Trigger Happy: Round 14

TriggerHappyAfter a 2 week break I feel revitalised and rejuvenated and ready to tackle the home straight  that is Dream Team 2013.  I’ll do my best to not drown my sorrows after the eagles loss while I write this…..

 

Defenders

 

Looks like the defenders were scared of being out of the spotlight for too long. At the beginning of the season I was quite up and about over my pick of Grant Birchall and boy oh boy, how the mighty have fallen. Round 5 he was close to the most traded player in and a mere 8 weeks later, he is the most traded player out. Not only did he put up scores that would make a rookie look bad, he likely cost some people up to $200k when they now have to trade him out…the only positive thing I can see in Birchall, is that he injured himself, removing all doubt in whether to trade or not.

Bryce Gibbs ($449,800 b/e  42) – The most traded in player this week, everyone is jumping back on after that ‘1 week hamstring’ injury a while ago. Sits 5th in overall average and a no brainer for the rest of the season. There’s a reason its a vanilla trade and ironically, the opposite trade was probably the most popular 2 months ago.

Michael Johnson ($439, 800, b/e 65) – While Garrick Ibbotson (still can’t believe I am writing this) and the Duff Man take all the limelight in the fremantle backline, Johnson has been quietly going about his business. A 5 round average of 103, he is playing a mopping up/intercepting role down back for the dockers and a cracking POD (In 1.68% of teams). I say it too many times, I still don’t trust a team coached by Ross Lyon. They do have a dream run coming home though, but does that mean they won’t see the ball as much in the backline?

Trent ‘The Cannon’ McKenzie ($406,700/b/e 52) Another quiet achiever this season who has been going quietly about his business with an amazingly consistent season, with just 1 score under 80 in 8 games. Yes he has had a 80, 81 and 82, but hey, stats can say whatever you want them to. Bias stats aside, he’s still consistent, and a pretty good price. Last 3 round average of 98, can he come home with a wet sail?

 

Midfielders

 

Did anyone beat me  in the  $hit-out-of-luck competition and bring in Barlow and Scooter last week?

 

Barlow should only be a week injury but Scooter Selwood is an auto trade when given a 4-6 week prognosis to return. The rest of the midfielders appear to be business as usual.

Scott Pendlebury ($510,600 b/e 77) – This is probably a stupid recommendation, but Pendles is only in 33% of teams, which means 2/3 coaches don’t have him. If you don’t have him, you are missing out. Big time. His lowest score this year is 86, which is pretty amazing really. Is in Calvin’s Captains most weeks but still goes ‘under the radar’ a bit compared to Gazza and Swan. With a low b/e this week, he should be a priority to get in.

 

Matthew Boyd ($533,900 b/e 78) Old man Boyd who apparently has old man calves (Like Roy). Well if old man calves give you a 3 round average of 136, well sign me up. Took a little while to get going at the start of the season but now appears to be in full flight and probably the cheapest he will be for the rest of the season. Let’s hope the Bulldogs don’t take a cotton wool approach and give him a game off if he gets some niggles along the way.

 

Joel Selwood $455,900 b/e 39 For the thrifty coach this week we have Joel Selwood. An absolute bargain compared to his potential output, I do get scared because he gets a hard tag every week due to his disposal efficiency. I say this, but  I have brought him in this week as I like their draw for the rest of the year, playing only 3 of the top 8 sides (I’m predicting port to not stay in the 8). Will get a Crowley tag this week, lets hope he doesn’t get bruised too much and miss some game.  Despite getting a hard tag, I love the fact he goes the other way and is averaging 5.7 tackles (close to 24 points) a game which means he only needs 25 disposals for a DT ton.

 

Rucks

 

Not much happening in ruckland, will Roughead continue to kick bags of goals? Buddy who? let’s move on.

 

Forwards

The most asked question of the week – to hold or fold Stevie J? 6% of trades involve Stevie J being hip and shouldered out of teams. Similar to Tbetta’s view, I am hesitant to trade out a fit player if I have injured players sitting on the pine, and think that 2 weeks in the bigger picture can be dealt with. For once, I was happy to see a player in the ‘out’ column for the teams, and that was Joe Daniher. See you next week mate!

 

Travis Cloke ($443,200 b/e 47) I don’t usually condone key position players but I think Cloke could be exception to the rule. Has Port Adelaide, Carlton, Adelaide, Gold Coast and GWS so can continue to his recent good form. A maximum of 147 and minimum of 54, hang on!

 

Jimmy Bartel is always a good option, but with his recent good form, you’ll have to pay $500,000 now! Shouldn’t lose too much if you want to sideways him to Stevie J.

