work.  Orica-Green WEdge showed the Socceroos how to really “park the bus”.  And we learned why AFL players have been growing beards all season …  to protect their glass jaws.   So it’s on to round 15, and NixTrader spreadsheet is here to help you work out your 2 best trades.

Round Review

Another round, more outs and still outs.  Another round where 2 trades a week is never enough.  Get used to it … every week there will be 2 or more of your best 22 unavailable.  If you are planning to cover holes with just your 2 trades you should go to the doctor and get some prescription sedatives.

I tweeted during the week suggesting that we should be changing our thinking of how we judge a good DT coach.  Previously it was all about overall finish – e.g. top 3,000 finish meant you knew what you are doing.  However, this year anyone who is a grand finalist in a top 1,000 league will have done an impressive job.  Team scores will get very close, and head-to-head matches are going to be tense – getting into the top 4 for a double chance is very valuable.

Updated Team Averages

I’ve split the team averages table into 2 separate tables – For and Against.  The right hand panel has the averages for just the last 5 rounds so you can see more recent form.

R14 Team Avgs FOR

R14 Team Avgs AGST

A couple of teams have gotten significantly worse in conceding points – Gold Coast and Essendon.  Halfway through the season Gold Coast were conceding less points than Sydney.  Melbourne are conceding a lot less under Craig, but it will take a few more weeks to get the last Neeld games out of the average.

The table below shows which teams have the most helpful fixture for DT scores.

R15 Lead up Games

 

 

NixTrader Spreadsheet

Changes this week:

  • I have hidden and greyed out a few things that referred to Byes as these are no longer necessary.
  • The I’m Stalking watchlist has been changed to remove the bye groups, and the position were groups made a bit bigger.  So be careful if you normally just copy and paste your watchlist from last round as it will not match exactly.

 

Here is link to download spreadsheet (Excel2007) – NixTrader2013 R15 pub

 

Reminders from previous weeks:

  • The team of the current overall leader is in NixTrader spreadsheet when you download it.  You can look at this team to see if you can learn anything from it, before replacing it with your own team.
  • If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds, you can just select your blocks of players’ names from there and copy and paste them into this round’s spreadsheet.
  • After lockout, you can also use NixTrader to start planning for next week.  Just enter your players’ actual scores in the column for the current round to update your watchlist or trades.
  • Younglings:  if you don’t have Excel2007 software on your device you can still download the file, put it on a usb stick and ask around to find someone with Excel2007 software and ask to borrow their computer for an hour or so.
  • Mac users have reported Brandon Ellis (Richmond) is placed as an Adelaide player in bye and draw tables.  This doesn’t occur in Windows Excel.  Mac users should be aware of this if you add Brandon Ellis to your spreadsheet.

Any comments, questions or suggestions please post below or tweet to @NixTrader.

Post below how your bye preparations are going and your average score forecast, this might be useful for other coaches. Also post if you think an otherwise good trade is being assessed badly by the formulas.

————————– notes below are mostly the same each week ——————————————-

Brief instructions:

  • You only have to enter information into the green cells, the other cells are protected to prevent any errors.
  • Confirm or change Magic Number estimate for the end of next two rounds.  I have put in values for MN, but if you think you know enough about MN to prefer other numbers you can change them.
  • Enter your players using the drop down menu.  In the menu only the players who fit that position are named in full, other players are reduced to 3 letters.  If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds you should be able to select and copy groups of players from there into this spreadsheet.
  • For each player in your team data is pulled up automatically.
  • A projection for that player headed “Points Proj.”.  This is used as default in the calculations.  If a player has played more than 3 games this is their current average; if less than 3 games the projection is calculated from their starting price.
  • There are 2 green cells to enter the actual scores (or your estimates) for your players for the next 2 rounds.  Based on these scores the last other columns calculate the averages, BEs, price change and new prices after the rounds.
  • If you leave any cell blank, the calculation assumes the player gets their 2013 base score for that round – i.e. the score in column headed “Points Proj.” is used as default in the calculations.
  • The player has to play 3 games for their price to change, so if the players miss games their price change won’t happen until after they play 3 games.
  • If one of your players misses a round, put an “n” in the green cell for that round.  The calculations for the next round will then update to take account of this.
  • There is a section to show the next 5 teams that player will face.  At the right of these 5 teams there are 4 percentages.  These show the variation in points and 100 scores that are predicted to come from playing that string of teams, over the next 3 and 5 weeks.  Percentages are based on the number of points and 100s each team has conceded so far this season.  Positive percentage says this run of teams is expected to concede more points and hundreds than average; negative percentage says these teams are likely to concede less points and hundreds than average.

FAQ:

  • Why are these calculations different to other published BEs and valuations?
    • Everyone’s calculations depend on their assumptions about Magic Number, projections of future scores and how they round averages and values.  This spreadsheet should replicate any other published calculations if you make the same projections, including changing the magic number.  However, this spreadsheet is unique in that it allows you to change the estimates to do your own analysis.
  • Tech talk:
    • You need a device and software that supports microsoft excel 2007 spreadsheets to be able to open and use the spreadsheet.  It won’t open on mobiles or tablets unless you have software or apps that support excel files.
    • Even if you have other software that claims to support Excel files, the file still might not work properly, as every excel formula might not be supported.  This current file uses array formulas, I expect many non-excel spreadsheets won’t support array formulas, despite supporting other excel like functions.
    • The file will not operate fully in either Google docs or Skydrive Excel web app.
    • Mac users report that some of the team / bye data for Brandon Ellis is wrong.  This didn’t occur on Windows / PC and was only reported on a Mac.  Be aware of this if you are on a Mac and looking at Brandon Ellis in the spreadsheet.

4 Comments

  • Excellent as usual Nix – this is really good stuff

  • Nick

    Many thanks, as always.

    Loved your intro paragraph too!

  • Love your work Nix; my job is spreadsheet-heavy, so NixTrader allows me to play dreamteam during quiet times at work without a blatantly obvious, colourful dreamteam home page revealing the fact that I’m slacking off. Thanks!

  • Thanks for the changes to the format Nix; now happening on Office 2003 again. +1 on Nick’s call re first para, too… MH-S