 

Stubby’s Holders and Folders

Brett Goodes – not too sure the severity of the wrist injury but a handy D7 for the rest of the season – HOLD

Stevie J – 2 weeks suspension is really annoying, but I still hate trading players out with a plan to bring them in later. Then again maybe I just need a better crystal ball – HOLD

Michael Barlow – was a chance to play this week and should be back next week. The form player of the competition and a cheek bone shouldn’t stop him from losing too much fitness – HOLD

 

The Ty Vickery Award

Ellis This one hurts a lot.  Brandon Ellis was likely brought into a lot of teams with the view as a new age  premium back. A back who plays out of position and is very far down the pecking order for a tag. With scores of  128, 155 and 112 coming into round 13, his score of 60 was a bit of a let down. The Richmond v Bulldogs game was a bit funny in general, with Richmond winning by 10 goals, yet only having one player eclipse the ton for the game. Obviously the week that I put the C on previous TVA recipient Dustin Martin. I was warned.

 

 

 

Running Review

despite a horror round 13 where I only scored 1563 thanks to lack of contributions from Ellis, Vlastuin, Hrovat, Webster, Birchall and Captain Martin, I managed to jump up about 1800 spots to 1700th overall over the bye rounds. This week I am dealing with the LTI’s of Scooter and Birchall while holding Barlow and Stevie J and welcoming into my team Joel Selwood and Garrick Ibbotson. Really worried about Ibbotson, I now imagine that he will do this for the rest of the season. I’m  getting somewhere close to a finished team, now just looking to consolidate my bench cover, as I’m certain that we will have more carnage than 2 trades can cover on a regular basis, thus building a squad of players to minimise the impact.

 

Do you have a strategy for the back half of the season? Or you just going to wing it?

 

Discuss it all below!

 

As always give me a follow on Twitter @jimbobholder

64 Comments

  • Awesome article Jimbob, man I have missed your articles during the bye rounds. Keep up the great work.

  • Great article mate.

    Who should I put on the field. Need 2 of these
    Laird, crouch, b.kennedy, staker

  • Trade B.Goodes who isnt playing or Vlaustin with the high b/e. Plenty of bench cover

    • i have the same dilemma. considering they are both on my bench (mid and def) I am leaning to vlastuin as he will leak 20-30k over next 2 weeks… not what you want from a rookie I am looking to upgrade

  • If we had to pick up one and one only to play this week who would you get Clisby or Hunter? I am thinking Hunter will score more?

  • Who to put on field for Steve j.

    Staker or b.kennedy?

    Also will laird score more then crouch?

    • I’m in the same boat. I’m going with B Kennedy. Who knows re your 2nd question? Also, love your work JimBob.

      • +1 with Kennedy. I think he’s a better chance of a good score. Bris playing Hawks, not sure Staker will figure too strongly.

  • Thanks for the read Jim Bob. guys should i start Terlich vs dogs or Hanley vs hawks this wk?

    • I reckon Terlich. Rather depressing when a supposed premo is considered for bench duty with a rookie on field… He’s gone first chance I get.

  • Nice one JB. Yep, I did the aforementioned Barlow & Scott Selwood double upgrade last week. Out goes Scotty, for Montagna. Barlow has a sit on the side for a week. Birchall makes way for McKenzie (who surely can’t do any worse).

  • Ah Jimbob you legend. you answered everyone of my questions in your article.

    So should I trade in Boyd or Jelwood this week, and is it too early to cull Staker?

  • You lost me at “port to not stay in the 8” mate :)

    Nice article, came to exactly the same conclusions on most players.

    My one piece of “wisdom” on trading out premiums is: if they tonned up keep them, they wont lose $, if they did a calf in Q1 and got 30 then consider the low BE alternatives.

    cheers

  • Who to get in: Cloke, Ibbotson or McKenzie??

  • So I’m thinking I want to get Boyd in this week. To do so I have to trade one Of Barlow, Hrovat, Staker, Bennedy, Rowe*.

    I don’t want to trade Rowe, as that would leave Bennedy on the ground.

    I am keen to keep Barlow, as that means mids complete when he is back with Titchell to cover in meantime.

    I’m leaning towards Staker, although he hasn’t ripened yet.

  • Keeping Barlow, hoping he’s out for only the week.
    Have 50k in the bank
    My dilemma is do I trade Stevie J to a Stokes and then upgrade Birchall to Gibbs

    Or do I keep Stevie J on the pine and then downgrade a Goodes to a rookie in defence and then upgrade Birchall to Gibbs?

    • If you are focusing on overall definitely have to trade Stevie J, too much money to spend 2 weeks on the pine.

    • Definitely the former.

      I don’t understand keeping star players for 2 weeks on the bench…you are likely giving up 120 points over those two weeks playing Macaffer/Clisby versus Stokes/Gibbs….

      Also, just make sure you’re in a position to trade SJ back in, in 2 weeks time.

      • You are wasting trades. Side way trading doesn’t improve your team. If you hold Stevey j when he comes back in two weeks you will have Gibbs as well. The 2 trades per week has really thrown some peoples perception of how to play DT. Only instance i would get rid of Stevey J is if you were going for an eliminator win or if you needed to win every game from here on out for the season!

      • The last sentence in your comment is the hard part. Get rid of a star for 2 weeks, nek minnit some more carnage but Zeus (the dt god – clearly) and you are without SJ with issues to fix.

  • you say you scored 1563 and went up 1800 spots ??????

    i scored 1562 and went down 900 spots

    dont make sense to me …….

    • “I managed to jump up about 1800 spots to 1700th overall over the bye rounds” Not just round 13.

      • oh ok my mistake bud , i went up 5401 spots over the byes to 4686

        • I made the same mistake initially which is why I commented, nice ranking improvement over the byes

  • Top stuff JimmyBob, they’re all great options for each position…
    Thoughts on adding Scott Thompson to the mid list for the thrifty?
    Both he and Jelwood 450k, avg 95+ and have half a dozen tons this season.
    Both also avg 95+ against at least 5 upcoming opponents and both play only 4 top 8 teams.
    The one tipping point in favour of Thommo is he has cracked 140 against these opponents 5 times compared to Jelwood’s 3… despite all this analysis, I still can’t make a decision!

    • Yea but Jelwood is in his prime, Thommo is old.

      • Jelwood easily. Plays 7 games at Skilled Stadium if I remember correctly in the second half of the year. Averages 110+ there and has Melbourne in 2 weeks.

      • Jelwood DT rank 18
        Thommo DT rank 22
        Seems the old guy is keeping up with those in their prime.
        Glad I didn’t let age stop me from getting Boyd a couple of weeks ago…

  • Hi guys,

    Have been struggling to make a decision all week about who to trade in for Stevie J.

    Options are: N Riewoldt, Cloke, Stokes or possbily Sylvia

    Thoughts?

  • Thanks for your comments before RJforBrownlow, I’m going Stokes if I do the Stevie J downgrade. He’ll get even more time in the midfield with Stevie J out I would have thought

    • Thanks for the replies, have initially been leaning towards Stokes but it will leave me with 3 Geelong premo FWDs when Stevie J returns. I think I’ll stick with that for now though because they have Melbourne in 2 weeks.

  • Just read ‘TRIGGER HAPPY’ and now Im not too sure as to who to get, Heath Shaw or Trent McKenzie?

  • Play Blicavs or Nicholls on the ground?

  • Arrgghh…

    Johnson -> Stokes/Cloke (must trade this week, Daniher was my only backup)

    THEN

    Birchall -> Gibbs OR
    Barlow -> Boyd

    If Birchall isn’t traded then Pittard is on the field.

    If Barlow isn’t traded then Crouch is on the field.

    HELP!

  • Over the next few weeks was looking at trading out vla, Dwyer, omeara and blicavs and in that order and was looking at bringing in Mckenzie, zac Clarke, swan and hunter in that order. Do you think I should be trying to get swan this week rather than next week it is just that I would have to get hunter this week rather than Mckenzie or Clarke, also it may mean next week I might not be able to afford them both either. Do you think both Mckenzie and Clarke are keepers for rest of season. I don’t want to trade out Barlow or Johnson as team will be complete in 2 weeks time so need them.

  • Thanks for the article.

    I hope that J Selwood works out for you, but I don’t think he’ll ever be umpired as favourably again as he was a year ago when he was still being rewarded for headbutting opponents’ knees. These days I can see him being an SC specialist and not the best option for DT. Just my opinion.

  • robbie gray or caff on the ground? im leaning towards gray..

  • Vlastuin will go better than Hrovat this week wont he?

    • who knows?
      vlaustin has been good this year except for last weekbut hrovat has melbourne this week

  • do i get rid of thurlow for bartel/stokes (via staker) or go vlastuin for enright/ibbo? if i do the thurlow trade i will have to play vlastuin on the field.

  • Nice read Jimbob … while I don’t want to wish you ill, I had the same concerens about Ibbo and ended up going with Macca. My decision was helped because my toughest opponent this week (predicted to beat me by about 30 pts) has a similar team to me and given he had Ibbo I leant towards McKensie for a POD which I’m pretty happy with (Macca on fire … Ibbo not doing well away from Subi). The video of the turtle had me in stitches and I won’t be able to watch Ibbo play without risk of ripping an abdominal laughing for the rest of the year. Cheers :)

    • Im backing my boy ibbo, he got 96 at metricon in better playing conditions than the tough slugfest draw at the scg (65) and in the wet and windy at aami (69) hopefully its solid weather at the cattery tomoro night